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Who is the BEST value on the Seattle Sounders?
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With Noah sidelined as he recovers from his big adventure to Marbella, we bring in official Lobbing Scorchers Data Guru/Math and Numbers Expert Spencer Hodapp for some preseason thought exercises related to some of his latest work for Sounder at Heart.
We discuss his findings on several topics, including the Sounders' propensity for getting Liga MX coaches fired, the best contract values for Seattle and throughout MLS, and a few names who could be Seattle's best intra-league acquisitions. Later on, we discuss our 2026 expectations for several Seattle players who could prove integral to the squad's fortunes this season.
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Transcript
Sponsorships and Promotions
00:00:00
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Speaker
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00:02:21
Speaker
Well sir, we got a scorcher today. Gonna be real scorcher today. What the scorcher today? Well it's gonna be scorcher.
00:02:43
Speaker
What's going on, everybody?
Sounders' Preseason Insights
00:02:44
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of Lobbing Scorchers. We are recording this on Thursday evening. The Seattle Sounders have another preseason match this Sunday against USL Championship Outfit in Louisville City FC.
00:02:57
Speaker
and then And then it's the start of the regular season, so we're laying down. one more preseason show and Noah is out of commission tonight. He's feeling sick. He is recovering from his big adventure to Marbella. So to pinch it, we have brought in Spencer, our new lobbying Scorchers data guy, numbers analyst, I think intern, that's kind of your official title, right, Spencer? Yeah. for yeah Those of you who watched the Lobbing Scorchers 4am preseason watch along, which if you didn't, you're fake grinder. We'll remember Spencer. We're going to having him on the show this year and he's going to fill in for Noah here tonight. Spence, thank you so much for hopping on on impromptu pinch hit duty season starting in less than two weeks. And we got a lot to talk about tonight. How you doing, man? How you feeling?
00:03:47
Speaker
I'm doing great. First, I want to say, you know, all glory to God. When Ari gave me the phone call, you know, my agent said, hey, man, this is what we've been working for. It's what all the the hours as an unpaid intern in the ah the basement were for. So, you know, just get out there, do what you can. So just happy to be here, happy to put in a good performance.
00:04:03
Speaker
Big time opportunity to earn more minutes. Just make sure you're in the in the fab in the training ground grinding and given 110% trust it in the process and you'll get the results that you want. Spence, it's exciting times like I was saying this season is is about to start and we've got some fun topics lined up to talk
Impact on Liga Mechies Coaches
00:04:22
Speaker
about tonight. What we're going to do, it's going a little bit of a different show than we normally do with Spence on Spence is into the data he's into the numbers into the math and all all that stuff. And he's been working on some fun kind of data driven projects and articles for sounder at heart that will be dropping soon. But there's a few topics from those that we're going to get to tonight and he's going to kind of present them to ah to you guys and to myself ah putting the context into Sounders as a mega club. We're going to talk a little bit about their propensity for getting Liga Mechies coaches fired semi regularly after playing the Sounders. We're also going to talk about some of the best contract values on the Sounders, but also throughout Major League Soccer and what players around the league could be good fits or targets for Seattle. Spence has got a lot of good thoughts on that. He's got a dollars per goal breakdown. And then ah to wrap it up, we were going to hit some expectations for new and returning faces in 2026. We got a little list of players to hit. So, ah yeah, a lot to get to, Spence. I mean, I guess we should... We should we should jump right into it. So I guess to to start out, i ah you've been you've been you've been working. You've been in the lab for Sounder at Heart writing a bunch of stuff. I've seen your player profiles that you sent us. You got about 40 K words on that. And then you got a couple coming out.
00:05:41
Speaker
ah ah One on the on the Sounders roster building and the best values in the dollar per goal goal scoring breakdown and all that. So I guess first, why don't you ah why don't you just tell us about what you've been working on and then we can kind of give our thoughts on it from there.
00:05:58
Speaker
Yeah, so, you know, thank you for for having me and kind of first part I wanted to to mention was we have two articles coming out or I have two articles coming out. One is kind of like the sounders don't need to trade but like if they if they would, like who would?
00:06:18
Speaker
Who would they trade for? And that has some like outgoing and incoming. And then I've tried my absolute best to put together like cap preseason expectations guide. One of the things I feel is is perhaps a bit unfair to be a Seattle sports player on this wonderful team that we all love is the expectations are sky high all the time. there' is There is not a chance that anybody gets to like get a pass. you know There's no Gauss rule theorem for for guys this year. so You know, just going through the kind of the data going through kind of the research that I've that I've been seeing some of the math that I've been putting together to say, okay, like, what's a reasonable expectation.
00:06:56
Speaker
so when we're having this conversation in the stretch run, you know, we can start saying, hey, this is good or this is bad instead of just going purely off vibes which are notoriously unreliable.
00:07:09
Speaker
Absolutely. So when did what did you ah what did you find from that? What was like the most interesting thoughts or conclusions that ah that you came to while you were doing this recently? Yeah. So so starting it from the very top here. um The Sounders are a bit of a nexus event for a lot of Liga Emekis clubs. I'm gonna go quickly through a list here and I'm sorry for my pronunciation.
00:07:33
Speaker
But 2025 Cruz Azul, Martin Anselmi is fired after 7-0 loss, right? it's It's called shameful, ridiculous in Mexican media. He's immediately thrown out, right?
00:07:47
Speaker
Also in 2025, Pablo Coelho from Puebla is also tossed on his ear ah right before a Sounders match because they felt at that time he could not lead the team to glory against an American side. He has an interim coach, Martin Bravo, specifically two-faced Seattle. Like that was the narrative heading in. in We will not be embarrassed. And and it...
00:08:15
Speaker
Did not work out so well for them that time. 2022, the head coach of Leon was also let go. ah the Seattle famously won that first leg in Mexico 3-0.
00:08:28
Speaker
And that completely destabilized his whole campaign and he never recovered. That was a tailspin of death for him. And then finally, on on Andres Laliti and Pumas in 2022. He lost the CCL final to Seattle, famously.
00:08:44
Speaker
um And that was also a a helicopter death spiral in the BD he could never recover from. And it was also eventually let go as well. So all of that is to say, i think it's really easy if you are just a found fan of the Sounders and you're not really bought into the big oligarchic media operations around the league to kind of feel like the Sounders are a bit of a like...
00:09:09
Speaker
all They're by themselves. They're kind of like one of one, but not in like a top tier way, just like in an other category. You've got your big heavy hitters, Miami, New York, the l L.A.s. And then like somewhere on that list in tier 1.5 is the Sounders. And that's just not true.
00:09:25
Speaker
I don't think there is any club right now, besides maybe Miami, who would not sell their souls for the last decade the Sounders have had. Yeah, all these Liga Mechies coaches getting fired after playing the Sounders is ah is a fun little trip down memory lane. i think my personal favorite on this list is the Cruz Azul guy. We followed the media coverage of Cruz Azul after the famous 7-0 in Leagues Cup last year pretty closely. And, you know, they always get lambasted down there if they lose to an MLS team, especially in the Honk Half Champions Cup or League's Cup.
00:10:02
Speaker
But they really lambasted Cruz Azul for that one. That was tough. The the tabloids were were not happy about the 7-0. We were happy about it. I was very happy about it. But they were not happy about it. But I mean, so do you think ah is there any is is there actually a Seattle centric theme to that that you notice? Because I do look at it and I'm like, well, that could that could be any any MLS club beating a Liga and Mechie's team is going to lead to negative sentiment in Mexico and among their their fan base. That could it could theoretically be something that's not yet necessarily unique to Seattle and it could it could be any club in CCC. You see what I'm saying? true but So did you did you find that this was more frequent occurrence with the Seattle Sounders than other clubs throughout MLS?
00:10:52
Speaker
So i I think it's more in the way in which it happens. you know like No disrespect to any other team that has won down in Mexico, but there is a very big difference of of getting a 2-1 off a 95th minute header and then winning 3-0 in the first leg and being absolutely dominant in possession the whole way through.
00:11:12
Speaker
It's just stylistically the Sounders are able to put together these these stellar performances against midseason opposition at at a pretty regular rate. you know Every now and again you expect a fumble, every now and again you expect like some some variance to come into effect, right?
00:11:30
Speaker
But I mean we're talking about like five coaches here. you know That's not insignificant. um And especially with, you know, the media coverage could very easily also just go, well, they got lucky, right?
00:11:44
Speaker
And I think that's what we've seen over the the last maybe five years. and You know, there's still the little brothers to the north, but they're getting better, like good for them. But like, we're still number one. And I think it's a little easier to kind of hand wave, ah, it wasn't their night. Oh, the, you know, this, oh, it's that, it's travel.
00:12:03
Speaker
When you lose 7-0, when you're outpossessed by a factor of like almost two. You got like a Puskas nominee getting scored on you. let's It's tough. a whos cast on You know what I mean? And it's it's it's rough. you know there's There's losing and then there's losing. And the Sounders don't do a lot of the latter.
00:12:22
Speaker
Yeah, and I think what you hit on is right. Like, it's the nature of some of these results, like the 3-0 at Pumas that you mentioned. And obviously, the 7-0, I would have been much more shocked if that coach had made it through the 7-0 than him getting fired. I mean, at that at that point, I think for any Aliga Mech's club, you know, unless it's like...
00:12:43
Speaker
Well, and especially them because they were – remember there was like the the thing that came out that they they were named like the best non-European club in the entire world like a week before they got Steppenho.
00:12:56
Speaker
That was fire. That was fire. They were. They were. So, you know, in the long and and beautiful history of of America versus Mexico soccer teams, you you got Columbus, Ohio, Dose to Zero.
00:13:08
Speaker
And I think you kind of can start to plant a flag of saying, hey, it's not going to be a fun time in Seattle. they're good with Whether you're coming or we're going, it's it's not great. They're going to have more chances to build on this on this reputation this year with ah with CCC getting underway and Leagues Cup, of course. So let's see if the Seattle Sounders can get another Liga Mechies coach fired in 2026. That's ah that's a good find, Spence. That's good stuff. I love that. um you also ah You've also been working on a lot of kind of MLS roster cost analysis. And you've got you've got tables with a breakdown on exactly what the Seattle Sounders paid, the cost per goal. And there's some really interesting stuff on there that ah that we got to get into. And then you've also got the same numbers from I think you were saying all the teams in MLS, but specifically some of the golden boot contenders from last year. you've laid out exactly the amount of money that ah each team is paying for each goal. And I think when you look at it from a Seattle perspective, it really it gives you for every team but like looking at these Seattle numbers gives you perspective on where the best values on this roster are coming from and I think that's valuable because that could be something that informs their decision making on whether to go and spend a bunch of money on a on a new player or just kind of how they're thinking about the roster value-wise compared to how it's getting thought of from the ah from
Cost Efficiency Analysis
00:14:33
Speaker
the outside. So when you were doing this exercise and doing this cost-per-goal analysis, let's start with ah what you found regarding Seattle, and then we can talk about some of the other and MLS guys. But what were what were your biggest takeaways from breaking down the cost-per-goal for the Seattle roster and and looking at how those numbers came out?
00:14:55
Speaker
Yeah, for sure. Let me quickly just kind of frame this in context. So I was very privileged. I wrote kind of more of an academic paper on on some just external research I did long before I was affiliated with you guys or even, you know, moderately having fun writing at Sounder at Heart. And one of the things I really got exposure to was the kind of under the hood evaluations that GMs, specifically front an office staff, are doing.
00:15:23
Speaker
The easiest way to explain it is you are min-maxing for two things. The number of goals conceded and the number of goals scored. That's it. And every player can be basically broken down into a future value of how many, what's the plus minus goals on the field, right? So basketball, very famous. the on the floor plus minus percentage, you know, if you put someone on the floor, like, do they give you more points or do you lose more points with them on, you know, what the trade-off is. You see it in March Madness, you know, it's it's a pretty fun stat.
00:15:54
Speaker
But this is where this was born out of. I think perhaps a little unfairly, the Sounders front office is being like condemned for frugality for frugality's sake.
00:16:04
Speaker
And that's just simply not the case. um So we'll go through here. and to And to frame this properly, I'll go ahead and I'll give the the goal scores by goal scored.
00:16:15
Speaker
And then I'll give you the cost per goal. And and you just let me know what you think. So we got number one, Danny Mussofsky, 16 goals, just on just under $600,000 per year, average cost per goal of You then have Albert Rusnak, who had a double-double, let's be clear. So 20 goal contributions, I'm just looking at goals here.
00:16:35
Speaker
He's on 2.5 That comes out to 214K per goal. Jordan Morris was seven. Admittedly, he and Jorge Menungu had just about the same playing time. So for reference and context, he's on 2.2 million.
00:16:51
Speaker
Comes out to about three hundred and twenty two k per goal. And then finally, Obed Vargas with five. He's on 134. And that comes out to about 27K per goal.
00:17:02
Speaker
That is a phenomenal distribution. Because specifically what you need to be looking for it and how I think we need to judge Craig Weibel and the whole front office team as they're compiling this roster is up and down. One, are your prime producers producing?
00:17:18
Speaker
And they are. That cost basis per goal, in my opinion, justifies Jordan Morris' salary for another year. Albert Rusnak, it's a bit unfair. He's asked to do more. He's asked to make shot creating actions and all the rest of it. And he also had a bunch of assists.
00:17:32
Speaker
So if you included Insist with him, his numbers are going to be down. That's what I was going to say. He's on a cost basis. If you did it by goal contributions, Rusnak's value would look a lot better than it does purely judging it off goals. Yeah.
00:17:46
Speaker
But if we if we just judge it off goals, even if we just judge it off goals, that is phenomenal. There are some some questionable contracts that that we do not have to get into.
00:17:57
Speaker
um People paid... You know, far more money up front who are nowhere close to that, you know, and and to frame it in perspective, if we aggregate it up to the whole team level, so we're at the team level conversation for the Sounders, um as a team, they're on about three hundred and thirty k per goal So that's total roster, and then you do you do the split between like who's actually playing, and then you prorate the playing time and the contract values and all that.
00:18:24
Speaker
So the math is fun. It's probably a little bit dry for this audience. But that's really, really good. That's in the upper one-fifth of the league. So that's putting them in company with people like you know Philadelphia Union, Minnesota United, Vancouver Whitecaps, San Diego FC, and the Chicago Fire.
00:18:46
Speaker
That is not ultra elite level company. And so I think if you combine the consistent year over year performance of the Sounders with the fact they're able to be more of a money ball team, where is the impetus to spend more?
00:19:06
Speaker
If Brian Schmetzer likes these guys and he's consistently delivering trophies and playoff appearances, and your cost basis is absolutely phenomenal, some of the absolute best, why rock the boat?
00:19:22
Speaker
Why rock the boat? Yeah, I mean, just looking at this list, it's kind of it kind of confirms what some some things that I already thought. Like, that Moose is legitimately, I think he i don't know what where he ranked league-wide and in your numbers, but he's got to be one of the best values in the league at all.
00:19:45
Speaker
36K per goal with the amount of goals that he scored. I mean, that's pretty insane, isn't it? Like that's absurd value. It is. The only person that beats him, and and this is coming from like the top, this is coming from Golden Boot. So I only compared to people who were in the Golden Boot race because Danny Mussofsky was in that race. just can get You don't want to look at a bunch of one goal, one is assist guys.
00:20:06
Speaker
um The only person that has him beat is alonzo martinez from and nycfc who did not play a full complement of minutes this year yeah and he he's out with a torn acl but he was one of the most i think the savviest signings in the league uh for the last was last year his first year in the league or has he been in the league for i think he might have been in the league for two years but either way he was brought in with not all that much fanfare and has provided insane value for uh nycfc before he got hurt and it kind of it makes sense too like with some of the other clubs you mentioned like the philly union like these are clubs the white caps these are clubs that are known for being savvy with the roster building and getting value like this so it is it is good to hear that seattle ranks up there with some of those clubs in this regard.
Player Value and Transfers
00:20:53
Speaker
But like there's it it it is a fun illustration of where the biggest value on the roster is coming from. Like you look at Obed with ah at five goals, 26 K per goal. That's such a good illustration of
00:21:08
Speaker
the type of value that i feel like the the sounders feel like they got that type of value out of him and it helped them win two trophies and perhaps that's part of why they felt like it uh it was okay to sell him for three and a half million dollars or whatever it was with incentives to atletico madrid as opposed to maybe they could have been in a situation where they got those bids from uh from tigress and club america where they might have felt like they had to take it but when you look at the value that he's already provided I think that's something that they're taking into account that maybe people from the outside aren't taking into account. So maybe that that could maybe help people understand ah why they were thinking of that in the way they are in they way they they were. There's a lot of reasons, I think, why, you know, we've talked a lot about Obed's contract and all that and his really insistence on going to Europe over Liga Mequis. All that plays into it. But just just the the value they've gotten with him coming up as a homegrown player and what he did for the first team and helping them win Champions Cup and winning Leagues Cup. That's, you pretty much maximize the value you could have possibly gotten out of the player for the time that he was on the team. So it's interesting to see that spelled out like that.
00:22:17
Speaker
And i think I think as well, if you want to look at some glass half full things about Obed is reputation matters. So the part of the calculus I actually imagine Craig Weibel is performing is um Atletico Madrid are on tear right now. Obed is starting to get minutes. People are talking about him. he's an American. the sound of The Seahawks, excuse me, were in the Super Bowl. That's something the Europeans are starting to get on board with.
00:22:43
Speaker
um That's not insignificant. So I would imagine there's probably 18 months, maybe a little less because it's a World Cup year, where when Seattle gets talked about and gets mentioned, and then Obed's going to get mentioned, and then any sort of player agent's going to realize that You know, one, MLS is is a great place to be as a player, at least it used to be, in terms of like your family can come here, you can get good, you can get, everywhere's gonna have good schools, right?
00:23:12
Speaker
You don't have to just live in the city, you can have the suburb experience. um But then as well as like they did right by the player, right? They could have just said, hey man, we have your contract, pack your bags, you're going to Tigres, tough luck, we want the money.
00:23:26
Speaker
But instead, you know, they've shown, and and this was something Garth was phenomenal at, is we will do right by you. and And yeah, we are maybe taking a gamble on any sort of back end that's going to come our way.
00:23:38
Speaker
But when you go to make that next signing and that next signing and that next homegrown kid, you have a dude you can point to and say, we will do right by you. And we've proven it. We've proven we put the people above profits.
00:23:51
Speaker
yeah That's not insignificant. Yeah, yeah. I mean, no it's a great point. And you also got Paul Rothrock on here at 26K per goal. Rothrock on 104K last year and Obed on 134K last year. that's just ah That's pretty absurd. But like that's the type of... The best teams in this league, I think, probably... When you were going through it, you probably saw the best teams in the league have the highest number of kind of ah players that have these...
00:24:22
Speaker
Yeah, so you you actually kind of see a concentration in the clustering towards the center. So I'll give you an example. We'll go with the highest spending clubs and we'll see if you want to trade places with any of them. Leading the line, Toronto FC, 900k per goal.
00:24:37
Speaker
You want to be in Toronto's position, you want to have Toronto's 2025? They spent, doesn't didn't translate to a whole lot there. Atlanta United, seven hundred and twenty seven k per goal.
00:24:50
Speaker
And that's and I'm not and I'm not in this model prorating any sort of transfer fee, which a professional club I have I've been told would do that. You have to bake in the transfer fee as part of the total compensation for the models.
00:25:03
Speaker
Don't want to trade with them. Inner Miami is a little bit weird. um You know, they scored 81 goals, which is just like by far and away just a ridiculous amount. It is. they also paid Lionel Messi like $29 million. dollars So his cost basis is almost $1 million dollars per goal, but I would argue it's very much worth it.
00:25:22
Speaker
um They ended up netting out at about just a little bit over half a million dollars per goal. I think Messi's one of one. And if you want to try that strategy again with somebody else, good luck. I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. And then then finally, the one we can talk about is the LA Galaxy. They're just under half a million dollars per goal.
00:25:42
Speaker
I don't think there's a single Sounders fan right now that's listening to the show who's like, yeah, I would love to trade places with, you know, three out of four of these teams. And I would argue we can see how well Miami does without Messi when they can't get people on absolute bargain basement deals because they have one of the world's greatest players who people are just performing abnormally to play with. Exactly. That's what I was going to say. Like with Messi specifically, the calculation is just different. Like you could be paying a lot in your cost per goal, but what they're gaining in players willing to come play for their team for way less than their market value
00:26:20
Speaker
That that is i to me, that's a very messy, specific thing. And it's also I've said this before, but it's also not like a blueprint that other teams can really replicate. The only the only way to replicate the blueprint of what Inter Miami did is to literally sign Lionel Messi, specifically him.
00:26:39
Speaker
like And they had to give him ownership, right? and so Oh, yeah. he but um Immense power in the organization. And look, it's all worth it for them. like i'm I'm definitely past the point of trying to downplay what they've been able to do with their roster, especially this offseason. It's gotten ridiculous with them. getting They got Mikael and Bert Arame.
00:26:59
Speaker
and That's just two of the big-time names that they've been able to get over the offseason. And they've they've also been able to sell guys at what I would believe is a little bit of a market inflation. Yeah. Because of like that that quote unquote messy effect. He just makes everybody look that much better.
00:27:14
Speaker
It's the Messi effect. And that's why, like, you know, when I look at Moose, I'm like, that's got to be one of the best values in the league. But if you're talking about the actual best value in the league, they're getting it from Messi at 700k per goal because basically no matter what you paid him, you would be getting just value back in spades for the type of players that he's been able to. And and I mean, and this year there's going to be 14 dudes who took pay cuts to be there. Right. Yeah. So, you know, it was the Barca boys. It was like, ah, yeah, but you got to like pay me to come on, man. and then they're gone, like a lot of them are gone.
00:27:46
Speaker
I don't know, I don't really follow a lot of other teams. I kind of only interested in the Sounders, so I apologize, I don't have like a bunch of stats um kind of prepared. But one last one last note. So I wanna give a couple of outlays. I know we went through kind of the first five of the Sounders. Let's go through the back four, right? Jesus Ferreira on four goals, goal scoring not his primary thing, just under half ah half a million dollars per goal.
00:28:12
Speaker
Pedro De La Vega, three hundred and forty four k per goal. we He only had four. so like did And this, is I think, is only counting league play. Yeah, it I think so. um So obviously you'd love for that to creep up. You got Paul Rothrock, 26K per goal. That's going to go up, but like that's fine. And then you have KKR.
00:28:32
Speaker
on also on 20. That was another that's a name that stands out. They got incredible value and he's going to be on a low number again. like Exactly. So that's what I think. I think the thing you have to kind of understand is if you go through that golden boot, almost all those guys are are at 8, 9, 10, 15, 20 million a year.
00:28:53
Speaker
And the Sounders are just as competitive and their highest paid DP. Let me make sure i get this correct. is um yeah albert on 2.5 2.5 is nothing 2.5 is is pocket change for some of these highest spending teams you know so it's it's it's something where i just you know if there's one thing we could do for the community tonight for the sickos is just take a big breath in the guys are cooking the math is mathing and exhale
00:29:24
Speaker
You can absolutely be upset that that it we're not the buzzsaw and you know it's not FIFA 26 on on you know the PlayStation where we win every game 99 to 0.
00:29:37
Speaker
But we're all right. we're We're more than all right. We're we're sitting very pretty. Yeah, I've always been very much on the page of like, I only care about spending as it pertains to how it affects winning.
00:29:49
Speaker
So if you're not winning and you're also not spending, That's a problem like that's that's where the criticism over your spending gets deservedly notched up because you're not doing ostensibly what you need to do to be more competitive and they contend for trophies with the Sounders.
Future Strategies and Concerns
00:30:07
Speaker
They don't spend as much as like the Atlanta or the Toronto's or the LAFC's or the inner Miami's but they they stay in contention and they stay winning. So my kind of thought on that has always been I don't i don't really care. But I will say, like there is I think there's valid concern with that as to as we launch into this next era of MLS and you got Messi here and everything. like How sustainable is it becomes the question. They've done a great, admirable job of staying in trophy contention and winning trophies with running things how they run it, not spending big transfer fees, putting a big emphasis on youth development.
00:30:45
Speaker
and bringing these kids up to the first team and doing it the homegrown route and, you know, making savvy interleague deals like for Albert Rusnak and Jesus Ferreira. And it's been working. And we saw, I think, how well it worked last year in the in the level of of footy they were able to play at times and taking down Inter-Miami in the League's Cup Final.
00:31:04
Speaker
But there is, i but i would be lying to say the thought doesn't enter my mind of like, can they really, can they keep getting away with it? Can they really keep getting away with it? yeah And I think that is an open question. And from what I've seen, like they seem they seem to have their formula down pretty pat and it's been working. I expect it to work this year, but do you have any concern that eventually it might not work?
00:31:30
Speaker
umm I'm going to give you two separate kind of ideas here. One, um
00:31:37
Speaker
when's the last time we had like a holdout, right? I mean like a firm holdout. I'm not getting on the plane unless my new contract is signed. Was Oba doing stuff like that? No, I don't think Obed was doing stuff like that. Not Obed. oh but Sorry, Obafemi and Martins. oba Oba had a little bit of that in him, right? that's the That's the main one that I remember. Compared to the rest of the league, right? like And and i I just mean this as as a how I've heard it as a fan of this league. I mean, we've not had Luciano Acosta.
00:32:07
Speaker
We've not had Nevander. We've not had, um I'm forgetting his name, the guy was in Brazil and just refused to get on the plane to come back to play the league. But we've we've not had that, right? We've had such great guys that fit with the culture. When is the last time you saw a Sounders player scream at his teammates?
00:32:29
Speaker
When's the last time somebody threw somebody under the bus in social media? When's the last time you had to have, you know, closed door private meeting about behavior? When's the last time we saw mugshot photo?
00:32:40
Speaker
You know, these are pro athletes. like no one's ever No one's ever vaped on the plane, to my knowledge. for this yeah No one's ever vaped on the plane. Shout out Bernadeschi. Shout out Insigne. And so i think that what you have to keep in the back of your mind is to have that you have to be ridiculously tight in your screening process.
00:33:01
Speaker
You know, I've talked to a couple of GMs, I've talked to a couple of first team analysts. there Any given club is looking at about 7,000 people. 7,000 different players per open like positional role.
00:33:14
Speaker
So positional role would be like, you know you have your target forwards and then you have like your off ball forwards, got your goal scoring wingers, your defensive wingers. So those would each be considered a different position instead of just like striker wingers.
00:33:26
Speaker
So for a lot of MLS teams, the bottleneck is price. I would argue for the Sounders, and I'm just guessing here, it's priced like everybody else, but it's the second one of, well, how is he in the locker room?
00:33:37
Speaker
How is he with his teammates? and And I mean, these are these are young bucks, man. These these are these are dudes who ultra competitive, who have every right to be selfish and say it's all on me and my career is in my hands.
00:33:50
Speaker
And we've done a remarkable job of finding dudes who can slot in and say the the team is bigger than us all. we got We got Spencer, our resident Lobbing Scorchers data analyst and numbers guy on the show. If you're listening or watching on YouTube, if you're watching on YouTube, please like the video and follow us on all socials, TikTok, Facebook, and shout out to our sponsors, Hacks and Ferments, Full Pull Wines, and Podium Menswear.
00:34:17
Speaker
Spencer, great stuff on that. it was It was interesting to look through all these numbers. Did you have anything else on the maybe league-wide analysis that you did here? And then we can get into the the next topic.
00:34:29
Speaker
Sure. Let me just end with ah my second point of, you know, if you want things to keep you up at night, Brian Schmetzer is not a young man.
00:34:38
Speaker
The core Brian Schmetzer has utilized is due for replacement. You know, knock on wood, all love, all respect. um But there will be a world that you and I will see where Brian Schmetzer is not the head coach of this team.
00:34:54
Speaker
And that's terrifying. Because any other league, you know, it's it's all about the manager and all about everything else. The Sounders are multi-chain. So you've got like the academy feeding into the defiance, feeding into the college system laterally, and then feeding up into the first team.
00:35:13
Speaker
one bad coach, you know, we get a Phil Neville in there for two years. I mean, that could cause some serious harm. Yeah. That could, that could really, i mean, that could take years to fix just all the way down. I think we take it for granted kind of the stability that Schmetz brings. And also just, ah you know, we talk about it a lot, but his kind of unique, his unique connection and dedication to making the Seattle Sounders the best club that he possibly can. and That's like,
00:35:39
Speaker
ah that's the thing he wants most in the entire world is for the Seattle Sounders to be good and win trophies. And, you know, not that's not a given for any coaching role for any club. In fact, it's actually quite rare. Like most managers for most top-flight clubs throughout the world are people that have been brought out from brought in from the outside, from elsewhere. And, you know, you can have you can be a great coach and be in that situation. But I think there's kind of there's something there's something like,
00:36:09
Speaker
different and organic about the fact that he's really from here and really cares so much about the club and cares so much about the city and i i do find myself worrying or wary sometimes of the era after this because like you said like all it takes all it takes is one neville as they always say all it takes is one neville and you could end up being like i I would be surprised if this club ever bottomed out, knock on wood, but like it's it's not crazy to think about a scenario where in the post-Schmitz era, they end up being like a more 1.1 to 1.3 points per game club. yeah And that's ah that is a little scary to ah to think about. well i think Schmitzer was a player as well.
00:36:53
Speaker
i mean He was there back in the dog days of years... a hot dog and a soda and that's your payment for today kind of thing, you know? So i would imagine that at every step and every level, he he really does have these guys' best interests at heart and he's able to provide, you know, framework and guidance to really prepare them instead of just saying, listen, man, you get 300 minutes. If you can't do better than the next guy in 300 minutes, you're on the pine and then you're out the door, you know?
00:37:23
Speaker
Yeah. Uh, Spence, you also did uh, a thought exercise as part of these sound art at heart projects where you were looking at, uh, kind of, you're playing around with sort of incoming, uh, and outgoing scenarios, correct? Yes. Looking at the the controversy.
00:37:40
Speaker
Looking at what players that Seattle could potentially move off of and players throughout the league that you think could potentially be good targets either in free agency or via trade or whatever the case may be. So ah why don't why don't you tell us what you were what you were cooking on with that, what you found or like why you pick the players you did for why they were potential departures.
00:38:04
Speaker
And then what you were kind of looking at from the outside targets and who they were, which i'm I'm looking forward to getting into because I got thoughts on. Yeah. Yeah. so So this is this is just a thought experiment. I very firmly believe, as one GM told me, it's the goddamn Sounders. They're five deep at every position and they have to have eight to nine injuries before they change how they play. And they're they're the worst team to prepare for. um So that being said, like I don't think they have to make a move. I don't even think they should make moves at this point in the season. I think they're treading water just fine.
00:38:36
Speaker
But like what if, right? like what What would happen? you know who Who do you think could get some good value? So this thought exercise is not what I wish it would be, but like what it could be.
00:38:47
Speaker
And the first the first one off my list, the first one outgoing, is our very own Danny Wasofsky.
00:38:55
Speaker
And and i know I know you're a big moose guy. I'm a big moose guy. Well, okay. like I mean, let's let's set the stage because we just talked about how cost per goal, he's one of the most valuable assets in the entire league. And that's been my argument for why actually moving off him is not as great an idea. people I think people seem to think of it as very binary. Like his stock is the highest it could ever be right now. So you may as well sell right now because the likelihood that he's ever going to be this valuable again is not very high. But when I look at what he did last year, to me, it looked real to me. And I'm not like, maybe I'm just ah blind optimism, blind faith, but I'm not as worried about a guaranteed regression as everyone else is. I think they really unlocked him last year. And you can see the value in the numbers. And it just, it seems riskier to me to move off of value like that when you know you have it and what it did for you last year, you know, than it is to just keep them and keep capitalizing on that.
00:39:51
Speaker
And that's true. and And the thing I would say is, you know, Moose got his opportunities and he got them in Seattle. So then like why Seattle, not other places? One of the things that happened last year is you know, Jordan Morris goes down, Pedro De La Vega goes down.
00:40:07
Speaker
And so the Sounders were very much incentivized to play really choked up and have these intricate overlapping and overloads with really tight passing. Because they had the guys to do it, right?
00:40:19
Speaker
ah Danny Mussofsky was able to drift and ghost and do all of this stuff because he was not seen as a primary threat. I would imagine on any scouting sheet, you know I imagine it's, hey, it's not Jordan, it's Danny, right? Like, better day in the office. And he proved them wrong, to his credit.
00:40:37
Speaker
However, a lot of these guys are back. And as they come back, the way to best utilize them is to let them have space. Jordan Morris is absolutely the most threatening if he has like 10 to 15 yards to run at a center back to then shoot. He's deadly, right?
00:40:56
Speaker
um Pedro De La Vega is best when he has room to operate the channels, whether that's, you know, Albert is Albert and he's phenomenal he's criminally underrated and under-talked about.
00:41:07
Speaker
So I don't think it changes the math for him at all. But, you know, Georgie Menungu, Pedro De La Vega, Paul Rothrock, Jesus Ferreira, all of these guys are really good when they have space to get into because now you're forcing defenses to to play the game of like, what don't you want?
00:41:24
Speaker
Do you not want to give up the space and have balls over the top of your head? Or do you not want them to be able to ping passes in tight circles? All of that means, in my opinion, is the average last touch, I think, is going to regress back maybe 10, 15 yards.
00:41:39
Speaker
And as it kind of recedes back, you're losing the optimal position for Danny.
00:41:46
Speaker
And if that's true, right, and you have Jordan, but you also have Osaze, who has been absolute lights out in the preseason, who is kind of in between. He needs to play. He needs to play.
00:41:58
Speaker
He needs to play, but he's he's kind of in between like a Jordan and a Danny for me. Like he has got no problem being in tight spaces with people around him, and he's got no problem beating you his pace off the top. So and strength too and he's a big boy. I don't think people realize he's, he's not going to get bullied very often. I think he can take it. He is all beax he is the bully. Exactly.
00:42:19
Speaker
I'm really excited to watch him play. Actually. I think you saw a lot of Raul try and do this stuff and he's, he's a little bit shorter and he's a little bit lighter. a little bit of a size differential there. Yeah. And he's like, I'll take it to you anyway. And I think Osaza is going to be able to take it to people whole different way. but But all that being said is, I think you're now asking Danny to do things he's not optimized for.
00:42:40
Speaker
Interesting. Okay. And if he's going to be unoptimized for, and he's already a great asset value, I'm not saying you have to, but like... The price is never going to be higher. Yeah, you got to think about it. You got to think about it.
00:42:54
Speaker
um So that's, I mean, i think he's great. Context is keen. He's brilliant. But um I think you could call up somebody like Austin FC. And say, hey, you guys are very similar. You got two elite wingers on either side who are really good at pinning the ears back and and forcing center backs to come wide to defend. You got some good talent up the middle, up the spine.
00:43:18
Speaker
You got Brandon Vasquez coming off a torn ACL. You got Brandon Vasquez coming off torn ACL. And so I don't remember the alternate they were using, but he wasn't good enough. Not good enough yet. No.
00:43:29
Speaker
And so you're basically playing Schmetzer ball light. Why not have the guy Schmetzer used, right? Who could do the job? Like you saw him do it in the same exact patterns of play, except instead of that being like a secondary pattern the Sounders evolved into, it's your primary pattern that you're working for.
00:43:47
Speaker
So i in my opinion, you know why not have somebody up there where you don't have to retool halfway through the season, God forbid, if Brandon Vasquez goes down again. So I think i think you can move from him, and I think you can get some money and free up some space. Do you want to go to the second one, or do you want to add a final stand for Moose? let's hit these next two guys.
00:44:08
Speaker
Okay. Second, Kim Kiki. This is a bit of a weird one. numbers You were going first glimpse. He's like a lot older. like what How much value does really have and on the interleague? Yeah. um But the thing is, like he's very, very good. He's sneakily good and it doesn't show up. He's about a half goal he's worth about a half goal a game in positive differential. So he shuts out about half a goal's worth of XG every single game. And it's not with elite athleticism, but it is the the thing between his ears, he's just seen so much elite soccer.
00:44:40
Speaker
He just puts out fires. I think that is a veteran presence a lot of teams would love to be able to pay to have. In particular, I think Bradley's New York Red Bulls, they need someone to balance Noah Eilid. They need somebody in that defense who can calm things down, especially as they're getting off energy drink murder ball soccer.
00:45:02
Speaker
And I think Kim Kihee is a good fit there. If they're not interested, Nashville SC has always tried to be an elite defensive team. And I think Kim gives them a pedigree and and a tactical understanding that yeah at times you were able to exploit and expose.
00:45:19
Speaker
So that's my second one. And then my third one, and the one I think I'm going to get the most hate on here, is Alex Vildan. boom but No, I'm just kidding. No, I know. i know. i know. um Alex Roldan is the everyman. He's a stalwart in every sense of that word.
00:45:36
Speaker
I just think DC United, Dr. DC United, absolutely fleeced. I know, I know, I hate that for him, but I think they would significantly overpay for both. It would be an incredible swoop by them. They've been kind of trying to remake themselves over the offseason. They got time. yeah They also broke their transfer record on They've been spending hell of money on like purely attackers, which yes, that kind of goes against. I talk about this all the time. Like feel like teams, they fall into that. Like were talking about Atlanta and Toronto. They fall into this trap of like if we just toss as much money as possible at the attack, we're going to have these like wingers and these number nines that are just so sick. Like the rest of the league is not going to even know what to do. We're going to destroy all of them. But because they have no spine, they have no back line, that doesn't work. And a couple in a couple of these cases, they very clearly have not really thought about how these big money attackers actually fit together. We'll see how that works for DC United. But what I've observed with Atlanta is it's like, yeah, Miguel Amirone and Alexi Marinczyk and Emmanuel Latte Loth are all talented like in isolation. But when you put yeah how do they how do they play together when you actually put them on the field? Turns out the answer was not good. So I think DC United, their offseason, my my initial read of it is like,
00:46:53
Speaker
like you should you should just do what i always say which is like if i was building a roster uh i would start with the most just state-of-the-art best number six i could possibly find and then
Trade Evaluations and Suggestions
00:47:06
Speaker
maybe even in that devoted dp spot to that maybe even be one of the teams that's devoting a dp spot to a to a center back and then you get to like go get your hany mucotar go get your andrews dryer but like i'm just a little skeptical of the dc moves because it's like all right even if ty baribo and this uh i think romanian guy that they signed are good if you got no spine and you got no back line i don't know how much good that's going to do you so sorry yeah was it that was a tangent but like no alex roldon is the type of guy they should be trying to get absolutely even more so than some of these like big money attackers And I fully believe if anybody thought that he could pry them away, they could pry them away, him away, excuse me, from the Sounders, they would be making that phone call.
00:47:47
Speaker
um But like, I also kind of hate moving him there as well. So I also put in the article, I really do think he could fit in really nicely in San Jose. um he it's more It's more about like thinking about their market value than it is saying like, you want them to trade the guy. Like it's, it's, Yeah, no, it's it's it's purely, this is purely the spreadsheet. This is purely value proposition, you know, running the differentials. No one flame Spence for Ponce. No, you can. On Alex Holdon to DC United. it's nice it's just i just I just think you could tempt them into a massive overpay relative to what hes his present future value would be.
00:48:25
Speaker
I also think San Jose could really use him. I think Bruce would absolutely adore him. And he'd probably put a picture up on him on the mantle because he's just such a solid veteran dude who won't poison the culture.
00:48:37
Speaker
And I think the more I talk to people in the league who do this for a living, that is so hard to find. And that's why teams teams fall apart. And you you know that ah you know that Bruce knows this because he's one of the guys who tried to get Paul Rothrock.
00:48:49
Speaker
so Exactly. So now we can move on to the fun part. Now that we've cleared some cap space, now that we've got some money, ah the first one on my big board would be Brooks Lennon. I have said this before, Spence. I have said this before. i kind of said it in passing, and it wasn't a particularly well-received idea. But I'll tell you i'll tell you my project behind it, ah which is that Brooks Lennon, if you look at he was on Atlanta United forever. And by the end of it, he really fell out of favor there. Because there was a long period of time. i don't know if you followed this, but there's a long period of time where they were basically running their whole offense through Brooks Lennon. He was leading their team in touches every single week, every single game.
00:49:35
Speaker
And he's a right back. And minutes and sprint yeah speed. It was like total distance covered. He was the face of the franchise. They were like building the Brooks Lennon stat. The whole team was built around Brooks Lennon, like literally, and their fan base would crash out about it. But so if he's like, yeah, the centerpiece of your club, like he was for them seemingly for a while, if that's not what you want. But what he can do is cross the absolute hell out of the ball very accurately. And he's one of those fullbacks that puts up really good assist numbers because of how good his wide service is. And he is a defensive liability. do you think that's too strong? Like he's not like, i I think he's unfairly maligned for that. Okay. Like we were saying, i mean, he's leading touches. He was, he was running at or more like average Lodero numbers.
00:50:29
Speaker
Yeah, but so my... So Lodero was like eight miles a game. I think Brooks Lagan at some point was like at 7.2. Like he just, he was basically asked to be Marcelo, right? Except he didn't have any of the support Marcelo had in defense. So he's bombing end line to end line all game, every game. And it's like, yeah, dude, there's very savvy coaches. We're going to put you in bad positions. I don't think he's a bad defender though.
00:50:50
Speaker
On the Sounders, though, you wouldn't you wouldn't need him to be defender of the year, just like as a crossing specialist that you can use as more of a depth piece or a spot starter and just a guy that, like Brooks Lennon, you can kind of there's like a floor of assist production that you can kind of bank on if he yeah he plays enough because he honestly, his delivery is that good. i don't know if it's like Julian Gressel, Atlanta United tier, but he's very good at it. And so I think like there could be,
00:51:20
Speaker
there's I think for any really good stacked team like we think the Sounders have, there's room for a specialist like that. So that's why that's this exact thought has popped in my head before, and no one thought it was a good take. So I feel validated, Spence. Thank you.
00:51:34
Speaker
Yeah, so I think the way the way I would deploy him is the the Sounders want to be a left-sided build-up team. They want to run it through Nuhu, right? Nuhu's phenomenal defensively, doesn't get enough accolades for that. Nuhu's very good.
00:51:47
Speaker
So, you know, keep earning it up him. But if you just tell Brooks, hey, man, ah you're going to get the ball and there's going to be gaps in spaces. And if you don't like the gaps in spaces, go up to midfield and there's going to be gaps in spaces.
00:52:00
Speaker
And if you don't like those, go no farther than 20 to 35 yards from the halfway line. So if you're looking at a field, it's like two of the little bars that you see mowed into the grass away from that from the bottom.
00:52:14
Speaker
And your whole job, because we need the attackers to have room to run into because we want to force those bad decisions. If you think you can get a ball over the top for Georgie to run on to, if you think you can ping a diagonal over to Carl Rothrock and switch the field, which we've seen him do for literal decade, then that never goes away.
00:52:32
Speaker
If you want to maybe try and float one in for Jordan Morris, who happens to be a very good header specialist, and it can score that way as well. Or if you don't like any of that, just go ahead and ping a ball, break two lines, and get it into to Albert Ruys' next feet, and let's just...
00:52:47
Speaker
It's just you're able to start your your key passes and and these kind of incisive just knifing attacks from a deeper position on the right side. And if you're doing that from a deeper position on the right side, you can cover for the fact that um he's not bombing up and down the whole time.
00:53:06
Speaker
So then he's able to recover defensively. and He's able to start his recovery at a far more advantageous position. I will say, though, in doing this research, he did go down with some tendon issues. He's currently on trial at DC United. I think he was a cap casualty.
00:53:23
Speaker
And i think I think in order to save some face, he kind of said, oh, my tendon's bothering me. i can't I can't be here anymore. But I think he's still got it. And I think it would be i think it'd be like rage controller quitting to see him in summer just peeing balls around.
00:53:40
Speaker
Love it. Who else who else did you target up? So ah this one is probably super obvious. and We don't have to say a ton of time here, but ah Peter Musa.
00:53:52
Speaker
And I think i think you just dream you just give Dallas a big bag of money. Just a monopoly sized bag of money. And the pitch to Musa is, hey man, we can get you A1 tier one top flight clubs in Europe looking at you and you will have a stage in a platform and we are happy to sell you on man.
00:54:10
Speaker
We just want like 20 and 5 20 goals 5 assists um and he's a guy who can who he does for people who don't follow FC Dallas. I mean he is one of the best and most efficient like volume goal scorers in MLS and like in a doesn't have a number 10 feeding him either. and He does. He's doing this all by himself. Yeah, and in a way that ah it never feels fluky or unsustainable. It feels very bankable with him. like they You can just write him in for to push 20 goals every year. and I think people have been...
00:54:46
Speaker
have been dying for that kind of mold of striker on the Sounders. You know, they, they kind of got that last year in Danny Mussovsky. He might have outscored Moose last year if, ah if he played enough minutes, but in all seriousness, like I think it's, it is ah he's a different, it's a different caliber of number nine in just in terms of his ability to write volume goal scoring.
00:55:09
Speaker
Yeah, and I think, I mean, the the pitch to Moussa is, wouldn't be a lot more fun to win stuff. and And I say that with all love, all respect to FC Dallas, but they've shown they're willing to sell players.
00:55:21
Speaker
And so going to say, hey, listen, we we don't want to go out and spend $20 million dollars on a gamble. pick him up. I'm sure i'm sure he'd love to.
00:55:32
Speaker
how is his for How is he as a work rate defensive forward? Because that would be my other question. is like you know Schmetz is very particular about the types of, this is why he loves Jordan Morris in part, is because Jordan Morris maybe isn't the volume goal scorer that Moussa is, but he's very well-rounded. He gives you a lot in terms of how much he runs, he works really hard, and he's ah he's he plays into this Schmetzer ball that we're seeing with the with the high pressing, and he provides that. Does Moussa fit that, or would that be kind of an issue? So I've not done video analysis.
00:56:06
Speaker
um i'm I'm just looking at this through the numbers perspective. From a numbers perspective, he's no worse than the box standard. you know, center forward. um I would imagine if you did do video analysis, you would really have to quantile it in in a way where he's in competitive matches.
00:56:23
Speaker
FC Dallas has been in some dog days the last couple of years, and I would imagine that it would be very difficult for a player to really hustle when, you know, you're playing some garbage time games. You also have... ah as an interleague addition for this new number nine, which a lot of people would not be happy about. That would be derided as unambitious. But like in terms of MLS proven number nines, that's a fun one, man. Like, I like Hugo Kuypers or Peter Musa or something like that. I would be pretty fun on this. I'm not too sold on Kuypers personally from what I've seen. I see them as a little as kind similar, but maybe they're not.
00:57:05
Speaker
They're similar-ish. um I much prefer Musa. ah i I really think the fan base, if you really break it down, they just want somebody to crack 20. They want somebody to crack 20 goals. And that's fair. And Peter do that. that's totally valid. Totally valid.
00:57:21
Speaker
um If Peter Moussa is just too hard of a get, I think you can buy the Bormans Peter Moussa and Duncan McGuire from Orlando because they just keep signing Brazilians and he is buried on that depth chart.
00:57:33
Speaker
For those of you who don't remember Duncan McGuire came in 23 as a rookie set the league on fire and I think it was Blackpool. um black but club and ink Blackburn, excuse me. Blackburn Rovers, yeah.
00:57:46
Speaker
Blackburn Rovers were like, hey, we're totally gonna sign you. And he's like on the plane and they didn't fax it in time because England is backwards as a country and still uses fax machines. And so he did not end up getting to play, came back to Orlando and kind of rode the bench a little bit because they had a really nice shiny DP they were looking at.
00:58:05
Speaker
um But he's a big physical target forward who thrives on service. So he is 100% in like the same prime JMO mold.
00:58:17
Speaker
I was going to say that's, it's a, I never really thought of it in those terms, but it's a good, a good JMO comp. And he's like a lot younger. He is a lot younger. He is a lot younger. I think he's 23, 24, if memory serves.
00:58:29
Speaker
um Interestingly, he's had two different shoulder artiscopes on his shoulders, which is, I think, a little weird. But shoulders aren't knees, right? So take solace in that. He doesn't need his shoulders to score a bunch of goals. And I think with the kind of service that the Sounders play, he's not going to be asked to shoulder charge.
00:58:48
Speaker
And so you're able to kind of cover for that and and take some of that... grinder off of him and he can kind of pick and choose. So I would imagine, you know, you get him, maybe you stash him a little bit. You put him as like Danny, you let Osazi and Jordan cook.
00:59:04
Speaker
Jordan is getting older um and and, you know, it'll be a sad day when he hangs it up, but guy like Duncan McGuire coming off the bench would probably lighten the mood a bit. Yeah, yeah. No, I mean, he is ah not been getting as many minutes at Orlando City SC, but I think he showed that he's very much like a starting caliber MLS striker whenever they gave him him the chance. And he also, i mean, he came in after an absolutely ballistic college career. i came I think he went to like Creighton, but that was that was a crazy, you don't you don't see guys in D1 soccer like racking up
00:59:42
Speaker
23, 24 goals in a season or would you ever had that last year very often. So, yeah, no, I like that one. That's not as flashy as Musa, but like when you're talking about value hunting, that's that's one that I mean, you know, I think the the Sounders ever getting Duncan McGuire probably never going to happen. because Other other teams in the league should be on that because you're right. Orlando don't really use him anymore.
01:00:04
Speaker
They don't. and And I think what's tough is you just haven't seen him. And, and is that a flash in the pan? Was that him just writing like a super wave of confidence? You know, what's the mentality like what we don't kick the tires kind of stuff.
01:00:19
Speaker
But in, in my kind of thought experiment, you know, the optimal world would be not optimal, but like if, if this is J Mo's last season, right. If he just says, listen, I'm not coming back at 32, 33.
01:00:31
Speaker
um It would not be a ah bad thing to have Osaze and Duncan McGuire battle it out and and force them to to sharpen iron against each other because both of them are in a pretty identical spot of their they need to kind of put up if they want to get out and if they want to get out the league. And I don't think there's anything wrong with being a career and MLS player, but I think both of those guys probably have dreams a little bit bigger.
01:00:56
Speaker
And so let them let them battle and reap the benefits. uh let's uh let's talk about this this last guy from louis bsc what you got here Chris Durkin, this one is a very like Sounders coded one. So he had knee issues, surprise, surprise. He he plays a little bit more of a defensive guy, a little bit of a more of a defensive midfielder.
01:01:21
Speaker
And in my opinion, when healthy, Durkin is one of the best possession distributors combined with a high defensive floor for my money in the Western Conference and maybe the whole league.
01:01:33
Speaker
um He's just big, he's physical, he's imposing. he kind of blends the best of Roldan in terms of doesn't give up possession with Obed just being a fierce terrier after the ball.
01:01:46
Speaker
But he has size. I mean, he's, he's, I think he's at or just above six foot. And one of the things you can kind of pick on the Sounders is aerial battles. I mean, Jackson Reagan leads aerial duels and aerial win rate, but you are constantly asking him to get up into the air. And that's not a great place for your star center back to be.
01:02:05
Speaker
You don't want him to be in the air very often. Right. um So if you can put a defensive, workhorse in there who can kind of cover for that and just be big and physically imposing.
01:02:18
Speaker
And it doesn't matter. Like, no one's getting bullied off the ball. It's, you know, you you lose. I think that could be a great, a great add. and And I also think he solves a very subtle roster puzzle, which is Christian Mulder is almost certainly getting called up, right? Like, he was the poster boy at the Super Bowl for the USMNT. He was. ah I don't, I don't think you could bet on him not going.
01:02:44
Speaker
So I don't think Darkin is going to replace Roldan's engine, which is elite, and his attacking output, which is also elite at 89% passing accuracy at almost 2,000 passes, which is absurdly good. Crazy.
01:02:57
Speaker
But he provides positional stability. So he's he's like a true number six, but in possession and in buildup, I constantly saw him. I did a little bit of video analysis for him. He constantly floats into like that three at the back center back line.
01:03:12
Speaker
He is 100% comfortable being back there. And so if you do want three at the back and you don't love the idea of Nuhu being the left-sided center back, I think Durkin covers that. And I think you can also put him out there if you want to kind of start choking games out and and suffocating the field and just aerial denial, which is something I think, you know, if you want to nitpick, the Sounders could be better at.
01:03:35
Speaker
Yeah, that's a good scout. You know, like I would not have pegged Chris Durkin as um an underrated player in MLS necessarily. But hearing you lay it out like that, it sounds it sounds like he's kind of sneakily a much better, much more valuable player in an MLS than people realize. Probably because he's on St. Louis City as seen right now. He's kind of toiling away there. But that's, uh, that's when you're again, when you're value hunting, like these are the type of guys you like to look at, like the, uh, the Brooks Lennons and the Chris Durkins, they're, they're not the most exciting, but I think, you know, something that Seattle and a lot, a lot of the other really good teams in the league are good at is, is finding those guys. So that's a, that's a, that's a good little list. I was glad to see Brooks Lennon on there to, uh, to validate my previous take on it. And so, uh,
01:04:25
Speaker
Yeah, good stuff. Did you have anything else on any of those guys? And then we can rapid-fire this last little thing we were going to do. Sure, we sure. wrap up um So I think that one of the underrated aspects of Schmetzer Ball is the fact that he is extremely loyal to his guys.
01:04:45
Speaker
And so when you have a dude like... um you know Chris Durkin, Brooks Lennon, even Duncan McGuire to some extent, who have, you know they they don't have a clean bill of health.
01:04:55
Speaker
don't think any player does. But I think you can go to them and say, listen, if you if you ball out, if you do what we think you are capable of doing, because we're paying money to acquire you, we will back you and we will start you and we will pay you and we will play you. And if you want to move up and move out, we won't hold that against you. I think that is something players chomped at the bit for. I think it's the list of people who would not want to be a part of the Sounders is probably extremely small.
01:05:25
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. ah All right. So we've been going an hour, Spence, ah so we can we can start to wrap it up here. But we did have one one more little thing that we wanted to get to before we call it a wrap for the night. Thank you to everyone, as always, for for tuning in.
01:05:42
Speaker
uh we wanted to talk some expectations for new and returning faces in 2026 we've got a little list here of of sounders players that we're going to go through and uh yeah we can just kind of give a brief nutshell on what we're expecting for the 2026 season for uh for all these guys the list is paul areola hasani dotson jordan morris pedro de la vega and nikola petkovich so uh We got so some some interesting names here, especially, you know, some unknown commodities with Petkovic and Dotson coming in. His new guys and Areola coming off the injury. De La Vega obviously is going to be coming off an injury. But ah let's start with Paul Areola. Why was he someone that you you wanted to talk about for this exercise?
01:06:24
Speaker
Yeah, so one of the things I think is is important at the beginning of the year is like properly framing expectations. And this just my opinion, feel free to disagree with me. But Paul is 31 coming off of an ACL tear.
01:06:38
Speaker
ACL constructions are pretty volatile at his age, even kind of more so. So even if he returns like full game performance capacity,
01:06:49
Speaker
I think based on the research, like peer-reviewed medical things I've been looking at and putting together some of these models, you maybe get 75 to 80% of total production output.
01:07:01
Speaker
And so in my mind, what that would translate to is i think he will be a great player. I think he's going to work hard. Anything north of 900 minutes, I think we're baking cake and we're happy about it, playing jazz.
01:07:14
Speaker
I just, I am worried at the work rate that Schmetzer expects of those wingers and the kind of cutting and passing and dipping and diving that they're all expected to do on that old over on that kind of a reconstruction surgery.
01:07:31
Speaker
So i I hope I'm wrong. I hope he plays 3,000 minutes and he's the Golden Boot nominee and he gets to go play at Barcelona next year and like all his dreams come true. But um you know I've heard it said kind of like, oh, we get Areola back, right?
01:07:46
Speaker
i I think Areola probably is a spot replacement for for Paul, for Pauly, more than anything else. And I think if you expect more of that him, i think I think you'll be a little disappointed. The only reason I'm maybe a little more cautiously optimistic on Paul Areola being able to return to roughly his full capacity at age 31 coming off an ACL is everything I've ever heard about him dating back a long time, like dating back to his early MLS days with... ah
01:08:17
Speaker
DC United and FC Dallas is that he is an absolute freak as far as fitness and how he trains and maintaining his body, like even uniquely compared to other pro athletes like Paul Areola has got that Nico Ladero in him in terms of how how hard he trains, but how well he trains. and ah and how fit is. So he he i would hope that he's, or I feel like he might be uniquely equipped to withstand ah coming back from an injury of this magnitude at this age compared to others. I don't know that. That's just like a vibes ah ah vibes hope or prediction. But that that's the reason why I'm hopeful that we could see him actually return closer to his early MLS former, but and when he was in Liga Meckies, when he was this Super explosive, super dynamic player that's getting USMNT caps.
01:09:10
Speaker
i i And i I hope for it. you know i love this team, and and I'm glad he's on it. but that might be a little wishful. I mean, there there are a lot of knee injuries in in pro soccer, men's pro soccer. and And what we see consistently time and time again is um the the rule is you're getting about 80% back per her injury, right? and And you can definitely mitigate that. You can definitely do a lot of things to improve that.
01:09:38
Speaker
But if he has a tremendous amount of usage on his knees coming in or already because he's explosive, getting back up to that point of explosivity like the biomechanics is probably tougher.
01:09:50
Speaker
And so that's why in in my my article that's going to hopefully come out here soon, I think you got to wait till midseason to properly evaluate them. You know, it's it's it's one thing to to know that you once did something. It's another thing to trust that reconstruction.
01:10:08
Speaker
And so in my mind, um I'm super happy to be wrong here. i think anything north, again, north of 900 minutes, you're super happy about. and And I think if if you get 80%, you're happy about.
01:10:21
Speaker
um But on on the the roster, I would probably peg him closer to spot replacement, rotational piece, than out and out, A1 starter.
01:10:31
Speaker
Yeah, it's a logical projection based on his age and the injuries coming off of. Next up, Hassani Dotson. What do you got for Hassani going into 2020? Yeah. So Hassani is super interesting because one of his best things is two-way balance. which is also one of Roldan, Christian Roldan's best attributes.
01:10:51
Speaker
So he combines really good defensive solidarity. He's about a tackle per 90, tackle one, excuse me, per 90, and about 1.1 interceptions per 90. So he's he's a bit of a turnover merchant, right?
01:11:05
Speaker
He's pretty good at at getting things going. And he had six goals, two assists on two years. you mean He's a genuine box-to-box presence. And he has some absolutely beautiful late arriving runs.
01:11:18
Speaker
his 2025 was limited, but think at 28, limited but i think at twenty eight coming off of some real good recovery in Minnesota, and he's had a full off season to also get acclimated. i And with Obed gone, I think you can kind of pen him in as a starter, and you can expect him to play as a starter off off the jump.
01:11:39
Speaker
So I, in my projection, I think if you can get anywhere north of 2,000 minutes, which would be almost a full season, you're super happy about that. three to five goals is is off is something I also think is not and unreasonable for him. You have Georgiou with the cutbacks.
01:11:56
Speaker
And with with you know Obed gone, Obed was kind of never asked to make the late arriving runs. But I think Hassani could do it. And he could do it really, really well. That's one thing that he does perhaps at an even higher level than Obed is getting in those spots to be goal dangerous. yeah and you know like To be fair to Obed, though, to be fair to Obed, I think he was purposely told not to.
01:12:19
Speaker
Because Obed does score goals. he will so he He really did start the end of end of last season. Yeah, and that was honestly what kind of took Obed from insanely good, highly rated prospect to a flat-out terrifying, demonic force of nature was when he started scoring goals at the end of last year and in the playoffs. And he really did add that to a game to his game. That's something that's been part of Hassani Dotson's game for his whole career So i'm I'm with you. I feel like three to five goals is a reasonable expectation. I do think he's the presumptive starter at that position beside Christian with Obed going to Atletico Madrid. And i i I feel good about that. I don't know about you, but I feel i feel pretty good about that. i think that is, when I think when i think about their, tell me what you think of this, but when I think about their ability to compete with, say, these Liga Mechies teams and CONCACAF Champions Cup, or last year when they played in Club World Cup,
01:13:13
Speaker
How good Obed got specifically, it was kind of an equalizer in those situations where when you're going up against these Liga Mechies teams that have players that are better than your typical MLS player.
01:13:26
Speaker
It's kind of about how many guys you have on the field that are at that level or can excel on that level. And Obed, when he was out there against these Liga MECs teams, or even at the Club World Cup against these powerhouse, global powerhouse teams, he was not only on that level, but he excels on that level.
01:13:43
Speaker
And that's that is what allows you to compete and take results in tournaments and in situations like that. I have no doubt that Hassani Dotson is going to be a really good high-level starter against MLS competition. I think what he has to show and what he has to prove is that he can be he can be that type of guy that Obed was in those situations where the competition level goes
Player Potential and Performance
01:14:06
Speaker
up. I think he can be that guy. We just kind of have to see him be that guy. And until we do see him be that guy, it is a little bit like I would have a question mark about that.
01:14:15
Speaker
going into CCC, say if they're playing like a really good league at Mecky's team, can they tap into the level that they reached with Obed in the lineup? It's just an open question. i personally would not expect that of him.
01:14:29
Speaker
I think if Hassani Dotson had that in his bag, he would not have been in Minnesota last year or the year before. That's kind of, yeah. I think it's tough. Obed's game on, he was just absurd.
01:14:41
Speaker
You know, he was so good and criminally underrated at just seeing danger and snuffing it out before danger appeared. And that's tough to do. Like it's easy when you're watching the from the couch and you got like the semi bird's eye view, and you see the whole field.
01:14:56
Speaker
It's a lot harder when you're on the field and you got to keep track, you know, in your brain in real time where everybody's at. So again, you know, hopefully he proves me wrong and i'm I'm eating crow on this at the end of the year, but I think you you're just hoping for very serviceable, you know, prime Brad Evans at the six kind of stuff.
01:15:15
Speaker
I think that's a good comp. That's good way to think about it. ah Jordan Morris next up. What do you got for for old J-Mo? yeah so This is one's a little bit sadder. So I have it in here my notes. He's 32.
01:15:27
Speaker
And last year, we're we're looking at 207 injury days. So I wrote a piece, Sounder at Heart, talking about surfaces, talking about injury days, and kind of like how they interplay with each other.
01:15:39
Speaker
go read it. It's a good, fun read. uh subscribe if you want to um but he he's he's got wear and tear on him and like it feels almost sacrilegious to say he's got a decade he's got a decade as of this season and he has been nothing but wonderfully wonderful serviceable in that center forward position he has elite finishing metrics he's got a 29 conversion rate which is just uh absolute absurdity he's very very very good I just, i I'm, you know, every time you see him on the ground in in preseason, every time I saw him on the ground of preseason, you know, it's a little bit of a Clutch of Pearls moment. and Dear God, what's happening? You know, because you just, at some point he's he's going to go down and he's going to have to stay down.
01:16:23
Speaker
And that's just going to have to be best for him and his family and everything else. And that'll be a a dark day. um But the thing is, The community rates him about a 6.08 from Relio's rating across 57 matches. So that's ah above average for the team, but his ratings are declining. So he went from about 6.12 in 24 to That's only inclusive of the games he played.
01:16:49
Speaker
he's got elite finishing But he's got three separate injuries, only played 750 minutes. um I think 12 to 15 starts, and that that was under the assumption they're doing a 4-2-3-1 with only one striker.
01:17:03
Speaker
I think part of the math of bringing Osaze in is you get to take some of the pressure off Jordan, and you don't have to ask him to to have these really tough battling diagonal runs that he's so good at.
01:17:14
Speaker
You take that off his plate. But, you know, 12 to 15 starts, I'm hoping for 20 plus. um Kind of by end of the season, i think i think we want to see 12 to 15 goals.
01:17:27
Speaker
and And that's just unfortunate. um That's just kind of what the DP tag would require of him, is some combination of 15 goal contributions. 12 to 15.
01:17:38
Speaker
Yeah, my hope with this is, I mean, I feel like last year was a total kind of busted year for Jordan. It felt like every time he got healthy, he got injured again. it did to me, it felt like there was a couple of those that seemed like freak situations to me. like I'm thinking of the the shoulder injury he had against the Quakes where he's going for the ball and he gets like tripped up in the air by the goalkeeper, comes down on his shoulder. Those are things that... like That to me is more of a freak occurrence than if he was repeatedly pulling his hamstring, which I think he he was at one point last year. But then he got back from that and then immediately busted his shoulder. But I do think ah if there's source of hope there, like I i thought when he played, like when he actually played last year, he was good. He got seven goals. had elite finishing when he played. Yeah. So the problem is if the problem a little better injury luck this year, I'm hoping his availability will bounce back in that regard. But it is. I mean, it's tough. He's coming off a year where yeah I think he had like, what, three or four separate injuries and missed pretty much the whole season. But, ah you know, he did come back for the playoffs and ah banged a couple of goals in in that series against Minnesota United, ah including that really clutch goal ah to tie it at the end. So, yeah, I'm hopeful that, I mean, i think it's at least, knock on wood, going to be here a higher availability year than it was last year when he missed so much time, but at least in one case in a pretty freak scenario. So, I don't know. Maybe that's fine.
01:19:15
Speaker
I mean, there's nothing there saying, oh, okay, maybe maybe we have, you know, not we, but like maybe someone has to step in and say, hey, time to hang it up. I don't think we're there. But I think if you want to level set expectations, I mean, 205 injury days is not insignificant, right? The Sounders play more games year over year than any other team.
01:19:34
Speaker
They have the shortest offseason recovery time of just about any other team. So the the wear and tear over a decade is is just compounded year after year after year.
01:19:45
Speaker
and And that's what has me nervous. It's elite finishing when he's on the field. And I really, really hope he gets to play in tandem with Osaze and it's a little Oba deuce where you know Oba was able to give Clint some space to breathe and Clint didn't have to just grind his face against you know four or five defenders every single game getting hacked at.
01:20:05
Speaker
I hope that's the case. um But I think if you want a level set, though, you've got to have 12 to 15 starts, ideally 20-plus in regular season, and you've got to have 12 to 15 goal contributions to call it a good return.
01:20:20
Speaker
Two more guys to hit here, and then we'll call it a night. Speaking of ah players coming off injuries, Pedro De La Vega, what do you yeah what do you got for your old PDLV?
01:20:32
Speaker
ah He's worse. So Jordan was at 205. PDALV is at 225 injury days. He's a lot younger though. So we're, you know, youth and exuberance and bounce back.
01:20:44
Speaker
um But i mean, he's 25. I mean, he's not super, super young. And I think it's, it's you know, the trends become patterns and patterns become permanent.
01:20:56
Speaker
And so I think you know it's one thing for Jordan who came on a homegrown deal and really got to ingratiate himself. I think the clock is is you know ticking like this for Pedro. And I think he knows it.
01:21:08
Speaker
His best quality, though, when we did get to see him play, I mean, he was averaging 3.1 progressive carries per 90 as a wing stretcher. He creates really great chaos, driving at defenders directly. He's really good in possession as well. His completion percentage was about 80% on his passes, which was phenomenal.
01:21:28
Speaker
And he had good ratings from the community. Again, these are from Relio, 6.13, and a really good creative profile.
01:21:37
Speaker
When healthy, he's electric, man. but But that if is a load-bearing if. he's He's not always healthy. And unfortunately, the reality in the cap league is you cannot have your highest paid guys on the bench.
01:21:50
Speaker
that is That is the number one red flag for any sort of evaluation of a GM. And so maybe they can keep him around. Maybe they can renegotiate. Maybe they can bring him down in number.
01:22:01
Speaker
But... You know, we really got to see something from him this year. And in in in my book, I mean, we got to see him north of 2,100 minutes played, which is, again, almost a full season.
01:22:16
Speaker
We need to be seeing 18 to 24 starts. And I don't think it's unreasonable to ask of him some combination of 10 goalscoring contributions, however that breaks down.
01:22:30
Speaker
You know, he's a DPI and then that's just the level he's got to perform at in order to justify the return. And I think there's enough question mark years where you just say we're going to pass and reallocate resources.
01:22:44
Speaker
Yeah, you know, we've been ah we've been talking about this this offseason. Noah's been making the case for why they should move off him for a lot of the reasons you just went over. I personally am just – I'm not quite – I can't get there quite yet, and my logic and reasoning for that is just like, God, he looks so good when he plays. Like, that's the thing – ah he To me, he showed last year that he's that caliber of player that's like a true game changer, a needle mover, the type of guy who's going to step up and make plays in the biggest moments of the game. Like who's goingnna who's going to step up and do what needs to do to score the goal to win the game. He showed that he was that guy. I felt like...
01:23:27
Speaker
repeatedly Like I had every time he was starting a game, I felt like a sense of security in that they have someone out there who when push comes to shove is going is going to be that guy. it just he has been injured so much that like I totally get like where people are coming from with just the yeah, he's good, but he's also not very available.
01:23:48
Speaker
ah argument. It's a good argument, but for me, it's just tough to get to a place of like, when you have, when you have a player whose talent level is this, this high, and you also have a roster that's shown that it's deep enough to function without him. I would argue last year was actually a successful year of Pedro de la Vega because he was the MVP of the only tournament that they ended up winning. Like,
01:24:11
Speaker
Part of the value that you're getting from Yeah, part of what you're getting from a DP is, like, the hope that they'll win you trophies. For all the injury time he missed last year, he did do that. If it's a situation where you only have him for, like, 1,000 to 1,500 minutes a year, but you're able to deploy him either in CONCACAF Champions Cup, Leagues Cup, or the playoffs, if you if you can rack one of those trophies with him kind of leading the way, i mean...
01:24:39
Speaker
To me, that's almost like you're justifying the value even if you don't play the full couple of minutes. Yeah. So, I mean, and perhaps that's unfair criteria on me. I'm happy to hear it. You know, let me know in the comments.
01:24:52
Speaker
Straight up, Dallas calls. They say one for one, no money. Moussa for Pedro De La Vega.
01:25:01
Speaker
Man. That is the caliber of of performance he has to justify. He is one of the biggest earners on this team. Right?
01:25:12
Speaker
Yeah. You know, would you trade him for Sam Sturridge? See, would you trade him for, we could, we could go down the list of the other DPs that are around him in terms of evaluation.
01:25:25
Speaker
I don't know if I would trade him for a peer number nine like that, even if they're really, I'm just using the guys that he's close to in common. That's why I'm using them. Um, you know But like that is a big-time seat.
01:25:41
Speaker
That's something you can't just hand out and hope. I mean, people want to give Jordan flack. Jordan is an elite finisher, and he has been for the better part of a decade. um He earned that outright.
01:25:55
Speaker
Pedro came in with all the expectations and and lofty goals in the world, but I think i think it's it's a little bit time to start saying, all right, man, you know it's one thing to do it for a tournament, but like those paychecks come every week, buddy. you air Fair, fair. Those paychecks don't stop when you stop playing. more year. Just one more year. That's what I'm saying. Just give me one more chance. this is I mean, this is it. This is it. And I think i think from what the little I saw ah you know following the team in preseason, I mean, he looked locked and dialed in.
01:26:24
Speaker
So I think he's locked and loaded. He's you know he roomed with Paul Rothrock. I would imagine that the two of them are consummate professionals and and are really dialed it in. you know But um you know at the end of the year, we do the end of wrap up.
01:26:40
Speaker
Again, hope I'm wrong. Hope he's amazing. Hope he gets sold for $100 million. dollars But he's got to play and he's got to play more and he's got to play more in the season. you know That's just the fact.
01:26:52
Speaker
All right. Last one of the night's fence. And then we're going to call it a wrap for this episode of Lobbing Scorchers. And I'm interested to hear your thoughts on this one. We got Nikola Petkovich, the fabled 22 arriving from Charlotte FC. And I feel like this is ah this is an interesting one because kind of no one really knows.
01:27:11
Speaker
What to expect or what they should expect. It's kind of it's it's a gamble. It's a roll of the dice to throw with the darts. And if it if it hits and it pays off, you've got a what was at one time a three million dollar transfer to to Charlotte. a ah A he's got a senior cap with the Serbian national team. so there There is pedigree there. it's I don't think it's as total like a nobody rando as it's being portrayed as, but it's also a guy that literally could not break through at Charlotte FC. And hasn't he really didn't show that he is a consistent MLS caliber player so far in his state side. so But like I think the hope is that in Seattle's infrastructure and their ecosystem, they can bring out the best in him, and we're just going to see if they can actually do that.
01:28:00
Speaker
Yeah, so I think i think with Petkovic, and it's funny because we're hearing a lot about ah Dale out of UW, and it's like, ooh, man, that would not be great to have a draft pick competing with your new 22. I mean, it is. It's it's phenomenal, but from a cap standpoint, from a finance standpoint, unideal.
01:28:17
Speaker
um I expect him to be a heavy rotation guy. So I think with Obed leaving, I think you 100% succession plan to have Dotson step in for Obed. And you know Christian's probably going to be at the World Cup.
01:28:31
Speaker
And so you then you bring Petkovic in to say, hey, man, sit, listen, learn, show up, be a consummate professional. I think there is enough signal from the Charlotte front office, which is not a bad front office by any stretch of No, it's pretty good. yeah And they're tight-fisted as well. So the fact that they were willing to spend, I think, is a good signal. And I think a senior team cap at any level is is a good signal. um I don't think he's a this-year guy.
01:29:00
Speaker
and And I'm happy to be wrong, but I think the best the best expectation for him across all competitions, heavily rotated in and out, 1600 minutes.
01:29:12
Speaker
you know He's Matt Doyle's breakout candidate of the year for this team. From what little I was able to hear from some some analysts and some else, I think it was just the you know a quarterback problem where you get drafted and the guy who drafted you or the guy who paid for you is gone.
01:29:28
Speaker
And then you got to – and the new guy wants his guy. And I think that's kind of what was going on with him at Charlotte because it was really baffling. He wasn't even playing. like Nobody at the front office was like, dude, you got to play him. like we paid We paid too much for him to sit.
01:29:41
Speaker
um But if it doesn't work, I think he's a prime candidate to be sold to somebody else. You know, Sporting Kansas City has no absolute, like, no need. there How I say this?
01:29:54
Speaker
Sorry, I'm fumbling my words here. We've been we've been going pretty long here. We need bodies. And so one the- Their roster is so tough. I was looking at that today. I was like, what is this squad doing? So I think however it shakes out between him and Dale for that that row heavy rotation spot instead of like a spot starter,
01:30:11
Speaker
I think you take the other one and you call Sporting and you say, hey, we'll loan him for half season, you know, $300,000 game if he if they start all the games. dale is in that Dale is in that position group?
01:30:23
Speaker
ah Is he not? um No, I think he probably is. if i but i wasn't I can't remember what his position is off the top of my head. Yeah, central midfielder. okay okay I have him listed as a central midfielder with a huge upside from UW. But the point being is, and I think this kind of goes back to the very top of our conversation, we can end on this note, is this is where i start we start to see the flywheel of the Sounders Academy go go bananas.
01:30:49
Speaker
Because you can, you I don't think it would be very difficult at all to loan out in an interleague loan Dale or Pekovic or Menungu if you just don't have the ability to to play them.
01:31:01
Speaker
And I think they're so good and so dominant, they would be starters for other teams.
01:31:06
Speaker
Yeah. you know and And the Sounders and almost every MLS team is really lucky in the sense that they do not have to sell talent to fund the whole team. So I think they can really pick and choose you know how they want to get the resources back. and you know But i think Petkovic is, is i think by mid my midseason, if we're like, yeah, you know we're seeing him start, we're seeing him go, probably got some ups and downs.
01:31:32
Speaker
I wouldn't feel confident putting any sort of performance on him other than minutes. Can he get 1,000 minutes, 1,500 minutes? probably a good return. He's a, he's the biggest wild card on the roster. My personal expectations for him based on what I've ah read and researched about the u twenty two hit rate is that he's probably going to end up being best case scenario, a Leo Chu type contributor, which I know is probably nightmarish sounding to some people, but like, I just mean like a guy who show probably shows flashes and instances of being a contributor, but never quite fully puts it together as a regular starter or needle mover. That's sort of the expectation that I go into any U22 with unless they were to do something where they went really, really big and splashed on like a day on the Ovalich style player. Then I might adjust my expectations a little bit, but a guy like this that you're just kind of taking a flyer on from Charlotte, I'm trying to manage my expectations. But on the other side of that, it's like if if it does hit in this pedigree that we see from ah the Serbian national team and that he's established in his career, if he's able to ah capitalize on that, then the payoff is huge. That's why I don't really i don't mind the flyer even if it doesn't work. Even even if it's just he can give Christian a rest in a midweek game consistently and the floor doesn't fall out.
01:32:55
Speaker
Great. Yeah. That's, mean, for this year, i imagine they have him for more than one year, but if that's all that is for this year, phenomenal. Christian needs a break. You know, he's got a lot of minutes coming his way. So if he can rotate in, we're sitting pretty.
Closing Remarks and Future Plans
01:33:10
Speaker
And I think that's enough to say, all right, cool. As fans, we can feel confident rolling into 27 with him on the roster.
01:33:16
Speaker
God knows it would be it would be a welcome sight to have a an ability to rest Christian Roldan, which he did not rest very much last year. but no No. All right, Spence, we've been ripping for 90 minutes, so let's call it right there. Great stuff tonight. Thanks for sharing all your all your research and your projects here with us. Before we get out of here, did you want to just plug real quick when when stuff might be dropping or where people can look to to find it when it does drop?
01:33:46
Speaker
Yeah, so I'm on bluesky at MLSZWazo, Z-W-A-Z-O. z w a z o Post some stuff there. All my written work is going be at Sounder at Heart. So subscribe. If you like this stuff, you're going to love their stuff. It's hand in hand.
01:33:59
Speaker
And I just wanted to end very quickly. I want to send a big shout out to Nathan Salmon. um I would not be a Sounders fan if it wasn't for him. And he has been phenomenal as both a friend and as a really good mentor and an aspirational role model. So going to give him a big shout out and say thank you.
01:34:17
Speaker
Because I wouldn't be here otherwise. she got remember Shout out Nathan delivering us Spence. Hell yeah. Love that. All right, Spence. Thank you again for hopping on tonight with me. If you're watching on YouTube, go ahead and like the video, comment, subscribe, rate five stars, write us a review, follow the Instagram, follow the TikTok, all socials.
01:34:42
Speaker
I think that's it for for shilling for now. We'll be back at it. I'll be back at it on Monday for Lobbing Scorchers kickoff, but also we're planning on doing a lot of preseason coverage on Sunday. um I think I'm going to try and make it out to Long Acres, and we're gonna we want to do some coverage on site. We'll see what pans out with that, but keep an eye out for for all that on all our channels as well, but we're going to call it right there for this one. Until next time, we out.
01:35:10
Speaker
Peace.