UGO13: How Much Longer Can AI Carry the Market ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann

Cem Karsan is joined by Goldman Sachs’ Christian Mueller-Glissmann to ask how much longer the AI boom can keep supporting markets as the bond market becomes increasingly difficult to ignore. They discuss whether today’s extraordinary earnings growth is sustainable, why Christian sees more evidence of an earnings bubble than a valuation bubble, and how higher yields are beginning to pressure parts of the equity market. The conversation also explores unusually high dispersion, cheap equity volatility and the growing challenge of portfolio diversification before turning to geopolitical risk, gold, FX volatility and how investors might prepare for a more inflationary and less predictable market regime.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and why the bond market matters again

02:13 - How the AI boom changed the market regime

06:41 - Are the earnings from AI actually sustainable?

10:38 - An earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble?

17:18 - What happens if earnings start to mean revert

22:15 - When the stock market starts driving the economy

28:55 - Why bonds are becoming the speed limit for equities

38:39 - Can the AI boom keep going if rates stay high?

42:21 - Why equity volatility looks unusually cheap

45:30 -<