Transcript
Speaker: Welcome to the Italian football podcast.
Speaker: Before we finish off with our bad show prim face and a new segment, Euro 2024 draw. Let's react to the draw, shall we? Italy get a very tough draw. They're in group B with Spain, Croatia, and Albania. They're opening gamers on June the 15th against Albania in Dortmund. Then they play Spain on the June the 20th in Gelsenkirchen. And then they play Croatia as the final group game.
Speaker: in June the 24th. What's your immediate reaction to the group? The second toughest group that they could have gotten. I wanted to avoid group D.
Speaker: because Netherlands, Austria, France would have been a nightmare. But this is not that much easier. It's easier, but it's still the second most difficult group they could have gotten. I don't like the fact that they play their opening game against Albania. I would have preferred if they played Spain or Croatia in the opening game to get that out of the way, because now they have to get they have to beat Albania and that opening game.
Speaker: And if they don't, they will be in trouble. And I don't like that. I don't trust this Italy enough to see them chase against Spain. I don't want them going into a game against Spain and chasing and exposing themselves and allowing Spain to destroy them on the counter.
Speaker: So I think Italy's fate will be decided in that opening game against Albania. They have to win that. It's as simple as that. Croatia are so difficult as well. Spain are not as good as they were a few years ago, but they're still a good site. It's a difficult one. It's a very, very difficult group. There's no doubt about that.
Speaker: Yeah, it is a difficult group. It's also... And I look at this group E and it pisses me off. I mean, what is the state of group E? Belgium, Slovakia, Romania. I mean, come on. Yeah. No, I know. I know. It's not good, is it? I mean, it's interesting. I think the group itself is...
Speaker: It's going to be tough. We know the quality of Spain and Croatia. Closest of the time, we'll do a more in -depth analysis of all these teams. But I mean, Croatia, they're one of the most experienced teams. And they always, I mean, look how well they've done in the last two World Cups.
Speaker: final, semi -final, that special midfield still has one more midfield, one more tournament left in them, Brozovic, Kovacic and of course Luka Modrić, who's still playing at any state in the high level. Guardiola at the back of course, although he hasn't been doing amazingly well at City, maybe lack a little bit in attack Croatia, but the worst thing about Croatia is
Speaker: They are our bogey team, Italy. Italy struggled in its Croatia all the time. I think Italy have only beaten them once in their history in about over 10 games or something around that number of games. They have such a bad record against Croatia. So they always worry me. Spain, of course, they've got a really special midfield, amazing midfield, although they might not have Gavi for the tournament because he's done his ACL.
Speaker: And Pedri's always injured as well, so it's what he could do with him being injured. But obviously, Roger, he's an amazing player. They've got quality in attack, Marretta's having a great season, so they're always going to be difficult. And then Albania, you know, there's a lot of Serie A connection there, isn't there? It's almost like a derby, the Albania game.
Speaker: I was going to say Albania are essentially a mid -table seriasa. So they know Italy inside out. That's not going to be a walk in the park for Italy at all. So Italy need to come switched on. And I think they will. I think between now and the Euros, Spalletti needs to really start
Speaker: rubbing that head and getting his shit together for that tournament. Because I think the being there is great, but for me, and I keep saying this, the road to the World Cup and winning the World Cup in 2026, which I think Italy should have, mount a serious challenge, it starts now. I don't really care about the Euros, if I'm perfectly honest. For me, it's about the World Cup. Italy have to get a result at the World Cup.
Speaker: not win it necessarily, but they have to get there and they have to go far. Italy as a country, Italian football needs this, so having won the Euros. So I want to see him really start to lay a two -year plan, a two -year
Speaker: a project towards that and I want it to start with the Euros as well to show what Italian football is and what his Italy is.
Speaker: going forward and that it starts against Albania. They have to be. No, that's an absolute must -win game. That's a must -win game. They have to go into those last two games, at least with three points on the board. Otherwise, there is the risk of going out. The good thing is that, remember, there is the safety net that four of the six third -place teams qualify
Speaker: So, you know, you finish third, you've got a good chance of qualifying if you at least win one of your games. And so that is important when you're in such a tough group like Italy are in. Then if Italy, I mean, we shouldn't look too far past the group, but the route, obviously, depending on how far Italy think they can go, the route
Speaker: is important. The knockout route is important. Now, if Italy win the group, they play a third place team from groups A, D, E or F. So winning the group could be absolutely, well, would be absolutely massive for Italy. And I'll tell you why, because they would then probably play the winner of the Germany group in the quarterfinals.
Speaker: which isn't which isn't too bad. Germany, of course, will always be difficult because they got in Germany and it's in Germany, of course. But, you know, this isn't this isn't a top Germany team. But the most important thing of winning the group is that they would almost certainly miss England and France till the final.
Speaker: If Italy win their group and England and France win their groups, which you'd expect them to do, then Italy can't meet either England or France till the final. Now, if you've really got ambitions to go all the way, and I think Italy were probably a little bit short of having the quality to go all the way, but let's say we want to go all the way and win this tournament, then missing England and France till the final,
Speaker: really gives you an opportunity to get to the final, doesn't it? Because I've said before, I think Italy can fight it out with any other team, other than England and France, who I think are a little better. So, will Italy need to go out to win the green, I think?
Speaker: If they were to come second though, Nimmer, they would play the runner -up of Group A. So that's the Germany, Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland group. So that's not too bad. Assuming Germany win the group, you'd take a second round game against a last 16 game against Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland in a major tournament. No worries whatsoever. But then you play the winner of Group C,
Speaker: or third place team in the quarters and that's going to be England. So this is where you finish is important. Then if they were to be England, they would then play like you play France in the semis, assuming France.
Speaker: win their group and then win their knockout games. So again, better to come top. If Italy were to qualify as a best third place team, they would play either the winner of group F or the winner of group E in the last 16. That would be
Speaker: probably Portugal or Belgium in the last 16. And then after that, it's impossible to predict. I mean, it's quite hard to predict full stop because France might not win their group. It doesn't always go the way you think it is. England might not win their group. They might come second.
Speaker: England are winning their group. I think England are winning their group. Do you know what I mean? You can never really, you can never really knock these things out properly. If Jude Bellingham or Harry Kane are injured, or if Mbappe misses the tournament for France, or, you know, he's through some. Blauwitsch turns into Pieroncina Blauwitsch. You never know, you never know. But I think that group C and
Speaker: I mean England have got the best draw, there's no doubt about it. They've got a group stage for sure. No, but if you look at their route, if England win the group, they can't meet another group winner until the semi -finals.
Speaker: England seemed to get the... I mean, the last few tournaments England have had such good draws in terms of the routes to the latter stages. Well, the last Euros for sure. And the World Cup as well. They didn't play anyone in the World Cup. The Euros for me was the Denmark route to the semi. UEFA do these things. What are you going to say?
