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Champions League Reaction: What AC Milan Need To Qualify After Bayer Leverkusen Loss (Ep. 459)
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AC Milan are joint-bottom of the Champions League league phase table with zero points from two games after losing 1-0 to Bayer Leverkusen. Carlo and Nima react to this result and explain what Milan need in terms of points and performance in order to qualify for the knockout round.
This is a clip from the weekly Thursday episode of the Italian Football Podcast.
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Transcript
Milan's Challenging Start
00:00:04
Speaker
footballcast They have a lot to do. They've got zero points from their first two games. There's six games left.
Qualification Mechanics Explained
00:00:11
Speaker
um What do Milan now need to qualify? Well, again, as we know, the the top 24 teams qualify for the for the for the to the to the next round, the the top eight qualify automatically to the to the to to the last 16, and then the teams placed from ninth to 24 play a playoff match in the, you know let's let's call it the last 32, and then the the winners of those of those gate of that tie then joins the rest of the teams in the in the and the top eight teams in the last 16.
00:00:45
Speaker
so
The Magic Number for Qualification
00:00:46
Speaker
they've actually it's actually been worked out what the computer has actually worked out why do you say it was such anger and hatred and disdain the computer that woman okay so Are you angry with the computer? so Okay, some human has done the maths himself. No, no, no, no. You say it with such a wrath. like have you had Have you had computer problems this morning? like ah you Are you angry at technology? Well, I still can't use my mouse. I still have to bang the laptop to get the mouse working.
00:01:23
Speaker
yeah Anyway, listen, the computer has worked out that basically 10 points is the magic mark in the Champions League phase. But if you get 10 points, yeah there's a 99% chance of qualifying for the for the last 32. 11 points is 100%.
00:01:41
Speaker
nine points is a 69% chance of qualifying. Eight points is a 16% chance. So basically like 10 points is is the end. That's what Milan
Milan's Path to 10 Points
00:01:51
Speaker
needs. So Milan need 10 points from the 18 points available. Now usually That wouldn't be easy, but five of those six games are against Club Bruges, Girona, Redstar, Sloven Bratislava, Dinamo Zagreb. The other game is against Real Madrid away. so They should be, on paper, getting what they need from those games, given that the level of opposition. I mean, even if we take Girona out of the equation, I think Girona are a much weaker team. I don't think they're very good at all. Even if we look at just Club Bruges, Red Star, Sloven, Bratislava, and Dina Mosaga, they basically need... That's 12 points.
00:02:32
Speaker
Yeah, or they need three wins and a draw from those four games. I mean, they should, if they don't do that, it's a flop. Let's not mince words here. If they can't get 12 points out of those games, we have to agree. It's a flop.
Maintaining Derby Level Performance
00:02:44
Speaker
It's, it's a, it's a gross underachievement. And that's why I'm not too bothered about this level cousin loss, because I thought they stood up. Well, I think they took a huge steps forward compared to the first game. They showed character, they reacted in the game and.
00:02:56
Speaker
towards the end, they can consider some themselves a little bit unlucky to have not gotten at least a point, which I think is the kind of thing that it's, as I said, useful losses in Swedish. It builds character. It gives light to belly under your belly. What it means, though, is that there's there's no room for there's not really much room for error. that thats That's it. I mean, they should be winning these games, but, you know, if they start playing like they did before the Derby you know like they played against Palmer or or you know then they could easily slip up in these games so it's it's on Milan to continue this kind of level of performance that they've shown since the Derby and if they do that I think they'll be fine I didn't know they'll be fine but it's it's not it's never ideal when you start a Champions League phase and you lose your first two games it's not of course it's not I put pressure
00:03:44
Speaker
It puts pressure and the goal difference and and all of that, you know, these things, you know, the order in which you play games matter.
The Crucial Club Bruges Match
00:03:50
Speaker
um So, of course, it puts pressure on Mila. There's no doubt about that. And then, of course, but I don't think it puts an enormous amount like it's not like it was before the Derby.
00:04:00
Speaker
You know, it's not what it would be if if there was any, if it was ah the group stages of the previous year as well as sports teams in the group, yeah then then you you really are in trouble. That's different, but this isn't that. And no, I still think Milan, I think Milan have also to be perfectly honest with you. I think if they win those five, that's 15 points. That puts them within a shout of even finishing in the top eight.
00:04:24
Speaker
It's not impossible. 73% chance. Yeah. So, you know, so I think this is this, you know, I, I, I'd personally written off these three games, um, for Milan. Uh, I look at those other five and and those are the ones that I want. I think Milan should win all five. I think they're good enough to win all five. And if they do, that's 15 points and that puts them in a really good chance to finish in the top eight, which would be very good.
00:04:48
Speaker
Uh, and, and, and, and so, you know, like let's, let's go next games against club Bruce at home. That's a must win. That's a must win game. Yeah. If they don't win that, then we can start worrying about qualification. Yeah. If they don't win that. Yeah. Yeah. Because realm would come in match day four. So so then, yeah, that's true. they Then you're in club Bruce games key. The club Bruce game is key. The club, the club Bruce games absolute key. Um, and they need to, they need to get a result there.