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2026 Everest Trends with Steve House, Alan Arnette, and Martin Zohr
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In this Everest 2026 season recap, Steve House talks with Alan Arnette (Summit Coach) and Uphill Athlete coach Martin Zohr about a record-breaking year on the mountain: roughly 1,008 South Col summits (up from 891 in 2019), nearly 500 Nepal permits issued, nine straight days of delays from a massive leaning serac in the Khumbu Icefall, and a brief government ban on drone use that was reversed within days. They cover five climbing deaths (well below historical averages), the shift toward "flash" expeditions using higher-flow supplemental oxygen and pre-acclimatization on trekking peaks instead of traditional rotations, the stalled 7,000-meter prerequisite bill in Nepal's parliament, drones and helicopters replacing some Sherpa load-carrying, the unclear status of xenon use by climbers, Bartek Ziemkiewicz's no-oxygen ski descents of both Everest and Lhotse, and Nepal's roughly $8.5 million in permit revenue that largely bypasses local communities. The conversation closes with training advice — emphasizing a year or more of structured aerobic-first preparation, VAM tracking, and a mountaineering apprenticeship through progressively higher peaks — plus predictions for the 2027 season, including possible Tibet-side reopening.
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Transcript
Everest 2026 Season Overview
00:00:00
Speaker
Some people told me they spent three hours trying to go from just beyond the Cornish Traverse to the top of the Hillary step. We should take about half an hour.
00:00:18
Speaker
If you're enjoying the show and want to take the next step in your training, join our newsletter and receive a free four-week sample training plan. Head on over to UphillAthlete.com slash Let's Go, and once you sign up, you'll instantly get a link to try out some of our most popular training plans.
00:00:35
Speaker
It's a great way to get a feel for how we train our athletes for big mountain goals. Check it out UphillAthlete.com slash Let's Go. UphillAthlete.com slash L-E-T-S-G-O.
00:00:51
Speaker
Welcome to the Uphill Athlete Podcast. With me today to break down the Everest 2026 season is Mr. Alan Arnett, who's been chronicling Everest's seasons for years. He's climbed the mountain himself and it works with climbers through his company Summit Coach. And he's also a longtime friend and affiliate of Uphill Athlete.
00:01:12
Speaker
Alan, welcome back. Thanks a lot for having me, Steve. Appreciate it. And Martin Zor, many of you will know as a coach at here at Uphill Athlete, he's based in Chamonix, just finishing up with his master's in altitude physiology.
00:01:26
Speaker
And he has been coaching athletes on Everest and other altitude destinations for a lot of years now. Martin, welcome. Good to have you.
Key Themes of the Everest 2026 Season
00:01:37
Speaker
So last year, there was you had given me a few keywords for the season. We were talking about the use of drones was starting to be a topic and a few other things. What were the keywords for the 2026 Everest season? What were the key themes?
00:01:56
Speaker
Yeah, so the keywords that I've used in my season or summary were quirky, quirky, Jetstream, skiing, running, trash, records, crowds, and wait for it, normal.
00:02:15
Speaker
Normal. Interesting. Why normal? Well, all the headlines around the world screamed about the delays. I know we're going to get into that, talking about the delays and the ice fall and, you know, the big boulder the biggest um ice cube in the middle of it. And they all talked about how, you even headlines saying, speculating that the Everest season was over and they were going to cancel it. I mean, it was just all over the map. And yes, the ice fall went in two weeks late, went in the latest on record. So, you know, that part was true. But I went back and did a deep analysis. I've done this for years on the Himalayan database, which is, you know, the authority in my mind. So all the figures that you'll hear from me are all subject to being verified by the Himalayan database at some point.
00:02:56
Speaker
But if you look at the history of summits on Everest, but on the Nepal side, the 80% of the summits, the total summits for the season occur between May 17th, 18th, and May 23rd.
00:03:09
Speaker
And that's precisely what happened this year. So despite the delays, despite all the drama, despite the jet stream coming and going, it was a normal summit season.
00:03:21
Speaker
Hmm.
Record Climbing Permits and Summits
00:03:23
Speaker
So let's let's go back and go through the numbers a little bit. How many Everest permits did Nepal issue this year? i I think it was a record. Yeah, it was a record. It it broke the 2019 record. um It was ah it was at right at 497. So around 500 permits reissued. And China was the lead country this year with something like 110 permits going to the Chinese. And that's ah that's ah another continuation of ah of a trend that's been going on. India, the United States, um were they we're the other top three, and that's pretty normal. But Southeast Asia, India, and China has really been the growing demographic for Everest climbers.
00:04:04
Speaker
So we had 500, 500, let's say 500 foreigners. And I always use the ratio, and it's been going up over the years, i've been tracking this closely, of 1.5%. support climbers or Sherpas or Tibetans on that side, but we'll get into that because China closed to foreigners. So that's around 750 Sherpas that supported those 500 climbers. That's 1,250 climbers that tried to climb Everest. And then i always take like a 30% attrition rate. And this year it was less than that, surprisingly. And so we had the last number I saw 1,008 summits. Wow.
00:04:40
Speaker
summits So it was an absolute record season. And on May 20th, 274 people summited in a 24-hour period.
00:04:52
Speaker
And, you know, we didn't get a lot of data out of that because, you know bad news stays on the mountain. But i heard and talked to, I had six Summit Coach clients on the mountain this year. And so from my network and my moles, I heard it was there were 12 to 18 hour summit pushes from the South Cole to the summit. And some people told me they spent three hours trying to go from just beyond the Cornish Traverse to the top of the Hillary step.
00:05:20
Speaker
We should take about half an hour. interesting So that was one of my key words of records and crowds. um And that's where that comes from. So since the Hillary step has changed form, has that alleviated a bit of a choke point? Does that continue to hold true?
00:05:39
Speaker
No, it really hasn't because what it did, it went for me in this off with crack that was, you know, yeah it it was all it was very climbable. But if you were very inexperienced and you think about the logistics of it, you've got crampons, you've got an oxygen mask on, you've got a hood on, you know, and you're trying to basically mid fifth class rock. Yeah, it could be dark, could be mid fifth class rock climbing. And a lot of people just don't have that experience on Everest. So today I call it the Hillary slope because it's really, it's really a snow slope. um And there's really no climbing involved, per se. I mean, you can you can climb it upright attached to the fixed rope. But the rub is is basically a cornice.
00:06:19
Speaker
And two years ago, that thing was overcrowded. And there were two two climbers, Sherpa, and I think he was from the UK, that were unclipped from the rope. Big no-no, right? And that cornice collapsed.
00:06:32
Speaker
And thankfully, everybody else was saved by being attached to the fixed rope, but those two gentlemen lost their lives. So, you know, it may be easier to climb, but it's not any technically safer than than it was before.
00:06:44
Speaker
Okay. And has it helped with the timing and the flow of people passed up and down through that little section? I believe there's still a single rope. Martin, maybe you know from your clients, but I think it's still a single rope because it's not wide enough it' put put two ropes in it. So it still it's still a bottleneck, especially when you have 200 and, you know, close to 300 people trying to climb it in that short period of time.
Tibet Closure and Climbing Ethics
00:07:08
Speaker
So the Tibet side was closed this year. What happened there? So nobody really knows except for the officials in Lhasa at the CTMA or maybe in Beijing. There was a rumor going around that there was this fireworks display that was sponsored by Arterix in this famous Chinese company.
00:07:29
Speaker
pyro, pyotractic? What is it? how Fireworks guy. Yeah, there you go. um But that they they set off this long ridge of fireworks that's that that simulated a dragon. And it was in a sacred area of Tibet.
00:07:46
Speaker
And somebody got upset about it. So they closed Mount Everest in Shishapangba and that makes no sense to me whatsoever. Yeah, I knew that there was a a controversy around that, but I didn't realize that it was connected to Everest because it wasn't in the same place. i mean, it was in Tibet, but interesting. yeah Okay. Well, it it was an outdoor gear company, a Canadian outdoor gear company, Arcterics.
00:08:11
Speaker
So no one really knows. I talked to I went to a club a ah meeting here and in Colorado with a lot of Sherpas and I asked several of them and they said it was for ah conservation reasons, but even they don't know. So, you know, again, the mainstream press ran with the fireworks because that was the easiest one to, you know, to yeah always have a,
00:08:30
Speaker
Every good story has a villain. So this story had a villain. But it did end up that there was a Chinese team that did climb. And I confirmed this with a Chinese national that there were 28 Chinese nationals, no foreigners, and they were supported by 60 support climbers, of which I assume the vast majority were Tibetans. And 25 of the 28 summited on the Tibetan side, supported by an unknown number. But again, if you go by the 1.5 to 2, I would guess there was – you know, 40, 50.
00:09:02
Speaker
So there were, you know, around 75, 80 summits on the Tibetan side. But really all the action was on the Nepal site. And many team many Western teams, like Adrian Bollinger's Alpenglow, they were all set to go on the north side, like they always do. And then Adrian, you know, Adrian has strong ethics about climbing on the south side. He uses two dangers primarily for his staff. So, um and he's really a big advocate these days using a helicopter to get to Camp 2, which kind of surprises me a little bit. But you may see analogy, which is a good one, that on Denali, you know, nobody climbs, starts in Talkeetna, right? Everybody flies to the glacier. So, you know, in his mind, that would be a that would be cricket to be able to start from camp to by using helicopters to avoid the icefall.
00:09:48
Speaker
ah But I'd estimate maybe 125 people transferred from the Tibetan side to the Nepal side. So it made some difference, you know, 10 percent difference. But it it it didn't have a material impact and on the records of the crowds.
00:10:01
Speaker
OK, yeah. And I would say, you know, with having spent a lot of time in Alaska, that's not really a good analogy because the reason people don't is it's just simply of how far it is. Like, it's just like the scale. It's like you we take your month. It's not because it's dangerous. You know, it's not because the ah the ah end of the and the the glacier is ah a mass at the, you know, bottom of the glacier. It would be hard getting on and it's going to change every year, of course. But it's also like...
00:10:30
Speaker
I don't know the number of miles it is from you know the toe of the glacier up to what we call base camp now. So it's got to be 30 miles or something. So I do know people ah pretty routinely go out that way. They take pack rafts and And walk out the glacier and then put in ah and at the toe of the glacier and slow float down the Talkeet. And a couple people do that every year. So anyway, i'm um we're getting off topic here. Let me show a thousand and eight total summits, an all time record. The prior high was 2019 with 891 what
00:11:06
Speaker
in my notes pretty much all in the South Call. Well, that's the South Call summits, right? then then then In addition, there's those North Call climbers. around 1100. that you're around eleven hundred So roughly
00:11:19
Speaker
274 people in one day. That's incredible. Okay, so I have 109 Chinese, 77 American, 61 Indian, and 32 from the UK. And roughly 105 women climb Everest this year. So that's all pretty amazing. Nepal collected $8.5 million in mountaineering fees this season. This kind related to one of
00:11:37
Speaker
all pretty amazing nepal collected eight and a half million dollars in mountaineering fees this season this is kind of related to one of the questions that we asked last year is you know, the, around the rules and how they're managing those rules. eight and a half million dollars in a country like Nepal goes, goes a long ways.
00:11:59
Speaker
How is that kind of flowing through through ah to the climbers, to the support staff and the whole ecosystem? Is any of that seeing, seeing the light of day back up in, in the kumbu? Yeah.
00:12:13
Speaker
There's been talk about that for for decades, but to my knowledge, ah very little, if any, goes back to ah back to the villages like Anamchi or Parishay or someplace.
00:12:25
Speaker
The one exception are the permits that that's paying to the ah s SPCC, the Sagarmartha Pollution Control Committee, which manages the icefall doctors, which put in the fixed route, fixed lines from base camp to camp two. And so they are paid and insured through the permit. money But as far as money going to the Sherpas, no, they're paid by their operator. So, you know, a Seven Suns Trex or, ah you know, the Madison Mountaineering, they pay their Sherpas directly. So none of that permanent money goes back into the ecosystem. It all stays in the government coffers.
00:13:00
Speaker
Yeah, which, you know, was always a ah big problem. point of kind of soreness for me when I was going to the Himalaya prequel. And we we have the British to thank for this system, by the way. We could do another story, podcast about the history of the permit system and why we pay fees to governments to climb mountains in certain countries, but not in others, not in most,
Safety and Technology on Everest
00:13:23
Speaker
thankfully. So it's an interesting history. So records are the bright headline.
00:13:29
Speaker
There's a ah human ah number. There's five people who lost their lives on the mountain this season. Five have out of, you know, given some of the death tolls and some of the years path, that's actually doesn't seem too bad. It seems like it was, you know, points to me towards a pretty smooth season. I mean, there's always going to be the odd accident, right? Or somebody's going to have a cardiac arrest somewhere or, you know, a cornice is going to collapse. these These things are somewhat unavoidable when you put that many people in that kind of environment.
00:14:03
Speaker
well what's What's your take on that? Yeah, i was i was I was pleasantly surprised. You know, it's always tragic when when anybody loses their life on a mountain. course. But, you know, we had the one gentleman at the very end that self-rescued, and and we'll we'll you know we'll talk about that, I'm sure.
00:14:20
Speaker
But there were um there were three Sherpas who died. One, but he was he was ah he was a Everest mountain guide, and he died while trekking in. So, technically, that wasn't a climbing death. That was a trekking death. Yeah. And then we had a Sherpa, um I'll see, he was 30 years.
00:14:38
Speaker
No, he was 20 years old. And he slipped at Camp 3 and fell down to Lhotse Face. that That has happened before. That's the reason that you always hear people say, when ah Camp 3 is so steep and so slippery. And this year, it was pretty dry. So that was hard blue ice. And he didn't have an ice axe, probably wasn't wearing crampons. So he just had no control.
00:15:01
Speaker
And then another another gentleman, um he died while going from base camp to Camp 1. And then we had two um Indians who died. And these two really bother me a lot, obviously for their death. But the circumstances really bother me. They were climbing with Pioneer Adventures. And Pioneer made this public.
00:15:20
Speaker
And they went as far as saying, well, they both summited. And one died right at the South Summit, and the other one died at Camp 2. But here's the disturbing part, is that – so a pioneer said that they were having difficulties on the ascent.
00:15:38
Speaker
So Martin, I'm sure you coach your clients and Steve, I know you do too. And I do mine. If you're in trouble on your ascent, Turn around. Stop.
00:15:50
Speaker
Don't keep going. And this is where the summit fever plays into it. This is where the cultural interactions of Sherpas with non-Sherpas play into it. This is where having proper medical training, you know, at least having some level of wilderness mountain training, ah medical training,
00:16:07
Speaker
um That where a Sherpa can look at you and go you know, you're stumbling or, you know, hey, tell me again, what's your name? Where were you born? And if you can't answer these questions, I mean, you have some form of altitude sickness, it's probably cerebral endema, maybe pulmonary.
00:16:20
Speaker
Turn around. And if these two young men were suffering, fallback. going up, they should have been turned around. So that goes in my book, what I call a preventable death. The 51-year-old who died on his way, that probably was unpreventable. He probably had an aneurysm or a heart attack or something. And that's the contract we signed with the mountain to that you know we have some something going on in our body that we're not aware of. That's the reason that the best guides will require a complete physical physical with a stress test for anyone over 50 that goes on the mountains. To try to weed out those, you know, those unknown problems. But ah anyway, in context, five, and historically, it's anywhere from eight to 10.
00:17:01
Speaker
Three, three, four years ago, we had 18. We had two years in a row where um we had a total of 26. 23 of those were with budget operators. So, you know, there there are lessons that you can glean out every single year. And one of the reasons, and I'll just say this quickly, is that I think this year was perhaps lower despite the records, is that um people are using higher flows of supplemental oxygen starting at lower camps.
00:17:27
Speaker
So today, almost the standard is run at two to four, starting from camp two, where it used to be you started a camp three on one.
00:17:38
Speaker
yeah So, you know, if you double up the oxygen you're or quadruple it by doubling the flow, starting lower, that gives you a much better chance. And finally, um the ratio of more Sherpas climbing with you, you know, just because you have somebody climbing in front of you behind you, that doesn't make you go faster or slower, but it does give you an element of psychological security.
00:18:00
Speaker
And I think that or very inexperienced climbers, that's that that is a game changer. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So five people died on Everest in 2026, down from eight in 2024 18 in 2023.
00:18:14
Speaker
And it's still, well, a good chunk below the long-term average. I think it is worth noting that most mountaineering and most Everest deaths happened on the descent after the summit. Yeah.
00:18:26
Speaker
while they're still above 8,000 meters, the so-called death zone. One of the tests that I've used as a as a guide and not with my climbing partners as well is just have people stand and close their eyes. And you know that it's to measure whether or not they can their bodies can remain physically coordinated tactically because that part of the brain is very sensitive to um you know ah lack of enough oxygen. So that's ah that the, and and the good thing about it is for doing that, that you don't, you can, you don't have to move. You can just literally just like close their eyes. They can't tell usually if they're weaving to and fro, but everyone else can see it.
00:19:07
Speaker
And it's just ah a very, it's a very demonstrable, easy, quick test. So that's, that's what I like on the ascent when people are struggling because, you know, sometimes people are just having an off day.
00:19:19
Speaker
So this was a late season, as you alluded to earlier, Khumbu Icefall, the sort of dynamic section of the glacier between base camp and Camp 1, is the most dangerous part of the route, despite what I just said. Because the icefall can collapse or people can fall in crevasses and it nearly didn't open. Kind of walk us through what happened.
00:19:42
Speaker
There was a Serac there. Maybe start with what a Serac is real quick and ah how that how that kind of affected the season. Yeah. Yeah, so this was ah this was unusual because the the the usual concern are the hanging Seracs. A Serac is just a ah a a huge ice cube, a huge collection of ice. And if you're as you're going up the icefall from Base Cat to the climber's left, there's the west shoulder of Everest, and it soars thousands of feet. And there's this massive collection of ah of ice just just just hanging there. And every single year, slivers of a cav off. Now, in 2014, it wasn't a sliver. It was a chunk. And there were 16 Sherpas waiting for the icefall doctors to repair a ladder ah near the football field, which is basically around the middle of the icefall. And they they they should have turned around.
00:20:37
Speaker
um Some of the ah Western guys, as soon as they got and notice of that, they told the Sherpas to turn around and get back down, get out of there. Others should have stayed and this thing collapsed on top of them. This year was different.
00:20:48
Speaker
This year, it was a 100 foot by 200 foot by 100 foot ice cube that was sitting there near the top of the icefall, but it wasn't it wasn't vertical. It was leaning.
00:21:00
Speaker
At first, when the icefall doctors went up and they saw it, they couldn't go to the left of it because it was blocked. And they were afraid to go to the right of it because it was just literally teetering. And one day they said it was, you know, there was a one foot gap. The next day it was three feet. the next day it was eight feet. So this thing was moving.
00:21:16
Speaker
So the icefall doctors, you know fresh of that memory. um And then even last year, there were three, um, um, Sherpas who fell through the top of the icefall, it was like a dome that was really, there was an air bubble. And they broke through that and those three died. So while technically the icefall not the most dangerous place, it's where a lot of deaths happen because there's been around 70 or 80 deaths in the icefall out of the 320. So to your point, Steve, more people die higher up on the mountain than mostly on the descent. But with this big ice cube sitting there, the icefall doctors, you know and they they used drones to fly over to try to scout all the routes.
00:21:55
Speaker
They went up, they did everything they could possibly do, but it it went on day after day after day until it got to two weeks. And then Ming-Majie, who is a ah famous for his ah his impatience, also famous for his incredible skill. he's he's one He was on the team to summit the K2 in winter for the first K2 winter summit.
00:22:16
Speaker
But Ming-Majie said, I've had enough of this. And so he sent ah four of his serpents and also Bartek, the Polish sear skier that we should talk about and give a lot of love to. um They went up and they found a route. Yeah.
00:22:30
Speaker
and And they put in some you know some rope ah near Camp 1, but then whiteout came and they had to you know turn around to go back down. But basically, they opened a route. And then so all of a sudden, the Icefall doctors went up to Camp 1. They went to Camp 2. And so now you it was...
00:22:47
Speaker
We're also open. So now Sherpa started bringing up all the gear to Camp 2. They were using drones to ah ferry um pickets and rope up to to fix the summit from Camp 2 to the summit. And then for some unknown odd reason, claiming national security, the Nepal government banned the use of using drones. And so that but which was really bad because these drones were also carrying trash back down.
00:23:12
Speaker
Luckily, five days later, somebody woke up and said, wait a minute we're shooting ourselves in the foot. So they reversed that ban. So this is part of the yeah that but the cryptic aspect of the season. Things were happening and they weren't happening. And, you know, there were delays and there weren't delays. So what the the big impact of that was that a lot of teams went and some ah acclimatized instead of using going to Camp 1 and Camp 2 and Camp 3 to acclimatize. They went to the trekking peaks of Mira and Island um and Lobache. And some actually even moved their base camp to these mountains, like um climbing the seven summits, Mike Campbell. They completely set up a Mira base camp.
00:23:52
Speaker
I think it was on Mira. And they just they literally spent the night nights at on the summit there. So they got acclimatized to the quibble on the camp too. So once the route got to the summit, man,
00:24:05
Speaker
like nobody Nobody did know a traditional acclimatization because they were already acclimatized to 65,000, 7,000 meters. And then plus using supplemental oxygen to higher flows, lower rates, lower elevations.
00:24:16
Speaker
You the season just once they got the ropes to the summit. um I mean, and again, that was a massive effort because it's jet stream. It kept coming in and going out, coming in and going out, and became very unpredictable. My good friend Chris Tomer is a meteorologist, and he gives weather reports, and Michael Fagan and Mark DeKeyser, they all said you know the jet stream was just really erratic this year. It kept coming and going, coming and going, and that stopped the storm.
Weather and Acclimatization Challenges
00:24:45
Speaker
the summit rope fixers for about four or five days. And so all a sudden people started getting more nervous again, like they were when the route wasn't through the ice fall. So it was this kind of on again, off again season. But once the, um you know, they got the ropes to the summit, there was, there were, uh,
00:25:02
Speaker
There was a two, I think two Norwegians, one Sweden and three Chinese that were fast followers to the rope team. And ah they they summited on the same day that the ropes got to the summit.
00:25:13
Speaker
know, the rope fixers don't like that. They don't like to have people behind them because, you know, they're kicking stuff down and, you know, there's lots of problems with that. But um and then the icefall, the jet stream came back.
00:25:24
Speaker
So nobody summited in again for like the next four days. And then we had that that next week, the week of the, i guess it was the 17th. And that's when every single day people were going up.
00:25:37
Speaker
The window opened. The window opened. Window opened. Right on schedule. right right on schedule it's it it is It is very unique in that way. Like I don't, you know, all the climbing I've done in the Himalaya, that's the only place where there's sort of this very reliable um you know, kind of light clockwork every year sort pattern. ah Most of the Himalayas just affected by the normal meteorological, you know, ups and downs of of, you know, good years and bad years. But that's that's a very, very interesting thing. It's just just high enough and that just sits in exactly the right geographic geography related relative to where our weather circulates the globe that it that it that has this effect.
00:26:26
Speaker
It doesn't happen in the Alps or the you know, the Karakoram or in Alaska or down in South America. I mean, you know, those mountains are really hard to forecast, whereas Everest is relatively straightforward, or at least has been historically. Yeah, yeah, knock on wood.
00:26:44
Speaker
Last year, we spent, I think, a total, well, we talked about it on this kind of rushsh recap show, but we also dedicated another two podcast episodes to the topic of a certain noble gas called Xenon. And at the time, it was kind of a one-off experiment. And this was the year it was supposed to become more of a ah product.
00:27:08
Speaker
And we were going to see a lot of people using ah Xenon. Alan, what? From what you can tell, what happened with Xenon and the four-day ascents of Everest in 2026? I have not been able to find any public sources that didn't come from the operator who um who promoted it last year, Frutenbach Adventures, to find anybody's name. I have have not seen anybody claim they used it. um I haven't even heard of rumors or word of mouth.
00:27:39
Speaker
um You know, ah Lucas did put a lot of people, something to like nearly 50 on the summit. um he has He has multiple teams. He has, ah you know, the traditional team and he has his Flash team, which runs in two weeks and others. um And he has a website that they, you know, they were, I think it was last year that they were going to use Xenon in 2026, but haven't to been able to verify that. So i I won't say that they didn't use it or they did use it. I i simply don't know.
00:28:06
Speaker
Yeah. And i reached out to Lukas and Martin, you talked to your athletes and none of us are entirely clear. what i so What I see from my point of view is that the trend of the last years and seasons is towards the flash expeditions or rapid expeditions more and more.
00:28:22
Speaker
um I think there is actually space for everybody to to do their their thing. But the the then the requirements of knowing how the acclimatization works and what is required.
00:28:33
Speaker
ah how to do the pre-acclimatization is of course increasing to do it right because you're on Everest, you definitely need to be acclimatized. And I have heard several cases or many cases that it just didn't work, different problems, pulmonary edema relatively low, still on the mountain even before.
00:28:54
Speaker
before reaching the base camp. So, um, you know, doing the pre-aclimatization at home or, ah not on the mountain yet, it's, it requires definitely a lot of knowledge. So how would they recommend, uh, athletes to, to reach out to, to, people who have that knowledge.
00:29:10
Speaker
um you're putting a lot on the, on the line, so your life and, uh, of course there's succeed success, um, on the climb but then um i think uh i think i rest is uh still a tough climb it's uh i think uh for me that's what i was observing even this year uh still a lot of uh people didn't succeed didn't make it to the summit uh it's ah again very hectic it's gonna be hectic due to the weather conditions uh the ice fall so there's a lot of this unpredictability
00:29:42
Speaker
Also, in the north side closed actually in the last ah moment, so some of those athletes redirected to the south, which is then kind of a different route, but you still should be probably prepared pretty much to the same level. But still, I think mentally it's not an easy task.
00:29:59
Speaker
i heard I had some athletes like that, they were ready for the north and then last minute and like, wow, okay, we we go to the south and I could see that it's disturbing and you know you're ready for something and all a sudden it's changed. So am yeah, I think then as I maybe and can be redirected then to my perspective as a coach, how to be ready for Everest climb, of course, is not just about the physical of the capacity, but that's the one where you can change the most with physical training, with with right preparation and how long it takes. But then the acclimatization and other techniques to to be able to succeed.
00:30:38
Speaker
But I think also that mental... mental capacity, the robustness to just be ready to face a lot of uncontrolled the factors that you cannot control, ah like the weather, like the crowds waiting in the line, which yeah was quite spectacular to see. Some of the days were really busy. So, um yeah, i just think that simply nothing really prepares you for that. time It's a very unique situation. And so, yeah, I definitely um fit that in the preparation this year more than before the mental readiness.
00:31:13
Speaker
Yeah, and you know I think Xenon promised to dramatically shorten people's time on the mountain, which there's a strong safety argument for for spending less time in ah in a risky environment.
00:31:27
Speaker
But drones are also trying to do the same thing specifically for the people who carry the loads online. through the places like the ice fall and up to the upper mountain or these two camp two. And that, as you, as you mentioned earlier, Alan turned a little bit of an international incident this year.
00:31:47
Speaker
but just want to hear about this sort of technology. I think there's both the technology story. There's also a money story in this. And how did this kind of unfold?
00:31:59
Speaker
What is the, what are the, what Why use drones on Everest? How does and how much can they actually do? Yeah, so it actually started maybe, don't know, three or four years ago during the COVID closures that the Chinese were using it extensively to remove trash, these um these drones. And then a Nepali company bought drones. a couple last year and experimented with it. One of them crashed in the icefall. But these things are things are like $80,000 and they have a payload of something like 60 pounds, but they only do use half of that because of the the altitude. But um I guess when you have an $80,000 drone, it should come with a parachute, which it does. So when when the rotors stopped, the parachute deployed and so they were able to get the drone back out of the outlet some crevasse in the icefall. But they're using it mainly as a way of offloading the Sherpas and reducing the number of trips that they go through the icefall. That's on the ascent. So they're carrying up, you know, pickets and screws and and rope. You know, they're just attaching it to the bottom in a net and just, and some guy's sitting at base camp and he's just...
00:33:13
Speaker
You know, they've got cameras on, so they're just flying them up and then dropping them off at Camp 1. um So it's really straightforward. And then once it gets to Camp 1, then they've got ah you know some rice bags filled with trash, and they just attach it to the drone, and it carries back down to base camp for proper disposal. um So, and that was actually, everybody was really excited about that this year. Then there was this American company that also brought over some drones, and apparently um somebody in the Ministry of Tourism, or perhaps it was Defense, um they they raised the question about what happens if they lose control of the drone and it flies into a human?
00:33:52
Speaker
ah you know who's who's who's who's Who's liable for that? And then it was like, okay, we also, we're right on the Chinese border, and so we are not allowed to fly into China.
00:34:03
Speaker
What happens if somebody loses control? So there was this myriad of arguments about That caused, like I said earlier, for the authorities to say, okay, no more drone flights. um And this was during that delay period that I was talking about earlier.
00:34:18
Speaker
So then people were saying, wait a minute, if we can't use drones, which was going to kind of be ah a shortcut for us, especially in a situation, the scenario like this that that developed of delays, then, you know, come on, let's get real. And so the government reversed the itself. Okay.
00:34:34
Speaker
And so they did allow drones then to carry, um you know, mainly rope fixing gear up into the Coombe, the Western Coombe, and bring trash back down. And it was just a Camp 1? Or were they able to go ahead? not 100% sure, Steve, but I'm 80% sure it was just a Camp 1. Because of the, know, it's 2,000 feet, 19.5 to 21.5. you're around 6,500 meters away. And maybe you can describe this little bit because I've not been there myself, but my understanding is camp one is a lot like an advanced base camp and there's there's cook staff often there. like there's there's like there's quite a bit of infrastructure at camp one. That's. That would be Camp 2. Camp 2 is technically advanced base camp. Camp 1 is more of a way station for on your first acclimatization, you spend the night there because you're going from 17-5 at base camp to 19-5. And then you spend, actually you spend two nights there. One night, you just resting from the ice climb, icefall climb. And the next day you have an active rest day where you go up halfway. And then most teams today move to Camp 2 and stay there for three or four days. They may go up to 7,000 meters in the low sea face for a climatization. And that's it.
00:35:46
Speaker
I mean, in the old days, you know, when I climbed it, you know. it was We went out to Camp 1 and back down. We went back to Camp 1. Then we went to Camp 2 and then we went back down. Then went back to Camp 1, Camp 2, Camp 3, back down. you know So we had like like at least three rotations through it. These days, most people just do one because they're using the supplemental oxygen and they're they're acclimatizing at home, as as Martin described, and they're acclimatizing on the trekking peaks of mainly Lobache. Right.
00:36:13
Speaker
So those three factors have to completely change the schedule. And that's part of why it's no it's very rare that a company will run two months expedition. all You arrive at you know May 1st, you leave on June 1st.
00:36:27
Speaker
Almost nobody does that now. ah You know, Madison Mountaineering had a two-week climber. We mentioned Frutenbach had a two-week expedition. ah Adrian Bollinger regularly runs two, three weeks in the north. So four to five weeks has now become the average. So it's been three weeks it's been shaved off.
00:36:46
Speaker
Interesting. Yeah. ah So when you, so the drone is sort of like a inexpensive helicopter. It's just doing this, this, this work and it's replacing the risk of ah moving humans up and down through that hazardous area. Is it displacing workers that want that job? Do you think, or what is the, what is the, you know, there's always a sort of a and I think this is a big topic these days, the human cost of technological advancement, right? Like there's, You can't put the gene back in the bottle. Drones are here. we're going to use them What are the consequences and who owns the repercussions of those consequences?
00:37:22
Speaker
Well, at the the obvious um casualty would be Sherpas because they get paid by by the load. And they get paid not only how much weight they carry, but how many times they they will carry a load to a camp. so But i yeah I have not heard an outcry saying that drones are going to take away my job because most Sherpas, they've lost family, friends. Yeah.
00:37:50
Speaker
relatives, brothers, fathers, you know, to casualties within the icefall. So, you know, this dangerous enough, you know, to climbing up the Lhotse face in the Southeast Ridge and second step, much less having to go through this, you know, this ice cube.
00:38:06
Speaker
Is this just a prelude to the drones doing all of the carrying and moving all of the gear to each of the camps and just the sort of the the step one of the technology if we peer into the future?
00:38:18
Speaker
There's been a lot of requests to have helicopters, not drones, because a helicopter can carry one load. Well, will take multiple drone trips to do. And the DePaul government is slowly coming around to that. This year, once the delays went in, they did authorize helicopters to fly gear to Camp 2, which might have been why the drones only went to Camp 1. But, you know, a helicopter can carry tons of stuff. sure If you look at some that you look at the base camp where they've got sofas, literally, you know, sofas you would buy from ah a furniture store in a big dome round tent, that sofa was carried up by a helicopter, not on the back of a porter or on a yak. So helicopters are already playing a pivotal role in making, you know, bringing the luxuries, you know, to camp. One thing about the drones, which um is really interesting, I was talking to Dan Richards. He's the CEO of Global Rescue. They're probably the dominant ah evacuation company ah worldwide. And I was talking to him mainly about this insurance fraud that's been going on, ah ah mainly in trekking, not only not climbing Mount Everest, but with trekkers. They're getting poisoned by putting drops in their water bottle or ah putting baking soda or something. And then they get upset, stomach, they start throwing up. They say, oh, you need to have a helicopter rescue out. So, you know, they fly back to Kathmandu and, you know. The trucking guy calls her uncle, who's the helicopter pilot, who calls his brother, who's the doctor at the hospital. So there's this whole thing about 80 people have been indicted by the Nepal FBI on this scheme. So I was talking to Dan Richards about all of that. And and again, I need to emphasize that this is all trucking, not Mount Everest guys.
00:40:02
Speaker
poisoning Mount Everest climbers. That was the bait click headline that you read, 100% inaccurate. I'm talking to Dan Richards about about all of this. And I said, any chance that you'll use drones and instead of helicopters to ah help evacuate people in the future?
00:40:17
Speaker
So think about that. Now you've got a dr drone. you're're You're long-lined to a drone or you're put into a net oh with a drone. And he said they have they have seriously talked about it. The technology is not quite there yet to be reliable and to carry up, you know, a 250-pound person with gear. or Maybe they don't get your gear. But, you know, bringing down a 150, 200-pound person. But that might be something that we see that's three, five, seven years now.
00:40:44
Speaker
Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely. So let's answer their question everyone
Financial and Physical Preparation for Everest
00:40:50
Speaker
types into Google. How much does it cost to climb Mount Everest in 2026 or in 2027? So always write this ah annual article about that and I go and I survey all the guides. I talk to Nepali guides and Western guides and like I get their prices and stuff. And then i want the mother all spreadsheets where I do, you know, standard deviations and calculations and medians and averages, 50,000 bucks.
00:41:13
Speaker
That's what it was this year. That that was the median. But it ranged from the po the poly companies, they will they will discount, they will bargain with you. So you could get it for $30,000 for like Basecamp-only services, all the way up to what like Seven Summers Trex calls their VVIP.
00:41:31
Speaker
So two Vs. So it's really important. that that by me Very, very important, Nelson. Very, very. So that might be, you know, $200,000, $250,000. And then you might have a one-on-one with a world-famous climber like a Nimeral or a Kenton Kuhl, and that could run you $500,000 to a million.
00:41:51
Speaker
ah So it it is all over the map. And just like that in airlines where, you know, you can fly across the the ah Atlantic for $1,000 or depending upon where you want on the airplane.
00:42:06
Speaker
yeah It's the same thing with, ah you know, with mountaineering now. And that's not unique to Everest. That's all around the world. You know, there are companies that are really ratcheting up the luxury side of it. um But the permit price went from $11,000 to $15,000. And you really didn't get anything more for it, except the government got, you know, they've made an extra however were many, 500 times $4,000 was. They got that extra money.
00:42:32
Speaker
And, ah but I predicted last year, I didn't think it was going to have a material impact on the crowds. And sure enough, we had record crowds this year. So I think what had more of a material impact was the 7,000 meter rule.
00:42:43
Speaker
So whenever you want to talk about that. If you've been wondering whether one-on-one coaching is the right next step for your training, this is the month to find out. Sign up for coaching and receive a free 30-minute call with one of our specialists.
00:42:58
Speaker
Visit UphillAthlete.com to learn more. Now, back to that show. I want to talk about ah whether or not you can train for Everest. This is the question that gets typed into Google that brings a lot of people to uphill athlete is, you know, asking people asking how to train for Everest. They want to hear that it's a certain, i don't know, magic exercise or something. Yeah.
00:43:26
Speaker
how fit they need to be how to measure their fitness to know they are fit enough to to climb Everest how fit they need to be to climb Everest without oxygen these kinds of things so so Martin why don't you uh start with this let's start with this question how long does it take to prepare physically for climbing Everest like what's the honest answer
00:43:52
Speaker
Ideally, i would say at least one year, but that's of course, uh, Yeah, you know, that that's relative, of course, to what you've been doing all those years before. i know's it's always It always depends.
00:44:04
Speaker
In endurance coaching, endurance training. So, you know, that's ah always the first, ah maybe one of the first tasks to see where the athlete is when we start working together and they' are coaching him so or her. So, and you know, start where we are and how long do we have? And so how long do we have is really kind of the knowledge we have about how long it takes for the body to adapt to training And so we take it from there. Right. So we have now many athletes approaching us in October, and which is like six months before so six, seven months before ah the climb. So, I mean, um it's not ideal, but we have to do our best. And usually these athletes, they they are serious. dave be They have been doing some training, some form of training. Right. So then it's really
00:44:51
Speaker
ah not wasting any time, do the testing to see where they are, and making sure that they know their intensity zones, they know what to do, and ah setting up some volume and then take it from there. And ah yeah, again, um the more ideal version is that the athletes approach us two years even before and they say, OK, I have this plan. I want to climb some big mountains and eventually Everest.
00:45:17
Speaker
That's of course its much much better. We have some time, we have time to figure it out. We have time for multiple big blocks, the macro cycles, not micro or mesocycles, actually the big year cycles and evaluate, assess, see how actually they respond. Everybody responds a bit differently. and and need more time. But um yeah, it really depends. ah But again, most of these athletes, ah there needs to be sometimes a reality to check that, I'm sorry, but we don't really have much time here and ah you're not in ah great shape, to be honest, for this big climb. So I would ah recommend taking more time because you also want you want to be safe. You want to enjoy the climb and you might just simply not make it. So um yeah, that's... so
00:46:02
Speaker
I talk to a lot of these people on the phone or on Zoom and, you know, I sort of say there's a couple of things I always say. I always say like exercising is not training that that that people are like, oh, yeah, i'm playing tennis. and I'm doing this. I'm like, well, that's not the same as structured training where you're improving your fitness over time using proven, well understood methodologies. Yeah.
00:46:25
Speaker
And it takes about 10 years of structured training to realize your genetic potentials and endurance athlete on average. And if you're older, it takes, you know, have that curve maybe maybe maybe yeah maybe a little steeper on the backside of it. So um I really encourage people to to start at least a year. You know, we're really really pushing for that now as much as we can.
00:46:52
Speaker
Another question people want to know is how fit they actually need to be. And they want a number, they want a VO2 max or ah a chronic training load score. Why is that?
00:47:02
Speaker
Is that the right question to ask? And if so, why?
00:47:08
Speaker
I think it's natural that people just want to quantify it and they just want to see, am I there or what does it take for me to get there? ah So none of those like VO Max or ah like the threshold speed or and ah the CTL and training peaks are wrong. They definitely represent represents something, right? Like a sum of something. And so our maximum Arabic capacity, but ah one number, again, there's no one number that will tell you, will you or not make it? Are you actually fit in that specific, ah in those specific factors that you need?
00:47:42
Speaker
ah With CTL, I think there is definitely a lot of power in that number because it represents like the accumulated volume of training for months, months, the last months of shelf ah of the training ah you've done so far. So there is definitely some power, but it all depends also how what you did, what you did to increase that CTL, right? So ah there needs to be, of course, a minimum amount of Arabic volume because that represents the time.
00:48:08
Speaker
that the body was and is as it was adapting and making you stronger. And, you know, you might have been doing that cycling. So that's great general fitness. But when you go up the hill or down the hill ah with big boots, with a lot of with weight, not sure that it's going to help you. So I think that what I've been coming to in the last seasons was setting up a list of factors that I consider really important. So they are physical and they are and then more like the tights to the physical like nutrition, breathing techniques, breathwork training. um
00:48:43
Speaker
Yeah, um acclimatization, of course. and others. But I think one number that I sort of look at quite often and in a training peaks with my athletes and myself included is the how fast can you go up the hill? So basically the the work, so the potential energy, whatever the physics behind it. But I think it's a great proxy.
00:49:03
Speaker
ah It kind of tells me quickly where the athlete is. It's ah really visible on training peaks where ah it's the BAM number. You can set it up on your Garmin or watches that you have with GPS. You can see it live then when you go up the hill.
00:49:17
Speaker
ah Also, you can calculated, estimated on treadmills based on the incline and the speed of the treadmill. So that's what I'm watching ah with the intensity of the heart rate and seeing how how much elevation gain the athlete can cover in a time. And that gives me some idea of how fast they are moving and ah they can sustain the speed and in the fresh state, in the fatigued state.
00:49:43
Speaker
So that gives me an idea of, okay, that you're great when you're doing one hour session, but actually the climb will take many, many hours, right? So what happens then? So that's what we're trying to build, especially in the most specific stage, the four or five months before, and because ultimately that will help the most. And also muscle endurance, the strength requirements, that is of course for the uphill, for the downhill, that also links to the fatigue resistance.
00:50:10
Speaker
um Yeah, so actually, Basically, it's it's complex. It's not one number. One number will never give you an answer to, am I ready? Am I fit for Everest? I think it's true that most people are going to need one to two years of structured training to climb Everest, not a few months. And the biggest determinant of success is going to be having spent the time to build a deep aerobic base that is built mostly with easy zone two training.
00:50:40
Speaker
And plus, of course, the climbing experience to be able to efficiently move up the mountain and make good decisions when you're there. Let's Ask you, Alan, what is the experience, sort of the apprenticeship that you recommend people have before they step onto a mountain like Everest?
00:50:58
Speaker
Yeah, I fully agree with everything that Martin said. Here in Colorado, tell people that most of our mountains that are 14,000-foot mountains, they start the base camp or the trailhead is at 9,000 feet. And so I'd like to see them do 1,500 feet an hour and make that consistent.
00:51:17
Speaker
So that'd be what be meters at a mountain. And I tell them if they can do that continuously and then um go do back-to-back training sessions. You know, if they go you know they do a five-hour climb to get to the top of 14er, when you get back down to your car, get some water, get some calories, do it again.
00:51:39
Speaker
And then, you know, do that and then do it again the next day. um And so what I'm looking for with them, yeah so kind of my KPI, my key performance indicator is the recovery time. And I ask them to rate themselves on a scale from zero to 10, where zero is that, oh, I could do it again. I could do it third time. And 10 is that I need to go to the to the emergency room.
00:51:58
Speaker
you know And so what you do is, you and if ideally, if you do this over a year and you do the ah back-to-back once a month and you track yourself, then you should see that recovery index. And it's totally quantitative. I mean, it's a yeah quantitative. it's you just it's It's a simple question.
00:52:17
Speaker
How do you feel? yeah yeah throw away your watch throw away your you know everything else throw away anything's got a battery in it and just ask yourself in you know and you in a private moment how do i feel and just be honest with yourself that to me that's the best indicator that you can possibly get but i have people come to summit coach that um that that i love that love that line that exercising is not training that you know this yeah i'll play i play pickleball you know twice a week well good keep it up if But now let's add some real training in there. yeah um You know, and this ah it for me, as so I take a very holistic approach to it. And I ask people to, you work on their their mental toughness, ah you know, their emotional stability, and then their physical strength. And it's the lower body, it's the core. Those those are the key areas for me. The upper body, you know, I always use Alex Honnold as my role model that, ah you know, he's kind of a skinny guy.
00:53:14
Speaker
yeah but he say But he's an ant. You know, he is disproportionately strong for the size of his muscle and his body. And so, part of that, a lot of that comes from his holistic approach of training the mind, the emotions, and then also the physical strength. But I have people come to me all the way from great athletes that are running marathons that, you know, I've got a 70-year-old client and his VO2 max is in the 99th percentile.
00:53:38
Speaker
Right. you know And then I've got other people where their yeah their heart rate variation is you know in the in the single digits. It's a miracle they're alive. So yeah and for most people, I refer them to you guys for the physical training because just like Martins, you know you guys are the you know you're the experts in the field.
00:53:58
Speaker
What about the on-mountain experience, kind of the climbing apprenticeship? So that is a continuum. um You know, i always suggest I start off with a one-on-one intro to mountaineering with an IFMGA guide. So that is just the two of them. You know, teach them that crampons have a left and a right foot. You know, how to double back your harness. What are the four basic knots that you need? You know, what's the what's pressure breathing, rest up. How do you how do you take a an efficient break? How do you pack your pack? So 80% of the weight is on your hips, not your shoulder. So that one-on-one day. So if you don't know anything, go get some basics to begin to develop good practices. Don't just rely upon your buddy. You know, I've never been a good skier because the first time i ever went skiing, I taught myself.
00:54:50
Speaker
And I taught myself all the bad habits. and They've stuck with me for life. So I said, I'm never going to be a good skier. So never do it. And so, you know, yeah if you want to be a bad climber, then, you know, just climb with your friends and don't get any, any professional training.
00:55:02
Speaker
So number one, intro to, intro to mountaineering with IFMGA guide. Number two, go take a class like on a Rainier or a Mont Blanc, you know, from again, and a truly trained IFMGA guide that you're going to actually be on the snow. You're going to learn how to, you know, the footwork, the, um,
00:55:19
Speaker
crampon steps, all that stuff. Then you begin a series of climbs, you know, and basically four, five, six, 7,000 meter climb. um So go to Peak Linen, go to Himlong, go Aconcagua for the 7,000s, go to Ecuador for the 6,000s, Kyrgyzstan for some of the 6,000. The world's full of mountains that that would go to this gradation. And then ideally, before you go to Everest, um I want to see people go to Manasli or Choyo U.
00:55:49
Speaker
Because the problem is that for most of my clients, they don't know what they don't know. um And the only way to know is to stick your nose in it. And, you know, if you go and you don't summit, there are incredible lessons that come from that. It's not a failure. It's a non-summit.
00:56:05
Speaker
It's only a failure if you don't learn from it. But, yeah, I like to see people go, you know, go to those 8,000 meter mountains before they try Everest. Because, you know, I always say two things about altitude. One is this random.
00:56:16
Speaker
One time you'll do great, the next time you want. And it's exponential. So you may say, well, i you know, i did Kili and i I did great on Kili. I didn't even breathe hard. Good.
00:56:27
Speaker
Proud of you. Way to go. That's 20,000 feet. You got 9,000 more to go. yeah And again, you don't know what you don't know. And it's not a linear curve. It's an exponential curve.
00:56:37
Speaker
it's It's so true. It's such a difference between even 7,000 and 8,000 even 6,500 meters and 7,000 meters. you you know It just is an exponential curve.
00:56:49
Speaker
ah Martin, what what are you telling people to to do in terms of their apprenticeship? Anything to add to Alan's description or that is that a pretty good track?
00:57:01
Speaker
I think it's pretty good, yeah. I agree with that. It's the technical aspect. It's deacclimatization. As much as we learn, ah more we learn, the better yeah how you handle altitude. Konkakawa is great in terms of like if you get to that seven to almost 7,000-meter altitude without supplemental, then it's a good test because it's easy terrain.
00:57:22
Speaker
And then you know you will be doing that and probably now a bit lower, as Alan, you said that people start supplemental oxygen on a rest in, ah well, much lower now, ah come come to maybe even lower sometimes. So, you know, but still, I think it's great to test the body, test the capacity.
00:57:40
Speaker
And, ah but I am, I think the trend is maybe just that people are sort of rushing it and not everybody Again, not everybody, but they want to skip. They they don't want to go to um to the 8,000 meter peaks. But I do recommend it.
00:57:55
Speaker
I think also just taking the time. I know that some people really want to do like Denali in spring. 8,000 or like Manaslu, Choyu in in September and then Everest. I'm like, ah calm down because the mental space it takes and energy, like they burn out. I often see that. you know If they just go one after one another, it backfires.
00:58:16
Speaker
seriously. So I usually just try to keep them patient and just use my examples from my athletic career is like, you know, it takes years and it's actually the enjoyable part. like That's the journey.
00:58:28
Speaker
And um yeah, but anyway, back to back to Everest and what to climb. I think more the better. Denali is great also, even though it's relatively lower. But it's a great like technical, all different aspects, but still a big physical effort, a big expedition.
00:58:44
Speaker
And I think it's also one of the great prerequisites or, um you know, kind of chickens, whether you're ready. Well, let's take a look. Himalaya and Nepal. So that experience in the in the country, I think it also helps if you go to Gumbu and you know what to expect.
00:59:02
Speaker
Maybe that helps. That's good point. Yeah. Yeah.
Notable Achievements and Regulations
00:59:05
Speaker
I want to segue to the kind of future of Everest and come back, circle back on the predictions we made here last year. But one of the ways I wanted to do that is call out an incredible...
00:59:16
Speaker
accomplishment this year, which also is really interesting that the, that Everest was skied for the second time without the use of supplemental oxygen in just two years. at Last year, it was already incredible. And one of the things that has so often happened with incredible firsts is there's no second for like decades after, because someone's done it. It's like, wow, yeah, that kind of takes ah takes the allure off. But Bartek Ziemski, I believe I'm saying that right, Polish mountaineer and skier, not only skied off of Everest without supplemental oxygen, but also skied off of Lhotse without supplemental oxygen to the full descent. So I think that that was, ah that was for me personally, that was kind of the highlight of the Everest season is is seeing seeing that go down and and and just see somebody who's who's obviously there doing it for the love of it, not because he wants to, he really cares about the record. Like if he's first or second or 10th, like
01:00:14
Speaker
That guy obviously just like wants to be there and doing what he's doing. and i always always love to see that. You know, Lhotse, he went out before the ropes were put in, and he he basically soloed.
01:00:26
Speaker
I mean, he was 100% alone. He climbed, he summited Lhotse, and he skied back down 100% alone, no O's. I mean, just astounding.
01:00:37
Speaker
That was the highlight of the season for me, yeah. Just seeing the video, like your raw video of ah no ropes and the beautiful cool air, and wow, this is Lhotse. Nobody there, was really amazing. Yeah, nobody there, and and next you know fourth highest mountain in the world, if I remember right, and you know like skiing off of the top. like I've been to 8,000 meters a few times. That that is hard, i mean and I haven't been as high as Lhotse, so I can only imagine. like and i always...
01:01:06
Speaker
but A lot of people have asked me over the years about skiing off of 8,000 meter peaks. And I've always sort of said, you know, like, i I don't think it actually makes that much sense most of the time because most of the time the snow isn't very good. It's icy. The wind, it's rear very, very windy at those altitudes. So the wind is, the snow is all compacted and and thrown around by the wind. And it's it's just going to be, it's not going to be great skiing. Yeah. And you're going to have to carry the ski. Like you're kind of handicapping yourself by carrying all this stuff up and then like using it on the way down.
01:01:38
Speaker
It's most of the time faster to just walk or climb down. But, you know, seeing these guys, ah you know, Bartek this year and and the and this all the skiers last year, it was really cool to to see um them doing that on their terms and and making it look great and, you know, terrifying, but like great. Yeah.
01:02:00
Speaker
Yeah, think it's just like that there is still space for everyone to to you know to show it show up and have an experience. So I think the next day that there was a fixed line, I think it would be impossible for m to to do any turns. And it was so narrow.
01:02:15
Speaker
it Almost the skis didn't fit. So imagine. So that was cool. So last year when we were here, Alan, you said, and I quote, I think we're going to see a lot more first ascents of unclimbed mountains in the Himalaya, commercialized first ascents.
01:02:32
Speaker
you also said that you're going we're going to see more people on Everest, and you suggested that if they... go through with their proposal to require people to have a 7,000-meter summit in Nepal. They've climbed that they're going to see the Everest numbers cut in half.
01:02:54
Speaker
And you said predicted that the permit prices were going to go from $11,000 to $15,000 and that that was not going to have a measurable impact. You're absolutely right on that one. It seems like, actually, as you pointed out, like it was a record year, so anything hip was was ah was a to people that didn't seem bothered. What happened to the 7,000 meter requirement?
01:03:18
Speaker
It is hung up in um Nepal's government. They have two chambers. They have an upper chamber and a lower chamber. It passed the upper chamber, um which is equivalent to like the United States Senate. And then the larger um lower chamber, which is equivalent like the House of Representatives. We have more individual representatives from all throughout Nepal, is has not um is not past that chamber.
01:03:44
Speaker
And um my understanding is that there is some serious consideration to changing the wording around the 7,000 meter requirement. So remember, this is called a tourism bill. And it's 2081. You can go to the website. You Google Nepal tourism bill 2081. And you can actually see a tracker of where it is in the process. But my understanding, it's a big tourism bill. i mean, it covers casinos and gambling and mountain climbing and taxis, everything. um But...
01:04:13
Speaker
they The big pushback has been the seventh nobody's pushing back on the 7,000 meter requirement. What people are pushing back on is in Nepal only. So in other words, you could have summited K2 and not a 7,000 meter mountain in Nepal and not be eligible for an Everest permit.
01:04:31
Speaker
And and but if you say it like that, I don't know anybody that would say, oh, yeah, that makes sense. um because And then then you get into what's the motivation here. Is it really behind safety and increasing people's experience or is it a revenue generating? And the problem with that argument is that the trekking peaks, those permits are hundreds of dollars.
01:04:54
Speaker
So you'd have to have thousands of people to generate any meaningful revenue for the country. So then you just say, you know, the common sense thing is make it any mountain. And maybe it's not even 7,000 meters, maybe it's 6,500 meters. I personally would like to see to be 8,000 meters anywhere in the world. And that would that would narrow it down to three countries.
01:05:16
Speaker
But, um you know, 7,000 meters anywhere in the world. And maybe you throw in a few um climbs by it by name, by exception, like Ahmed Ablam. ah Denali, Aconcagua, you know, Peak Lennon, which is over 7,000 anyway. But, you know, maybe you have ah a short list of acceptable climbs and not just make it an altitude. So my understanding is that discussion is going on. um There was a big meeting that was held around June 1st of ah a lot of um not ah notoriety people, whatever it is, um ah that it was held Kathmandu to discuss all of this.
01:05:52
Speaker
The Sherpa community came out real strong, kind of talking about the lack of experience in the mountain, the lack of training for the Sherpas. The Khumbu Climbing Center is doing a great job of of training a lot of Sherpas. But just like this year, um you know, the the gentleman That got drafted to be a guide, um then ended up getting left behind and and basically self-rescued. is is a It is an amazing, an amazing story.
01:06:19
Speaker
um But, you know, that a word had it that that he didn't even know how to use a stove. Right. you know a gas stove. so you know And then there was a story about five or six years ago of Tanji Sherpa that was with a Pakistani military, older gentleman in his 60s, refused to turn around, ran out of oxygen. Tanji gave him his oxygen. They both ended up collapsing right below the summit. um And ah he was they were both rescued by other Sherpas. But ah this young man, he was a porter.
01:06:54
Speaker
he was He'd never even been on Everest, and he ended up tragically losing all ten fingers to frostbite. um So, it's you know, it's stories like that and and the one of this year that causes, know, the Sherpa community to say, you know, enough is enough. And it's being led by some pretty high power people, you know, like um um Kamirita Sherpa, who got his ah record 32nd summit at age 56. You know, and people like Andorje, who was with, you know, Hall and Ball back in 96 and been working for Adventure Consultants ever since then. He got his 25th summit this year.
01:07:30
Speaker
ah So the Sherpa community, I think, is beginning to speak up. the Last time I saw this happen in Ernst was after the 2013 Manislu avalanche, which killed around 13 people, I think, somewhere in that neighborhood, that the Sherpa said, we've got to change this.
01:07:43
Speaker
And what changed then was that they began to to form their own companies. And so that's where companies like Seven Summers Trek and Elite and 8K Expeditions, it was, ah Asian Trekking was really the dominant in-country firm, but now we've got ah there's there's I think there's 2,000 registered trekking companies. ah And again, Nepal has no ah requirements for being a mountain guide, unlike in the U.S. where the National Park Service gives out concessions. Same thing in Europe, in the Alps, you know you've got some really high bars. that, ah you know, who can who can guide, who can call themselves a guide.
01:08:20
Speaker
So Nepal has ah has an opportunity to clean things up. ah So if I was going to make a prediction for the future, ah and unfortunately, i have said this way too often that I think this was the year that things will change. um i thought that I thought the deaths was a Rubicon. I thought we weren't going back. And um instead, what I keep seeing is that a lot of the bad practices are um codified ah by the unwillingness of the guides to make changes that would put revenue at risk.
01:08:52
Speaker
But maybe this will be different. Maybe through this bill, you know, the the difference between this bill and everything else we've ever seen is those things, they show up in Nepali newspapers.
01:09:04
Speaker
And it's not law. And there's no way to enforce it. And so it's ah it's an idea. This is a law. Right. Yeah. and everybody will know it's a law. We went through a process where everybody had a chance, at least at least the the interested parties had a chance to voice their opinions and weigh in. So they had some some opportunity to shape it. So that but that's if those people are taking advantage of that, it sounds like, which is which is good. Yeah. yeah Yeah. No, and I think it's... And I think it will go through. I think it will it would be 7,000 meters anywhere in the world.
01:09:39
Speaker
Yeah. that's like That's my forecast. Okay. Great. Well, we're going to check in on that forecast next year. One of the things that you said last year ah was that you thought there was going to be more commercials that more commercialized, like other ascents outside of... of avarice And that didn't happen. i don't think that I've seen anything like that. And, you know, when you said that, I bit my tongue because I tried to do that for years, sell those. mens And it's, it's very difficult because you, there's such a small pool of people that are actually capable of, yeah of partnering with ah a guide to do a real climb.
01:10:19
Speaker
um That, and and then And then you're like, yeah, we're going to do this thing. It's going to be harder. It's going to be more expensive. And we're going to, by the way, we only have like a 20% chance of actually doing this.
01:10:30
Speaker
Other than that. ah yeah So there's just, you know, it's just hard to make all those those things line up. And I feel like it's needed, you know, to your point. And I think one of the one of the things that I think all of us would like to see, and I think What other the things I like to imagine is the intent of the 7,000 meter in Nepal requirement is to just spread out the traffic across more mountains and take take that pressure off of those few who highly trafficked, the Maras, Amidabhams, and all
01:11:03
Speaker
push it out to some so other places because there's plenty of beautiful mountains in Nepal ah that ah that could would be excellent venues for for mountaineering. And they're just they're just a little, like the logistics are a little complicated or, you know, they just haven't...
01:11:20
Speaker
They're a little out of the way. They're a little expensive. They're a little unknown, whatever the thing is. And so people don't don't go to them. So I will say on my anywhere else in the Himalaya, nobody would pay any attention to it. But because of where it is, like hundreds of people climb it every year.
01:11:36
Speaker
ah One of the things I'll say about the um not the commercialization of unclimbed peaks is that there are companies like um Climbing the Seven Summits and Garrett Madison and a few Nepali companies that attach that as an option to a standard climb of like an Aminablam or K2 or an Akin Kagwa. They'll say, we're going to go do it a climatization on an unclimbed peak. So they're not offering it standalone climb, but they're offering it as as an option to an existing one. And that kind of mitigates some of that, you know, the business model aspects of it.
01:12:10
Speaker
Yeah, yeah, that that makes sense. That makes sense. So, Myron, what are your predictions for 2027? going pin you down. Last year you dodged the question, but this year we're going to get you on the record.
01:12:22
Speaker
Oh, did I? Wow. and I think that things will be improving in all aspects. I think they are. But hopefully maybe more regulations to some extent. I think many of these big...
01:12:40
Speaker
big names in Sherpa community, the leaders, ah let's call them. They have been asking for it. I think for everybody's, ah you know, well-being and safety, it will be it would be beneficial. But what that that that looks like, I'm not sure exactly. Are we using the numbers? I'm not sure. The mountain will still dictate the rules, so the weather, the jet stream. I think that's not going to change. The conditions seem to be just getting drier and drier.
01:13:07
Speaker
As I was there, I think two years ago in in March, there was no snow, which was really surprising to me. It was kind of winter and the locals told me that it hasn't snowed properly in winter in 10 years. So it's it's scary. But um I think got otherwise ah people will hopefully seek more coaching and guidance, ah you know, to to prepare properly to know what they are.
01:13:30
Speaker
what what they're doing. And hopefully China will open for Westerners. So I think it can be. So I had definitely for a large number of athletes that would prefer to go to the north side.
01:13:42
Speaker
um Otherwise, you think they're going to pass the 7000 meter requirement? Yeah, ah I don't know. Honestly, I thought it was already passed, but it doesn't seem to be. But I agree with Alan. and I think that actually including Amadabon, for example, it stands there. Like it's 6,900 meters almost. And so technically, it's very much more technical than anything on the south side on on the normal route.
01:14:08
Speaker
I would say that it passes the requirement and other other mountains in the world or the 7,000ers in Pamir Mountains in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. think that's Tajikistan.
01:14:19
Speaker
epic lightning and stuff. So I think that makes sense. But also actually to spread the people around Nepal, the other parts of Himalayas, ah I think that maybe is their goal. And I don't think that's bad. but It's actually beneficial for for the people. And so it doesn't need to be only Kumbu, but Kumbu Valley.
01:14:41
Speaker
yeah Well, I'm going to take the other side of this bet and I'm going to say that they're not going to pass a 7,000 meter requirement. And I'm going to go on the record saying that Tibet will be open next year for business.
01:14:56
Speaker
I could be wrong, but I'm going know i'm going to put it to put it out there. So, you know, where can people follow your Everest coverage and reach you at at Summit Coach Allen? Yeah, just ah the the gateways just go to alanarnett.com. So A-L-A-N-A-R-N-E-T-T-E.com. And that's got links on homepage to everything I do.
01:15:17
Speaker
Great. Great. And Martin, give us a ah little summary of what it's like working with you as a coach.
Uphill Athletes Resources and Contacts
01:15:25
Speaker
i we You can contact me through Uphill Athletes and so i like to look at your history, look at see where you are, test it and then just talk about your climbing plans, talk about what you've done so far. I like to talk about strategy, ah the climbs that will prepare you for your goal. I love it. I love i think I have a good knowledge about
01:15:48
Speaker
the seasons and the different mountains that they have some specific factors that will help you ultimately for the bigger climbs. I think that's beneficial and otherwise I'm sports come from a sports science. So science based approach and also mixed with my experience.
01:16:06
Speaker
Yeah, and i've i've seen I think you're really good at this. I've seen you do this countless times where really like that assessment planning piece of really like figuring out strengths and weaknesses and how to integrate, and not just physical, and how to integrate a plan that gets people to the mountain that is where they're ready. So if any of you want to understand how the world's highest mountains work,
01:16:31
Speaker
are really climbed reach out to us here at uphill athletes uh we do this every day all day you can find our training plans our coaching and if you get something out of this please subscribe hit that like button and we'll be back next year with alan and martin to see if any of our predictions come true thanks for being here guys thank you
01:17:11
Speaker
real quick before you go, everything we publish, the articles, new podcast episodes, and the live webinars are announced first in our newsletter. You can elect to receive between one and three newsletters a month. They're written by myself and the coaching team.
01:17:29
Speaker
And if you want them, sign up at uphillosity.com. Thanks for listening and we'll see you in the next one.