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Champions League 2024/25 Season Preview: Squads, Probable XIs, Group Fixtures, Predictions, New Format & More (Ep. 454)
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How will Inter Milan, AC Milan, Juventus, Atalanta and Bologna perform in the 2024/25 Champions League?
Carlo Garganese and Nima Tavallaey preview and break down the Serie A teams, squads, lineups, group and fixtures.
We explain the new format of the Champions League and how it works. We offer our favourites to win the Champions League with predictions for winners, top scorer, best player and biggest flop.
Will Real Madrid win the title again? What about Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Barcelona?
PS. This episode is also available as a video on our YouTube page: Youtube.com/@ItaFootPod
This is a bonus preview episode of The Italian Football Podcast which is available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and Google podcasts.
To listen to this & all other full episodes of The Italian Football Podcast (with no ads), go to Patreon.com/TIFP OR now also available on Spotify to become a Patron for only $2.99 USD per month (excluding VAT).
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Transcript
Introduction and Show Overview
00:00:03
Speaker
Welcome to the Italian football podcast. Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Italian football podcast. I'm Carla Garganetti, joined as always by Mattavalli. Today we are doing our special Champions League preview show, previewing the new Champions League season.
New Champions League Format Explained
00:00:19
Speaker
We'll be explaining the new Champions League format, which sees 36 teams in the group stage.
00:00:26
Speaker
all taking part in one big league table. We'll go through and analyze all the squads, fixtures and chances for our Serie A teams in the Champions League.
Focus on Italian Teams in Champions League
00:00:37
Speaker
Five of them altogether this season, Inter, the champions Milan, Juventus, Europa League champions Atalanta and surprise qualifiers Bologna. We'll offer our predictions for all the teams and for the competition as a whole.
00:00:56
Speaker
You can listen to this show on all of our podcast apps as usual, but you can also watch us on YouTube. You can see you can see our faces. but But before we start, and just a reminder to everyone that if you want to become a ah patron and receive all of our content that we do throughout the week, including our Monday review show, our Tuesday Q and&A, our midweek Thursday review show,
00:01:23
Speaker
plus post-match reaction and interviews and and much, much more, then go to patreon dot.com slash TIP and become a subscriber but for just a month. And for those of you who are are watching on on YouTube now, please hit the the subscribe button and give us a like. It it really helps us to do more quality content for you guys.
In-depth Look at New Format and Draw Process
00:01:49
Speaker
Okay then, Nima, so let's start off first with a little explain of how the new Champions League season will will work because it's all different this season, it's been revolutionised, it's the first season in the new format of the league. so Until this season, there there's been 32 teams in in the group group stage divided into to eight eight groups of four. The top two qualified for the last 16 and then it was home and away, knockout-sized till the one of final. um The new format, which comes into into being, is there will be now be 36 teams in the group stage, up from 32, so four more teams.
00:02:29
Speaker
and But the way that it is different is each team will play eight matches in the group stage against eight different teams. Four of these matches will be at home, four of them away, and but they will no longer be home and away matches. It says eight different opponents. ah Each opponent will be faced only once. So two extra matches in the group stage, eight matches up from six. and the The draw for the group stage,
00:02:56
Speaker
and which divided these 36 teams into eight pots. And the the the way that the draw worked is that teams could only play teams from the same league as theirs in the group stage and more than two opponents from from one league, and they drew two teams from each pot. and So that's how the the draw worked. How the group works is
00:03:27
Speaker
Again, until this season, each team was placed in ah in ah in a four-team group, you would play the three opponents home in a way, total of two top two would qualify, third place would go through to the, would would drop down to the Europa League. This time around, um each team plays plays eight matches, but the points earned from these ah these eight matches are, they go into a 36 team league table,
00:03:57
Speaker
and the teams are ranked from first to 36 based on the the points earned from these from these eight matches. um So how does qualification work? Well, the the the top eight teams in this 36 team league table will qualify automatically for the last 16 knockout stage. The teams that are are finishing in ninth to 24th place will qualify for the the last 32 where they will play a home and away knockout time. The team who finish 9th to 16th will be seeded for this this last 32 draw ah and the the teams that finish 17th to 24th will be seeded. Then the the the winners of these last 32 ties will will join the teams who finish first to 8th in the
00:04:50
Speaker
ah in the league table in the last 16 of the the Champions League. ah hopeless I hope that's all clear so far and then from there the two-legged quarter final so and then a one-off final to decide who is the Champions League winner. The the final this year has been played in in Munich. um The teams who finished 25th to 36th in the in the 36th team league table will be eliminated from Europe ah altogether and there will be no ah dropping down to to the Europa League, yeah know as I said, like as has been the case in the previous seasons for teams that finished third in their four team groups. um The other change to the format is there will be no mid-season break in the Champions League this season, so until now there's always been a break from December to February, a two and a half month, two to two and a half month break.
00:05:45
Speaker
and you know that that break was between the groups and the knockouts. This season the matches will continue ah to be played through December and January into February, and with the knockouts again beginning in February. So, no break here, it's non-stop throughout the season, basically, until the end of the season.
00:06:07
Speaker
okay Hey, that explainer, I hope that wasn't too complicated. but sir First of all, NIMA, before we we we go ah through the Italian teams, let me ask you first, do you like the new
Pros and Cons of New Format
00:06:23
Speaker
format? What do you think of the new format?
00:06:25
Speaker
I have to be, well before we begin, I have to say I'm wearing a t-shirt that our patron Art Morelle made, a tribute to Sopranos, um which if you listen to the last pod we did, where where his little shop was nuked by Juventus' legal team, I felt I had to represent him today. um I have to say I like this I like this format. I think there was it was time for a change. I was a little bit skeptical going into it. But when I saw the draw and they the way that they drawed it and the way that they showed it out, and well, first of all, they made the draw 100 times better because I hated watching people you know people opening up balls. It's just boring. It was absolutely boring to watch. This was much more exciting. It made it like you you wanted to watch it until the end.
00:07:14
Speaker
And I like the format. I like that it's not just groups. I like that everyone can play anyone only you know within certain you know there's certain restrictions in place. But i do I like the format. I like the group stage format. I like that it's not home and away. I like that it's one off, eight games. And then you know the top eight go to the round of 16. The others, you're in the middle, you have to play a again, to reach that. um I think this the the competition needed it. this was good for for This was good for the competition, in my opinion.
00:07:48
Speaker
I'm strictly looking at the Champions League, from a Champions League perspective, I think it's it's good. I think it was a freshening um that it needed, an update that it needed, because it it was starting to feel stale. But of course, there are negative side effects that they're not addressing, and that is more games, more games every three days, players getting burned out, and so on and so forth.
00:08:14
Speaker
I think that that from the positive point of view, there is there's more money for the teams, more matches against more teams because there's eight different opponents. So like you said, you're you're seeing more diversity. um you know You've seen lots more games between teams that sometimes you you don't get to see those matches. And from a financial point of view, it's good for the for the for the for the clubs. um From a negative point of view, I think the biggest negative is there's there's there's too many games.
00:08:44
Speaker
for players already as it is. And now we're adding another, you know, two to four matches a season, plus all the extra traveling. You've got the Club World Cup also at the end of the season, which is, I mean, it's just going to be exhausting for the players. There's no break at all in the season at all. There's not going to be a break virtually maybe a few weeks before the season starts.
00:09:11
Speaker
25, 26 season, and then at the end of that 20, 25, 20 season, you're going to have the World Cup. And we saw in the Euros, the level of the quality of the football was, was general, with the exception of maybe Spain. It was really bad for players looked exhausted. There was no energy, no intensity. And also that there's obviously the injury situation. and we We, as an Italian football, Italian football, that the number of injuries at the moment and is ridiculous. The number of ACL injuries, that the number of muscle is you know and the number of games is playing a massive role in that. so So I think that is something that is is is a big concern. is it's It's obvious to me why this new format was brought in, and that is as a reaction to the Super League, because the Super League was really for financial reasons more than anything, and control and power, but financial reasons, they wanted more money, the big clubs. So this is a ah way of of
00:10:11
Speaker
but of you know compromising a little bit for that. So so yeah, I mean, some good and some bad. and But it's good, I think, because we're going to see more matches against more opponents. and And that's a good thing. Well, I mean, again, it's like it depends on the perspective you have from the perspective of just the Champions League. I think this was the ah a freshening up of things was long overdue. It was getting stale and the group stages just felt so boring.
00:10:43
Speaker
um Now it does feel more exciting um and and also the knockout stage as well. So um um um I think from that perspective it's positive but like you said again more matches, more more more games, more more pressure on on the players and I think the only way to get around that um is to increase the squad sizes.
00:11:05
Speaker
um that's the only thing. We have to have an increase of squad sizes. um from you know They have to give more leeway ah for wages because I think we we need to have somewhere like 25, 27 players, like first team players now because it's just not going to be enough because between international football, between club football,
00:11:30
Speaker
an 11 month season for teams that are participating in the World Club World Cup. It's just, you know, 10, 11 month season. That's insane. um So we're going to need bigger squads because these 23, 24 guys just can't handle it. They're going to. I mean, can you just imagine if you've been in to go far in the Champions League after having gone far in the Copa Italia, played the Super Copa, played 38 games in the Serie A. Do you have any I mean, can you just imagine how how Lautaro and Vlawic are going to look in June, July when they reach the champion. I mean, they're going to be they're going to be exhausted, absolutely exhausted. And the quality is going to suffer as a result, and we're going to have more injuries. So i I do think that this, you know, I understand they want to play more games, but then they have to increase the sizes of the squads. It's that simple. You can't have one or the other. You need to increase them.
00:12:26
Speaker
Yeah, for sure. But that that also brings on added problems as well. Do du certain teams and squads have the resources to have bigger
Inter's Challenging Draw and Strategy
00:12:37
Speaker
squads? and And if they do, what will the quality be like? And does that just benefit the big ah clubs even more? And then you know then there's the problem with training. and Any coach you know trying to trying to train a squad of of of went 30 players. I mean, look at Chelsea. I was just about to say look at Chelsea. Look at Chelsea. Yeah, Chelsea are doing is showing that. Yeah, yeah. but and Okay, well, let's let's work our way now through the the Italian teams and break break down their teams, their
00:13:11
Speaker
the the the group one I'm going to say the group, but it's not a group anymore. They're opponents that they'll be playing. and And let's see ultimately how well each of the Italian teams will be. So starting with Inter. Let's start with the group. oh Again, um I'm going to have to get used to not saying that. um Let's have a look at the opponents. There are eight opponents they'll be playing. So in order, in date order of of when they're playing, Manchester City to start with. Then Red Star Belgrade, Young Boys, Arsenal, Leipzig,
00:13:42
Speaker
Levakusin, Sparta Prague, and finishing off against Monaco. what do you What do you think of that of of that draw, Verinto? Is that a good draw? A bad draw?
00:13:56
Speaker
um i I think it's quite a tough draw. i mean Arsenal and City are the two best teams in the Premier League, so that's not going to be easy. um But then you also have Liverpool and Leipzig, which I think are tricky. you know I think it's going to be tricky. so no There's not much margin of error here for the finish in the top eight.
00:14:20
Speaker
So yeah, no, I think it's a tricky draw. I mean, it could have been easier. Let's put it that way. Leipzig and Liverpool and reigning German champions. Double champions. They won the double last season. Your city, an Arsenal. And Leipzig, you are a tricky site. So no, I think this is a very tricky draw. It's not easy at all.
00:14:40
Speaker
No, it's I mean, in to have to win those those gimmies, the games against Red Star, Young Boys and Sparta Prague, those are non-negotiable. And then they're probably going to need. I mean, I think if you get four wins, you're probably going to qualify for you're going to qualify for the last 32, but then it depends. Yeah.
00:15:01
Speaker
if you if you want to try and get into that top eight and then you you're going to have to start winning some of those those bigger matches. Let's look at into squad. Just to be clear, UEFA rules state that a maximum of 25 can be included on the on the A list and eight of those, when I say A list, that's that's basically players, let's just to simplify. that Basically players, let's call it that. and Eight of those must be locally trained and or homegrown, and at least four must be a session trained, which means come through the club's academy. and So um I'm not going to read out that the the entire inter-squad. The points of note are that Thomas Palacios, the new sign-in, and Joaquin Correa have been a
00:15:55
Speaker
have been left out, but Buchanan is in despite his his ah his long injury absence. If we look at the probable 11 that enter, well, let's I'm going to say probable 11, I'm going to say strongest 11, and this won't necessarily be the team that will play the first game, but it's the team that generally we would call the strongest team. So, we're looking at Somain goal, 3-5-2 formation, Pavard, Achebe, and Bastoni as centre-backs, Dami and Barela,
00:16:23
Speaker
Chalanoglu, Makatarian, DiMarco across the the midfield and then Taraman Lautaro up front. So where are the strengths? What are the strengths, would you say, based on the squad, the team and and in general? Continuity. It's a group of players where all the important pieces have stayed, extended, pledged their future to the project.
00:16:52
Speaker
um under a manager who knows them really well and who they enjoy working with and who they follow. um Unity, they're very united. They believe in what they do. There's clarity and continuity, like I said. And there's very clear roles as to how they play and who does what and when. And the fact that Inter are, well, they now have the experience having won as much as they won in Italy, but also having played a european two European finals, Europa League and Champions League. Most of these players were there and for both of those.
00:17:28
Speaker
um So, you know, it's it's the the so there's the experience, the pedigree they are. like I said, kind continuity, they know each other really well, um the tactical continuity, but also, um I think it's it's a team that is so difficult to defend against because Inter can hurt you in very many different ways. They're not, they don't, they just, you know, it's, if you defend, you know, if you want to, they they can attack you playing Calcio Articale, Contre Calcio Articale, they know how to do that.
00:18:01
Speaker
they can defend, they can beat you by playing in Zagi's favored horizontal vertical expansive triangles where they pull you out of position and they themselves you have positional shifts like that's like a dance you know you have a Cherby going up to central you know as a number nine Laotaro dropping as a midfielder Barilla going out why I mean it's just it's it's it's it's a dance they swarm teams in the final third And they're defensively solid. They're a team that knows how to defend. So they are a very complete team tactically and qualitatively. And now they also have depth and attack, um something they didn't last season. So for me, I know that Inter are looking at, they wouldn't say it themselves outwardly, but they are they there is a they they are prioritizing this Champions League because they think they fancy their chances to go on and win it.
00:18:59
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, i think that I think the quality is there. As you said, very complete. the The experience is there and that's important. You know, this is a team that's been to the Champions League final and that will gives them pedigree, but also gives them a hunger and ah and a will to but revenge, to try and, you know, to to try and go one step further. and Once you've had a taste of but of of success, um even though if it wasn't quite success, then that you want it more and And for that reason, you know I think but it's the same in terms of weaknesses though, NIMA, if there is something that the that could hold them back in this Champions League, the defence agent starting to age a little bit, could that be the biggest banana skin, maybe?
00:19:54
Speaker
Yes, because Francesco Acherbi isn't getting any younger. And I think already last season, I saw some, I think I saw some some signs of decline. Stefan de Frei isn't, even though he's improved, compared to two three seasons two seasons ago, he's not the player he once was when he was when he was named the Serie A defender of the year. So the central central backs, the central central defence is ageing. And that is a problem.
00:20:22
Speaker
But they have kind of begun to address that with Thomas Palacios coming obviously not for the Champions League, but he's a player they believe in for the future. He's very big, he's very tall. Bastoni we've seen for Italy can play that. So they have started to address it, but this season in the Champions League it's going to be a cherry be potentially B-Sec, young B-Sec, the young German defender who's been very good but since joining into last season. um So that is a weakness, yes. how you know Because when the thing is, when that decline begins, it goes off a cliff. It's not gradual. it's You can see it. We've seen it with Handanovic. We saw it with Defray. I'm wondering, can Acherebe do it for one more season? And that's the key here. Yeah, I agree with that. And I would also say, um I wouldn't call this a weakness, but I would i would say it's something
00:21:19
Speaker
that Simon Inzaghi probably needs to needs to look at himself is that I'm i'm adamant that Inzaghi being too pragmatic was a was one of the was one of the reasons that that cost Inter. I mean, when Inter went out against the plexico Madrid we did a really big pod where we broke down about eight or nine reasons why they went out and all of those played a part in Inter's exit. One of the biggest reasons for me was Inzaghi being too pragmatic in that second leg in Madrid where he he basically just defended and tried to counter-attack. I want to see and insert that when they are in those situations again this season, ah they are more front footed and they don't sit back, especially against teams who they are better than. If it's a team that is on their level and you're away or that is better than them, like say like a man city, then that's understandable.
00:22:15
Speaker
but I can't accept that against better than. So I think that's something that, yeah, Inzagi needs to try and correct and this season. and And the other thing is, if we're talking about a weakness, is that also I think that into Mr. Big Chance last season, when I think it was one of the weakest Champions Leagues that there has been in time with the the Premier League teams really not being a particularly good quality at all in last season competition. Whereas I think this season, three of the four English teams ask Liverpool as well as obviously Man City are all going to be very, very strong. They're going to be all going to be really top teams and that's going to make it much, much more difficult so to go and win the competition. Whereas that wasn't the case last season. It really was just City that I think were but real contenders from the Premier League team. So that is a bit of a, yeah, that's something extra that I think
00:23:07
Speaker
that a team like Inso has ambitions to win the Champions League. That's an extra hurdle or two extra hurdles they'll have to overcome that will make it more difficult to win it and this season.
00:23:18
Speaker
I think the most important. No, just before we get to that, just one thing, though. In Zaghi last season, he didn't get his rotations right from the offset. It's incredibly imperative for him to get his rotations right, to get his rotation, squad rotation right. He has lots of options. He didn't have as many, you could say, in attack last season, but he does have them this season, and he needs to utilize it wisely. He needs to keep everybody fresh. He can't have Fratezi.
00:23:46
Speaker
and Zielinski rotting on the bench. He just can't have that. Or Aslany rotting on the bench. He needs to trust them. And Inter don't have starters. as I mean, they like to say, we don't have starters. We have 24 players all competing for 11 spots, almost as good as one another.
00:24:01
Speaker
Well he needs to show that he understands that he can rotate properly um because that's been something that has been a bit of a weakness as in Zaghi. I disagree a little bit about that the the the pragmatictist pragmatism of last season against that political Madrid. I think Inter created more than enough chances in both legs to win 4-5-0 but the problem was the depth, Arnautovic missed three sitters scored one. Taram was injured for the first game, came back for the second, wasn wasn't exactly the same Taram that we see when he's fully fit and missed quite a few sitters as well. So I think it's more down to that. we need I need an input to be cynical in the Italian sense of the word in football, when in those decisive moments in the knockout stages of the Champions League, and I need Inzaghi to get his rotations right between league and the Champions League.
00:24:51
Speaker
And Lautaro especially needs to step up. Lautaro lataro needs to this is this is this is the this is make or break a little bit for Lautaro. This is his inter, he's shown it domestically. He's he's done it for Argentina.
00:25:06
Speaker
Now it's for him to show that he can do it for Inter in the Champions League. He has scored important goals. big game He's a big game player, but he hasn't scored enough and has consistently in Europe's top competition. And he knows that. So I think he will be focused on the Champions League ah more than the Serie A this season, which is also why I have Turam scoring 20 goals on the Serie A and not him. Okay.
00:25:33
Speaker
Right, prediction time. So but we'll do two predictions. First of all, group stage and then overall. So starting off with the group stage, I'll go first. um I'm sure Inter will qualify. ah Certainly, I think they they're going to be in the top 24. There's no no doubt, little doubt about that in my mind. Top 16, I'm pretty confident that they will get in the top 16, which would mean being seeded for the last 32 draw.
00:26:03
Speaker
wherever they can get in the top eight, I mean, I think it's difficult to get in that top eight. You need to, you know, you need to, you need to have a really good, really, really good, you know you need to win probably five, five or six of your, of your AT being in that that top eight. And that's not easy, you know. So I think that the Arsenal and Lebakus in games will decide whether Inter can beat in that, in that top eight, because the Man City game, ah I think it's obviously going to be very difficult.
00:26:32
Speaker
but it won't be decisive for me. So I'm going to say top 16 for Inter. I have them somewhere 8-9-10 somewhere there, but yeah, for the short top 16, but 8-9-10, 7-8-9-10 somewhere there in the group stage or the league stage, we should rather say. Yeah, yes, yes. Overall, so where are Inter going to finish altogether in this Champions League? I have quarter-finals, semi-finals.
00:27:03
Speaker
I have quarter-final, semi-final. Minimum has to be quarter-final. They have to reach the quarter-final this season. But from then on, it's the luck of the draw, isn't it? I mean, it depends who you face and who you face and where you are and injuries and stuff like that. But minimum quarter-final for sure, they have to go there. They have to reach that. It would be a failure otherwise. Is there any word? Let's move on, though, to Milan, Team Milan.
00:27:32
Speaker
and First of all, they're eight opponents, so we have Liverpool in order, Bayer Leverkusen, Club Ruge, Real Madrid, Slován Bratislava, Red Star Belgrade, Girona and Dinamo Zagreb. I think this is but this is a really, really good draw for but for Milan. um Yes, they have Liverpool at home, Bayer Leverkusen away, Real Madrid away, so that's three really, really tough opponents.
00:27:58
Speaker
but I mean, I look at their other five games. I mean, Dinamo Zagreb, Red Star, Belgrade, Slovend Bratislava, Club Bruges at home. I mean, that's you couldn't handpick for better opponents, really. And then Girona at home, a Girona team who have have lost most of their their best from last season. I mean, I think that in terms of qualification, there's there's no excuse whatsoever. It will be a huge, huge failure if Milan can not only and can't qualify, but they should be getting into the top 16 at the minimum and with with with the draw that they've with the draww that they with draw that they've got. Would you agree with that? Oh, 100%. Not only that, I'd say they have a good shot with this draw to finish in the top eight.
00:28:44
Speaker
i mean I think, okay, Liverpool and Real Madrid, Liverpool, fantastic teams, but the rest, but that's 15 points. They have to get a minimum 15 points because those other five teams are just, they're not as good as Milan. They're just not. um and and And so though they need 15 points from there. So, and then you look at Liverpool, Real Madrid, okay, Real Madrid, I don't expect anyone to, you know, it's Real Madrid. You can't count on anything. but I'm not as sold on Liverpool as people are. I think they're a good side, but I'm not as sold on them as as they are. I think they're gonna, I don't see them challenging for the Champions League or the Premier League trophy this season. I think this is a little bit of a transitional year for them. But Liverpool then is gonna be tricky as hell. um So I think 17, 18 points is the target. And if they get that, well, out of a 24, they should be in contention for top eight even.
00:29:42
Speaker
I agree. I agree completely. Milan's squad, or they're probably 11, from their squad, the the big absentee is Jovic, and he was replaced by by Tammy Abraham. He was a ah late sign-in. Other than that, not not too much really to it's a note from Milan's squad, other than you know they've got a lot of really, really talented youngsters who will be on the B-list. The B-list allows you to pick players who who are underage players. I'm not'm not sure if it's what's the actual ah age. I think it's under 21, I think. I will confirm that when we get to Juventus, because I did make a note, because youve but Juventus have got quite a few players officially on their B-list. and But they've got players like Camarda, Liberale, Zeroli, these kind of players from their Milan Futuro team were very, very talented players who could also be used if ah if desperate. so
00:30:38
Speaker
Milan have ah have a big squad, a deep squad, but they're probable 11, or again, they' they're they're best 11, is Mike Manion. In a 4-2-3-1, it would be ah Emerson or Calabria. Then in the centre of the fence, Tomori and Pavlovic, or Tomori and Tial, and Ontario Hernandez at left back. The two holding midfielders, we're probably looking at for Fana and the new signing from Monaco and Reinders.
00:31:03
Speaker
And then the three, Trécortiste, Pudasic, Loftuscik and Raphael, and then Alvaro Morata as the lone striker. So, Nima, again, what do we see as Milan's strengths from their their squad, from their team and and in general?
00:31:25
Speaker
I think it's, again, it's it's it's similar to Intel in the sense that this is a group of players that have been together for quite some time. They know each other really well. um The additions that have come in, like, you know, Tammy Abraham Morata, they suit that football. They're very mobile, dynamic players and Milan want to play a very modern dynamic movement-based football and high intensity football, high press. So I think i think they're a very cohesive side. um The question mark for me, which we'll get to, is is whether or not Paolo Fonseca can get them to understand what he wants them to do, ah which is a separate thing. But you know I think the the draw looks good for them like we've been through.
00:32:14
Speaker
And also, of course, you know you have match winners like Teo, like Liao, like Morata, who can win games on their own. And that that that's important in in these big competitions and big games. Liao has a talent that is golden. it's His talent is diamond.
00:32:33
Speaker
um but kind the problem has been with him of course is that he can't seem to make it ah show it as consistently and often as we would like and Milan fans would like because you know unfortunately he's not that at that level yet I still think he can be and I hope that this could be the season for him in Europe where he shows off exactly what a diamond he is Teo, one of the best left-back, if not you know amongst the best left-backs in the world, full-backs in the world on the left side is unbelievable. Morata, incredible experience, leadership. so um And Reinde, I think, is going to be kind of a standout player this season, a breakout player for further themore for the more neutrals. It's a very important player. So they have a cohesive unit. They have a cohesive team that knows each other well.
00:33:24
Speaker
the the The issues for me is, can Fonseca get them to understand what yeah what it is he wants them to do? Yeah, I think that from the strengths, in terms of strengths, the group, they've got a great draw as we've we've been through already, um but so they do have individuals that that can rise to the big occasion. The likes of Rafael Liao, Teo Hernandez, you know these players,
00:33:46
Speaker
They love the big stage. And so that's always a chance. But I also think that they have decent experience as well in their team. I mean, they got the they had the run to the Champions League semi-final a couple of years ago. But if you actually look through their squad, they've got players who have been on the big stage and played these big tournaments and big matches. You know, Manon, Tomori, Poulasic, you know, theres there's a lot of experience. You know, Chelsea, Bruce, the Adortment at this stage, Loftus Cheek going back to his Chelsea days.
00:34:16
Speaker
Rafael Lial now has built up a good experience and Morata, of course, I mean, one of the most experienced players has won it all everywhere, you know, for all the biggest teams in Europe, ah Chelsea, Juventus, Real Madrid. So, I mean, it's is that is important in the Champions League and that gives them, that that will definitely give them give them something something extra, I think. um Weaknesses though, NIMA, is,
00:34:47
Speaker
We're recording this at a time when, but but we' we're recording this before Milan's last look before their first Champions League match against Liverpool. And as we were recording, Milan are in a crisis at the moment, two points from their first three games in Serie A. But even more so, the dressing room problems, Raffae, Liao, Teo, Hernandez incident, which everybody knows about now, where but they refused see to allegedly refused, but I mean, look, everybody saw it, ah to to to come over and join the rest of the squad for a cooling break in the game against Laksij stood on the other side of the pitch but by themselves as ah as ah as a alleged form of protest against being dropped by Paolo Fonseca. And, you know, the squad, those two players in particular are getting a hammer in at the moment, the the the environment, it doesn't seem to be great at the moment.
00:35:46
Speaker
And the team are playing terrible. You know, tactically, they don't seem to understand what Fonseca wants. um the the They on a lot of goals and so many chances. I mean, it's a mess at the moment at Milan. And there's big pressure on Fonseca. You know, that the if they were to lose their opening game against Liverpool, and then they play into a few days later in the in the Derby, Fonseca really does risk the sack. So this is a Milan team that there is a lot of pressure on them. There's question marks, but for me the question marks are more around Fonseca and his ability to get this team to work the way he wants it to work. Like I said in my previous point, than it is I think of Milan as a team. ah I don't think there's very many question marks around Milan in terms of
00:36:36
Speaker
what they are and who they are, the question maybe be as to how high they can finish in the Serie A and are they Escudeta Contender? I'm not quite sure they're there yet, but I do think that they are a in terms of who they are and and how they want to play, that they're a very modern,
00:36:54
Speaker
high-intensity possession-based fluid team. My issue is rests squarely with Fonseca, which are doubts I've had about him since he was appointed and even but before that, after his tenure at Roma. And I have question marks around him and the solidity defensively. And and also in terms of can he get this Milan team to understand what he wants them to do, and does he have the players to execute that football, especially in the defensive phase? I'm not sure. I'm not saying they do. I'm not saying they don't. I just, I think it's a big question mark. And I do think he's risking a sack. Yes, I do think he's risking a sack. I don't think Milan will, you know, s sack him just like that, because it would also make themselves, they would also
00:37:49
Speaker
show that they themselves, the people in charge, have made a huge eff up. And I'm not too sure they're willing to concede that too easily. But you get hammered by Liverpool if you get hammered in the Derby. And this rut continues. They don't win against Venezia. I mean, we're recording this before the Venezia game. We could very much have a situation where Fonseca is sacked. But the problem is,
00:38:17
Speaker
There's so many games every three days before the next international break. Who do you appoint? Do you just bring Peole back? Because he's under contract, isn't he? So I mean, what do you do? um So it can potentially get really ugly. But my question marks are not about the dressing room. I think Liao and Teo and I think they've resolved all that internally.
00:38:39
Speaker
It wasn't a good look, don't get me wrong, but I think they resolved it. My issue is Ponceca and the team, can he get them to do what they want what he wants them to do and are they able to? That's where I have my question marks, tactically. Yeah, if we if we look at the team in terms of individuals, I think there are still some gaps in the team. I think right back is the is the biggest problem area. love I mean, in Calabria, and as as a number of people have said, Milan managed to go out and sign a player for 20 million who is who is a downgrade on Calabria in Emerson Royale. I've been told if that is the is the case, but having watched Emerson Royale at Tottenham for for a number of years, then yes,
00:39:27
Speaker
yes I'm not a fan. I haven't been a fan of the player. and I think the balance in sense of midfield continues to be a bit of an issue and as well. I think that has been a, has been a problem as Nima gets his vape out.
00:39:43
Speaker
and um This is what I hate about doing videos, because when we're doing audios, I can sit in like, you know, when I get my vape out and, you know, I don't even know you vape. I don't even know you vape. Don't do it, kids. Don't do it, kids. I don't know what you've been vaping for.
00:40:00
Speaker
ah well with you know for a while okay okay yeah i think listen i think the balance in senate midfield is is a bit of an issue um we've seen that we saw musa come out after the second game when they lost to parman said that we we don't know we still don't understand when to press and when to when to sit back uh you know which is very concerning that he said comments like that and um so i think that i think that has been an issue ever since tenali left actually that the balance in senate midfield between when between
00:40:32
Speaker
ah Even as a unit, I don't think Milan have a great central midfield unit working as a team. Working as a team in general has been a problem for Milan for quite a while. They don't play as a team, they don't play, they don't have units, the defensive unit as a back four. The central midfield working as partnerships over the field, the they yeah especially centrally. That is a fragmented. I agree with that. It's a bit fragmented. It's like three different parts of the team. not what and I know what you mean. I agree with that. I think the the defense works just the defense, but the cooperation with the central midfield sometimes looks a bit like they're two different areas of departments at a company trying to communicate and they can't. And in in and that is a problem. Yeah. and
00:41:20
Speaker
see as well. I mean that has been a problem for Milan. night You know they can can pull out a great performance and then just that they're a team that I feel like you can never bank on. Haven't been able to bank on for for quite a while ah Milan and i that's all we hear. And so when we look at some of these weaker opponents that we think on paper they should be sweeping away but who knows. But let's do the prediction now though never to finish off my laps, first of all, I think they will qualify. um I think that they've got such a good draw. it's It seems impossible for them not to qualify even with Fonseca. Even if Fonseca is struggling um and they continue to struggle in Serie A, I think they'll qualify. Top 16, I really think they should be qualifying in the top 16 looking at this draw, so they're at least seeded for the knockouts. But I like you. I think with a bit of luck, top eight should be
00:42:17
Speaker
achievable. It should be achievable. I'm not saying they'll get it, but it's it's there for them to take. That's exactly it. And it's a little bit reminiscent like of last season in the sense that last season they were in the night, they were in the group of death. But if you look at those six games performance by performance, I maintain that they should have won that group. I thought Milan were good enough to win that group. in you know the loss they They didn't go through. But in my opinion, if they had had a little bit of more killer instinct in decisive moments, they could have won that group. And here they have an easier group. It's there for the taking, is the and and analogy I'm making. It was there for the taking.
00:42:58
Speaker
last season when they went into all of those games here it absolutely is there for the taking I'm looking at Milan I look at these games I'm saying minimum they already they should the 15 points have to be in the bank then if they can get another two three points that's 18 that puts them in contention to finish in the top eight even which is where I have them yeah 18 points okay I think if you can if you get so if you get 18 points you'll be you'll be top eight I think um overall though where where' do you think Milan how far do Well, since I have them in the top eight, they should be getting an easier draw in the last 16. So quarterfinal. OK, I'm going to go last 16. I'm going to say last 16 finished. But as always, it depends on the draw, doesn't it, in the knockouts. Let's move to Juventus now. Juventus is eight opponents.
00:43:53
Speaker
they have ah Starting in PSV, Leipzig, Stuttgart, Lille, Aston Villa, Manchester City, Club Bruges and Benfica. So this is an interesting draw, this is for me, because there's two ways of looking at this for your vendors. First of all, you can look at it and you can say, well, there's only really, really tough team in that, and that is Manchester City, of course, at home on December the 11th. The other way of looking at it is,
00:44:24
Speaker
Apart from Club Bruges, there's no gimmes like there was there was in the Milan group with you know with the likes of Redstar and Dino Mozagreb and these kind of level teams. There's no gimmes. So every game that I think that the Juventus will play, they'll have to they'll have to play to win. They can't just turn up and and and get and just have an easy win. So it depends how you want to look at this. I think if Juventus play a good group stage, that's the kind of draw that on paper gives them a chance to even potential pay. But it's also the kind of group where if they have a bad group stage, they could even end up not qualifying because because every single game is, is you know, is's there's no gimmies there, I think, apart from Club Bruges. So is that the way that you the way that you would look at it?
00:45:16
Speaker
No, I think they have one outstanding opponent in Citi, two tricky ones in Leipzig and Aston Villa. Eindhoefen and Briga, they should beat easily. Lille Stuttgart, I mean, with all due respect to Lille Stuttgart, they should overcome that. I mean, you can't net spend the way that Juventus have.
00:45:36
Speaker
and tell me that they shouldn't, well, potentially have six wins, one draw and one loss in this game with this group of runner fixtures. Because, I mean, again, life is tricky, Villa is tricky, but I do think Juventus have enough quality who oversee to to overcome them.
00:45:56
Speaker
um City, you can't really, you know, city or city, but the rest, they're all winnable games. um Okay. There are no gimmes or there are no, you know, you know, joke teams. So if you want to, whatever you want to call it, but they're all beatable. And I don't think you can, I mean, I look at the quality of you, the the quality that they brought in.
00:46:18
Speaker
they have to, they have to have six wins here. I just ah just can't draw away against Aston Villa because that's a difficult, Villa Park is a difficult place difficult place to go. But other than that, six wins one draw, that's what I'm expecting from you. Yeah, I'll come on afterwards when we look at strengths and weaknesses, why why I think this will be more difficult for Juventus than maybe on paper it seems. Juventus squad, ah there's no most of the players left out other than, well, Kostich, who is in negotiations as we're recording to to to leave the club, to go to Turkey. Fenner Batche just released a statement saying they're essentially in advanced talks with him. Yeah, there you go. Yeah. So so apart from Kostich, everybody else that's at the club, even Arthur Mello is in ah he' in the squad. And so so there's no there's real surprises with the squad. But as
00:47:18
Speaker
As I said before, b there are a number of of of youngsters talented youngsters that have been included in the list B. and so Just to clarify on that, as ah as I mentioned before with Milad, clubs can name an unlimited number of players on their B list as long as they are born on or later than January 1st, 2003. They'll be very young. twenty three three Three-year-olds running around on the pitch.
00:47:43
Speaker
as long as as Longbob's books for an uninterrupted period of two years. That means that next-gen graduates like Yildiz, Samuel and Mbangula can be on the B-list, which provides for more so play more space for players on this day. So on list B, Juventus have included Yildiz, Savona, Ruhi and Mbangula, who have all played for the for the for the first thing this season. So that's the squad. Probable 11 or best 11,
00:48:16
Speaker
De Gregorio, right back, I think it will be Kalulu, eventually, will become the the starting starting right back. But at the moment, it's been Savona that's played there. Cambiaso is also has also played there as well. The centre backs, I think, will be Gatti and Bremme, but there's a chance that Kalulu could could play as a centre back next to Bremme as well. And then on the left back, it will be Cambiaso or Cabal. Those will be the left back choices.
00:48:45
Speaker
In center midfield, lots of options. This is Juventus' strongest area of the pitch. So Taram and Douglas Luiz, I think, eventually, once they've bedded in, will be the first choice center midfielders. But there is, of course, Fagioli and Locatelli as options as well. Then on the right wing, it's really out of Gonzalez and and Chico Consezal. And then the the number 10 or the the AMC will be Kukminers. And then the left winger, Yildiz. And up front is Dusan Wlawic.
00:49:14
Speaker
so If we start with Juventus' strengths, I've already gone through the group about why I think it could be good, it could be not so good, but sir the other strengths, if we're looking at the squad and the players, the midfield for sure, very, very strong midfield. I think it's one of the stronger midfields in Europe. If we look at the hole, the depth as well, you know, it's not just Turan, Douglas-Louis, Cook miners, there's also
00:49:46
Speaker
Locatelli, there's a jolly and then, you know, Arthur Mello, McKinney is sixth and seventh choice is not bad for sixth and seventh choice. You know, so anybody else that can come into midfield. So the midfield is very, very strong. They've got an excellent if they've done great work on the market with with ah with the midfield. That's number one. Number two is the Tiago Motta. Tiago Motta, of course, is is one of the most talented young coaches in in all of Europe.
00:50:16
Speaker
what he did with Bologna last season was was absolutely magnificent. You can see that this is a very, very special coach, plays modern football, but wants to to dominate the possession and the territory, which is conducive generally to success in Europe. Teams that are ah front footage generally do better today in modern times. So I think Mota will be will be very, very useful as well. And I think the enthusiasm also of being back in Europe is is is good for you, Vince. The fact that they are you know they were out of Europe last season and this is a chance of of you know of revenge. They've been they've been bad. and you
00:50:56
Speaker
but for a while and and they they want to prove themselves. The crowd are back with them as well now that there's a new manager. So that enthusiasm I think well will help. and What else do you see as going into Juventus' favour this season? I agree with everything you said. The only thing I want to add is they have a structural defensive solidity put in place by Thiago Mota, which is crazy. um they They barely concede shots on goal.
00:51:23
Speaker
um So far, I mean, it's still a small sample size, but so far we've seen them barely concede shots on goal, much less goals. They're very, very structurally sound defensively. Thiago Mota is pragmatic in the sense that he has an identity going forward, but he's doesn't he's not crazy. He doesn't go gung-ho. He's very solid. It is safety first, but it's just that he also has ah very modern solutions when attacking as well.
00:51:51
Speaker
And he's very calm, very cool, very controlled, very old school Juventus, the way that Juventus talk about Los Stilha Juva, the traditional Juventus. This kind of all is well, stay calm, keep calm, you know, let's just focus on what we're doing, systematic approach. um and and And that is, I really think that they are going to be a difficult side to break down. I think Juventus I mean, I have them winning the Serie A, and I think the Juventus are back. I think the Juventus that are going to fight for trophies domestically um and and and abroad is back. I don't think they're going to win the Champions League, but I do think that they're going to be a very difficult team to break down. And I'm particularly keen to see how they face Pep Guardiola's Manchester City. That will be a very interesting game, absolutely.
00:52:40
Speaker
between the coaches more than more than more than anything else. But if we talk about Juventus' weaknesses, ah looking at the Champions League in particular, more so than the Serie A, I think inexperience is undoubtedly, for me, the the big one. Champions League experience is absolutely huge. It doesn't matter how good you are domestically. Champions League is a whole new ball game. you know um with that When that ah anthem plays before the game, being able to to to so handle the travelling of going to to big stadiums around you with the crowds and the bright lights at night. It's absolutely huge. And and you know do the maths yourself, guys. Have a look at Juventus' start in 11 or look at their squad in general. Have a look at how many games these players have played in the Champions League. They've hardly played any. There's there's very few exceptions of players with with decent Champions League experience. The likes of Danilo, Arthur Mello, probably the two two biggest exceptions. and And they're not even starters. Arthur's not going even played.
00:53:40
Speaker
And Danilo is not really somebody that's in the, is in the ideas and plans of, of, of the, of the coach, Thiago Motta. So, you know, Juventus are, it, it, it, it takes time to build up experience. And I think that is why Juventus, that is definitely going to count against Juventus quite a lot.
00:54:01
Speaker
in the champion. If it counts against them in the group stage, when there's that enthusiasm and the teams are a little bit weaker, but I think definitely later on in the competition, once you get to the knockout stages and strategy and the game, when the game's on the knife edge and when you're put under pressure and the game is, you know, one goal either way and you're or you're defending the lead or, or your, your, whether to, to, to, to chase or whether to hold, you know, that kind of thing, that is where experience comes in. And that is going to definitely, without a doubt is going to is going to play against Juventus. But that's OK. That's to be expected. That's not something that we should really criticise them later on in the line. But I think that that is definitely the the biggest weakness is the the lack of experience.
00:54:44
Speaker
That is true. and you want to um yeah Did you want to come on that? Yeah, yeah but I agree with all of that. um it's But that comes in play in the latter stages, in the knockout stages. I think in the league stages, in the league stage, I think they, like I said, I have them on somewhere on six wins, one draw, which is brings them 18-19 points.
00:55:04
Speaker
So I have them finishing in the top eight. And I think that that will also give them a little bit of an advantage to to not play that extra game and perhaps even be seeded in the round last 16. So now I have Juve, Milan and Inter reaching a quarterfinal.
00:55:21
Speaker
Um, I even have you as a potential dark horse finalist. I don't think they're going to win it, but if everything falls in place, because no, I do. I think this is a very tricky side. This is a very, very tricky side to play against and they are very balanced.
00:55:36
Speaker
um I look at that squad, I don't really see very many weaknesses. I look as i look at a, I see a team that has a very clear identity and players that suit that identity with the right draw and if, you know, with with Wlawicz,
00:55:53
Speaker
becoming the player that Juventus paid for him to become, which I think he will, I see them, they can they can they have ah they can go really deep in this competition. I really think so. Yeah, listen, I think Vlalvic is definitely a key one, and because we've just seen, since since he's joined from Juventus, since he joined from Fiorentina, pushing on three years now, he has a player the that we expected and that everybody expected him to become.
00:56:19
Speaker
and you know, he's shown flashes here and there and and even so far this season, he started decently, but then we saw the old, vla we saw the Vlauvić that disappointed everyone in the last game against Roma. We saw a Vlauvić that was terrible and, you know, Vlauvić we need to see consistency, we need to see him raise that level consistently and become that striker because if not, that could be a potential weakness in this Champions League in that Juventus may not have a striker that they can rely on.
00:56:48
Speaker
And also, as I've said before, I think actually one of Motus weaknesses, even during that special Bologna season was that sometimes his possession can be a little bit sterile in the sense that he that they're so good at dominating, his teams are so good at dominating possession, keeping the ball, but they don't um overexert themselves in terms of throwing men forward, throwing men into the box, overloading, committing themselves, overcommitting themselves, because motto is always very pragmatic and wary about leaving gaps in case if they lose the ball, then the other team can kind transition and counter and score.
00:57:28
Speaker
And that is why Juventus, or why Mota teams are so good defensively. It's not because of their teams. In fact, if you look at Juventus' team on paper, it's actually quite weak. On paper, this is very good. Exactly. So it depends how you look at it. If you look at it on paper, you'd say, well, actually, a lot of these big Champions League teams should be able to get at Juventus. Even Serie A teams should be able to get at Juventus. But the midfield is so strong.
00:57:53
Speaker
or protect that and motto style of play. So I actually think that it could be from an offensive point of view where where where where where let's say some questions need to be answered and Vlawovic is certainly one of those. There's no doubt about that. That's exactly what I meant when I said that in strength that I said the Tiago motto, the Juventus are structurally defensively very sound. It's exactly that point that they are more than the sum of their parts.
00:58:21
Speaker
um And that is because Tiago Mota will have them set up to be as such. um And that's why I think that Juventus will... could but I have them as a dark horse, too for as a potential finalist. um Not to win it, but they could so they they could, if the draw is right, and they're you know they don't have any injuries. They'll lose to Inter in the final, yeah? Yeah, oh my God, a Derby Natalia Champions League.
00:58:47
Speaker
That would be would be unbelievable, wouldn't it? Um, but no, seriously, I think they would, uh, they, they are, they are strong. And also like Tiago Motta has this ability, I think we can say so far in his career to get young players to believe in themselves. Even the fact that they don't have experience doesn't bother them. I expect, I mean, the way that he's gotten youngsters to explode now but to almost two, three seasons, if we count Spezia.
00:59:14
Speaker
he he he gets He puts the young players in such a... He builds a system and has the play young players, inexperienced players, playing in system in a system where they find themselves in situations that they're comfortable with, that they're used to handling. And so their inexperience doesn't get exposed. That's what he's really good at. And that's what I really like about Tiago Mota.
00:59:36
Speaker
that he's good at getting players to grow fast. And he does that he does that, in my opinion, by putting them and creating a system where he puts them in situations where they're comfortable, where yeah where even though they don't lack experience of the biggest games, it's a football game. It's a situation these players find themselves comfortable in and are used to being in, in terms of tactically on the pitch. That's what I think he's very good at. Yeah. I agree. I agree. and prediction, then group stage. I mean, you've already kind of said, yeah if if they do what you say they do, then they're going to finish in the top eight. I'm going to say they qualify. I think 16th to 24th. The events of experience. I can see them maybe drawing a few of these games that you expect to win. And there may be been ah a little bit of teeth, some teething issues, but I do expect them to qualify.
01:00:34
Speaker
you've I'm not going to ask you again because you've already said do you think it's okay. Overall, yeah overall i'm I'm going to listen. I hope that they overachieve. I'm going to say last 32 or last 16 because I do think that the lack of experience well we will come. again It depends on the draw. It really does. It depends on the draw, who who your mentors get. and you know I hope to be to be pleasantly surprised.
01:01:01
Speaker
Based on quality and based on modest qualities, I think they're better than last 32 or even last 16 potentially. But ah I do think that lack of experience realistically, they they' they've hardly played in the Champions League, any of them. I really do think that that that will be important in the in the new year.
01:01:19
Speaker
No, it will be in decisive moments. and But I do think that, look, i ah people telling you know people need to understand one thing. You being a uventino, I'm being an interista. When we do these predictions, when we do these analyses, we're not talking fandom. We're talking analysi analysis based on, like we've explained, why and how. And that's why I believe in this youth as much. I don't support them.
01:01:43
Speaker
But I do think that they will. They are going to really, really. I mean, it's just no, because I'm tired of this ridiculous discussion where people conflate fandom with analysis and punditry. And it's really annoying. Like when you say that you don't believe in something, it doesn't mean you're anti anything or pro anything. It's just based on, as I've explained and you explain why we believe in them or not. And then we'll have to see how it plays out. But I do think that Juventus are solid. I do you think Juventus have started a a cycle that will be a winning and successful cycle. um And this is just the beginning of that. And there's, you know, when you go through purgatory in hell and there's belief, you air out the windows, you create something new. This creates enthusiasm all around the club, from the fans to the boardroom to the dressing room. And I think that that should not be discounted.
01:02:41
Speaker
Yeah, no, I agree with that. Let's move to Atalanta now. First of all, their opponents, they have Arsenal, Chatea Danets, Celtic, Stuttgart, Youngboys, Real Madrid, Stumgratz, and Barcelona away. So first of all, I would say pretty good draw, I think, for Atalanta. We're looking at the really tough games at Arsenal, but if you look at the other five games,
01:03:11
Speaker
Very winnable. I mean, Shattar Donetsk away. I don't think that would even be an away game. I think that would be neutral territory yeah still. Then we've got Celtic at home. Stuttgart away. I don't think Stuttgart are as strong this season as they were last season. and Young boys are away and Sturm-Gretzer home. I mean, five pretty, pretty winnable, winnable games really. So again, I think a good draw for Atalena.
01:03:37
Speaker
I agree. I think it's overall it's a good draw and I think they should, um exactly for the reasons you said, I think it's five very winnable games. And then if you can, you know Barcelona away is not impossible. ah Real Madrid at home, they can beat anyone at home, Atalanta, because at home they are one of the best teams in all of Europe.
01:03:55
Speaker
um and and And they've got Real Madrid and Arsenal at home. So it wouldn't surprise me if they won both of them, really, ah because they are that good at home. They are a completely different animal at home. They really, really put you through the centrifuge when you play them at home. It's like you get dizzy. They are such a difficult side at home. So look, it's um I think it's a good draw. um and And I think they they they they should qualify. They really should qualify.
01:04:26
Speaker
Yeah, I agree. I was hoping you speak for longer because the window cleaners around and making a noise. So apologies. Apologies, if anyone. I mean, there's just been a massive thunderstorm. Why do I need a window cleaner to come now? um Yes. The great thunderstorm of 2024 in Bedford. Yeah, ah um Right. So the fans of squad, the players that are not in the squad, Skamaka, of course, injured with his ACL.
01:04:56
Speaker
Suleimana out, surprisingly out, Suleimana actually. And Scalvini is actually in list B, somewhat surprisingly. He's still expected to miss the group stage though, but I guess that's probably quite positive actually to, again, I've said group stage there, I'm sorry, I'm gonna keep saying that. League stage, we just have to say that. The league stage, yes. The league stage. The league stage. He's probably, I mean, that's a positive, that suggests that actually they feel like he could be back, maybe even like, because the group stage group stage, the league stage is still going on in January. So so he he might be, maybe he'll be back for for those games. So those are the plays that are out. At Atlanta, probable 11, which should be flashing on your screen now for those that are watching. Kana Secchi in goal, the back three, the strongest back three, Jim City, Hyen and Kolazinac, although Jim City will first group game.
01:05:51
Speaker
Then the wing backs, Belanova and Ruggieri, this is a three, four, two, one. And then the sentiment fielders, Derun and Elles. Then the two attacking midfielders, Diketeler and Lukman. And then Rettaghi as the striker. So strengths and weaknesses, Nimr. What are Atalanta's strengths?
01:06:16
Speaker
They are a seasoned European football team who has won in Europe and knows how to play these games, difficult games away, and knows how to win difficult games away. um They know how to win at home. They have you know they they have they have European pedigree. I mean, if we're talking experienced matters, reigning Europa League champions what were a minute away from going to the final of the Champions League, if you ask me, against PSG during COVID season, continuously in Europe, know how to balance league and and and European competition, have a very clear identity, a clear attacking identity, a difficult team to play against, and they have depth. Quadrado, Zagnolo, Zappacosta,
01:07:06
Speaker
when Skamaka comes back, Skalvini, they have options, which is crazy. And they'll never be favorites against the biggest in the Europe, but there are no mugs and they continue to, to, to overperform, uh, time and time again. And it's, it's, um, you know, it's, they are just such a well-run club, um, on and off the pitch.
01:07:32
Speaker
Yeah, not not too much to add on that. I mean, I agree with everything you said. they they've They've got good experience now. I mean, they got the quarterfinals of the Champions League in 2020 when they were, you know, seconds away from reaching the semis where they would have played Leipzig, um which means a good chance they could have got to the final. Well, that's why I say they would that's why i say they weren' they would have gone to the final that year because I think they would have dominated Leipzig. Yeah. Yeah. The football's very conducive to playing well in Europe. We've seen the man-to-man marketing system still worked really well in Europe. And we saw that with Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp just got outcoached completely tactically, didn't have the answer to Gasparini with Liverpool last season at Anfield, which I mean, how many, I mean, they've won twice at Anfield in the last few years. I mean, how many seem cru how many teams have won once at Anfield in there? I mean, Atalanta are in a small group of teams. I think it's only about a handful of teams that have won twice at Anfield in Europe in history.
01:08:27
Speaker
and Atalanta are one of them. and then And then, again, just to further your point, they showed last season that they are capable of beating anyone in Europe. I mean, the the run on the way to the Europa League final, beating Liverpool, beating Leverkusen, unbeaten in the final, beating Marseille, who are really a Champions League quality team. I know they're not they're not in Europe at all this season, but they they they are a Champions League team, really. And then, sporting Lisbon.
01:08:56
Speaker
who who are they played four times last season in the group stage and they knocked them out in the in the knockouts as well. They always got the better of them, unbeaten against them. So so yeah, Atalanta are even with, the they I mean, they've been handicapped by the injuries and the lost players, which were which we'll come on to now. I still think that they they they they they will do well, I think, in in Europe. Let's talk about the weaknesses, though. They are, though, on paper. There's no doubt about it. They are significantly weaker than last season. Injuries really have killed them in terms of having that potential to go on and win something big, even bigger than the Europa League, challenging to win that Scudetto, which we discussed it in the last season. We thought they had the potential. They spoke about it openly. Gasparini's bird at capacity. They spoke about it. They said, you know, we want to go forward now. We've got the team, the squad, and they can just build on it with a good
01:09:56
Speaker
transfer campaign, they weren't far away from being in that position to challenge. And they've had a horror summer really unlucky with the injuries. They've lost Scalvini, their best defender to an ACL. They've lost Skamaka, their main man in attack to an ACL. They've lost their best, probably their best overall player, their best midfielder, Koop miners to Juventus. So they've had, you know, the the heart of their team ripped out from them.
01:10:23
Speaker
So unfortunate, so unlucky. yeah As a result, that the team is weakened. So we know that has to be acknowledged, for sure. For sure. But they have samajic, they have zanyolo, they have options. I mean, they brought in retegi, they brought in quadrada to give them experience. I mean, this is, yes, they have they are weaker, but they have done everything they could to mitigate that.
01:10:46
Speaker
and It's and the look of the situation. We're just going to have to wait and see what happens there. I think that he will be reintegrated and and this is his last season with them. um But they will try to, I think both club and player will kind of put let bygones, be bygones, focus on the season, have a good season. And then in the summer i say goodbye. But they see that they they have handled their adversities as a club really, really well.
01:11:13
Speaker
um And they play like you say, a football that pays off, pays dividends in Europe, ah more than it does in the Serie A. So they are, and I think that nobody wants to face them. I think anyone looks at that and go, oh God, not them. They've become that team that nobody wants to play in Europe.
01:11:31
Speaker
Um, because they, they chase the life out of you and they never give up and you can still be, you can be too nil up against them, but they can score three goals on you in 10 minutes. Like that's the thing about them. They are always an attacking threat. Even if they are defensively, some, somehow, you know, sometimes very solid, they're sort of sometimes very weak. And that has been an issue, especially this season, they were, they were ripped apart by Inter. I mean, completely ripped apart. Yeah. Lost 4-0. The defense has been really bad so far this season. I think that is a potential.
01:12:02
Speaker
weakness but or a definite weakness for them, especially with Scalvini, with Scalvini out and the defenders that they brought in. We'll see Koisinou, the lad from Leverkusen. I don't know as much about him. I'm not sure about their defense, to be honest with you. And I think part of that is also down to the central midfield, because Edison, who who's a fantastic player, obviously they've lost Kukmai, probably the most complete, tactically most complete centre and midfielder in the whole of Serie A, I've lost him, which is a huge loss. In this actual sense, midfielder, when it's Ederson and De Rune, that's fine. It's compact, they can do everything that's wanted that's needed of them. The problem is because of these defensive problems, because of so many defensive absentees with with s Scalvini being out, with Jim Sitti being out,
01:12:55
Speaker
with other Kolasinac gets very injury-prone as well, is that Derun often goes into playing at centre-back. Now, when he goes to play at centre-back, they don't have anyone else that can come in at centre-back. That's a mistake that they've made in the transfer market. They should have gone out and signed another central midfielder, like a real central midfielder. Not, as is often the case, is Marco Pasalic, who's really an attacking midfielder, plays as a central midfielder next to the Edison.
01:13:22
Speaker
and leaves them way, way too open. And that's that's one of the reasons why that they've struggled so much this season defensively, is that that sentiment field is too open and doesn't protect them the back four enough. It's something that that is a bit of an issue for them.
01:13:35
Speaker
i want I think a way around that is Samarjic Eddison playing together in a double pivot. um That's something I want to see. I want to see him try that and see what happens there. I think there's a way, you know, Gasparini's identity, his attack is the best defense. um So I think with Pasalic, I just don't think he's got the tactical and technical intelligence to to to play in central midfield in that role. I do think Samardzic does because I think he's incredibly skillful, he's incredibly technical, he has he he has a he has great vision, fantastic passer and I really want to see Samardzic and Edison play together in a double pivot.
01:14:21
Speaker
My doubts for the Samardzic complain in a midfield too, to to be honest, but i hope I hope you can. Prediction time though for Atalanta, group stage First of all, they will qualify. um I'm pretty confident that. I think the draw is good. I see a lot of people predicting the top eight, including bookmakers, usually quite quite usually usually quite accurate on the on these things. I wonder whether they're basing that a lot on last season's team though. I would say ninth to 24th to finish and and they qualify from from ninth to 24th. And I do think ninth to 16th is doable based on the draw. What do you say?
01:15:00
Speaker
I have them league wise, exactly like Inter, 7, 8, 9, 10, somewhere there. I think they have a chance to finish in the top eight, but I think it's a bit of a difficult task given the games and given how the others are, you know, the other player teams that will also fight for top eight. I think it's, you can't demand anything of them. I think 7, 8, 9, 10 is where I can ask them, ask of them. And I think that's where they will be.
01:15:27
Speaker
Okay, and overall, overall, where do you see them finishing? How far can they go? Quarterfinal. I think when Gasparini's pre-season training usually pays off towards the end of this, from February and onwards, and it does that time and time again, they are, his teams are crazy fit when everyone else is tired.
01:15:50
Speaker
And that's why I think that the quarterfinal minimum for them is what I kind of expect from them. With a good draw, who knows? I mean, look, I i think we both would love it if they won it. Seriously, like, even if Inter and Milan don't win it, I mean, would you I would love it if Atalanta won the Champions League. I mean, come on, how magical wouldn't that be? That was legal though that would that would be nice to see, wouldn't it? It would be magical. I think I think last 16 is doable for them. I think quarter final could be possible as well with with a good draw. I wouldn't rule that out again. The draw is everything the draw is is everything really. it It really depends on the draw. Let's finish off then for the final Serie A team and the shock team in in the Champions League this season from Serie A. I mean, who could have possibly predict to this? is
01:16:47
Speaker
is Bologna, who had that magical season fair to Thiago Motta last season. So let's have a look at their opponents. They are Shattar Donetsk, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Monaco, Lille, Demfica, Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon. First of all, I mean, just just ignoring kind of like Bologna,
01:17:10
Speaker
what we think they could do or get to that after. But I mean, what do the the draw itself, I think it's quite comparable to Juventus' draw in that there's one really tough team. In this case, it's Liverpool and Juventus' case, it was Manchester City. And then the rest, there's no real gimmes. There's no gimmes. And not that I would call any team a gimme for Bologna, but you know what I mean. But there's no real weak, really weak teams.
01:17:35
Speaker
in in this group. I think they've been a little bit unlucky with with who they they picked out from the bottom seeded pots. They they could have got they were unlucky there not to get a really easy team from that pot. But there's so there's the they're all they're all teams that are all kind of like middling to good level other than other than Liverpool. is that Is that how you see it?
01:17:58
Speaker
Yeah, um Liverpool, Aston Villa, been I mean, the look at these away games. Liverpool away, Aston Villa away, Benfica away, sporting away. These are difficult away away games. um It's, you know, difficult into like cauldrons. Yeah, that's what I mean. And field European nights. You know, Villa Park, Benfica at the Stadium of Light, I mean,
01:18:27
Speaker
No, and sporting. I've got to be honest with you. I think they, I wonder even if they finish in, if they qualify. I've got to be honest with you. Oh, saying that like it's a surprise. Yeah. We'll come to that after. For me, I look at this and I think it's given their, you know, everything is relative. It is similar to Juventus, but in the sense that Juventus are way better than Bologna. Bologna are a mid table Serie A site now.
01:18:57
Speaker
um And i i think they're going to be I think it would be an achievement if they even qualified, a huge achievement if they qualified. I think there could there's a chance they could be the whipping boys. Yeah. I love how level-headed you are ah are about it. i'm I'm going to be quite matter of fact out there. Yeah. let's let Let's talk about the squad and the team first. So the squad,
01:19:22
Speaker
Quite a few interesting players left out, actually. yeah Jesper Coulson, Chris Silvestri, Illich, Kambiagi. Injured. But that is because he's got an ACL, El Azuzi, and Benjamin Dominguez. Surprised in players included, though, Luis Ferguson, who i I didn't expect to be included because he'd done his ACL last season. I thought surely won't be included in the in the in the league phase. And Samuel Lilling Jr. is also in after after a round.
Bologna's Season Overview and Challenges
01:19:51
Speaker
diving in from Aston Villa on loan. The or the best 11, not easy, but I um we i mean, Vincenzo Italiano, a new course for Bologna taking over from Thiago Motta, we're looking at 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 depending on how you want to read it. So Skorubsky in goal, probably Posh ah right back, Miranda at left back, Bukema and Lusumi at centre back.
01:20:22
Speaker
then midfield, Marco Fabian, Froyla, Ibisha, and then on the wings, Orcelini and Doi, and then I'm going to say Dalinga or Castro in in attack. mean if If we look at the strengths of Bologna, trying to be as respectful as possible to them. If we were talking about their strengths from last season, I could have spoken for a long time.
01:20:45
Speaker
but you look at them now, um I think they've got some interesting young players like Undoy was one of the players who I thought could really break out and explode this season in Serie A because he had a really fantastic Euro, Switzerland, and he's got those raw qualities, the pace, the dribbling, he's very direct, he frightens defenders, you know, especially as Bologna might be playing a more, well, I mean, it's Italiano, so they try and have possession, but they are going to have they're going to come under that can hit teams on the break. I think Condoy is, it could be somebody that could could be successful. I like Fabian as well. He seems to be growing quite nicely and I think he can't be that far away from an Italy call-up with Fabian. And Castro as well is quite an interesting player as well. So, I mean, they've got some good young players and I also think that the Swiss block, the Swiss guard, let's say, are a good,
01:21:44
Speaker
are good. ah we We saw how well Switzerland did in the Euros. Undoy again, Ibisha, good player, Freuler, very underrated, had a very underrated career. you know they they They can definitely bring something in terms of experience, those latter two in in in the Champions League. So they do have something there. It's not like they've got nothing so to offer.
01:22:06
Speaker
Absolutely. They do. They have some experience. The Swiss guard, as you so brilliantly call them, together with Fabian and Orsolini, who always comes good for them. These are their strengths. But um other than that, and and also the fact that they have a coach who's reached European finals, albeit it's the conference league, he plays a football that pays off and in in Europe. But um i I just think they are qualitatively, structurally way, way out of their league.
01:22:39
Speaker
I have to say, I agree, sadly. and if we if we talk about If we talk about the weaknesses now, I mean, let's be honest, player for player, they've been gutted. they I mean, first of all, the coach. I mean, Italiano is for a team like Bologna is pretty much, is prit they're pretty lucky to have got a coach like Italiano for a team of their level. So they've got a good coach. So it's not a weakness, but they've lost Motta who who was Without Motta, there's no way this, but even with the players that they had, there's no way this belonging team gets in the Champions League. I mean, he was everything for them, the way that he the way that he he got those players to grow, the way he got them to play. I mean, it was magical. I mean, they were the second top, they were second in Serie A for possession, which is just an incredible hope for team, a small team like Bologna. So, Motta's a huge, even if it Italiano, I think, is is a very good replacement. But it's the players that they've lost in the squad. I mean, they've lost Joshua Zirksi, who was a monster.
01:23:39
Speaker
for, for, for, for, for below in attack. Calla Fury, who was probably the best center back in Serie A, he's gone to Arsenal now. We saw in the euros, one of the best defenders in the euros. Magnificent. They lost seller makers who's now, we went back to Milan, he's now gone to Roma. And of course they lost Luis Ferguson, who was there, their goal scorer in midfielders. So, I mean, they've lost, they've lost their four best players and their coach.
01:24:06
Speaker
um laie And they've lost Christenson as well. Christenson, the left back, he was also who I actually quite like, I think he's a good player. ah le they've They've lost half their team. And the players that have come in are way off the quality of the of the players but that left, that they're just not. And they've lost one of those as well to an ACL already. It can be Aggie. So it's is the team is is being weakened. So shattered. We have to be perfectly honest here. And when you add to that,
01:24:37
Speaker
The fact that they had a very difficult start to the season in Serie A, I mean, two points from three games, and there are no easy games in their group. Maybe Shaptor, the first game at home, is the one game where I think they got a chance to potentially win that game against Shaptor. Apart from that, I wouldn't be betting on them in any of the games. If I'm a gambler, I wouldn't be confident of them beating any of the other teams, if I'm honest.
01:25:06
Speaker
I have nothing more to add. I think they are the whipping boys of this tournament among the whipping boys in this tournament. They'll finish towards the bottom half. And yeah, that's, that's all I got to say. I think they would be, it would take something miraculous for them to qualify. I agree. I think they're going to go out. There's no doubt about that. They'll finish near the bottom of the 30 16 table, maybe.
01:25:31
Speaker
30th, 31st. Something like that, yeah. At best, probably, to be honest. ah No, I'm with you. I'm with you on that. Very, very difficult, unfortunately. Let's do, to finish off, let's do predictions, overall predictions of the tournament ah as ah as a whole, so not just the the the Italian teams.
Champions League Predictions and Potential Breakout Stars
01:25:53
Speaker
We'll start off with the big one. Who is going to win the Champions League this season? there
01:25:59
Speaker
I can't get past Real Madrid. And I just feel, Caroletto's building a dynasty there, man. Like he's, they are, it's just, it looks so damn good. You know, already it looks so damn good. And I don't know, I, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich, I can't choose between them.
01:26:24
Speaker
I can't choose between Real Madrid and Man City because i'm I'm always finding arguments for the other teams not winning it. I still don't think they're quite ready. I think they're ready to win up the Premier League, but maybe not quite ready to win the Champions League. Liverpool, the same. I don't think that they're they're they're ready to win the the Champions League. By Munich, I cannot see Bayern Munich winning the Champions League with Vincent Kompany as their coach. I'm sorry, I can't. And PSG,
01:26:54
Speaker
I don't think there's enough there's enough no quality in that team, like superstar quality in that team now that they've lost Mbappe as well. I think it's out of Real Madrid and City. I think with City, the potential, what could potentially harm them is if they get this points penalty, this big points penalty in the Premier League, even though it's not related to the Champions League, it could have the knock on effect of of deriding the season, but then it could be the other way. It could be that they just focus on the on the Champions League. It's also probably going to be Pep Guardiola's last season. So maybe this is, you know, they he wants to go out winning the Champions League and they focus it all on the Champions League, especially if they if the points penalty is so heavy that they're out. So it could actually end up playing in their favor. I think it really depends. It depends with the appeal. They'll probably appeal against the sentence. The sentence will probably come in the new year, like December, January time. Then they'll appeal it.
01:27:51
Speaker
I don't know when that appeal will will be finalised. It'll have to be by the end of the season. maybe you'll be So it's it's kind of a bit of an un unknown, but I think Man City or Real Madrid, Inter, there's a possibility, Inter. I mean, they die. We're talking dark horse. Inter are dark horse. But the favourite, City Real, and I know Vincent Kompany is not the greatest coach, but he does have a fantastic team. The quality of Bayern Munich is unbelievable.
01:28:20
Speaker
um And at some point it has to pay off. Sometime Harry Kane has to win a trophy. troy
01:28:32
Speaker
best poo Best player, you got the best player. um
01:28:39
Speaker
I think it's going to be, you take your pick from Real Madrid, man. Like, I mean, Mbappe, you know, ju Vinny, I mean, you know, that midfield, I mean, who, I mean, take your pick. It's just, it's just littered with quality. And then you look at City and they're littered with quality. I mean, I think whoever of those teams that win it is going to be, I mean, I couldn't tell you, but I mean, we all know the names. So it's just ridiculous for me to repeat them, but they they just have so much.
01:29:08
Speaker
yeah He, Junior, I think will win the Ballon d'Or. That's what I understand. And I think he's the best player in the world right now. But, you know, if I'm going for a little bit of a field pick, I've loved what I've seen of Luis Diaz so far. fromnewable He's just taken his game onto onto onto a superstar level from what we've seen in the early stages, still small sample size. it He could be someone that could could really light up this tournament if I'm if i'm going a little bit left field. Top scorer.
01:29:36
Speaker
It's hard to look past Erling Harland for Manchester City, I think. For me, it's Kylian Mbappe. I think it's Kylian Mbappe. OK. OK. Yeah, I think it's going to be interesting to see how they work that dynamic with Mbappe and Vinny and get them playing together. and So that's why I might have a little bit of a doubt there. Breakout star, who you got? I guess we should go for an Italian one, should we? Yeah, I was going to say, I mean,
01:30:08
Speaker
Could it be, I mean, when you say breakout, I mean, we in in Italy know all about Tunkopminers. We all know about, you know, so there's not a breakout, but i I don't think there's very many people in Europe who know about Tunkopminers or know about, you know, those kinds of players, or Rogeri, who I absolutely love, um or Belanova. Like, I think it's going to be someone like that that's going to become a... Or Yildis. Yildis for sure. Yildis for sure. like He's really impressed me.
01:30:38
Speaker
So yeah, yeah, I like all of those. I can't really, I can't really pick one from insert because they're all quite established. Yeah. Maybe be second. I don't think we'll play enough to really be a breakout.
01:30:50
Speaker
Bologna, no. And Milan, can we pick out a breakup player from Milan? Well, you can't say that Teo, Mignon and Liao are breakout players at this point, can you? Yeah, Reinders maybe. Reinders could be. Reinders is a good shot. Reinders is a good shot. Reinders is a good shot. I like that. Yeah. And if he got a chance, Liberale as well, you know, I think has not, maybe not the Champions League, but in Serie A, I think he's, I think he does. When you would see Man in Crisis, as Milan are right now,
01:31:18
Speaker
the chances of the youth players getting a chance just decrease even more. And that that is a problem than any other lit football. As soon as there's a tiny, there's just ah any chance of ah pressure being on, that's it. It's it's it's all that young, for the young and experienced players. And unfortunately, that could probably be the case. Flop club. Who's going to be the flop club? I mean, this has to be a big thing. Barcelona. Barcelona are going to flop, I think.
01:31:48
Speaker
I think so, okay. Yeah, I'm not a big... I don't like what they... I don't like that. They've started really well in La Liga. They've won all their games in La Liga. I like, I mean, I like Hansi Frick, but no, I just don't. Yeah.
01:32:06
Speaker
ah um I usually go for the manager in these things. I'm going to go for by mean it just because company. I'm just. Yeah. You see, I like Hangzi flick. I think he's a great coach, um but I just. That club is such, I mean, they've bought good players and they look good, but I don't, I don't know, man. I just, I'm looking at the biggest teams. I'm thinking, I can't make an argument for Arsenal city. a book They're going to qualify. I can't make an argument for, for Real Madrid.
01:32:36
Speaker
Maybe Real Madrid, who knows? Maybe Mbappe and Vinny don't work and they don't qualify. I don't know. No. i when i speak When I say flop club, ah Barcelona are going to qualify.
01:32:49
Speaker
but like club talking last 32, aren't we? oh last thirty two Okay. yeah i think i think I mean, can you really, can you see any of the big clubs not qualifying? That's what I mean. I can't. I can't. I can't. I think they all will, but I do think that Barcelona could not get knocked out early.
01:33:09
Speaker
I do you think that. And buying unique with company, that is absolutely a possibility for sure. But I don't see Liverpool, Arsenal, City, PSG, Real Madrid getting knocked out early. I just don't see that. No, I mean, to get knock that so get knocked early, you're probably going to have to lose at least four of your games, four or five, or or not win four or five of your games. Can't see that happening.
01:33:38
Speaker
to these big clubs when they're playing against, it seems like Slop and Bratislava and Red Star. The gap in quality, unfortunately, is so big. It's not like it was in the 90s when I watched, I was there when I watched my IFK Gothenburg beat Milan, Barcelona, Manchester United, Galatasaray and so on.
Conclusion and Upcoming Matches
01:34:02
Speaker
You know, that doesn't happen anymore, you know, unfortunately.
01:34:09
Speaker
unless atalanta go on and win the whole damn thing one guaranteed prediction though that i can give you is that Whichever team is playing against an English team, whether it's Real Madrid or whether it's Slob and Bratislava, none of the of that team is getting it was going to get into the English team. yeah That we can guarantee. He doesn't even get into the Chelsea thing, does he? Yeah, like la on rubby la ra rubb later OK, right. Let's leave it at that. and Thank you, everybody. Thanks ah for listening and for watching. and We will be back with a full show on Monday for for a review of the of the weekend Syria action. And we do also have some some previews, some individual match previews of of a few of the Italian teams match day one games in the Champions League. where we've We've done an individual preview on Milan against Liverpool on Manchester City.
01:35:11
Speaker
Inter and on Atalanta against Arsenal. So those will be going out. They'll be on our YouTube page and on the ah podcast apps as well, just kind of which we're probably going to do a few more of this season. and But that is that's all for this show. Thank you everybody for for watching and for listening.