SI422: Why Trend Following Rewards Patience ft. Katy Kaminski

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Katy Kaminski explore why geopolitical risk and structural inflation may be changing some of the assumptions behind traditional portfolios. Katy revisits her recent Copenhagen presentation on crisis alpha, explaining why bonds can lose their diversification benefits when inflation becomes the dominant risk and why rules-based strategies can adapt more easily. They discuss research on preparing for different inflation regimes, the trade-offs between commodities and trend following, and new work from Quantica on why investors not always get the full benefit of investing in trend following. The episode closes with an important lesson: a small number of months drive much of trend’s long-term return, making patience and portfolio design critical.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and what’s on Katy's radar

06:16 - Why 2026 looks very different from 2022 for trend followers

11:12 - Geopolitical risk, inflation and Katie’s Copenhagen presentation

17:50 - Why today’s environment could challenge traditional portfolios

21:55 - What happens when bonds start behaving badly

28:46 - Why rules-based strategies can adapt when markets change

31:46 - Rethinking crisis alpha for an inflationary world

41:56 - Commodities versus trend following as inflation protection

47:40 - Why a handful of months drive so much of trend’s return

52:38 - H