Transcript
Speaker: They've become a staple of our podcast admit, let's not dance around the bush anymore. Let's get right into it. 10 seconds into the podcast. What do the 538 probabilities say for the World Cup final between Argentina and France? The people want to know.
Speaker: You read my mind, Austin. We had not talked about this beforehand. I wanted to start with this as the launching point of this podcast. Argentina, 53%, France, 47%. The reason why I wanted to start is I think we should talk about why Argentina is favored in 538's model because
Speaker: Most people watching would say that France perhaps is better. The pre -tournament expectation was definitely that France was better. And I think there's a case here, but doesn't that feel a little weird?
Speaker: It's also interesting because the traditional betting markets, which I also had a glance at for educational purposes only ahead of this game, as if I would be crazy enough to put actual money on anything related to this game. I'm already emotionally attached here. Dead even for the betting markets here in Argentina. Pays exactly the same for France or Argentina to come out champion. That would be 50 % on the 538 model.
Speaker: So what is it that 538 model makes Argentina 3 % more of a favorite than what the betting markets think? Do you have an answer for me?
Speaker: I do, and I think the answer is Argentina's defense grades slightly better according to their SPI, their algorithm that they use. They assign a number to offensive defense. France's offense rates better by two decimal points higher than Argentina's, but one worse, which doesn't make sense. So I've come to the conclusion that
Speaker: The only explanation between two very, very balanced squads is the vibes after dark stuff. This is our thesis from the start of this podcast. We both picked Argentina to win. We both probably could have said that Argentina France final was on the cards and here we are. And do we think this is fair?
Speaker: There's a shrug of the shoulders there. This is the World Cup After Dark podcast. We're here to break down exactly that 3 % that Amit attributes to the vibes, to the After Darkness of Argentina. Do we have the full 538 formula? Can you quantify how much the vibes play in there and who is responsible for factoring those in?
Speaker: Uh, you know, on the how it works section, I don't see vibes. It says combination of each team's recent match results and the overall quality of its world cup roster. So there you have it. Um, I think.
Speaker: If we're really going to take 538 at face value, we could start with them and then be done with them. This is our opinions, not theirs, their model. It's a good jumping off point, though. It's a great jumping off point. I think that Argentina's performance against Croatia was very good and was kind of fitting for them. We had said they had played generally well all tournament, played in high pressure situations all tournament, and then put together a good performance to their game script.
Speaker: France, even though they ended up comfortably on XG and in score line beating Morocco, Morocco gave them trouble for 80 minutes of that match. You know, put up seven XG down one, maybe unlucky. 0 .7 XG. 0 .7. That would be quite the match if you put up seven XG and scored zero goals. What does that match look like? Something like what Germany did at the group stage.
Speaker: When you're on the Germans, I love it. There we go. There we go. So the point is that maybe, you know, there's something to be said about France's defense being potentially leaky and Argentina perhaps having more talent than the models thought. And I think this goes back to our point that we we kind of tangentially veered off on is that Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez may be new to the top echelon of club soccer.
Speaker: actually are much better than the models could have known. Perhaps underrated going into the tournament and now are being properly rated. So I think, like we said, that's a very good jumping off point to attack this final. On today's show, we're going to preview the final. At the very end, we might touch quickly on what happened in third place game, which was just two teams out for a good fun time on a Saturday afternoon that Croatia won. Two -one. I'm glad you guys enjoyed it. Hope you had fun. Not enough Walei Janira for my personal taste.
Speaker: So, what it comes down to, and this is kind of the most basic thing to say, and this is the most basic way of attacking this match, it is fair to say that these teams are for the most part evenly matched. There may be advantages or disadvantages at certain points, but I think the common perception is that these two teams are relatively evenly matched.
Speaker: That means that this theoretically will come down to everything else. All of the little things, the moments, individual mistakes, individual refereeing decisions, changes, managerial approaches, tactics. This is not a match that we expect to be decided solely on talent. One team is not going to win this match because they are simply better than the other.
Speaker: It might happen. It could happen. But the most common thread in this match, the common perception, what we believe this match will come down to is a series of seemingly little things that turn into big things because it's the World Cup Final and because it's the biggest stage in World Football. I agree with you completely. That's a very good way to put it.
Speaker: And I think we've seen that over the course of this tournament is the deeper we've gotten in each round, the talent gaps have all kind of went away for the, for the most part. And the semifinal, we did see the two better teams win, but it wasn't necessarily because of an overwhelming talent advantage. It was the talent in the margins. It was the managerial decisions.
Speaker: And I think that's where we're at with these two teams, which makes it very exciting, as you said. And just to, you know, I think before this tournament, we both were concerned or thinking that Argentina was a notch below France on talent. And I think, as you said, we agree now.
Speaker: And the public agrees, the markets agree, that's not the case. So we don't need to go into that more. We're starting there. But I think very quickly on that, I think it is fair to say that France are the more talented team, period.
Speaker: But I also don't think it's fair to say that France are significantly more talented and it will play a massive role in this game. I think top to bottom player for player France have more talent in this game. But I think Argentina so far in this tournament have functioned better as a unit and that takes away from what little advantage France has on the pure talent gap.
Speaker: No, that's a good way to put it. I think that matters is that Argentina's, I think, cohesion and tactical approach has been slightly better than France's throughout this tournament. And I think that's because they are able to exert more control of the game through the midfield.
Speaker: particularly because of Fernandez, DePaul, McAllister, and then Paredes. Then France, they don't need control to be good because maybe of their talent advantage. That's, I think, why we're getting to this 50 -50 idea, is that even if France are marginally better, and I think I agree with you, and I think part of that reason perhaps is
Speaker: the outside backs, like outside of them, I'm not sure where else on this roster you're finding that gap. But that strength of Argentina's midfield is really leveling the playing field here. And when we get to talking about this game, I do think Argentina will control the midfield unless Deschamps makes a really reactive change in his whole approach to the game.
Speaker: So let's do that right now. Let's go into this. Do you want to go front to back or back to front? If we go front to back, it means we start with Messi and Mbappe. If we go back to front, it means we end with Messi and Mbappe. How do you do it? Let's go back to front. We'll save the two stars for the end. Let's go back to front. Let's start in goal.
Speaker: Deepu Martinez, Argentina, Hugo Louris for France. Not a ton of analysis here. I think for France, Hugo Louris hasn't had a moment of madness in this tournament. He has generally had a moment of madness in a major tournament. Could that be coming in the final? Let's see.
Speaker: Hopefully I'm not even throwing I'm just gonna throw out what I want to happen at this point. We've gotten to that point I'm on my wits end Argentina Diva Martinez has been good has given up more goals than you would expect but has also given up low -quality Chances was good in the penalty shootout for Argentina that got them into the semifinals Yeah, I think
Speaker: On talent, you perhaps could pretend that because of the clubs Hugo Martin, Hugo Larisse is better than Deebu Martinez. I think at this point, they at the international level so much is a function of the chances your teams give up. I think both of these keepers are adequate shot stoppers.
Speaker: Deebu Martinez maybe on some of the goals could have done slightly better but he merits full confidence from his team and I think if it comes to a shootout Deebu Martinez psychological advantage and having 1 -1 already baked in that advantage definitely helps Argentina here.
Speaker: He's not going to be the reason they lose this game. And if he is, then, yeah, something has gone horribly wrong. And Hugo Larisse has been a reason that Tottenham and France have lost matches every once in a blue moon. And then we're like, well, he's due for one, but it could be in seven games. It doesn't happen. So unless he decides to ship one, he's also probably not going to be the reason France lose.
Speaker: But he is due for one. He is due for one. He is due for one. All right. In the back, this is where we get to our first question. How are Argentina going to line up in this game? And I think this might come as a bit of a surprise to both of us, particularly given what Argentina were able to do against Croatia. It is looking likely that Argentina are going to play five at the back in this game from the start.
Speaker: DeMaria, 100 % fit, could be an option from the start. It looks like Scoloni will leave him on the bench to start this match as an option to come on in the second half. Looks like Paredes will drop to the bench as well, and Argentina will play five at the back. Acuna coming back into the spot at left back after Talia Fico played well in the semifinal. The three centerbacks, Martinez, Otamendi, and Cuzzi Romero, and at right back, it'll be Naluel Molina.
Speaker: That's the back five for Argentina. That's a big decision for Lionel Scolone and is a massive decision. What do you make of the apparent shift to five at the back here? This to me is very, very interesting. And honestly, I mean, we're on the defenses, but this is the crux of the game, right? Is
Speaker: against Morocco, when Morocco played five in the back, they had less control over the game and they gave up a goal to France in a moment of transition because the channels are different with five versus four. And on Argentina's side of it, five in the back worked against the Netherlands very, very well to respect the Netherlands attacking talent. So it's like two very contrasting data points. And what do you believe?
Speaker: I think...
Speaker: Yeah, go ahead. I think I would tend to lean to crowding the midfield and trying to win the midfield because I think that's when Morocco had the most success against France. But I also concede that Argentina's wing backs are fundamentally important to what they want to do in the attack and playing five at the back will allow Acuna and Molina to be more invested in the attack and you can cover France coming back the other way. So I get the idea of playing five at the back.
Speaker: I get it too. I think in a World Cup final, you don't want to start off by being extremely dangerous to Mbappe. So I get it. It makes sense to me. Also, the difference between Argentina playing five in the back and Morocco playing five in the back, they were doing it to protect Roman Sice. They had
Speaker: two of their not top choice center backs in the three center backs. Argentina have their two great center backs that are adding a third, also very good center back. We saw it work against the Netherlands and all three of them are good enough at building out of the back and making decisions, hitting long balls, breaking lines, that it doesn't kill Argentina's buildup. They'll definitely be
Speaker: less control of this game than they could if they chose to flood the midfield. But I think for Scolone, I get it. It's a World Cup final. You want to be protective first. Maybe this was the way it was always going to go. It's kind of a zero sums game. When the other team, when we have weapons of mass destruction, like Mbappe and Messi, right, you've got to do everything you can to protect yourself. And that leads to this Nash equilibrium of both teams being boring. But this is a World Cup final.
Speaker: So going the other way for France, this has been interesting because in the buildup, there's been sickness that has run through the French team. It sounds like a couple of cases of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome. I think it's syndrome. Is that what the S stands for in MERS? Anyway, has kind of flown through France. It looks like they're on the other side of that. Everybody supposedly trained for France today. If you believe the report, I personally would not
Speaker: want a respiratory bug running through my team the week leading into the World Cup final, but it looks like France are going to be okay. At least that's how it feels on paper. If Didier de Champs has his primary options, I think the expectation here is that he plays Cunde, Veron, Uppomaceno, and Deo Hernandez as his back four, which he has done pretty much throughout the tournament when possible. Right. He said
Speaker: I want to play Upamakano, Upamiseno when he's healthy, which is interesting because I thought Kanate was clearly better than him in one game. Now, I understand you have a lineup, you have a first choice 11, you have guys that expect to be in these roles. I understand that Upamakano is probably, is maybe a better player on paper. Sure, Kanate is not a starter at Liverpool either, but
Speaker: Ufumakado is mistake prone, he can get beat by dribblers, and he just hasn't had his best tournament.
Speaker: And Kanate didn't put a foot wrong against a very good Morocco attack. And this is the side of the field where Messi is on. This is your left center back. And you need protection for Teo Hernandez. You know why? Because that's Mbappe's side. So that side needs even more protection. So this is a big, big ask of these two defenders, the left back side for France here.
Speaker: because this is where Argentina are going to funnel their attacks, right? Molina is going to come up in the outside back.
Speaker: And Alvarez might drift over, but Messi's just going to be hanging around, just hanging around at all points, lurking, dangerous. And then DePaul will come over and flood this channel as well. So this is like for Argentina's attack and France's defense, the problem area of the field. So it's a big game, big game for Bruno McConnell. He's a perfectly good center defender. But then when you watch him at these games,
Speaker: You know, we have some friends that watch a lot of Bundesliga and they oftentimes just send texts and roasting him like, Oh, he's getting, he just made a big mistake in a game that you started off by saying is coming down to individual moments, mistakes. This is one where you're going against the most terrified dribbler in the world right now. I'd be terrified.
Speaker: Should also note that that is what we expect France to do. Conate is an option. I'm going on Ole here, who are very good at projecting formations and having bugs in every other little teams. They have Obamakano or Conate. So, chalk all, you know, kind of ground all of that in that. But I think we would lean that Obamakano would go here. And I think that's a part of the field that Argentina will certainly have circled as we shift forward into talking about the midfield.
Speaker: For France, it looks like it'll be too many, Fofana, Dembele, and do we want to count Griezmann in this midfield? Yeah, he's kind of the withdrawn striker, kind of a 10. I mean, that's his role. He's a hybrid. Yeah.
Speaker: So that French midfield, they kind of got played out of the game against Morocco. Morocco had more numbers in the midfield. France couldn't really control the game, and they struggled. What do we expect from them here, particularly if we operate under the assumption that Argentina are going to play five at the back? It helps France. There's a little more space for Fafana and Chomini to control the game.
Speaker: And while Griezmann is kind of a hybrid midfield attacker, he's not always in that line of midfielders controlling it. So it's two versus three. It can be three if Dembele tucks in or if Griezmann drops back. But then on the other side for Argentina, right, if McAllister is playing, it's only Fernandez
Speaker: and DePaul, right? Because there's three defenders back. So numbers wise, France are not under the gun from the start here. They're okay. This is obviously Griezmann, the advanced stats and the eye test are saying that he's having one of the best tournaments of all the players here.
Speaker: And it kind of adds up. He's been very creative. His passing has been awesome. And when France aren't getting anything out of Dembele on their right side, Griezmann has really picked up that slack as the creator. They get the ball to him in between the lines, and he's sending Giroud. He's sending Mbappe. He's been very dangerous. So that's the player specifically that Fernandez and DePaul need to
Speaker: you know, deny him distribution. But Chomany's good enough that you also need to stop him from playing the ball too. Fofana is fine. He's a good player at this level, don't get me wrong, but he's not the guy that could hurt you. This is where if Rabio is recovered from his illness, available, I think he gives France that much of a boost. So that's a really big question for them.
Speaker: Moving to the Argentine side, I think their midfield has been fundamental to why they've had success at this tournament. We've talked about it a lot on this podcast. The addition of Enzo Fernandez opened up a different style of play for Argentina, allowed Lionel Messi to play much further forward, allowed the advancement of possession to fall to other players. That has been the role of Enzo Fernandez. That has been the role of Rodrigo de Paul in this tournament. They have largely played that role very, very well.
Speaker: agreed with you. That has been their secret sauce. Those two players in particular, it's a big game for them to keep doing it, especially because if there's five in the back, they either need to do it against even numbers, right? It's not going to be as easy, or they, you know, they need the center backs to have a really good day distribution, which they can.
Speaker: It's interesting to see with five in the back, how much can this midfield press? When do Argentina press in this game? Because with five, it's a little harder. And with Messi up top, you're just not as naturally pressing. Argentina are perfectly fine at playing up the field and locking their opponents in. But is that what they want to do with five? Is that what they want to do against Mbappe?
Speaker: I don't know, selectively, right? And that's another big, big question in this game is how often does either team do that? France will press at 0 -0. They will. Mbappe is fine of doing that, and they know how to do that. But they also saw what happened to Croatia when Croatia got high up the field. Messi's hold -up play right now is lethal.
Speaker: game. Yeah, another big player for Argentina has been very good in this tournament has given them an outlet opposite messy and attack minded player who can combine with messy moving towards the middle and also given them something on what is Argentina's left side of the field with combination play with a player
Speaker: like Acuna coming forward. And I think this is interesting because you talked about Dembele hasn't been great for France in this tournament. He's on the French right, along with Cunde in the back. If Argentina look to switch play and go on the left side, McAllister and Marcos Acuna going up against Dembele and Cunde on that French right side, that's an interesting, underratedly important matchup on the field in this game.
Speaker: Yes, it's not the side where either team will want to build up to, but it will be an outlet. And if Argentina can win that with, you know, Acuna having the freedom and a back five to really go be aggressive, Cunde is not a weak player. He's actually a very good defender, but because he's more of a natural center back than a right back, France can't build up there. So Argentina can really press that side.
Speaker: And if it's an outlet for Acuna, right, then Dembele has to track back and then you lose an outlet already. So like the ways for Argentina to control this game are putting France's players who that side has been weak under pressure. So while Argentina don't want to attack that left side, that's a way that they could really hurt France and lock France in.
Speaker: And that could get that I you mentioned it right there at the end perfectly. That is a way that Argentina can have seven to 10 minutes of dominance in this game is if they overload that side for a little bit lock France in don't allow them to play out and then funnel play over to Messi when the opportunity arises. All right, we've gotten to the front.
Speaker: I know I didn't really stick to the formation, but we had to save Messi and Mbappe for the end. Let's throw in the two strikers as well with them. Let's start with France, Mbappe and Giroud. Olivier Giroud has had a very good tournament. Korean Benzema, he is not. By the way, did you like the Korean Benzema rumors this week?
Speaker: I love the Korean Benzema rumors. Try to get some uncertainty. It's like a college football coach. He's like, there's an oar on the depth chart, that striker. No, there's not. Korean Benzema's not playing. He hasn't touched a ball in a month. You think he's going to come play the World Cup Final? Nice. Nice try. I liked it. I liked it. That said, Giroud has been very good for France at this tournament. In a World Cup Final, he has to be clinical. Don't know how many chances he will get. When he gets them, he has to take them. Right.
Speaker: the very slight difference between him and a Benzema is that Giroud is very good at taking chances. He is an elite striker still, but he is not the cream Benzema stratosphere of finishing every, not every, but more half chances. And if he does, then France are going to be in very good shape because no matter how this game goes, he's going to get two or three half chances. He just will.
Speaker: if he puts one of them away great if he gets a big chance he has to score it this is very reductive but like that's striker analysis france are good enough that he's going to get some and listen he has maybe his toughest assignment yet is to jostle against
Speaker: three good center backs. Ottomendi has been excellent. Romero has been excellent. Martinez, for the most part, has been good. There's a height advantage there. The Netherlands were able to make that an issue. I don't know how repeatable that is. I don't think France are just going to launch balls at La Taro, not La Taro, excuse me.
Speaker: Lissandra Martinez Martinez mixed up at Lissandra Martinez to start this game. There's no way they're gonna do that But that's it. That's a sneaky plot to watch. I Think Jeru is going to be dependent on the service He'll get some and if this game goes into transition moments for France if they get one early That's where it's on him to make this two three zero, right? And that's where he frankly didn't do it against Morocco and let Morocco hang in that game until the 80th minute
Speaker: So that's a big question here. And flip side, different against England. He won them the game against England. It was 1 -1 when England tied it, and then he stole a goal against the run of play on a half chance. This is the Olivier Giroud experience. He's a match winner, but he also could maybe not be elite elite.
Speaker: On the other side, Julien Alvarez is a completely different player than Olivier Giroux. He brings a different vibe to Argentina, allows them to play a pressing style. He is a scrappy, dirty, kind of junky number nine who creates half chances and scores them. He's done that at this World Cup. I think particularly about the goal that he scored against Australia, where he robbed the ball off Matthew Ryan and finished in one turn, and obviously the goal against Croatia.
Speaker: in the semi -final when he just went on a run and nobody was able to stop him and somehow the ball went in. Alvarez has been massive for Argentina. Can this hot streak last for one more match? That's the big question, right? And I think the thing with Tulian Alvarez is he is good enough to create his own luck. That's the difference between him and Olivier Giroud.
Speaker: If you look at strikers, there are finishers, there are creators, there are guys that give themselves more half chances. Olivier Giroud maybe earlier in his career would get into these positions more. I don't think it's fair to say Olivier Giroud is washed. He's not. He still had a good season at Milan. But at this point, he is much more of a central poacher
Speaker: finish crosses type of guy, finish cutbacks. Alvarez does those things and he's a little more mucky than Giroud, but he just is such a great mover that you feel his presence on your back line the entire game. As you said, he can press.
Speaker: And he's very physical and fast. So his mission should be to make the French defenders uncomfortable for 90 minutes, right? Run the channels, jostle with them in the box, press them hard. And we talked about it, right? If Uma Makano is going to make a mistake, you know who creates defenders mistakes? Alvarez. This is literally what Hoover and Alvarez does. He creates his own luck by just being a nuisance in the box.
Speaker: this is like for Argentina to win this game they need him to do what he's been doing all tournament that's the big question like can he do it again the evidence says yes and that France are leaky enough to allow him to do it but if he doesn't right this becomes a lot harder you're a lot more reliant on the messy magic to get you something if he is you know just
Speaker: getting on, if he's also vertical, right? That's the other thing. That's how we hurt Croatia is his vertical threat. Giroud does not have that. This is Argentina's X factor. We've said the two X factors for Argentina this tournament, Enzo Fernandez, Julio Alvarez. This right here is how Argentina can turn this game into their advantage if he is stretching them, pressing them, haranguing them, all of those things.
Speaker: This is how Argentina win this match in the non -messy extraordinary performance division. There is always that path for Argentina. Regardless of what happens, that route will stay open to winning this game. That Lionel Messi just does what he did against Mexico, finds a sliver of a half space, scores a goal, and they can win this match.
Speaker: If they don't rely on that, and I don't think they want to be reliant on that, their path to victory goes through Julian Alvarez being an X factor, making life hard for the French defense, and simply working his way into chances. That's what he did against Croatia is he gradually wore them down,
Speaker: And when Croatia left a space open, when Dan Lovern in a moment of transition was sitting back too far, he pounced, made the great run, won the penalty, won the goal. That's how Argentina got 1 -0 up.
Speaker: right exactly that's what he does and just to add he did finish Messi's goal right he had to make the run to be there which is you know i think it was a pretty simple finish for a player like Alvarez but he he had to run with Messi and read you know he's good he's good at that same thing if Messi's going to do the messy magic and it's creating the chance like Giroud he needs to finish his big chances
Speaker: And I think we've seen pretty good combination play between those two so far at this tournament. For two players who have pretty much not played together at all in Messi's Argentina career, I think he and Alvarez have gotten along very well in this tournament. And as we've said, Alvarez complements this Argentina team a bit better than what well Taler Martinez has done. We'll get to the bench in a minute. We haven't talked about the two stars. The reason that almost everybody is watching this game.
Speaker: the matchup of generations, the MJ LeBron, the Mahomes, Brady, the whoever, whoever, Messi against Mbappe. These players are very similar in that they are both high level attacking players
Speaker: who when a game goes to muck can create something out of nothing through sheer will and sheer extraordinary brilliance. Both of these players could absolutely be the difference in this game. Which team do you think is better equipped to attempt to limit the impact that Messi and Mbappe will have on this game and how will they look to do it?
Speaker: It's a very, very good question. It's the question, right? Even what we've seen, Argentina are better prepared personnel and tactically to slow down Mbappe. Now, this is a big game for Nahuel Molina and whoever the right center back is because Mbappe kind of thrashed Morocco, but
Speaker: Akimi did his best, right. They, they had, they were able, and then Amrabbat covered right and did his best which was almost superhuman to ask that of your central midfielder. Okay, England slowed him down with Kyle Walker, with the defensive system.
Speaker: You can see them, you know, stopping him in both of those games. He still showed up right with assists and goals. So I think Argentina are better equipped to slow him down. I also think it's a thing where like France with Theo Hernandez and Upamakano on that side. That's not what I would call being structurally prepared to defend Messi, but France's overall approach will be.
Speaker: We're going to defend much deeper than Argentina would. So I don't know. I also think Mbappe, his threat is obvious. It's at all points. It's in the shape of the game. Any green grass is Mbappe threat.
Speaker: Messi's the opposite, right? The tighter it gets, the tighter the window is that you step on him, then the threat is for him to get the ball into space for someone else, right? And the Cavardio goal was sublime. Like if he does that again, then yeah.
Speaker: So they're game -breaking talents in different ways. Mbappe is the space, Messi is his genius, is dribbling. So I think Argentina are better equipped to do it, but Mbappe is more of a threat at all times. Messi isn't a threat at all times, but he's so good that that's where you don't know where he's just going to pop up and cook your teeth.
Speaker: I don't know. I think he answered this question. They're so good. They're similar, but as you agree in different ways, I don't know. I don't know. I think it's fascinating because we expect these two players to have an outsized impact on the final. There's no doubt about that. There's so much at stake for both of them. I think
Speaker: It's easy to get lost in the legacy talk, in the big picture talk, but I think it's relevant in a World Cup final because these are the matches that change everything in the footballing world.
Speaker: Yes, they do. And Mbappe in the 2018 World Cup Final was the best player on the field. He just was. And it was when that game got into transition, he was unstoppable. The one -man counter -attack. Against Argentina, the 4 -3 game in the round of 16 in 2018,
Speaker: He had one counter where he just like showed everyone that he was a hundred meter track star. You know the goal. He earns the penalty. I think that that was terrifying. I'm sure Argentina fans have nightmares of that. Right. So I don't think it's fair to say that Mbappe has a bigger game legacy than Messi. Messi's decorated careers of this, but
Speaker: Messi has won one Copa America final. He was not his best in that game. He was fine. In his World Cup final in 2014, he was fine. He did not have a lot of help and Germany had the game plan to shut him down. This Argentina team is good enough that Messi can have
Speaker: the outsized impact in this game that we've talked about. But there's, I think, real pressure on Messi here, right? This is assuredly his last final. He hasn't done it yet in this game, which is a stupid thing to say about his legacy, right? He's really done it all. But like, this for him, it's he's kind of made his own expectations higher than I even thought they would be. I thought in this run for Argentina, he would be a good player for them. He would be their offensive force.
Speaker: and that they have a team around him to get here. And it's turned out he's actually like the second or best player in the tournament. It's been insane. It's been insane what he's done. And if he can continue to play like he has played in this tournament, he can be the match winner for Argentina here. And in a game that we've now spent 35 minutes breaking down,
Speaker: The big thesis is this is a game that will come down to moments. And you have two absolute moment makers, one on each side in Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe. And it's so reductive and it takes away from everything else that this match is about. But at the end of the day, there is a significant chance that this match, this final, this entire tournament is going to come down.
Speaker: to which of those two supremely elite players makes one more moment than the other. That's it. That's what this very likely could come down to. And that is what makes this such an intriguing proposition and such a fantastic game for the neutral because it's a game where you expect the two elite players to have an impact and it's a game where the two elite players should have an impact. One thing we've talked about with these two guys throughout this tournament
Speaker: is both of these guys are non -contributors generally on the defensive end for their team. They don't run defensively, but perhaps crucially, Argentina have created a system where the other 10 players on the field have all bought into their system and are all ready and willing to contribute to that system and cover.
Speaker: for the moments when Lionel Messi doesn't give them things defensively. There will be moments when he will track back, when he will look depressed. Those moments are limited. He only has so much that he can do with his legs in a match where he has to be prepared to play 120 minutes. He is not coming off the pitch in this match under any circumstance.
Speaker: Because of that, in the 14th minute, Lionel Messi is probably not going to track back unless he is firmly convinced that he can get his team a goal. Kylian Mbappe also does not track back. I think one crucial difference in this match is France have not tailored their system to cover for that.
Speaker: Argentina have created their entire system around the proposition that Lionel Messi is our best player. He does not contribute to our team defensively. The other 10 players have to make sure that their combined efforts make it so that we have 11 players working on defense. I don't think France have that in their system. I think that is one place where this match could be won for Argentina.
Speaker: if they continually, constantly pressure that French side. We saw Morocco have success with that. Force Didier de Champs to do one of two things. To say to Kylian Mbappe, you have to defend or to change his system in order to protect that side like we saw against Morocco so that Mbappe's allergy to defense does not cost this team.
Speaker: that's the best way to put it right there if because France the reason why he doesn't defend is because his value in transition as a threat just of hey if we win the ball and we get it to him and you don't cover
Speaker: It doesn't matter that we've been under pressure for 10, 15 minutes. It's automatically a big chance the other way. And Morocco, what, snubbed out that chance twice and then had 70 minutes where they produced 7XG. And France survived. They survived. But against Argentina, if they're going to attack that space, does Deschamps have to make a change? I don't think he proactively makes a change in his team's approach.
Speaker: That's the big question for Argentina, is if they can force France to change or punish France for that weakness, right? Because that totally changes the French approach. Because what we saw against Morocco, they had to bring Giroud off. Because Giroud is also a non -entity in defense. Yeah, he's not a president. That's not his game.
Speaker: He doesn't apply pressure. He doesn't have the legs to track back. He can't put pressure on the opposing back line. So if you have two of your three attacking players are generally not contributing to your defensive effort, that is naturally going to pin you back because you are not able to pressure the opposition team. So what Argentina want to do, like you said, is one of two things.
Speaker: A, they want to punish France for that, create a goal on that right side, take advantage of the space that Mbappe leaves defensively with the risk of knowing that all of that green grass, as you said, is danger, going the other way, absolutely. Or they want France to have to change their style of play. And if they have to take off one of their game -breaking attacking talents, which would obviously be Giroud, they're not taking Mbappe off, that is a win for Argentina. Absolutely a win.
Speaker: Yeah, I think so. It's very, very fascinating to see what Deschamps does. And I think Scolone is being protective first, right? If Scolone didn't go to five in the back, this question would be more magnified because
Speaker: Yes, there'd be more space for Mbappe, but there'd be much more control and numbers for Argentina. So I think that is something Scoloni has in his pocket. And if he can get a 1 -0 lead without having to do that, France are in trouble, because they don't want to have to be forced to create against a 5 in the back. That is a very good option for Scoloni to have if his team go down 1. OK, great. We're going to switch. We're going to control the midfield. We're going to make Mbappe defend.
Speaker: Yeah, you're down one, you have to live with transition, but if France go down one, it's a big, big question on them because they have not been great at creating against a set defense, a very good set defense. They did it against England, but like when they, I'm just, I'm worried about France going down in this game, but they almost never do, right? So I don't know.
Speaker: Let's talk about the benches quickly. Argentina's main threat off the bench is probably going to be on held Di Maria. I would say it is certain that he is going to play a role in this match. I think when that happens will be determined by game state. If Argentina go down a goal, you will see Di Maria earlier. If this match is level, you will see him later with the possibility of extra time looming.
Speaker: That is a potential game -changing player for Argentina. He was very good in the group stage of this tournament, got hurt, hasn't really had an impact since the knockout round started. That's a player to keep an eye on from the bench for Argentina. And I think something else that's worth noting here when we talk about potential changes, Argentina has been very fluid tactically in this tournament. They have played a number of different systems. They have played them well.
Speaker: that works in their favor here. They start in one system. That does not mean they have to play that system for the whole game. It does not mean they have to make major changes to switch their system. At any point in this game, Scolese can take off one of those center backs, can put on another player at a different part of the pitch, and immediately change his formation, and his players can do it like that. Snap of the finger, switch of system. That works in their favor. Agreed. Very, very good point. And I do think, right,
Speaker: Now that we've went through it for 40 minutes, you start to see the 3%. Just a little bit. The talent and the threat of Mbappe is what makes this whole France team go. And for Argentina, it's the flexibility. It's the understanding of the roles. It's the control. It's all of that. And they've shown they're willing to play different games.
Speaker: That all there are just little edges that help Argentina. It's still on a knife's edge, of course, but I think, you know, Scoloni has done very good. The fact, as you mentioned, they could change systems depending on the score is very good.
Speaker: I think we don't know yet what France have to do. France haven't had to play that game. They have played the same game every single match of this World Cup. They went down a goal against Australia, battered them going forward, game over. Every game that France has played at this World Cup has for the most part followed the same script.
Speaker: And so, as you love to say, at some point, every team has to go for it. Is that this game? Because if France don't have to do that, then yeah, Argentina are in trouble. If it is, Argentina's defense actually are very good at limiting chances, but they have kind of collapsed a few times, right? Yes. Argentina, or sorry, Australia, almost a full -on collapse. Saudi Arabia, wonky XG, but a collapse. Netherlands,
Speaker: are those repeatable things? No, but it's got to be looming in the mind. Scoloni has done the right things when his teams take the lead, but it's, it's dicey and France haven't been in that position. So it's very, very fascinating. I think obviously as a neutral, um, watching France have to attack Argentina with the one zero lead for Argentina is like,
Speaker: the most entertaining and for you like the most sweating out of I mean they're all like this is all bad there's one the down one but yes anyways that's terrifying but it's a big question for France we don't know how to do it against Australia they did not really have to change too much they just stayed with their approach because they knew we could batter them in our in our normal game plan and
Speaker: The question for them though, can they batter Argentina with a midfield of Chalmeni and Fofana? And I think changes have to happen. And when those changes happen, how does France defend when they're defending transition? How does France defend like when Croatia was down one, what happened to them? Alvarez transition, Messi transition.
Speaker: These are game breakers that you have to respect. How do they do that? And so I would love to see that. I don't know. I can't say that that game state is going to come. But that's a big, big question for France. We don't have an answer. And I lean towards being skeptical because I haven't seen it and because defensively they're not airtight.
Speaker: If France go down a goal, and they're looking for an offensive change, and they're looking for a fresh approach and attack, they're looking for fresh legs, is there somebody on that bench that you think can come in and change things for France? France don't have Angel Di Maria on the bench. Argentina have Angel Di Maria as an option on the bench. Argentina have Lautaro Martinez, who is also a player that you would expect to play a role in this game, given that Julien Alvarez has played 60 to 65 minutes in this tournament pretty regularly.
Speaker: What is the option on the other side for the shelves? Right. So Dembele, again, at some point, Dembele having a good game could really change this for France. He's very, very good. I've seen him do it at Barcelona, but it's maybe just not clicking. And maybe that's because Kunde is behind him. And so he's not getting great opportunities to attack. Okay. Kingsley Koman could come on in that role. Kingsley Koman is very fast, very technical, very creative.
Speaker: I actually think he is good enough to start, but he could do that. The thing with Kalman is he doesn't really make them more creative. He just gives them more dribbling pace, right? So to me, if they're chasing a game, the best player to do this is Kama Vinga. And you saw this with Real Madrid in their miraculous, math -defying Champions League run.
Speaker: And of course Madrid have the best midfield in the world. And then they subbed on Kama Vinga and they looked better because age 30 plus Tony Cruz is actually not that good with his legs. And Kama Vinga is very good. And I'm a little baffled why we haven't seen him more in this tournament. Maybe that's because he's that player to Duchamp. I just struggled to be like, why wouldn't you run out a Kama Vinga Ciao Maini midfield? But I get it. You want...
Speaker: the Rabios just also really good. Play three then and maybe you shift Griezmann wide and don't play Dembele. They want Griezmann centrally. I don't understand why Kama Vinga hasn't played. I'm sure Deschamps has his reasons. It's the World Cup Final. You need a game -breaking midfielder. That's what he does. He's just very good at covering a lot of space. A one -man creator by spraying balls wide. That's the question for them.
Speaker: I don't know. He hasn't done it for France. It's a little different at Madrid than it is for France.
Speaker: There's tons of tactical things to talk about in this game. We've talked about nearly all of them. We've touched on the managers a little bit. It's a super interesting managerial clash, right? Lionel Scolone has passed all of the tests at this World Cup, but he is still a first -time manager in a World Cup final. Didier Deschamps has been there, done that, and you and I both think he made a very proactive change that helped his French side in the semifinal. Deschamps gives France a managerial advantage here, right?
Speaker: Yes, I do think he has the team that it's more comfortable for him to do more conservative changes and they're more likely to work, which is smart and why we have to say that. I think Scolone understands that one of the advantages he can have is being more proactive and aggressive with his changes, but
Speaker: they're also more likely to backfire. So, Scolone is in the position where he's harder to grave, and so far he's done well. He's done well, but you can't predict the bounces of a game, so who's more likely to adjust better to them? The answer is both coaches can.
Speaker: adjust, which makes this good. So yeah, sure, we could give the advantage to Champs. I think both coaches are not going to be the reasons their team lose. At this level, at this World Cup final, I would be shocked if it's either manager's fault, but it could be. We both have very clear ideas of how to approach this game, how to react to this game. I think the managers have those answers too. If they don't, if they do something wrong, it'll be pretty obvious for us to come criticize. Yeah.
Speaker: All right, we've talked about everything on the field. Let's close this out. Sorry, no third place game, break down. It was a fun afternoon on Saturday for Croatia and Morocco. Croatia got a medal. Congrats to them. Great tournament for both teams. We're not here to talk third place games. We're here to talk the World Cup final. As we close this out, Amit,
Speaker: all of the big picture stuff, all of the off the field stuff. We've talked about how much this World Cup would mean to Argentina. It would obviously mean a lot to France as well. For killing Mbappe to have lifted the World Cup twice by the age of 23,
Speaker: for France to have become the first team in the modern era to win back -to -back World Cups, to hold on to the trophy, those would be massive achievements. We're not saying that it wouldn't. France very clearly want to win this. But it's also kind of hard to shake the feeling that Argentina might want this even more. Yes, it's everything we said from the start with Argentina, that extra bit of desire, passion,
Speaker: the I outlined this very early on and then I saw players say it is the double messy effect you're playing for Argentina and then you're playing for messy and they really want to play for messy too yeah so that part of it somehow has mattered will matter
Speaker: I, yeah, it's hard. Obviously France want it. It's not that they don't, but Argentina are in this really ethereal plane right now of like team of destiny. Almost the whole world is probably rooting for them, right? Like they're the neutrals favorite. I think the crowd while France will be there will be feel more like a home match for Argentina. I think there is this waiting coronation for Messi to happen.
Speaker: If Messi wins, everyone who's ever watched a second of a football match will think to themselves, man, that guy's the GOAT. And everyone who has ever had a license to share an opinion about soccer is going to get on their platform and say, hey, this guy's the GOAT. It's already been happening, but this is the coronation of Lionel Messi. He just needs to go out and win. But I think
Speaker: you know there's a reason why people are the negative side is it's rigged it's rigged of course it's not rigged France could win this game but like if Messi wins think about just think about what's going to be said about him what's already been said that is all on the line here and of course if Mbappe wins everyone's going to lose their collective minds over him as they probably should but
Speaker: Lito Messi has been the greatest player in the world for like 15, 16 years. Imagine having all of that run up come down to one match. Now who has the pressure? Who has the expectation? Who has the passion to go out and play?
Speaker: I think it's super interesting. I was asked, you know, which team has more pressure in this World Cup final? And I think the answer is pretty clearly Argentina. But I don't know that it's pressure from a bad place. Argentina have a pressure on them because there is this inherent desire to win this tournament. There's not a fear anymore of losing this tournament.
Speaker: There absolutely was when Argentina took the field to play Mexico in their second group stage match. There was when they took the field to play Poland in their third group stage match. Argentina have now played five finals at this World Cup. Ever since the match against Saudi Arabia, every time Argentina have stepped out on the pitch, they have done so with the knowledge that this with a loss would be their last day at this World Cup. That their magical dance of trying to get Messi a World Cup would be over.
Speaker: I think that works in Argentina's favor. They are accustomed to playing with the pressure of the World Cup on their shoulders. Now what happens when it's not just about not losing to stay in the World Cup, but it comes down to actually winning the World Cup?
Speaker: Right? That I think could be a change of equation for them. But they have dealt with the pressure. They have an entire nation so firmly behind them. It is insane these feelings here in Argentina. The desire, I think, is the right word to use.
Speaker: If Argentina lose this game, I don't believe anybody will be scapegoated unless there is a particularly poor performance. Lionel Messi has established his spot in the hearts and minds of the Argentine people. Regardless of the result of this match, he will be beloved. But oh man, if they win.
Speaker: changes the entire equation. And what became a fantastic World Cup run that brought the country together and had all these joyous feelings would turn into as big a celebration as we've seen on the world footballing stage.
Speaker: And that is what is 90 minutes or 120 minutes or 120 minutes and God forbid penalties away from us on Sunday. I mean, it's the biggest stage in world football. We said before the tournament that we picked Argentina to win this match. You're not changing your mind here, are you?
Speaker: no i'm not i'm definitely not if you had told me at the start of the tournament it's an argentina france final i'd be like yeah argentina are maybe slightly underdogs but they can of course win that and now here we are i think they're the slightest the three percent slightest of favorites or even on betting odds plus the vibes and yeah i'm not changing it let's let's see messy do it right this is what it's all about and
Speaker: It's nothing about France that I don't like. You know, I respect them. I can have my own personal biases against them because I like Argentina. And I, if you haven't learned by now, I don't particularly care for Killian Mbappe while respecting his best player in the world status. Those two things can be true. It's emotional. It's romantic. We always said it was, but here we are in all the emotional and romantic things. Perhaps, perhaps they matter.
Speaker: And are we naive? Sure, but let's take that ride and for 90 minutes, 120 minutes, be with the belief that the after dark stuff matters. Why not? Let's close with this. I have had this kind of thought in my head for quite a while throughout the World Cup and I've
Speaker: been hesitant to bring it up. I love the Argentine national anthem. I think it is a fantastic piece of music. I think it is a very good national anthem. It's a top tier national anthem. The World Cup brings that out, shows the national anthem on the full stage. The last two lines of the Argentine national anthem, which obviously is a battle hymn from the Spanish war when Argentina fought for independence in 1810. I think it sums up Sunday perfectly
Speaker: for the 26 players in the Argentine squad. I'm gonna test your Spanish here, Amit, and then I'll happily provide you the English translation. The last two lines of the Argentine national anthem are, Coronados de Gloria Vivamos, O Juremos con Gloria Morir, and then you repeat that two times more. O Juremos con Gloria Morir. That literally translates to, oh, I got it.
Speaker: With glory, we will live or we swear that with glory, we will die. Boom. That is what Argentina will do on Sunday. They will either win this match and live with glory or they will fight tooth and nail to the bone. And as they have sworn with glory, they will die. Oh, chills. World Cup after dark podcast.
Speaker: We've got full circle. We've used the anthem as evidence for the Argentine passion. It's not crazy. This is what it means. Oh, fire me up. I can't believe that there are still like 20 hours until this game happens. I'm happy we waited this long to record the preview podcast. I'm now in World Cup final mode. Amit, enjoy the final tomorrow. It's been a fun ride so far this World Cup. We will be back at some point to break down the final.
Speaker: I don't know if it will be tomorrow. I don't know if it will be Monday. We'll break down the final. We'll give a team at the tournament. We'll hand out World Cup After Darkie awards, but let's just sit back and enjoy this ride as much as possible because it is not only the biggest stage in world football, but it is as big of a match as we can hope for. It is the two stars of the past and the present going head to head for World Cup glory. Oh man, I can't wait.
Speaker: Can't wait either. Said it perfectly. We're so excited. And if you've been listening, we know you are too. Enjoy it. Enjoy the World Cup Final. We don't get these and we don't get one as special as this maybe, maybe ever. So let's have fun.
Speaker: We've gone on 59 minutes. If you've made it this far, it's because you were a true fan of the World Cup after our podcast. We thank you for your listenership throughout the tournament. We will be back to break down the final whenever we find time to do it, or mainly whenever I am calm enough or sane enough to do it, regardless of the result for Argentina. We'll catch you then. Enjoy the final. Thanks for listening as always.
