GM108: Maybe Japan Is Finally Changing for Real ft. Jesper Koll

Alan Dunne is joined by longtime Japan strategist Jesper Koll to explore why Japan may be entering one of its most important economic shifts in decades. Jesper explains why demographics and government debt are less threatening than many investors assume, and how labor scarcity, rising wages and corporate reform are reshaping the economy from within. They discuss the return of domestic capital, Bank of Japan normalization and the government’s push into semiconductors, defense and energy. Jesper also makes the case that Japan’s broad economic expansion, industrial strength and accelerating corporate consolidation could make it unusually resilient in a world increasingly dominated by the AI cycle.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and the optimistic case for Japan

02:10 - How Jesper built a career around Japan

04:12 - Why Japan’s underlying strengths are often overlooked

07:12 - Demographics, labor scarcity and rising productivity

11:04 - Why Jesper doesn’t see Japan’s debt as a crisis

13:34 - Is Japanese capital finally coming back home?

17:15 - Takaichi, industrial policy and the next phase after Abenomics

22:17 - Why the Bank of Japan may start moving faster

25:46 - The yen, carry trades and the risk of a stronger currency

33:51 -