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St. Louis CITY on Fraud Watch? - Ep. 16
48 Plays2 years ago
Ari and Noah talk about the latest Seattle Sounders FC DUB against St. Louis CITY SC and preview the upcoming MLS Cup Playoffs.
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Transcript
Introduction and Catch-up
00:00:09
Speaker
What's going on everybody? Welcome in to episode 16, 17. I don't even know what number this is of lobbing scorchers. This is Ari Lillianwall. I've got producer Noah back here with me. Noah, say what's up to the people. Listen, folks, I've been in the content minds scraping up
00:00:33
Speaker
Everything for you. All right, every photo you ever see of an MLS player online. Yeah, my hands have touched Is this the excuse for why we haven't put one out
Road Trip Story and Podcast Delay
00:00:41
Speaker
in a while? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry about that We've been we've been off the game. I mean I was out of town for a little while I was helping my parents move from Santa Fe, New Mexico to Eugene, Oregon Dr. Doolittle
00:00:56
Speaker
Yeah, I drove 22 hours straight with a, it's like a sitcom. I had three cats, a Corgi, and a tortoise, and my sister and my dad, 22 hours straight. But honestly, that's not even that much of an excuse, because I've been back for two weeks and we just still haven't done one.
00:01:16
Speaker
Me too, you know, I work two jobs now because noah has like the rent is due jobs a job jobs plural jobs, but We're back at
MLS Playoffs Overview
00:01:28
Speaker
it now. That's all that matters and Let's just let's try and put a put at least a couple of these out during the MLS playoffs here There's gonna be there's gonna be takes to be dished. So
00:01:39
Speaker
We'll try and dish him. Thank you all for tuning in We've got a special playoff episode here for you today MLS playoffs are underway the wild the first wildcard games kicked off tonight
00:01:54
Speaker
We had the New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC play earlier this evening. The Red Bulls bammed 5-2. And then Sporting Kansas City, the club of professional wrestling enthusiasts. My former club as well. Yeah, they're currently taking on the San Jose Earthquakes at 0-0. So we'll see what happens with that one.
00:02:18
Speaker
So we're gonna pop open the bracket a little bit later and just do some takes on the other series that are going on. Make some picks, I think. Let you know how I see it shaping up.
Seattle Sounders' Playoff Prospects
00:02:34
Speaker
But first, we're gonna dive into Seattle Sounders takes.
00:02:38
Speaker
here to start it off. And it's been so long since we recorded one of these that I would say the vibes have shifted pretty dramatically since the last time we recorded. Things are actually, I think, looking reasonably good for Seattle going into the postseason. So we'll see how it actually pans out.
00:03:04
Speaker
Seattle finished second in the West Noah. They finished second in the West that they did on 53 points. I believe something something close a Historically bad Western conference finish 50 53 points 14 9 and 11 That's like sixth in the league right in terms of supporters shield total. I think something like that
00:03:27
Speaker
Well, so the top five seeds in the east all had more than 50. But, you know, I'm not even I'm not even going to go go negative there. You know, I'm not.
00:03:41
Speaker
It's no one else's responsibility, but the rest of the teams in the West to ensure that a team that gets 53 points doesn't finish second. Correct. If you haul 53 and that's good enough for second, then I'm not going to ding you for that too much. I get what you're saying. It's fair to point out that
00:04:00
Speaker
This year the West was not very strong and that's sort of why they were able to hover near the top of the table all year. So that's fair to point out. But the fact of the matter is they finished second in the
Lineup Changes and Impact
00:04:12
Speaker
West. They got home field advantage in the playoffs.
00:04:17
Speaker
And you know, I think more importantly than that though than the raw point total is I mean they're at nine unbeaten right now and They've looked a lot better on offense. The defense has continued to perform at an Elite level I'll say They've had one of the best defenses in the league all season both in terms of goals conceded and the underlying numbers and that's more or less held true over this latest unbeaten run and
00:04:46
Speaker
So I mean we could talk about what's been different. I would say Number one is I think they found a lineup and It's a pretty interesting first choice lineup because it does not include either of their DP's Nicholas Ledero or Raul Rui Diaz The way schmetz has been rolling it out first choice in in this last set of games here has been Jmo up top
00:05:13
Speaker
Albert Rusnak behind him at the 10 flanked by Leo Chu and Christian rolled on. Then you got JP with one of Obed Vargas or Josh Atencio. Take your pick, but it's actually low key been Atencio more these last few games. I know which yeah, we were talking. We were talking about that. Yeah, how Josh deserve more minutes. He finally got him and I think it's buried out actually that
00:05:40
Speaker
The team looks better in that set up. Yeah, I agree. Josh Tensio is playing really well.
00:05:47
Speaker
He's a, I don't know if I would call it a full on breakout campaign. He hasn't really had enough minutes for that. But I think there actually is a correlation between when he started getting the lion's share of the minutes there and when the team started to look a little bit better. There are other factors at play there. You know, Russ and I kind of being made the full time 10. It's probably up there as well. And obviously Christian rolled on coming back.
00:06:16
Speaker
Yeah, that's probably the biggest factor of them all we've talked about that all season But The result has been a nine game unbeaten run where they were still grinding out a lot of draws But they also have three wins in that stretch. They've had a couple games here where they've scored multiple goals so
00:06:35
Speaker
It's all great to see it's kind of cathartic Given how much of it has been kind of like pulling teeth and attack with this team this year it's good to see him hitting their stride and it's well timed because Now they got the playoffs and they're actually going into it reasonably healthy and in good form so
00:06:56
Speaker
That's kind of all you can ask. They've given themselves as good a chance as they could to make a run. They finished with a top two seed. They got home field. They're in good form. So kind of feels like it's all coming together a little bit.
Roster Transition and Ledero's Future
00:07:12
Speaker
What do you think and do you think it's a little counterintuitive maybe maybe it's not counterintuitive or what it says about the league that The second that Brian Schmetzer decided, you know, what are two aging DPS club legends? They're not performing and they're gonna sit for a what how old is
00:07:30
Speaker
How old are some of the players replacing them? You know, like, before their generation? Well, if you're going, I mean, if you're talking just the exact replacements for them in the lineup, you've got you got two veteran guys. That's true. That's true. And Albert Rusnak. Yeah. But
00:07:49
Speaker
I don't know. I mean, I don't know if it says much about the league. Uh, it does, it does say, uh, it, you know, it actually brings us to a point that we'll probably talk more about over the off season, but it's, it kind of indicates that this is a roster that is soon to be in flux in transition. However you want to put it.
00:08:11
Speaker
which we've talked about in depth. We have talked about that in depth, but that actually there was another kind of development with that in recent days with Nicholas Ledero basically confirming that this is his last season in Seattle and Nico made it sound like there's a little bit of friction there. I read about the drama a little bit, but
00:08:32
Speaker
I don't know exactly what happened, but essentially it seems like Nico was expecting more of a courtship to come back than he ended up getting. And I think the sounders brass is more on the side of it. We want to take a wait and see approach here and we're not willing to commit to bringing you back or making you a definitive offer.
00:09:01
Speaker
right away yeah as we're starting to negotiate which has been their mo in the past as well i mean it has it you know it's always a little tricky when you've got a club legend like this oh absolutely but i mean the same thing happened with aussie
00:09:14
Speaker
Yeah, no, it's a good point and those tweets are fire. His likes were even more likes were fire, but I think you and I was in those, you know, we'll do more Nico retrospective at some point, but I'm going to get them on the pot. The only that would be a fire.
00:09:34
Speaker
I mean, there's not much to say about his legacy or standing within club lore, other than to say that he's the sounder's goat. I don't think there's any question about that. There's a couple of names that you could throw in there. Ozzy Alonzo is an obvious one. You got Clint Dempsey, Opa Femi Martins. There's a select group that you could put in that discussion, but I just think that when you take into account trophies won,
00:10:04
Speaker
Like he's got the most decorated trophy case of pretty much Not just any sounder, but
00:10:12
Speaker
any player in MLS history when you factor in CONCACAF Champions League. I put so much weight on that. And he was the driving force, the engine behind that trophy. The way that he completely turned around the entire organization really in 2016 and led them to that MLS Cup. When you're making the list of transformative mid-season arrivals in MLS history,
00:10:39
Speaker
That's got to be number one. They were six, 12 and two. And then they ripped up the league the rest of the season and won MLS cup. Yeah. Crazy to be like the second that Brian stepped in. Basically Nico stepped in and you know, people will praise Brian all day as they should. They should also be like, damn Nico basically built that house with Brian.
Support and Membership
00:11:11
Speaker
Thank you for listening to the Soundwork Heart podcast network, which now includes No Sonietes, Lobbing Scorchers, and The Cooler Guild. We've been independent since August of 2023, but need your support to make sure it continues. Although this podcast is free, it's only made possible by your continued support. Memberships start as low as $25 a year, which not only helps make podcasts like this one happen, but also gets you access to everything we produce.
00:11:37
Speaker
If you're able to support us at higher levels, starting at $75 a year, you gain access to a host of other perks, most notably entry into our Members Only Discord, where the smartest, funniest, and most engaged commenters share their thoughts and ideas. To find out more, just visit soundrathart.com and click the subscribe button in the top right corner. Thanks for listening.
00:12:07
Speaker
hundred percent and You know so he'll always have a special place. I think in every Sounders fans heart yeah for that and you know you also got to Just the way he plays the game all-out effort all the time runs more than anyone on the field Works harder than anyone else on the field on both sides of the ball not many number tens like him
00:12:31
Speaker
play defense like him, cover as much ground as he covers. If you look at the fitness and running data from every single game that he plays, he runs the most on the field of any player by multiple miles every single game.
00:12:46
Speaker
So if this is the end for Nicholas Ledero, I mean it's the end of one of the greatest runs for any player in MLS that we've ever seen. So build the statue. Hopefully. Yeah, build the statue and
00:13:02
Speaker
Hopefully there's a time where that can get recognized and commemorated in the way that it deserves. But for now, Nico says he's all eyes ahead on the playoffs and trying to send it off with another trophy, so that's what the team is going to be focused on.
Playoff Optimism and Recent Performances
00:13:19
Speaker
You know, if there's any source of optimism
00:13:25
Speaker
For this team making a run, I think that decision day game in St. Louis can provide it. I thought that was a great performance. Noah, I understand that you didn't catch that game, so I can give you the lowdown. Yeah, no, I was actually at Huskies game.
00:13:45
Speaker
the most brutal udub game of all time udub football yeah udub arizona state oh you're at which was yeah it was back i didn't see what happened but i saw the score and it didn't look very entertaining yeah michael panics two picks a fumble it was bad anyway but yeah no i saw the i saw the highlights i was keeping track with my limited twitter access but so it sounded like a banger
00:14:10
Speaker
The the scoreline reflected the performance. I thought Seattle looked.
00:14:18
Speaker
Very good, to be honest. Pretty much all game. Two really nice goals. The sorts of encouragement from the first goal was that Christian Roldan made it happen. He got free down the right side in all kinds of space, picks out Albert Rusnak for a first time finish, passed Roman Berkey. And it was just kind of one of those moments that's a reminder of like,
00:14:44
Speaker
Yeah, that makes it way easier to score goals doesn't it when you have a player that says creative and smart as Christian rolled on on the ball They've been missing they've been missing that presence on the right side all year It was the number one thing That we talked about it was like a broken record every time we talked about this team struggling like pen Well, it would really help if they could get Christian back and you see it in a play like that right there and if he's
00:15:14
Speaker
inform and healthy in the playoffs as it seems to be. I honestly think this team can stack up with anybody at least in the West easy. So that's that's a great reason to think that they can make a run right there and we don't have to worry about Portland.
00:15:32
Speaker
Yeah, that's that's a great point. Yeah, we'll get into the FC Dallas matchup in a bit, but the second goal I liked even better. This is one of my favorite goals of the season actually because RBW made it happen. Yeah other side RBW he so
00:15:51
Speaker
For a lot of the season RBW has been getting minutes here there and you know, he's this big time prospect He's supposedly getting scouted by all these big six clubs and you see flashes of it but You had really seen him impact the game Consistently and make kind of the game-changing plays that you expect from a prospect of his pedigree
00:16:14
Speaker
And so this was the probably the biggest instance where you actually saw it. He's making a run into the box from the left side and He's trying to lay a low cross in and it takes a deflection off a Tim Parker They roll it on own goal, which is fair enough but
Player Injuries and Impact
00:16:35
Speaker
I say just give it to the kid. I was pretty annoyed about that. It's one of those I think I tweeted this but like it's one of those where I think I think I use Messi as the example but like any big time attacker like Carlos Vela or I don't know like Johnny Russell I don't know if he's big time but
00:16:52
Speaker
Whoever you want to name If they get like a slight deflection like that they're not ruling had an own goal No, like they they just did it because he's 18 in the defender. Yeah, but Needless to say it's like the Danny Leyva goal that got back on his debut that counts in my book RBW and Danny Leyva have a combined two MLS goals correct as far as I'm concerned
00:17:16
Speaker
Yeah, but it was great to see RBW just make a play. He was making things happen. They get a goal out of it, and unfortunately he strained his hamstring in the game, so he's not going to play at least the first game against FC Dallas, and I would imagine probably not the second game. It seems like there's maybe a possibility he's going to play in the second game, but we can hope
00:17:42
Speaker
because i would be a bummer if he doesn't get to play in the playoffs because he's just he's just coming on rbw is coming oh yeah he's he's everything that everyone's ever wanted new who to be and more he well the thing is is he's just much more multifaceted than new who he's a lot more fundamentally sound in attack
00:18:05
Speaker
you know, that's underselling it there. Well, I mean, you know, new still the better defensive player, but RBW has kind of been, uh, he's been looking good on that side of the ball too. So it's, you have more, you have more of a two way threat with RBW than new, even if you sacrifice a little bit in terms of defense, but it's going to be new who against FC Dallas with RBW sidelined.
New MLS Playoff Format Debate
00:18:33
Speaker
I need rbw and cody baker to fuse but you know it is it is kind of a thing where you see rbw create a goal from that side basically by himself and you know you don't get you're not gonna get that when you're in there no so
00:18:51
Speaker
You're actually with RBW coming out now and being injured You're you're kind of losing that element from the left side So they're gonna have to contend with that, but I do think with the boost that they've gotten from Christian rolled on and attack and Albert rest night in good form at the 10 and
00:19:14
Speaker
I don't know if that's enough to take you on a run all the way to MLS Cup, but I don't think it's impossible. So, overall, I was just really encouraged by what I saw in the St. Louis game.
00:19:29
Speaker
going into City Park, their stadium and keeping a clean sheet. Not easy to do either. St. Louis didn't get shut out very many times at home this year and they had, they had Edward Lohan out there. They had Joelle class out there. Also is getting heated, right? Yeah. So I forgot about that, but Joelle Klaus, unfortunately does not, he's not a fan of Alex rolled on. They did not end up getting along very well.
00:19:58
Speaker
See, I'm a fan. I didn't even really see what happened, but I do know that right after the game was over class kind of like right at the end of the game and after the final whistle, he kind of lost it. He kind of lost his mind and Alex was talking trash to him.
00:20:14
Speaker
I think they had been kind of going at it all game, and it kind of boiled over at the end. And Alex was letting him know about it. And Joel Klaus came over to the Sounders bench, and he was yapping. And then Yemar was being pretty funny. He was giving him a hug and trying to calm him down and laughing. And Joel Klaus was just not having it.
00:20:37
Speaker
So yeah, a little bad blood there. Maybe if these teams meet again in the playoffs, we'll get to see round two of Jawa Klaus versus Alex rolled on. It's kind of funny because Alex rolled on. I feel like he's traditionally not like a get under your skin type defender. He's going to compete against you, but he doesn't have that kind of reputation. So I don't really know what was going on, but it was entertaining to watch.
00:21:07
Speaker
Now they now there have this matchup with FC Dallas who are the number seven seed in the Western Conference and Seattle is going to have the first leg at home on Monday. Yeah, Monday the 30th that one I will be at.
00:21:27
Speaker
hell yeah it's going to be a festive occasion playoffs and so the way it works under the new format is they'll play one here one in the thriving metropolis of Frisco Texas correct and then if a third game is necessary then they'll play that back here at lumen and
00:21:49
Speaker
The thing to know about the best of three series is that you know, it's obviously first team to win two games, but there's no like there's no ties and there's no extra time. Yeah, I don't think no extra time straight to pks. Yeah, it's straight to pks, so you could have multiple games. Decided in pks. What are your thoughts on that? MLS soccer dot com. Sorry. Well, what are your thoughts on that?
00:22:14
Speaker
Well, I do think it's a little weird to decide like individual games in penalties like that. Like I kind of liked the two leg series when they did it by aggregate. So if it's up to me, that's probably how I would do it. Would you keep home in a wiggle? You know,
00:22:41
Speaker
I've never been like the biggest fan of away goals, but I understand why they do it because if you don't have it, it really, really incentivizes the road team to bunker. So that's, that's the reason that they do that. Uh, even though I understand it's like unsatisfying or a lot of the times, you know, you can, you think that, uh,
00:23:08
Speaker
You're you're about to win and then you realize the away goals, you know, that's frustrating but what I was gonna say is that
00:23:16
Speaker
actually kind of like the I liked the two-legged series back in the day and I like I like having a series of multiple games just the principle of that because the single elimination is definitely more exciting and it's way more random which can be exciting but I kind of like how over the course of multiple games I
00:23:41
Speaker
You really see who the better team is and the better team usually ends up winning that over the extended sample size, you know, and so it feels like it rewards the team that is actually better. Whereas in a one off game, you know, random stuff can happen and you see more upsets and that's exciting.
00:24:02
Speaker
But I like seeing the team that's better, you know, get to prove it over a longer period of time and ultimately get rewarded for being better.
00:24:14
Speaker
Yeah, no, I feel the same exact way. I don't like three games is ridiculous. Like, especially with the insanely expanded season that we played this year, I don't understand how you're adding. I mean, this is all hypothetical because it could be two games. There could not be a game three in the entire playoff, but
00:24:36
Speaker
I don't know. It seems silly where you have leagues cup open cup MLS regular season. Uh, what other, what other now playoffs, potentially three games. I don't know. I don't know. It's a lot of games, a lot of games. And I think there's definitely fair concerns about that. I have concerns about that. Well, just because, I mean, you do have a situation where you have limited roster, uh, depth and a hugely congested schedule. So
00:25:07
Speaker
there's going to be a there I have to imagine there's going to be a reckoning with that at some point has to be here if they're going to have this many games you got to let teams yeah and see see a little deeper roster that's what I forgot to add yeah ccc now ccc with even more teams playing as well as far as this fc dallas matchup goes I actually love this matchup for Seattle I don't know about you know I do I do like when you get to the playoffs
Seattle vs. FC Dallas Matchup
00:25:35
Speaker
There's going to be a baseline of competence, I would say, with any team that you get. Even with the MLS playoff structure being really forgiving and nine teams from each conference get in. Even the eight or nine C's, they're going to be capable of giving you a game.
00:26:00
Speaker
It's not to say that I think this FC Dallas series is going to be an easy series or Seattle's just going to run all over them and win it easily. But just in terms of this matchup compared to the matchups that they could have gotten, you know, there was a, there was an off chance on decision day that they were going to get Portland if Portland had make it, had made it, which they did not make the playoffs sadly. Yeah. Apple TV was rubbing their grubby little hands. Portland timbers were eliminated on the last day of the season with a
00:26:30
Speaker
3-1 defeat to, uh...
00:26:34
Speaker
I don't even remember who they oh Houston yeah yeah they got smashed on yeah they got bad but like if they had won that game and gotten in there was a scenario where they could add like the seven seed and then Seattle would have them first round I would have hated every second of that I do I wouldn't I don't really like a hypothetical Vancouver matchup that much I think they play really good ball and Scottish record they have Scottish messy
00:27:02
Speaker
They're Houston. I don't think it's pretty nasty. Houston's has them playing serious ball. So I'm looking at all those and I'm like, I don't really like any of those matchups. FC Dallas is kind of nasty though.
00:27:19
Speaker
They should be, here's my thing, they should be way nastier than they actually are in practice. If you look at their roster, yeah, they're pretty nasty. Jesus Ferreira, pretty nasty. Paul Areola, pretty nasty. Alan Velasco, theoretically nasty, not that nasty on the stat sheet this year. He was number one in the 22 under 22 rankings. He's a very talented player. He's very young, he's only 21.
00:27:48
Speaker
And he hasn't I would say if anything
00:27:55
Speaker
He's underachieved this season. That's fair. He had a good year last year. He had a good year last year, a little bit of a down year this year, but I think the fact that he didn't break out this year, they were kind of hedging on that breakout for him and they didn't really get it. So they're a team that frankly has pretty similar issues themselves to what Seattle had for a lot of this year, which is that
00:28:23
Speaker
they couldn't score goals consistently, and so for a team with Jesus Ferreira and Paul Ariola and these guys that are proven MLS attackers, that's kind of surprising. Yeah, but they're also nine games unbeaten right now, though nine games unbeaten right now and
00:28:45
Speaker
which they have they have most draws though they have one of the best goalkeepers in the league correct so Martin that's Martin pass he's kind of Steve backline to got he's got one of the he's one of the more like slept on goalkeepers in the league like every year if you look at the numbers of the best goalkeepers Martin bosses right there it's because he has so many shots taken at him
00:29:09
Speaker
That's partially true. But like even the even the advanced stats that you love. He's cold. He's good. He's good. So they're not. It's true. They're not an easy team to score on. But they're not a team that scores all that much themselves.
00:29:25
Speaker
And I think another thing that works in Seattle's favor here a little bit is that, I mean, if you just look at the playoff history between these teams, especially the recent history, Seattle's been able to handle FC Dallas in the playoffs. There's the famous JMO hat trick extra time game in 2019. They played again in, it was either 20 or 21 or something, and they also won that.
00:29:50
Speaker
So In terms of the matchups that You could have hoped for Seattle to get I'll take this one. I'll take it all day. You know, I don't know if they're gonna win it They might not win it, but it's definitely a winnable Matchup like I don't go into this thinking Oh, it's gonna take some some they're gonna have to play the best soccer of their lives to beat FC Dallas Like yeah, I don't see it like that You know
00:30:18
Speaker
It would be ideal if they played the best soccer of their lives. But they should be able to win this series. As far as the keys to them making a run just in general, you know, for this team, it's just all about where the goals are going to come from. That hasn't always been a question that's been easy to answer this year. And I mean, my biggest question is,
00:30:44
Speaker
if they have enough in attack to really go on a deep playoff run and make it to MLS Cup. As good as they've looked over this last unbeaten stretch, you know they still drew five of those games and it still felt like pulling teeth sometimes as far as scoring goals.
00:31:04
Speaker
I think Raul Ruiz has got to play a role in this, man. I think he does. I know he's not in the first choice lineup necessarily right now. And I know he hasn't been fit and informed for pretty much this whole year. But this is a big game player. This is still your $10 million DP. This is a guy that he has the highest goals per 90.
00:31:33
Speaker
in the playoffs of any player in MLS history. So if you're really going to make a deep run, try and make a run of the cup, like I don't know if he needs to be starting, but I think you got to get a few goals from him. I think you do whatever, whatever roller capacity that comes in, if it's starting, if it says it's super sub,
00:31:57
Speaker
I think, I don't know. I don't know if you see differently, but I see that as like the biggest X factor. If they can get him healthy and inform and scoring goals, I love their chances of making a run in the West. Yeah. If it's, if it's this same 11 that they've been running out trying to carry the full load, I don't know. I don't know if that's enough. I don't, it might be. I'm not saying it's impossible,
00:32:24
Speaker
I can't sit here and confidently say that given what we've seen this season and you know this team scored 41 goals so I think for once kind of how I see it I have a less doom or take than you okay it I think that we are finally seeing a matchup that will not match up but but lineup that will allow the sounders to
00:32:50
Speaker
Start come out strong with pace and then allow them to sub on those veteran leaders, you know 30 minutes 40 minutes 60 minutes into the game and try and find some you know
00:33:04
Speaker
support or like goals against either tired defenders tired legs where it's honestly seems like it's been the opposite the opposite most of the season where you know you're running Niko into the ground from the first second that he gets onto the field to the 90th minute when he plays
00:33:23
Speaker
I don't know. I just feel like you're starting all the young players They're gonna run everyone ragged and get the veterans in there try and push the game to end and I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong Maybe I'm making shit up, but that's that's honestly what I'm seeing. It is pretty sick to have Lidero and Ruby Diaz coming off the bench. I was thinking about that during the st. Louis game when
00:33:49
Speaker
When Seattle was making a sub and the camera showed the Darrow getting ready to check in and I was like Damn, I mean that's that's that's an ace in the pocket. Yeah, you know even even at his more advanced age and With him, you know Not being the player that he once was like the guy the guy the guy still gives it his all every time and for a 30-minute increment like coming off the bench and
00:34:17
Speaker
That's next factor. So that's what I'm saying. We'll see how much they get out of those two guys in the playoffs. And you know, I kind of, I kind of bake in like a baseline of what they're going to get from Ledero. Yeah. But to me, Raoul is the X factor. And if he can start scoring, scoring goals coming off the bench,
00:34:42
Speaker
I mean, that's huge. I think that could be the difference between a deep run, making it to cup and going home early. And I think you have enough talent up front too that if he isn't producing that...
00:34:56
Speaker
You know what you've still got Jordan you've still got chew you've you know you have Rusnak has been not Rusnak's been nasty and I feel like he has gotten more of a green light to go ahead and and just tear up and go on those attack run. He's just so much better in that attacking role. I kind of you know I defended it adamantly at the time but looking back on it.
00:35:20
Speaker
I'm kind of like I can't believe we were doing a whole round of discourse on like how he's actually better as a holding mid like no I yeah he's disgusting he's nasty there's a reason he's a DP he's he is an attacking player I you know I understand why they played him in that position but
00:35:42
Speaker
Man, I'll always always defend it from the standpoint of the of the one CCL doing it But it's it's just a lot better like this it makes it makes the the whole attack so much easier to watch Think I'm about ready to jump into the little little bracket Little little bracket. Yes, if you're ready pull that up and we go through the rest of the series and can tell you how How I see it shaping out
00:36:12
Speaker
Yeah, and we're getting what we should. We should start on the east, I think, because the sporting game is currently in penalties and I'm keeping I'm keeping tabs on it. So cool, cool. I did watch the Red Bulls Charlotte game earlier and I mean the Red Bulls beat him five two and I don't know.
00:36:32
Speaker
How much that says about the Red Bulls compared to how much it says about Charlotte I tend to think it probably says a little more about Charlotte, but It's funny because the Red Bulls were pretty much They were out of the playoffs pretty much all season and barely got in on the last day.
Other MLS Playoff Predictions
00:36:48
Speaker
Yeah, and now Now they're looking the beast is scary and if they have FC Cincinnati
00:36:56
Speaker
in round one. Maybe we should just start there. I think so. I mean I'm taking Cincinnati all day. It's the best team in the league this year from their spoon. They're probably the cup favorites, but I mean what I'm saying is like low key.
00:37:12
Speaker
the Red Bulls could give them a game and I think I think they're going to give them a game. Yeah, the Red Bulls they they they play all out not always to great effect, but you know they're going to be energy energy drink soccer and you to death. So just that just a slight update to Amelia with the save on the first San Jose shot. So
00:37:35
Speaker
that's too bad I was kind of yeah kind of hoping for for the professional wrestling enthusiasts to get knocked out but you know it's the first of a two game series so correct they still good yeah but anyway yeah I got FC Cincinnati in that one that's pretty easy yeah I I agree with you I don't think anyone's touching FC Cincinnati till at least the second round there I agree I think Red Bulls will give them a game they've been
00:38:05
Speaker
They're they play unhinged soccer. I just I feel like they'll be they'll have a game and scores They're not necessarily a team you want to see in the playoffs. No. No, they're they're yeah New Jersey stand up. Let's hear you you know Philly New England. That's a good one the the four or five matchup That's a that's a matchup I would expect that was both the teams would be higher and
00:38:33
Speaker
Yeah, I was actually writing about it today on the website. Philly had 67 points last year. They were the second best team in the league to LAFC all year. They barely lost to LAFC and MLS Cup. They just weren't that dominant this year, and they're also not going into the playoffs in very good form.
00:38:55
Speaker
I think there's a little upset opportunity for the refs in this one, but I'm still going to take Philly because they've gotten over the playoff demons. They've shown that they can at least make a deep playoff run, which they showed last year.
00:39:15
Speaker
And also, the Revs have just kind of been roiled and scandal and turmoil since Bruce Arena left. They got an interim coach right now. The vibes have just been off. And they were up near the top of the East when Bruce left. And ever since all that stuff happened,
00:39:35
Speaker
They've been good. They have a pretty loaded roster. Carlos Gill is still one of the best players in the league. Gustavo Bowe only played like 20 games this year, but when he does play, he's still a really good striker. So they have talent to be better than what their record ended up being. But just on vibes,
00:40:01
Speaker
I think Philly probably gets by him. They had the exact same record this year for what it's worth. Yeah, I think Philly looks great. I think New England looks better personally. I think I don't know. No one really knows what happened with the whole Bruce Arena situation, but it seems like the players are pretty, um,
00:40:22
Speaker
Pretty, pretty determined to do something with a season that I think some of them feel like they were kind of screwed over in a sense. I don't really know all that. I mean, I think you're right. Um, and I would never put, I would never put it past a team that's stacked like that and, uh, has a chip on their shoulder. So I'm definitely going to England.
00:40:43
Speaker
That's a good that's a good case you just made yeah, I could see it. I may I think uh You know I'm still thinking of Philly kind of how I thought of them last year. Yeah, they have all the same players That's the same squad. I don't really understand like Why they had a down year this year? Yeah, I mean I think you know maybe a little bit of a hangover from just incredible disappointment last season in the final, but I
00:41:08
Speaker
I mean did they did they even make a run in any of the other tournaments? I mean they didn't think it no they bombed out of they bomb they bomb out of everything yeah so I mean I don't know what Philly Philly does at this is correct yeah so I don't know I'm not I'm not a Philly believer this season unfortunately so next up Columbus Atlanta
00:41:32
Speaker
That's that's gonna be a fun series because that's two of the best attacking teams in the league and also I Mean so with Atlanta you've got one of the best attacking teams in the league But also one of the most vulnerable defensive teams in the league with Columbus you got one of the best attacking teams in the league and also a team that has a propensity for
00:41:57
Speaker
Conceding really bad and dumb goals correct, so that's kind of good. That's gonna be the Chaos Bowl I I forgot that that was the matchup. I actually can't wait to watch yeah That's that's probably my series to watch for at least in the East for for the best of three series because I Mean you got a lot of firepower and attack on both sides
00:42:20
Speaker
Armada for Atlanta guy. He got a red card on decision day. Yeah, that was spended for game one So that that takes a little bit of the juice out of it and honestly that makes me tilt Columbus for the series the fact that they don't have Armada for the first game but Jacques Amakis for Atlanta, he's one of the better number nines in the league his 17 goals I
00:42:46
Speaker
But, I mean, no Omada is tough, but then on the Columbus side, you know, you've got Diego Rossi, who they replaced El Orion with, and Cuccio Hernandez.
00:42:56
Speaker
Loki probably should have been higher in MVP discussions. Yeah, then then he ended up being That guy had a crazy year loot shows gonna win MVP and he racked 16 goals 14 assists I think Kucho had 16 and 11 and he's ostensibly a number nine and he was he was racking up assists at a crazy pace Yeah earlier this year it calmed down a little bit But there was a point earlier this year where he had like nine or ten assists in not that many games and
00:43:26
Speaker
He's but he's become Wilfred Nancy. That's if you if you guys want a
00:43:32
Speaker
a more under heralded MLS coach that might be the best coach. He might be the best coach in the league. He might be the best coach in the league. I could, I could honestly, I could, I could coast on that. He, um, he had CF Montreal like balling last year, dude. And that's why Columbus hired him off and the work he's done with the crew. It's pretty cool to see because, uh, you know, he didn't get a lot of shine in Montreal and he didn't have a super great roster to work with.
00:44:01
Speaker
In Columbus hired him off in Columbus has this pretty loaded roster and so you're like what happens when you give like a tactical savant like a roster of like Lamborghini quality and he kind of showed you what will happen you you have the they I mean the crew play the best attacking soccer in the league outside Yeah in terms of just like the aesthetic of it The Houston Dynamo are low-key up there. Yeah, they're there
00:44:29
Speaker
Those like highlight clips you see of the Houston dynamo pinging the ball around like Barcelona and scoring these great Tim goals That's like Columbus like every goal. No. Yeah, so Anyway, so a long way of saying I got the crew crew. I like that pic. I think I am I mean you you pretty much nailed that down there, but I think I'm gonna go with Atlanta just because I don't know fuck it Gonzo he's
00:44:55
Speaker
Pick one for gun. He's honestly man. He's dude. He's he's he knows what he's doing in the playoffs But more than that he's coaching for his a life He's coaching for his life if Elmata wasn't suspended for the first game I would say the series is pretty much a clean toss-up that one's going to three games for sure But yeah, no if there's one in the East that that could definitely it's that one. Yeah, I
00:45:18
Speaker
I do think not having a modder really hurts. I I don't I didn't I didn't see the highlight of what the red card was I know Atlanta fans were pissed about it, but I Wish that we get reset for the playoffs. You know what I mean? Yeah, just let him we all would much rather watch that series plan, but yeah better TV That's what's up. So last but definitely not least Orlando Nashville
00:45:41
Speaker
I got Orlando all day there Orlando was Loki the second best team in the league this year behind FC Cincinnati they had the second most points over 60 points Oscar Perea really good MLS coach and they just have so much more firepower and attack than Nashville I don't think Nashville can hang with them over a full series
00:46:07
Speaker
I think Nashville gets boat race. I kind of think they get boat race in Nashville. It's like they have the same problems every year and they don't.
00:46:18
Speaker
Like they just don't do a good enough job at solving them like the whole storyline with nashville is It's haney mukhtar or bust They have this great dp who is perennial mvp candidate puts up crazy numbers every year scores a bunch of crazy goals and then Out outside like the stats on how much of their goal production comes from haney mukhtar and only haney mukhtar and
00:46:43
Speaker
It's like staggering. Yeah. And they signed Sam Sturridge, who's Sam Surridge, who was supposed to be the answer at the number nine. And I think he scored a few goals for them, but he hasn't been anything crazy special. And he's not really, he hasn't really had the effect of taking a pronounced enough load off of Haney Mukhtar.
00:47:07
Speaker
Yeah, so Nashville they can They can still defend at an elite level Walker Zimmerman's probably still the best CB in the league but When it comes to the playoffs like you got to be able to score with these teams and Orlando's a terrible matchup for them That's a terrible yeah for them because that's a team with a ton of firepower that can get at them on defense and I don't know if they're gonna be able to hang with that and
00:47:32
Speaker
Even if they are able to keep Orlando off the score sheet, like Nashville is simple, man. If you take, if you neutralize Haney Mukhtar, they're done. Yeah, I agree. I think Orlando is going to show them what it means to be a well-rounded team and just boat race. Orlando's not a bad cup pick, honestly, and I could easily see them beat in FC, FC Cincinnati and like a theoretical conference final.
00:48:01
Speaker
Yeah, no, I think that would be a fun game to watch like thinking about it now like I want to see the league right now like I'd love to I'd love to see them play best two teams in the league and two two of the most fun teams to watch Yeah, yeah, I mean you know Sucks sucks messies not in there. You know God just going through those East teams. It's like God these teams were so much better like it's ridiculous
00:48:26
Speaker
You got teams with like serious juice that we just went through right there and then we're about to do the West and it is not going to be like that. But anyway, let's do it. Speak of the devil first round St. Louis City versus SKC.
00:48:43
Speaker
Skc won on penalties. Okay. Well, so skc could still lose to the quakes, but well, let's just pick it like that Because skc is out in front and they're probably gonna win that yeah quakes aren't very good. So See that you know, that's a pretty sick it'd be a pretty sick matchup if that's what does happen I think st. Louis has taken either of those teams
00:49:11
Speaker
You know, I was just having the opposite thought. Really? And you know, I think, I think St. Louis, okay. A best of all right. Hear me out. Hear me. I'm hearing you out a best of three series. Yeah.
00:49:26
Speaker
It's hard to make it through one of those if you're fraudulent. Correct. There's been a lot of evidence to suggest that there's been shatter. There's, there's a lot. Look, I'm not even saying that to have a go at St. Louis city. So, you know, if any St. Louis better capitalized, that's going to be listening to this, um, St. Louis city. I'm not, uh, I'm not trying to, not trying to bag on the squad, but like I was looking at these numbers the other day.
00:49:52
Speaker
uh for a post we were doing on the website uh the biggest xg under performer and uh over performers of 2023 which you know you might not put uh stock in that but state louis city over performed their xg by 20 goals which is an insane number like you pretty much never see that
00:50:15
Speaker
And that's just a strong indicator to me that they're like not they're not just getting like a little bit lucky, but they're like their record is like way above what their actual weight class.
00:50:34
Speaker
Yes, and I think the eye test has bared that out to me when I watch them play Yeah, that's that's for instance Seattle just went on the road and handled them pretty easily so I think like when they get to the playoffs that that
00:50:51
Speaker
I'm not saying it's guaranteed to happen. I think there's a chance that that could get exposed by this, by the, by the same token, the, the wrestling enthusiasts have been in great form pretty much for the last few months and they went, they started the season 10
00:51:11
Speaker
Winless yeah seven losses three draws no wins pretty much since then they've had As good they might have it might be the best points per game in the West Since that really terrible start so yeah, it gives me no joy to report it Considering that they enjoy professional wrestling more than they enjoy soccer, but they've been playing good soccer so I think
00:51:37
Speaker
St. Louis drawing a team that's in some of the best form in the West really over a sample multiple months and they're gonna play them hard when there's also and they're gonna play them hard there's a lot of data to suggest to that st. Louis is Not as good as their record on fraud. I think I think that's it. They're on fraud watch I think that is I'm picking SKC there and I actually like feel pretty good about the pic. I like that. I like the pic
00:52:03
Speaker
I like I like what you're saying here, and I you know you've convinced me and I but I think something that you're leaving out to With these games not going into extra time you've got to factor in penalties and when you're factoring in penalties you got to think of WWE champion and sporting Kansas City legend Tim Melia who is Disgusting against penalty kicks he is but um Roman Berkey is also one of the best that's true in the league I don't know how
00:52:29
Speaker
Amelia is specifically great against penalties. I don't know if that's the case with Berkey, but Berkey was probably the best goalkeeper in the league this year. Yeah, no, I agree, but I think just knowing specifically penalties and what sporting has been able to do against penalties. That's a good point. I can see it. I can see it. You know what? I will take the sporting upset with you against St. Louis, and if it is San Jose, what are your thoughts there?
00:52:54
Speaker
I mean, I would probably take St. Louis at that point just because for as fraudulent as they may or may not be. The quakes are the quakes have been in bad form for as long as sporting Casey has been in good form.
00:53:13
Speaker
Correct. So, uh, I think even a fraudulent St. Louis side can get by the quakes. Yeah. SKC it's dicier. That's not, they shouldn't, they shouldn't like that matchup. Yeah. No, I agree with that. I think they, they kick San Jose to the curb. I think anyone could do that. Honestly, next up an interesting one. And to me, a really interesting one, at least Houston RSL.
00:53:41
Speaker
Um, yeah, I, I definitely like Houston in this series and I, I like them to have a good chance at making a run in the playoffs. Um, I mean, Ben Wilson is kind of the guru man. They, uh, they want open cup. And I think the thing you have to realize about the dynamo is that, you know, not only were
00:54:08
Speaker
They taken points and they went in the open cup, but they looked good doing it. They play aesthetically pleasing soccer. They play great team soccer. They bought in to the Ben Olsen experience, which I wasn't sure if that was gonna happen.
00:54:24
Speaker
So I got to say the dynamo have impressed me quite a lot this year. Like when you think about what the dynamo have been historically over the last few years and when Ben Olson got hired, I think a lot of people were like, what are you doing? This is a DC United retread who is like known for playing like really boring and unattractive soccer. It's kind of it's weird to see him coaching a team that plays this beautifully.
00:54:53
Speaker
Yeah, no, I agree. Kind of surprising. But you know what I think that is, man, is DC United, they were not really giving him all that much to work with. He got a lucho acosta here, and then players like that here and there. But in terms of a full team of talented players, it's kind of what I was talking about with Wilfred Nancy, where
00:55:18
Speaker
He went from an organization that Where didn't have a super great roster and then he goes to one that does have a great roster like you see what happens? Benio Goes to Houston. They have new ownership. They're a lot more willing to spend money. They bring in Hector Herrera Like I don't know if I would have called it a great roster though that's the thing like Nancy got the crew who are loaded and when I saw
00:55:46
Speaker
Benny O going to Houston. I definitely didn't look at their roster and think, Oh, okay. He's like, he's going to be cooking now, but you know, you got to give credit to the guy. Like he's really, he's coaches. Benny O's coached his ass off this year. I'm talking to myself into a Benny O coach of the year take right now. He's probably not going to get it, but he's done a good job. And, um, RSL, I mean,
00:56:12
Speaker
They really haven't been in good form for a long time. It's Pablo ball for them. They're going to bring some more going to try and they're going to try and bunker in time waste and do all the stuff that we saw them do in Seattle in the David Ochoa game. Pablo has got no shame. RSO actually I remember I was singing their praises earlier this year. Correct. That didn't really pan out more. Yeah, they
00:56:43
Speaker
So their best midfielder Pablo Ruiz, also named Pablo, he tore his ACL, I think like halfway through the season. And he, I mean, he was, he was like the engine of their whole team and they have not really figured out how to play without him.
00:57:00
Speaker
So because of that, their form dipped. Chicho Arango scored some goals, but hasn't hasn't really been able to carry enough of the load to get them out of the funk that they've been in. So I mean, yeah, I got I got Houston all day there.
00:57:15
Speaker
Yeah, I also agree. I think, honestly, I think Houston's a cup contender. I think, especially with their path to the final. Um, I mean, let's say they hypothetically have to play St. Louis or sporting or God forbid, San Jose. I don't know. I think I could, I could see them easily bamming on any of those teams. And that brings them to a conference final against, you know,
00:57:42
Speaker
your worst case, maybe LAFC Seattle best case of Vancouver. Like I don't know that's they play pretty soccer. So yeah, I'm also taking Houston with that one. Speaking of LAFC and Vancouver.
00:57:58
Speaker
LFC Vancouver three and six seed man. My first instinct is is to just easily pick LFC and I think I probably am still gonna go with LFC but I think Vancouver is gonna mess with them a little bit and I think it's gonna be a tough series LFC
00:58:22
Speaker
They got hot towards the end of the year. They started kind of looking like normal LAFC again. They had a couple of games where they really blew up and they had like a five goal game. Denny Sponga won the Golden Boot. He's probably the scariest offensive player in the league. When he's running at you, there's no more intimidating sight in MLS than that.
00:58:50
Speaker
But the white the whitecaps all year have been it's kind of like the they're like the opposite of St. Louis like their their record hasn't always been super great even though they finished okay. But their their performances both by the eye test and by the underlying numbers were were very good. They played Vancouver by a lot of metrics played some of the best attacking soccer in the league this year and has Katie a cup champions. Yep.
00:59:18
Speaker
Cascadia Cup champions. The duo of Scottish Messi, Ryan Gauld and Brian White is low-key ridiculously potent. Ryan Gauld was a fringe MVP candidate, 11 goals, 12 assists, I think.
00:59:35
Speaker
Brian White had 15 goals, five assists. Okay. Like those are like upper tier MLS number nine numbers from Brian White. So Vancouver is definitely a team that can get at LSC and can score some goals on them.
00:59:52
Speaker
They played on decision day, and they drew one one at BMO Stadium So I think that's a pretty big confidence boost for her Vancouver like they played in Champions League and LFC blew the doors off them Yeah, like six oh one aggregate, so if that was their last taste in their mouths like you might think that LFC would have a pretty substantial mental edge, but
01:00:17
Speaker
Vancouver just just drew them in their house where they're gonna have to play again so You know what oh I don't believe in this take really this is probably gonna be a bad take talk, but I'm gonna do it I'm gonna have some fun and and pick the caps here. I like the caps I think if they can get by LA FC here They have a great chance to make a run and I do think LA FC
01:00:42
Speaker
As much better as they've looked lately, they've shown that they're a vulnerable squad. Oh yeah, they're fraudulent for sure. They've shown that they're a vulnerable squad. I really don't like them to come out of the West. I would probably pick Houston over them. Oh, easy.
01:01:01
Speaker
Yeah, no, I think a series with Seattle would be or a playoff game with Seattle would be a toss up, but Seattle is one of those before. Yeah, so I just I don't think it's an LFC year and I think I think the caps can do it. I think they can do it and just because I think they can do it doesn't mean that I should pick them, but I'm going to I'm feeling it. I like to pick. I'm going to go LFC. I don't really think
01:01:30
Speaker
I don't know. I just, I mean, it's the, it's the right pick and I am no fan of that team and I don't think that they're really going to perform well outside of the Western conference. So if they made it to the final, which I honestly doubt they will, uh, they're getting their shit rocked by basically any team on the East.
01:01:55
Speaker
And, um, unless it's Philly in the, that could be true of like all these teams in the West. Yeah. No, that's because any team in the West is going to have to travel. Yeah. You know, assuming that like not something crazy doesn't happen in the East.
01:02:09
Speaker
Yeah, unless it's Nashville or Atlanta. Yeah, that's not going to happen. Yeah, you know, I mean, I'm all here for a Seattle Atlanta final. You know, that's that's the sicko in me once that's so bad. But that's not happening. I don't know if I could take that. Why not?
01:02:28
Speaker
That'd be a home. I mean it would just be a matchup of two boisterous fan bases correct correct. Well, we did ruin soccer, so I can't really blame them and the team that did ruin soccer Seattle Sounders versus number seven FC Dallas. What do you got going for this one Ari?
Focus on Seattle's Home Advantage
01:02:47
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think we already talked about it a little bit, but I like Seattle in this series. I think having the home field advantage is actually huge here because
01:03:02
Speaker
Even with the gap in quality that I see between these two teams, Seattle always seems to struggle on those Frisco road trips. I think they got a tie there the last time they played there. So it's not like they can't get a result there, but I think having the first game at Lumen is huge. Seattle tends to turn up in the playoffs regardless of who they're playing, but it seems like
01:03:32
Speaker
They kind of have FC Dallas' number in the playoffs the last couple times that they've played. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. Do you have anything to add there? Yeah, I mean, the two times this season they've played, they've both been draws.
01:03:50
Speaker
I don't know, I'm gonna go crazy. I'm gonna pick FC Dallas here. Alright, I like it. Just because you picked the Sounders and also because I'm still not sold that this Sounders team is actually not just a mess. I don't know, I think that
01:04:10
Speaker
How do you not rely on Nico and Raul in the playoffs? That's, you know, I don't know how Brian's going to approach that. So I think until I see this first series, I'm not going to be betting or hedging anything on the Sounders to perform well in the playoffs.
01:04:28
Speaker
That's fair. I mean, I would probably feel the same way. Like if this, if we were talking about this, like earlier in the season, but I do think like I put stock in the improved play that they've showed of late. Like I think that that it's significant, at least for how I think of it, you know, if we were talking mid season, when this team couldn't score a goal to save its life, I'd be like, yeah, I'd pick an FC Dallas all day. See, I was not going to score a goal. Uh, seeing, seeing them kind of,
01:04:59
Speaker
start to look better over over the nine unbeaten and then also you know if you if you'd seen the st. Louis game you might you might think of it differently because that was really like a game where it's like all right this is how a Seattle team is supposed to play right nice to see them play like this so if they if they if they can play like that
01:05:22
Speaker
This Dallas series. They'll win the series. Yeah, I have no doubt in in in that nine unbeaten They've had like five or six multi-goal games. So that is Definitely something to it's been better on offense, you know, it's they're not a they're not 29 out 2019 LFC out here but signs of life signs of life well, we'll just have to see what happens on Monday and
01:05:46
Speaker
and let's hope I'm wrong because I know I appreciate that you gave the contrarian the contrarian pig you know someone's got a someone's got to write you don't want to have like ever us picking the same teams exactly boring audio yeah
01:06:00
Speaker
All right. Well, I think we're good to To wrap it up right there in that
Podcast Plans and Listener Encouragement
01:06:07
Speaker
case of snow. Yeah, I do want to say yeah before we go Oh, yeah, I made a statement on this here podcast I don't know if we ever put that one out or if it's out there somewhere, but I made a bet that a bear would not score for the rest of the regular season and That bet did cash, but I do want to say I
01:06:30
Speaker
activate playoff a bear activate playoff a bear that would be incredible if he just goes like full Nelson Valdez keys like a D playoff run that would be that would be something else I bet it's gonna happen I bet it's gonna happen I'm here for it I'm here for it so let's see it activate him
01:06:53
Speaker
All right, we'll call that a wrap on this episode of Lobbin Scorchers. Thank you all for tuning back in. Sorry about the delay. Like I said, we're going to try and put a couple of these out at least during the playoffs. We'll be watching the games, keeping track of all the action. Go ahead and like, comment, subscribe, rate five stars, iTunes review, all that good stuff. Correct. And we appreciate you all for tuning in. Until next time, we out.
01:07:23
Speaker
you