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00:00:01
A 10-Minute Chat on Satellites and Starlink
26 Plays3 months ago
In this quick episode recorded in-between travels, I take a look at why Starlink is such a hot commodity right now—and what it could mean for telcos and the U.S. market.
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Transcript
Introduction, satellites, and the long-term plan
00:00:02
Pablo Tomasi
Hello and welcome back to the Telco Drift. For those that I haven't met yet, I am Paolo Tomasi and I'm an independent analyst that are covering, you know, different bits and pieces across the tech space.
00:00:14
Pablo Tomasi
Now for this episode, I'm i'm really aiming for like 10 minutes and I want to have a quick chat on satellites and particularly on Starlink because whether we like it or not, when we're thinking about what's happening with satellites, it's pretty much all about Starlink at the moment.
00:00:28
Pablo Tomasi
So I'm going to try to discuss a little bit why Starlink is such a big deal and what could be the implications ah for Telcos and what could be some broader implication for the market for the future.
00:00:39
Pablo Tomasi
um So, but before we start, it you know, just came to mind. There are a couple of things that that I've been learning about the podcast. you know, had some conversation with, you know, some fellow analysts and a couple of people that are, you know, surprisingly listening to this.
00:00:52
Pablo Tomasi
um And you know some some of the suggestions like you know increase the preparation and make sure that you have that sort of long-term goal for the podcast. So I'm still working on that.
00:01:05
Pablo Tomasi
It's getting there. i've I've decided I'm going try to push little bit more on the sci-fi side of things, if I can. um Probably starting with some wide-off predictions. um But that is sort of the direction that eventually...
00:01:19
Pablo Tomasi
would like this to go. would love to sort of start talking about tech and horror movies, but that really require a very specific niche audience. we'll We'll see if we get there.
Starlink's Satellite Expansion
00:01:28
Pablo Tomasi
But anyways, without all this blubbering, ah let's ah let's talk a little bit about Satellite and let's talk a little bit about Starlink. So first of all, you know, when you're looking at the at the company,
00:01:42
Pablo Tomasi
They have been doing some some amazing things, and and and part of their success has to be with how they have been doing things. And currently, they have 7,800 satellites.
00:01:53
Pablo Tomasi
you know I think they have plans for 40,000-something satellites overall. um Of course, course um my cost of manufacturing, you know according to different sources, has you know decreased over over the last few years.
00:02:07
Pablo Tomasi
And initially, apparently, um you know, like in any in any big endeavor, very high cost in the in the thousands and now bringing it down to a more manageable level. Now, what is really interesting, we all know, that's a Leo constellation, and there are around 550 kilometers.
00:02:25
Pablo Tomasi
ah And the whole constellation, I think that's like, see, this is like a public available information. 450 terabytes of cumulative capacity, which is huge.
00:02:35
Pablo Tomasi
and And that is one of the really interesting things, because they keep adding capacity. One of the opportunities that comes with Leo, right? You can add a lot of capacity Now, um another key aspect of Starlink is that this is a you know an integrated company, if you want, ah you know as part of SpaceX. So they have the capabilities to launch stuff. They have their own rockets.
00:03:00
Pablo Tomasi
And when you're such an integrated company, effectively, you can design things to best fit with your satellite so and with your rockets, sorry. and So pretty much you know the satellites they are designing are designed in a way that sort they can be packed as efficiently as possible on the rockets, which means a rocket can send more satellites in one go into the space.
00:03:23
Pablo Tomasi
And another thing that a lot of people seem to forget is that Starlink satellites, they have inter-satellite links, and effectively they are creating a mesh network. around the globe and the the last thing again ah information from their website the latencies median list in the us is 25 millisecond you know everything needs to be taken with a pinch of salt when we talk about this stuff and downlink 200 megabit per second um median again in the us which are some really really good statistics Now um serving more than six million customers, so massive growth and something that has sort of obliterated anything else that we've seen in space so far.
00:04:03
Pablo Tomasi
ah significantly they are still working on on additional innovation. So third generation SAT and ground station, as well as the Starship rocket, which is supposed to be sort of a giant rocket, bringing a lot of stuff into space.
What can Starlink do with EchoStar Spectrum
00:04:16
Pablo Tomasi
Now, one of the reasons why I wanted to do briefly talk about Starlink and satellites is because ah ah they recently, or SpaceX is splashing 17 billion on cash and stock to buy some of EchoStar's spectrum.
00:04:32
Pablo Tomasi
Now, I'm not going to discuss sort of what where is this leaving at EchoStar. You know, you can look at LinkedIn. I made a post about people chopping up EchoStar. But that effectively sort of ending the experiment of...
00:04:44
Pablo Tomasi
for the US to wanting to have ah fourth player. But more interestingly, um alongside this, it filed with the FCC for ah reportedly 15,000 additional satellites to support direct-to-device.
00:04:59
Pablo Tomasi
And idea is that really with this spectrum and so with these developments, we're going to go after the direct-to-device side, direct-to-unmodified device. And this has raised a lot of questions from people of, you know, where does Starlink wants to go?
00:05:13
Pablo Tomasi
And I have a few consideration on this. the The first one is that he's not going to try to replace the the traditional MNO. I cannot see any scenario where Starlink will be happy becoming an MNO.
00:05:26
Pablo Tomasi
And also I cannot see any scenario where Starlink will be happy to buy smaller or even bigger MNOs because and when you buy that, you buy a lot of legacy. And part of what what makes Starlink and SpaceX unique is the lack of that legacy, which is not sort of slowing it down.
00:05:43
Pablo Tomasi
It has that ability to look beyond and and move faster because it doesn't need to think about you know keeping things in the past and then you know reorganize products and all that type of stuff.
Strategic Partnerships
00:05:54
Pablo Tomasi
ah But significantly, it is changing the dynamics that we see in the market, right? So, so far, Starlink was partnering with T-Mobile and on the T-Satellite.
00:06:04
Pablo Tomasi
um Now, as part of the new announcement with EchoStar, EchoStar Boost Mobile customers will be able to access D2D via Starlink. So the way that I see is that sort this becomes a bargaining chip, right?
00:06:18
Pablo Tomasi
yeah Sort of the threat of additional competition, the threat of providing some service to some of their competitors and potentially as the exclusivity with T-Mobile ends,
00:06:29
Pablo Tomasi
Starlink as supporting the Verizon and the ATT of the world. I think that is like the big ah the big bargaining chip that Starlink can play. And that that allows the company probably to get better deals.
00:06:40
Pablo Tomasi
ah Let's not forget that at the end of the day, when you have a lot of satellites that keep spinning the earth, a key priority for you is always to use them as much as you can, not only the US, but then everywhere, because that's how you really make sure that the business model is solid.
Focus on Niche Markets and Starting to Introduce Horror Movies
00:06:56
Pablo Tomasi
But I don't see Starlink becoming traditional player. um And again, another reason is that ah realistically when when do you ever actually use satellite like 99 of your life as an average consumer you are within coverage yes it may be bad coverage but desk coverage will still get priority over connecting to a satellite and yes i heard many people saying oh we're gonna go sort of you know in the wilderness countries That would be like a very good segway by the way, with sort of 80 horror movies of people leaving and going to the country, you know, wrong-torn type of movie and and stuff like that. This actually just came to mind, so nice. Would have been a nice segue. Anyways, but not that many people love hiking in the middle of nowhere, and not that many people are actually constantly going beyond their usual routine.
00:07:49
Pablo Tomasi
So I don't see that as enough of business model for someone to really spend that much money. Now, and my my view is that Starlink will get like very niche markets. And that potentially, again, Tesla just get them with smartphones and get them with connectivity wherever they are.
00:08:06
Pablo Tomasi
That does make sense. Government, of course. big part uh playing within the government side of things with the defense uh but consumer per se getting a Starlink satellite satellite phone or normal phone that goes satellite like i really struggle to see that happening uh personally now said that uh who knows what billionaires think so i may be completely off but we're gonna have to wait a little bit now the other thing that is important So if we're thinking about the timeline, and I remember i had this conversation about private networks for a while, we you know with chipsets coming, and then modules, and then device and testing, blah, blah, blah.
00:08:46
Pablo Tomasi
yeah When someone says two years, two years like the standard time frame that everyone expects for something to develop. but realistically this is not going to happen in two years time like any support for the the spectrum for that direct to device ah requires the chipset and the whole ecosystem of the device to move and make their own strategic choices this will take a much longer time frame so even assuming that sort of dip wants to be that that sort of MNO like play is not going to be a two years I think for them for Starlink is much more powerful being like ah you know it kind of a boogeyman specter of like we could do that therefore as long as sort you provide us alternative of what we want to do we are not going to enter the market in that particular way
00:09:34
Pablo Tomasi
Now, a couple of additional things.
Challenges and Future Competition
00:09:37
Pablo Tomasi
Oh, God, time time is passing really fast. um Why is it changing the game? like Why Starlink and SpaceX have changed the game?
00:09:45
Pablo Tomasi
and No other satellite company has done what they've done. And the fact that it is a LEO company, I think it's ah it's a really important element because Because of the shorter lifespan, they have the ability to refurbish their constellation and and update constellations, you know make changes to the satellites, evolving them, ah not only from a software perspective, but from a hardware perspective. And I think that is really making a ah big difference.
00:10:14
Pablo Tomasi
I already mentioned that it's vertically integrated. And the other point, which ah i think plays a role, at least for now, is that this is a first mover advantage. So to the blue ocean, no one else can can do that at the same pace right now.
00:10:28
Pablo Tomasi
As competition starts of sort of filtering, and then things are going to be slightly different. So we will see what's going to happen.
Conclusion and Audience Engagement
00:10:38
Pablo Tomasi
Now, challenges, ah trying to wrap up in like 30 seconds.
00:10:44
Pablo Tomasi
Well, as I mentioned, the ecosystem, that's really big one. Regulations, you need license. And then again, you need the satellites to be working as much as you can across the globe because they keep ah they keep moving.
00:10:55
Pablo Tomasi
And the other big one that everyone should be worried of is geopolitics. Not everyone will be so happy to be so dependent technology sort of in us and a little bit like kind of unpredictable company so ah that could limit a little bit what Starlink be able to do or maybe the speed at which styling is going to be able to execute what it wants now the this definitely would require it a bit of a longer call uh but i've been traveling quite a bit lately and you know being like a one-man band i realized
00:11:30
Pablo Tomasi
Time is not that much when you're traveling all over the world with your other side of the job. So I think 10 minutes will suffice for that will suffice survive for now. And of course, yeah, very curious to hear your thoughts and, you know, leave the comments.
00:11:44
Pablo Tomasi
Let me know what you think or not. Am I on the mark with Starlink I off the mark? And is Starling potentially an SpaceX being a whole big long-term prep towards the space economy? Is that is that the ultimate goal?
00:11:59
Pablo Tomasi
Or is that just sort of ah another sci-fi novel that, you know, we will have to to wait and see? um let me know. And have a good day. And hopefully next time I'm going to have a little bit more time and should should have another guest as well. So keep mixing and matching.