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The Russian Disinformation Tsunami | Dr. Pekka Kallioniemi
186 Plays7 months ago
In this episode, Project Liberal’s Joshua Eakle and Max Marty sit down with Dr. Pekka Kallioniemi, founder of Vatnik Soup and an expert on Russian disinformation. Dr. Kallioniemi, known for his work in social media and online information operations, explores the intricacies of disinformation and its impact on America's political system. Topics Discussed:
- The differences between misinformation and disinformation.
- Russian tactics, narratives, and how they differ from other nations.
- The scope of Russian influence in the United States
- What we can do to combat misinformation
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Transcript
Introduction and Overview of Disinformation
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome everyone to the latest episode of the Project Liberal podcast. My name is Josh Eckle. I'm the president of Project Liberal. And I'm joined today by Max Marty from our steering committee. Thank you for taking the time again, Max. Greetings, everyone. Greetings. So today we are going to have a conversation about something that is very pressing in the news, ah Russian discourse dominating our conversations of the United States. And we're joined today by Pekka Calio Niemi from Vatnik Soup, who is the author of a new book called Vatnik Soup, which is ah the ultimate guide to Russian disinformation. Pekka, thank you for taking the time to talk to us, all the way from, ah from I guess, in Kyiv or Finland, wherever you are today. We appreciate the time. Good to be here. Today, I'm in Riga.
Understanding Disinformation, Misinformation, and Malinformation
00:00:47
Speaker
I'm at this Disinfo 2024 conference, so it's a very timely topic here also.
00:00:54
Speaker
Yeah, we've spent a lot of time talking about this issue um within our audience. It's something that our audience cares deeply about, and it's something that many people in the United States are very concerned about the effort for of russian and Russian influence and Russian disinformation in our conversations and our elections. um So I know that you've spent a lot of time in your career research doing postdoctoral research on human technology.
00:01:18
Speaker
I know that you have a, you know, incredible academic interest in state of the art technologies. And I know most recently over the last couple of years, you have spent your time combating directly Russian disinformation in ah the Western world. So what we wanted to do with this conversation was open it up ah to talk just broadly about what is disinformation. And then we wanted to go and talk more about how to recognize Russian propaganda, the evolution of it, the aim of it, the the scope of it, and really hopefully leave this conversation by giving our audience the tools that they need to really identify it and it's combat
Can Disinformation Ever Be Justified?
00:01:56
Speaker
it. So I was going to open up the you know the conversation with you just to ask one really broad question, which is, what is disinformation and how is it maybe different from misinformation?
00:02:06
Speaker
Okay, so I think these are the terms this information and misinformation are often mixed up in ah also in and just like traditional media. So this information means information that you know to be false and you still decide to spread it. So you know it's bullshit. I can use the word bullshit because it's an academic term now. ah And you still decide to spread it, um especially like online in online context today. Misinformation is is done. it's It's not on purpose. So if you if you if you spread a false narrative, but you don't know that it's false, then then it's but in academia it's referred to as misinformation. So that's the that's the
00:02:48
Speaker
uh kind of distinction between the terms then there's also malinformation which is kind of interesting it's it's basically uh true information ah that still has kind of malign intent in behind. But that that's it's I don't really agree with this, this but this information and misinformation are the main, main terms used in in this ah context and this this research area. So as as yeah is DIFS information always bad? I mean, is it so is it like for example, I'm thinking here of ah
00:03:23
Speaker
ah When we, during COVID, when Fauci was saying the thing about masks, well, they might, you know, theyll no, they don't work, et cetera, but he was saying that probably knowing that there was good evidence that they did work, but he was saying it because he was worried that there weren't enough masks.
Impact of Disinformation on Politics and Democracy
00:03:39
Speaker
that So is disinformation always a negative thing? Should we always think of it it that way, or this is it useful disinformation?
00:03:46
Speaker
It depends on who who you ask ah for. I personally think that people shouldn't lie, especially, I mean, politicians do it all the time. It's basically their their job. ah But just kidding. But I mean, it's we have the same situation in Finland with the Finnish, Finnish former Prime Minister Sandamare in saying that ah people shouldn't use masks, for example, because we had massive like we didn't have enough of them. So basically, politicians were kind of and at fault. She was doing this kind of control of of information. But I still think that to me, it's it's bad because it's it's lying to the general population. And even even though the intent can be good, I still don't kind of condone it.
00:04:32
Speaker
i'm in I'm in the same boat. So, um you know, I think the the real question then would be maybe broadly before we go into the scope of Russian disinformation is, ah you know, when does being disinformed matter? So I ask that question because, you know,
00:04:48
Speaker
yeah ah We're in the middle of an election. Right. And in this kind of and in this moment being disinformed can obviously have a significant impact on your ability to have a conversation in a democratic system. But can you can you talk a little bit about how pervasive and how damaging it can be on the on the negative side.
00:05:08
Speaker
Sure. yeah I mean, there are a lot of examples of where where this information has caused massive harm and negative effects. Like, for example, if if you go to Africa, um hundreds of thousands of people have died because of this AIDS-related disinformation. So these campaigns are doing actual harm.
Russian Disinformation Tactics
00:05:27
Speaker
And of course, we we can also see it in in politics where basically we, I often call today's political kind of environment, this kind of post-truth politics, because basically truth doesn't matter that much anymore. we If we look at, for example, Donald Trump, he's basically lying
00:05:49
Speaker
ah almost all the time, if if you look at the fact checking in the in the debates and and so on. So there's so many lies that the fact checkers have hard time keeping up. So I think when there's kind of a malign and intent behind disinformation, I think that's when when being disinformed is is extremely harmful. ah Like just a very timely timely example with the with the tornado coming, Milton coming to to Florida. So there's a lot of disinformation going around this like Okay, some people are controlling the weather and so on or it's not going to be that I've even seen a narrative that did the whole thing is fake So imagine living in this area and you actually believe these stories and you decide okay I'm not gonna have a quite because this is just a ah just propaganda coming from the from the opposite side so it's of course it can be extremely harmful and when there's a malign intent behind
00:06:44
Speaker
ah Behind the information then then it's it's so it's it's a bad thing. Okay, so I I live in Tennessee East Tennessee was devastated by Hurricane Helene we actually had our governor come out about three days ago and say something to the extent of ah You know, first of all, he was combating these false narratives the ones that you were indicating Hey, you know FEMA and Teema are not confiscating people's supplies and he was kind of going after all these false narratives one of the things that he said was that I think that a lot of these narratives are being spread by by foreign actors, kind of insinuating that it was Russian foreign influence. So can you talk a bit about, just in the broad strokes and we can get into the specifics, about what Russian disinformation looks like in the you know broadly and how people can maybe spot it?
00:07:27
Speaker
um So first of all, I think we have to kind of remember that we usually give too much credit to the Russians. So whenever we see something like ah disinformation or or like a campaign that's that's spreading fake news, we say always say, okay, it's Russia, it's Russia. Most often it's actually not. Most often it can, there's a lot of guns.
00:07:48
Speaker
like For example, X slash Twitter is dominated by conspiracy theorists and a lot of their social media engagement comes from coming up with the weirdest stories you can come up with.
00:08:01
Speaker
and ill Most often the origin of these stories are are actually like Marjorie Taylor Breen is a textbook conspiracy theorist who's spreading ah theories. She was a supporter of QAnon. She has spread narratives on on weather control and and so on. So what Russia does really well is they amplify these narratives. So they make these stories seem much bigger. They they can spread them far and wide. They can use bot and troll networks to make them appear more popular than they actually are on on on social media. So they are masters at amplifying stories. ah But these days, their stories are
00:08:41
Speaker
like their own stories have quite a hard time penetrating the the mainstream media, for example, in the West. So they've they've been theyve they've been really good at that, but they they ah lot the West has kind of catched up on that.
00:08:56
Speaker
So at the center of it, and this is, you know, what I've gathered from from reading is it's more about, ah being you know, it's basically embracing a post-truth world. It's not necessarily about focusing on any specific narrative in many cases as much as it's just kind of introducing ah chaos and confusion, right? Now, in your book, I think you had indicated that there were some narratives specifically related to Russia that you see kind of spread by these actors. Can you speak a little bit more to maybe the the narratives that Russia does, specific narratives that Russia does try to push? So I think they've been extremely good at ah doing this kind of
00:09:38
Speaker
traditional conservative Russia versus the decadent West. So the decadent West is is basically it's one of their key narratives is is always emphasizing how things are going like culturally, West is in decline, we have a lot of these evoke elements and and so on. And that they are kind of destroying the Western culture, whereas Russia is trying to keep up to these traditional but family values and ah they being and going to the church like religion and and so on. They are really good at this even though it doesn't when you when you start observing like what's happening in Russia it's it doesn't really apply because they are a very secular country and there's a lot of lot of problems of course in Russia too.
00:10:22
Speaker
So it's it's a myth that's actually working really well in the West. um Of course, they also have a lot of narratives that work mostly in their own media landscape. So they usually but talk about like the World War II. They talk about the Great Patriotic War when they fought the Nazis, ah even though they were initially allied with the nazi Nazis, but they they incidentally forget that part.
00:10:46
Speaker
ah and But I mean, they they kind of have their own version of of what happened during World War Two, and that's that's what they all usually refer to still. And it's all well it's brought up when they talk about, for example, the war in Ukraine. So they they they kind of connect these two.
00:11:03
Speaker
ah when when you hear the stories about neo-Nazis in Ukraine, it's basically, Russia is saying that this is just the continuation of the the the Great Patriotic War. This time we only fight the Nazis in Ukraine rather than Nazis in Germany. So is is is it works really well in the in their local media media space, but it doesn't really, it used to work quite well also in the West. So there were a lot of people who were saying that neo-Nazis are in power in Ukraine, but I think this power has diminished over time, but they have their own narrative for the local local media space, but also like for for the Western audiences.
Evolution of Russian Disinformation from Soviet Era to Modern Day
00:11:42
Speaker
And Paco, when you say, when you say Russia disseminates this kind of narrative, this sort of disinformation, who do you mean by Russia? Do you mean, is this like a state sponsored, you know, is it is it is it coming down from Putin hands it to Russian intelligence that's then disseminates it through some sort of propaganda arm, or is it um um more dis diffuse than that, right? So it it seems to me like the most useful way to disseminate and this disit information is to get other people to do your dirty work for you, right? So just ah put out a narrative, get people within your sphere to believe it, and then they push out, then the they continue to amplify the message, etc. on your behalf rather than doing it directly. But who who is it that's doing the actual, who is the they in Russia of which you speak? Okay. um
00:12:35
Speaker
I'm going to give you an example. i'm going to go Let's go back back in time to 2012. Everybody knows Jevgeny Prigozin, who started the PNC Wagner, but he also started the Internet Research Agency, which was basically kind of a prototype or the first version of Troll Farms. This was ah back in 2012, 2013. So what they did, they they turned propaganda and online disinformation into factory work. that they They hired people.
00:13:05
Speaker
ah students, journalists, and so on, to work in in shifts and ah produce anti-Western pro-Kremlin messages online around the clock. And some journalists, including a Finnish journalist called Yesika Arro, found out about this around 2013. She wrote a book about it. It's a very good book.
00:13:26
Speaker
ah And then, basically, it expanded from there. At this point, it was very much a trembling, connected enterprise. But soon, and people or like, entrepreneurial people around the world realized that this is a good business. You can make a lot of good money on on propaganda, disinformation.
00:13:46
Speaker
And you started having a lot of these troll farms being formed in Israel, in Philippines, in Africa, South America, and then you could basically buy it as a service. And this is this is basically how it works today, is is you outsource it. So a lot of the main narratives are being probably spun in this in this Kremlin um like FSB, GRU, but then they are being outsourced to troll farms that operate in Ghana, Nigeria, Philippines. a So it's it has become Israel, it has become this big business, and it's a very lucrative business. But I mean, of course, they also still have a domestic troll farms, but it's it's an automated troll farms and bot farms.
00:14:30
Speaker
But now it's it's very much an international thing and you you can buy these as a service and um i mean social media manipulation is included in in this. So you can buy likes, you can buy shares, you can buy comments online. It's very easy. Just Google it and you can you can find a lot of services that that provide these things.
00:14:49
Speaker
And is this um is this something that that other countries that like to disseminate this information also do? like ah how How do other countries such as Iran or China, other other countries that are known to put out this information in this way, how do they operate differently than does Russia?
00:15:09
Speaker
um Okay, every country has a like ah bit of a different approach. if you if you look at I usually talk about CCP because it's I kind of want to make a distinction between between the Communist Party and China as a country. yeah But the the CCP operates a bit differently.
00:15:25
Speaker
ah Initially, they they were the the chinese the classical Chinese approach is that they praise China. China is the best country in the world. where they do the best They are best at everything and they they do this a lot with sports and and and culture and so on. ah Just praising the the Chinese culture and ah the the achievements of the Chinese Communist Party, but recently in in recent years they have also started kind of defaming other countries. So put it this is a very very classic Russian strategy. to okay Because you cannot say that many good things about Russia, we'll just talk shit about other countries in the West.
00:16:01
Speaker
ah And China has kind of adopted this strategy too. ah Iran has very much been in this sphere from very similar than Russia in the beginning. Maybe they are a bit behind. ah And then there are countries who try to kind of control the information space. So whenever there is criticism towards, for example, the regime in power, you will use these troll farms to kind of ah quiet down or or or silence these like Saudi Arabia is a good example of this so they they use these kind of troll armies to to silence the the dissidents and and so on. And how has um how has the how have the tactics evolved since the old Soviet days? I mean we know Putin for example was um was trained in the KGB and so he he he he was trained in the old the old approach to propaganda but
00:16:54
Speaker
um How have the narratives in particular, obviously that the specific tactics, you know troll farms and all that are all new, but how have the narratives changed since the since since prior to 91? Or have they not changed very much? It's just that the way that they're implemented is quite different.
00:17:12
Speaker
Exactly. They haven't changed that much. The medium has changed, the the the scale has changed, but the narratives are image very much the same. So ah one of the like the big umbrella conspiracy theories that is being spread aggressively today is the the deep state or or the global elites trying to take over the world. Like ah maybe you've heard of the Great Reset.
00:17:36
Speaker
ah conspiracy theory and a lot of this comes from a very old fabricated text called the Protocols of the Elders of Zion and it's from 1903 which basically its it describes a Jewish ah conspiracy to take over the world and and and kind of enslave people so a lot of these narratives they are just being kind of recycled from old stories and of course ah but the neo-Nazis and this comes from World War II um Bioweapons Labs, that was kind of the story right around the the beginning of the full-scale
Societal Impact of Disinformation
00:18:11
Speaker
innovation. It came from um Bulgarian-Romanian information sphere from around 2014. So a lot of these are just being recycled, like maybe a repackaged a little bit and then recycled. And all these corruption stories, they've been so used since forever. like
00:18:31
Speaker
Right now, Russia's main effort is to show Ukraine and its leaders as corrupt, that they are spending money on villas and yachts and and what i don't know like cars and what whatever. they're just like They're spending money that the US is sending, for example, as aid, which is, of course, ridiculous. But basically, the same story is about a different medium.
00:18:58
Speaker
And um there there is one narrative that seems new or different to me. In the old days, no i don't i obviously i I was born at the at the tail end of of the Soviet days, but I don't i don't have any recollection of what you know the propaganda was going around that and during that time. But I believe that the Soviet Union was selling its ah communism as the answer to religion, and that they still saw themselves as a very atheist movement.
00:19:27
Speaker
But now Russia sees itself as, it seems to me, as the vanguard of tradition and and and religion and family. This is the narrative that I hear them putting out, you know, against the the woke, decadent, liberal West. So is that is that a new narrative, right? That seems new to me. It seems like it would be new. um Or is it not? I mean, is that something that somehow was ah an aspect of the old Soviet days as well?
00:19:54
Speaker
um That's actually a good question. So I think in many ways we can see similarities in in Soviet Union promoting communism as an ideology or or orthodox ah Christianity as as a religion. I mean, that it's just ah it's just kind of a vessel of of information and disinformation that you can kind of spread through.
00:20:16
Speaker
ah so
00:20:20
Speaker
If you look at the Orthodox Church of of Russia, it has always been ah infiltrated by spies, KGB spies, FSP spies. If you're like Patria Kirill, who is in charge of the Orthodox Church in Russia, used to be, ah well, KGB spy. And I mean, once you become a spy, you don't really you don't really ever stop. So basically, it's just ah it's an instrument of spreading propaganda, state propaganda. That's that's how I see the the role of the Orthodox Church in Russia. ah It's mainly used as a propaganda weapon to promote the war and promote they did the Kremlin leadership and and kind of praise them at the same time. And I think Kirill is an old KGB agent in charge of this church. It's a good example of how kind of cynical the whole system is in that sense. but um
00:21:11
Speaker
ah In the old days, it was basically praising of communism. They were trying to spread it to different countries, Cambodia, Cuba and and and so on. So I really don't or Afghanistan is a probably a good example. ah So it's just ah I see it's just the other side of the same coin. That's that's how I basically see it.
00:21:33
Speaker
So I want to zoom back out a little bit to talk about the ultimate aim of this, especially as it might relate to the United States. But one of the things that you mentioned in your book, I thought was an interesting anecdote. So I want to tee it up here as well. So obviously we talked about this. It seems to me like the goal of Russian propaganda is to cause just massive distrust is kind of a breakdown of the ability for us to collectively come to some sort of truthful consensus on what the facts are. And obviously for democratic systems, that's incredibly destructive. right If we can't – if I can't call a friend of mine and have a conversation about what truth is, then we have a very difficult time as a democracy committing consensus on what things should be done to address the challenges that we face. So um one of the one of the things you mentioned related to the misinformation and how it causes harm was actually an anecdote I think that you had brought up from Russia.
00:22:23
Speaker
So you had you talked about how in Russia there was all this distrust around institutions and kind of the establishment that spread COVID misinformation and this trust distrust of just kind of the established medical order. They were saying that the COVID or COVID was very deadly and that you need to be concerned about it. And it backfired on Russia because once they came out with a vaccine, there was all this distrust and the vaccine Sputnik was not taken by you know people in Russia. And I think you mentioned that the Russian-speaking population of Lithuania was like exponentially harmed like ridiculously harmed by Covid So I'm curious as to like how you could talk about how this might backfire and just a little bit more on like ah Just this strategy in general and how it materializes in real life I Mean of course this ah
00:23:13
Speaker
the The style of Russian propaganda is is often referred to as firehose of falsehood. It's basically this high-volume ah approach where where ah quantity matters more than quality. It's like, okay, you just spread a lot of contradiction narratives and you do it en masse, so you actually like fill the whole social media space with these false narratives, contradiction narratives,
00:23:37
Speaker
And it creates this ah very confusing situation where people don't really trust anything anymore. Which is, of course, this was the reality in the Soviet system and it's it's been reality for for many Soviets and Russians for a long time. So, of course, it can also...
00:23:54
Speaker
ah affect and harm the Russian society. So basically, as ah like we are kind of reaching this post-truth era where the truth doesn't matter anymore that much. it's It's more about the emotions that the message kind of invokes in people. So I think Again, Trump is a perfect ah embodiment of this. So it's it's like, even if you fact check him ah all the time, it doesn't really matter because the people ah care more about how Trump makes them feel. And this this is, ah of course, this is very dangerous because they if you have an actual very
00:24:33
Speaker
ah I don't know, dangerous situation like a domestic situation, then it's it's very difficult to inform people because we've reached this kind of low trust environment. So people don't trust journalists, people don't trust politicians, people don't trust authorities. So when the people when people in the country would have to kind of collaborate or coordinate together, it's very difficult because there is no trust in in any of the institutions.
00:24:59
Speaker
so I think this is extremely dangerous to ah to a country. And I think the United States with this kind of two-party system is is extremely vulnerable to this kind of division that you can we can see in the country already. I think one example that I often bring up is is is the delay of of Ukraine military aid. It lasted like six months because of of the parties were just basically arguing with each other. with each other And Russia was really
00:25:30
Speaker
throwing gas into these flames and kind of just making making amplifying these narratives and it made it seem much bigger than it
Russia's Strategy and Global Influence
00:25:40
Speaker
actually was. So I think it's a good example of of if like ah widespread disinformation can make country extremely ah dysfunctional.
00:25:54
Speaker
So i'm I'm curious about this. I find it strange. um if i so like Putting myself in the seat of the the Chinese Communist Party, um if if my message is to is that China is great and you know the things it does are wonderful,
00:26:12
Speaker
And it doesn't have a lot of problems. um It seems like it's it's generally good. It's going to help the Chinese foreign policy. It's going to help China's goals geopolitically. But OK, so that makes sense to me. But Russia putting out the message that are are just so creating chaos, right, trying to create chaos politically within their adversaries seems like a dangerous strategy because it's it's harder to understand how that's going to turn out. It's harder to to to know where it's going to go. I mean, for example, um I think people believe that they have a clear idea of what Trump is going to do vis-a-vis Ukraine or or such.
00:26:57
Speaker
But that's that's a that's crazy. I mean, trump Trump can do all kinds of things, right? so And the more that you sow discord within a country, the less that its outcomes can be predicted, and you can you can try to manipulate where it's going to go. So how is it in Russia's interests to just create discord and havoc rather than um rather than merely get people to think better of Russia?
00:27:21
Speaker
um I think the idea there is that when when a country is divided, when when the country the country's population is is is ah polarized, they are more focused on domestic issues, more focused on infighting, which makes their foreign policy much, much weaker.
00:27:40
Speaker
so Again, we we kind of saw this with with the with the argument between the Democrats and and the Republicans. The Republicans wanted to tie the Ukraine aid to the border security. And when when when there was kind of a they they the Democrats then made a package on this, they they still kind of ignored it.
00:28:00
Speaker
so It's the foreign policy becomes extremely weak when when two parties are basically just focused on fighting each other. And I don't think Russia really cares who, of course they care who becomes the president, but in the end, even after the elections, you at the US will be extremely divided society and there will be a lot of infighting because of the two party system.
00:28:25
Speaker
and because of kind of um ah okay i'm I'm you can you can correct me if you disagree but this kind of ah low level of media literacy and critical thinking and kind of looking for for the truth there is not In that sense, I see US, I really like the idea of of of a free speech that you already had the level of free speech in the US, but also I think it should be combined with the good good high level of media literacy and critical thinking. And I don't think that's that's there in the US right now.
00:28:58
Speaker
i yeah unfortunately i couldt I could not agree more with you. i so I live that every day and see those kind of things you know sent by family members and people that I know and and friends of mine. It is making an impact. So let's maybe then talk about the impact specifically and the way this is materializing because you had mentioned the two-party system and and some of the chaos that's happening there. so Obviously, you've heard of the tenant indictment, I'm sure, of all of the DOJ indicting this, Lauren Chen from the United States, for basically taking money from Russian nationals and Russian agents to spread narratives within the United States. um The indictment had mentioned that this was very, at least alluded to the fact that this was very wide-reaching, like there are much more organizations or individuals that are tied up in this.
00:29:43
Speaker
So do you have any just broad insights on this specific indictment or just at least the scope of how this operation is functioning? Because I mean, it seems pretty clear to me after reading that indictment. I mean, I i think I posted about this. The stuff I'm seeing coming out from Tim Poole, for example, who's this massive influencer is almost Identical to what I'm seeing on Russian state TV like the narratives are one-to-one So can you you have any commentary just on that broad indictment and maybe the scope of those efforts specifically in the United States? um Yeah, so I mean 10 million 10 million dollars that's a relatively
00:30:21
Speaker
high amount of money being funneled from RT, Russian state statef-funded media to to American YouTubers. But I still consider, I think it's still just the tip of the iceberg. I think there are a lot of these operations that we are not aware of. Not sure if, for example, fbi the FBI is, ah but I still feel like we we don't really get the big picture yet.
00:30:44
Speaker
ah Because if we if we look at the the election interference that happened in 2016 with the US presidential election and also the BRIC Brexit referendum, it took us or it took organizations many, many years to actually kind of discover the scale of it. So I think what we what we see what we saw recently is just tip of the iceberg. I think there's a lot more money because ah we have a lot of instruments that can be used to kind of
00:31:15
Speaker
ah Hide the source like crypto cryptocurrencies and so on and also like shell companies in in countries like Turkey The Czech Republic and and so on So it's it's still very very tiny part of the whole operation. And ah a lot of most people are saying that, okay, what did what did they get with these $10 million? dollars You get ah videos that have 10,000 views, buts basically but Russia does. they They throw a lot of money at these operations and sometimes they they bear fruit, but most often they do not. So
00:31:51
Speaker
what What we saw, I mean, it was a big operation, but what was the actual impact? I think this is what people often often ask, but I think even if these... operations change the minds of, let's say 100 people in a swing state, let's say Pennsylvania. And I think that's already quite big effect on on on the US elections, for example. So yeah when we combine a lot of these operations, you can actually maybe see, even if the effect is incremental in one project, then if you have hundreds of these, the effect is actually quite large.
00:32:27
Speaker
Okay, so I want to hand it to Max here in a second, but I got one more question on that topic. So the one thing that's been difficult for me to understand, and we have a running joke in some of the groups that I talk about, about the difference between maybe a willing and an unwilling asset in the spread of Russian propaganda, it seems to me like some of these people, like I, like for example, I couldn't imagine that somebody like Tim Poole, after seeing the content that he's putting out and just looking at how similar it is to RT,
00:32:54
Speaker
could not understand that he was caught up in a scheme like this. But I've also worked within the the liberal libertarian movement for a long time and I've seen people spreading these narratives and I know for a fact these people aren't getting paid. I'm curious as to kind of how you differentiate or how you know, ah can we differentiate between willing and unwilling assets? How should we approach that kind of, like how do we know, is there any way to kind of tear yeah to maybe identify that or address that?
00:33:23
Speaker
Oh my God, if there was, the whole system would fall down. But I think i think it's still very difficult to distinguish between useful idiots and paid assets. yeah And that's that's basically that the biggest problem is because so many of these people are genuine. They genuinely think that there are global elites, the deep state that is trying to take over the world and and and enslave people and you you will own nothing and you'll be happy. All these phrases that they always always kind of state. So this is it's it's a kind of a it's a very genius system in a way that it combines paid assets who who understand what they are doing with with useful idiots who don't so kind of this this it makes an interesting soup of people where where ah these people agree with each other but some of them only agree because of the money that they they are being paid. ah But yeah so in in in the book I come up
00:34:22
Speaker
I borrowed or stole the system from counterintelligence, this acronym MICE. So what motivates these people? So money, ideology, ah compromising material and ego, basically. And so and of course, it could be a combination of the two. So ah for example, Douglas McGregor, probably his ego was extremely bruised after he was kind of declined in the US Army, or I'm not sure if he was in the US Army or Navy, but either way, then then probably the the money he got from RT when he did work for them helped to kind of, ah ah to choose this career path that he's now taken as a very anti, ah might in my view, very anti American person.
00:35:12
Speaker
it it seems like ah It seems like the best of those to find and to go for is his ideology because, of course, money it could be found out. And then if money gets traced and and then that gets revealed, then it discredits your your asset. you know and And now the asset like Tim Pool is no longer going to be taken near, I hope.
00:35:31
Speaker
I hope, hope, nearly as seriously when it comes to anything he says about Ukraine and Russia. and i catch I caught myself as I was saying that. But um but I would imagine that that yeah convincing people to do it for you for free is is the best strategy of all. But are there any other interesting high profile assets that you know other than Tim Pool that you think are are ah worth our talking, ah ah bringing up?
00:35:59
Speaker
as illustrative of what we're describing? um I think a lot of people disagree with this, but I think Elon Musk and Donald Trump are ah are helping the Kremlin in many ways, with with what they do and what they say. So if if you look at what, what for example, Elon Musk has tweeted throughout the conflict, I mean, what what what he did at the beginning of of the full scale war, giving up Starlink, that was incredible. That's probably one of the most important asset that Ukraine has.
00:36:33
Speaker
received, ah like in addition to the military aid. ah and But also we we see this kind of slowly, him slowly shifting towards these strange, very pro Kremlin narratives. Like he he he tweeted about Ruchov's mistake, which is something that only Russians speak about. There is absolutely nobody in in the American language that basically uses that like outside of Russian russian media space. So that's like these are very interesting ah kind of
00:37:10
Speaker
phrases that that he's used and a lot of the stuff seems to be coming from his old friend from the Paypal Mafia, David Sacks. So David Sacks came up with this this ah piece, ah negotiation proposal and Elon Musk basically shared it on on X and so on. But like if you if you look at it over time,
00:37:30
Speaker
Elon's been sharing ah memes anti Ukraine memes made by a Russian ah social media company. So this is is like the he's kind of involvement in in this. What I see as anti Ukraine and pro Kremlin propaganda is actually it's quite, quite remarkable. And I still feel like a lot of this stuff. ah The meeting with Putin, Donald Trump ah did in Helsinki, I think it was 2019.
00:38:00
Speaker
Yeah, and ah um like his businesses in starting already in the 80s in Russia. I think they are still a bit bit kind of interesting at least ah ah shady on on many levels. But like I don't know if you read about this, Bob Woodward's new book yeah i called War. like ah day day after Even after leaving the White House, ah Trump had multiple calls with Putin and even sent him these COVID tests when they were in in shortage. So they are still evidently communicating, which is interesting to me because it's still a very covert covert thing and we don't really know much about that.
00:38:39
Speaker
yeah And you add to the fact that he had taken, but at least this morning, I saw specifically British military secrets to Mar-a-Lago after he had left office, and then you add that to the fact that he's got personal relationship with Putin. It's absolutely horrifying. Max, where were you going with that?
00:38:55
Speaker
I was just going to say a regarding Elon Musk, I'm still hopeful because I think there's a lot of good he can still do and a lot of good he has done with as many companies as he's created and as many ah new technologies as he's pushed forth.
00:39:09
Speaker
i hope he i'm still yeah I'm still on the camp of hoping that Elon Musk gets out of politics in the coming after the election and goes back to doing what what really creates value and and pushes progress forward in the world, which which are all the all the things he's doing with SpaceX and and and Tesla and Neuralink and all the other companies. Yeah, he he he has so much potential that he's squandering and turning around with with this work. I hope that changes.
00:39:39
Speaker
um yeah Yeah, so, Peg, I want to talk a bit before we run out of time a bit about just how this propaganda manifests elsewhere. So there's obviously a specific strategy in the United States, but as you mentioned at the beginning of the show, this is obviously spread across the world, Africa um and across Europe, et cetera. So ah can we talk just briefly before ah about how Russian propaganda manifests in other regions outside of the United States?
00:40:09
Speaker
Definitely. I mean, their main focus right now is outside of the west Western countries by Europe and and and US s and Canada. So the so-called global south. So if you go to Africa, um in many countries, Sputnik is the most popular media on radio or on TV. ah in many many like in For example, in Mali, where Wagner is also operating.
00:40:35
Speaker
yeah but Also, the infrastructure there is mostly built by the Chinese, so Huawei and so on. So these kind of ah satellites and so on, TV networks and radio networks, they are operated by the Chinese and a lot of the content is is actually coming from the Russians. So Sputnik is is huge in in Africa and they they they promote and produce a lot of anti-Western material and it's actually working really well because of the colonial past of of of many countries like Belgium and France and so on. ah So they kind of have a good good ah reason to be to be very skeptical of of European countries. ah So yeah, there there is there is and there are massive operations there and many countries they do a lot of hybrid operations, which is basically combining real world things with online campaigns.
00:41:28
Speaker
One of them, I think this was in Mali, is the one of the biggest beer producers was a French beer producer. So Wagner kind of made an operation against this factory. they They destroyed everything and then they came up with the Russian alternative. So they brought in a Russian beer and promoted. They made a lot of viral campaigns around it and now it's the most popular beer and in So it's kind of the soft power combined with kinetic operations. And these are very, very effective because okay, what is the most popular beer in in Mali is is the Russian beer. And that's actually a big thing. So they are doing a lot of these these interesting things and malign things in in Africa. And then if you go to South America, RT is huge, you know, ah in South America. So for the
00:42:18
Speaker
Were you saying something? No, no, no, no. Go for it. No. OK. So RT is huge in in South America and, ah for example, in Brazil. ah So they they are, in many ways, they are controlling the media space in in in the global south. And this is this is basically where we have in the West. we It's our blind spot. So we don't really kind of recognize the scale or of of how they operate in these regions.
00:42:48
Speaker
and And you're talking a lot about ah Russian influence, at first we were talking about Russian influence here in the US and then in other countries, like you said, South America, et cetera, other continents. What about it within Russia itself? um how much How much do common Russians living outside the main cities, living in some province in Siberia, how much do they actually believe these narratives or buy into these narratives um versus Russian elites living in Moscow? how how what what is the you know ah Do these people actually believe it? do they just Do they know it's all a bunch of lies and they just live under it, they don't say much because it's dangerous to say something? What what is your assessment there?
00:43:32
Speaker
um My assessment is that those people who lived through the Soviet times, they don't believe much in anything. Like whatever whatever the Kremlin puts out, a lot of people don't believe it because, well, they lived through the Soviet times and it it turned out to be a big big lie. But I mean, what Russia is doing right now, they are they are in in they are they have become this kind of what's the word ah so they are focusing heavily on the war industry so they are country that puts a lot of money into any any anything related to the war so basically education system is fully
00:44:10
Speaker
ah used to spread propaganda. So if you start early, like media literacy, but in a bad way, basically saying that Russia is is the greatest country in the world and and the West is the enemy. So they start this in schools now, they they even teach kids to shoot and like say war is a good thing and and so on. So basically, they've started this extremely extensive brainwashing operation. And of course,
00:44:37
Speaker
If you start it early enough, it will eventually it will bear fruit. So we they will have this a young population that is extremely hostile towards the West and kind of ah promote the war, war and and so on. ah We see these these examples like if you go to China, it's it's they've used it ah ah extensively also and of course the Soviet times it's it's but basically they are they are transforming the the whole Russian system into this kind of pro-war society so you would say the propaganda is working it's not the people aren't just pretending to to to believe in this stuff but it's actually getting in there yes so
00:45:24
Speaker
I'll give you an example. and in in in During the 80s, there was a gay GP agent who defected to Canada ah called Yurippez Menov. You can still find the the interview on YouTube. In this interview, he says that all these operation information and influence operations they are not short-term things. They take time. They take 15-25 years. So that's what Russia is doing now. They are looking into the future, basically transforming the whole society to to be more pro-war and so on. So they are kind of thinking it long-term, whereas in many cases in the West we are thinking short-term, we are thinking the next elections and so on. in in
00:46:05
Speaker
in In Russia, in the Kremlin, they don't really have to think about this because they are in this extremely authoritarian system. It's the same in China. So you can basically plan all these propaganda efforts long term when they are actually effective. Then it becomes brainwashing.
00:46:21
Speaker
Whereas short term information operations or online operations, they they hardly ever change
Challenges in Combating Disinformation and the Role of AI
00:46:28
Speaker
anyone's mind. So people don't just magically start thinking that Russia is actually pretty cool. ah that's That's not how it works. So in short term, the idea is to polarize populations in the West, but in the long term, the propaganda efforts will try to change the whole society in within Russia.
00:46:46
Speaker
Oh, Lord, yeah. See, I'm concerned about the same thing happening in the United States, which I've been seeing these narratives get more and more effective. So but to to take us out since we're almost two of the hour, we want to zoom out and talk a little bit about big picture. So we touched on this earlier, um but I want to come back to it. Do you think the West is doing enough to combat this? um And if so, ah what do you think could be done to counter the threats?
00:47:17
Speaker
um No, it's not doing it's not basically we're not doing much. I think Europe is kind of trying to do something through regulation. But I don't I don't actually believe in regulation. I think it can be a short term solution, but not really a long term solution. ah I think there's also the saying that the US innovates and EU regulates. ah But i don't I don't believe in this kind of regulation. I think what we have done in Finland is actually pretty amazing. So integrating all this all these ah media literacy and critical thinking into the education system. So already in in Finland, already in in in preschool, we start talking about the the the consequences of lying, how they the how they can affect friendships and so on. And then it kind of
00:48:05
Speaker
goes from there throughout the whole whole education system. So it's it's something that's constantly be being discussed. And it it also includes ah new media formats like like, I don't know, TikTok is probably one of the most popular social media media fake platforms in Finland. So it's kind of integrated. All these new innovations are also included in this in this discussion.
00:48:30
Speaker
ah So I think that's that's a good approach. The problem with this approach is that politicians are not ready to talk about it because it takes time and it takes money. And you see, you it takes a long time, like in Russia, the propaganda that they're pushing, it takes time to see the effects. and Because we in many countries, European countries, we we kind of go through the election cycle. So it's kind of there's not that much long-term thinking looking into the future. But this I think this is the way to go. We have to create this idea of cognitive resilience, cognitive defense that
00:49:10
Speaker
ah has to be built against the Russian bullshit, the Chinese bullshit, ah the American bullshit, while wherever it's coming from. We have to understand that ah this may not be true. We have to like promote the idea of critical thinking and media literacy.
00:49:25
Speaker
Briefly on that point, um and i I try, one of the things that we try with Project Liberal, and I think Max and I try all the time, is try to put forward a hopeful and optimistic view of the world, right? But I'm going to get a little doomer for a second and just briefly ask you a bit about specifics. So with the advent of AI, and I know you've spent a lot of time researching advanced technologies and and things of this nature,
00:49:47
Speaker
I'm very, I'm deeply concerned because you mentioned in the United States, there's already this problem with economic literacy. I think it's a very big issue with older generations that find themselves much more susceptible to this. But with the advent of artificial intelligence, I mean, we're seeing the ability right now to create photo realistic video with a text prompt. um Some of these things I can identify, but I have a very I have a very big concern that in about a year I'm probably not going to be able to identify them, right? Like even me and somebody who spends as much time as I do looking at this. Do you have any just commentary on that specific element of the threat? Because I think that the first thing that's going to happen, we're already kind of seeing this with Elon Musk spreading AI photos and things like that and kind of taking his AI photo generator and taking all the restrictions off of it so you can generate photos of anything.
00:50:34
Speaker
Can you maybe think about like the role AI might play in this, and is there any anything beyond media literacy that should be done on that front? I think it's still a big unknown. AI, okay, so i'm i'm I'm at this disinformation conference right now, and there are two topics that are being discussed. It's it's AI.
00:50:54
Speaker
and I forgot the other one. But well, AI is it's is at the center of the whole thing. It's basically just like how how can we, what can we do about AI? And I think right now what we can do is observe. We have to see like, like you said, one year in AI ah development is is is a really long, a lot can happen. And this like, we see this,
00:51:18
Speaker
extremely big technological leaps like in one month span of one month we can see some some amazing things. um But I mean it's I think it it it will reinforce this idea of post truth era where people will start ah doubting everything.
00:51:36
Speaker
it's It's going to be very confusing times, when because even when you see something that's real, people will just say that it's AI if it doesn't fit their worldview. If it doesn't fit into their agenda, they will say, this is AI. And then people will, of course, fall for these these AI videos that will seem extremely realistic. So I really don't have an answer to that. It's a very active topic also in academia.
00:52:01
Speaker
But probably in policy too, like how how should we approach this? There have been some suggestions that all AI content should have ah blockchain kind of identification, that it's actually AI and so on. But how do who regulates this? Who is involved? this For example, is China and Russia, are going are they going to be involved in this kind of initiative? Probably not. So I honestly don't know. What what are your thoughts?
00:52:26
Speaker
Yeah, see, there is no there is no clear solution to this problem. I think that's one of the reasons why um we've talked about it so much, and both internally and with some of our guests. We just had a guest on last week that we talked about this for a long period of time. um I think, though to your point, the one thing we can do is media literacy, but this is a completely uncharted territory for humanity. This is not some sort of a niche issue. This is something that's going to fundamentally change the nature that we interact the nature of the way that we interact with truth.
00:52:56
Speaker
So no clear answer, but we're going to keep trying to find it. I have a suggestion. I mean, I think what, what, what I, what I try to, the people I try to surround myself and with and the.
00:53:10
Speaker
are people who are interested ultimately in truth, in what is true, in what is factually happened. um And and that's not that's not an easy thing to attain. That's not an easy thing to figure out. And a lot of times you have to triangulate in on what is true. So you you have a video.
00:53:27
Speaker
Well, you know what other sources that you trust are corroborating that this is ah this video is accurate and not just AI? Or um how likely does it seem like a video that is being produced in this way, looks this way, is or isn't being faked? Or is there some other trick being played? And I think just being interested in that. just not so So instead of immediately saying, oh, this is a video that confirms my worldview or disconfirms it, so I'm not going to believe it,
00:53:52
Speaker
Instead saying, taking pleasure in the idea that whatever you believe or whatever you think is what is actually the fact rather than just what what you want to be the case. um I think that's very important. ah And that would be my response to this. there's There's also one more thing that we've talked about, and I think we talked to, I think it was Destiny that we talked about this with when we were on his show was, you know, you could leverage AI as a tool to identify false AI information. So i mean you could wet you could use that weapon as a tool to, say, create our you know community notes or maybe assess video. So I mean i think there's some and novel approaches. but My understanding is that's kind of a losing battle, though. like you're always You're always one step one step behind you know the the the new the newest systems and the newest approach. And so you know there there might be some benefit to that, but I think it's ah it's it's tricky as well.
00:54:49
Speaker
I wanted to get back to one thing you were talking about, Peko, in Finland. You were talking about one solution being to improve the education system, to make ah to make young kids grow up understanding that just because you see something in a video or in a particular source on the internet or such doesn't mean that you should take it at face value when there are all these narratives and here's how propaganda works, etc.
00:55:15
Speaker
But that's much more difficult to do in the US. right and Finland is a much more homogeneous country. It's a lot smaller. The US is a very large, very diverse area. Education systems are are managed by by states and localities. and and It's very difficult to imagine creating that kind of environment here in the US, which I think is is I think I'd like you're saying there's so many more people being exposed to a fire hose of information, whether it's on tick tock or Twitter.
00:55:51
Speaker
A lot of more people trying to kind of be engaged in the big discussions, you know, having an opinion on Ukraine, having an opinion on all these other political matters. And that's very hard, right? It's very hard to within such a ah landscape to to actually understand what is or isn't true, who is or isn't right, to what extent, what is the likelihood that this is happening versus that's happening. um To me, that's just a very that's a very that's a lot to put on people. And I think in the past, and correct me if I'm wrong,
00:56:24
Speaker
or you think I'm wrong, but we didn't expect average everyday people to have to have opinions on you know what's going on in foreign policy and in Russia or in other parts of the world. It's just it's just a lot of a lot for people to have to deal with. So um maybe be one other solution in my mind ah is simply to to expect to be okay with people not having opinions on these things to try and not expect that everybody should be fully informed on these subjects and should instead be able to uh... to to say look i i don't have a strong opinion on that i'm not gonna vote on that you know i'm not gonna disseminate my views on that sort of thing so uh... i also find this for a very personal perspective uh... in my family
00:57:14
Speaker
I have family members who, ah you know, I walk into the house and into their house and the first thing I do is turn off their cable TV, um because I just know they don't, they they they, they grew up in a different world, highly educat educated, very intelligent people but they grew up in a different world. this is not i I cannot expect of them to have all the tools necessary to now be able to decipher all the things that we're talking about. So so maybe that's that's what I'm saying. do you have a ah Maybe my view is a little more elitist, and you can call it that, but I think the average person should just stop trying to have deep
00:57:51
Speaker
careful opinions on these things because it's just very difficult unless you spend a lot of time in it from a very critically evaluating perspective. It's very difficult to have accurate opinions on what's going on. I agree. I agree 100% and I don't think that's elitist. I don't i think it's just um I think ah like Okay, so let's take an example. How closely have you followed the the civil war in Sudan? Or how closely did you did you follow the war in Syria, for example? There are a lot a lot of them yeah there are a lot of lot of conflicts around the world and most people don't give a shit. so just Just to put it bluntly.
00:58:33
Speaker
and I like cognitive abilities are limited and ah many people would rather think about day to day stuff and and actually like positive stuff instead of war and and suffering and so on. I'm an activist that's why I'm so heavily involved in this kind of Ukraine information space and I'm also a researcher so that's also another reason why I'm I'm extremely biased in the sense that I'm i'm a pro-Ukraine. I'm not afraid to say it it it makes me biased, but I still try to kind of stick to the truth and find the truth. ah Because I value the truth highly, but not everybody should be involved in all this, in in these discussions.
00:59:13
Speaker
And they don't have to be. I know a lot of people who don't really want to even talk about this. And at once like it's been ah what ah nine plus 900 days of war now in Ukraine, more and more people as as time goes by, more and more people care less and less about Ukraine. That's the reality of it. And the further the conflict, less people care. So, ah I mean, i like if we if we look at the the Hamas terrorist attack on 7th of October, we year exactly a year ago,
00:59:43
Speaker
ah A lot of people have already kind of moved on from there and it's it's perfectly fine. you People shouldn't worry too much about all the all the horrible things happening in the world and they don't have to.
Personal Risks and Final Thoughts
00:59:57
Speaker
yeah ah Yeah. My concern is that the genie's out of the bottle with social media. It's almost like ah this is the world that we live in. now I couldn't agree more, though. I think that there needs to be more of this kind of humble approach if you don't know the answer to a question. You don't need to be forced to answer and go on the record. um To take us out, Max, you want to ask ah maybe one more final question and then we close out and talk about the book? Yeah.
01:00:22
Speaker
ah What you do, Pekka, is important work, but it's also, to my mind, dangerous work, right? You're exposing individuals and and seeing connections between them and what's happening in the Kremlin. um So, do you worry on a personal level that, do you know, you do do you stay away from from windows in tall buildings and, you know, do you do you do you worry about what you're having in your coffee when it's poured at a restaurant? I mean, you know, on a personal level.
01:00:55
Speaker
What do you worry about? um I don't really worry about those things that much. I think this is the 13th floor or something. So if you see an FSB engine coming in, you know what happened. I still drink tea.
01:01:09
Speaker
ah I still feel like I'm i'm um like a small fish in all this, even though it's all the work is has has an impact, but I still think ah the work is relatively safe. Of course, I've i've taken precautions. i've i've I'm in constant communication with people who can help me and and so on, but I think the... prop like I don't want to give into the fear. If I give into the fear, it will affect my work. I write something, I will i start thinking, should i can I say this? Should I say this? I don't want to give into the fear, but i will of course I will prepare for for whatever might happen. but i mean
01:01:51
Speaker
I think this is just another thing where we give too much power to the Kremlin or the Russian system. It's like, OK, they have tentacles everywhere and they can assassinate and anybody any everywhere. I think this is false. ah So i don't I don't want to worry too much. I don't want to give in to the fear. But it's a dangerous job, ah but somebody's got to do it.
01:02:16
Speaker
A massive amount of respect for the work that you do, Pekka. Genuinely, it's it's much needed in the United States right now, and it is and incredibly valuable. so ah To take us out, obviously we recommend the audience pick up your new book, Vadnik Soup, Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation. You can find that on Amazon. Do you have any other things you'd like to plug to our audience if they want to say learn more about this or dig into the facts? Or maybe find more about you and your work?
01:02:42
Speaker
um Not really. i'm im I'm happy that the book is out now. so and i actually I enjoyed reading the book. When I was writing it, I was thinking like this is going to be shit. But it's actually it's actually pretty good. We have the audiobook version coming out soon. um It's also... good because we we it's more like a story that is being told it's ah its a little different from from the actual physical book uh but i'm gonna continue publishing vatnik suits on on on on russian information operations and influence operations and uh the the programming propagandists because they are an endless supply there's there's infinite amount of these people useful idiots and pay the sets and i will i will keep on on um kind of
01:03:28
Speaker
raising awareness around this issue. Well, thank you again for your time. um yeah i Greatly appreciate it. Keep up the good work and so you know stay away from the 13 square windows. But at vatnicksoup.com, you can learn you could read more about the work that he's doing. So to our audience, I want to say thank you guys for listening. If you want to learn more about Project Liberal, we are a cross-partisan coalition of individuals committed to a free and open society. And we're fighting the authoritarian forces in the United States and around in the world that are trying to undermine those values.
01:04:00
Speaker
You can join our project at projectliberal dot.org, get on our mailing list, or become a member at projectliberal dot.org slash member. We greatly appreciate your time. Peck and Max, thank you again. Thank you. See you guys. You too. See you.