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Arkansas Up Next + Old Men Revisit XII Predictions
127 Plays5 months ago
Welcome to Episode #66 of the No Conference for Old Men Podcast.
Another dominant win, this time over a tricky New Orleans team. But is this Houston Cougars squad truly equipped to win the XII for a 3rd straight season? The Coogs are now 10-1, ranked #8 in the AP, and rounding into form on both sides of the ball with XII play right around the corner. But a final big test awaits this weekend vs what could be the best team in the SEC in Arkansas.
Please have a listen as the 3 Old Men break down the game vs UNO, as well as provide some thoughts on the upcoming game vs Calipari-led Arkansas. We then revisit our predictions on the Big XII conference race, with all the key non-con games now behind us.
- No Conference for Old Men is available for free via Spotify / Apple Podcast / SoundCloud & the GoCoogs.com website; we're also available via the Republic of Football Podcast feed from the folks at Dave Campbell's Texas Football as their only basketball-centric offering
- Intro / Exit music: Ground Zero provided by FreeBeats.io
- Please follow us on gocoogs.com/old-men/
Recommended
Transcript
Introduction to Episode 66
00:00:06
@NoConfForOldMen
Welcome folks to episode number 66 of the No Conference for Old Men podcast, the podcast where three old guys are talking Houston Cougars basketball with a little bit of Big 12 coverage added in as well. And proud members of the Goku's.com network, the undisputed number one Houston Cougars content provider.
00:00:23
@NoConfForOldMen
And we're back with all three old guys, Bill Walker, former player, Tom Lediac, former coach, and myself, Steve Chang, analytics guy for this episode.
Houston Cougars' Recent Performance
00:00:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Well, our Cougars are starting to finally hit on all cylinders now after the prolonged breakdown for Vegas. And now we've really, after a crushing win over a good New Orleans team, 99 to 57, we've now had three games in a row with a more gritty and connected group effort on both sides of the ball.
00:00:52
@NoConfForOldMen
And now we'll get into our final big, non-conference game. This season with what could be the best SEC team this year in Arkansas on a neutral court in New Jersey this Saturday. So we'll get into that game summary and Arkansas preview shortly. But as a special topic today before the holidays, we'll also have a third segment focused on revisiting our Big 12 projections. Now that the key non-conference games have been completed.
00:01:19
@NoConfForOldMen
Question's going to be, do we still feel like our Cougars will win the Big 12 this season? And are we changing our predictions around who the main challenges are going to be? I took a peek at our original episode 61 projections, and I'll just say that I'm a bit more confident in my original predictions versus those from the other two old guys here. So we'll get into that later.
00:01:41
@NoConfForOldMen
So let's get started, guys.
Analysis of New Orleans Game
00:01:42
@NoConfForOldMen
In looking at our...
00:01:43
.0Bill Walker
For sure.
00:01:44
@NoConfForOldMen
In our one game this past week, let's take a look at how we felt the team perform versus New Orleans, starting with you first, Tom. were some of the things you saw from a coach's perspective in the New Orleans game that kind of bodes well moving forward?
00:02:02
Tom Lidiak
Well, not really from a coach's perspective, but just the bench production. You know, as a as like like a casual fan, observer, k Coach Sampson, he made almost like hockey lineup changes in the first half.
00:02:07
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:02:17
Tom Lidiak
You know, guys coming in, guys coming out, but really got really good production from Mercy McCarty. They 15 points apiece. McCarty had five rebounds. And then in the second half, Kelvin mentioned in his – Zoom, I think Zoom conference that he purposely played the starting five a little bit more because they needed to get out there and get some get some consistency and and get some chemistry going.
00:02:39
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:02:42
Tom Lidiak
And, you know, Chris ended up with 15, Fleming's with 15. But to make a long story short, the the story of the game was what was the bench coming in and and getting great production from the bench.
00:02:56
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay. Bill, how about you from a player's perspective on the New Orleans game?
00:03:02
.0Bill Walker
Well, I'm still getting close. I predicted a 39-point win, and we won by 42. So, like I said to everyone, hang with me. They'll be exact once we hit the Big 12.
00:03:14
.0Bill Walker
Tom, your your prom date, Stacey Hollowell, ri really had absolutely no chance against us, and and that that played out from virtually the beginning.
00:03:22
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:03:26
.0Bill Walker
This was never a game. We we shot... In the first half, we shot under 40% from the field. Senac could not hit a free throw in the first half, and we were up by 21.
00:03:39
.0Bill Walker
We were up 44-23 at half. The free throws got better. The shots certainly got better in the second half. And by the way, they were all good shots in the first half. They just weren't falling.
00:03:49
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep.
00:03:50
.0Bill Walker
No no big deal. Second, well, not second half, but for the game, after being under 40% in the first half, we shot 54% for the game and scored an absolute non-standard U of H 55 points in the second half.
00:04:08
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yep.
00:04:15
.0Bill Walker
Sanak, 15 points in only 17 minutes. I love the fact that – and I – asked for this a few episodes ago. He's flashing.
00:04:27
.0Bill Walker
he He's getting the ball around the free throw line, just inside the free throw line. He's, he's hitting shots. He's, he's much more creative. Uh, yeah, I like, I really liked that going forward.
00:04:41
.0Bill Walker
Uh, three of seven from the line.
00:04:41
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, agreed.
00:04:44
.0Bill Walker
He had foul trouble again, but, uh, But yeah, look, look more promising. Fleming's had 15 and only 19 minutes, a three boards, three steals, three assists.
00:04:57
.0Bill Walker
Yousand did not shoot well again.
00:04:59
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:05:00
.0Bill Walker
And that's going to come. I'm positive that's going to come, but he, he dished out 10 assists and zero turnovers. Uh, Mercy, 15 points, five of five shooting, two steals, two turnovers. And and I thought he did a nice job of of putting it to his dad.
00:05:22
.0Bill Walker
So that was nice. up Ramon looked comfortable shooting threes. he
00:05:27
@NoConfForOldMen
He did.
00:05:27
.0Bill Walker
you know he He had a solid game. And you know right now I'm you talking about the bench, like you mentioned, Steve. But finally, the one guy I've got to mention of course, and Steve, you're laughing because he's your bust, and so I've got to bust you about this, was Chase.
00:05:45
@NoConfForOldMen
hey
00:05:46
.0Bill Walker
fifteen He scored 15, 4 of 5 from the field, 3 of 4 from 3, 6 boards, had a block shot, and this is all coming from someone who yes, red shirted, but he is still, yeah whatever it is, nine games in into his freshman year, essentially. So Steve get off his back. He's going to be fine.
00:06:13
@NoConfForOldMen
he was He was awesome. I'll give him his props. He had it by far his best game ever. he He must have been listening to our podcast. Got motivated. Yeah.
00:06:22
.0Bill Walker
he's irritated with you. Team, 23 assists, and and I've mentioned this now a few times, 23 assists on 32 made field goals. I mean, we are moving the ball. We are hitting the open man, and and and the and and like I said, we we missed a lot of shots, but we're we're making good passes. we're We're finding the open shooters, and i so I like that going forward.
00:06:46
.0Bill Walker
Only six turnovers for the game, which is great.
00:06:48
@NoConfForOldMen
I know. Phenomenal.
00:06:50
.0Bill Walker
And 11 steals.
00:06:51
@NoConfForOldMen
Hmm.
00:06:54
.0Bill Walker
New Orleans, 38% from the field, 29% from three. The only real positive thing I can say about New Orleans is that even though they missed a couple right at the end, they ended up 19 of 23 from the line, or else this could have been 50, 50-point score.
00:07:10
@NoConfForOldMen
Hmm.
00:07:13
.0Bill Walker
margin that they committed 21 turnovers and actually they, they cut down on those, uh, throughout the first half, they had three times as many turnovers as they had made field goals. And I was hoping that would continue for the, for the game, but, uh, but, but they got a little better at controlling the ball, handling the ball, uh,
00:07:37
.0Bill Walker
24 fouls to our 19, which is something that we never see. And quite honestly, it could have been a lot more. It, it, they I don't know if you guys saw it on TV, but at the game, they were absolutely assaulting Sharp.
00:07:54
.0Bill Walker
When he would get down near the baseline, they were bear hugging him. They were, they were, I mean, literally, I'm not, I swear to God, i'm I'm not exaggerating.
00:08:00
@NoConfForOldMen
Really? I couldn't see that. Yeah.
00:08:03
.0Bill Walker
I, he was just getting absolutely assaulted and, and nothing was called. And, and, uh,
00:08:08
@NoConfForOldMen
Hmm.
00:08:10
.0Bill Walker
little Little surprised about that. And then you know their best player, who I had mentioned, Buckley, he scored two points for the game. We held him to two.
00:08:21
.0Bill Walker
He did have seven rebounds, not bad for a guard. And as I had mentioned, is a turnover machine, and he committed five of their 21 turnovers. So this was incredible.
00:08:33
.0Bill Walker
Quite honestly, if we'd shot better in the first half, and they and like i said, they were all good shots, we'd win this game by just an innumerable amount.
00:08:36
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:08:42
.0Bill Walker
But yeah, good win. Everyone played well. Bench played well. On to Arkansas.
00:08:50
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. And this is a sneaky, good New Orleans team, you know, pretty good size as well. Had a couple of good wins.
Offensive Improvements Discussion
00:08:56
.0Bill Walker
At TCU. At TCU.
00:08:56
@NoConfForOldMen
So yeah, yeah, it's crazy.
00:08:58
@NoConfForOldMen
Right. But yeah, it was, as we had highlighted, third game in a row with improved efficiency on both sides of the ball for our Cougs. On offense, this was by far our most efficient game of the season from an effective field goal percentage.
00:09:13
@NoConfForOldMen
Again, third game in a row, shooting over 56% effective field goal percentage on offense, ending with a blistering 64% effective field goal percentage from the field.
00:09:25
@NoConfForOldMen
This is also by far our best shooting night from three point range shooting 48% from beyond the arc. Now, while we've continued to our hot shooting from two ending it I think, I think we were at like 58% from two point range. So even with a cold first half, we ended the game with just phenomenal results. Love the continued usage of Senac as you had highlighted,
00:09:50
@NoConfForOldMen
You know, Bill, from the high post, either shooting from the free throw line or dumping down low to Tuggler. And our biggest issue with turnovers up to this point has finally calmed down a bit, ending the game with under 9% turnover rate. Great progress as we head into a very tough game.
00:10:08
@NoConfForOldMen
defense in Arkansas. Now on defense, we cont continued with our better communication and getting up in the ball handler's face. Far fewer instances of Senac or McCarty getting beat by their man. And Tugler has finally adjusted to not insisting on trying to block the shot when out of position, trying to cover for others' mistakes. And so, you know, all great things moving forward.
00:10:31
@NoConfForOldMen
And as I'd highlighted earlier, Bill, I will give McCarty his props. First game after I questioned his contributions to the team and in this last episode. And boy, he ended the game at a player box score plus minus plus 28 for the game. By far the highest on the team. Obviously, if he can keep this up against the better teams, then he'll see the court. And this next Arkansas game will be a key test for him.
00:10:58
@NoConfForOldMen
So now...
00:10:58
.0Bill Walker
Lottery pick.
00:10:59
@NoConfForOldMen
Lottery pick. There you go. I'd love to see it. I mean, I think we we...
00:11:01
Tom Lidiak
Thank
00:11:03
@NoConfForOldMen
I don't know if we talked about it in last episode or maybe offline, but my hope for him is, i mean, if he can get to a point where he's like... armoni arm Armani Brooks part two for us, that would be great. I mean, it's a similar build, similar type of game. And granted, yes, he's only a freshman in his second season with the program. But, you know, come next year, if he can perform at that level, I'd be ecstatic.
Arkansas Game Preview
00:11:32
@NoConfForOldMen
So now let's pivot to the big Arkansas game scheduled for this weekend, a neutral game in New Jersey versus Calipari bill.
00:11:33
Tom Lidiak
Thank
00:11:39
@NoConfForOldMen
Once you start off, there's players take on this matchup versus Arkansas.
00:11:44
.0Bill Walker
All right. Despite the fact that this is going to be a tough game, I actually don't have a ton on this. Uh, we play them at four 30 on Saturday on CBS.
00:11:55
.0Bill Walker
So nice that we get a, a, a prime time and, you major network.
00:11:58
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:12:02
.0Bill Walker
So that that's good. Uh, like you mentioned, we're going up against Calpari,
00:12:09
.0Bill Walker
You mentioned Steve, a really tough defensive challenge and they are 35 in Ken Palm, but they're, but they're 22 in offense.
00:12:14
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yep.
00:12:18
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:12:19
.0Bill Walker
They've been, you know, at least at recently scoring a lot of points, 25 overall in Ken Palm. They, they were picked. I've seen them it's pretty tight, either five or six in all the preseason rankings I saw in the SEC.
00:12:35
.0Bill Walker
They're, Their two losses so far have been michigan number 22, Michigan State, by three, and number four, Duke, by nine.
00:12:48
.0Bill Walker
their Their two best wins have been Louisville by eight, and and they just recently beat Tech by seven.
00:12:54
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:12:55
.0Bill Walker
So that that would be the one that the you know most people, I guess, would be you know kind of – comparing them to us based on what they do against Tech. In any event, their players, they've got one, they've got a lot of very good players, and they're really kind of a guard-heavy team.
00:13:18
.0Bill Walker
But their one supreme player, five-star freshman, he has been outstanding this year, Darius Acuff, 6'3 point guard.
00:13:29
.0Bill Walker
He's averaging over 18 a game, 3.2 rebounds, six assists, 44% from three. i mean, he is he is going to be a tough matchup.
00:13:44
.0Bill Walker
I
00:13:44
@NoConfForOldMen
Who do you think is going to play him on D?
00:13:46
.0Bill Walker
i have that written down, and I wrote that I would love to see Flemings matched up against him, you know, five-star versus five-star, but...
00:13:48
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay.
00:13:53
@NoConfForOldMen
Hmm. Yeah.
00:13:56
.0Bill Walker
But if you're going to put our best defensive backcourt player on him, it's absolutely got to be sharp.
00:14:05
@NoConfForOldMen
But do you think coach is going to do that?
00:14:09
.0Bill Walker
e You know, I don't know. I think it's going to be a combination because they're so –
00:14:14
@NoConfForOldMen
Hmm.
00:14:16
.0Bill Walker
they're they're so guard heavy. They, they play a lot of four guard offense. And a lot of those guards are in the, in the six, five, six, six range. And I think sharp being so strong that he will probably by default be guarding one of them at, which would put Fleming's against cuff, which like I said, I'd love to see, but, but I would also love to see sharp kind of shut him down.
00:14:27
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:14:44
.0Bill Walker
Uh,
00:14:45
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:14:46
.0Bill Walker
Some of their other guards are Carter Knox. He's averaging 10 points, 5.5 rebounds, fifty almost 52% from three. He is a 6'6 shooting guard sophomore.
00:15:02
.0Bill Walker
Let's see, who else do we have? DJ Wagner, who who transferred with Calpari from Kentucky, a 6'4 junior. He's actually having a really terrible start to the year. He's only averaging eight points. He's not shooting well. And quite honestly, none of his statistics are any good, but he's but he's still playing a lot.
00:15:22
.0Bill Walker
Who else do we have? Malik Thomas, another guard, 6'5 freshman. 15 points. he's he's He's off to a real good start for freshman. Four points, three and a half assists.
00:15:37
.0Bill Walker
He is a mediocre shooter, but he will get to the line. and and So that that could that could be a matchup against Sharp. I could see that. He actually came off the bench against Tech, but he played 24 minutes.
00:15:51
.0Bill Walker
And then the one... the one productive big guy for them is Trevin Brazil. He's averaging 50. He's a 6'10 senior, 230 pounds, 15.7 boards.
00:16:06
.0Bill Walker
He's stealing the ball one and a half times a game, one and a half blocks, 55% from the field. and And just like... Just like, guess, Knox, 47% for I've got to imagine that...
00:16:20
.0Bill Walker
forty seven percent from three for a six ten guy i've got to imagine that
00:16:23
@NoConfForOldMen
Wow.
00:16:27
.0Bill Walker
yeah I would think that Tugler would be playing him, but, but, you know, who knows? like It could be Seneca. They've, they've got a couple other guys who play a lot, of and no statistics on them. Billy Richmond, is another six, six guard.
00:16:40
.0Bill Walker
And then a guy named Nick Pringle, six, 10 forward, who you might recall, he played last year at Alabama, which is one of the like 29 schools he's attended.
00:16:48
@NoConfForOldMen
Hmm.
00:16:52
.0Bill Walker
And he's,
00:16:52
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:16:53
.0Bill Walker
he's a He was actually projected to be a starter and a and a kind of a big-time player for Arkansas this year. and he he's He's about their eighth man. he's he's just He's not been all that good this year. Like I said, lately Arkansas has been putting up some pretty big numbers, but lately they've also been giving them up as well, as shown in their 108 to 80 win over mighty Queens College on Tuesday.
00:17:24
.0Bill Walker
And yeah, so that that, you know, they,
00:17:28
@NoConfForOldMen
They like to run.
00:17:29
.0Bill Walker
They could be scored on.
00:17:29
@NoConfForOldMen
I mean, definitely like to run.
00:17:31
.0Bill Walker
Yeah, absolutely.
00:17:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:17:32
.0Bill Walker
I mean, this is, you know, it's not quite a you Hank Gathers, Loyola Marymount offense, but but they'll they'll get up and down the floor offensively, some defensively.
00:17:37
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:17:43
.0Bill Walker
And and yeah, this is this is definitely going to be a major test for our defense. Like I mentioned, I'd love to see the two five-stars playing each other. But as I said, I...
00:17:55
.0Bill Walker
yeah I think that Sharp will be spending a fair amount of time on on Acuff, but but we'll see.
00:18:05
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yeah.
00:18:06
.0Bill Walker
I mean, he's just been so good that that you know he's, yeah and I don't like the term, but head of the snake, and and he he's someone that that we need to shut down. Let's see.
00:18:18
.0Bill Walker
They are, for a high-scoring team and a running team like they are, that they're turning the ball over just like us. I think we're at 9.5 turnovers a game. They're at 9.6. So the turnovers are almost dead even.
00:18:31
.0Bill Walker
So they they've actually handled the ball pretty well. and
00:18:34
@NoConfForOldMen
Very well.
00:18:36
.0Bill Walker
So we'll give them credit for that. I hope we can force a few more, and I think we will. yeah This is... This is really a tough one to pick.
00:18:47
.0Bill Walker
yeah we We need to defend their perimeter shooting first and foremost. We need to control tempo. if if we can If we can control their break, if we can keep this...
00:18:53
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, absolutely.
00:18:59
.0Bill Walker
potentially in the 70s, which I don't see, although I think it's going be close, that would be enormous. And then we need to make them work their butts off on D.
00:19:10
.0Bill Walker
And and with us moving the ball as much as we do, i think that will potentially happen.
00:19:11
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:19:16
.0Bill Walker
And and then because we are better inside, i hope we I hope we can take advantage of that. And, yeah I may be biased, but I think we win this game 84-78.
00:19:29
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay.
00:19:29
.0Bill Walker
I think we will control tempo to an extent.
00:19:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Six points.
00:19:32
.0Bill Walker
And, yeah, 84-78.
00:19:34
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay. Nice. How about you, Tom? What's your take from a coach's perspective on the Arkansas game?
00:19:40
Tom Lidiak
Oh, a lot of what I think about the game is, you know, Bill already covered, but, you know, they have a deep roster. They play eight deep. Three of those eight guys are 6'10 guys. Very, very athletic. Very, very skilled.
00:19:55
Tom Lidiak
Defensively, you know, they're they'll make some fundamental mistakes, but they're athletic enough where a lot of times they, you know, they'll they'll come out out of nowhere and make a play. i think we'll be the more fundamental and disciplined team.
00:20:10
Tom Lidiak
It's going to come down to tempo. Who controls tempo? We've got to keep the game. Like Bill said, you know high 70s, low 80s.
00:20:21
Tom Lidiak
If it gets any higher than that, I don't think we win. So controlling the tempo is you know is is is huge. Like us, you know their roster is full of five stars, four stars,
00:20:36
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yeah.
00:20:37
Tom Lidiak
You know, it's going to be – think it's going to one of those games where people from the country that are watching, you know, they're going it's going a lot of fun because it's going be a high-level game, a lot of skill, lot of athleticism on both teams. So, you know, both teams are going to make plays.
00:20:57
Tom Lidiak
You know, we're going to make plays. Arkansas is going to make plays. But I think it comes down to, you know, which team more fundamental. you know on the defense and and and and shot selection.
00:21:08
Tom Lidiak
Some great matchups there, like Bill alluded to. Darius Acuff, 6'3", Kingston, what, a They're almost kind of like identical as far as stature goes.
00:21:15
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yeah.
00:21:19
Tom Lidiak
I think A-cup might have been the overall number one point guard rated in America. So we'll we'll see if Kingston's the type of guy that gets motivated by that stuff or he just doesn't care.
00:21:31
Tom Lidiak
you know it'll it'll be it It'll be interesting to to see that part.
00:21:35
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:21:37
.0Bill Walker
By the way, this is, and I'm sure Calvin would say this as as well, that this is like kind of the Las Vegas games. If we if we do lose this game, know, big deal. it'll it'll be It'll be a learning experience. It's... it's It's not going to have a huge effect on on what happens down the road.
00:22:00
.0Bill Walker
it'd be It'd be great to win.
00:22:02
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:22:02
.0Bill Walker
and like I said, I do think we will win. But but this this is one where as long as we play well, if it whatever happens, I'm fine with it.
00:22:12
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. I mean, I think is Kelvin's.
00:22:12
Tom Lidiak
And then, well, oh, just, you just one more thing.
00:22:14
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, go ahead.
00:22:17
Tom Lidiak
I mean, just, I might be overlooking somebody, but if you're looking at the SEC teams and how they're doing so far, you know, Arkansas is probably, probably playing the best, I would say.
00:22:28
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, i I feel like they're going to win the SEC this year.
00:22:28
Tom Lidiak
Yeah.
00:22:31
@NoConfForOldMen
I think they're the best team in the SEC.
00:22:31
Tom Lidiak
yeah You know, you know, cause it sure as heck is not Auburn. Yeah. or or Alabama right now. I don't know if you guys saw, but Nate Oates went off the other day about when he didn't call timeout against Arizona.
00:22:40
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:22:42
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:22:45
Tom Lidiak
and Arizona went on like a, I don't know, like a 17-point run.
00:22:49
Tom Lidiak
And he never called timeout. And his response was, why call timeout? Just to tell him you need to play harder, you know. So I'm sure Alabama's practices since then haven't been a picnic
00:22:49
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:23:02
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yeah, but I'll reiterate what Phil said as well. i mean, this isn't a conference game, but as I think Coach Sampson said it this week's kind of video conference for for the press, it's a nice measuring stick heading into conference play.
00:23:22
@NoConfForOldMen
And it gives us a good sense of you know how much have we progressed right since Vegas? Have all the the changes or tweaks that the coaching staff has made, things that they've emphasized.
00:23:33
@NoConfForOldMen
Right. It held true against three weaker opponents right up to this point. Now, let's see against a highly ranked opponent in Arkansas. Does it hold up right or?
00:23:43
Tom Lidiak
Right, on national tv on national TV.
00:23:44
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:23:45
Tom Lidiak
So it'll be interesting to see our bench guys that come in, you know, who's going to come in and, you know, a right right where the – yeah, where the stage is not too big for them.
00:23:46
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:23:49
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, exactly. Who's going to perform right with the bright lights?
00:23:58
@NoConfForOldMen
Exactly.
00:23:59
Tom Lidiak
And I'm looking at you, Mercy and McCarty.
00:24:03
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, me too. Those are the two I'm going to be zeroing in on as well.
00:24:06
.0Bill Walker
Well, the one and the one guy that the one the one guy I didn't mention at all from the from the New Orleans game is Harwell.
00:24:07
Tom Lidiak
Well, I say it. I say it too.
00:24:14
@NoConfForOldMen
Harwell, yeah.
00:24:15
.0Bill Walker
I think Harwell will come out and definitely hold his own.
00:24:19
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, I agree. Now, from an analytics perspective, Arkansas is 25th in Ken Palm so far this season and a very balanced team, as you had highlighted, Bill. 22nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and a very strong 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency. After 10 games, they've shown that they like to run. They rank 49th in tempo, and I think we're like 359th in tempo. So it's basically going to be a battle of wills around who's going to be able to control the pace.
00:24:49
@NoConfForOldMen
I expect us to drag them into the mud and see if they have the patience to grind things out. And I'm thinking that they're not going to be able to do that. Now, Arkansas's strength on offense is great shooting, especially from three-point range where they're 33rd in the country and not turning the ball over. They're actually better than us at number six in turnover her turnover percentage on offense where we're coming in now a little bit better, but we're still 38th in the country.
00:25:16
@NoConfForOldMen
And like us, they like to get quick points off of steals where they're 17th in Haslam metrics. So this will be the biggest challenge our D will have faced so far this season. Now on defense, Arkansas is dialed in on defending the ARC.
00:25:30
@NoConfForOldMen
Now they're number 32nd in three-point percentage D. Everywhere else, they're just kind of good with no glaring weaknesses. I expect us to really challenge Arkansas inside with drives to the hoop and Senac at the high post to open things up around the arc. Now, based on the metrics, this is projected to be a five-point win for the Cougs by Ken Palm.
00:25:51
@NoConfForOldMen
This is a tough game, as we've all highlighted, and I expect a lot of Arkansas fans to show up in New Jersey versus Houston fans. So though I expect us to play well and actually win as well, I've projected a closer 75 72 three-point win.
00:26:07
@NoConfForOldMen
So fingers crossed. And but i think as we all highlighted, most importantly, we want to make sure that the improvements and the tweaks that the coaching staff has made hold true against a top-notch opponent. So now let's get to our special topic of discussion
Big 12 Projections Post Non-Conference
00:26:24
@NoConfForOldMen
for today. We all did our initial Big 12 projections in episode 61, and we thought it would be a good time to see if we would readjust our assertions now that all the big non-con games are behind us.
00:26:37
@NoConfForOldMen
Now looking at my spreadsheet, let's remind our fans our top six contenders. Now, Tom, you had Houston one, Tech two, KU third, ISU fourth, BYU fifth, Arizona sixth as your top contenders. Then you had Baylor, Kansas State, Cincinnati, TCU, West Virginia, OSU, UCF, Colorado, UT, and then ASU.
00:27:02
@NoConfForOldMen
Now, Bill, you had also of H first. You also had Tech second. You had ISU third, BYU fourth, KU fifth, Arizona sixth. So both of you had Arizona sixth in your projections.
00:27:17
@NoConfForOldMen
Then you also had Baylor, then West Virginia, Cincinnati, Kansas State, TCU, OSU, Utah, Colorado, ASU, and then UCF. Now for me, just like the two of you, I had UH first.
00:27:31
@NoConfForOldMen
But I had Arizona second, then ISU third, BYU fourth, Tech fifth, then KU, and then kind of the rest of the six are very similar. Baylor, Cincinnati, Kansas State, West Virginia, TCU, OSU, UCF, Colorado, Utah, and then ASU. Now, Tom, why don't you go first? Would you change anything with your Big 12 projections and and really focusing on changes in your top six contenders and then maybe highlight some some of your biggest surprises with the bottom 10? Yeah.
00:28:05
Tom Lidiak
Sure. i My readjusted standings, I would have Arizona one. Originally I had them number number six.
00:28:11
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:28:12
Tom Lidiak
Just a reminder, we haven't started a conference play yet. So let you know we'll we'll you see what transpires. But Arizona is looking really good with wins over Florida, UCLA, UConn, Auburn, Alabama.
00:28:22
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:28:23
Tom Lidiak
Yeah. Yeah.
00:28:26
@NoConfForOldMen
A gauntlet man.
00:28:26
Tom Lidiak
yes yeah yeah
00:28:28
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:28:30
Tom Lidiak
Iowa State, I think you said I had them fourth. I would put them at two right now. But, you know, they they beat Purdue. That's probably their, you know, marquee win.
00:28:39
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:28:41
Tom Lidiak
And they they've beaten some good teams, not great teams. They beat Syracuse, St. John's, and Creighton. And then Tech is – I had them higher. I think I had Tech at number two.
00:28:54
Tom Lidiak
And I said, because of, you know, Grant McCaslin, well, I got him six right now.
00:28:54
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:28:59
Tom Lidiak
They're eight and three.
00:29:01
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:29:02
Tom Lidiak
kind of like Nate Oates the other day, McCaslin at his press conference just kind of went went off on some things. Yeah.
00:29:11
Tom Lidiak
he's looking for, he's looking for guys just like Oates is that, that, you know, that want to play hard and, you know, the same, the same stuff, you know, he had to bring in some new players and right now he's, he's not, he's not happy with them as far as their, their effort, et cetera.
00:29:16
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:29:30
Tom Lidiak
So that'd be, BYU's about where, I would, you know, i would have them. Kansas, the thing about Kansas is that you don't know because of Darren Peterson.
00:29:41
Tom Lidiak
Is he going to play or or isn't he going to play? you know, with the hamstring, you never know. I mean, he possibly could be out for the whole season because those things are, well, those things are nagging.
00:29:49
@NoConfForOldMen
Really?
00:29:52
Tom Lidiak
You know, if you ever had a hamstring,
00:29:52
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:29:54
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yeah. i have
00:29:54
Tom Lidiak
If you've ever had a hamstring injury, you know, you just never, look at they're kind of like a groin, just, I mean, the only thing you can do is fully rest it. And it seems like it's, yeah.
00:30:05
@NoConfForOldMen
Which they have been, right? They've been wasting them. So.
00:30:07
Tom Lidiak
And even even though you rest it and feels like it's okay, you you know, you might go out there and the first time you really run hard or jump high or something like that, you know, it, it it flares up again. So that that's that's that's something to keep an eye on as far as KU goes. Now, as far as the rest of the the teams go, Arizona State's probably the team that is better than I i thought they
Arizona State's Surprising Performance
00:30:31
Tom Lidiak
would.
00:30:32
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:30:32
Tom Lidiak
They have wins over Texas, Oklahoma. Their three losses, they lost to Gonzaga, UCLA, and and USC. So they're playing they're playing better.
00:30:41
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:30:44
@NoConfForOldMen
Agreed.
00:30:45
Tom Lidiak
Danny, Bobby Hurley, he's, you know, he's fighting for his job. That might have something to do with it.
00:30:50
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:30:52
Tom Lidiak
Everybody else, you know, it's a coin toss as far as these other teams. You just don't know really good records. and but and And you guys know this, a lot of these a lot of these schools on the bottom whose coaches are fearful of getting fired, they they loaded up on cupcakes in the in the non-conference.
00:31:11
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:31:14
Tom Lidiak
I don't think there's a coincidence there that, you know, what I mentioned I think about five or six coaches that are on the hot seat and you look you look at their schedule and it's nothing but bunch of tomato cans.
00:31:28
@NoConfForOldMen
Nice. How about you, Bill, from your players view, kind of the the top six re-ranking as well as surprises in the bottom 10?
00:31:38
.0Bill Walker
Well, Steve, as most people know, when when you and I disagree on something, you're almost 100% wrong.
00:31:48
@NoConfForOldMen
Never. Never.
00:31:50
.0Bill Walker
Always, always, always, always.
00:31:53
@NoConfForOldMen
didn't you Don't you still owe me dinner from Betts last season? You still owe me dinner.
00:31:56
.0Bill Walker
No.
00:31:56
Tom Lidiak
think that's I think that's me.
00:31:57
.0Bill Walker
No.
00:31:59
Tom Lidiak
I'll take you guys to Hardee's.
00:31:59
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:32:03
.0Bill Walker
Yeah, i i I think you're... A little delusional, but but I will give you i will give you credit for Arizona, even even though even though you did make that pick after they opened up with the win over Florida.
00:32:18
@NoConfForOldMen
That's not true.
00:32:20
.0Bill Walker
Oh, yeah, it is.
00:32:20
@NoConfForOldMen
that's yeah
00:32:22
.0Bill Walker
We we did our we did our Big 12 preview after the Arizona-Florida game, so I'm sure that influenced you.
00:32:28
@NoConfForOldMen
Well, you guys were making it. You you guys were making your picks the same time.
00:32:30
.0Bill Walker
We did it as well.
00:32:31
.0Bill Walker
We did it as well. Yeah, I won't.
00:32:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:32:33
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay.
00:32:35
.0Bill Walker
Yeah, I won't debate that.
00:32:36
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:32:37
.0Bill Walker
All right. I had of H one right now. I've got us finishing second.
00:32:44
@NoConfForOldMen
okay yeah
00:32:46
.0Bill Walker
I had Arizona sixth. I have them at one right now.
00:32:51
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:32:51
.0Bill Walker
Uh, The freshmen, mean, Coa Pete's leading them in scoring. Burries has has been extraordinaryri extraordinary lately.
00:33:01
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:33:02
.0Bill Walker
Bradley has been everything that that everyone would expected at at the point. Del Orso has been offensively, he's he's hitting his threes. he's he's He's been strong. And The seven-footer that was injured all of last year, Krivas, has been good.
00:33:19
.0Bill Walker
And then you've got a walkout. I mean, this is a deep team.
00:33:21
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:33:23
.0Bill Walker
They're good in the backcourt. They're good in the frontcourt. They've beaten Florida, UCLA, Connecticut. They hammered Auburn by 29, beat Alabama by 21.
00:33:36
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:33:36
.0Bill Walker
Tommy Lloyd's got them playing defense. They're playing hard. Yeah.
00:33:41
Tom Lidiak
Who are they missing from last year?
00:33:41
@NoConfForOldMen
And physical.
00:33:42
.0Bill Walker
so
00:33:44
.0Bill Walker
Who are they missing?
00:33:46
@NoConfForOldMen
Caleb Love.
00:33:47
Tom Lidiak
Caleb Love, addition by subtraction.
00:33:49
.0Bill Walker
They are missing Caleb Love. So I'm going to pick Arizona one and, and I will say that, uh, this should make my, my favorite Arizona grad who I'm having lunch with tomorrow, uh,
00:34:04
.0Bill Walker
Samantha Kwan, who who Sam is a great, Steve, you'll like this. She's a great tennis player, a phenomenal pickleball player, and and an an extraordinary professor at U of H.
00:34:09
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Oh, nice.
00:34:16
@NoConfForOldMen
Oh, wow.
00:34:17
.0Bill Walker
So she will be happy that I've got Arizona at number one. I had, well, I'll just go through my top six as I have them right now.
00:34:27
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:34:27
.0Bill Walker
I had ISU at three. I still have ISU at three.
00:34:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:34:32
.0Bill Walker
Uh, I think they've got as good a starting five, Momsilovic, Jefferson, Toure, Lipsy, uh, And I'll say this, if you look at the stats, Heiss has been awful this year.
00:34:47
@NoConfForOldMen
Hmm. Hmm.
00:34:48
.0Bill Walker
Absolutely dreadful. Great three-point shooter. I think he's shooting about 26%, 27% from three. he's He's just been horrific.
00:34:58
.0Bill Walker
So if he starts playing well, they're going to be even better than they are now. you know they They barely beat St. John's. They they annihilated Purdue.
00:35:12
.0Bill Walker
i don't think they're i In the end, I don't think they're going to be as good as we are. I think their bench is fair, even though it's comprised of a lot of Wisconsin kids. So I should be higher on on it. But yeah, i
00:35:30
.0Bill Walker
I'm not entirely enamored with with everyone that they've beaten so far. So I've got them at three. Right now, I've got and you guys will be surprised, I think, to hear this, I've still got Tack at four.
00:35:44
@NoConfForOldMen
Wow. Yes, that does surprise me.
00:35:48
.0Bill Walker
And i'm not I'm not basing it strictly on on what's gone on so far. I'm still basing it on how I see them play going forward. And quite honestly, they're eight and three.
00:36:01
.0Bill Walker
They do not have a single good win so far.
00:36:05
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:36:06
.0Bill Walker
They haven't beaten anybody, but but i still have I still have faith in McCasland. I like their players. I'm just surprised that they they haven't played that well.
00:36:17
.0Bill Walker
there And by the way, they're 27 right now in Ken Palm. Iowa State's three. Arizona's three. even though I think the two best teams in the nation are Arizona and Michigan, Arizona is four and Ken Palm and, and we are nine. Uh,
00:36:35
.0Bill Walker
Let's see. Next, I have Kansas at four.
00:36:39
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay.
00:36:40
.0Bill Walker
And I am i am picking them four, which I had preseason, because i am assuming that Peterson will be back.
00:36:52
.0Bill Walker
And i think they I think they've played pretty well, quite well. I mean, they're nine and three. They're 16. I mean, they're still 16 in Ken Palm. Yeah. and this has been with Peterson only playing four games.
00:37:05
.0Bill Walker
I I'm, I'm assuming that he comes back.
00:37:09
.0Bill Walker
If he doesn't come back, then, then obviously that, that that may end up dropping to as low as seven.
00:37:09
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:37:10
@NoConfForOldMen
Yep. Yep.
00:37:15
Tom Lidiak
He tried against the state, but he he came out of the game and didn't play it anymore.
00:37:18
.0Bill Walker
Yeah. I saw him. I saw him briefly.
00:37:20
Tom Lidiak
Yeah.
00:37:20
.0Bill Walker
Yeah, I agree.
00:37:20
Tom Lidiak
Yep.
00:37:21
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay.
00:37:21
Tom Lidiak
Yep.
00:37:22
.0Bill Walker
So I've got them still at four.
00:37:27
.0Bill Walker
I'm sorry. it five, I dropped them from four to five.
00:37:28
@NoConfForOldMen
Live, right? Yeah.
00:37:30
.0Bill Walker
Uh, BYU, I've got it six. And everyone seems to be enamored with BYU so far.
00:37:38
.0Bill Walker
They've... As far as what I've seen, and I've seen them play four times, I think they've really only had one good win, and that that was Connecticut, who they beat by two. They they annihilated Wisconsin by by, I think it was 28. But quite honestly, they they've beaten nobody else. I think that, not I think, I know they've they've struggled a bit. They're actually playing better defense than Connecticut.
00:38:04
.0Bill Walker
than they played last year. they're not Their offense has been kind of up and down. I will say, and I said in one of the prior podcasts, that he will be the number one overall pick. I i think A.J. DeBansa is just awesome.
00:38:22
.0Bill Walker
and So, yeah, I've got them at six. And then and then the team that I think – and I had them at seven originally, and I said they were going to be a sleeper this year.
00:38:32
.0Bill Walker
And I think that there's, they could still challenge, uh, BYU. I think they could challenge Kansas is, is Baylor. I think they're going to be, I think they're going to be better.
00:38:40
@NoConfForOldMen
Baylor, yeah.
00:38:43
.0Bill Walker
They've got a great player, Cameron Carr, who's, uh, who, who's been outstanding so far in terms of the sleepers.
00:38:46
@NoConfForOldMen
Agree.
00:38:53
.0Bill Walker
Uh,
00:38:54
.0Bill Walker
Oklahoma State, I i had them at 12.
00:38:58
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:38:59
.0Bill Walker
I like what Steve Lutz is doing with them right now. They're 56 in Ken Palm.
00:39:02
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yep.
00:39:04
.0Bill Walker
They're 9-1 overall. they yeah Really, their biggest win and really their only real good win is is the 24-point win against A&M, which I loved.
00:39:19
.0Bill Walker
And I love the fact that they're their leading scorer, his name is Victorious Miller.
00:39:27
@NoConfForOldMen
Nice.
00:39:30
@NoConfForOldMen
Exactly.
00:39:33
.0Bill Walker
I agree with you, Tom, about ASU. i had I had them doing well last year, and they did not. It seems like Hurley is... is coaching far better and getting better productivity out of the, out of the non five stars that he recruits.
00:39:51
@NoConfForOldMen
Exactly.
00:39:52
.0Bill Walker
He's he's gone to those, he's brought in small school players in there and they're playing hard and they're playing well for him. And then if I'm going to mention a third, I'll pick the team that I, and I picked ASU 15 out of 16 and the team I picked dead last with five new starters is UCF.
00:40:13
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:40:13
.0Bill Walker
They also beat A&M at A&M by 22. Their only loss so far, they're nine and one, they're 50 in Ken Palm.
00:40:19
@NoConfForOldMen
Exactly.
00:40:20
.0Bill Walker
Their, their only, their only losses is to Vandy. Who's, who's ranked.
00:40:23
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, was good.
00:40:24
.0Bill Walker
And and it was a high, it was like one, I think it was one Oh three 95.
00:40:25
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:40:28
.0Bill Walker
I mean, they, they put up some points.
00:40:29
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:40:30
.0Bill Walker
So they played well. So yeah, I like them. the The one team I, I, I would say that, uh, that you may bring up, Steve, and they're 64 in Ken Palm, Colorado.
00:40:43
.0Bill Walker
They're 10-1 right now. They have played absolutely no one, not a single quality team. and So they're 10-1.
00:40:54
.0Bill Walker
A lot of people like them, but I think they're going to sink once the conference play starts.
00:40:56
@NoConfForOldMen
yeah
00:40:59
Tom Lidiak
their And their one loss was to Colorado State.
00:41:02
@NoConfForOldMen
It was, but but I will say, hey, they gave us you know wins over Big East, Providence, as well as Big Ten, Washington. So at least the big conference to big conference comparisons, they got us two wins. So my happy camper.
00:41:17
.0Bill Walker
big deal.
00:41:18
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:41:20
.0Bill Walker
they They are not going to be as good once once conference play begins.
00:41:24
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. yeah
00:41:25
.0Bill Walker
That is about it.
00:41:27
@NoConfForOldMen
Okay. Nice.
00:41:28
Tom Lidiak
How about Jissel James coming back to Cincy?
Big 12 Conference Dynamics
00:41:31
@NoConfForOldMen
Well, they're desperate, right? Like you said, you had a bunch of coaches on the hot seat. They're not winning. Yeah. And he's desperate.
00:41:40
.0Bill Walker
I didn't hear that.
00:41:42
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Just today.
00:41:42
Tom Lidiak
Yeah, he brought him back.
00:41:43
@NoConfForOldMen
Just announced it.
00:41:43
.0Bill Walker
it's just today.
00:41:44
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah. Yeah.
00:41:45
.0Bill Walker
Was he just, I'd been looking to find out where he was and I haven't been able to find him anywhere.
00:41:48
Tom Lidiak
i the Rumor rubb I heard was he was in Houston in some type of rehab.
00:41:56
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, that's, that was the rumor.
00:41:57
.0Bill Walker
No, really? Hmm.
00:41:58
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, that was the rumor.
00:41:59
Tom Lidiak
Mm-hmm.
00:42:01
.0Bill Walker
Interesting.
00:42:02
@NoConfForOldMen
So, uh, so we'll see. I mean, for me, I had again, UH first, Arizona second, ISU third, BYU fourth, tech fifth, and KU sixth. I would only make two changes at this point. I would swap Arizona and U of H. So Arizona first and UH would come in second.
00:42:21
@NoConfForOldMen
And then my five and six Tech and KU, I would swap. I put KU at five and Tech at number six at this point. Now, I will be honest and say that at this specific point in time, I think Iowa State is actually playing better than us.
00:42:39
@NoConfForOldMen
But I think as the conference game started and as we go through and we don't play ISU until later in conference. And so I think what...
00:42:45
Tom Lidiak
February 16th.
00:42:46
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, so I think through conference play, we will pass them by and end up being second behind Arizona.
00:42:54
.0Bill Walker
I agree.
00:42:55
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, now for the bottom six. Now, I think Utah is the worst team in the league, and I overrated West Virginia. actually gave more credit to the new coach, and I don't think he's got the horses this year, especially after a lot of kids. It transferred out. I am actually very pleasantly surprised by both, as you guys had highlighted, Lutz at OSU and Hurley at Arizona State.
00:43:18
@NoConfForOldMen
And two teams, well, I won't mention Colorado since we've already talked about them, but I say they are definitely one of two teams that no one is talking about at all. you know Colorado with wins over Providence and Washington. And then as you had highlighted, Bill, UCF at nine and one.
00:43:37
@NoConfForOldMen
with wins over A&M and Pitt, it's like, i certainly didn't see that coming because they have a completely new team just like just like Baylor. Right. So it's it's crazy.
00:43:47
.0Bill Walker
Just like lot of the rosters the Big 12.
00:43:49
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah.
00:43:50
.0Bill Walker
rosters in the big twelve
00:43:51
@NoConfForOldMen
Yeah, I mean, I would say if I look at the the conference as a whole, we're definitely back to the no conference for old men Big 12 ways with no easy nights
Closing Remarks & Call to Action
00:44:00
@NoConfForOldMen
this season. So really should be a fun ride with conference games the rest of the way. And I think this season, I do believe four losses will be enough to win the Big 12 this year. So we'll see how it goes because it's going to be a gauntlet.
00:44:17
@NoConfForOldMen
Anyways, so that's it for our 66th episode of the No Conference of Old Men podcast.
00:44:18
.0Bill Walker
Thanks.
00:44:23
@NoConfForOldMen
Hope you all enjoyed it. And again, we'd really appreciate it if folks would follow, subscribe, or collect our podcast, depending on your podcast platform of choice. We are also available via Dave Campbell's College podcast feed as their only basketball-centric podcast. We're at the gokus.com website for those that prefer to digest the content that way. We appreciate the continued support from all. And so please give us a follow on our Twitter account, No Conference for Old Men.
00:44:47
@NoConfForOldMen
Thank you all again for listening. And I'd say be on the lookout for our next episode after the holiday season. And you can download and listen as that next episode drops. Take care, everyone.
00:45:02
@NoConfForOldMen
And happy holidays.
00:45:05
Tom Lidiak
And go Cougs.
00:45:06
@NoConfForOldMen
Go Cougs.