Transcript
Speaker: On yesterday's preview show, I was the Marcelo Bielsa Premier League meme, Barclay's Premier League meme. I wanted one easy knockout game for Argentina. And admit, they delivered. They did it. It was as easy of a World Cup semi -final as you can get. Yeah, they were just spending the last 10 minutes just singing. The bench, the fans. It was a celebration. You don't get that that often in the World Cup. It was awesome.
Speaker: From what I can tell, and this goes out to the great Dan Edwards on Twitter, who is another Anglophone journalist based here in Buenos Aires. This was Argentina's first World Cup knockout match that wasn't like complete sweat tension drama since the match against Mexico in 2010, which was three World Cups ago.
Speaker: So it's fair to say that they earned it and admit they earned it with an incredible performance. We'll get into everything in a little bit, but this was just Argentina being really good and doing everything that they have done without letting the stupid stuff happen going the other way. I agree. I think yesterday we outlined the ways this match could go and I think we both
Speaker: said it would be very cagey but Argentina were favored for a reason and I know we both said this could be the one where Argentina do all the things they're supposed to do and play their game script and Croatia could be done in.
Speaker: And it went that way. So obviously, no matter what way it went, we might have been able to take credit. And I'm not sure we expected it to be this comfortable for Argentina. But Argentina on balance for their performances through now six games, we're do a good game like this against a good team because Argentina are in that top tier.
Speaker: in the upper echelon of contenders, they've deservedly made the final. And this was everything good about their team distilled into performance. We were waiting for a game to go the way our Gina wanted to go.
Speaker: And was it lucky that in ways that it went that way? Sure, but they were due for a game where the things that they cause on their opponents happened for them. And that's how it went. So Argentina totally deserved, and we'll talk about it, but this went about as comfortably as it can go.
Speaker: This is the World Cup After Dark podcast in case you didn't know. If you've made it to episode 23, you probably know who we are. You probably know what we do. I'm Austin Miller. He's a bit malic. I didn't have the confidence to say it on yesterday's show. I didn't have the confidence to fully back that this was actually going to be the easy game because every time in a World Cup that you talk yourself into one result, you immediately start talking yourself into the other result, right? That's just how it happens.
Speaker: But what made it happen that way? Was it simply that Argentina got a break or two and then boom, the floodgates opened and Croatia never found a foothold in this match? Or was there something more in it?
Speaker: That's an interesting question. I think the game was really tense in exactly the way we thought it was going to go until the first goal. But the first goal was not necessarily all luck. It came from a penalty kick that came from Argentina being vertical and transition. And they were able to just get Croatia out of their shape. And then Argentina went up 1 -0 and it happened again.
Speaker: on like a 90 -yard counter from Julian Alvarez, which we'll talk about is just an all -time World Cup goal for good and silly and stupid. But from there, 2 -0, it was kind of tough for Croatia. They are really good at playing games in a neutral or close to neutral game state. And they got caught out twice.
Speaker: Argentina were ruthless in their chances, taking their chances. And a place I want to start.
Speaker: on this is that Brazil, if you look at the XG between Brazil and Croatia and then Argentina and Croatia, they're actually very, very similar. I know they're two completely different games, but Brazil were perhaps unlucky not to have scored more in regulation and not to have scored again once Neymar gave them the lead. Argentina just kind of took their chances and put Croatia away. And they didn't allow Croatia to hang around in this game where Croatia tried to kill the games, you know,
Speaker: nature with their possession the way they do it, but instead they gave up that goal on verticality and from there they were kind of, they couldn't really recover. Another thing that we were going to say on yesterday's podcast and that didn't is Dejan Lovren and he was at fault on that first goal for Argentina. Yeah, he's out of the four center backs on the field, the worst one, perhaps the worst player on the field.
Speaker: And that's not in like a negative way towards Lovern. He's an old center back. And obviously when you're that old, you lose your space. And look, Tiago Silva, Pepe, they've been good this tournament. Lovern has been good this tournament.
Speaker: But he's just a few yards behind the line for Croatia. And that allows Enzo Fernandez, who has truly been, I think, the X factor for Argentina this tournament, we could talk about in a second, plays an amazing ball. And then Alvarez gets in. And his first touch is a shot. It's not a great shot. But it's enough of a shot to get past the Croatian keeper.
Speaker: Levokovich has to foul him there. And yeah, it's a penalty. Is it tough because what was he supposed to do? Sure, but that's where Julian Alvarez has also been the other X factor, right? Those two players, plus everything that we will say about Messi, have made this Argentina team worth it for being a top two, three team in talent here at this Cup.
Speaker: Yeah. And I think you're spot on in, it's a penalty. Like I don't get the argument that it's not a, what is the argument that it's not a penalty that it's contact in the box. He cleans them out. And it's also the type of play that if
Speaker: Alvarez is unimpeded, he can actually go and play the ball. It's not one of those types of plays where the ball is long gone and the foul occurs and you're like, it's a penalty, but he's never getting that ball. There's a situation in which he's unimpeded and he actually gets back to the ball and is able to make a play on it. It's absolutely a penalty. I don't see any sort of argument that it's not a penalty.
Speaker: And because it's a penalty, how about the penalty that Lionel Messi took a minute? That is exactly what Harry Kane wanted to do in the quarterfinals. And it's what Lionel Messi did. He knew this is a gigantic goalkeeper. I'm not taking a chance that he can save it. I'm putting it where there's no chance he's getting to it. And I'm going to blast it into the top of the net and it's going in. That is a confident penalty. That is the penalty of a player that is locked in on form.
Speaker: And that is the penalty that Argentina needed in that moment. Right. Exactly. And we talked about penalties a lot this tournament. Yeah. And we've talked a lot about what's the strategy for them. And you might think that the best penalty to take is into the corner. But if you are a rangy goalkeeper, you can get there if you guess enough.
Speaker: Unfortunately, it's kind of counterintuitive, but a little to the side but up is really hard to save. Because if a keeper dives, he can't really get to that. He's committed to the outside third of the goal. But when you put it up there, you can't
Speaker: You can't guess that way. You'd have to step and jump up, which is not a thing that any keeper ever does. And the reason why is because it's a very high degree of difficulty penalty to take. Because when you're going for that elevation, you're risking hitting the bar or going over the bar.
Speaker: You also, if you don't hit it hard enough, it's kind of a chip that's the difference. So that is a true unsavable penalty. It's what Kane was going for because if a keeper dives to that side, he can't get it. Very obviously Lionel Messi being Lionel Messi.
Speaker: It was an amazing penalty. It was the penalty that Argentina needed. And then it kind of felt like this game was going to be testy, interesting. And then Julian Alvarez goes on an insane World Cup run that just never gets stopped.
Speaker: enough like the he loses the ball twice and it just bounces back to him and before you know it it's like oh my god he scored and that was literally my reaction i'm watching it it's like oh he's going oh he should have passed he still has it oh it got back to him oh my god he scored and it's it's just an insane run
Speaker: that, yes, is fortunate because the ball bounced his way twice. The Croatian defense didn't handle it, but it's still a really good finish. I think it's an underratedly good finish from Alvarez when he's actually in position with a chance to put the ball under the back of the net. Agreed. It's what makes Julian Alvarez very, very good. And you see why Man City bought him because he is a classic number nine in that he could score
Speaker: you know, kind of half -ish or great chances by brute force, sheer will, and then obviously a good finish because like you said, it's underrated. He's eight yards from goal, but he just puts his foot through the ball and it's straight, gets the angle right. But yeah, this is unfortunate for Croatia, I think.
Speaker: You're right, we're giving the credit to Alvarez first. Anytime you sprint 60 yards with the ball and go through three defenders, that's legendary heroic stuff. But Croatia are just a team that almost never get opened up like this. And it's easy to say, oh, Argentina, we're up one. Croatia were suddenly vulnerable to the counter -attack. That's not really what happened, right? No.
Speaker: you know set piece maybe a corner kick and he gets it but he's got Croatia always track back very well they had not at this point sold out numbers he just gets it and he's the right blend of fast and strong there's a defender trailing him the whole time and he can't get on him he's like a runaway freight train and that quality in him right I think that one of the biggest differences between Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez is Lautaro Martinez is more
Speaker: pace finesse, and then Alvarez is more pace, stronger build. And I'm not saying Lautaro couldn't have scored this goal, but there's no mistake that Alvarez runs through two missed clearances from Croatia, because he's just a runaway freight chain. In that sense, and I think you mentioned this to me before the podcast or in a text, he makes his own kind of chances, right? That's what he does well.
Speaker: It was a weird goal. You can't just say, like, this was all on Alvarez or this was all Croatia's defending. It was a very weird goal. But on the whole, like, that's what he's in the squad to do. And this is a game, this was a game of half -ish chances, and Argentina just were ruthless in the way they forced these two chances under Croatia, right, by being dangerous and then finishing them.
Speaker: Yeah, and I think Alvarez has that thing in him where he can score a crap goal like that. And it's not that the goal was crap, but when you are a high level world -class number nine, you have to have some of that about you. It's what makes Harry Kane so great is that he just gets into good positions and finds ways to score. And I think that's what makes Julian Alvarez so intriguing as a player
Speaker: is yes, he's super skilled. He's great, but he's got enough chunk on him that he can kind of fight through physically and just make things happen. And that's exactly what happened on this school. I don't really like to turn the world cup into a conversation about club football. I think there are two distinct things, but you talked about Enzo Fernandez. He had the ball to Julian Alvarez on the first goal. We talked about Julian Alvarez.
Speaker: These two players, I think, are kind of a condemnation on scouting in Europe. Hulan Alvarez is at Man City and that's a good job of scouting. But Enzo Fernandez was bought for 12 million euros by Benfica in July. And he was gonna be at River Plate here in Argentina through the end of the year until they got knocked out of the Libertadores and they accelerated his move to Europe. Enzo Fernandez is almost assuredly going to be sold for a stupid number.
Speaker: in January, maybe. It might literally happen in January. He might only spend six months at Benfica. And it's, he hasn't changed a lot as a player. It's not like he's grown massively in six months. He's exactly the player he was at at River. The fact that Benfica got him for that price and now somebody else in Europe is gonna have to pay five, six times more. Great job by Benfica. Great job by River Plate, who hung on to a 20 % add -on for future sales. That's good.
Speaker: But I just wanted to make that point to kind of express that these are super high level players that should have been had earlier. I'm with you completely. I think this necessarily isn't a failure in scouting. I think this is the way the big clubs operate is the biggest clubs is that they say we'll wait for the Benfica's Porto's X's clubs three to eight in the Bundesliga clubs seven to
Speaker: to identify the players for us, and then we'll buy them, right? Yeah, money's no object, right? So, Real Madrid, they're signing this wonderkid, Endric, from Palmeres, your club. And we're really in the weeds here, but he was such a big talent, they couldn't ignore how good he was, and he gets straight there. But in absence of that super, superstar pipeline from, you know, Libertadores Club to
Speaker: 15 in the Premier League.
Speaker: European Superclub, there's always some intermediate step. And you saw that a really good example of this is like Miguel Almorón, who goes to Atlanta United before he goes to Newcastle. And now he's having a good season at Newcastle. And if he continues, then he might go to a bigger club. But that's two intermediary steps.
Speaker: My point is just the European clubs don't have to do it to finish the point coming back around to these players The reason why maybe they should have been scouted earlier to your point is the profiles they fit and all you have to do is watch them play and it should have been apparent that Alvarez is a very good number nine who gets into goal scoring positions and It's really funny to me that he's through Benfica because this Benfica and Portugal just did this with Darwin Nunez. Did they not?
Speaker: Well Alvarez went straight to Man City from River Place. So he's a bit of a different case. Sorry, Enzo Fernandez went to bed. You're exactly right with Enzo Fernandez. He's a great modern player and fits exactly in the system of a modern. So yeah, thanks for clarifying that. And what I heard, I don't know where Fernandez is going. We have some friends in our group chat that seem to think Liverpool are going to want him. I don't know if that's the case. But Liverpool right now, their best center defensive midfielder is Fabinho.
Speaker: And Fabinho is on the wrong end of the agent curve. So right now, the reason why the number is going to be astronomical is because you could have your star CDM for the next five, six plus years if it works out. Obviously, a lot of things have to go. But he's in that, right? He's in the Casamiro Fabinho
Speaker: Paredes is already at a PSG, like he's in this class of players already. DePaul is the same way. He's at Athletico Madrid. So like, why wasn't this guy on the radar earlier if he's, there's a bunch of talented South American players in this position that have this skill set. I guess he was kind of late on to the national team scene, but there should be more club scouting identification in place.
Speaker: Also, that River Plate team with both of these players got knocked out of the Libertadores by the 25th best team in Argentina because football remains the stupidest of the sports. Sorry, I sidetracked us there a little bit because I just wanted to get that point. So Argentina then admit they get to halftime at 2 -0 and you know what's coming at this point.
Speaker: It's the moment for Croatia, the moment that every team has in the World Cup. They have to throw everything at this game and they do it and they're not super efficient. They make two changes at halftime. They make another change quickly after. And then Lionel Messi just has one of those moments that Lionel Messi just has, right? And the center back Guevardo has had a very good tournament has been the kind of
Speaker: Faux breakout player of this World Cup. He's been good at the club level. It's not like he hasn't been incredible. He hasn't been world -class.
Speaker: and he got cooked by Lionel Messi. Lionel Messi took all the hype that Gavardo has got at this World Cup and just used it as fuel for the fire. Turns him in inside a paper bag, inside, outside, inside, outside again, beats him and sets up Hulain Alvarez. It's 3 -0 and Argentina are cruising to the World Cup final. This goal is just, Messi is just insane. You just run out of ways to say it.
Speaker: Yeah, there's not a lot else to say. You described every part of it perfectly. And I think it's interesting to talk about how the game got there. As you said, Croatia throw on some subs, right? They take off Pasalic, who's their right winger, and so saw their left back.
Speaker: Yeah, they put Yvonne Parrisage at left back. You know, he's an attacking player, so you have now two attacking players inside. Great. Quizha at this point are opening themselves up. They weren't doing that in the first half. They are now opening themselves up. Before this goal happened,
Speaker: Scolone had done his switch to five in the back, right? He puts on Lissandra Martinez for Paredes, who was in, so he's switching out of center midfielder. Good game from Paredes, by the way. He was very good in stopping Croatia's very, not stopping, but slowing down. Croatia's very opponent in midfield. Anyways, what this happens when Argentina's back to five, they're counting on, you know, one on two, two on three, on four type of transition moments. And Messi,
Speaker: is so good at hold up play for being, what, 5 '8"? Because the ball comes to him, and you can't steal it off him. And here he is. He's 90 yards down the field in Argentina's perspective, and he's one on one with the center back. And how many players here are just holding the ball up to wait for the attack to come to them? We're trying to buy a foul, right? They're trying to get the contact, go down, get a foul, slow the game down. And then, as you said,
Speaker: It's just messy at his prime, right? He's not the full sprint speed, step over, you know, no shots at some other players in his generation. But what he is is all body faints and, you know, shifty, constant. It's like, it's almost kind of like when you go to play pickup basketball at the Y and it's the old dude, right? It's like this dude should not be good, but he just has moves.
Speaker: Yeah, and it's what's always been tough about Messi. His center of gravity is so low, he just can hit at his burst of acceleration.
Speaker: And that's all on full display. And yeah, Guardial has had a great tournament. He, to add on to what you said in the club football theme, RB Leixing turned down a bit of 90 million for him. That number is assuredly going to be 130, 140. This should not diminish his value. But it's funny to imagine that Lidl Messi saw the best center back at the tournament and said, you're nothing compared to
Speaker: to my tricks. It was awesome. It's like what else can we say about Messi? He's at his age.
Speaker: Still the best player in the World Cup, maybe the one in the top two. It's stupid how good he is. And from then on, it's pretty much cruise control for Argentina. So much so, admit that it's human victory cigar time for Argentina. Paolo de Paolo makes his World Cup debut. A one -fourth sighting. I think this was good man management by Scoloni. This game was over.
Speaker: you want to get some players off, get a little bit of rest. I think he probably should have taken Messi off, but I understand the reticence to do that, especially because Messi is so intelligent as a player that he knows, look, this is a three -nothing game with 20 minutes to go. I don't need to expend any useless energy here. He's not chasing back anyway, and that's fine. He doesn't need to chase back. And so Argentina see out an easy World Cup semi -final win, and we saw a pilot of all in the World Cup. How about that?
Speaker: Yeah, it was fun for Argentina. It was a romp. The vibes we've said with Argentina, it's the roller coaster. The vibes were great from the second they scored till the end of this game. And I think we were actually pretty spot on in how this game was going to go for the first 40 minutes, right? Paredes came in exactly what we said. McAllister was the left winger, but also kind of shuttled in. Taglia Fico was very good at left back.
Speaker: Right back, Molina was awesome. I mean, you just look at what's really impressive for Argentina is every player on the field is playing their role well.
Speaker: And that's a credit to Scolone who has put them all in positions to do it, right? They've flip -flopped between formations. A lot of teams are rolling out their same guys. He went to five. It's a big game for Lissandra Martinez against the Netherlands. This is a big game for Paredes and from Callister, and they all just played to their roles so well.
Speaker: It's all around Messi, right? What makes Messi so good is that DePaul and Molina on the right side are really good at occupying defenders to give Messi space. And Alvarez occupies the back line. And Enzo Fernandez is pink. This team is oiled really well. And we'll see what happens tomorrow with Morocco versus France. Obviously, the big question for Argentina is, yes, they're good, but are they better than France?
Speaker: and we don't know until we see it, but if it is France...
Speaker: Argentina are not going to go into this game as underdogs. And I know that's crazy because France on paper has better talent. But this is the Argentina that we had been hoping for all tournament. And it's assuredly not going to be as smooth as this against either opponent. It will be hard. It's a World Cup final. But this is why they're so good is because their players know their movement, their roles perfectly.
Speaker: They have Messi and multiple other game breakers as well to go with him. They're just this. This is why they are a World Cup favorite. And this was awesome. And Croatia, you know, they were a little unlucky today, but there's not a lot they can really say that they did terribly wrong here or that they can feel terribly hard done by. They came into.
Speaker: an opponent that was just on its best day and kind of didn't give them anything. Right, Christian did not create at all in this game.
Speaker: And I think to go back to your point about the individuals who have played so well for Argentina, I think there's a really interesting decision on Sunday between Acuna and Talia Fico who starts at left back. I think that's very intriguing and that could probably perhaps even change depending on who the eventual opponent is. But there's also no ego with this Argentina team. And that sounds like an easy thing to say, but we've seen it with other teams at this World Cup.
Speaker: And that every single player on this Argentina team is absolutely ecstatic to be there and to play whatever role they're given and play it as well as they possibly can. And you've seen that with the changing of the formations with players coming on and playing in particular moments and only having particular moments to play. I think that really works in Argentina's favor as well. The roles are clearly defined
Speaker: And when you come into a game, you know what role you're coming into and you know how to play it and you know what you have to do. And that, I think, has really helped them be successful at this tournament. Yeah. And another note on this, right? Scoloni has also been very good. We've kind of talked about it. We've hinted at it. We've danced around it. But to address it directly,
Speaker: It's his decisions that are putting the players in roles to succeed. Going to five against the Netherlands was smart. Getting Paredes in the squad and having Paredes, Fernandez, DePaul, and McAllister to deal with Croatia's talented midfield was smart. It was a four on three advantage when McAllister is defending because when you watch Argentina without the ball, it's really a
Speaker: four four two ish. Yeah. And the four players can come in because Messi and Alvarez stay high. Messi doesn't track back. He doesn't need to. That's how good the runners are. This is all built to accentuate their strengths and to protect their weaknesses and
Speaker: It's all working well. And last note about it, just from Croatia's point of view, this is where their strengths have been awesome all tournament. But if their midfield was kind of taken away from them, they didn't have a great striker to outlet. Kremricz was good, but he wasn't great in this game. And then Dejan Lovren, he was a weak link.
Speaker: Dejan Lovren is still a good player at this point in his career, but when you're in a World Cup semi -final and you have the worst player on the field, he got beat on one goal and then he and the defense were responsible on the second goal for not stopping Alvarez. These are the margins at a World Cup. Yeah.
Speaker: Very quickly, not even very quickly, but to kind of close this out, I did something today that I'd wanted to do all World Cup, but didn't have the confidence or the moment to do. And finally, when the game got to 3 -0 for Argentina with 10 minutes to go, I said, okay, I'm going for a walk. I'd wanted to all World Cup. I'd heard the stories about what Buenos Aires in particular is like when Argentina are playing.
Speaker: But I also really liked the football and I wanted to cheer the football. So I hadn't had the comfort or the moment to feel confident enough to go for a walk. But at three nil in the 80th minute, I put on my shoes and I went for a walk and it was an otherworldly experience. I've been out in Buenos Aires at 2 a .m. on a week night. My job has me do that just about three times a week. It was more desolate than that, even just
Speaker: Things are, but also like not because it's almost like the world is working, but there's nobody doing anything. So all of the city transit buses are passing, but there's nobody in them. All of the cafes are all set up and theoretically open, but there's nobody in them. There are places that have shut down and put signs in the window, you know, we'll be back after the game. And you walk by every single place and
Speaker: There's just everybody who's on the clock working has surrounded the TV or the radio and is just following the match. And so I walked along and I went for my walk and then the game ends and it's like the city is like reborn and it comes back to life and obviously the joy and the passion and everything from the win was on display as well. It was a really, really cool experience and something that obviously I was super happy to be able to do and also
Speaker: very fortunate to be able to do in a 3 -0 match and not have to pull myself away from the TV. It is super stressful event again, like we've seen in the other finals. Yeah, I mean, I can't add to that experience. That is like, you know, awesome stuff, right? And that's the magic of the World Cup. But to tie it into other things, right? Argentina have always been this football craze nation. That's not a shock to anyone.
Speaker: But there is this feeling of Team of Destiny with this Argentina team. And it's backed up by what's happening on the field. And the crowds, they're what the embassy's reporting, that 40 ,000 people are traveling for Argentina to these games. And let me tell you, to put a point on that,
Speaker: I don't know that there, perhaps maybe Iran, but they were closer. I don't know that there is a country that it was more expensive and more difficult to get to the World Cup from Argentina. Argentina has very strict currency controls. It is very difficult to, it's not difficult to spend money in a foreign currency, but it's very expensive to spend money in a foreign currency. Things cost three times more than they should because of government taxes on foreign currency spending.
Speaker: It is not cheap to get to the World Cup. Let me tell you, the people who have gone there have sacrificed, generally most of them, they're obviously very rich people who didn't have to sacrifice anything. The common Argentine who has gone to Qatar for the World Cup has sacrificed a lot to be there. And I think you've seen that in the way that they've supported the team. This is a once in a lifetime experience. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity and they are now 90 minutes away from winning the world.
Speaker: Right. And so all of that team of Destiny stuff and the fans and everything is hard to shake because it doesn't right at the end of the day, it doesn't translate on to the field. But our big thesis from day one of this podcast was that maybe it does for this Argentina team. And let me tell you, we are at the point where one Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who
Speaker: is a bum in many ways but also one of the greatest players of this century said that the whole thing is rigged for Argentina and when he's saying that you know it's coming from a bitter spot but like
Speaker: Some of the refs, some of the other teams are saying the refs are rigging this too. FIFA's rigging this. I can with full confidence say that's not happening, but that's the feeling that other teams and people around this are taking a more cynical view of what's happening and spitting Team of Destiny into predetermined outcome.
Speaker: It's hard to shake what this Argentina run is. And at the flip side, we said when we picked Argentina, an athletic writer said, this is the romantic pick for the final. We're sitting here gushing about the cafes and the fans who are traveling with their money.
Speaker: and it's messy and it's his last dance. But like, tell me it's not real. And that's what this World Cup magic is all about. So regardless of what happens in the final, this journey to this point has been an epic, epic all time journey for Argentina.
Speaker: It will feel terrible if they don't get it done. And everything we have just said will be of no solace to you or anyone. But just think about 2014 and that moment where they didn't get it and just there was so much burden and pressure on Messi and that Argentina team in Brazil, no less. And here we are eight years later. And despite how tense it has been, this has been a run of joy for them.
Speaker: Yeah, that is like special. This is what the World Cup is about. You do not get strolling second half semi finals ever unless it's the other South American semi final from 2014. But this is magical, right? So enjoy the magic. This is what it's about.
Speaker: Thank God the final starts at noon and there's fewer times from waking up to the match actually starting on Sunday. Today was a quite the experience. All right, that's it for us. We'll catch you guys on the other side. We'll be back tomorrow to recap France and Morocco.
