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Italy vs Belgium Preview: UEFA Nations League Lineups, Team News, Predictions & More (Ep. 460)
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The 2024-25 UEFA Nations League A Group 2 match between Italy and Belgium takes place on Thursday 10 October at 20:45 CET in Rome at the Stadio Olimpico. Carlo Garganese and Nima Tavallaey preview the big game. We look at the probable XIs, injuries and suspensions, and break down the game tactically before offering our predictions. Will Luciano Spalletti mastermind a third Azzurri win in a row after the Euro 2024 debacle? Or will Romelu Lukaku spoil the party?
This is an extended clip from this week's free Monday episode of The Italian Football Podcast which is available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and Google podcasts.
To listen to this & all other full episodes of The Italian Football Podcast (with no ads), go to Patreon.com/TIFP OR now also available on Spotify to become a Patron for only $2.99 USD per month (excluding VAT).
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Transcript
Introduction & Podcast Duration
00:00:02
Speaker
Welcome to the Italian Football Podcast. Yeah, for sure. OK, just before we finish off, with badge I love how you don't care when I go on these relegation battles. I can literally just hear you zoning out. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, well, I'm also conscious of the time. We're one hour and 15 minutes into the show. and I just love it. Every time I go on these relegation but like relegation battle tirades, I can just hear you zoning out.
00:00:31
Speaker
i It's true, I do sometimes.
00:00:36
Speaker
I don't say no on the Italy national team though, that's for sure.
Italy vs Belgium Pre-Match Overview
00:00:39
Speaker
and they They are back this this week and the UEFA nations league is back. Italy play twice. and so On Thursday, Italy play against Belgium in Rome at the Stadio Olimpico.
00:00:52
Speaker
hoping to make it three wins out of three in their group. Remember that the top two qualify for the quarterfinals of the Nations League. Italy are top with six points currently, followed by France and Belgium, who have three points. So a win here will will put Italy pretty much on the brink of qualifying, which will be really, really good and impressive.
00:01:12
Speaker
um so So let's do a little preview of the game again against Belgium on on Thursday.
Italy Squad Analysis: New Call-Ups
00:01:19
Speaker
First of all, Nima, I want us just to discuss Luciano Spelletti's squad selection and and what we think of it. So I'll read out the squad. The goalkeepers are Donaruma, Vicario, and a first call-up for Di Gregorio of Juventus. The fans are Bastoni, Buongiorno, Calipheori, Gabbia, who has got his first call-up,
00:01:38
Speaker
for for for italy from milan ocauli cambiaso bellanova di marco d'orrenzo uno doggi then the midfield is tonali ritchie fagioli flatesi pellegrini and a first call-up surprisingly for pizili of romer and then the attack is a lettergi at assbadori mosakqui and a first call up danielle maldini which continues the incredible maldini dynasty in which both his father Paolo Maldini of course and his grandfather Cesare Maldini both of course legends of the game both played for Italy and he could become the third in in that line which is unbelievable really what family so so that's the squad
00:02:25
Speaker
If we look at the first of all, which players, what do you think of the new call ups first of all? you Do you think, I mean, I think Gabbier is deserved. I'm happy that he's in there. Gabbier deserves. yeah I think Gabbier deserves. I think Maldini kind of, I mean, I wouldn't have picked him, but I don't i can't complain too much because I think he's been.
00:02:44
Speaker
good for for months or two. but um And also, you know given the situation that we have up front, there's not really that much to... you know he could He could have revived the Patrick Cutrone project, but I think he would have been oh heavily criticized for that. Yeah, I mean, I think that Maldini is partly a sign of just our lack of options, isn't it? Yeah, it is. Also, at the same time, I'd rather him give someone like Maldini a try.
00:03:12
Speaker
see what he's like rather than going with someone that we know already is not is not up to it. Do you know what I mean? Someone that we tried before that we know he's not going to be good enough. and it probably includes Zakhani. Zakhani has been good this season, I like him, but 29 years old, he'll be 31 by the time of the World Cup and we know he's not really suited to this system either, so you know we might as well try somebody else. you know If he's not good enough, he's not good enough. Pizzilli is a little bit of a surprise in one, I think maybe a bit premature given
00:03:43
Speaker
How little, yeah so little he's played. I was going to say it's it's an interesting call up. It's a little bit premature maybe in terms of what he's actually done. But I mean, but Shaniin is injured. he he was dead He would have definitely been in here.
Goalkeeper Debate: Di Gregorio's Role
00:03:57
Speaker
um The Gregorio I think is fully deserved, he's been really really good this season. What's interesting about the Gregorio is that you know obviously he's brilliant with his feet and in terms of kind of like the build up play, depend you know if Spelletti wants to be more natural you know with that probably more suitable having said that though you know Spelletti was stuck with Meretz who can't play with his feet at Napoli and natalie still did pretty well pretty well and now he's obviously got Donnarumma who's not very good with his feet and I just can't see dropping Donnarumma so be honest with you but yeah it's just an it's an interesting um it's an interesting dynamic there that that they have now got somebody who is fantastic with his was you know one of the best with his feet in the squad but in terms of the players that are not there
00:04:44
Speaker
The controversial ones are, well, first of all, the ones that are injured are Barela and Preccinini, so they're out because of injury, and Kiesa as well, because he's he's still not still not fit enough, really, to to to to to get to be called up. You missed the European Champions League game against Bologna through injury, and then that was it, really, from there.
Juventus Exclusion Controversy: Gatti's Case
00:05:03
Speaker
um But the there's two controversial ones, are the two Juventus absences,
00:05:07
Speaker
Gatti out of the squad, given how brilliant he is. That is a little bit surprising for me. The only explanation I can think is that Spelletti feels that, and I feel this, I feel that Gatti... Left-footed players. Oh, right, yeah. Well, I feel that Gatti is better in a four. I think he's more suited than in a four. I think that when he plays in a three, he has a bit of the scrennier symptom of being a little bit not so good defending laterally in space, like moving quickly in space, covering those gaps between the full the the wing-backs, you know, covering those areas where when he's centre-back,
00:05:46
Speaker
he he can play in a more of a compact defense, where he can hold the line, he can make use of his kind of old-fashioned defending, which I think he's very, very good at. and Whereas you know when you're in a three, you have to cover more space, and and that that's my only that that can be the only thing I can think of, because he deserves to be in the squad otherwise.
00:06:10
Speaker
and ah For me, it's more surprising Caleb Ocoli. I like Ocoli in the Serie A. I don't know why he keeps insisting with him. like what what's the What's the thinking there? It can only be that he's thinking long term with him, can't it? yeah Because he doesn't deserve it right now, does he?
00:06:29
Speaker
no yeah yeah And the midfield is the i mean look at tell tell he's the other one. and what you I don't get that. Do you think it's a causal now? I mean, what do you think? Well, it is. Of course it's a causal. What's happened between them? Like, what is this? Is it a footballing reason? Well, why don I don't know. and That's what I'm wondering. is Is it a footballing reason? Is it more than that? um What's the issue?
00:06:54
Speaker
Yeah.
Locatelli's Absence: Tactical Oversight?
00:06:57
Speaker
Yeah, I find it strange because he's been, he has been really, really good. I mean, he has been rotated at Juventus, but he's been really good this season for UB. And I don't, I don't know. It's weird, isn't it? The only thing I can think of is he thinks of him as the deep lion player and now he's Richie as, and maybe Fagioli are those players he sees as the deep liars. He doesn't think he has a tactical place in the team.
00:07:25
Speaker
ah they no i I don't I don't understand why Locatelli can't be and in this team if you're going to play a 3-5-2. It's a midfield three. What's the problem? I don't get it. um I really don't get it. um Tonali, Ricci, Fagioli, Fratesi, Pellegrini, fine. But why is like instead of Pisilio, I think Locatelli should be there. Yes, I do think that. That to me, I don't get.
00:07:51
Speaker
Yeah, I don't get it at all. Okay, probable 11.
Projected Lineup for Italy vs Belgium
00:07:58
Speaker
Obviously, we're recording this on Monday, so this could change depending on training and everything, but it's probable you'll stick with the 352 or the 3511, and that's for sure.
00:08:10
Speaker
and We're looking at, in defence, we're looking at goalkeeper Donnarumma and then you've got Di Lorenzo, Bastoni and Calafuri. The only doubt really is if Buongiorno plays, he could play potentially in the centre with Bastoni on the left and Calafuri dropping out. Or, as has been suggested, I've seen that Di Lorenzo could drop out and Calafuri could go right centre back because he's actually been used by Arsenal at right back.
00:08:41
Speaker
this season by Arteta, he's so adaptable for Calafurio, he can literally, he can basically play in any position, I feel. I feel like you could almost play him up front. Maybe he's the answer to Italy's striker problem, just playing with Calafurio, attack, you know, blame as a forward. I mean, you can play him anywhere. So when that has been suggested, I don't know whether he will do that. But then the wing backs, I think probably nailed in, Cambiazzo and DiMarco, I think that's pretty confident, and that'll be the case.
00:09:08
Speaker
And then in midfield, because Bareilles are out, I think Flatezi and Tonali as the more forward players are probably that should be, they should play. Then you're looking at Ritchie or Fagioli is probably what we're looking at. We're looking at one of those two as the deeper line player. I would like to see Ritchie, I want to see him stick with Ritchie. I want him to get a run of games and nail down that pat position.
00:09:38
Speaker
certainly for this game. And then in the tack, Rettagi, I think, should should start. I mean, the form that he's in, he has to, surely. And then, it's a bit of a balotagio who is going to play as the the other. Is it going to be Raspadori, who seems to be the favourite for now, or is it going to be more of a midfielder, so like a Pellegrini?
00:10:00
Speaker
like they did against France, or is it goingnna is he going to go for two more out and out strikers and put Keene in there? So that's the those are really the question marks for Italy. Yeah, I think he's going to, I guess Belgium is going to go with the 3-5-1-1, like against France. Rettigy is a sole striker, maybe Pellegrini is the number 10, and then have f frat then I think he's going to have Tonali Ricci and Fratezi um and as the mid-3 behind. And on the wings, I think it's going to be de marco DiMarco and Cambiazzo, and I think he's going to start the Lorenzo Bastoni and Calafiori with Donnaro Mengol. I think he's going to go with 3-5-1 against Belgium. I think that's
Belgium Team Analysis: Missing Key Players
00:10:41
Speaker
what he's going for. Yeah, as for Belgium though, um I mean, this is a very but different Belgian team there than from what we've seen really over the last kind of 10 years. The golden generation is is gone. I mean, Hazard, Mertens, Batonga and Aldo are out. They're all gone, but also
00:10:57
Speaker
Courtois retired because he doesn't get on with the coach. De Bruyne and Lukaku are back. De Bruyne is injured. Lukaku Kontay is demanded probably that he rest so he can have a two weeks. One week is not enough to prepare for a game, so he gets two weeks to prepare for but then na the NAP game. So Lukaku is not there. He's not there. so This Belgium team on paper is very, very much weaker. It still has quality in attack. I mean, there's still, you know, there's docu, there's Trossard, there's Bakayaka from PSV, Openda, there's De Quetzalara, of course, as well. So there is quality there in attack. But if we're looking at the probable formation, they're playing a 4-2-3-1. We're looking at probably Castile's in goal. You know, I think it's in Saudi Arabia now, or in the Middle East. Castania,
00:11:46
Speaker
will definitely be one of the full back positions. We're probably looking at Fez and Tayat, who used to play for Bologna in Serie A. De Bast or Decoia Pro, so that's the back, as the the other full back, that would be the back four. Then in midfield, it would be two Tealemans as one of the holding midfielders.
00:12:02
Speaker
together with It would usually be on nana, but he missed he's missed the last game for villa with a with a with an injury Tedesco said that he will be there though So we'll see whether he starts if not, it'll be probably man gala from leon and then the the the the attack it three attacking midfielders we're looking at either look a backyard or back a yoko as the right wing and Daku will probably be on the left wing and then in the centre, we're probably looking at De Catalada or maybe they can find a way to put Trossard, to get Trossard in there. And then the striker, we're probably looking at Openda from Leipzig. So that's the team. um It's not a team that really scares me. It's a team that can be quite dangerous. I think there there are some talented players in attack. but
00:12:50
Speaker
it says It's a team, if I'm given a prediction, nemer um it's a team that I'm i'm expecting Italy to win this game and I'm going to go 2 goal win for Italy. I think this is um one of those games where I think Italy are happy.
00:13:06
Speaker
with a draw. They don't need to win this game. um they got They got six points already. um And I think from now they're just going to try to micromanage this. I mean, in in all reality, they only need four points, if we're honest, to to to qualify,
Match Predictions: Italy's Strategic Edge
00:13:23
Speaker
I think. I don't think they need any more than that to finish in the top two and and reach the quarterfinals.
00:13:28
Speaker
um and Great start. So I don't think Italy are going to rush this too much. um and And Belgium, you know, they're in the middle of a generation or change. um So, you know, they they're on three points. they They wouldn't mind a point here. Obviously, they prefer to win to go level with Italy on points and and go ahead of them in terms of head to head. But I think I don't I expect Italy too to at least draw this. That's where I am.
00:13:55
Speaker
Yeah, I i expect Italy to go for the win um and try and go for it. though I think Belgium are there for the taking with all their absences, no Le Carque, no De Bruyne, no Courtois. They're three good players and I think they should ah ah the optimiz go and try and win this.