Transcript
Speaker: And then there were four. Four teams left in the World Cup. All of them interesting storylines for one reason or another. Amit, we had a day off yesterday, another day off today. I feel like World Cup days off. One is good, and two, you get to withdraw, right? Yeah, two, you get the narcos meme that ESPN FC posts and one of our friends posted, unprompted, in the chat of his own accord.
Speaker: Shout out to Isaac Bushnell or maybe it was Parker Johnson both. But yeah, you're just staring longingly.
Speaker: into the abyss, being like, why is there football on my TV? So yes, no. And like I said, like one day, it's good to plan your life around something that's not the World Cup. But by the second day, you're like, where's the World Cup? Get the World Cup back. I need the World Cup. This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. I'm Austin Miller. He is a bit malic. On today's show, we're going to be breaking down the semifinals as we preview who will be heading for the World Cup final. Before we do, in order to fill that World Cup void, can I interest you in a World Cup consolation tournament?
Speaker: I don't know about that one. My job, we've talked about your job before. I work for World Lacrosse and what World Lacrosse does in their world championships is they have not only a championship consolation bracket where the teams that get knocked out, they have a platinum consolation bracket where teams 16 through 30 duke it out to determine every seating
Speaker: from every team of the tournament because this is how they use the world rankings. It's a lot of games, you know? You see them play in the group stage, you have an idea of how good they are. So I don't need to say more because if you're really interested and you're listening, you can find me and you can talk to me about it. But I'll just say that, like, no, I'm not.
Speaker: I am mainly for the possibility of imagine that Belgium team having to play two more times with it meaning absolutely nothing. There might be murder. Yeah, right. See, for us, that's entertaining, right? But also, Belgium would physically have to play 90 minutes. And that sounds torturous to watch, other than hoping for one of the teammates to hurt the other teammates.
Speaker: I don't think they'd be down for that. All right. World Cup constellation did not pass the stuff. If it doesn't get the World Cup after dark stamp of approval, I highly doubt it's going to get the actual World Cup regular person stamp of approval. So there we are. I'm just delaying the inevitable. I don't really want to talk about Argentina and Croatia because it's just going to make me get sweaty. I just think back to what happened on Friday, but they can go second if you want.
Speaker: No, they go first because it's the first thing and people are theoretically tuning into their podcast. So listen to my takes on Argentina. They're not. It's fine.
Speaker: This game is a World Cup semi -final, which means that anything can happen. The teams are well -earning of their position there. Argentine are without two fullbacks because of Yellow Card suspension. That will hurt their death. Croatia are the answers or the beggars of the question, can they possibly do this again?
Speaker: Argentina have a slight team of destiny, slight team of disaster feel. They rotate every 15 minutes between those two things. Where are you at on this game? Because I feel like there's a ton of different perspectives you could have here.
Speaker: Yeah, this is a very tricky, tricky game because Argentina are the better team overall. I'm not sure that they have played better as the better team, given what we've seen in five games of sample size. But talent wise, they are the better team. I think they're close on talent. I think they're close on the intangibles. And perhaps Croatia has an edge there.
Speaker: It's early in the podcast, let's get it out of the way. The 538 predictions have both teams at 64, 66%. Can't find behind a mitt. There's two cats running around. Yeah, I don't know what that means, but that was really fun. Yeah, so it's about a two to three, two thirds advantage, 66 % for both teams, which I think we can probably both agree on to us feels a tad high.
Speaker: I just think these types of matches are crazy. Anything can happen. And we agree that Argentina and France are the better team. But Croatia and Morocco are really, really good underdogs. And they're really well drilled. So I see this game being closer as a coin flip.
Speaker: Um, which is not what you want to hear as the Argentina supporter. It just leads to sweat. Like I don't know all of my predictions, but I do know I said Argentina over Netherlands in a shootout and I did as well. Yeah. So it's just the margins here are so thin and Croatia. We have done.
Speaker: What? Five knockout non -final matches in a row that go to extra time? Yeah. So how am I supposed to say that this one won't go to extra time? Yeah. And then from there, like, of course anything can happen. So we're going to talk about why we think Argentina is better and has a better chance. But I think this is much more in the 55 % range for Argentina, if anything, because of how good Croatia are.
Speaker: Yeah, I think you're definitely right there. I think France are significantly more of a favorite than Argentina should be. I think that's how I would break it down. I think France have more talent than Morocco have. I think France's game style fits better against Morocco. This Argentina -Croatia match is going to be decided by something small at some point.
Speaker: I don't know when that point will be, I don't know what that thing will be, but it just has the feel of a game that is going to be decided by a moment. To continue the meme conversation, as an Argentina supporter, I am the Marcelo Bielsa Premier League meme, right? Like one normal day of Premier League, that's all I ask. One normal knockout round win for Argentina, that's all I ask, will never happen. So because of that, I think
Speaker: that this is kind of like a a clash of two teams that have that feel that they can't possibly be beaten at this World Cup. That's a good place to start because Croatia are really good at ceding control of the game to their opponent and being comfortable, right? They don't need to dominate with the ball. They're happy to be selective in transition. They're happy to weather a barrage and think that
Speaker: their defenders and their goalkeepers can do it. And they know the longer the game goes, until we've proven otherwise, they are extremely fit. So you will get tired playing against them. And Argentina, in a weird way, generally like to be in control of games. And that's their preferred style. But they're not all that good at it for their talent. Argentina thrive in just moments of chaos.
Speaker: Not that they want chaos to happen, they like it more, but they're just like not perfect at getting chances in open play and preventing goals. And unfortunately we say their defense hasn't been tested, their defense hasn't been tested. At this point, this is what they are. They generally don't give up a lot of great chances, but weird things happen to them and they give up kind of weird goals.
Speaker: So at some point, could it all like balance out, like they play a clean game, Messi has a moment or two of magic and they allowed nothing the other end? That's how they should play games. And that's generally what Scolone did well in qualifying in the Copa America run. That's what they've attempted to do, but there has been something dumb that has happened in basically every single poor moment. They had the two Saudi Arabia goals, the deflected Australia goal, and then
Speaker: the Netherlands route land course double. And like you said, on the whole, the total amount of chances that has been created against Argentina is basically nothing. Yet they've somehow managed to concede five goals at this World Cup.
Speaker: Right. So that makes it really hard to predict, right? Like on paper, their defenders are all individually good. Their system is good because of Enzo Fernandez in the middle and Rodrigo de Paul. And the way they attack, they respect their opponents. They don't, you know, they, they switched to five in the back against the Netherlands, a very good move. We both lauded because of respect for Denzel Dumfries and the way Netherlands plays. So
Speaker: they get things right like they just are not they've been really prone to the bounces of a world cup but also they've been really prone to the bounces not going their way they've also had the bounces go their way right it's that weird juxtaposition of they've conceded five generally stupid goals
Speaker: And they've also managed to score really low quality chances because they have the best player to ever play the game. And that is the benefit. And so this is just, this Argentinian team exists in this weird space where there's not really a logical way to define them because their preferred style of play has resulted in them somehow conceding way more than they should, but also probably scoring more than they should.
Speaker: Right. And their obviously goal is to, in general, their goal is to play low event football and have their guy, Messi, and their talent around him, you know, score those low quality chances. And if they can convert high quality chances, it'd be nice if LaTaro Martinez could score one. Julian Alvarez has been good for them, right? And he's a great striker to kind of clean up those types of chances in the box.
Speaker: But it's just weird in this game because both teams kind of want this to be cagey and like on a knife's edge and tense. They both thrive in that environment. But both teams can't want that because if they do at the end of the day, that tips Croatia's favor towards it being cagey.
Speaker: towards it being not a lot in it, the longer it goes towards 90 minutes, towards a penalty shootout, Croatia will feel stronger. They will feel, if we can get to a shootout, anything can happen, right? If we can get a moment, they went down against Brazil and scored, which we haven't talked about yet, but this Croatia team
Speaker: They're just really hard to put away. They're kind of ghost -like. They're a spectre in that sense, right? They're always lurking. And that fear is going to inform Argentina. So the pressure is fully on them to attack in this game.
Speaker: with how much and the answer is probably not a lot and despite it getting maybe to the 70th minute probably not that much more right so this is setting up to be a very cautious affair because I just think Croatia
Speaker: You can't, they're not like the scariest team in transition, right? They're not that fast, but they just have quality at all the positions on the field, pretty much, right? That they can hurt you. So this leads to me seeing a very cagey game. And I would, at some point, like you said, let's see Argentina have a game script, just go to their plan, right? They could do that. This could be the game, but we've seen nothing yet from them that says that'll happen. We've seen nothing from Croatia that says that they're going to just
Speaker: play into that script because they're very good.
Speaker: But maybe it does, and that's the weird thing, is that maybe all of this just balances out, and at the end of the day, Argentina is as good as they've been without the weird stuff, and Croatia doesn't get the weird stuff, and the legs maybe go, and this is an easy win. I'm just saying that to try and convince myself that that's what's gonna happen. That's probably not what's gonna happen, because everything else suggests that it's not. Let's talk about Argentina here, and what they're gonna look to do. Go ahead, quick.
Speaker: No, let's talk about the players and the support. So Argentina, it looks like they are probably going to resort
Speaker: back. Excuse me, hang on. I'm reading the formation as I do this. They're probably going to resort back to the back four with Guti Gremero and Nicolas Otamendi, Molina, Talia Fico, Dima Martinez. And then the big question is who plays among Di Maria, Pares, or La Taro Martinez, which as far as a or, or, or, those are three completely different looks from Argentina.
Speaker: Whoever takes that last spot, again, we assume Messi goes, Fernandez goes, Alexis McAllister goes, Julien Alvarez goes, DePaul goes. Whoever takes that last spot among those three players decides a ton of what Argentina do. If it's Paredes, it's a much more defensive midfield. If it's Di Maria, they're playing only one up top and Di Maria is trying to run the channels. If they go with Lautaro Martinez alongside Julien Alvarez, that's two strikers, which is something they haven't really done at this tournament.
Speaker: So that one decision, which it seems like is the one decision to make, is going to define a lot of what this match turns into. Is there any chance Papu Gomez gets in, or is he not really a front line? He's more of a midfielder. I don't think Papu Gomez is really in the conversation here. I don't think a player like Paulo de Bala is in the conversation. I did see Paulo de Bala on the TV in training today, so he's in guitar, supposedly. He's there.
Speaker: Just a very side note here, FIFA player as I am, I uploaded a clip of one of my goals to Reddit for the first time ever, because it was a fun goal that I scored. And immediately someone commented, the most unrealistic part of this goal is that DiBala is in the game. And I was like, oh, that's tough. So it was the 120th minute. You have five subs. Anyway, to answer your question,
Speaker: I think given what we saw about Demaria, I'm not sure they're going to start him for 90 minutes against a team as fit as Croatia. And you just have to worry about, can you remind me, Jaranovic, is there
Speaker: They're right back, who was really, and that's the spot, right? That's left wing for DeMaria. And that's a lot of running because you have to track him back and he's just really tough. And then, so I don't think it's that. And then I don't think they want to play two strikers with Lautaro and Alvarez. That's just not the way Argentina generally play. And I think that's, they don't need to play two strikers in a game this cagey.
Speaker: Yeah, I don't think they need to change. That would be a pretty significant change from what they've done at this tournament. I don't think they'll look to do that. And I think you're right. The planning for this match from the start has to be that this match is going 120 minutes. Everything that you do within the context of this match until the last
Speaker: 10 minutes of normal time, if a team is up, has to be done under the assumption that this match is going to go 120 minutes. Because that is what Croatia are expecting. That's what Argentina should expect as well. And I think that kind of factors into the Di Maria decision as well.
Speaker: Right, but my issue here is that leaves third guy you mentioned, Leandro Paredes, who isn't really a winger, right? No, so it would kind of - You'd play McAllister out there and he's kind of a wide attacking shuttler come into combine, right? He's not a winger. Exactly. Because your other two, Fernandez and DePaul, are also pretty strict center midfielders. I'm fine with Paredes in that sense that you're going to have three
Speaker: very good two -way players. You're going to have a solid shape. McAllister can come in as a supporting inverted winger and just combine, you know, they don't need that side to, they already, their left back, Tagliovico can give them width on that side if they want. So in that sense, it might be a little midfield heavy, a little defensive, but they just played three center backs. So if you're going to
Speaker: three players kind of overload in one spot. You could do that with Prentice. And as long as Prentice keeps his head, I think it's fine. That's a big question for him.
Speaker: Yeah. So this, that is an important factor in this game. And that is something that both teams have succeeded at, at this tournament is they have done well in emotional moments. Croatia turned a pretty throwaway quote from the Canada coach after a game that they lost, but should have won into the motivation to end all motivation and just destroyed Canada for one. And after it said, yeah, that mattered to us.
Speaker: They were able to be motivated for Brazil. They are looking for any perceived slight. And it's been really interesting because Argentina have been particularly careful publicly. Nobody's saying anything about Croatia. And Galoni, great team, good team, good opposition, tough game. This is smart for Argentina because we know that they are very, very hot -headed. You just watch the Netherlands match.
Speaker: Louis Van Hall got under Lionel Messi's skin, living rent free in his head. Do you know how annoying you have to be for Lionel Messi, the little greatest player of all time, to say, this man just lumped long balls into the box? It worked because it was smart. And Leo's like, this dude stinks. They all were taunting the Netherlands. Credit to Argentina for talking their blank. They deserved to.
Speaker: that's what makes Argentina good is that for them they're playing like a bunch of middle schoolers or high schoolers playing like FIFA and just like running at like an 11 at all times but then they know that they're gonna get that way in the game but they don't want to give Croatia anything beforehand it's smart on their part and we I'm just noting that like it's a point for them because they very easily could be talking yeah
Speaker: So Croatia, what do we expect from them? It's probably going to be the same team that they played for the majority of the tournament. The big guys to watch, obviously Modrić, Perisic, Brozovic in the midfield, Lomakovic in goal could be a massive figure here. We'll get to that potential point to close this game out.
Speaker: We kind of know what we're going to get with Croatia. I don't think there's very many questions as to what type of approach, how they're going to play. They might try to attack this game early and see if they can get one. I wouldn't put that past them. I think they are more than capable of trying something like that. Yeah, I think what we saw from Croatia, at least that stood out to me against Brazil, is you heard the broadcasters and people say the lack of fear.
Speaker: OK, that's a cliche. But what it meant is that they were high up the field. They pressed Brazil in their own half building out of the back. And I think they have the legs for.
Speaker: I mean, obviously we at this point have no idea how to estimate Croatia's legs. They could run maybe for all day. But I think in my mind, they've got 30 to 45 minutes of good high up the field pressing in them. And the rest of that will be more measured counter -attacking up the wings with Yironovice right back, Perisic left winger. But they can press when they want to. So do they choose to start that way, like you said, to chase a goal or to just make the statement to Argentina that
Speaker: we're going to be in your face and make this physical. Let's get a lot of physical challenges early on. And obviously, what makes Croatia so good is their midfield trio of Modric, Brozovic, and Kovacic. And they're all at great clubs, and all very technical, and all can run for days. So it's a really, really fun battle between those three, and then whether it's... Yeah, because... And everybody else, obviously, but also Messi.
Speaker: Yeah, it's messy because Messi's on that right side for Argentina. And that left side for Croatia is at Mundo Sosa, who is a fine left back. I think he's pretty good. He's definitely physically up for the challenge. But it's just one moment to switch off. And that's where he beats you. And he cuts inside. He cuts into that midfield. So this is big game for Croatia to track back and watch him and not get caught in a crazy moment.
Speaker: That leads to me seeing most of this game being cagey, as I already mentioned. But Argentina have to respect them. So that's a big job for Rodrigo de Paul and for Enzo Fernandez, who have been really, really good for Argentina all tournament. Despite their five goals, it's not their fault, in my opinion. I think they have been excellent, and they were very good against the Netherlands in stopping the Netherlands doing what they wanted to do until they reverted to a different game style.
Speaker: Did both teams should have a very good idea and plan of how to stop the other defensively? That leads to this just being careful. Yeah, and it's also a World Cup semi -final, which plays into it being careful. So if it is careful, Amit, and if it goes like it could go, that leads us to the final big question here. Croatia have won two straight penalty shootouts at this World Cup. Argentina are coming off a penalty shootout win.
Speaker: are either of these teams in a position where they would actively want to play for penalties? I think if it got to extra time, Croatia would 100 % play for penalties and Argentina would do what they did against the Netherlands. They wanted to score that goal very badly the last 10 minutes of the game.
Speaker: They didn't get it. But I thought, as you have said multiple times, a good reminder to them internally, but also just they deserve, I think they deserved a goal for those chances, right? Like, so I think that's the way Argentina see it. Argentina clearly, mentally aren't afraid of penalties. And they talked a big game after beating the Netherlands. They said, Van Hall wanted to go. How about that? Deebu loves it. Deebu lives for the moment, right?
Speaker: Messi goes first, there's no waiting, they don't mess around. All of that being said, you could be the juggernauts of mentality in the world. Argentina do not want to leave this to penalty kicks. That favors Croatia, it favors the 6 -6 keeper who's been very good. Croatia clearly are unflappable, so yes. Croatia will happily take it. If Argentina are down, right, 2 -0 in this game, and they create some crazy comeback,
Speaker: then maybe it's like mentally, hey, we made it to penalty kicks. Unless that happens, of course, Croatia want to do that. So the pressure is on Argentina here. They're the better team. They have this team of destiny, team of disaster that you've outlined so perfectly. The vibes for Argentina are always the question. What are the vibes when we get the penalty kicks? What are the vibes in this exact moment is the question with Argentina. Yeah.
Speaker: Right, so, I don't know, I'd be scared of them, right? If I were Argentina, I wouldn't want to get to penalty kicks against Croatia. Yeah, I also don't know that the world could survive Adebu Martinez, Livakovic, penalty shootout for everything that goes on. I just don't know that there's a winner there.
Speaker: All right, let's move on from that game. Oh my God, I'm going to die. Don't even want to think about it. Morocco, France, Amit is our other semifinal. A really interesting matchup on paper. Morocco are much like Croatia, beggars of the question, they can't possibly do this again. Can they? And they have without fail in this tournament resoundingly answered. Yeah, we can at every single moment.
Speaker: This is far and away their biggest test. They have not played an attack as star -studded as this French attack. The big question for me, I think, is can Morocco weather the initial France pressure? Which I think we both expect will probably come quick, early, fast, and heavy. And then if they can withstand that, then we have a game on our hands. Do you kind of see this match in that way as well?
Speaker: I agree. I think France, out of the three teams, Morocco, the last two they've played in this one, are the most patient in attack, the most patient just in their game approach. Didier de Champs, we've fluctuated on what we think of him. Not necessarily. We know he's good. They won a World Cup.
Speaker: But one of his strengths is his conservative approach to games. They don't commit a ton of numbers. They build up slow. They leave a lot of numbers back. And then at times this tournament, starting with Theo Hernandez at left back, they've committed more numbers. And obviously, when you have their just talent players, right, Mbappe, Griezmann, Ciao Maini, you know, Giroud, they can impose their will. And I think
Speaker: They love playing 1 -0 up, that's better for them. So because of that, we will see a flurry from them, but it won't necessarily be all out like full on, right? I think they will, they, Deshamp, is going to look at Morocco's counter -attack and really respect that.
Speaker: I think Theo Hernandez and Kylian Mbappe, that side of the field versus Ziech and Hakimi is the matchup to watch. Because if either side goes forward and gets caught out, the other team is bombing down that flank. And that's how France score their first goal. Incredible low quality chance from Ciao Mani or not.
Speaker: That started an encounter from Mbappe having one moment in the game out of what 90 minutes where he beat Kyle Walker Like and that's it like so that's the stakes here which leads to a very cagey game so I agree with you France will come out hard and they'll want to get one zero up, but I think that France are going to be very slow in their approach to this one and make Morocco
Speaker: They're going to test Morocco's legs, right? Because they asked the question that you asked to start, can Morocco do this again? Let's see Amrabbat, Unahi, all these players run as much as they did for another game. And if Morocco can, then we'll have a game on our hands in the second half.
Speaker: Yeah, and I think you brought up that side of the field. The Akimi, Z -Edge, and Bape side of the field is the most interesting part of this game because whoever controls that side and has more success there is going to be in a good position. And we said this at the end of one of the shows last week.
Speaker: Morocco's big kind of ace in the hole here is that their best player plays at the exact best position to attempt to neuter the effects of France's best player, who is Mbappe.
Speaker: Akimi is Morocco's best player, and he is a world -class right back who plays on the same team as Kylian Mbappe. That's pretty good. You'll take that. Big questions, and we don't have the answers to this yet. We're recording on Monday. It'll be out on Monday. Games not until Wednesday. Who's fit for Morocco to play here? That's been a big question for them in this tournament. Roman Saiz gave them 60 great minutes against Portugal, had to come off.
Speaker: They were without two defensive starters against Portugal. By the end of that game, they were without three of their four defensive first -choice players. Agini was the only first -choice player starting at the back line. That work against Portugal, I don't think that will work against France. I think they will need players to come back and be healthy and have legs. I agree with you, and that's because of Olivier Giroud.
Speaker: Yeah, his movement and aerial prowess in the box. He's not as good of a mover as Gonzalo Ramos, but he is class. And that's why you need your best players to deal with him. And if France is playing transition, yeah, you want your fastest center backs out there.
Speaker: Uh, this is tricky for Morocco. We've said the order of magnitude got harder with Portugal and they responded by really giving Portugal one chance all game, which was really, really impressive. You've brought it up multiple times. Their defensive record is at this point, a sign of maybe the best defense in the tournament. And it might, it doesn't have to be that they have the best defenders players, but just overall they are. And again,
Speaker: Well, mention it another time. It's because of their line of confrontation, because of how compact they are. And they adjusted it, right? Against Spain, they gave Spain a little more breathing room. Against Portugal, they pressed them out and made them hit lots of crosses. How far do they want to go and press France's midfield, right? We know they're not going to press them full field, but is it 50 yards out, 40 yards out, 30 yards out?
Speaker: And how willing are France to just boot balls into the box at Giroux? That's kind of lazy, but maybe that's all they want to do. Or do they want to get Dembele and Mbappe running at these outside backs as much as possible? Dembele was not good for France against England.
Speaker: he has a tough matchup in Mozrawi, the left back for Morocco. If he can win that and France can go down that side, that makes it even better for them because then Mbappe is just waiting. He's just the goal scoring threat in space. So France are really, really talented and you're just like, well, how do you stop these guys? In England,
Speaker: had the right idea, right? Stop and bop a one -on -one, make the other guys beat you. And they couldn't really until Giroux was Giroux. And that's where it's like, well, that's where the Moroccan center backs really need to be on their game. France can win this by not playing well. That's what makes it scary. So that's where Morocco also for all of their good dribbling, counter -attacking,
Speaker: build up they can do it all they did score on one brilliant header like on a good cross what if that didn't go in is that game completely different
Speaker: Of course, like every World Cup game, if one more changes. I think an interesting thing here is oddly enough, Morocco is one of the teams that we haven't seen have to go for it in a game yet. And that's kind of weird because you wouldn't have necessarily expected that. But they haven't, you know, we've said multiple times on this show. Every team at some point in the World Cup gets to a moment where chips are all on the table. You got to go for it.
Speaker: for the Netherlands, that meant throwing two big dudes on, lumping balls into them, and it worked. What does that moment look like for Morocco? We don't really know what that looks like because, again, they haven't had to do that yet. And I think that's actually a really interesting point here. If they do go a goal down against France, what do Morocco do at that point, right?
Speaker: Do they go for it immediately? Do they wait for it? Do they spend some time? At what point do they make their adjustments? What adjustments do they make? And how committed do they get? I think one player who's actually really interesting here for Morocco and somebody that we could actually see a bit of in this game, that we haven't seen a ton in this tournament, is the backup number nine, Adarazak Hamdallah, who is a very polarizing figure, had been outside of the Morocco setup,
Speaker: and is a true out -and -out nine whose job is to score goals. But he's been behind in the starting 11. They've started in Nezuri with reason, given his goal. And then when they've been winning, they brought on Chidira, who is suspended for this game because of the antics in the last game. So if they do get down a goal, at what point do we see Hamdala? What type of effect can he have on the game? I think he's a potential wild card to throw into the equation in this match.
Speaker: and Kenziech and Buffal be as efficient as they have been so far. They have troubled pretty much every single defense they've played in this tournament so far. Can they do that again against France? I don't know. Let's see. I'm intrigued. Yeah, their ability to pin France's outside backs back and respect to them is a big deal for Morocco staying in this game. Did it to Spain. They did it to Portugal. And it led to those teams not being able
Speaker: to commit fully to their offense because of the respect. And France, we know they're a little slow to do it, but with Theo Hernandez, they're much more likely than before with Lucas Hernandez. So very interesting question. I think as you outlined very well, this is dangerous for Morocco.
Speaker: They haven't yet had to play down a goal, chase a goal. It's been five games and we don't know what it's like. And France are the scariest team in the world to be down a goal against. They just, we've said it multiple times. They're not a team you want to counter against you because they have the best counterattacking player in the world. They have guys that could play balls to that dude. Like it's just a nightmare.
Speaker: So this is really big for Morocco to keep this at 0 -0 and defend desperately to get to halftime. And maybe that's why you started by saying France should really go for it early to just get this into their game state. So maybe they will. It seems like there's a possibility here where France can just bury this early. They have the talent necessary. They have an opposition that if everything breaks right, they can absolutely just bury this game and be done with it.
Speaker: I don't know that they will do that. I don't think they are going to be able to do that, but it is absolutely a possibility for them. Another thing, and we mentioned this in the France England recap we did, France's backline maybe isn't that great. Of all the things that they have, it is not their strong point. Morocco have to have that on their radar, right? They cannot allow themselves to not test that French backline at some point.
Speaker: Right. And this is where we just talked about Bufaul and Ziech going at the outside backs, if they could dribble at the center backs as well. Right. They, Uppu Mikano gave up a cheap penalty. We saw it, right. They gave up another one on a run to Mount.
Speaker: It wasn't dribbling, but the Morocco wingers need to absolutely dribble, get penalties, be dangerous on set pieces, make France defend in the box. Morocco can't sit back all game in the bunker. And I don't think they will. That's not their plan. But the more dangerous they can be, the more France have to keep their talent, their arsenal of weapons kind of stockpiled because they can't go forward fully.
Speaker: And similar to what we said about Croatia, yeah, the more it goes on, I think France will want to avoid penalty kicks. The pressure is on France to get to score. So that's, you know, it's a math. It's a waiting game for Morocco. At what point do you just start bunkering in? Because I think you don't want to bunker in against France, but you might have to. Yeah.
Speaker: You want to do the Hugo Louris bit or you want me to do it? No, you should do it. Hugo Louris hasn't had his moment at this World Cup yet. Hasn't made his big mistake. His big mistake four years ago came against Croatia when France were already 4 -1 -0. That's a check mark. That's a plus for Hugo Louris. Maybe his big mistake comes here. It's coming at some point in this World Cup. Maybe it's here. We'll see. Yeah.
Speaker: On the flip side, Morocco's goalkeeper, Bunu, has been really, really good. That's another thing that can keep Morocco in this game for either of the underdogs. If the other team starts peppering chances, can you get six, seven, eight saves? Not saying they all have to be world -class saves, but you just start stringing them together and getting the other team's head. That's a proven recipe to succeed at this level, and Bunu has been really good, so that could help. And home soil boost.
Speaker: for Morocco, right? This is going to be a partisan crowd. There is no doubt about that. There is history between France and Morocco, obviously politically, obviously on the pitch as well. This is going to feel like an away game for France. That could play a role here.
Speaker: Yeah, I think it's boosted Morocco's players, their intensity, their dedication to playing. Argentina's players have talked about how partisan the crowds have been in favor of them, which they obviously have, and how that has helped them. That's going to be the case again. The European nations have not traveled well for this World Cup. Argentina somehow has. Morocco obviously has. Those two teams have the backing of the crowd in the stands for these matches. I don't know how much of a difference that will make.
Speaker: But it's a point worth noting for both of them. Definitely. It definitely is. So we'll see. The pressure's on France and Argentina. And I do think their scenarios where both of them could comfortably get through. But I think we're both seeing it as less comfortable. I still think France and Argentina will do it. But I think Croatia and Morocco have earned a lot of respect and will present good games. I will not be shocked if either of them pull up the upset either.
Speaker: I would be pretty surprised if Morocco get by France. I would be pretty surprised. I love this Morocco team. I desperately want them to get by France. I think it would be a fantastic story. But I think the amount of talent that this French team has is unrivaled at this World Cup. I think Brazil were the only team that could make a case that on paper, player to player, 1 -26, they had as good of a squad as France did. And I think
Speaker: even considering how good of a squad Morocco has, how high level their players are, how much they've shown, there's still a pretty significant gap here. And I think France are going to look to exploit that. And like I said, I think they're going to look to try and exploit that early. I agree with you in the end. Yeah. And I do think it's trouble for Morocco if they go down one and they just haven't, we haven't seen them do it at this tournament, which is a bad sign. You don't want to be in a semi -final having to do that for the first time. Yep.
Speaker: So you're going Argentina, France for the final? I am, yeah.
Speaker: I'm also going Argentina, France for the final. I also expect these games, one of them is going to last seven hours and one of them is going to last seven minutes. The Argentina one will be the seven hour game tomorrow. Is there any one, as we kind of close this out, is there one player on any of these four teams that you just want to make a point about one more time and say, keep an eye on this person. Lionel Messi can't be your choice. Hmm.
Speaker: Very good question. I'm going to go with Tagliafico for Argentina. Acuna has been divisive. He's been good. He's been bad at times. Argentina.
Speaker: their attack benefits greatly from their left back getting up the field. And being an outlet, because obviously with Messi on the right side, they try to get numbers overloaded there, and then their space. And Tagliafico is generally a good left back. I think he's good. I don't know if he's necessarily a mile better than Acuna, but I think he can be better.
Speaker: If a chance funnels to him, can he get a good cross in? Can he shoot? Acuna did earn the penalty, and that was really strong. So I think if Taglafico has a good game, Argentina could exert a lot more control over Croatia.
Speaker: I think that's a really good shout. I'm going with Sophie on Amrbat for Morocco has been incredible. This World Cup in with a shout for player of the tournament. For me, obviously he's not going to win it because players like that don't ever win player of the tournament, but has just been absolutely immense for them and the path to Morocco winning this semi final.
Speaker: He plays a really big role in it, in being able to pressure the opposing midfield, win the ball back, create possession, and just be the immense master that he has been at every point so far of this World Cup. So, let's see what Sophie and I were about. If he can go to the well again, has repeatedly gone to the well for Morocco in this tournament and has been absolutely immense. All right, we're looking forward to World Cup semi -finals. We're going to plan on recording after Argentina -Croatia tomorrow.
Speaker: with a TBD on potential status of one of the co -hosts, depending on how that game goes. And we'll definitely obviously record after France, Morocco. Thanks as always for listening. We will be back soon and chat soon.
