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55 - Stormy Waters
2.8k Plays1 year ago
Stormy Waters is a partner at a venture capital firm. He came to the EXIT weekly group call to talk to the boys about what VCs look for in a founder or project, how to pitch, etc. He also gave an interesting take on the volatile financial situation in the coming months and years. Had him on the show to elaborate.
Follow him on X at @normandodd_knew.
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Transcript
Introduction and VC Insights
00:00:17
Speaker
Hey everybody, welcome to the Exit Podcast.
00:00:19
Speaker
This is Dr. Bennett, joined here by Stormy, who some of you may know from Twitter, and who is involved in the venture capital space.
00:00:26
Speaker
We had him come to the Exit Weekly Group Call and picked his brain about what VCs look for in founders, what they look for in the types of projects they invest in, how to approach, and how to make your pitch.
00:00:43
Speaker
And the guys were really into it, and I wanted to kind of
00:00:47
Speaker
uh, publicize some of the stuff that we, that we heard in that conversation and also, uh, dig a little bit deeper.
00:00:52
Speaker
So welcome to the show, Stormy.
00:00:54
Speaker
Hey, pleasure to be here, Ben.
00:00:56
Speaker
Pleasure to be here.
Jamie Dimon's Political Commentary
00:00:58
Speaker
We want to talk about, I want to start it off with Jamie Dimon.
00:01:01
Speaker
This, uh, this, uh, is he CEO of JP Morgan?
00:01:05
Speaker
CEO and chairman.
00:01:09
Speaker
which is what really matters.
00:01:11
Speaker
Who basically said some things that would have been like way, way, way out on a limb like 10 minutes ago, practically.
00:01:22
Speaker
And yesterday too.
00:01:23
Speaker
Of his social class.
00:01:26
Speaker
And basically saying like, hey, you know, maybe these people don't like Trump because they like his mean tweets.
00:01:32
Speaker
Maybe they like him because he was right about immigration and the economy was doing better and he was right about NATO.
00:01:37
Speaker
And like he just sort of listed all these litany of things that are being screwed up by the occupational class.
00:01:46
Speaker
It's not just what he said, man.
00:01:48
Speaker
It's where he said it.
00:01:50
Speaker
At Davos.
00:01:51
Speaker
Right.
00:01:54
Speaker
Well, so yesterday, they were dumb enough to put them in front of a camera twice.
00:01:59
Speaker
So what really, you can't really have a world economic forum without having the CEO and chairman of the world's largest bank and most powerful bank.
00:02:14
Speaker
Right.
00:02:15
Speaker
So I don't think a lot of people understand what J.P.
00:02:17
Speaker
Morgan is, but I'll get into that in a second.
00:02:21
Speaker
What he said yesterday was on, yeah, this was on CNBC.
00:02:27
Speaker
I don't like how Trump said things, but he wasn't wrong about these critical issues.
00:02:34
Speaker
And that is why they are voting for him.
00:02:37
Speaker
People should be more respectful of their fellow citizens.
00:02:42
Speaker
I think it's negative that, I'm sorry, I think it's, I think this negative talk about MAGA will hurt the Biden campaign, which sounds kind of crazy unless you know where the money's going.
00:02:55
Speaker
So open secrets is really useful.
00:02:58
Speaker
It tells you, basically tracks political contributions, whatever.
00:03:02
Speaker
And if I go and search by industry, and this has been going on for a while, about two years,
00:03:10
Speaker
I know longer than two years, but I've only been tracking the political donations for the last two years just because it's interesting.
00:03:17
Speaker
Anybody that tries to tell you like the elites are a monolith or this and this and this people like control the world is because they just don't know how power dynamics works and or really how cartels work.
00:03:31
Speaker
All cartels are meta stable.
00:03:33
Speaker
All of them.
00:03:35
Speaker
So they're basically stable until they're not stable.
00:03:37
Speaker
Until one of the cartel members realizes that he can go a lot further by throwing all the other members under the bus.
00:03:47
Speaker
Sure.
00:03:48
Speaker
Which is what's happening.
00:03:49
Speaker
So JP Morgan is jumping out on a limb and cracking an ideological cartel is what you're saying?
00:03:56
Speaker
Oh, no, this is not an actual financial cartel.
00:03:59
Speaker
This is like an actual cartel.
00:04:02
Speaker
I'd have to get into LIBOR and SOFR to go into that, which is extremely interesting.
00:04:06
Speaker
So Jamie is the president and CEO, chairman and CEO.
00:04:12
Speaker
And what that means is that, well, Jamie has spent every single dollar he has ever made working on Wall Street, buying JP Morgan stock.
00:04:23
Speaker
So when you see a lot of these people on corporate boards, they're usually appointees.
00:04:29
Speaker
like whatever, like family office or large institution or whatever owns all of the shares of stock.
00:04:37
Speaker
And this person is, you know, they're representative, right?
00:04:41
Speaker
They're not actually calling the shots.
00:04:42
Speaker
Like they're just there.
00:04:43
Speaker
This is why you see so many new faces on boards, right?
00:04:49
Speaker
That's because they're a representative sent there on behalf of the people that actually own the shares.
00:04:55
Speaker
Right.
00:04:55
Speaker
Jamie Dimon is the chairman.
00:04:58
Speaker
Because he owns the shares.
00:05:00
Speaker
He owns more than anybody else in the world.
00:05:02
Speaker
So Jamie Dimon is a lot like Elon Musk.
00:05:06
Speaker
Okay.
00:05:06
Speaker
Right.
00:05:07
Speaker
An actual like tycoon out of Carnegie ever.
00:05:11
Speaker
Like, yes, it's not his company, but you can't build a company like JP Morgan right now.
00:05:16
Speaker
You couldn't.
00:05:17
Speaker
Right.
00:05:18
Speaker
Right.
00:05:18
Speaker
Like, this is an American institution.
00:05:21
Speaker
And so he faces radically different incentives than, you know, all of these figurehead CEOs who were telling the line, right?
00:05:35
Speaker
is not the fucking boss.
00:05:36
Speaker
The CEO is an employee.
00:05:38
Speaker
Losing employee of the Lord.
00:05:41
Speaker
He can be fired at any moment in time and replaced.
00:05:45
Speaker
The CEO is just the chief employee on the employee totem pole.
00:05:50
Speaker
He doesn't own the company.
00:05:53
Speaker
In fact, this is the problem with capitalism or financialized capitalism.
Financial Capitalism and Shareholder Dynamics
00:06:00
Speaker
Financialized capitalism, the problem is
00:06:04
Speaker
Is that the shareholders are not attached whatsoever to the company itself.
00:06:12
Speaker
Right.
00:06:12
Speaker
If I can buy and sell a stock in half a second or like with high frequency trading, I can sell, you know, thousands of stocks a second, a million of stock a second.
00:06:26
Speaker
They have no relationship or attachment to the company whatsoever.
00:06:29
Speaker
Right.
00:06:30
Speaker
It's just a placeholder for money at that point.
00:06:32
Speaker
Sure.
00:06:33
Speaker
Right.
00:06:33
Speaker
So the days of men building businesses and those businesses being public businesses are over.
00:06:41
Speaker
Well, I think they're coming back obviously, but for a very long time, the people that run the companies are not the people whose skin is in the game in these companies.
00:06:52
Speaker
Right.
00:06:53
Speaker
So like Henry Ford, he made him, he made Ford Motor Company what it was.
00:07:05
Speaker
and capital were tied into it.
00:07:08
Speaker
So his success personally was tied up, you know, with the company's success.
00:07:14
Speaker
They were one in the same thing.
00:07:16
Speaker
And it's that skin in the game that makes companies do things that companies should do.
00:07:23
Speaker
When we look out across, you know, the marketplace, we see a lot of companies doing shit that companies really shouldn't be doing, you know, things that may be deleterious to their ability
00:07:35
Speaker
to continue earning revenue.
00:07:38
Speaker
Well, it's just a massive, massive principal agent problem where you've got a human agent who is pursuing incentives that are not aligned to the principal.
00:07:51
Speaker
And the principal, frankly, is like not even a person.
00:07:54
Speaker
The principal is like this massive...
00:07:57
Speaker
incentive gradient that's so much larger than any one human.
00:08:00
Speaker
It has kind of like this, uh, what's what's what some people in our sphere call an egregore.
00:08:06
Speaker
It's, it's this, uh, this faceless agglomeration of incentives that kind of takes on a life of its own.
00:08:18
Speaker
They have names.
00:08:19
Speaker
Larry Fink.
00:08:20
Speaker
Well, right.
00:08:20
Speaker
But I'm saying like a big company owned by like billions of shareholders.
00:08:27
Speaker
Well, no.
00:08:27
Speaker
So for anybody that's listening, it'll take you a little bit, but I promise you'll be well worth the effort.
00:08:33
Speaker
Vanguard is orders of magnitude larger than BlackRock.
00:08:38
Speaker
Larry Fink's a nothing burger in comparison.
00:08:41
Speaker
He's a bullet sponge.
00:08:46
Speaker
Just like Cloud Schwab is a fucking bullet sponge.
00:08:48
Speaker
A chew toy for the playoffs.
00:08:50
Speaker
Okay.
00:08:52
Speaker
Look at... It'll take you a while.
00:08:54
Speaker
Because damn if they don't make it difficult.
00:08:57
Speaker
But if you go through the various layers of...
00:09:02
Speaker
organizations and shell companies to get all the way to the bottom of who owns Vanguard.
00:09:08
Speaker
We'll probably have like one of those, you know, uh, one of those moments with the strings on the walls and the newspapers, you know, but I promise you it'll, it'll be your, your, the map that you use to view the world will make a lot more sense.
00:09:24
Speaker
So what Vanguard is, is a management company, right?
00:09:32
Speaker
So basically what they've done with kind of this agenda that has been thrust down Americans throats over the last decade, they used our own retirements against us, right?
00:09:45
Speaker
Our own retirement savings.
00:09:47
Speaker
They used our shares against us, right?
00:09:51
Speaker
The plan, the hell that most people have been living through, a large portion of it
00:09:57
Speaker
was caused by private industry and not just by the government.
00:10:01
Speaker
The government played a hand, but a majority of, you know, people's data, a frustration and problems, whether it be the deterioration of housing conditions, social conditions through, you know, contents.
00:10:20
Speaker
A lot of the, a lot of the programs rolled out in schools are,
00:10:25
Speaker
created by companies that then sell them to the department of education and then pulled out all the way down the line.
00:10:34
Speaker
But again, these are private companies that are doing this.
00:10:37
Speaker
So who owns these companies?
00:10:39
Speaker
Well, you do, right?
00:10:40
Speaker
You're an IRA.
00:10:43
Speaker
So what they do is they manage your retirement fund and in these money market funds and mutual funds, they basically buy a whole bunch of shares and all the, I mean, it doesn't matter what public trading company you pick.
00:10:57
Speaker
And you'll find like the three largest shareholders are probably like BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street.
00:11:02
Speaker
Not necessarily in that order, depending, but I guarantee you they'll be there.
00:11:07
Speaker
And those basically are the managers.
00:11:09
Speaker
And by managers, because, you know, boomers, they don't really care.
00:11:14
Speaker
Well, most of them don't really care, you know, what their money is doing as long as their retirement is there when they need it, right?
00:11:21
Speaker
Sure.
00:11:21
Speaker
So they're not tracking what these companies are doing and they...
00:11:27
Speaker
are not voting their share.
00:11:30
Speaker
Like, I am- It's just the same as like in Guatemala, people, you know, selling their vote for tamales.
00:11:36
Speaker
It's like they don't- That's exactly what it is.
00:11:38
Speaker
Well, except for these people don't even know that they have a vote.
00:11:41
Speaker
Right, right, right.
00:11:42
Speaker
What I suggest everyone do that's listening is to go to whatever, you know, portfolio,
00:11:52
Speaker
you know, manager tool that you use.
00:11:55
Speaker
I didn't realize how much of a say that I had.
00:11:59
Speaker
For some reason, when I set this up, I selected like paper transmission or whatever.
00:12:05
Speaker
It's basically paper communication.
00:12:06
Speaker
Like you send me physical mail, right?
00:12:10
Speaker
And then I was amazed.
00:12:13
Speaker
I mean, every single, like my mailman probably hates my guts because every single day,
00:12:21
Speaker
I probably have three or four different shareholder votes, little ones, proxy votes, all types of stuff, right?
00:12:28
Speaker
The amount of say that you have in these companies as a shareholders quite substantial, right?
00:12:37
Speaker
Except for you're never told about it.
00:12:39
Speaker
And that's the point.
00:12:40
Speaker
Is that true though?
00:12:41
Speaker
I mean, but don't you need, I mean, like, aren't you, aren't you like one of, you know, a hundred million?
00:12:46
Speaker
Isn't it, isn't it the same as trying to vote in a standard election?
00:12:49
Speaker
Yes.
00:12:50
Speaker
Think of every, that's the same as every boycott.
00:12:53
Speaker
This is the thing.
00:12:54
Speaker
They're not, the BlackRock guys, they don't own any fucking chairs.
00:12:58
Speaker
You do.
00:13:00
Speaker
They're just driving the bus.
00:13:01
Speaker
Sure.
00:13:03
Speaker
So you would need some kind of activism, awareness raising.
00:13:07
Speaker
to like let people know and coordinate.
00:13:10
Speaker
Yeah, so it's much easier to just send mail to all the shareholders.
00:13:13
Speaker
Right.
00:13:14
Speaker
Yeah, you can be a lot more targeted.
00:13:15
Speaker
All right, so yeah, so he is one of the parties that, so everybody that's been watching politics or really anything, because I mean, it's becoming manifest everywhere, right?
00:13:30
Speaker
It seems like two factions are fighting, right?
00:13:33
Speaker
And we're kind of like stuck in the middle, right?
00:13:37
Speaker
And Jamie represents one of those factions, right?
00:13:41
Speaker
So Jamie Dimon is the head of the world's largest bank and the Klaus house in Davos represents the European banking system.
00:13:54
Speaker
So what Jamie Dimon has at stake is, I'm sure every one of your listeners has heard of central bank digital currencies.
00:14:02
Speaker
Yeah, yeah.
00:14:03
Speaker
Yeah.
00:14:03
Speaker
You know who doesn't like central bank digital currencies?
00:14:07
Speaker
Banks.
00:14:08
Speaker
Okay.
00:14:08
Speaker
Why is that?
00:14:09
Speaker
Because if the government controls capital formation and you're a bank, you're put out of business.
00:14:15
Speaker
Basically, the CBDC purports to do a lot of the same things that banks do and therefore- Does all of it.
00:14:20
Speaker
Does all of it.
00:14:21
Speaker
Any commercial merchant banking, basically, I mean, even international banking because it's just going to be rolled up into the IMF.
00:14:28
Speaker
That's the plan.
00:14:29
Speaker
Anybody thinks I'm exaggerating can go to their search browser and never get it.
00:14:36
Speaker
I don't know what browser does that search function on and type in black rock going direct reset plan.
00:14:42
Speaker
Right.
00:14:43
Speaker
And black rock is dumb enough to have that shit still on their website because they're stupid.
00:14:47
Speaker
Right.
00:14:48
Speaker
This is what was pitched at Jackson Hole in August.
00:14:55
Speaker
To understand why these factions are fighting, you have to know what they're fighting about.
00:15:02
Speaker
And the easy way to explain that is a rhetorical question.
00:15:09
Speaker
Majority, actually, I guarantee all of your listeners, if I were to say, who controls the U.S. monetary system?
00:15:16
Speaker
They'll probably tell me the Federal Reserve.
00:15:18
Speaker
That's right.
00:15:20
Speaker
Most everybody.
00:15:21
Speaker
Right.
00:15:22
Speaker
But that's not really true, is it?
00:15:25
Speaker
So there's this, you know, when they say like, oh, there's this, you know, $40 trillion out there in the world.
00:15:33
Speaker
That's how much, what's, I'm sorry, $400 trillion out there in the world, right?
00:15:39
Speaker
The Federal Reserve prints, and by prints, I mean, purchases treasuries from, so basically a government, just like a content business, needs a distribution layer.
00:15:55
Speaker
You could own all the movies in the world, and without movie theaters and streaming services, all those movies are worth zero dollars.
00:16:03
Speaker
The banks are how the money gets out.
00:16:05
Speaker
Exactly.
00:16:05
Speaker
Well, yeah.
00:16:07
Speaker
The government needs to sell its IOUs to somebody, and the government is extremely inefficient at selling its own IOUs and generally gets the shaft every time by itself.
00:16:18
Speaker
It generally shafts itself every time it tries to do
00:16:32
Speaker
sell some government IOUs because they're in the business IOUs.
00:16:35
Speaker
But instead, instead with a CBDC, we could just put like your social security number would be attached to some bank account where the U.S. government could just directly add zeros.
00:16:48
Speaker
Yes.
00:16:48
Speaker
But to describe what they're fighting about, because this is literally like they're fighting for literally all the models right now.
Global Financial Relations and Policies
00:16:56
Speaker
So the Federal Reserve is the way that you keep all of those banks on the same team.
00:17:02
Speaker
Everyone that probably has heard some crazy conspiracy theory about you going to send the Federal Reserve, I'll fucking tell you, it's really easy.
00:17:09
Speaker
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and BNY.
00:17:14
Speaker
The Federal Reserve is owned entirely by its shareholders.
00:17:28
Speaker
they're all playing on the same team.
00:17:31
Speaker
Right.
00:17:31
Speaker
Right.
00:17:32
Speaker
And tying them all together into a joint venture is the way you get them all to play on the same team.
00:17:38
Speaker
All right.
00:17:38
Speaker
Nobody fucks anybody else because you're just really fucking yourself because all your money is in this giant pot together.
00:17:45
Speaker
Right.
00:17:45
Speaker
So that's how you get everybody from, you know, doing bad stuff.
00:17:48
Speaker
But nine tenths out of every dollar in the world were not created by the Federal Reserve.
00:17:55
Speaker
Right.
00:17:55
Speaker
They're not created by U.S. banks at all.
00:17:57
Speaker
They're called offshore dollars or Euro dollars.
00:18:00
Speaker
These are dollars.
00:18:01
Speaker
So when people say the word petrodollar, right?
00:18:05
Speaker
Or, you know, world reserve currency, that's what they're actually talking about.
00:18:10
Speaker
They just don't know any better, right?
00:18:12
Speaker
The fact that the Euro dollar or, you know, the petrodollar is even called the dollars an incredible obfuscation and misnomer, right?
00:18:22
Speaker
Because in order to get a dollar, you need to buy some treasuries
00:18:27
Speaker
put those treasuries in your vaults as reserves and create loans against those.
00:18:35
Speaker
And those loans that you created, if I have a dollar in reserve, I'm going to lend, I'm going to create loans for $9, right?
00:18:46
Speaker
So those other $9 I just loaned out to people, I printed because I don't have $9 in my vault.
00:18:53
Speaker
I have one dollar.
00:18:55
Speaker
So those new $9 are effectively printed dollars.
00:18:59
Speaker
But when the bank, when HSBC spins up a $100 million line of credit for Indonesian rice wholesaler to go buy $100 million worth of rice from a grower in India, they use dollars.
00:19:18
Speaker
He paid that Indian in dollars.
00:19:20
Speaker
But HSBC, Hong Kong, didn't have no dollars.
00:19:29
Speaker
They're not real dollars because they're not backed by treasuries.
00:19:34
Speaker
And what are these dollars indexed to?
00:19:36
Speaker
Because they're loans, remember?
00:19:38
Speaker
The same thing with your credit card, same thing with your mortgage.
00:19:41
Speaker
They're indexed to LIBOR.
00:19:43
Speaker
Who says LIBOR?
00:19:45
Speaker
It's the London Interbank Overnight Exchange Rate.
00:19:49
Speaker
20 banks in London set LIBOR, and there's no US banks on the LIBOR.
00:19:54
Speaker
Okay, so to pan back for a second.
00:19:57
Speaker
Nine tenths out of every dollar in existence are indexed to something called LIBOR.
00:20:02
Speaker
Right, so we're saying it's a war between Federal Reserve and LIBOR?
00:20:08
Speaker
Are those certain factions?
00:20:09
Speaker
Kind of, yeah.
00:20:10
Speaker
So the Federal Reserve under Trump rolled out something called SOFR, S-O-F-R, a little bit.
00:20:15
Speaker
to affect January 2020, which is why you notice that the crazy got cranked up to 11 beginning last year.
00:20:23
Speaker
Yeah, the SOFR LIBOR split.
00:20:26
Speaker
So basically if nine tenths of out of all the dollars in the world are indexed to LIBOR, interest rate that I control, right?
00:20:33
Speaker
And not the Fed rate.
00:20:34
Speaker
That's like me saying I own 90% of your company.
00:20:38
Speaker
Well, shit, it's not really your company now, is it?
00:20:40
Speaker
Right.
00:20:43
Speaker
But all those offshore dollars, they're not real dollars, right?
00:20:47
Speaker
They're indexed to a foreign rate and they're hypothecated.
00:20:51
Speaker
So this is where the derivatives come from.
00:20:54
Speaker
Like notice how I said, oh, I spun up a hundred million dollar credit line, right?
00:20:59
Speaker
This is where the margins come from for like derivative trading.
00:21:03
Speaker
This is where derivatives come from.
00:21:05
Speaker
Right.
00:21:05
Speaker
So you're basically the offshore dollar market is a, is a giant margin loan, right?
00:21:12
Speaker
Money that doesn't really exist.
00:21:14
Speaker
Right.
00:21:15
Speaker
So what leverage give us on the way up, it takes twice on the way down.
00:21:21
Speaker
Sure.
00:21:22
Speaker
So, so for, and my board is effectively splitting the, I'm doing a terrible job explaining it, but it is effectively, um, quarantining or severing
00:21:35
Speaker
the European and American economy.
00:21:38
Speaker
And you were mentioning in another place that essentially because those were leveraged, hypothecated, non-backed dollars, that the sort of collapse of the system is drawing capital back into the U.S. because of all these foreign... These people who hold these LIBOR dollars are trying to get out of that system.
00:22:05
Speaker
Is that right?
00:22:06
Speaker
Well, yeah, they're not going to come in in LIBOR dollars.
00:22:08
Speaker
They're going to come in in other types of securities.
00:22:10
Speaker
Yes.
00:22:11
Speaker
So I got a very interesting notification.
00:22:14
Speaker
I got a letter from in November or December of 2022 from JPMorgan Chase.
00:22:23
Speaker
It said, we will no longer be guaranteeing liquidity for any LIBOR denominated instrument.
00:22:31
Speaker
So if you have any
00:22:34
Speaker
LIBOR-denominated interest instrument, you need to sell it by January 1 of 2023 because we won't service it.
00:22:43
Speaker
So that's telling you the U.S. banks are not allowing any LIBOR-denominated instruments into their banks as deposits.
00:22:51
Speaker
And this actually all started in August of 2019 when Jamie got, like, this is why you got COVID, because COVID basically
00:23:07
Speaker
So in August of 2019, Jamie Dimon came out and said, we will no longer be accepting European corporate debt as collateral for loans.
00:23:19
Speaker
And by the end of the trading day, everybody else on Wall Street did the exact same thing.
00:23:23
Speaker
It was, you know, like with Peter Thiel in venture capital, when Jamie Dimon says something on Wall Street, you can't really afford to bet he's wrong.
00:23:33
Speaker
So you just do it.
00:23:34
Speaker
The next day, he came out and said,
00:23:39
Speaker
We will no longer be accepting European sovereign debt as collateral.
00:23:44
Speaker
By the end of the trading day, you couldn't get a loan on all the European sovereign debt in the world.
00:23:53
Speaker
They're basically acknowledging that the European governments are such a large credit risk that they're not even going to give you a high interest rate margin loan on it.
00:24:02
Speaker
That bad.
00:24:03
Speaker
Wow.
00:24:03
Speaker
And they've been at war ever since.
00:24:05
Speaker
So what Jamie Dimon is saying, I mean...
00:24:08
Speaker
What Jamie Dimon is saying here is, well, first off, Jamie Dimon was uninvited from Davos, which is kind of funny.
00:24:17
Speaker
Like your World Economic Forum doesn't invite the head or uninvites the head of the most powerful central bank in the world.
00:24:24
Speaker
Or sorry, the most powerful bank in the world.
00:24:25
Speaker
When did that happen?
00:24:27
Speaker
Last year was his first year back.
00:24:29
Speaker
Last year, he said interest rates are going to be higher for longer and you're going to have to deal with that.
00:24:35
Speaker
And oil has been around.
00:24:37
Speaker
for 100 years and is going to be around for another 100 years more.
00:24:40
Speaker
So you're going to have to get used to that too.
00:24:43
Speaker
And then he left.
00:24:43
Speaker
And he was in Dallas for like an afternoon.
00:24:46
Speaker
Apparently they've kept him around for a couple of days, which I bet they wish that they didn't.
00:24:54
Speaker
reporters gasp live on air as America's most powerful banker, praises Donald Trump's policies, defends the MAGA movement and blasts the Biden administration.
00:25:10
Speaker
Trump was right about getting out of NATO.
00:25:13
Speaker
He was right about stopping immigration.
00:25:15
Speaker
He was right about the economy and Democrats just need to grow up.
00:25:21
Speaker
If you look at JP Morgan's campaign donations, they are the only, not JP Morgan, we'll call it the commercial banking industry.
00:25:30
Speaker
Commercial banking industry
00:25:35
Speaker
industry and the whole financial sector that is donating to right-wingers.
00:25:40
Speaker
I mean, if I were to tell you that Goldman Sachs has been stroking larger campaign checks to Marjorie Taylor Greene's and Matt Gaetz's than Democrats, you'd probably be surprised.
00:25:50
Speaker
That is surprising.
00:25:51
Speaker
All the pension funds, all the venture funds, all of the others, the insurance companies, the IRAs, I'm sorry, the money market funds and mutual funds, they're all donating on the D side of the column.
00:26:06
Speaker
But a couple of years ago, and they're not just like donating to right, we're just like Republicans.
00:26:12
Speaker
They're donating to right-wingers.
00:26:14
Speaker
Yeah, and so like, I'm interested in...
00:26:19
Speaker
I'm interested in how you would contextualize this SOFR-LIBOR, this US-Europe dichotomy.
00:26:26
Speaker
I'm kind of debating on how far do I go into it because on this podcast, it took me three hours for me to break it all down because it's one of the most complex stories in the world, which is why nobody says it.
00:26:40
Speaker
Well, specifically in terms of like why these, this particular faction would support the right and support Trump.
00:26:52
Speaker
Is it just because, you know, it's American policies, man, right?
00:26:57
Speaker
Like everything that every policy that, you know, the commercial banks proposed, right?
00:27:06
Speaker
Basically everything that the commercial banks, the primes like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase,
00:27:13
Speaker
whatever they were saying that we should be doing just miraculously turned into Trump economic and financial policy six months later.
00:27:21
Speaker
Right.
00:27:22
Speaker
Right.
00:27:22
Speaker
Yeah.
00:27:23
Speaker
Cause I mean, he's a, he's not a world.
00:27:26
Speaker
Same thing with defense policy, the exact same thing.
00:27:28
Speaker
Right.
00:27:29
Speaker
So think about what we're, what we're talking about as far as the publicly traded companies versus private companies, right?
00:27:35
Speaker
Publicly traded companies and their CEO managers that are put in place by people with agendas like Larry Fink and Vanguard.
00:27:42
Speaker
All the owners of Vanguard are European by the way.
00:27:45
Speaker
Very old ones.
00:27:48
Speaker
So like the Raytheons, the Lockheeds, right?
00:27:53
Speaker
They're not on your team or they're not on the Pentagon's team.
00:27:58
Speaker
you know, lobbying for the exact opposite of what the Pentagon wants to do.
00:28:02
Speaker
Like all throughout, all throughout Ukraine, like never in my life have I ever thought I would see a president of the United States come out and say some military shit.
00:28:09
Speaker
Like when Biden was in Poland, like we're going to, we're going to be in Ukraine soon.
00:28:14
Speaker
Right.
00:28:15
Speaker
And joint chiefs of staff who never get on camera ever.
00:28:19
Speaker
So when the chiefs of staff come out and say, uh,
00:28:22
Speaker
Everything that the president said yesterday was bullshit.
00:28:25
Speaker
And then you see the press secretary come out the day after that and go, yeah, everything the president said was bullshit.
00:28:30
Speaker
Sorry.
00:28:30
Speaker
And this happened like three or four times throughout Ukraine.
00:28:33
Speaker
Like the Pentagon was counter signaling the Biden administration, the state department again and again and again.
00:28:39
Speaker
It was the Pentagon that counter signaled the Obama administration in Syria.
00:28:43
Speaker
And so what do you think that they're like?
00:28:44
Speaker
Okay.
00:28:44
Speaker
So, so connect the dots for me between the Pentagon and JP Morgan.
00:28:49
Speaker
Well, the Pentagon is really simple, man.
00:28:51
Speaker
Pentagon really only cares about one thing.
00:28:54
Speaker
None of these people are on the same team.
00:28:56
Speaker
Everybody's just on their own team.
00:28:59
Speaker
It's just that certain people's interests for the time being on certain issues are aligning.
00:29:03
Speaker
Okay.
00:29:04
Speaker
So yeah, connect that for me.
00:29:06
Speaker
Okay.
00:29:06
Speaker
So with the Pentagon, the Pentagon...
00:29:10
Speaker
I mean, if you look at some, not the stuff that comes out of what's that stupid think tank.
00:29:16
Speaker
Like if you look at stuff like the DIA puts out a defense intelligence agency, and then what comes out of the State Department and the civilian intelligence agency, it's the opposite, right?
00:29:27
Speaker
The Pentagon knows is, the Pentagon doesn't want to fight a war against Russia.
00:29:33
Speaker
It doesn't, right?
00:29:34
Speaker
Because the Pentagon knows
00:29:36
Speaker
of things right like um the pentagon's lift the the u.s military's lift capabilities are like nothing that any military ever in the history of the world has been able to do we can go fight anywhere anytime we have the ability to move more man and material around the planet than anyone has ever been able to do that in the history of the end
00:30:01
Speaker
Sure.
00:30:02
Speaker
We can put 10,000 people anywhere in 36 hours, but that doesn't mean fuck all in Russia, right?
00:30:10
Speaker
Because it doesn't matter how much men material you can move.
00:30:15
Speaker
If you're fighting, what Russia is really, really, really good at is defense, right?
00:30:20
Speaker
Everybody thing, everybody hears all the bullshit about Putin trying to invade everyone.
00:30:26
Speaker
But the reason that his progress has been so slow in Ukraine,
00:30:31
Speaker
but also so effective in Ukraine, right?
00:30:35
Speaker
The ratio is what now went from 10 to one to 14 to one, right?
00:30:39
Speaker
If every one Russian dies, 14 Ukrainians die.
00:30:42
Speaker
The reason for that is you're basically watching a defensive army, an army that is built entirely for defense, just slowly moving up its line of defense, right?
00:30:53
Speaker
It's not advancing.
00:30:55
Speaker
So the U.S. does not have the ability, nor does any other
00:31:00
Speaker
this fucking planet have the ability to beat Russia on its own border.
00:31:06
Speaker
It's the border.
00:31:09
Speaker
It's just a question of realism about capabilities.
00:31:11
Speaker
Is that what you're saying?
00:31:12
Speaker
Yes.
00:31:12
Speaker
The Pentagon knows it can't win shit right now.
00:31:16
Speaker
And also what the Biden administration did in September, the amount of resentment that
00:31:24
Speaker
is all throughout the Pentagon for what the Biden administration did withdrawing from Afghanistan is, I mean, get any veteran, ask anybody, anyone who's listening, ask.
00:31:34
Speaker
Oh yeah.
00:31:35
Speaker
The level of vitriol you will hear is insane.
00:31:40
Speaker
And that's when people that are retired and out of the military, people still in there lose their fucking minds, right?
00:31:47
Speaker
So I guess basically you would say that they share a common enemy and therefore, and basically, so it's just sort of those people.
00:31:57
Speaker
Well, because it's really, why does this opposing faction want to drag us into World War III?
00:32:04
Speaker
That's really the only reason why they're a lot.
00:32:07
Speaker
The only reason Jamie Dimon and the Pentagon are on the same team is because the people that Jamie Dimon are angry at are the same people that are trying to drag the U.S. into World War III.
00:32:17
Speaker
And so Trump is sort of representative of like, hey, what if we tried being sane again?
00:32:23
Speaker
Yeah, because you really, our position is a lot like Russia.
00:32:27
Speaker
We don't need to win.
00:32:28
Speaker
We can just stay as we are and you lose.
00:32:33
Speaker
Yeah.
00:32:34
Speaker
Right.
00:32:34
Speaker
So I guess it's really hard to kind of paint this picture together in a short and concise fashion.
00:32:42
Speaker
Well, no, let's just paint Europe.
00:32:44
Speaker
It's much easier to paint their picture and understand all of this a lot better.
00:32:49
Speaker
So the head of NATO, the very first head of NATO, British guy, Lord something or other, you can look up this quote.
00:32:58
Speaker
He was asked by the telegraph, he was in the late 50s, early 60s, what the purpose of NATO was.
00:33:08
Speaker
This was when NATO was brand new.
00:33:09
Speaker
And he said it was simple.
00:33:11
Speaker
It's to keep the Russians out, the Germans down, and the Americans into the tab.
00:33:16
Speaker
And it doesn't seem like that's changed much.
00:33:19
Speaker
So the real problem with Europe is Europe's had a money printer in its basement for a really long time, right?
00:33:27
Speaker
Basically during the Marshall Plan, I don't want to go into it too much, but generally after a war, you get a metric fuck ton of inflation, right?
00:33:35
Speaker
The winner gets the inflation.
00:33:37
Speaker
So the way that we solve the inflation problem
00:33:41
Speaker
was fucking brilliant.
00:33:42
Speaker
Because not only did we not get inflation, we got the 50s, which was amazing.
00:33:47
Speaker
The amount of quality of life increases from the 40s to the 50s was mind-boggling, even at the time.
00:33:54
Speaker
It's mind-boggling now, because we live in a fucking dystopia.
00:33:57
Speaker
But at the time, it was amazing.
00:33:58
Speaker
It was a staggering net.
00:34:01
Speaker
And we did that all at the same time as we stopped communism from tearing into the rest of Europe.
00:34:08
Speaker
Right.
00:34:08
Speaker
So you know what really, really, really likes communism?
00:34:12
Speaker
Bombed out, destroyed countries with no infrastructure and or jobs and or prospects of any kind.
00:34:19
Speaker
Sure.
00:34:20
Speaker
Those countries like communism.
00:34:22
Speaker
And that was Europe.
00:34:23
Speaker
Right.
00:34:24
Speaker
So we were basically, unless we fixed Europe, we were just going to get fucking more communism.
00:34:29
Speaker
We'd be back there doing the same exact shit.
00:34:31
Speaker
So the way we couldn't just go print a bunch of money at home and then send it over there because we would just get more inflation because we'd just come back here.
00:34:41
Speaker
And we're not going to give them a bunch of gold either.
00:34:44
Speaker
So what we did is we gave them the ability to lend in dollars, right?
00:34:48
Speaker
They couldn't, we wouldn't print money and give it to them.
00:34:51
Speaker
We just gave them the ability to borrow, right?
00:34:55
Speaker
We took print money basically.
00:34:57
Speaker
We gave them their own separate money printer.
00:34:59
Speaker
And the only copy out of that deal
00:35:01
Speaker
was that that money is for use offshore.
00:35:07
Speaker
It's where the offshore dollar markets come from.
00:35:10
Speaker
A bunch of corrupt banks, particularly private banks in Europe, particularly the UK, I don't know whether they did some Epstein stuff or whatever, but they managed to get what was supposed to be spread to the nations themselves, to the central banks of France and England.
00:35:28
Speaker
Somehow, and this is perfectly that happened on the English side, somehow ended up in the hands of Midlands Trust Bank, right?
00:35:37
Speaker
Somehow Midlands Trust Bank was able to get a hold of the ability to lend in dollars and no other bank was able to do it.
00:35:46
Speaker
This was, again, this was supposed to go to the Bank of England, but it didn't.
00:35:49
Speaker
So if you have the ability to borrow money, borrow dollars at a time where, A,
00:35:56
Speaker
No one in Europe has got that, just the dollars.
00:35:58
Speaker
But also the cost of capital is 11%, 12%, 13%.
00:36:02
Speaker
But the cost of capital in the States is like 4% or 5%.
00:36:05
Speaker
It's just arbitrage, just free money.
00:36:07
Speaker
It's basically, yes, exactly.
00:36:09
Speaker
So by the end of the 50s, into the 60s, they had stitched up every single bank on the item, right?
00:36:15
Speaker
Through various holding companies and shell companies, they pretty much...
00:36:19
Speaker
kind of ran all of the private banks in the UK.
00:36:23
Speaker
By the end of the 60s, this little magic money printer got most of the banks in the continent as well.
00:36:30
Speaker
So you got most of the, so the majority states in a lot of these banks were held by the same groups of people.
00:36:38
Speaker
So by the end of Europe, by the end of the 60s, by the end of the 70s, the European banking system is kind of all stitched up.
00:36:47
Speaker
So what they did with that money printer next is really, really pisses me off to a tremendous amount.
00:36:53
Speaker
Everyone blames Nixon for getting off the gold standard, but that's a really lame duck explanation of what happened.
00:37:00
Speaker
Because what actually happened was, unless you factor in the lost money printer, it just looks like Nixon's just a big mean man that just hated gold for some reason.
00:37:10
Speaker
Not the case at all.
00:37:12
Speaker
So they use this money printer because remember dollars were redeemable in gold at the time.
00:37:18
Speaker
They are no longer.
00:37:20
Speaker
So what, after they rebuilt themselves by the seventies, Europe was back in the swing of it.
00:37:25
Speaker
So they got the bright idea to start printing more dollars and then trying to redeem them for gold in the U S they were using our money printer to drain the U S's gold reserves and forced Nixon to close the gold window.
00:37:40
Speaker
They never, they never tell that part of this one.
00:37:42
Speaker
Right.
00:37:42
Speaker
There was like, oh yeah, there was a huge draw on the gold window and we didn't have all the gold.
00:37:49
Speaker
So we had to close the gold window.
00:37:51
Speaker
Really?
00:37:51
Speaker
We have more gold than anybody.
00:37:54
Speaker
So who had more gold than us?
00:37:55
Speaker
Nobody.
00:37:56
Speaker
All right.
00:37:56
Speaker
So how did they get that much capital to drain our gold reserves?
00:37:59
Speaker
How'd that happen?
00:38:00
Speaker
Because we gave them the money printer.
00:38:01
Speaker
Right.
00:38:01
Speaker
Bingo.
00:38:02
Speaker
So if you've got a money printer in your basement the entire time, you really have zero incentive to ever get your shit together.
00:38:09
Speaker
Do you see any linkage between his remarks and Javier Millet's remarks, Jamie Dimon's?
00:38:17
Speaker
I do not speak on Javier Millet because the jury is still out.
00:38:23
Speaker
I trust no politician because they have no stake in the game.
00:38:27
Speaker
There really is representatives of other interests.
00:38:30
Speaker
And I don't like the interests behind Javier Millet.
00:38:33
Speaker
So I'll see what he does.
00:38:34
Speaker
Okay.
00:38:35
Speaker
Okay.
00:38:36
Speaker
Interesting.
00:38:37
Speaker
Uh, when you, when you say the interest behind him, who are you talking about?
00:38:40
Speaker
Uh, he's a very wealthy industrialist in Argentina, I believe owns, uh, one of the major news stations there or one of the major television stations there.
00:38:51
Speaker
Sorry.
00:38:53
Speaker
He was the guy, this isn't the hobby or really his first trip to the left.
00:38:57
Speaker
Yeah.
00:38:58
Speaker
Right.
00:38:59
Speaker
You look at his other ones, his other speeches at the left.
00:39:02
Speaker
uh, for his career in politics, uh, are much different.
00:39:07
Speaker
So I'll be able to lay as the mouthpiece for the person that funded his entire campaign and really was his only employer since his early twenties.
00:39:17
Speaker
So it looks an awful lot like Zelensky put that way.
00:39:21
Speaker
Oh, interesting.
00:39:22
Speaker
Okay.
00:39:22
Speaker
He was a creation of Igor Kolonoisky.
00:39:25
Speaker
He owned all the TV stations.
00:39:27
Speaker
in Ukraine.
00:39:28
Speaker
He also owned Prebot Bank, the largest bank in Ukraine that went tits up.
Eastern European Politics and Economics
00:39:35
Speaker
And when Zelensky, one of Zelensky's first acts as president was rolling the failing Prebot Bank into the Ukrainian central bank.
00:39:45
Speaker
Ivo Kolomoisky is the guy, which is really funny for a Jewish guy to be the guy behind the Azov battalion.
00:39:52
Speaker
But the Azov battalion, the things in Ukraine
00:39:58
Speaker
Ukraine's one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
00:40:00
Speaker
So you need guns to get things done.
00:40:03
Speaker
So if you're a billionaire, you're not going to stay a billionaire unless you have your own private army.
00:40:08
Speaker
That private army is called the Azoth Battalion.
00:40:10
Speaker
I know a lot of what he said may sound controversial, but it's only a couple searches away.
00:40:16
Speaker
So yeah, in your cool noise, you also come to charisma.
00:40:18
Speaker
Just an interesting factoid for anybody that's interested.
00:40:22
Speaker
Yeah, that normally, so Zelensky normally gets characterized as like essentially just a sort of DNC puppet or connected to whatever their thing is.
00:40:32
Speaker
And it sounds like you're arguing that there's... I'm not saying that.
00:40:36
Speaker
I'm saying as a fact.
00:40:38
Speaker
You know what else Igor Kolomoisky owned?
00:40:40
Speaker
Igor Kolomoisky owned 50% of MC squared modeling.
00:40:45
Speaker
Do you know who the other owners, the 225% owners in MC squared modeling are?
00:40:51
Speaker
One, John Luke Brunel.
00:40:53
Speaker
And two, one, Jeffrey Epstein.
00:40:55
Speaker
Oh, interesting.
00:40:56
Speaker
Yeah.
00:40:57
Speaker
In fact, MC Squared Modeling is their offices were in the same offices as Burisma in Kiev and Tel Aviv.
00:41:09
Speaker
So Jeffrey Epstein's files are actually Iberko Moises files.
00:41:13
Speaker
Fascinating.
00:41:14
Speaker
If you have a very expensive 12-year-old habit,
00:41:18
Speaker
you know, whoever controls the flow of the 12 year olds.
00:41:22
Speaker
Yeah.
00:41:23
Speaker
There's an immense amount of power in that.
00:41:25
Speaker
Yeah.
00:41:25
Speaker
I mean, I may be really crappy at getting this map out all in one shot because it is a complex thing, but,
00:41:31
Speaker
map makes things make a lot more sense.
00:41:34
Speaker
So Yavier Malay is giving me Zelensky vibes.
00:41:38
Speaker
Like Zelensky literally played his last acting job was in a TV show entirely funded by Igor Kolomoisky that only put on Igor Kolomoisky's channel called Savior of the Nation, where this teacher somehow manages to become president and throw out all the corrupt people and save Ukraine.
00:42:01
Speaker
Right.
00:42:02
Speaker
And in the TV show, he has this made up political party called the Svoboda party.
00:42:09
Speaker
You know what party is in power in Ukraine right now?
00:42:13
Speaker
Zelensky's party?
00:42:14
Speaker
The Svoboda party.
00:42:16
Speaker
A fucking made up party that was made up for a fucking TV show.
00:42:20
Speaker
Like he is still acting.
00:42:25
Speaker
So yeah, like this guy, he's a creation of this person and everything around him, the whole PR construct that got this guy, global celebrity and rolled him into
00:42:43
Speaker
When I see a politician that's got a whole bunch of hands up his ass, I'm not as worried as when I see somebody become the president with only one dude's hand up his ass.
00:42:53
Speaker
That worries me more.
00:42:55
Speaker
So I'm a reserve judgment on Tavi O'Malley.
00:42:58
Speaker
Okay, but Diamond's your guy.
00:43:01
Speaker
I am a lot of people's guys, me included.
00:43:04
Speaker
Probably your guy too.
00:43:05
Speaker
Let me pull it to these- Europe, why they're in trouble.
00:43:09
Speaker
Yeah, you've got Europe, you've got US.
00:43:12
Speaker
Why Europe is in trouble is what matters.
00:43:15
Speaker
They've got the secret money printer in their basement.
00:43:18
Speaker
They've been bailing themselves out with it all the time.
00:43:21
Speaker
This is the only reason that the giant socialist states of Europe exist.
00:43:26
Speaker
is because this money printer that we left them allows them to exist.
00:43:30
Speaker
Right.
00:43:31
Speaker
So none of the banks have gotten their fucking houses in order.
00:43:35
Speaker
Why would you?
00:43:36
Speaker
Where after 2008, the U.S. banks had to get their house in order like hardcore.
00:43:42
Speaker
A tremendous amount of regulatory burden came down in the U.S. banks after 2008.
00:43:48
Speaker
I know a lot of people will sneer at that, but really reserve amounts more than double.
00:43:52
Speaker
Europeans, not so much.
00:43:54
Speaker
Every European bank right now is fucking insolvent.
00:43:57
Speaker
And it's not just me saying this.
00:43:59
Speaker
It's KPMG saying this.
00:44:00
Speaker
It's Deloitte saying this.
00:44:01
Speaker
It's EY.
00:44:02
Speaker
Even European PNC is saying this.
00:44:04
Speaker
Or sorry, PWC.
00:44:06
Speaker
They're insolvent.
00:44:07
Speaker
So if I'm insolvent, what the fuck do I care if you're going to roll out a central bank digital currency?
00:44:15
Speaker
Right?
00:44:15
Speaker
I don't care.
00:44:16
Speaker
You're going to give me a five-year heads up so I can move all my money.
00:44:20
Speaker
Oh, actually, I probably came up with a plan.
00:44:22
Speaker
But that gives me enough time to move all my money into all this green shit that we're going to push out.
00:44:27
Speaker
I get to be in the ground floor of all the green shit, and then the government is going to come in and subsidize a tremendous amount of it, making me multiples on my investment before the investment even gets started.
00:44:50
Speaker
Because if Europe goes on this system and nobody else goes on this system, not another dollar will flow into Europe, will be poverty stricken at the ass end of the world forever.
00:45:02
Speaker
And we'll just continue to trade with Asia.
00:45:03
Speaker
The Europe, none of this works unless the U.S.
00:45:13
Speaker
that we participate in the suicide pact.
00:45:15
Speaker
So the thesis would be that they are, that the sort of the American politicians who are trying to be on board with this or the people who are sort of counter signaling where like the diamonds and the pentagons of the world are.
00:45:31
Speaker
The reason they're doing that is essentially just because they are sort of either financially or like criminally compromised by these people.
00:45:39
Speaker
Yeah, you have $400 trillion, man.
00:45:41
Speaker
You can grab a lot of people.
00:45:42
Speaker
I mean, we saw dozens of congressmen and dozens of senators out in what it wasn't the Panama Papers.
00:45:47
Speaker
It was the Paradise Papers, whatever it is.
00:45:49
Speaker
You're not going to find any of the shit on shore.
00:45:50
Speaker
You're going to find it in little British tax haven islands under their kids' names.
00:45:56
Speaker
Nobody just...
00:45:58
Speaker
The whole thing about that guy that got caught with like gold bars and like checks who was named like lobbying secretly for Egypt, come the fuck on.
00:46:07
Speaker
I probably, I know how that shit works and I call it bullshit.
00:46:11
Speaker
Like that's not how that shit works.
00:46:14
Speaker
Right?
00:46:14
Speaker
Unless it's like some Cayman or Cyprian, you know, holding company, right?
00:46:20
Speaker
That owns shit, that owns a hundred percent of the shares to look at Cayman Island trust, then maybe I will believe it, but that's not what I'm seeing.
00:46:28
Speaker
But what I'm seeing is not how people want their money.
00:46:31
Speaker
Yeah, it's how you would tell the story if you wanted to tell the story for a moron.
00:46:36
Speaker
Bingo.
00:46:37
Speaker
I like your explanation better.
00:46:38
Speaker
So if all of your banks are... The European market has been doing negative interest rate government bonds for 11 years.
00:46:48
Speaker
You know what negative interest rate bonds are?
00:46:52
Speaker
Imagine if the interest rate on treasuries was negative 3%.
00:46:58
Speaker
Would you ever buy a treasury?
00:46:59
Speaker
Like, wait, you're not going to give me 3%.
00:47:01
Speaker
You're just going to like, you want me to buy this thing that just takes money for me?
00:47:05
Speaker
The rest of the such every other thing you could put money in would have to be so dismal and so volatile.
00:47:11
Speaker
So of course nobody did it.
00:47:13
Speaker
Well, what it was the European answer.
00:47:15
Speaker
We're going to mandate that people do it.
00:47:18
Speaker
And, uh, what was it?
00:47:19
Speaker
Eight years ago, nine years ago, because no one would buy their suicide bonds.
00:47:23
Speaker
They mandated that all pensions, right?
00:47:26
Speaker
All state pensions, all national pensions and all pensions that are inside the EU, including the private ones, have to have, depending on the country, in some countries cases, up to 70% of their portfolio in government bonds.
00:47:40
Speaker
Well, what does eight years of negative interest rate suicide bonds look like for your pension fund?
00:47:46
Speaker
A pension fund needs that of 8% or higher returns just to break even, just for the amount
00:47:53
Speaker
of money going out the door to magically the amount of money going in, they don't have 8% positive.
00:47:59
Speaker
They probably got 8% or larger negative because interest rates compound in both directions.
00:48:06
Speaker
So if you're Europe, how do you tell them, your citizenry, that not only is their currency, like their paychecks, because I mean, what, the German central bank, the German Bundesbank,
00:48:20
Speaker
recently, I mean, the Germans tried to use their secrecy laws against it, but KPMG knew that if it didn't publish it, nobody would take them seriously on a global stage ever again.
00:48:30
Speaker
So they published it anyways and broke a bunch of European security laws, right?
00:48:34
Speaker
The Bundesbank, the German central bank right now is underwater, $90 billion, and has, per the report, no way of recapitalizing itself.
00:48:44
Speaker
Germany's
00:48:48
Speaker
So all those police that are cracking rioters' faces, right?
00:48:52
Speaker
They're doing that for, I mean, the French police are famous for this shit.
00:48:55
Speaker
They're doing that for two reasons, a paycheck and their pension.
00:49:01
Speaker
Whose faces are they going to crack when you tell them not only do they have a paycheck, but their pension, their life savings is gone.
00:49:07
Speaker
You're gonna end up on a fucking spike, right?
00:49:10
Speaker
You're gonna need a miracle to cover this up.
00:49:12
Speaker
And the only other way that they've done it before, right,
00:49:15
Speaker
If you look into the origins of how World War I got started, you will see a great financial crisis.
00:49:21
Speaker
The British government went bankrupt.
00:49:25
Speaker
The French government went bankrupt.
00:49:27
Speaker
All that hyperinflation that everyone jokes about Weimar Germany for, that was France and England.
00:49:34
Speaker
The tucking English deliberately started a war that they know they couldn't win with the full intention of tricking America in.
00:49:44
Speaker
They did it again in World War II.
00:49:46
Speaker
This is kind of a theme.
00:49:48
Speaker
What they need is collateral, right?
00:49:51
Speaker
You need something to collateralize your currency with.
00:49:56
Speaker
And how a lot of countries are doing it now is resources, right?
00:50:02
Speaker
That's what Russia's doing.
00:50:03
Speaker
That's why China's buying so much gold, right?
00:50:06
Speaker
We're entering a world of hard money.
00:50:09
Speaker
They tried to recapitalize, or sorry, recollateralize themselves.
00:50:15
Speaker
It's called the rape of Russia.
00:50:17
Speaker
They're buying natural resources for pens on the dollar.
00:50:22
Speaker
They had it all stitched up.
00:50:24
Speaker
They fixed their hole in their balance sheet until one Vladimir Putin came around and threw out all the oligarchs.
00:50:32
Speaker
I'm not going to say where all those oligarchs went, but you can look.
00:50:35
Speaker
That's why they hate Vladimir Putin so much.
00:50:37
Speaker
They had their lifeboat and it got snatched right at the very last minute.
00:50:44
Speaker
They had
00:50:45
Speaker
the resources to collateralize the currency.
00:50:49
Speaker
This is the same reason why Europe is literally all of our EPA legislation, all of our EPA regulation is a carbon copy of Europe's.
00:50:59
Speaker
All of our privacy legislation is a, like literally they pass the dictates down and the politicians here implement them.
00:51:09
Speaker
Our regulatory regime of all kinds is a carbon copy of what got rolled up in Europe first.
00:51:16
Speaker
And the greatest thing that the Europeans have been able to do is to convince everyone that it is them that is just, you know, at the whims of the United States.
00:51:29
Speaker
And it's the United States doing this and it drives me fucking nuts.
00:51:33
Speaker
One of the fascinating things, you know, I really love Martyrmaid.
00:51:38
Speaker
He blocked me over a saucy response when I did to one of his tweets.
00:51:42
Speaker
I actually like Martyrmaid, and he did this Epstein three-parter that was just incredible.
00:51:50
Speaker
I love it.
00:51:51
Speaker
The picture that I came away from with that story was,
00:51:58
Speaker
was essentially, it's exactly what you would expect in our current technological environment.
00:52:05
Speaker
It's sort of hidden in plain sight.
00:52:06
Speaker
Like if, you know, England ruled the waves, right?
00:52:14
Speaker
And America, you know, had this power, this air power, the sort of next frontier of control is information.
00:52:26
Speaker
And essentially, when you look at like UK and Israeli intelligence and the influence they're able to exert.
00:52:33
Speaker
They're better at the spy ship than we are.
00:52:37
Speaker
They've been at it for a lot longer.
00:52:39
Speaker
Think about the European continent's politics all throughout the last 800 years.
00:52:42
Speaker
They are way better.
00:52:44
Speaker
We're kind of dupes when it comes to the spy ship.
00:52:46
Speaker
Yeah, and it's like for them, it is...
00:52:53
Speaker
obviously unambiguously preferable to maintain this orientation of like, Oh, you know, we're, we're so small.
00:53:03
Speaker
We're so weak.
00:53:04
Speaker
America's so big and bad and mean while, while absolutely just controlling so many, I mean, it's like every famous person you ever heard of any, like in every position of power, like it was crazy how many people were on that list.
00:53:17
Speaker
And, uh, Robert Maxwell's daughter, huh?
00:53:21
Speaker
And it's not even that it's in, in it like, when you think about what it took to do that, it's like, yes, expensive, yes, involved, but like not as expensive as 11 carrier strike groups, not as expensive.
00:53:37
Speaker
You know what I mean?
00:53:37
Speaker
Like it, it, it,
00:53:40
Speaker
That amount of power and leverage, I mean, it's just like what Soros did with the DAs.
00:53:46
Speaker
It's like he bought this power so cheap.
00:53:50
Speaker
It's unreal.
00:53:51
Speaker
Unreal how cheap it was.
00:53:53
Speaker
And he is, not Soros, but Epstein is a great threat to pull because you get the UK and you get Israel.
00:54:02
Speaker
Israel really popped up right after the US said, no, you don't get to go invade.
00:54:08
Speaker
Egypt, remember immediately after World War II, Eisenhower, right?
00:54:13
Speaker
Israel was like a fucking backwater, right?
00:54:16
Speaker
They had the ability to go to Palestine all they fucking wanted to before World War II, right?
00:54:22
Speaker
Why did it become such a prerogative, right, to where, like, I mean, this became, like, the thing, the narrative?
00:54:31
Speaker
Right after World War II, the Egyptians took the Suez Canal back.
00:54:36
Speaker
And Britain took what naval power it had and worked it there.
00:54:42
Speaker
It was about to stop, start bombarding, and eventually go to war with Egypt.
00:54:48
Speaker
Because if you're going to control global trade, you need to control the Suez Canal.
00:54:53
Speaker
Like all the oil tankers are finding out right now that shit's important.
00:54:57
Speaker
And Eisenhower took some of our naval assets, brought to the same place and said, if you do this, we're going to file on you instead.
00:55:08
Speaker
And Britain got bitched up on the world stage.
00:55:12
Speaker
And then the government of Britain started subsidizing heavily, the Israeli project.
00:55:18
Speaker
Even though, yes, some British troops got blown off by some Israeli terrorists,
00:55:28
Speaker
canal.
00:55:29
Speaker
You can see the results of it being busy with Palestine and not able to do its job in the canal in the last three weeks.
00:55:40
Speaker
With the Houthis.
00:55:41
Speaker
Yes.
00:55:42
Speaker
So yeah, now Matt, how is Europe, if it's bankrupt, going to go start a war?
00:55:46
Speaker
It can't even pay for itself to exist.
00:55:48
Speaker
It needs America now more than ever.
00:55:52
Speaker
If the U.S. pulls out of NATO, how is Europe, because you
00:56:02
Speaker
had to pay for its own defense.
00:56:04
Speaker
It's got to take the money that we poured into defense and they've got to pour it.
00:56:08
Speaker
They got to pour it into social programs and fucking side ops for Americans and all bunch of dumb shit.
00:56:15
Speaker
How are they going to rearm themselves if they are in charge of their own defense?
00:56:19
Speaker
Now, what happens if they pull out of NATO or we love NATO?
00:56:23
Speaker
How are they going to do this?
00:56:24
Speaker
If they're bankrupt, they can't.
00:56:27
Speaker
So they started a fight with Russia.
00:56:30
Speaker
hoping that the U.S. would go finish it like all the other times.
00:56:33
Speaker
And you can see how crazy the rhetoric is.
00:56:35
Speaker
Joe Biden has to clamp down on all the fucking Ukraine shit because of how unpopular it is.
00:56:40
Speaker
But you have watched the Europeans go fucking nuts.
00:56:44
Speaker
Like actually start showing their true colors and how much they actually want this war.
00:56:48
Speaker
But the U.K.
00:56:49
Speaker
just put out that it's going to start drafting women.
00:56:52
Speaker
Well, what do you think that we, you know, as individuals here, like what... They can't allow Donald Trump.
00:56:59
Speaker
into office and Jamie Dimon saying that, you know, the U.S. should pull out of NATO.
00:57:04
Speaker
One of the world's most powerful bankers that the U.S. should pull out of NATO.
00:57:08
Speaker
freaking out, the veterans out of things.
00:57:10
Speaker
Well, what's fascinating about that is this CNBC article that I'm seeing, not just his statement, but this headline, U.S. executives in Davos see a Trump victory in 2024 and no cause for concern.
00:57:24
Speaker
Both publicly and privately, U.S. executives said at Davos they weren't concerned if Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election.
00:57:31
Speaker
Banking leaders in particular expressed confidence that America will be okay if Trump returns to the White House.
00:57:36
Speaker
Several World Economic Forum attendees said non-American executives have privately expressed far more trepidation for victory than American leaders.
00:57:46
Speaker
So that makes a lot of sense.
00:57:47
Speaker
So you have the head of like what the head of MI6 said that the election of Donald Trump is the greatest threat to Europe.
00:57:55
Speaker
That's a funny fucking thing to say, isn't it?
00:57:57
Speaker
Yeah.
00:57:58
Speaker
Yeah.
00:57:59
Speaker
I tweeted yesterday that I think Europe should hate and fear the American president.
00:58:04
Speaker
I believe they should.
00:58:06
Speaker
You know, Benjamin Franklin used to tell a joke about, because he was like our diplomat for a while.
00:58:14
Speaker
I don't even gave everybody an American history lesson.
00:58:16
Speaker
But they used to say, he said when he went over to England and he would go to the loo,
00:58:26
Speaker
all of the English nobility had pictures of George Washington above their toilets.
00:58:33
Speaker
And he would be asked, why?
00:58:34
Speaker
And he goes, because nothing would make an Englishman shit faster than seeing George Washington.
00:58:40
Speaker
Those were the days, man.
00:58:41
Speaker
Well, so, I mean, we're unwinding $400 trillion with the derivatives, man.
00:58:47
Speaker
Like, the amount of economic turmoil that's going to happen
00:58:50
Speaker
is going to be insane.
00:58:52
Speaker
And you're not going to miss it.
00:58:54
Speaker
All right, cool, perfect.
00:58:56
Speaker
I wanted to get into what can we practically do with this information?
00:58:59
Speaker
How can we pivot our planning?
00:59:03
Speaker
And this goes to, because when we had you come and talk to the guys, we had like the first hour was sort of dedicated to
00:59:11
Speaker
you know, this very nitty gritty, like, how do I get an investor?
00:59:15
Speaker
How do I like, what kind of ideas should I be developing?
00:59:19
Speaker
And then the second hour was like, by the way, that whole world is about to burn down.
00:59:26
Speaker
And so like, so I wanted to see if you had a way to integrate those two perspectives and talk through like, well,
00:59:33
Speaker
what someone who's trying to build something right now.
00:59:38
Speaker
I really, I'm hoping that it's not just like, well, you know, everything's going to hell, nothing can be done about it.
00:59:44
Speaker
Like what can we actually do right now?
00:59:46
Speaker
No, the exact opposite.
00:59:48
Speaker
And all right, so I've been breaking down my advice when I'm asked this, I'm asked this quite a bit.
00:59:54
Speaker
It's two ways.
00:59:55
Speaker
There's some guys that are probably listening that have been stacking some capital to start their own thing.
00:59:59
Speaker
There's some other guys that are listening.
01:00:02
Speaker
that don't have any capital to stack.
01:00:04
Speaker
And I would, especially like with the amount of young guys in our thing, I've sat and I've thought about it a lot.
01:00:12
Speaker
Like, what do I tell those guys to do?
01:00:14
Speaker
Because I mean, you're in the same group chats I am in, right?
01:00:18
Speaker
Like, you know, you give out some investment advice or some financial advice or whatever.
01:00:24
Speaker
And some guy goes, well, yeah, I've got like $10,000 to my name and I can't even afford
01:00:30
Speaker
Like a place to live barely.
01:00:32
Speaker
Like, what am I supposed to do?
01:00:33
Speaker
Like, that's great.
01:00:34
Speaker
I should go invest in uranium, which you fucking should, by the way, if you're listening.
01:00:39
Speaker
I think I've been screaming about this since, what, I don't know, April.
01:00:46
Speaker
And, you know, since August, it's up 3x.
01:00:49
Speaker
It'll be up...
01:00:51
Speaker
It'll do 3x three more times by the time it's done next year.
01:00:56
Speaker
So do that if you can, if you're listening.
01:00:58
Speaker
I would say any of them should be fine.
01:01:01
Speaker
There's like three or four uranium energy companies.
01:01:05
Speaker
But particularly, depending on your jurisdiction, Sprott, Uranium Trust is what I'm doing.
01:01:11
Speaker
But yeah, outside of putting in energy companies or whatever, what am I supposed to do?
01:01:17
Speaker
This is not investment advice.
01:01:19
Speaker
You're not your friend.
01:01:21
Speaker
I'm not even your friend.
01:01:22
Speaker
Entertainment purposes only.
01:01:24
Speaker
Yeah.
01:01:25
Speaker
Entertainment purposes only.
01:01:26
Speaker
Yeah, I'm not even your friend.
01:01:27
Speaker
Turn this off.
01:01:28
Speaker
Go outside.
01:01:32
Speaker
So it's been something I've been thinking about a lot.
01:01:35
Speaker
Yeah.
01:01:36
Speaker
So if we're not doing that, what are we doing?
01:01:38
Speaker
So if you don't have the liquidity to make a big play on whatever commodities we think you're going to... Yeah, whether commodities, whether you're going to start a business or whatever.
01:01:50
Speaker
If you've got no money, you need to be apprenticing, right?
01:01:54
Speaker
Contrary to popular opinion, I think boomers are great.
01:01:58
Speaker
I do.
01:01:59
Speaker
I've gotten everywhere that I am because of them.
01:02:03
Speaker
In particular, boomers that have been, yes, they lived in better economic times and times that they ruined largely.
01:02:14
Speaker
I mean, actually, technically, the decks were stacked long before they even knew what's up and really the most propagandized generation in history.
01:02:22
Speaker
The other thing about that is like if you believe and they they had, I think, OK reason to believe that like their kids were definitely going to do better than them.
01:02:33
Speaker
Then I think that there is a point at which like they clearly believed that giving their kids the handouts was actually like spiritually corrosive.
01:02:45
Speaker
And so the idea of building generational wealth was like totally counterproductive in their minds.
01:02:52
Speaker
Like, why would I do that?
01:02:53
Speaker
Why would I hurt my kid in that way, in a way that also means I can't enjoy my wealth?
01:02:58
Speaker
And like, you know, you can argue that maybe that's like a really convenient thing to believe.
01:03:03
Speaker
But at the same time, like if I'm in that seat, I get where they're coming from.
01:03:07
Speaker
I can see empirically how the choices that they made and the directions they went in were harmful to
01:03:14
Speaker
But that's very different from me saying like, oh, this was a uniquely sinister
Generational Perspectives and Media Evolution
01:03:19
Speaker
or selfish or stupid group of people.
01:03:21
Speaker
I think they just, they faced some different incentives than we face.
01:03:27
Speaker
And I think it is impossible to overstate the extent to which they were not prepared for the propaganda machine.
01:03:37
Speaker
And even like people blame- They had no idea.
01:03:40
Speaker
people blame Trump for a lot of his like first term decisions.
01:03:45
Speaker
And this is maybe not, you know, I'm not exactly saying the same thing, but it kind of rhymes.
01:03:50
Speaker
Like I think about how much my political opinions have changed since 2016.
01:03:54
Speaker
And it's like, I'm not 75 years old.
01:03:58
Speaker
The idea that I would, you know, if I'm, if I'm him and I'm a, I'm a 75 year old guy, uh, and, and I'm having my sort of, uh,
01:04:08
Speaker
first contact with some of this stuff.
01:04:09
Speaker
I mean, I know he was, he was savvy in his business world before he knew some things, but like, um, every one of us has had to pivot so hard in the last, in the last years.
01:04:24
Speaker
And to say that Trump couldn't have like had his eyes opened and, and learn some things and, and, and do some things differently this round.
01:04:31
Speaker
I think is, it certainly would be unfair of me because here's my sad confession.
01:04:37
Speaker
I voted for McMullen in 2016.
01:04:39
Speaker
I don't even know who that was.
01:04:41
Speaker
He was the CIA Mormon guy.
01:04:45
Speaker
You know, so you can connect the dots as to why that happened, but it was unbelievably shameful.
01:04:51
Speaker
Now the CIA loves the Mormons, by the way.
01:04:55
Speaker
Well, I think they... They're reliable.
01:04:58
Speaker
They're not... So after the Jeffrey Epstein's of the fucking world and all the fucking crazy compliment operations that are being run all the time by the UK and the Chinese, or sorry, like the Europeans and the Chinese, a guy that doesn't even drink coffee, that's your fucking guy.
01:05:17
Speaker
Yeah, I think we're useful to them.
01:05:18
Speaker
I think it's... I think you're a woman.
01:05:20
Speaker
Yeah, yeah.
01:05:21
Speaker
Yeah, I am.
01:05:22
Speaker
That explains a lot.
01:05:23
Speaker
Yeah.
01:05:25
Speaker
No, no, no.
01:05:26
Speaker
So let's put it this way.
01:05:28
Speaker
I tell people that I'll probably move to Utah soon.
01:05:34
Speaker
And I always get, it's a solar cycle thing.
01:05:37
Speaker
It's not for any, you know, like real estate perspective purposes.
01:05:40
Speaker
And the answer I always hear is, oh, well, you want your kids, you know, your kids are going to be Mormon.
01:05:47
Speaker
And I say to them every time, like, okay, so what does that look like?
01:05:52
Speaker
Anybody will have a tight knit community.
01:05:56
Speaker
They'll have a place in society.
01:05:58
Speaker
They will have friends that are not drowning in degeneracies or substance abuse.
01:06:07
Speaker
If you're telling me that's the worst thing that could happen to them, I'll take it.
01:06:13
Speaker
I'm an investor.
01:06:15
Speaker
I like managing my risk.
01:06:17
Speaker
It's the same thing as homeschool, right?
01:06:18
Speaker
It's like when being normal was an okay thing to be, then you could be like, oh, you're going to be weird.
01:06:28
Speaker
Why would you want to be weird?
01:06:29
Speaker
And it's like, I need my kids to be weird.
01:06:32
Speaker
I need my kids to be abnormal because normal is suicide at this point.
01:06:37
Speaker
Well, this is another thing.
01:06:38
Speaker
There's people that give the boom.
01:06:47
Speaker
most propagandized, right, in the whole wide world.
01:06:51
Speaker
Yeah.
01:06:51
Speaker
And then people will say, oh, well, they should have known.
01:06:54
Speaker
Like, motherfucker, if I go through your Facebook feed or your Instagram feed or your whatever feed, I would probably see a picture of you with a fucking mask on or a picture of you with that one on with tons of people surrounding you with masks on.
01:07:12
Speaker
So don't fucking tell me that a whole generation of people can't be propagandized.
01:07:17
Speaker
And not in a period of like a month, like it took people to get snagged with COVID.
01:07:23
Speaker
These people only had one media outlet, the television, and nothing to tell them that it was a lie.
01:07:31
Speaker
Right?
01:07:31
Speaker
It was only after they started getting sloppy.
01:07:33
Speaker
Like, let's be realistic.
01:07:35
Speaker
Like when you make a VCR copy as a kid, nobody's going to get that fucking reference.
01:07:39
Speaker
Um,
01:07:40
Speaker
When you make a copy of a copy, it deteriorates in quality.
01:07:44
Speaker
And if you make a copy of that copy, exponentially deteriorates further.
01:07:48
Speaker
They used to be much better at this shit.
01:07:51
Speaker
It's only for that reason that we know that this existed.
01:07:54
Speaker
Because if they were as good at their job as they thought that they were, we wouldn't know any of this existed.
01:08:00
Speaker
So you can't blame the fucking boomers because they got propagandized.
01:08:03
Speaker
They thought their institutions had their best interests at heart.
01:08:08
Speaker
because they didn't have any reason like we do to believe otherwise.
01:08:12
Speaker
We got the reasons to believe otherwise, they didn't.
01:08:16
Speaker
And all of these institutions, even if they were self-involved, even if they were corrupt, they were playing with bumpers on.
01:08:22
Speaker
Like it was just, it was so, everything was so abundant.
01:08:27
Speaker
that like you could you could kind of pay out both sides of every argument and you like you could you could constantly compromise like there was nothing there were no constraints on the system and so like even if the institutions didn't have your best interests at heart the fact that everything was just kind of going okay it was so far right the empire only had to worry about its own citizenry and then globalization now the empire has to worry about the
01:09:00
Speaker
Before, all they had to do was just manage the expectations of the plebs, and that was easy to do.
01:09:06
Speaker
Right.
01:09:07
Speaker
And, you know, people have different thoughts about the Weinstein brothers, but Eric Weinstein had this really interesting point about- Just because somebody's an intelligence agent doesn't mean they can't say smart shit.
01:09:19
Speaker
God, that's the dumbest thing that I hate about her.
01:09:22
Speaker
Oh, this person is connected with this person.
01:09:25
Speaker
Yes.
01:09:25
Speaker
Does that make them a fucking moron?
01:09:27
Speaker
No?
01:09:28
Speaker
Okay, then occasionally they can say smart guy stuff.
01:09:31
Speaker
Yeah, so he said, the impression that I get from the Epstein story is that it was a pre-internet op that couldn't survive the internet.
01:09:44
Speaker
That basically, the stuff happened under circumstances where they expected nothing, they expected to be able to control the flows of information.
01:09:53
Speaker
They couldn't stuff child porn on your heart drive.
01:09:55
Speaker
And the rest and the, right.
01:09:58
Speaker
And the technology just got way ahead of them so quickly.
01:10:02
Speaker
And, and like, you know, people have talked about it occasionally, like, you know, if, if this conspiracy were so airtight and so big and so powerful, how did it ever get out?
01:10:12
Speaker
And it's like, I think it was just the tech.
01:10:14
Speaker
I think the tech got away from them.
01:10:16
Speaker
And, um,
01:10:17
Speaker
And yeah, so I mean, everybody should check out the work of Ryan Dawson.
01:10:21
Speaker
Anybody that tells you to check out the work of Whitney Webb, tell them that they're stupid and they should check out Ryan Dawson because that girl has stolen literally everything she has, including her nice lucrative book deal from Ryan Dawson, who up until six or seven months ago has been the most censored person on the really most censored person on the internet, not like what Nick Fuentes pretends to be.
01:10:42
Speaker
And he's talking about Epstein or what's he talking about?
01:10:44
Speaker
He was the guy that, he broke Epstein in 2006.
01:10:48
Speaker
Okay.
01:10:48
Speaker
Okay.
01:10:49
Speaker
Whitney stole all of his work.
01:10:51
Speaker
And what did Ryan get?
01:10:52
Speaker
Ryan got kicked off of all social media platforms and debanked entirely in the 2010s.
01:11:00
Speaker
Like all the stuff that we're dealing with happened to him first.
01:11:04
Speaker
Even in Japan, he can't even get a crypto account.
01:11:07
Speaker
His wife can't even get a Coinbase account.
01:11:11
Speaker
In Japan, none of the Japanese crypto exchanges will work for him either.
01:11:16
Speaker
None of the Japanese banks will work with him either.
01:11:19
Speaker
His kids are Japanese citizens.
01:11:21
Speaker
His wife's a Japanese citizen.
01:11:23
Speaker
He can get a Japanese bank.
01:11:24
Speaker
If Ryan Dawson wasn't 75% Native American and able to get
01:11:30
Speaker
a bank account on an Indian reservation, you'd never hear of him because he'd be fucking homeless on the street because he exposed Epstein when it was really not cool to, when he was still out and free doing shit.
01:11:43
Speaker
The guys who got canceled in that time period, you know, I mean, I got...
01:11:50
Speaker
I got doxxed.
01:11:51
Speaker
I got fired.
01:11:53
Speaker
Boo-hoo, right?
01:11:53
Speaker
But these guys... I had lots and lots of people who understood that the news was bullshit, and just because somebody says mean things about you on a website doesn't mean it's true.
01:12:08
Speaker
But a lot of these guys who got in the aughts and the teens...
01:12:16
Speaker
It was a really deep, uh, because their whole social world collapsed around them.
01:12:22
Speaker
Uh, because that, that, that propaganda apparatus had not degraded to the point that it has now.
01:12:30
Speaker
And, uh, yeah, really, really, really tough time.
01:12:33
Speaker
Okay.
01:12:33
Speaker
But we did, we were trying to go to, um, really bad at this, by the way.
01:12:39
Speaker
It's all good.
01:12:40
Speaker
We were trying to go to, what do we build?
01:12:42
Speaker
Uh, no, so the boomers, right?
01:12:44
Speaker
Yeah.
01:12:45
Speaker
I got to where I was because a whole bunch of kids that have very successful fathers don't give a shit about what their dad does.
01:12:58
Speaker
And I did give a shit.
01:13:00
Speaker
I wanted to hear those stories.
01:13:02
Speaker
I wanted to hear about the meetings.
01:13:04
Speaker
I wanted to hear about how the deals closed.
01:13:07
Speaker
And so very powerful guys who at home can't even get their kids to pay attention to them.
01:13:15
Speaker
Finally had someone to pass down these stories to, these relationships to, their network to, their Rolodex, their clients, right?
01:13:26
Speaker
A tremendous amount of non-material wealth is going to die with the boomers.
01:13:33
Speaker
And unfortunately, there is five times as many of them as there are of us.
01:13:38
Speaker
So we cannot hope to capture all of what's going to be lost.
01:13:45
Speaker
And the boomer hating is really dumb, at least unless you want to stay poor.
01:13:51
Speaker
It's really something that should be in the top of everybody's mind.
01:13:54
Speaker
So what I tell everyone that tells me, well, I don't have any money to start a business or I don't have any money to invest or whatever.
01:14:02
Speaker
I say, then you need to apprentice, right?
01:14:05
Speaker
Man, I... Right.
01:14:08
Speaker
Yes, apprentice like with an investor, apprentice, just apprentice with some... Go find a boomer.
01:14:13
Speaker
Yes, exactly.
01:14:15
Speaker
Find your neighborhood boomer.
01:14:17
Speaker
I try and tell anybody that'll listen.
01:14:21
Speaker
A good friend of mine, one of the guys that mentored me a great deal, was largely responsible for the person I am outside of my dad.
01:14:32
Speaker
He's a very high up person at JPMorgan Chase.
01:14:38
Speaker
And this is not why I'm a JPMorgan Chase fanboy.
01:14:41
Speaker
JPMorgan Chase is the biggest fanboy.
01:14:44
Speaker
Solomon is also another person you need to watch.
01:14:46
Speaker
For as important Jamie Dimon is, his other half is David Solomon, the CEO and chairman of Goldman Sachs.
01:14:54
Speaker
He, like Jamie Dimon, took all of his money that he made on Wall Street and bought Goldman Sachs stock with it.
01:15:00
Speaker
So he is in a very similar boat.
01:15:03
Speaker
He is not a manager.
01:15:04
Speaker
He is an owner.
01:15:06
Speaker
He has a vested interest.
01:15:07
Speaker
But this person worked at both places.
01:15:10
Speaker
But this person was in, his mother passed away.
01:15:14
Speaker
And he was in New York, upstate New York, taking care of the estate.
01:15:18
Speaker
And the very fancy refrigerator broke.
01:15:22
Speaker
And do you know how long it took him to get a repair guy?
01:15:27
Speaker
Nine months.
01:15:29
Speaker
Geez.
01:15:30
Speaker
Yeah.
01:15:31
Speaker
He had to fly back.
01:15:33
Speaker
Because I guess it was like purchasing another refrigerator and sticking it in.
01:15:36
Speaker
I guess it was like a custom thing.
01:15:37
Speaker
It was like a certain size, whatever.
01:15:40
Speaker
But this repair guy was telling him,
01:15:43
Speaker
He's like, I am booked out for over a year.
01:15:47
Speaker
And he's like, why aren't you expanding?
01:15:49
Speaker
And he said, I can't.
01:15:51
Speaker
He's like, I've tried.
01:15:53
Speaker
I've tried to get people to come work for me and nobody wants to.
01:15:59
Speaker
They all want internet jobs or email jobs, what we call them.
01:16:04
Speaker
Do you know how much this refrigerator repairman costs?
01:16:09
Speaker
He's an appliance repair guy.
01:16:11
Speaker
And in the age of deglobalization, something as dumb as appliance repair guy is going to be insanely important when we can't have disposable LG appliances anymore.
01:16:23
Speaker
And we're going to have to fix them when they break.
01:16:26
Speaker
which is what is going to happen.
01:16:27
Speaker
Same thing with cars.
01:16:29
Speaker
This refrigerator repair guy does all the fancy refrigerators in the entire state of New York.
01:16:36
Speaker
And it's just him.
01:16:38
Speaker
And he's in his late 60s.
01:16:40
Speaker
And he can't find a single young guy to work for him.
01:16:44
Speaker
And apprentice.
01:16:46
Speaker
So in the highly online discourse about should we all become plumbers, you are pro-plumber, I take it.
01:16:54
Speaker
If you have no resources, it's a question of resources.
01:16:57
Speaker
We self-categorize.
01:16:59
Speaker
Oh, I am not a person with this resources, so I have to self-categorize myself over here with the Blackpoe guys to just talk about how the world sucks.
01:17:07
Speaker
Right.
01:17:08
Speaker
And so if you want to, but you could ostensibly execute the same heuristic with a finance guy or an investor.
01:17:20
Speaker
Just go find the boomer who does what you want to do and see if you can learn from him.
01:17:26
Speaker
Because their kids don't give a shit.
01:17:27
Speaker
I guarantee you.
01:17:29
Speaker
Right?
01:17:30
Speaker
So I'm not going to say who this person is, but I love them to death.
01:17:34
Speaker
And he said, all my friends are boomers.
01:17:36
Speaker
Like all my IRL friends, I've got like three or four IRL friends my age.
01:17:40
Speaker
And the rest of them are all boomers.
01:17:42
Speaker
They're really cool boomers.
01:17:44
Speaker
They're still boomers.
01:17:45
Speaker
But I, the most successful options trader in the history of options.
01:17:52
Speaker
But this guy's kids, one of them is a crazed SSRI late, you know, girl who's an
01:18:05
Speaker
study the remaining two years in college.
01:18:09
Speaker
She wants to spend them in Europe and she hates his guts, right?
01:18:15
Speaker
Wants to use the credit card unlimited, but hates him.
01:18:18
Speaker
Literally told him if he moved to Florida, what she wants to do, that she would never, both of his son and his daughter, both said they'll never come see him in Florida because we're on the same business as the governor and he hates trans people.
01:18:32
Speaker
His son is truing out right now as we speak.
01:18:35
Speaker
This guy has got more money than God.
01:18:38
Speaker
He shares our beliefs.
01:18:39
Speaker
He's hyper-religious.
01:18:40
Speaker
I mean, he's the most Catholic guy I've ever fucked him.
01:18:43
Speaker
And his kids not only are turning into what's soon to be our enemy in the real world, but they hate him.
01:18:51
Speaker
And he did everything.
01:18:52
Speaker
I mean, he was the guy at all the fucking PTA meetings, all the fucking basketball games.
01:18:57
Speaker
He was super dead at the same time as being a super business guy.
01:19:01
Speaker
And when this guy dies, probably the most powerful Rolodex I've ever come across is going to go with him.
01:19:08
Speaker
Because his kids don't give a shit.
01:19:10
Speaker
This applies no matter where you're at, whether you want to be in the trades or whether you're on Wall Street.
01:19:18
Speaker
I wonder if there's a, like, it would be really interesting to study this problem.
01:19:22
Speaker
Like for me as somebody who, like my job is to connect people.
01:19:26
Speaker
It would be really interesting to study, like if I just had a sort of a list of mentor boomers and I could just match make them with any of our guys who were interested, like what would be the criteria?
01:19:43
Speaker
That would be a fascinating thing to me.
01:19:45
Speaker
That's a very interesting thought.
01:19:48
Speaker
These guys just want somebody to give a shit.
01:19:50
Speaker
That's all they want.
01:19:51
Speaker
Yeah, and I would want to make sure that they were like high-quality guys so that these guys would show up and be interested.
01:20:00
Speaker
So bottom line, we got to have our glove up for this.
01:20:03
Speaker
Not necessarily just the money, but for the knowledge transfer.
01:20:09
Speaker
It really doesn't.
01:20:11
Speaker
The things that would make me the most money, right?
01:20:15
Speaker
have been introductions.
01:20:18
Speaker
Sure.
01:20:19
Speaker
Sure.
01:20:19
Speaker
I guarantee you I can get more money out of somebody's Rolodex than I could out of their checkbook.
01:20:27
Speaker
And for the trades, for the trades, think about their client list.
01:20:30
Speaker
This guy's got business, this refrigerator guy has got business booked out literally years in advance, right?
01:20:37
Speaker
He services every single client worth having in the entire state of New York, one of the wealthiest states in the country.
01:20:44
Speaker
He's going to retire in three years.
01:20:47
Speaker
In three years, that business that in the world of deglobalization, which is where we're heading, everybody thought it was a crazy person three or four years ago, but yet here we
Future of Work and Skills
01:20:55
Speaker
are.
01:20:55
Speaker
That business is going to be insanely valuable, right?
01:20:58
Speaker
You can't just snap your finger and have Best Buy deliver you a cheap fucking gun of breaking your refrigerator.
01:21:05
Speaker
The end of disposable shit.
01:21:08
Speaker
And this is the thing about the whole trades,
01:21:14
Speaker
or whatever.
01:21:15
Speaker
This is the problem with political guys, right?
01:21:18
Speaker
Or philosophical guys, right?
01:21:20
Speaker
They're all fucking retards about the global macro.
01:21:24
Speaker
That goes for you too, Mr. Bronze Age pervert, right?
01:21:28
Speaker
The priors that you're basing that decision on are not necessarily going to be the priors in the environment you're going into, right?
01:21:38
Speaker
So making any value prediction
01:21:40
Speaker
on what would be more valuable, A or B, politically even, against the current conditions, which are metastable at best, is silly.
01:21:54
Speaker
It's one thing to be in the trades, and it's another thing to be in the trades.
01:22:05
Speaker
One of the most powerful people I've ever met,
01:22:09
Speaker
was an iron worker in Brooklyn because this guy was also the head of the Iron Workers Union.
01:22:17
Speaker
Right.
01:22:18
Speaker
They built all the skyscrapers in Manhattan.
01:22:20
Speaker
He could shut down any project or any building he wanted to.
01:22:26
Speaker
There is a tremendous, all of the unions are political powerhouses and you're dumb to think otherwise, especially in the globalization world where in-country manufacturing becomes the most important thing in the world.
01:22:39
Speaker
Power comes from what is most important.
01:22:41
Speaker
In a credentialism world that we live, which is not long for this world, credentials are more important.
01:22:47
Speaker
I was just talking to one of my guys who essentially...
01:22:52
Speaker
was pursuing a career in the deep state, so to speak.
01:22:57
Speaker
And smart guy, clearly could have done that, clearly could have risen through the ranks there, who quit, essentially got into construction management and real estate investing.
01:23:09
Speaker
And now he is attending the state level functions in his state, meeting with governors, meeting with representatives and
01:23:19
Speaker
to determine policy because real estate developers, it turns out are a huge deal, uh, politically.
01:23:25
Speaker
So yeah, this guy, uh, has like, there's no version of the world where this guy becomes, you know, sort of infiltrates the institutions.
01:23:35
Speaker
No, if those institutions even exist, they require budgets that are non-sustainable.
01:23:40
Speaker
He doesn't know what institution is going to continue to exist or not.
01:23:43
Speaker
We're going to see institution Holocaust.
01:23:45
Speaker
It's going to be great.
01:23:46
Speaker
And I want to, I want to, uh,
01:23:49
Speaker
get a little personal here.
01:23:50
Speaker
Like I actually in, in, in the last couple of days, I had this moment of real dread about, you know, the world is changing so much and I want to be able to equip my kids for it.
01:24:09
Speaker
And I have no idea how to do it.
01:24:12
Speaker
My kids are still young.
01:24:13
Speaker
There's a lot of time, but I,
01:24:16
Speaker
it's a question of like having no concept of like, you know, are we going to live in a world where, you know, they got to know how to use computers or they got to like, or it's, it's got to be this very like close to the metal, like engineering type stuff.
01:24:33
Speaker
Like, are there, are there sort of big money opportunities that are just all froth and completely useless and, and bubble's going to pop.
01:24:41
Speaker
And it's this real, you know, these are, these are, these are kids, you know,
01:24:45
Speaker
with names and faces and then, and they're very important to me.
01:24:48
Speaker
And it was this intense emotional experience, actually.
01:24:55
Speaker
Having, having no idea what I should tell them to do.
01:25:00
Speaker
And the, the thing that I landed on, which I, the reason I bring it up is because it's, it's very much rhymes with what you're saying.
01:25:07
Speaker
This is true from an evolutionary biology perspective.
01:25:11
Speaker
Like the meta-adaptation, the hyper-adaptation is intelligence and socialization.
01:25:23
Speaker
Like the thing that makes the, you know, the panther adaptive in his environment is like his coloring and his musculature and his, like, he's got these specific things that do not translate to any other environment.
01:25:38
Speaker
But humans' ability to hunt in packs and lie to each other and unite each other and convince each other of things is
01:25:52
Speaker
that is a meta adaptation that is adaptive in every scenario.
01:25:58
Speaker
And so it got me thinking like what I want my kids to have is number one, access to all the intelligent people that I can possibly accumulate.
01:26:11
Speaker
And number two, having my kids be bright,
01:26:15
Speaker
and engaged and engaging and ready to click into those systems and take advantage of the goodwill that I've built and to build more of it and to expand that empire.
01:26:29
Speaker
And I think what is coming, I don't think it's a situation where we're headed for a big period of volatility and then the volatility goes away.
01:26:39
Speaker
I think that... I agree with you.
01:26:42
Speaker
I think that the volatility will continue and our need to be meta-adaptive will continue.
01:26:49
Speaker
And therefore, I think we are going to return to systems predicated upon those basic adaptive traits of human judgment and human connection.
01:27:04
Speaker
Like it's the fact that...
01:27:06
Speaker
you know, the world is now so full of like listicles and chat GPT spam and like, you know, guys from Bangalore giving you an unintelligible explanation of how to do this or that on YouTube.
01:27:20
Speaker
Like in order to like the information's out there, right?
01:27:23
Speaker
To do whatever you want to do, right?
01:27:25
Speaker
We're in an infinite information glut, but still what people want when they want to figure out how to do some particular thing is they want to,
01:27:33
Speaker
a smart, well-intentioned patient mentor to sit with them and help them.
01:27:38
Speaker
And, and I think that that human judgment, the ability to form partnerships and the ability to consult with a, a broad and deep and well-disposed to you network of mentors is,
01:27:53
Speaker
I really think that is the adaptation and I'm not, this is not just like an exit pitch, but like the reason I'm doing exit is because I really think that this is the smart move.
01:28:02
Speaker
I really think this is where like the alpha is.
01:28:04
Speaker
I agree.
01:28:05
Speaker
I think the age of hyper specialization is going away.
01:28:10
Speaker
I really do.
01:28:11
Speaker
Right.
01:28:12
Speaker
Like the age, the, the only reason,
01:28:15
Speaker
we are as hyper specific as a, I don't want to say a nation because it really is a broad thing, isn't it?
01:28:26
Speaker
It's a lot of these jobs and a lot of these industries are not going to be here in the way that they are, right?
01:28:33
Speaker
We're going to see a return of kind of the jack of all trades.
01:28:39
Speaker
AI, I think is a huge bubble, right?
01:28:42
Speaker
Everybody thinks we're heading to general,
01:28:45
Speaker
AI and we're actually heading the opposite direction.
01:28:49
Speaker
We're heading into hyper specific AI.
01:28:53
Speaker
So the AI is going to be doing a lot of what
01:28:57
Speaker
hyper specific, I guess what I'm trying to get at is you can see it a lot in the sciences, right?
01:29:04
Speaker
And you can see it in a lot of big corporate org charts, but the sciences or just the university system period is just a really good analogy for it, right?
01:29:15
Speaker
In order for a person to have any type of niche in any of the sciences,
01:29:21
Speaker
They basically have to go and become an expert in this obscure part of whatever the macro science is.
01:29:28
Speaker
Am I correct?
01:29:29
Speaker
Yeah.
01:29:30
Speaker
Yeah.
01:29:30
Speaker
You have to really drill down to get anywhere interesting.
01:29:33
Speaker
Exactly.
01:29:33
Speaker
Or the only way that they can actually define themselves.
01:29:36
Speaker
Like, oh, I am special because I am the guy that discovered this tiny, tiny, tiny thing that doesn't matter.
01:29:41
Speaker
So we have an age of hyper-specificity, but that only works when all of the underlying structures are stable.
01:29:49
Speaker
We're not going to have those stable structures underneath.
01:29:54
Speaker
The only reason you get hyper-specificity is because the architecture of which that specificity exists on is already established.
01:30:01
Speaker
We're going to be restructuring that, and we're going to be doing it fast.
01:30:05
Speaker
So hyper-specificity isn't really valuable.
01:30:09
Speaker
going forward as much as general knowledge is.
01:30:13
Speaker
Like, if you look at like all of the great, basically look at all the people that made all the real discoveries, like the discoveries that really matter,
Innovation and the Role of AI
01:30:22
Speaker
right?
01:30:22
Speaker
Like from, and not just Newton, everybody points to Newton, right?
01:30:26
Speaker
But Einstein, you can go to Dirac, actually really anywhere that you point to in the sciences.
01:30:37
Speaker
before same in biology turing right one of the most successful things in biology as far as uh cell structure came from alan turing right saying i mean everyone is going to have to be benjamin franklin to succeed is what i'm failing to put in an eloquent fashion right is the more fields that you can be expert in or you don't have to be experts sorry the more fields that you have general knowledge in the more you actually get innovation
01:31:07
Speaker
Right.
01:31:07
Speaker
Like the real aha moments only happen when you're able to alter your paradigm around a specific thing.
01:31:17
Speaker
Right.
01:31:17
Speaker
And that can only happen when you're trying to give an example that it,
01:31:22
Speaker
can just explain it in one analogy.
01:31:25
Speaker
I hear what you're saying.
01:31:27
Speaker
You need serendipity.
01:31:28
Speaker
You need the spontaneous connections that occur between unlike things that you wouldn't expect to be, like you can't be aiming directly at the thing.
01:31:40
Speaker
This is why I'm a PhD and you do.
01:31:42
Speaker
That was very eloquently put, yes.
01:31:46
Speaker
That is why.
01:31:47
Speaker
Now imagine that in an entrepreneurial space or a business sense, who is the person that is most valuable going forward?
01:31:53
Speaker
The person that is hyper specific at this one type of knowledge or has a general understanding, a competency in many, many, many things, all of which matter a little bit.
01:32:04
Speaker
Well, and particularly if you have connectivity and access to compute and access to people, it's sort of like, you know, there's like a, oh, what's his name?
01:32:17
Speaker
The mythological guy hammering the steel rails and he's trying to beat the steel.
01:32:24
Speaker
John Henry, steel driver.
01:32:27
Speaker
I've never heard of this.
01:32:28
Speaker
Well, steel driver for the railroad and the railroad company brings in a steam drill.
01:32:35
Speaker
And famously, he said that I have heard this as a kid before that steam drill beat me down.
01:32:42
Speaker
I'll die with my hammer in my hand.
01:32:43
Speaker
And he was supposed to be really good at driving steel rails.
01:32:46
Speaker
And it's like you cannot compete with a robot.
01:32:49
Speaker
Like if you're competing with a robot, you're competing for slave wages.
01:32:52
Speaker
You're competing with a piece of property.
01:32:55
Speaker
And and and and something that doesn't sleep that that and I think what is happening is a lot of mechanistic cognitive tasks.
01:33:07
Speaker
So where being essentially a mechanistic component in a complex system that we didn't know how to actually mechanize, that there was value in that.
01:33:23
Speaker
And now it's becoming the case that creating those automations is
01:33:30
Speaker
even very, very sophisticated, like 110 IQ automations, is becoming, if not trivial, at least really accessible.
01:33:38
Speaker
And so, yeah, you can't be the person whose job it is to...
01:33:46
Speaker
know these narrow details about this specific discipline because that information is just too accessible.
01:33:50
Speaker
You have no moat anymore.
01:33:52
Speaker
And, uh, and so, yeah, it does become about this like creative basically just described why hyper specific AIs are going to be the future and not general ones.
01:34:02
Speaker
Right, because that's going to be their job.
01:34:03
Speaker
They're going to be the machine.
01:34:05
Speaker
Exactly.
01:34:06
Speaker
They are going to be like every other machine.
01:34:08
Speaker
First, we come up with a general technology, and then we refine it for specific instances.
01:34:13
Speaker
And then they become specific variations of the same technology, but different in and of themselves.
01:34:21
Speaker
We're going to get AI sport, um, material science for chemistry, for pharmacology.
01:34:29
Speaker
Right.
01:34:29
Speaker
Cause the more broad of a data set you train these things on, the more they hallucinate.
01:34:35
Speaker
Right.
01:34:35
Speaker
So think about it just like people.
01:34:37
Speaker
Now we, we value people that are highly specific in skillset doing mechanistic type cognitive work.
01:34:43
Speaker
Well, how are they going to be replaced by this big mega board brain AI or much smaller, much
01:34:54
Speaker
purpose, right?
01:34:56
Speaker
As above, so below, or as in the, as in the carbon, so in the silica.
01:35:07
Speaker
It's going to look a lot like it looks like now, but instead of people doing hyper-specific cognitive tasks, what is the, what is the lowest hanging fruit?
01:35:16
Speaker
to mechanize their cognitive tasks with hyper-specific silicon cognitive workers.
01:35:23
Speaker
We're going to get hyper-specific AI.
01:35:26
Speaker
What hyperspecific AI isn't going to be able to tell me to do, like think about how complex a supply chain is, right?
01:35:32
Speaker
A global supply chain, there are experts in each little part of the manufacturing process.
01:35:39
Speaker
I'm the guy that knows how to do this with, and I'm like, I'm trying to think of an example, like lithium, for instance.
01:35:48
Speaker
Right.
01:35:49
Speaker
Lithium refining takes what four or five different, I think it's four different continents and five different, let me pull it up.
01:36:00
Speaker
I forgot like the entire time I'm searching for stuff in my head and I'm literally sitting in front of my fucking computer like a retard.
01:36:09
Speaker
Here we go.
01:36:10
Speaker
Yeah, the lithium supply chain because it gets it's actually very interesting.
01:36:16
Speaker
And it's a really good analogy for all the other supply chains.
01:36:22
Speaker
And it's really, really useful because everything in our world is like this, right?
01:36:31
Speaker
Whether it's your computer, whether it's the stuff in your fridge,
01:36:36
Speaker
I go to the grocery store and I have apples from Argentina, oranges from Peru or Africa, and I have lemons and limes from Mexico.
01:36:53
Speaker
That doesn't make any sense.
01:36:56
Speaker
And that's going to go away.
01:36:57
Speaker
So having all the lime knowledge in Mexico and having all of the apple knowledge in Argentina and the orange knowledge in Africa, that doesn't help you when you don't have globalization, but have to fill up a grocery store's produce aisle.
01:37:15
Speaker
You need all of the fruits knowledge in one place.
01:37:19
Speaker
That's the thing that we're going to be facing.
01:37:22
Speaker
Right.
01:37:23
Speaker
So having a general knowledge across the entire processes of the supply chain, which in some cases like a computer or your cell phone is hundreds of.
01:37:35
Speaker
of steps long, hundreds of individual companies handling one component.
01:37:41
Speaker
Not a single person in that entire organization knows where all those different components are made, let alone how they are made.
01:37:50
Speaker
Right.
01:37:51
Speaker
So you need general knowledge is where the human cognitive.
01:37:55
Speaker
Yeah.
01:37:56
Speaker
So there's mining.
01:37:58
Speaker
for one lithium battery you need a cobalt mine and that has its own chemical refining supply chain right right a nickel mine a graphica mine and a lithium mine right the lithium goes to one country
01:38:17
Speaker
to one specific plant to be refined.
01:38:20
Speaker
The cobalt goes to another country and another completely different chemical refining facility because it has a completely different refining process.
01:38:32
Speaker
And same thing with the nickel, right?
01:38:34
Speaker
And then you get these refined nickel foams and refined cobalt soups and refined lithium.
01:38:43
Speaker
I can't remember what it looks like.
01:38:45
Speaker
I think it's also a foam, but it's a different foam, right?
01:38:48
Speaker
Then they have to go to the cathode and anode production facilities.
01:38:54
Speaker
They each go into separate places and they slowly get put into less and less and less components.
01:38:59
Speaker
Then from the cathode nano production facilities, then it goes to the lithium ion battery cell manufacturing place, which each time it is on container ships full of its own thing traveling across the world.
01:39:14
Speaker
right the chemical production i believe is in india the mining is in africa the cathode and anode is in china and the lithium ion finished battery cell is done by panasonic in japan and then it goes to either europe or the us that's just for a battery all those facilities need to be in the same place and that means all of the knowledge that is hived off in each one of those facilities needs to be in the same place
01:39:44
Speaker
general, you need novices and a novice in 100 things is going to be more valuable than an expert in one thing.
01:39:53
Speaker
A novice in 10 things.
01:39:55
Speaker
There's a tick on our side of the political spectrum that I think is just a hold.
01:40:01
Speaker
Well, it's just a holdover from conservatism, sort of the conservative temperament, which basically always assumes that technological advance will be dystopian and that it will lead us to greater atomization and greater dehumanization and
01:40:17
Speaker
I'm looking at I'm looking at the way I'm able to be closer to my my kids because I work out of my house.
01:40:24
Speaker
I'm looking at the fact that, you know, things things like exit are able to connect me with people on a much deeper level than I than I would be able to do otherwise.
01:40:35
Speaker
I'm looking at the fact that, like you're saying, the value of genuine human intelligence is not going to go down in the face of A.I.
01:40:44
Speaker
It's going to go up.
01:40:46
Speaker
Like there and, and, and crypto, the fact that crypto and, and 3d printing that these are empowering.
01:40:52
Speaker
I mean, I mean, uh, 3d printing has armed revolutionaries in Myanmar.
01:40:57
Speaker
Like there's, there's a, there's a real like on the ground shit going on with the 3d printing space very closely.
01:41:05
Speaker
I think it's a magical, magical place where real, just in firearms, you've seen more innovation come out of a whole bunch of kids spread across the country.
01:41:14
Speaker
in their pajamas with 3D printers than I've seen in the entire firearms industry in the last 20 years.
01:41:19
Speaker
Innovation happens with small manufacturers, my friend.
01:41:23
Speaker
We're going to see more innovation as this breaks down because, well, actually real quick, this is actually really important for the people that already own small businesses, right?
01:41:32
Speaker
Let's say you already got your thing set up.
01:41:35
Speaker
This is a good segue.
01:41:38
Speaker
So if you already have a business in the next three years, your job is not to expand.
01:41:45
Speaker
It's not to grow.
01:41:46
Speaker
It's to survive.
01:41:47
Speaker
Right.
01:41:47
Speaker
Yeah.
01:41:48
Speaker
One out of every 10 businesses, small businesses, right.
01:41:51
Speaker
One out of every 10 businesses that get started will die.
01:41:54
Speaker
Right.
01:41:56
Speaker
And.
01:41:57
Speaker
Well, that's in general.
01:41:58
Speaker
That's in general.
01:41:59
Speaker
I'm sure it's worse right now.
01:42:00
Speaker
Exactly.
01:42:01
Speaker
It's going to get much worse.
01:42:03
Speaker
Right.
01:42:03
Speaker
So all you need to do is survive a couple of years.
01:42:07
Speaker
And what, you know, what lives on the other side of that is going to be the greenest pastures you've ever, like you're not going to see the green in the rest of your lifetime and possibly your kid's lifetime.
01:42:22
Speaker
Right.
01:42:23
Speaker
Because you have two things happening at the same time.
01:42:26
Speaker
Right.
01:42:26
Speaker
A major economic restructuring and a major supply chain restructuring.
01:42:31
Speaker
We've never seen those two things happen at the same time before.
01:42:34
Speaker
We've seen them disrupted at the same time, but never put never reoriented at the exact same time before.
01:42:40
Speaker
So as all of these big businesses.
01:42:43
Speaker
Right.
01:42:43
Speaker
Like it's a lot easier for.
01:42:46
Speaker
a small business to change the way it produces and where it produces because it's small and it's nimble.
01:42:53
Speaker
Trying to get Apple to do that will take years, years and years.
01:42:58
Speaker
And some of them say decades, but that's not going to stop people from needing the thing, is it?
01:43:02
Speaker
They still need to go and buy the thing and use it.
01:43:05
Speaker
So where are they going to get it?
01:43:06
Speaker
You're going to see small manufacturers, mom and pop shops, small lumber mills, small, there's actually even small refining businesses.
01:43:18
Speaker
They're called teapots.
01:43:21
Speaker
small engineering and machining businesses, right?
01:43:25
Speaker
These are small pipe making businesses, cable and wire making businesses.
01:43:30
Speaker
There are a few of these left.
01:43:32
Speaker
And for all those entrepreneurial types, there is a lot of facilities that exist for this type of manufacturing that went defunct in the last five to 10 years.
01:43:44
Speaker
And I didn't know how long or what the process
01:43:52
Speaker
like say, like, not like restoring a house, but restoring a factory.
01:43:56
Speaker
Until that podcaster, Jocko Wilnick, whatever his name is, he gave me a perfect case study because he wanted to make his own, I can't remember what it was.
01:44:05
Speaker
I think it was like outdoorsy type clothing.
01:44:08
Speaker
And he wanted to have all the materials and the production done in the U.S. And everybody told him it was impossible.
01:44:17
Speaker
So for a very, very small amount of money, literally less than a million dollars, substantially less than a million dollars,
01:44:25
Speaker
He bought a textile mill in Pennsylvania and got it producing again for less than a million dollars.
01:44:33
Speaker
So he now owns his own textile plant just to make his own shit right now.
01:44:39
Speaker
When we don't have textile plants in Indonesia to spin up whenever we want and ship us hundreds of millions of t-shirts for other people to put logos and shit on, a textile plant becomes extremely valuable.
01:44:52
Speaker
These facilities exist and they're not that destroyed.
01:44:56
Speaker
The machines are so heavy, a majority of them are still there.
01:45:01
Speaker
So if you know that globalization is ending and we are onshore in manufacturing,
01:45:07
Speaker
you know, years before anybody else does and about five or six years before any of the major corporations can do anything about it.
01:45:14
Speaker
That's the thing.
01:45:15
Speaker
Another thing that's, I sort of discovered this as a consequence of the NATO conference and talking about demographic collapse and also some of my experience in defense talking about how or learning about how systems are incentivized to talk about catastrophe.
01:45:33
Speaker
Go into that.
01:45:34
Speaker
I have never heard this before.
Restructuring Manufacturing and Supply Chains
01:45:36
Speaker
Well, okay, so when I was at a defense contractor, I was in strategy.
01:45:42
Speaker
And so we would talk about, like in real nitty gritty detail, about, we would talk about like the artificial airstrips and the, you know, how many birds can you get in the air before they get shot down?
01:45:56
Speaker
And, you know, flying low under the radar and like, what are the radars like?
01:46:00
Speaker
What are the missile batteries like?
01:46:02
Speaker
But nobody would ever talk about nuclear exchange.
01:46:05
Speaker
And that was baffling to me.
01:46:06
Speaker
And I was like, why the hell?
01:46:08
Speaker
Like, that is the only question, right?
01:46:11
Speaker
Like, none of this matters.
01:46:12
Speaker
None of this matters if the war takes eight hours and then it's over.
01:46:17
Speaker
Which inevitably it will because the threat escalation ladder moves that quickly.
01:46:21
Speaker
Yeah.
01:46:22
Speaker
And so, and so I was thinking about that.
01:46:25
Speaker
And then I encountered Malcolm and Simone Collins and they were talking about how they would go to Korea and they would ask the Koreans.
01:46:34
Speaker
And these are like investment banks.
01:46:35
Speaker
These are like people whose job it is to like keep their fingers on the pulse of what's going on.
01:46:39
Speaker
And they'd be like, well, why, you know, what's your plan to deal with demographic decline?
01:46:45
Speaker
Because the Korea, like Korea is going to like not exist in a hundred years.
01:46:48
Speaker
There won't be any Koreans.
01:46:50
Speaker
Yeah.
01:46:51
Speaker
And they would basically say like, oh, we just don't talk about that.
01:46:54
Speaker
And it's like, how do you not talk about that?
01:46:57
Speaker
And the principle that I realized that connects those situations is that if the institution that you are a part of, if the catastrophe is so deep that there's no story you can tell in which that institution still exists,
01:47:16
Speaker
on the other side of that catastrophe, then there is no way for internal constituencies within that institution to make bets.
01:47:25
Speaker
They can't make bets on nuclear war.
01:47:28
Speaker
They can't make bets on demographic collapse because the whole game will not exist if that happens.
01:47:34
Speaker
And so it's like there's a project, there's a product manager for the radars.
01:47:38
Speaker
There's a product manager for the satellites.
01:47:40
Speaker
There's a product manager for the jets and the ships and the rockets.
01:47:44
Speaker
There is no product manager for nuclear war because if there's nuclear war, all bets are off.
01:47:50
Speaker
Everything's tits up.
01:47:51
Speaker
And so and so essentially what what I see is the advantage.
01:47:57
Speaker
Well, OK, but think about this.
01:47:59
Speaker
But think about this.
01:48:01
Speaker
If you're trying to beat the market, like if you go to an economist, you shouldn't do that.
01:48:08
Speaker
But if you go to an economist and you say, I think I have a strategy to beat the market, what he's going to tell you is that these banks have supercomputers that are using AI to read the news and they're making like millions of transactions every hundredth of a second and there's no way that you're going to...
01:48:27
Speaker
analyze and parse and move faster than they can.
01:48:30
Speaker
But this is a unique situation where those institutions are not incentivized to price in what needs to happen, which means that you have, that's not a doomsday scenario, that's free money.
01:48:46
Speaker
And I think demographic decline is absolutely one of those things where there is money lying around because the institutions as they currently exist
01:48:55
Speaker
have no internal mechanism for people who are right about that to make money.
01:49:00
Speaker
That's a good point.
01:49:01
Speaker
That lets me know what our coronal mass ejection plan is, which is the sun having a hiccup.
01:49:08
Speaker
I know that the plan is zero.
01:49:09
Speaker
Right.
01:49:10
Speaker
There can't be a plan.
01:49:11
Speaker
Nobody can make the plan.
01:49:12
Speaker
Yeah.
01:49:13
Speaker
Let's shift into demographics because I think that's the next thing, the last thing.
01:49:17
Speaker
It's another white pill.
01:49:19
Speaker
Yeah.
01:49:20
Speaker
It's like a black pill, but it's not...
01:49:22
Speaker
No, not if you can figure it out.
01:49:24
Speaker
Like not if you and yours can figure it out, right?
01:49:29
Speaker
There's all kinds of possibility, all kinds of opportunity opening up.
01:49:33
Speaker
And what will be scarce is not capital.
01:49:37
Speaker
It's not...
01:49:40
Speaker
you know, physical resources of any kind.
01:49:43
Speaker
It's sort of.
01:49:44
Speaker
Yes, capital will be looking for places to go.
01:49:47
Speaker
Again, this is another thing.
01:49:49
Speaker
Exactly.
01:49:50
Speaker
Investors in a couple of years looks a hell of a lot brighter.
01:49:53
Speaker
Right.
01:49:55
Speaker
And what will be expensive and rare is high quality human intelligence and human network.
01:50:09
Speaker
Like, again, these institutions predicated on human... I mean, that's the bet that I'm making with everything I'm doing.
01:50:16
Speaker
It's like, it's not in... And I've got a friend of mine
01:50:20
Speaker
who essentially is like, and he's coming into some money and he's like, what am I going to, am I going to put it in?
01:50:28
Speaker
Am I going to put it in the stock market?
01:50:29
Speaker
Am I going to put it in a mattress under my bed?
01:50:31
Speaker
Am I going to put, you know, like what is the long-term bet that makes sense here?
01:50:36
Speaker
What asset is going to do well?
01:50:38
Speaker
And, and he, he basically, I know, I know you have a take on, on T-bills, but he's like, there's no, there's nothing I want to put my money in right now, except, um,
01:50:49
Speaker
people.
01:50:50
Speaker
He's like, I want, I want, and, and he's, he's actually sort of devised that what he wants to do is build a place for the smart people that he knows to have the creative ferment, both in like the, the sort of explicitly creative artistic domain, but also in the professional domain.
01:51:09
Speaker
And, and, you know, for our, for our, our wives to run into each other on the way to the grocery store and, and accomplish the,
01:51:15
Speaker
great things together because that's the way that he can think of to invest in human capital.
01:51:24
Speaker
It's not credentials.
01:51:25
Speaker
It's not, you know, like it's, it's creating opportunities for highly generally intelligent people to experience the kind of abstract serendipity, the, the, um,
01:51:39
Speaker
the explosion of genius, right?
01:51:42
Speaker
That's, that's where the alpha is.
01:51:45
Speaker
And they're like, that's a risky bet.
01:51:47
Speaker
But again, it's like compared to what?
01:51:49
Speaker
Like, it depends upon where and how he does it.
01:51:53
Speaker
If he's doing it in sciences and technical fields, a lot of, so I had a similar idea a while back, but it would take some startup capital, right?
01:52:06
Speaker
More than
01:52:07
Speaker
Probably more than I'm myself willing to put.
01:52:10
Speaker
So there is a tremendous amount of knowledge in our academic institutions that is terrified to present itself at all, or fear of getting squished.
01:52:21
Speaker
Because it's really like the tallest nail in all cases.
01:52:27
Speaker
So not just the people that say things like opinions like ours,
01:52:34
Speaker
But it's really kind of an overall war on excellence.
01:52:38
Speaker
So if I just gave people a safe place to do research and a paycheck that came with it, I could pretty much get most of the top talent at a lot of these universities because all these guys want to do is do research.
01:52:57
Speaker
and be left alone to do research and not have to worry about their tenure being stripped and their lives financially ruined.
01:53:06
Speaker
So it makes me think a lot of Bell Labs and Xerox Labs.
01:53:11
Speaker
I don't know if you're familiar.
01:53:13
Speaker
A little, but go ahead.
01:53:14
Speaker
Okay.
01:53:14
Speaker
Well, a lot of the technologies we know as the modern computer
01:53:21
Speaker
from graphics interfaces to mouses to really all of it.
01:53:26
Speaker
And basically the same type of all encompassing stack of technologies or intellectual properties came out of Bell Labs, but for everything, you know, radio and satellite.
01:53:37
Speaker
Like the reason that we have control over the electromagnetic spectrum is the ability that we can tell is from these guys.
01:53:43
Speaker
And all Bell Telephone did and all Xerox Lab did was built a little campus, right, a little community
01:53:51
Speaker
and filled it full of the smartest guys in their field and let them Xerox labs was in like the sixties and bell labs was in like the forties all the way on, I think till the seventies.
01:54:03
Speaker
But during the sixties, the spirit of like, let them have fun really kind of went further than in bell labs in fifties.
01:54:11
Speaker
So like the guys at Xerox labs literally played giant games, had big bouncy balls and like literally just a bunch of children all day.
01:54:19
Speaker
But out of that,
01:54:21
Speaker
And a bunch of whiteboards everywhere.
01:54:23
Speaker
Out of that came more intellectual property for the computer world than anywhere else before.
01:54:29
Speaker
This is why all the inventors, guys like Benjamin Franklin, guys like Isaac Newton, guys like Turing, guys like Copernicus,
01:54:46
Speaker
You go to the, all of the great inventors and discoverers of things that are still valid and that we use today all the time.
Innovation Environments and Historical Context
01:54:52
Speaker
Right.
01:54:52
Speaker
You will find that they were, their interests were not in just their, they were not knowledgeable on one specific thing.
01:55:00
Speaker
These were all multi multifaceted men, right?
01:55:03
Speaker
They all knew physics.
01:55:06
Speaker
They all knew bits of chemistry.
01:55:08
Speaker
They all knew bits of mathematics.
01:55:11
Speaker
They all knew a lot of them.
01:55:12
Speaker
very, very, very into music.
01:55:15
Speaker
Most of them compose their own music.
01:55:17
Speaker
There seems to be a huge overlap there.
01:55:19
Speaker
I don't know why.
01:55:20
Speaker
I don't make the rules.
01:55:22
Speaker
Well, I think there's a craving for a craving to create order and a craving to create harmony.
01:55:32
Speaker
I think that music definitely appeals to that kind of systematizing intelligence.
01:55:40
Speaker
I agree 100%.
01:55:41
Speaker
So when you're asked
01:55:48
Speaker
Like what we're doing in sciences, right?
01:55:51
Speaker
Hiving these people off into their own specific thing and forcing them to get hyper specific.
01:55:55
Speaker
That is mechanical thinking, right?
01:55:58
Speaker
That is mechanical.
01:55:59
Speaker
It is a mechanical way of doing biological cognitive computing, right?
01:56:05
Speaker
It, that doesn't hyper specificity.
01:56:07
Speaker
Doesn't our brains aren't wired to it, right?
01:56:10
Speaker
This is not where innovation comes from.
01:56:12
Speaker
It's not where inspiration comes from.
01:56:13
Speaker
In fact, I don't even believe inspiration comes from you.
01:56:17
Speaker
the person, like your physical body.
01:56:19
Speaker
In fact, a lot of the people that describe it, you can, I mean, you can read, if you read Einstein, this stuff doesn't translate into textbooks, but if you read Einstein in his own words, you read, what's his name?
01:56:33
Speaker
Feynman in his own words.
01:56:35
Speaker
You seriously go back to somebody who's made a huge breakthrough and either get ahold of their journals or get ahold of any of their interviews about
01:56:47
Speaker
Tesla the exact same way.
01:56:49
Speaker
They will all tell you, right, that they were either laying down or sleeping, right?
01:56:55
Speaker
So either basically in a resting state and it hit them like a bolt of lightning, a laser beam into the brain or an explosion.
01:57:04
Speaker
They all describe it as coming from elsewhere.
01:57:08
Speaker
say what that is, but I'm going to listen.
01:57:11
Speaker
If I, if I'm supposed to listen to everything else that Einstein wrote about physics, and I'm not supposed to listen to how the man is telling me he came about the inspiration or the innovation, I'm supposed to listen to everything Tesla told me about how
01:57:29
Speaker
He's able to manipulate the electromagnetic field, but I'm not supposed to listen to how he said this idea entered his head.
01:57:36
Speaker
So it's all factual.
01:57:37
Speaker
We're going to be taken 100% seriously, except for when they're describing how the innovation came to them.
01:57:44
Speaker
That's obviously just an allegory.
01:57:46
Speaker
Actually, Jordan Peterson talked about on a recent podcast, he was talking about...
01:57:57
Speaker
the force of inspiration and the connection between science and spirituality and that effectively by forcing yourself to only admit the set of facts that is tractable to materialist analysis,
01:58:19
Speaker
you have no method of orienting yourself with respect to the facts that you observe.
01:58:25
Speaker
So like basically, and this is like stuff that's not, this is not like religious stuff.
01:58:31
Speaker
This is like Foucault would say this essentially.
01:58:34
Speaker
When Foucault said there's nothing outside the text, what he was saying that was true is that like there's nothing inside the sort of set of facts that tells you how to interpret those facts, that tells you what they actually mean.
01:58:49
Speaker
And essentially what we've tried to do with empiricism and materialism, and I think it's essentially political.
01:58:56
Speaker
It's essentially just that materialism and empiricism provides a framework for a certain type of collaboration and cooperation that
01:59:11
Speaker
it's, it's sets broad terms for a particular type of debate.
01:59:15
Speaker
And so it's convenient, but it doesn't, but it doesn't provide, uh, ground truth and it doesn't provide a way to orient yourself with respect to the truth that you learn.
01:59:26
Speaker
And so therefore, uh,
01:59:29
Speaker
It is impossible to do science under those circumstances.
01:59:35
Speaker
It's possible to do certain types of research.
01:59:38
Speaker
It's possible to sort of go through the motions and paint by the new things.
01:59:43
Speaker
Why can't companies and countries innovate?
01:59:45
Speaker
Exactly.
01:59:46
Speaker
Exactly.
01:59:47
Speaker
It's because there is no consciousness of how to orient the facts.
01:59:54
Speaker
So here's something I tell a lot of people when they ask me about tech and I say like,
02:00:01
Speaker
anymore.
02:00:02
Speaker
Yeah.
02:00:03
Speaker
And ask why?
02:00:04
Speaker
Because software is a great business, right?
02:00:06
Speaker
I literally have to code one thing, something once.
02:00:09
Speaker
And then I get to sell that thing a trillion times without ever having to make another thing.
02:00:14
Speaker
Right?
02:00:14
Speaker
You make it once, sell it infinity times.
02:00:17
Speaker
It's a great business model.
02:00:19
Speaker
But I'm not interested in bits anymore.
02:00:22
Speaker
Because if I were to, and I tell this to, again, everybody that will listen, if I were to take away the screens in your life, right, your phone,
02:00:31
Speaker
your laptop, your monitor, all the screens.
02:00:35
Speaker
What around you in your immediate vicinity, your home or your office, whatever, what is there to convince you that you're not living in 1970?
02:00:43
Speaker
Just remove the screens.
02:00:46
Speaker
What do you see that can tell you that you're not in 1970?
02:00:49
Speaker
Nothing.
02:00:49
Speaker
And it's because outside of those screens, you are living in 1970.
02:00:54
Speaker
You just didn't know.
02:00:55
Speaker
The only progress has happened inside those screens.
02:00:59
Speaker
Well, you're going to say there's nothing inside the screen.
02:01:01
Speaker
It's just a screen.
02:01:02
Speaker
Exactly.
02:01:04
Speaker
I hope all of your podcasts go the exact opposite places you were expecting.
02:01:07
Speaker
Because that way I'll feel less guilty about going the exact opposite places we were supposed to go.
02:01:14
Speaker
No, I mean, I think it would have been duplicative to go the same exact places.
02:01:18
Speaker
This has been a great conversation.
02:01:19
Speaker
I really appreciate you coming on.
02:01:20
Speaker
And so are we connecting you to Norman Dodd New?
02:01:26
Speaker
Yeah, that's fine.
02:01:28
Speaker
Okay, so yeah, Norman.new on Twitter.
02:01:30
Speaker
Just type in Stormy Waters.
02:01:32
Speaker
I'm the only one that's verified.
02:01:34
Speaker
Got it, Stormy Waters on Twitter.
02:01:36
Speaker
Hey, thanks so much for being here, man.