Transcript
df: Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Debatable Discussions podcast. Thank you for joining us for an interesting conversation. that will cover recent and future events of UK politics. mainly Who will be?
df: London's future mayor.
debatablediscussions: Yes, Diane, we're going to be discussing all the recent developments in British politics. including one. that you just mentioned there that we were recently talking about. amidst the start of Andy Burnham's office tenure. James Cleverley.
debatablediscussions: has recently announced that he's going to be standing for Mayor of London in 2028. I think it's quite an interesting move by Cleverley.
debatablediscussions: Perhaps this is sort of strategic career decision by him. in that he feels he can sort of position himself into perhaps the highest seat of power that he'd be able to achieve i think for cleverly it was probably always going to be unrealistic and it now is unrealistic for him to become leader of the Conservative Party and then Prime Minister.
debatablediscussions: So by being mayor of London, I think it's probably... From Kevly's perspective, I understand why he's done it. because it's a strategic career move.
debatablediscussions: I think Cleverley will also... Be very popular. or has the potential to be very popular is the right turn of phrase. he's a sort of good quite warm and willing personality I think.
debatablediscussions: You could say he seems very engaging, very open. This sort of thing that you perhaps look for in more of a Mayor of London than you would in a Prime Minister or a party leader, let's say. Perhaps he's got... almost the charisma which people slightly associate with Boris Johnson back when he was Mayor of London. Which...
debatablediscussions: I think is a good thing. I think it can attract lots of voters, but then perhaps cleverly balances that with a bit more. administrative, political experience and it's a bit more savvy in those areas. He's obviously going to have a lot of opposition. from numerous other candidates across the political uh spectrum what do you think they are
df: Yeah. I agree. I think it's an interesting position for him. Coming off. Sort of. Ta. massive blunder. at the Conservative conference.
df: where he was sort of seen as a favourite and then... Apparently his voters voted for Robert Jenrick.
debatablediscussions: Yeah.
df: thinking it would be an easier final with the members and it all backfired terribly on him. He didn't go into the final round. But I think, as you've said, I think he's pivoting definitely towards that position because of the benefits that it's going to bring him. Mayor of London.
df: Huge position in terms of number of votes that you need to get And also it shows popularity with the Electra. something they can easily See you.
df: trade for. in case there would be another. party leadership context. It's quite hard to be the mayor of London if they run and if they're also a national figure. like James Cleverley is.
df: But as you said, there's going to be strong opposition. We don't yet know if Sadiq Khan is going to run again. He's just been made the Lord. So that's opened up. some interesting avenues for the Labour Party to explore, whether to put him in the cabinet.
df: or not. But no matter what happens, he hasn't decided yet if he will continue. trying to fight for a new term in 2028 or not.
df: Whoever the Labour Party pushes, I think, comes as the favorite. Fab. for the pure fact that they've won the past. a couple of elections but as you said cleverly's uh is interesting i don't think he's also that much on the right to the point that he's sort of abrasive to moderate voters.
df: he doesn't have sort of a personality that makes him incompatible with people. But of course, reform still exists, Leila Cunningham.
df: notoriously sort of polarizing videos about London's danger. Okay. Something that I think actually makes I think London was the worst place to live because...
df: There's all these So people that haven't actually been to London in a couple of years. they see these videos and think London is south side Chicago in the 1920s. And it isn't. It really isn't. Of course, there are some dangerous areas. some things happen, but crime is down.
df: especially violent crime, murders are down, knifings, stabbings are down.
df: the only crime that is on the rise is phone snatching.
debatablediscussions: Yeah, you make a good point there. Sadiq Khan has been really effective with knife crime in London.
df: Yeah.
debatablediscussions: knife crime is actually rising in other parts of the UK. But in London, it's been falling for the past few years. He's been quite effective with the policing.
debatablediscussions: of basically violent crimes in London. uh i mean compared to the vast majority of global cities. The rate of violent crime in London is very low.
df: Yes.
debatablediscussions: What is an issue? I think probably. and has been used as you mentioned there dan it's these sort of more low -level crimes which are notoriously difficult to crack.
debatablediscussions: to capturing crime statistics so criminologists would know about this but obviously so much crime goes unreported especially at a low level that it's sort of more difficult to get a picture of the level of that. but I think that's a real
debatablediscussions: Peace. for momentum for these candidates is a real sort of emphasis they can put on their campaigns but As you said there, Sadiq Khan has done a very good job in a way with this violent crime. Which I think, if you go back four years ago or five years ago, that was the predominant.
debatablediscussions: sort of theme, narrative, revolving around crime in London and that has changed.
df: narrative, yeah.
df: Yeah.
debatablediscussions: You mentioned that somewhere else, Leila Cunningham, who... whose candidature for the mayorality was announced very early. I mean, at least a year ago.
df: a couple years ago.
debatablediscussions: Yeah, a couple of years ago, probably. I mean, probably not that far after
df: seems like forever.
debatablediscussions: the previous selection. Yeah. I personally don't think she'll win. I think you said that she seems a bit too... Right wing. In reality, most people are far more moderate.
df: Yeah.
debatablediscussions: Uhm? And that was sort of... frankly hurt her. But similarly, I think... Then on the other hand, you've got the greens. who will similarly sort of fracture the political landscape on the left.
debatablediscussions: So it will be interesting who wins.
df: Yeah, I think You've mentioned a really good point there.
debatablediscussions: Yeah.
df: the Greens in London will do a lot better. Damn. and serve rural parts of the UK. purely because the sort of electorate that they managed to mobilize.
df: Young. university educated.
debatablediscussions: Left wing.
df: Left wing.
debatablediscussions: Yeah.
df: a lot of those people. I live in London.
debatablediscussions: in London.
df: I think. you know, for that same reason performs not in a good position because Young people. you know multi -ethnic city I don't think that's a...
df: How? detecting our jobs is going to work. as effectively as it does in Clacton. Great Yalma Soul. wherever else. Cleverley's got... one sort of Bad.
df: outcome I think for him. Which if he loses this election, he's effectively out of the forefront of the Conservative Party. I find it very hard for him to lose and somehow manage to sort of get back in the cabinet.
df: At least for a few years, if not forever.
debatablediscussions: Yeah. I think Cleverley's obviously been in the cabinet, he's held significant positions. But I think there's this idea of almost there being sort of a new generation, perhaps of political leadership in the Conservative Party.
debatablediscussions: he's he's he's Definitely one of the most well -known Conservative politicians. And that will help him with his strategy in London is a sort of doughnut strategy. of targeting the outskirts of London, which favour sort of, I suppose, the suburban parts, which favour conservativism far more than perhaps the left.
debatablediscussions: leaning center. So he'll sort of compete with Restore and Reform. around there And I think through the current polling, And it is a bit outdated. Has Labour is leading?
debatablediscussions: If you made me take an early prediction, Diane, and perhaps we'll do both. do this I would guess cleverly wins. I think in mayoral elections the sort of role of an individual candidate holds far greater sway.
debatablediscussions: And it does ultimately depend who Labour chooses as their candidate.
df: Yeah.
debatablediscussions: That's a huge factor. and a huge variable in this. But I think... the Conservatives have definitely gotten the character bit right with Cleverley. And if...
debatablediscussions: obviously it's 2028 so there's a few years away but if people are still dissatisfied If there's a lot of dissatisfaction towards Labour then... obviously that goes in his favour. So it is an early prediction and sort of having to forecast the next year or so of politics. But I think Cleverley's got a good shot.
debatablediscussions: What do you think, Dan?
df: Yeah, yeah, I agree with you. For me, if Sadiq Khan decides to run again, I think he'd win.
debatablediscussions: So, yeah.
df: I think he'd be able to get another time. On the other hand, if they were to choose someone else that he can't... wants to walk away from politics or decides to take a different job. in a cabinet or an MP or something like that I think I think I have these becomes the number one favorite quite quickly.
df: It also depends how the sort of market keeps evolving with the greens.
df: with restore With the Lib Dems, we haven't mentioned the Lib Dems because they actually haven't made any major announcements about this.
debatablediscussions: Yeah.
df: So it depends who they throw in the ring. If they throw... moderate left -leaning candidate that could be good for cleverly for a moderate right -wing leaning candidate. that could perhaps be good for labor it all depends on on again on the people because as you've said this election is much more about the person running.
df: rather than the party they come from. and that would undoubtedly have a huge huge impact. and you know let's let's see how the whole country's doing in two years time economically
df: Because that's also going to be... something that's going to impact the votes.
debatablediscussions: And that's an interesting thing you mentioned there, Diane, which we'll touch on quickly. sort of in UK politics, but sort of everywhere now. Inflation is on the rise. As we're speaking now, the Bank of England are deciding whether they're going to raise interest rates. over just this persistent inflation from the war in Iran. So bond yields, so gilts, which are the UK bonds, have jumped above 5%, something that sort of...
debatablediscussions: or have jumped above five percent something that's been mirrored in the USA. So it's a sort of turbulent financial time for Andy Burnham at the moment.
df: Yeah.
df: Fish on.
debatablediscussions: turbulent impetite killer. for how it's going to dictate his budget. So with his Chancellor, John Healey. and he i think they're delivering a budget in late october i think it was the 28th of october And that's going to be really interesting to see.
debatablediscussions: what Burnham wants to do. Burnham is... far more left leaning and secure, for example. So I think tax increases would need to happen, especially. because he's got this sort of commitment uh to maintaining the welfare state that exists And likewise.
debatablediscussions: as i said the volatility of the bond market but also his chancellor john healey resigned from his previous job. because he claimed that we weren't spending enough on defence. So it's going to be interesting to see.
df: Yeah.
debatablediscussions: how that plays out.
df: It'll be interesting to see where they actually put money and how much money they can find.
debatablediscussions: Yeah.
df: Because it hasn't been. an easy period for the government. especially with this war in Iran and war in Ukraine. The whole situation about oil prices being sky high and...
df: Also, defense -wise, it's not a very predictable time. You don't really know what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone in five years. I think they need to have a really serious think about.
df: where they actually need to invest.
debatablediscussions: That's an interesting point and it aligns with the sort of personal prediction.
debatablediscussions: I have that's really influenced by the current news. and that's that this war in the middle east we're seeing is going to almost be a perpetual conflict.
df: Yeah.
debatablediscussions: It's just going to really go on for a long time now. and things like trade, oil, instability around that. really important part of the world.
debatablediscussions: is going to be, as I said, far more unpredictable. I think... I recently read something about how almost from sort of 1948 when Israel was founded to the modern day, you can almost summarize its relations in the Middle East and the whole of the Middle East relations in general. as being almost...
debatablediscussions: in a state of very high tensions with these occasional periods of actual armed conflict so the Yom Kippur War, the Six Days War.
df: Yeah.
debatablediscussions: and obviously the recent developments for the past few years. And I think if you follow that trend, is probably just going to be the same in the future. and That's something for Burnham and obviously for Trump to factor in. How are they going to deal with or mitigate the situation in the Middle East?
df: Yeah It's gonna be interesting. But... I think the biggest challenge right now is finding a solution that leaves enough. opened so that they can adapt to it later.
debatablediscussions: Yeah, yeah and And that will be very interesting. similarly perhaps something to touch on for the last minute or so of the podcast they are is defence.
debatablediscussions: We live. british politics this is sort of starting to become a far more prevalent theme when you read the news. in particular as I think Britain is mulling over whether to join this defence.
debatablediscussions: Defence Security and Resilience Bank. which Canada started. to sort of help fund defence efforts. It sort of started this debate of really improving the British Armed Forces.
debatablediscussions: What do you think the government should do about this? How will they go about it? It's a big question, in particular because they've got this 3 % target to hit of GDP spent on the military.
debatablediscussions: I think they've said it for 2030 or 2035, but... Who knows?
df: Yeah.
debatablediscussions: It doesn't seem realistic.
debatablediscussions: Yeah.
df: the main priority. really sorting these conflicts out.
debatablediscussions: Yeah.
df: I think the moment we... we've Managed. Tea. at least open up the straight up for me. That'd be it. Massive victory. for everyone involved.
df: Russia Ukraine isn't helping anyone
debatablediscussions: Yeah. Yeah.
df: I'm not saying we need Russian gas. which is what a lot of people are saying nowadays, especially on the right of politics. They've woken up and said that the solution to everyone's problems is to just...
df: raise sanctions on Russia. and I'll be fine. We'll just get it all from them. will bankroll their economy again. I did that.
debatablediscussions: Which is ridiculous, yeah.
df: I don't think that's the right thing to do.
df: Stop. The fact that it's a conflict that keeps going and that keeps pouring our resources, both financial, arms. And... Personnel. As well. It needs to stop.
df: I think I think though The moment we've managed to serve stabilise global trade. through the stratiformes. or find an alternate route that actually doesn't take too long.
df: And... then we'll have a better idea because at the moment what a lot of countries are doing is they're trying to sort out their energy demands. and that's obviously a very slow process you can't just build a nuclear reactor or a wind farm or...
df: anything coherent. and In a day, the only thing you can do is burn coal. Wait. is incredibly bad for the planet, so they're trying to avoid it.
debatablediscussions: Yeah, and as you mentioned that... The world is sort of bordering on this state of energy insecurity. uh with the conflicts in the middle east that has reignited this whole debate over.
df: Yeah
debatablediscussions: how to mitigate. conflict to be able to to a full international trade to be able to function normally. So I think with that, we'll conclude the episode.
debatablediscussions: I hope you've enjoyed our sort of little politics filler discussion. sort of overview of recent things we've seen. or thoughts were interesting.
df: See you next week.
debatablediscussions: See you then.
