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The over/under and mailbag episode
441 Plays5 days ago
Aaron and Jeremiah return for their 2026 home opener with a mailbag and over/under episode. They talk about how the preseason went and the most unexpected transfer of Reed Baker-Whiting to Nashville. The guys also do their over/under predictions for the year and round it out with answering your question from the mailbag
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Transcript
Introduction to Will Bruin's Role
00:00:01
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. Now I get to do voice reads for the Sounder at Heart Podcast Network. Here we go.
00:00:11
Speaker
Come on. Hey, O'Shaan. Let's go. The Seattle Sounders have done it. MLS Cup winners. Here comes Ruiz Diaz through the middle to crown it for Seattle.
00:00:25
Speaker
The Sounders rule the region.
Sponsorship and Support from Full Pull Wines
00:00:58
Speaker
what was the thought process in terms of who you decided to use and who you didn't? Ever since I wrote a commentary that we didn't take the outcome seriously.
00:01:18
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounder supporters.
00:01:32
Speaker
They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
Preseason Overview with Hosts
00:01:42
Speaker
Welcome to another episode of Nos Adietes, part of the Sounder at Heart podcast network, sponsored by Full Pull Wines and our subscribers. We're recording on Monday, February 16th, 2026. I'm your host, Jeremiah Shan.
00:01:55
Speaker
Today, I am joined again by Aaron Campo and our engineer, Lickett. First off, Aaron, welcome back. It's been way too long since we recorded together. It's it's good to see your face. Good to hear your voice.
00:02:07
Speaker
Yeah, thank you. Ditto here. It's been I wouldn't say too long, but it's been the right amount of many time. But I'm i'm excited. that i'm I'm definitely excited to get back to it. I'm excited for the season. This is when it always feels real, right, is when we do the first. ah versus Exactly.
00:02:21
Speaker
you know, preseason, preseason episode. I mean, you've been doing them all. all No, I know. But this is where it starts to hit the where it's like, well, we got we really got stuff to talk about now. Yeah, sure. It's nice. ah Yeah, I think we'd plan to ah to record if anything like super crazy happened.
00:02:38
Speaker
And then the one super crazy thing that happened, you were in Spain. So I was. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, exactly. yeah ah Yeah, so just to give you everyone a bit of a rundown what we're going to today, ah we're going to talk a little bit about the preseason game that just happened.
Reed Baker-Whiting's Future Speculations
00:02:54
Speaker
We're going to talk about this Reed Baker Whiting move that is actually not yet officially official as of the recording of this, but all...
00:03:01
Speaker
There's no doubt that that's that's happening. And then we're going to go through some over-unders, which I would really, you know, we did it last year. i think we're going to try to make it ah an annual fixture. And then we're going to close out the show ah in our final segment. We're going to do our first mailbag of 2026.
00:03:18
Speaker
But Aaron, I know you didn't actually watch the Louisville game because it was not streamed and you
Preseason Performance Insights
00:03:24
Speaker
were not there. But based on what you have observed, what's your your impression of preseason and you know what you've seen so far?
00:03:34
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think that they they've looked like they're in preseason, which you would expect, right? But there are certainly some positive things to take away from the preseason. I think Osaze Rosario is the the top of the list, right? like um He has made a case for himself being the starter on on day one. I don't know if that's going to persist once everybody is back to full health, but he he certainly has earned a look, right? And that's that's pretty exciting. Yeah.
00:04:02
Speaker
And I, you know, I had nothing that I saw in preseason and I'll admit that i was not sitting there with a pen and paper watching every game sure with wrapped attention, but I didn't see anything in the preseason that concerned me. I mean, I think that this is a veteran team, um, that we kind of know what we're going to get from them. And it'll be interesting to see tactically how things shake out, um, both at the start of the season when, uh, you know, that they seem as not as deep as they hopefully will be in a month or so. and then also once everybody's back and healthy and, and, uh,
00:04:37
Speaker
you know, we kind of see how the experiments there, there, they will be doing early in the season. Shake out. Um, I'm not super excited about the prospect of Jordan Morris playing wide again, but I think if it's for, you know, stop gap, I can, I can live with
Player Positions and Tactical Speculations
00:04:51
Speaker
it. Um,
00:04:53
Speaker
ah I could have lived with it more if Duhu wasn't the the likely left back. But I mean, you know, who who knows? Like, maybe he's not going to be the left back. Maybe he's going to be a left center back and a a three center back set up.
00:05:04
Speaker
ah All allll still things I think that that'll, you know, we'll have to wait and see on. But, you know, nothing that's going to happen in preseason has ever happened. shy of an injury or something like that, right. Is going to make me that concerned, but overall I thought this, you know, the team look has looked good. um Some, some bright spots for sure. Some exciting things to watch and ah yeah, i'm I'm ready for the season. It's, it feels like they are um last season. I felt a little bit of dread going into the year just because of the injuries they had because things came so late and things got kind of shaken up late and,
00:05:42
Speaker
um This year, I feel pretty good about where they're at right now, even though they are still missing some key players. Yeah, their depth at center back is definitely some concern. They do not effectively have any natural center backs beyond their starters. Now, the good news is that Yamar and Jackson Reagan are healthy and would presumably be playing better.
00:06:05
Speaker
for the foreseeable, like there's there's not fixture congestion early in the season. So that's good. But yeah, there, there look like there's going to be three changes, three notable changes to the starting lineup. going into the the first game, or at least the early stage of the game.
00:06:19
Speaker
ah Andrew Thomas looks like he is the the starting goalkeeper. That's ah another one that has not been officially announced, but all signs indicate that he's going to be the
Lineup Changes and Goalkeeper Decisions
00:06:30
Speaker
goalkeeper.
00:06:30
Speaker
The biggest sign, of course, being that he's on the cover of the Sounder at Heart magazine, which hope everyone is going to go by, ah but we'll get into that later. The other change is Hassani Dotson replacing Obed Vargas. He looks very comfortable.
00:06:47
Speaker
Assuming Christian Roldan is healthy, which I think he will be healthy for the season opener. ah But if he's not, maybe we'll see Snyder Brunel or someone like that. But I'm not going to count him as one of the changes. And then the other change, as you alluded to, is it looks like the Sounders are going to try Jordan Morris out on the left.
00:07:04
Speaker
And originally, i assume the thought was they'll play Danny Masofsky up at forward. And then it turned into Osaza de Rosario and Osaza de Rosario, given the opportunity has, you know, he's, it's been two games. So I don't want to two preseason games. I don't want to go crazy about this, but he scored two goals in each of those two games. And he just looks the part, you know, he looks confident. He looks like he is, he's got a big body. He's looked very good around goal. He's, he hits a very heavy shot.
00:07:38
Speaker
You know, it, we'll go over this a little bit in the over-unders because he is ah someone that we get into, but I'm a little shocked to say that Osazi De Rosario seems to have at least temporarily won the starting number nine job, which would have not been on my list of possibilities the start of preseason.
00:07:58
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think that he had had an opportunity to get some playing time just because of the injuries that the team has right now with Musovski being out, with Dale Vega being out, et cetera. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:08:09
Speaker
And he took advantage of them. And, ah you you know, is it the choice I would be making? I don't know that it would, but I don't think Osaze de Rosario's performance in preseason would be the reason I wouldn't be making that. right And I do think that there is something to be said for the fact that if you tell people you need to show me that you need to I need to be playing you that you deserve this playing time and they go out and do it.
00:08:37
Speaker
Right. you Kind of have to reward that in a situation like this, right. Where everything is kind of wide open and ah you know, it's it. And I'm, I'm glad to some degree that, that he's getting rewarded for that performance. And I, do have high hopes for him.
00:08:52
Speaker
I just, that Jordan Morris knew who left side makes me, ah Feel not nervous not feel not feel ah nervous is, I guess, one way to put it. It doesn't make me feel very good. Yeah. And they I will say that they look better together this preseason than they have looked most of the time that we've seen this and knew who does seem like he has made some improvements to his approach.
00:09:20
Speaker
Like he seems to be better at picking his spots. I'm not overjoyed at this development.
Reed Baker-Whiting's Transfer Implications
00:09:25
Speaker
And somewhat related though somewhat related to all of this, I think, is the decision to trade or transfer, depending on how you want to call it, cash for player trade, I guess technically is what they call it. Yeah.
00:09:37
Speaker
Reed Baker whiting to Nashville. ah The Sounders are getting... Apparently $800,000 are going to keep a 20% sell on that feels like a fair market value to me, but it does not feel like a number that was big enough to say, oh yeah, we got to make this move unless there was something else going on in the sense that they really like the idea of maybe playing Areola or Rothrock at left back and that they weren't really sure what to do with Reed, which is a possibility.
00:10:09
Speaker
And, you know, they've also been toying with this idea of you know, traditionally the Sounders have built out in a 3-2. So that would be with three center backs and two defensive midfielders.
00:10:20
Speaker
And they seem to have been toying with this idea in preseason of building out more in a 2-3. So you would end up, with the way they would look is you would probably have the two center backs and then you'd have...
00:10:33
Speaker
Alex Roldan really playing as more of a defensive midfielder. And then your left back would be almost would be more of a ah winger and they would be farther up the pitch. And so that kind of flip flops the way that they had been playing the build out where.
00:10:50
Speaker
i Alex Roldan was oftentimes the highest player on the pitch in the build out. And they had the the left back kind of dropping into more of a center back role. So it's a little bit of a tweak on that formation.
00:11:04
Speaker
But more broadly, just what do you what do you make of this Reed Baker Whiting situation? I was certainly surprised
Homegrown Player Transfer Strategies
00:11:09
Speaker
by it. That was not something that i I thought that they were trying to do. They had just signed him to a U-22 contract a few months ago.
00:11:18
Speaker
Yeah, it's ah it's a strange one. um I think in a vacuum, like you you look at the transfer fee or cash trade amount, whatever they want to call it. You look at the sell-on.
00:11:29
Speaker
um You look at the fact that he really is it most likely blocked from getting significant amount of playing time this season, barring injury. And it's hard to say, ah this is a bad deal, right? I think that 800K with that sell-on is about right, because if he hits his if he hits his upside you know with with Nashville and and gets sold for a lot of money, you're still doing pretty well there.
00:11:50
Speaker
um So I don't have a problem with the deal in a vacuum, ah especially given that Brian Schmetzer just very clearly feels differently about Nuhu than I do and wants him to be a certain left back. And that's so that shouldn't really even factor into how I feel about it, I don't think.
00:12:05
Speaker
Yeah. The, the issue that I have though, is in the larger context of the team and the moves they made in the off season, they've sold Danny Leyva, which yeah another very similar move, right? I think they got fair value for him. He, I think wanted to go, he's, he's done well um in, in Mexico so far.
00:12:24
Speaker
And I'm super happy for him. They moved Obed Vargas who another situation where, I'm thrilled that they got something for him that he ended up going where he wanted to go worked out really well for everyone.
00:12:37
Speaker
ah but his replacement was the Sonny Dotson who i I like a lot, but I think it's fair to say is not the player of Ed Vargas is right. So you're down certainly not the upside. Yeah. Um, uh, Leiva's replacement was a peck, peck it.
00:12:50
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. gri Who, who I think has some upside. i like, I'm excited about, um, but could very easily be a ah big downgrade on Danny Leyva. and And now we're losing Reed Baker-Whiting, and we're making Paul Rothrock a backup left-back, apparently. Paul Arreola, who I think is a great left-wing back, but there are a lot of questions about him as as a left-back and a traditional back four.
00:13:16
Speaker
And so you you look at the players that have left, and Obed, obviously a key player, otherwise more fringy players, rotational players, But the only real additions they've made have just been taught to sort of a sand pad. And I like the fact that there's a path to minutes for Snyder Brunel.
00:13:37
Speaker
um And, you know, and I think like it's not that I'm upset about any of these moves even taken as a whole. They're just this one especially is kind of like, OK, so what's the plan now?
00:13:50
Speaker
kind of kind of Well, yeah, and I and i I will agree with you there. Like I've been trying to sort of understand the plan and i will say one element of it that I didn't realize initially was that the sounders apparently still had some wiggle room there and maxing out what they can convert from.
General Allocation Money and Summer Plans
00:14:10
Speaker
cash to GAM. And so I look, it sounds like about a million and a half of the transfer fee they got for Obed was payable this year and then a million next year, which extends the window that you can kind of cash out the the ah the gam on that, I believe.
00:14:30
Speaker
But also it left some room that they could still convert. So it's like you take the 650 or so, 650, 700 they got for Danny Leyva. You take the 800 they got for
00:14:42
Speaker
for Reed and the 1.5 presumably that they're getting for Obed. And that's 3 million GAM. Now that's a lot of the sounders now have a very significant GAM war chest that they can choose to do a lot of different things with. You would like to think that they have a plan for the summer, that if they can, that they need to bolster the roster, they will have the ability to do that. And I know everyone is going to sit here and go, well, we've heard this story before.
00:15:07
Speaker
I will note that this is different. This does not require the Sounders actually spend ownership money. This is money that is already sort of in the team. And so it's a lot easier to go and trade, like make a GAM trade or bring someone from within the league that you need to use some GAM on to to fit under the salary cap or whatever.
00:15:26
Speaker
So i would think that the chances of them making a move this summer are higher now than they've ever been. And so in that way, it it kind of makes sense. And I guess if they felt secure enough, again, like if, if Reed was not really in their plans and that sort of seems to be what this move indicates, no one's told me that, but that is seemed to be the implication here.
00:15:48
Speaker
it you know, it makes sense, but I I'm with you that, you know, part of what made this team so intriguing is that all this depth that they had and they seem to have gotten rid of a lot of that depth. Now they've replaced it in other ways, but,
00:16:05
Speaker
you know, maybe you can argue that there's a higher upside, but it's less proven. Like I really liked Danny Leyva as a, as an emerge, you know, as, as your second or third option at number 10 and, and kind of being able to fill in and central midfielder. I really liked Reed Baker Whiting as, as your fill in left back. I really liked, you know, I liked having Obed Vargas, you know, these were all good players.
00:16:29
Speaker
And so, you know, but on the other hand, you know, I guess they're showing that they're willing to move these homegrown players. That was sort of a knock against them for a long time is, okay, you're you're promoting that fact that you have all these homegrowns, but what are you doing with them? And I mean, that what they were doing with them was playing them and and getting minutes out of them on the first team. But this is showing another side of it, you know, and and I could see how maybe this is all part of a long-term plan to kind of build value of saying like these, we can move these players on. And if they succeed at these other teams, that's even better for us.
00:17:02
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's I think that the the the thing that concerns me and this is more of a concern just from ah an optics and vibe standpoint than a real concern, because i i I think most likely this is what they're planning to do. And I think that it probably makes sense.
00:17:20
Speaker
I don't think they're going to run through all that gamme. this summer no i don't think there's i would hope not money frankly i think they'll probably see how thing i don't think they're making another move in this window i would if they do it's probably going to be a minor depth type move maybe they go find a depth left left back or something like that right um but i think most likely they're going to see how things shake out and address whatever they feel like is the most pressing concern in the summer window i don't think it's going to be a dp level player no think you know and so it's going to be very underwhelming right
00:17:53
Speaker
And they're just going to use this to sort of ensure that they can keep the roster at this level for as long as they can, because you you have to prepare for the future in that way. Right. Like when you your roster building philosophy is what the Sounders roster building philosophy is, which for the record, I think is the right one generally, which is we want the best possible players that we can fit under the cap at every position. And we want to spread the talent throughout. We don't want weak links in the squad. And I think that makes a lot of sense, but it's not as exciting sometimes. I mean, one of thes one of the common laments you hear is like, look at all these other teams making these big splashy signings and the Sounders are just replacing guys that they've
Building a Competitive Team Philosophy
00:18:32
Speaker
sold.
00:18:32
Speaker
And it's true, but they're not in a position where they have to go out and make those big splashy signings, right? And that that is something that i think that gets overlooked sometimes, but it's not as sexy. It's not as exciting. It doesn't give people the same level of excitement. So, um and I do fear that if...
00:18:48
Speaker
they get into a situation like they did last year where they get hit with some injuries early on or they're struggling to to find their tactical identity or whatever it is and they get off to a slow start. God forbid something happens to Nuhu, he gets hurt and you're you're stuck having to play Paul Rothrock or Areola at left back and they're struggling and it's it's leading to drop points. I think the narratives are going to get really bad and I think the optics are going to get really bad. and Whether or not it's the right strategy,
00:19:14
Speaker
i just i i do sometimes worry that the Sounders... don't care about that stuff enough, right? Their philosophy is we're going to do the right thing that we need to do to win games and build the most competitive team that we can.
00:19:27
Speaker
And people will come along with us in the end. And the reality is that people don't always come ah along with them in the end. You know, they have lost some fans of players. Yeah, I mean... Yeah, and it'll be interesting. there's There's a few more changes to way the way the Sounders are running their business this year that I'm i'm curious to see how they work. you know and On one hand, they do feel like they're a little anti-consumer. you know One of them is that you have if you want full refund, if you want to get full credit for your season tickets, you've got to return them four days in advance, which is two days longer than it used to be. If you're only two days, you get 75%.
Fan Engagement and Attendance Strategies
00:20:03
Speaker
credit the good the upshot to this is that it encourages people to use their tickets and to not just sort of return them at the last minute when they can't be resold essentially ah and then similarly they're cutting the the entry half an hour so you can only get into the stadium an hour before the game instead of an hour and a half before the game in a way that doesn't feel great. You know, you like to give people choices, but there's probably something we said about, you know, not having as many people just sort of, you know, to like kind of compress the time that people need to get into the stadium. So there's a little bit more of a, an energy, you know, shortly before the game. I don't, I don't know how that one will work out. I'm curious to see if either one of those things end up really improving the, the atmosphere at the games which I think everyone agrees has just not been what it used to be and so they are kind of looking for ways to to change that now like you said one good way to change it would be to just sort of increasing the excitement around the team outside of game days you know last year the games were a lot more fun they they scored a lot more goals I would say that the the quality on the pitch the or the entertainment quality on the pitch was about as good as it's ever been but there was an element of
00:21:21
Speaker
okay. But we've seen, you know, it's the same guys that we've been seeing before, but they also had, you know, the, the league's cup final was one of the most exciting days at Lumen field in history.
00:21:32
Speaker
You know, the the club world cup games against Atletico and Botafogo and PSG were, were really kind of must attend events. So I don't know. it's It'll be interesting this year to see how this all goes.
00:21:45
Speaker
Um, I think that was the I'm trying to think if there was anything else. I guess I wrote it down here, so I should just look at my notes. ah Yeah, I guess that's that's those are the main topics we wanted to hit. But let's before we go to the mailbag, we do have these over unders that we want to get to. And we can have a little bit of a discussion about these.
00:22:06
Speaker
So, Aaron, um I guess i'll I'll just start off. I came up with all of these over unders. but we can kind of trade off reading them.
00:22:17
Speaker
I don't, I'm not great. I'm still not sure if I'm how, i how good at this I am, but we, well, we, we did the important thing this year, which was, we did 0.5s. I don't think we did that last year. So we have to do that later. drive one vo qui easy So I think, I think we, we did pretty well there. Yeah.
00:22:37
Speaker
Yeah. So, hey, that's a good start. and And we did get some
Player Performance Predictions for the Season
00:22:40
Speaker
feedback from folks. And I think we we had a couple of of ah suggestions in here as well. We did. We did. Yeah. ah Yeah. All right. So.
00:22:50
Speaker
Let's start off with this one. Pedro De La Vega appearances. And i will note that he had 37 last year, which is frankly more than I would have guessed. Essentially, he missed 13 games. But that's a lot of appearances. 37 appearances is a lot across all competitions. But he does he does start the year injured. He's probably going to you know all competitions at least 10 games just right off of...
00:23:20
Speaker
Jump 25 and a half is what I put the over under at. Aaron, what do you think? I took the over here. um I think that he looked until his weird kind of freaky knee injury at the end of the year. He looked pretty sturdy. I thought yeah on the stretch, he was playing a lot of minutes. um he He looked healthy. You know, i was getting pretty comfortable ah and, and then he got hurt obviously, but it's, it's not an injury that I'm worried about.
00:23:53
Speaker
lingering on and it's not an injury I'm worried about not a muscle injury problem yeah just the freak freak weird injury so um yeah so I I mean it's it's probably going to be tight um because he's going to be behind the eight ball a little bit already coming out of the gate but but I think you know I think there's a good chance he plays 30 games this year and and i'd I'd feel pretty good about that yeah I I hit the over to just because I kind of wanted to be positive about it. And 25 and a half is, you know, we're we're talking about him missing. If you were to only play 25 games, he would have to miss potentially like half the season, which I yeah would like to think is not going to happen. And of course, you know, he's going to have to get back into the starting lineup too, but
00:24:37
Speaker
No, I guess he doesn't really have to. These are just appearances. These aren't starts. yeah ah All right. You want to do the next one? Yeah. Next one up is Albert Rusnak goal contributions in league play and with primary assists. Now, I will admit I missed the fact that it was a primary assist when I chose my my choice oh here, but I'm going to stick with it. So the line we set. So 40 over the last two years.
00:25:00
Speaker
So he basically averaged 20 over the last two years. Right. um Slightly more in 2024 than 2025. I think I think he had like 22 in 2024 or something like that. um Anyway, it doesn't matter. I'm going to stick with the over. I feel less confident that I did.
00:25:16
Speaker
ah But I think he's I think he's going to have a big year this year. I think that he's going to be racking up the assist pretty, pretty significantly. And part of why I i included this is i I thought it was just kind of a good excuse to talk about his consistency over the last few years. He's tied for the fifth most goals and assists over the past two seasons. That's, you know, I don't feel like he gets talked about in that way.
00:25:41
Speaker
i also ran these numbers independently of this for non-penalty goals in primary assists, and he was eighth in that time, which is to say that he is up there with you know, you know, there's messy and there's Blanga and they're sort of in a different tier.
00:25:57
Speaker
But once you get past that tier, he's right there with all the other sort of stars of the league in terms of his goal contributions. And I just don't know that we talk about him with enough reverence in that way. and Yeah, i agree.
00:26:13
Speaker
And just in general, like you know, he he's been so consistent over the last, you know, eight years, I think is is how long he's been in the league. I don't know that there's anyone in the league that's been really more like he, he just puts up these numbers.
00:26:29
Speaker
I took the under, but I think it's going to be really, really close. Uh, you know, you could go 10 goals, seven a set primary assist. That's a good season, but it's not, you know, it would, it would be right under.
00:26:42
Speaker
yeah, I will say about Albert Rousnac and this is probably a this is a hot take. I'll classify it as a hot take. oh Hey, um, The Nico Lodero era of the Sounders was obviously, for a multitude of reasons, the defining era of the of the team.
00:26:59
Speaker
Yeah. MLS Cups, Champions League. He is the icon of of the club. He's the greatest player in club history. Yeah. Albert Rosnack is a better player than Nico was. I mean, he's best snack is the he's the best player to ever play for the Sounders. Now, c Clinton Dempsey was better in his prime, but in terms of their career with the team, I think Albert is is the best.
00:27:19
Speaker
I mean, one ah one of the interesting things I realized is that the last two seasons, Rusnak has been on again, just using primary assists. I i feel like Nico got more secondary assists than Rusnak does. But if you're going by primary assists,
00:27:37
Speaker
And even if you're going with penalty goals or not penalty goals, Rosnack's last two seasons were better than any two back-to-back seasons that Ladero had. I think they might be better than any two seasons he had. Ladero didn't put up really big numbers. I think that's kind of one of the funny things. He is ultimately a guy who is remembered for coming through in big moments in the biggest games. And that's why he is revered the way he is.
00:28:04
Speaker
but I also his DNA, like he left his DNA on the team. Like yeah was unquestioned to be Bladero's team in a way that it's not Rosnack's team. Yeah, I would agree with that. Sorry to interrupt. Yeah, sorry. No, I agree. It's just interesting. And and again, I don't, I don't know that,
00:28:19
Speaker
and I don't know if I feel like Rusnak is a better player or not than Ladero. I guess if you're talking about just their on-field contributions, I would agree with that. But really, if you're comparing Rusnak to the best sounder ever, that's a pretty good...
00:28:35
Speaker
frame of reference you know that's a that's a good conversation to be in uh and i feel like albert just doesn't get the the love that he he frankly deserves um all right so this next one is total games and i will remind everyone that the sounders last year played 50 games they set a franchise record the year before that i think they played 45 but i set the i set the over under at 45 and a half so in order to get to 45 and a half ah They are currently guaranteed to play 39 games because they have guaranteed two Champions Cup games and three Leagues Cup games. So they would have to play in a six additional games.
00:29:18
Speaker
If they were to play in the playoffs, that would potentially add two or three games ah Just right off the jump. So they would have to advance, I guess, is my point. They'll have to advance a couple rounds in order to hit this over.
00:29:34
Speaker
What do you think, Aaron? I went over. um i think they will make the playoffs. I think so. That's two games right there. Yeah. um I think that they are going to get out of the first round of the of the Champions League. um I think they're likely to ah get into the the knockouts of the League's Cup. So.
00:29:59
Speaker
Yeah, I think it could be tight. You know, they they don't have the three um ah Club World Cup games that they had last year. And, you know, they I think it's.
00:30:11
Speaker
I think ah fair to say unlikely that they're going to goingnna win the Leagues Cup again just because that's you know it's a hard thing to do. um Yeah. So it'll be tight, but I do think that... I think there's a good chance this team makes a pretty deep Champions League run this year. I think that they oh great they've got the horses for it, so I could see that. And and you're guaranteed two games every time you advance there, right? so Right. um Yeah, and I... you know So yeah, I'll go over, but I'm not super confident about this one.
00:30:41
Speaker
Yeah, i went I went over to. ah it's it I think Champions Cup is probably the the area that will push this to the over. But it's a you know it's a it's ah it's a pushy one.
00:30:55
Speaker
um All right. are You're up next, I guess. Yeah, so the next one is Andrew Thomas MLS starts. ah Fry has averaged about 33, right? he missed a game Yeah, during his his prime, he was averaging 33. Yeah, um so 2014 to 2019 is what you've got. Yeah, yeah. 30.5 is the number. I'm going to take the under, but I feel similarly similar level of confidence as the last one, which is not a huge level of confidence.
00:31:23
Speaker
Yeah, i I took the over here, which is really saying he's going to start effectively every game. Yeah. That is maybe a little too aggressive.
00:31:35
Speaker
But I feel like Fry is probably going My suspicion is that Fry will get maybe even. It'll be interesting what happens in Champions Cup. But I think for sure Fry will get League's Cup this year.
00:31:48
Speaker
and you know, if he gets champions cup too, that would, you know, I think that, that bodes well for Andrew Thomas racking up MLS starts. So yeah, yeah. I'll, I'll put my chest out. I'll say the over.
00:32:01
Speaker
All right. I love it. All right. So Osase De Rosario goals, you know, and I want to note something here. ah we put this in the discord and we asked people for suggestions on the, on the over unders. And definitely there were a few people that suggested De Rosario, but they came in with some wild numbers. Like they were saying like 15 and a half and some kind of like, crazy like numbers that I'm not saying he's incapable of doing, but let's, let's be real.
00:32:31
Speaker
He's coming off a five goal season. He has one career MLS goal. I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves. I set the over under at nine and a half, which I feel like would be ah pretty, which is pretty aggressive. I thought, I thought nine a half was pretty aggressive. I agree. i agree. Nine and a half is aggressive. I mean, that's a, that's a good season. is a good season. That's the sounder single season. The MLS record is what? 16, I think.
00:32:59
Speaker
Yeah. So, you know, that's, that's three quarters of the way there. ah a trend here. I'm not super confident, but I went under. um i I think he's going to be right around there. Like, I think he's going to score a good amount of goals.
00:33:14
Speaker
If you can get eight goals from your second forward, I think you've got to be pretty happy with that. I think we're a little bit spoiled getting as many goals out of our second board as we did last year. so Eight puts him in the sort of Will Bruin-ish category, right? Of like a guy that is contributing big time with his chances. Now, the the the the wild card here is how long is he the starting nine? Right. The starting back nine for a couple of weeks, this is, you know, nine and a half. I feel confident with the under. If he just wins the job, I mean, he he could very easily get into double digits. So right um I'm going under, but I think he's going to have a good year. And if he gets...
00:33:50
Speaker
eight, nine goals, he's going to hit the under, but I still feel really great about that as a, as a season for him. Yeah. I, I, you know, partly to, have conversation. I, I picked the over. I do think he is, you know, it's an interesting gambit.
00:34:05
Speaker
Like I said, it's basically saying, do you think he's going to be the starter or not? And there's, you know, there's, ah there's a bunch of things that could derail that. Uh, one of them is Danny was that he doesn't start strong and Danny Masofsky gets his back. Right. And,
00:34:21
Speaker
And, you know, we hardly see any De Rosario at all. And the under becomes a real lock. There's also a scenario where, you know, it's entirely possible that the whole reason that Jordan is out on the left is really and a planned temporary solution to a short-term problem. And those problems are that both Pedro de la Vega and Paul Areola are hurt.
00:34:46
Speaker
And that once one of the, or sorry, yeah, one, De La Vega's hurt. Areola is not fully back yet. But there's a ah realistic possibility that if Areola just gets fit,
00:34:59
Speaker
and and healthy that he is starting at left mid. And you got to imagine that in that scenario, Jordan Morris moves the forward, unless of course, Osase De Rosario or or Danny Masofsky, I suppose, is just tearing it up at the number nine.
00:35:14
Speaker
And, and so this is really like, this could be decided in the first two or three weeks of the season, whether or not he's going to hit the over or the under, because if he's, if he's continues the form he's in right now,
00:35:27
Speaker
you know, he might hit the over easily. yeah And I guess that's sort of what I'm gambling on. Yeah. This is an interesting one because it is like a feast or famine, right? I think he's either going to be comfortably under or blow it out of the water. Most likely.
00:35:40
Speaker
Yeah. All right. So this is ah a bit of a trend here, but I'll, ah I'll let you do the next, the next one. Yeah. Next one is Jordan Morris goals. ah The, the note here is he's only had one mostly healthy season where he was below 11.
00:35:54
Speaker
I think that was 2022. Right. So, uh, well, no 20, no, 2017 was the only year that he went. Right. Cause he only had like three goals. He had actually a bad year, even though he was on the field a lot. Uh, but anyway.
00:36:09
Speaker
Yeah. The, the, so the over under here is 13 and a half. Um, I am less convinced of my answer here than maybe any of these, but I went over. I, i for whatever reason, just think Jordan is going to have a big year. um But it's kind of similar to the last question, right? Where if he ends up playing primarily on the left, he could have a great year. And and and still go under. Yeah. Yeah. um i I'm hopeful that he's back at the nine um before too long and and that he'll comfortably hit the over here. Cause I think if he can get a full healthy season at the nine in this team, he could, could go, he could be, yeah he could blow up. Like he could score 20 goals.
00:36:51
Speaker
I think if, if he gets that chance. So, so yeah, contingent on him getting most of his starts at the nine though, I think. Well, I took the under in part because I feel like he's going to end up playing on the left a lot more and he might end up having a productive season. He could have, you know, 12 goals and nine assists, which would be a great season, but it would wound still hit the under on this.
00:37:16
Speaker
Uh, I don't know how long he's going to be out at left, but ah i feel like as long as he's there, his goal scoring totals are going to be depressed as a result of that. Yeah. So I i took the under.
00:37:31
Speaker
We'll see. I would love to be wrong on that one. All right. So the next one to close this out, Danny Masofsky goals. i I think I maybe went a little too aggressive on this. I said 10 and a half is the number.
00:37:43
Speaker
And that's a lot less than he had last year. He obviously had 18 total goals last year. This would be a big drop off. But I think this is really a question of, do we think he's going to be a starter this year?
00:37:57
Speaker
And if he's a starter, 10 and a half seems very low. But i ah it feels like right now he might not be the starter. Yeah, and i i don't – I'm happy with with that, I would say. He had a hell of a year last year, scored a ton of goals, a lot of fun to watch.
00:38:16
Speaker
ah I don't think that that was a repeatable season. And I think that if – kind of like Asaze, right? If he's your if he's your second you know your second nine and he scores eight or nine goals, you've got to feel pretty great about that, I think. Yeah.
00:38:33
Speaker
But I just I don't think he's going to be the starter. And and I think he's he's going to struggle to get to double digits again, especially because a lot of a lot of last season, he was just really the only option. Like, it's easy to forget, but he looked like 2024 Danny Masovsky for a good chunk of the first part of the season. Yeah, it wasn't really until April when he when he sort of hit that. i think he had a five game streak where he scored in consecutive games.
00:39:02
Speaker
And up until then, he had not, he looked like, I mean, I remember I wrote, I did a video talking about how Danny Masofsky is better than we were giving him credit for. And he had this game against San Jose where he he had like two and a half XG and he didn't score a goal.
00:39:19
Speaker
And I was like, no he keeps getting into these good spots. He'll, he'll start finishing. And eventually he did, but there was a lot of frustration before he, he sort of blew up.
00:39:30
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. I think that, um and you know, to, to be fair, right. He, I think was pretty much right on his, ah his XG. He was, yeah. polls So it's not like he was finishing at a clip. You don't, you wouldn't expect to be sustainable. no His XG was great. Yeah. Yeah. But I, I just, I think that it, this might be the kind of a situation where a guy who was historically a below average finisher had a year where he finished at a, at a pretty average rate and,
00:40:00
Speaker
Maybe you would expect some regression there. I don't know. Yeah. ah Next one is Christian Roldan MLS appearances. You know that this is a hedge against World Cup related absences and you set the line at 25 and a half.
00:40:17
Speaker
Yeah, so i You know, ah I don't he doesn't necessarily have to miss a bunch of games for the world, even if he makes the World Cup.
00:40:28
Speaker
MLS is taking a break on May 24th and they aren't coming back until July 16th. Even if he makes the World Cup team, I don't think he would miss more than sort of a game or two there.
00:40:42
Speaker
And that's, but at the same time, he has to stay healthy. And if he plays a bunch in the world cup, they're going to want to give him some extra time off. That said, i took the over.
00:40:54
Speaker
Maybe I was too, maybe, maybe this was too soft, but that was, I, I took the over too, but I think it's, it's a good number because I think that um Christian has been a very durable player. He's been a very reliable player the last few years, but he's going to be playing a lot of minutes again. and even if there's not an overuse component, right? Because I know that that's a, that's a debate that we we have a lot. It is in the fan base, right? Of like, Hey, they're, they're monitoring these guys minutes. They're monitoring their fitness levels. They, they're not going to put them at risk.
00:41:27
Speaker
The more minutes you play just by virtue. I mean, the more time you spend driving a car, the more likely you are to get in a car accident. Right? So the more games he's playing, the more minutes he's logging, the more likely he is to to pick up an injury.
00:41:39
Speaker
um And so I think you've you've got to prepare for that possibility. But i went over as well. I think he's going to play probably like 30 MLS games, 30 MLS appearances. mean, if he gets to that, that would be great.
00:41:52
Speaker
Yeah, I think like if this were starts, I probably would have taken the under. But for appearances, you know, I think I think the over is. All I'll take you over. right. ah Oh, wait this is you, right?
00:42:07
Speaker
No, i I read the last one. this Okay. So this is Sounders goals in and MLS. So last year they had 58. That was the second most they'd ever scored.
00:42:20
Speaker
But yeah ah the number here is 58 and a half because I'm i'm trying to trying to be pushing it. ah Yeah, yeah.
00:42:33
Speaker
I took the under, um but i there's nothing about the performance last season that I think was flukish. They figured out the most effective way to score a lot of goals with the personnel they had, and they went out and did it. 58 is almost misleading because of how many goals they scored in League's Cup, but at the same time, they didn't really figure it out in the attack until April, May,
00:42:59
Speaker
they were pretty putrid before that. So I think there's a good chance they, they, that this is the best attacking team in the history of the, of the Sounders. I think that maybe they score, you know, they finally break the 60 mark again, which I think the last time they did that was 2014. Right. So ah I think it's possible, but I'm i'm going to go with the under here just to be wet blanket for no other reason.
00:43:22
Speaker
Yeah, you know, i I picked the over and I'm just being bullish. I think that there is nothing that they did last year that struck me as unsustainable. I mean, they created a ton of chances. they They put themselves in very you know good finishing spots. And if they continue to do that, I think that they're going to continue to score Lots of goals. I think, you know, there's a there's a handful of players who I think could have big seasons this year, could have improvements on what they did last year. i think, you know, really, Masofsky is the only one who I think is is really likely for some regression just because he had such a big year.
00:44:02
Speaker
yeah But yeah, i I took the over and I feel reasonably confident about that one. Yeah, and I would say even if Masavsky regresses pretty significantly, if you can get a decent ah you know contribution from Masaze de Rosario, then that offsets that a lot, right? If Jesus Ferreira starts scoring goals earlier than he did last year, that offsets that. Right.
00:44:24
Speaker
Yeah. um Yeah, I'll stick with the under, but I do think it's going to be close, and I think they could blow it out of the water. Yeah. Next one is the other side of the coin, goals allowed. so ah the average of the last two years is 41 and a half. So that seems like a good place to put it, uh, for, for the over under.
00:44:43
Speaker
Yeah. Uh, I took the over. I am not totally convinced that they have fixed their defensive issues. You know, they, and it's really, it was really about their set piece defending last year. That was the biggest culprit in the change from the previous two seasons to this one.
00:45:03
Speaker
And or to the last one. And, you know, i'm I'm just not totally convinced that they fixed those problems. You know, that they they were a little unlucky on on set piece defending.
00:45:15
Speaker
You know, they I think they allowed two more goals than the XG should have that they they should have, according to to XG. But. that's not a lot like they weren't great defending set pieces regardless. And I just am not totally convinced that they have fixed the defending, but I also think that their ah offense is going to be better.
00:45:35
Speaker
And honestly, 41 and a half would be, if they give up 42 goals, it would be the over that would still be six fewer than they gave up last year. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's, uh,
00:45:49
Speaker
I do think the set piece defending is a problem and I think teams are also very much aware of it. And i think it's going to be it's the the biggest concern I have about the team. I went, I took the, uh, the under, um because I, I think they gave up the set piece defending issues were real, but I think that they gave up some,
00:46:11
Speaker
pretty fluky goals that I don't think they would you can just plan on again like I think their defense was a little bit unlucky last year to give up I think 48 so um but again I'm not super confident in this one either and and frankly if the choice is the 2024 way of winning games or the 2025 way of winning games i I'd probably take the 2025 way of winning games even if it gives me some heartburn to to give up those many goals that many goals
00:46:37
Speaker
All right. ah So we might have to speed this along a little bit. Yeah. i'm I'm realizing I put a lot of things in here. ah I'm going to skip over these next two. I don't think we I don't know how much we care about home points and road points.
00:46:53
Speaker
I do like the idea of doing this over under, though. Nuhu assists. ah I set it at two and a half, which would, you know, actually be a career high. ah But he had two last year, which tied his career high.
00:47:08
Speaker
And I don't know. What do you think? Can Nuhu get three assists? no No, I don't think so. I'm taking the other
00:47:18
Speaker
but unfair i took the over. i think he i i feel like I have seen. I've seen improvements and I am I'm going to I'm going to put my my weight behind that. I yeah, we're going to go with that. I, of course, hope very much that you're right. I mean, him him turning into a average ah attacking left back would be monumental. So it would it would it would it really would.
00:47:46
Speaker
ah Where will they finish in the West is the next one. You've got the over under at two and a half. and for this So that's meaning they would like if they finished third, that would be over.
00:47:58
Speaker
And if they finished first, that would be or second, that would be under. Oh, OK. We're back where I got it backwards. Okay, yeah. I'm going over on this one. I had under because I misunderstood okay what we meant here. Yeah, I'm going under um or over. Sorry, I think that I don't think that the Sounders really prioritize finishing that high on the table. I think they want to peak at the right time and and they want to compete in every competition and sometimes that leads to worse regular seasons.
00:48:30
Speaker
so i I took the over as well with the idea. Sort of same thing. This is a team that I you know, it is one of the funniest stats to me is that they've only won the finished first in the West once.
00:48:46
Speaker
Yeah, that's crazy. That is crazy. Yeah. They've won MLS Cup more times than they have finished first in the West. I mean, I guess they finished first in the West in 2020, right? So no, they finished second.
00:49:00
Speaker
Did they in 2020? Yeah. Sporting Kansas City finished first. No. Sounders finished first. What? I'm looking the table right now. Yeah. But that season didn't. I mean, they played. OK. 22 games. they They finished first that year.
00:49:17
Speaker
They finished first and they also played a one more game than Sporting Kansas City. So I don't really know oh how much we should care about that. OK. OK. Officially, technically, they did finish first. OK. Fair enough.
00:49:31
Speaker
Well, ah anyway. Next one. ah
00:49:37
Speaker
Is it? but do Oh, I'm reading this one, right? Yeah. Yep. How many playoff rounds will they compete in? i said it at two and a half, which means to get the over, they would have to get to the conference final. So do you think they're going conference final or fall short? i I took the under because of the last one. i think they put themselves at a disadvantage ah by with this playoff format by not. Yeah.
00:50:02
Speaker
not finishing higher. So I think it's going to be tough because they basically where I figure they're going to finish in the table, they probably have to win multiple games on the road to to get there. So, yeah, I I said over. I think this team is I'm i'm I think they'll do good in the playoffs.
00:50:23
Speaker
Yeah. i I, again, not super confident. That's the kind of funny thing about this is we are oftentimes having to go against our rooting interests. Right. Yeah. we're doing Very much so. Yeah. ah Next one, kind of similar. CONCACAF Champions Cup games. You've got the under over set at four and a half, which is basically we're asking, are they going to get to the semifinals?
00:50:45
Speaker
Yeah. ah I took the under. I... I feel like their path is just going to be tough. They, you know, I could see them beating the white caps in this next round, but then if they win that game, ah i mean, if they win that, I'm looking it up now, but I'm almost positive that they have a bunch of Mexican teams that they're going to have to go through in order to.
00:51:13
Speaker
do. Yeah.
00:51:16
Speaker
So I don't know. I'm not super optimistic. I would love to be wrong, obviously. Yeah, I think that they have the team that could make the run, but it's going to be a tough if they, if they make their own.
00:51:29
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. Um, let's see if I can find this really quickly who they, who, with their path is no, this is there. Oh, yeah here we go. All right. So if they were to, yeah, they, they have the winner of Tigris, most likely Cincinnati in the, in the next round.
00:51:48
Speaker
And then if they got through that round, I guess that would hit the over, but to get past them, America or inner Miami is probably who they'd have to beat to get to the final.
00:52:00
Speaker
Yeah. Although, you know, because not, and not impossible, but it'd be fun ride. No, but it's tough. You know, it's a, it's a, tough it's tougher than 2022. Right. So, yeah.
00:52:13
Speaker
Yeah. Which, which, Hey, was not easy. Let's not pretend that 2022 was easy. No, no, it wasn't. It wasn't. I mean, but it, it was probably easier this would be.
00:52:24
Speaker
Yeah. All right. i'm I'm going to jump another one, though, because in ah in the idea of time, this is kind of a fun one. How many summer transfer window moves will they make from outside the organization? I set it at one and a half. So they'd have to make two signings from outside the organization.
00:52:45
Speaker
Well, actually, I'm not going to say outside the organization. Just two. One and a half is what I... period. Cause I don't know if they have room on the roster to sign two guys from outside the organization. Yeah. I took the over because I think they will make at least one impact signing. yeah and i think they'll probably promote a kid this summer. So I'm going to go, I'm going to take the over. I could see them making two senior level signings as well.
00:53:10
Speaker
Um, yeah i'll take the over if they if they make it if they sign a guy and they trade for somebody does that count or are you just talking about definitely yeah yeah it would definitely because i could definitely see them making a trade and and bringing somebody in so i'm gonna take the under just for fun i do think they're gonna make at least one notable move this summer but i don't know if they've they've got two i'd love to i'd love to be wrong i'd love to be wrong yeah Next one is total DP minutes. Last year was 4,074. That's an MLS play. An MLS play, yeah. You've set the number at 4,200 this year, and I've taken the over. I think that they'll clear that probably just barely.
00:53:51
Speaker
Yeah, i keep in mind, so most of those minutes, over half of those minutes, were just Albert Rusnak, and then dala Vega had like 1,000-something, and Jordan Yeah, actually, I think I feel pretty comfortable comfortable with this one at this point, now that now that you mention it.
00:54:09
Speaker
Yeah, i mean, if you just have, basically, if Albert and Jordan stay healthy all year, they they'll clear it easily. This is probably too low. I'm also going to take the over.
00:54:21
Speaker
Yeah.
00:54:23
Speaker
And then we're going to close it out with the average home attendance. I set it at 31,000, which would be a slight increase over last year, which was 3,093, which was itself a slight increase over the previous year where it was like 30,070 something.
00:54:41
Speaker
Yeah. I took the over here. i think that that, I think that that uptick is real. I think that the crowds post club world cup were notably bigger and better.
00:54:53
Speaker
And I think the critical thing is going to be that they can't shit the bed coming out of the gate again this year. Like they have to, they don't have to start setting the world on fire, but they can't be boring and bad again for the first two months of the season. No. And and it's going to, and they do have their work cut out for them. You know, they have one home game and then they have five road games, but this is, here's the part where i don't know if it will make a difference, but I am hopeful The Sounders are going to be playing on grass all basically during the whole run up to the World Cup. And they might have grass. so they're going to have at least six games on grass this year. They might have seven. I suspect they'll have seven because there's a game against the Timbers on July
00:55:37
Speaker
nineteenth I believe July 17th. That is right after the last world cup game here. And then there's ah a long stretch where they are a multi-game stretch where they, they don't have grass or they don't have um any home games.
00:55:52
Speaker
I, I don't know. I i think people are going to want to come out and see the grass. i think I think that's a great point. i do and And I think that they're going to get a little bit of a bump from the World Cup, especially having it in the U.S., especially if Christian gets significant minutes, right? Well, and i think, and I my i don't know, the what's interesting about the World Cup is that I don't get a lot of buzz from that, but I do think there's going to be a lot of...
00:56:15
Speaker
discussion about soccer and soccer is going to be on people's minds. And I don't know that the world cup is going to be, I don't know what's going to happen during the world cup here, but I do think that the sounders are going to be well positioned to capture some of that buzz. And I hope that they, you know, I hope that they do it. You know, the guys on loving scorchers made a comment about how,
00:56:37
Speaker
the the game in Spokane might actually be more important to building their fan base than and the games, the World Cup games are. And I think there's some truth to that. But I think you take those things together and I think there's a real opportunity for the Sounders to really lean into some smart marketing this year.
00:56:55
Speaker
and And I'd i' would like to think that they can keep this upward trajectory on attendance going. And I'm going to also take the over here. and Yeah. and and hope for the best um all right well let's take a break we're gonna come back we have some mailbag questions hopefully someone was taking notes on that we took we did take notes this time just so you know we did uh but if anyone wants to compare and uh call us up and let us know how we how we messed it up again or whatever the we this spurred a lot of debate last year but anyway let's take a break we're gonna come back do the mailbag you listen to no study at this
00:57:35
Speaker
Sounder at Heart has been around in one form or another since
New Magazine Announcement
00:57:38
Speaker
2009. In 2026, though, we make a pretty significant evolution when we go analog. Yes, that's right. In the year of our Lord, 2026, we are publishing a real-life magazine. We're calling this thing 4, as in Sounder at Heart 4.0. But we're stylizing it as IV because we absolutely love Roman numerals. And if you want to refer to it as IV, that's cool, too. The first issue has a comic book-style cover that was hand-drawn by local artist Kevin Newbern. Features by Tim Foss, Susie Rance, and Charlie Bohm. A statistical deep dive by Kat Bush. A Q&A with Brian Schmetzer. A column by G. Willow Wilson. And photographs by Noah Reif, Max Aquino, Mike Russell, and Jane Gershowitz.
00:58:18
Speaker
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00:59:33
Speaker
Welcome back to Nos Adiates. We are doing the first mailbag of 2026. Aaron, you want to just jump right in and let's do it.
00:59:44
Speaker
ah First question is from Dorcas. How was your off season? You know, it was it it felt like there was a stretch there of maybe a month where I really felt it was off. like I was getting almost antsy. It was so off-season-y.
01:00:01
Speaker
yeah ah The Sounders went out earlier than they have gone out in recent years, and i actually felt like I had downtime that almost lulled me into a false sense of of like...
01:00:15
Speaker
relaxation. And then once the preseason really got going and I decided to, we decided to do this magazine and we got an office and we started doing all this other stuff. All of a sudden, like the stress came slamming down on me.
01:00:32
Speaker
And so it's been a very weird off season for me. a good productive off season. went to Spain, obviously it's been a kind of crazy off season for me. ah how about you, Aaron?
01:00:45
Speaker
That's been fine. I got a tattoo. oh See anything else? Not really. that's pretty much it. It was good. You know, I'm i'm ready for the season to start again, though.
01:00:57
Speaker
When was the last time we recorded? December? Was it in December? November? I think it would have been November. Yeah, because the MLS Cup was in December. And I think the last show we recorded was was after the the loss in in Minnesota. So.
01:01:10
Speaker
Yeah. So very different off seasons. Yeah, very much so. Yeah, very much so. ah ah But you got to go to Spain. So I did get to go to Spain, even though I was only in Spain really for two two days. But that's true. That's fair.
01:01:26
Speaker
It was it was good. It was good. I enjoyed it. ah I'm sure we'll do it. Eventually, we'll get around to really talking about it. ah Maybe maybe mean not right now. Yeah. All right. So this is kind of a two part question. the first part is from nerd farmer and he says, can we get a rundown or some speculation about the pursuit of new investors that felt like a loud public announcement followed by a relative radio silence. And then better than our good friend, Dave Clark, of course, a nerd farmer, I assume is Nate.
01:01:55
Speaker
ah
01:01:58
Speaker
I would assume so. Uh, but if not, somebody is stealing his gimmick. Right. Exactly. ah for a new, our new investor, would you prefer a big money that's distant from the region or smaller money that adores Puget sound?
01:02:10
Speaker
Uh, I will kind of leave the first part of this to you. Other than to say it, it feels like a hurry up and wait kind of thing where it's like you put the call out there and then there's a lot of really boring business shit that happens. Right. But right i I, mean, for the second part, I think it depends entirely on,
01:02:28
Speaker
what their, what share of ownership they're getting, right? Like if they're just putting in their 20%, there are 200 million in equity and they want to be major partners, but still, you know, secondary to to Adrian's influence and stuff. And obviously I think it'd be great to have somebody from, from the area that, that loves Puget sound and and is really invested if they want to come in and take majority ownership and build a stadium into the city of Seattle and, uh, you know, uh, start spending a lot more money on the roster and all that good stuff. As long as they're not like Peter Thiel level evil, I don't really care where they're from.
01:03:04
Speaker
Yeah. Uh, I would, ah i would, I think I agree with that. I think one of the the misnomers though about this, process that they're going through is that if we take them at their word and they're just looking for sort of a 200 million equity kind of partner, that's not going to change the way they spend money. That money is most likely going to be invested in a new stadium and that new stadium seems to be likely to be in long acres. I don't see, i'm I'm still not getting a lot of indications that the current ownership group is, is wavering from that belief.
01:03:42
Speaker
And so if, if people are hoping for something that really shifts the paradigm of how the sounders operate and they want someone that wants to like invest in being in Seattle and and go big, it's going to have to be someone that comes in and and makes a big swing, probably buys Jody Allen's shares, buys all this new equity, and then probably makes a bid to a bunch of smaller investors in the in the club too.
01:04:11
Speaker
and And maybe we get something, i don't and I don't know. I have mixed feelings about all of that, except yeah I really want them to stay in Seattle. I still do feel really strongly about that being the way to go. ah But to get to NerdFarmer's first part of this question, i i am not hearing anything specific other than, you know, there was a thing in Forbes that said that they are getting close finding, you know, to closing a deal on this $200 million dollars thing. But I have no idea who that is. I'm not hearing anything.
01:04:44
Speaker
I don't know that I would be necessarily, but it it seems like you're right. It is sort of a lot of radio science. And I'll say that that broadly mirrors the whole Longacres thing too. You know, it was like three years ago that the whole possibility of moving out to Longacres was first floated.
01:05:02
Speaker
And there's been almost no public outreach about that since then. Right. ah Yeah. And they've they've got plenty of time, right? Like their lease at Lumen runs through 2032, think.
01:05:13
Speaker
but that's not no amount of time, right? It takes some time to build a soccer Well, that was the whole thing when they started was like the reason they were kind of floating it as soon as they were is because they knew they needed time.
01:05:26
Speaker
And that time seems to like, it's not run out at all, but it's just right. it It almost makes me wonder if they have made up their minds fully that they're going to do it. And they're not saying anything because they don't want to deal with the,
01:05:38
Speaker
Right. I mean, nat press I don't think that's the craziest belief. Yeah. Which sucks really bad, but we'll we'll we'll jump off that bridge when we come to it.
01:05:49
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. Anything else on that one? No. All right. So the next one is from Tyson. ah With the upcoming changes in League's Cup formats to include matches in Mexico, will the Sounders 2025 League's Cup trophy eventually be diminished like how we treated DC United and LA Galaxy's Coffee Cup Champions Cup wins in the 90s after the Sounders 2022 CCL? Oh, you know, that's a fair, fair question. If what ends up happening, the League's Cup is that there's like and almost a, if not full blown parody in the way that the games are hosted, but there's, you know, a real path that you have to go through Mexico that will fundamentally change the way that people view yeah leagues cup.
01:06:31
Speaker
I will say that Sounders at least had to play a road game in this right in their win. So that's, you know, I think that, at least puts this in the u s open cup sort of category where they, i think they sounders had to win at least one road game every year. They won U S open cup. I remember correctly.
01:06:52
Speaker
Yeah. But, um, You know, it's it it will definitely be different. There's no question about it. And the centers were not even the first team, the first and MLS team to win League's Cup.
01:07:02
Speaker
ah They will always be the first MLS team to win all of the North American trophies. So, yeah, yeah, they're. Yeah, I mean, I definitely do think it diminishes it somewhat. or does It does. and thats I mean, it is what it is, right? Like you win the competitions you're in at the time.
01:07:22
Speaker
um Winning an MLS Cup in 2026 is way harder than winning one in 1996 when there were like four teams or whatever. Like it's different and people people understand that. And that's that's OK.
01:07:35
Speaker
You know, that's that's fine. It doesn't take away from the achievement. It just makes it different, puts it in different light. Yeah. All right. This is from W. He says, we know that Brian tends to be somewhat conservative with his personnel and tactical changes season to season. I don't actually. Yeah, I was going to say, do we that? I don't know i agree with that premise. But yeah ah what do the offseason moves tell us about how the squad will take shape on opening day?
01:07:59
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I think that Brian is stubborn at times to change tactics or personnel once he's decided on what they are. But I think that there are often pretty significant wholesale changes yeah in the offseason. Yeah.
01:08:12
Speaker
But in terms of what you know what the moves tell us about ah how the squad will take shape, I mean, we know to knew who's the starting left back. um We know Obed's not going to be there. We know Snyder Brunel's probably going to get some some more minutes.
01:08:29
Speaker
um We know that the depth is not what it was, and so that's going to be that's probably going to change some things, right? Will the bench get used as much as it did?
01:08:40
Speaker
Um, but i think the biggest thing is like, he's willing to try different stuff. He's willing to, to, you know, give Osazi de Rosario a chance to win the starting striker job.
01:08:53
Speaker
Um, he's willing to play around at left back, you know, to, to see what the best fit is there for, for the the backup. And so really it tells us we don't have that much of an idea, I guess we don't have a great idea because he's tried so many different looks and and there's a lot of open questions.
01:09:10
Speaker
Yeah, i i I still don't feel like we've seen enough of the Sounders from a sort of tactical level view to have a great sense of what, if any, changes they have enacted. Like there's been you can see sort of elements of this two, three build that they've talked about.
01:09:30
Speaker
i I would feel very uncomfortable trying to clearly articulate what the changes are. But I i do get the sense that there have been some tweaks.
01:09:42
Speaker
Next one is from KW underscore 2026. We've seen some very savvy and astute intra-league player acquisitions, as well as burgeoning pipeline that's producing some high quality MLS talent.
01:09:52
Speaker
With these successful strategies in place, are we also likely to see a decreased emphasis on making any future large transfers such as OpenECO and Raul going forward? You know, it's a fair, a very fair question. And I do think that there has been already some...
01:10:10
Speaker
some almost fundamental change to the way the Sounders are approaching the transfer market. Like that, it does feel like they, they don't want to go into the transfer market just sort of to say they did. I think they are much more likely to be active in sort of the,
01:10:31
Speaker
the cheap market, so to speak, like a Georgie Manungu. I feel like it's very illustrative of the kind of transfer that they want to be making. You know, this, this guy, they just signed from Omaha, whose name is currently escaping me as a 19 year old who,
01:10:47
Speaker
you know I think they see him as like a buy low, but potentially high upside play. And i I do think that there is an element that they've they've just sort of figured. that They think that they can they found like maybe a ah inefficiency in the market.
01:11:04
Speaker
Right. And that the inefficiency is like people that teams that want quick fixes and are willing to spend big. Now, I don't think that precludes them from... making big swings when they need to, like if a open DP spot comes open in the next couple years, I don't see why they wouldn't want to spend big on that. And maybe they're sort of combined. They're pooling money.
01:11:30
Speaker
And hopefully that's their approach. That's, this is like, well, we haven't spent a transfer fee in five windows. Maybe this is the time we do it. That would be cool. ah So, yeah, I mean, I do think it has, but I do, I guess the answer is yes. I think they have sort of changed their philosophy about transfer spending.
01:11:47
Speaker
Yeah, and I think that to some degree they they've had to because for a long period of time, the only way to really separate yourself in MLS was to get the best DPs because every all the spending below the DP level was guys that were pretty much all the same.
01:12:06
Speaker
And you know if you if you had good scouting or good coaching, obviously that was going to give you an edge, but it really was a a league where the DPs made the difference and the Sounders were I think I've been really good at recognizing that that's not as much the case and they want sure things in their DPs like a snack, you know, for example, ah they're willing to take a risk on a player like Pedro de la Vega, obviously, but their strategy is holistically building the best roster rather than making the biggest splash as possible. and And I think that that makes plenty of sense, but I do feel like there's this narrative that like, well, the Sounders just don't pay transfer fees. They never will. Yeah.
01:12:41
Speaker
uh and that that those days are over and yeah i mean they they just paid one in 2024 that was pretty big um all things considered lots of people wanted to pay bigger ones more often i totally get that but i do think when they have a dp spot open if there's not somebody out that's out there on a free that ticks all their boxes they'll they'll pay a fee and i think that's you know that's pretty pretty fair to assume yeah All right. This is from Eric from our current roster. Please rank who you think is most likely to eventually play in champions or the Premier League. Oh, that's an interesting.
01:13:16
Speaker
Yeah, I mean... Snyder, Brunel, and Stu Hawkins are the two that kind of pop into my mind because they're young and who knows how good they're going to be. um There's nobody else on the roster currently that I think has a a real great chance of playing in the Premier League, I don't think.
01:13:33
Speaker
um But I could see somebody like Jesus Ferreira playing in the Champions League with... you know, a team in Belgium or something, right? Like, I don't, I don't think that's out of the question at all. He's still plenty young enough to make it move to Europe. So, um, but outside of that, I mean, i don't think Jordan Morris is going back to Europe.
01:13:48
Speaker
Uh, I guess Christian Christian could, if he has a great world cup performance, but I think the odds are super low of ah of a player, you know, he's, he's 30. Um, those guys just don't usually move to Europe at that age. Um,
01:14:02
Speaker
New who I suppose is an outside possibility, but I think if he goes to Europe, he's probably not going to be going to a, to a champions league caliber club.
Spotlight on Georgie's Potential
01:14:09
Speaker
Um, there's always a chance, you know, somebody goes and plays for like a team and, you know, i don't know, Moldova or something. they They play in like a early, early, early stage knockout, but I don't think that's the spirit of the question. Right. Um, so for me, it's Brunel, um, Hawkins and, and maybe Jesus.
01:14:32
Speaker
maybe Maybe Georgie, I guess, too. Yeah, i mean, I think Georgie is probably the player who I would put up there in the most.
01:14:46
Speaker
Like if I had to bet money on one guy eventually playing in Champions League, because here's my here's my thinking on Georgie. I don't know that Georgie will ever be a, you know, 10 goal, 10 assist guy. Like I don't necessarily think that, but he's got one skill that is transferable across leagues.
01:15:10
Speaker
Yeah. is all in it right now, especially is, is probably the asset that teams are looking for the most. And, you know I don't think it would be crazy for him to be sold for $3 million dollars to you know a team in Belgium right now and then get sold again to an even bigger club.
01:15:37
Speaker
He's got that kind of potential. Now, he may not fulfill it, but I do think he's he's got he's got the one most Champions League level skill of anyone on the team.
01:15:49
Speaker
I'll put it that way. Yeah, I mean, he he has his dribbling ability is this is a phrase that's often pretty meaningless, but I think makes sense in this case is legitimately world class.
01:16:00
Speaker
Yeah, like there is like a handful of guys that are better dribblers than Georgie. You know, it's it's it's it's un it's unreal. Yeah, it really is. So, um yeah, no, I think that's ah that's a good shout. I think he he's he's kind of in the Jesus Ferreira camp, I think, as well, where it's like he's he's probably not going to go play in the Champions League for Inter Milan or something.
01:16:23
Speaker
But for Circle of Bruges or something, you know, certainly a possibility. Right, right, exactly.
Roster Weaknesses and Number Nine Position
01:16:33
Speaker
Let's see. Is it my turn your turn? can't remember. Your turn. Veritatum7 asks, Personally, I'm very optimistic that this roster seems to have few weaknesses, but do you see anything currently besides injuries that could derail or lead to a mediocre season?
01:16:48
Speaker
Hmm.
01:16:51
Speaker
You know, i think the...
01:16:55
Speaker
i think there are some... questions in the attack still. And it's not so much whether or not they have talent there, but, you know, let's just say Osaze or whoever doesn't get going right away and they try moving Morris back, but he's lost some confidence. Like, I think there's some potential that there may be overthinking the number nine situation right now a little bit. Like,
01:17:29
Speaker
and and say So, yeah, i mean, I could see the number nine situation maybe not playing out, even though it feels it feels like a deep position, but it also doesn't feel like there's a guaranteeant like there's not one guy who's just locked into that spot. And I think that's always a little bit of a precarious situation.
01:17:49
Speaker
you know it's It's not quite like a quarterback where if you if you don't have a clear starter, you don't or if you if you have two two guys, you don't have a a clear starter. you know what mean?
01:18:00
Speaker
yeah And they kind of have three guys right now. Yeah. Even though I think Jordan Morris should be the starter. But so I could see the number nine situation like there.
01:18:11
Speaker
If things don't go well, I think there's a good chance it's because they ended up having a harder time getting the number nine position sorted than they should have. Yeah. Yeah. I like that one. That's a good shout. And I think.
01:18:25
Speaker
um something we talked about earlier in the over-under the defense, right? If yeah if the defense struggles and and the set piece defense doesn't improve, um that could be a problem. And last year they were able to outscore teams, but I think this year, if they do struggle to get that number nine situation figured out, if they struggle to find an identity with whoever wins that job and the defense struggles, I think that could be a, certainly ah a pretty big problem where they're not,
01:18:53
Speaker
They're scoring, but they're not scoring quite enough to offset a defense. That's not what like it to be. i could I could see that being an issue.
Key Position Battles and Jordan Morris's Role
01:19:02
Speaker
All right. This is from Twimberly23. There are quite a few position battles going into the season. What are the biggest battles and how do you think they will shake out? Is the expected winner of these position battles who you would want to win the spot?
01:19:15
Speaker
So obviously the big one is the nine. And in that case, um I think Jordan will eventually end up being the guy there. I just think he's, I just think he's too good to not be. um And I think once, you know, everybody's healthy, that he's, he's the clear winner there. But I think the left midfield battle is also kind of related to that one, right? Is it Jordan? Is Jordan the low left midfielder now is, you know, if Osase starts hot and Jordan is stuck on the left wing, right?
01:19:44
Speaker
Then where does Pedro de la Vega play? Because he played a lot on the right and he wasn't very good. And then he moved to the left and it was kind of a revelation. So does that shift Jordan over to the right? um What does that mean for for Jesus Ferreira? Like there are just so many downstream.
01:19:59
Speaker
Yeah. Impacts of both of those spot. Right. um So I think those two are pretty closely related um and and they're going to be big ones um outside of that. I mean,
01:20:12
Speaker
I think the central midfield spots are pretty well locked right now. I think that the center back spots are about as locked as you can get. There's not another left back. So new who's got that job. I think Alex is about, the you know, I think,
01:20:24
Speaker
The left back situation actually I think is going to be interesting because i i I'm really curious to see if we're right about why Reid was sort of deemed expendable and that the Sounders sort of are envisioning this new tactical approach where Rothrock and Areola are playing left back, but they're playing it almost like a wing back even with only two center backs. You what i mean? Right.
01:20:48
Speaker
yeah yeah Yeah, for sure. And so that's that's a caveat to that one is that, you know, it'll be interesting to see how that how that all shakes out. And I think it's, you know, it's fascinating.
01:20:58
Speaker
For all the trades the Sounders have made, I still feel like, you know, they probably have 18 guys who could all be starters and sort of impact the whole, you know, holistic roster.
01:21:12
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. All right. Next one is from T Stubs, and this is kind of a two parter just because of circumstances.
Cody Baker's Versatility Debate
01:21:20
Speaker
Should the Sounders be looking to loan Cody Baker, ideally to a level closer to MLS than USL? He's log jammed at either fullback spot and doesn't seem to have much more of a path towards minutes this year than last.
01:21:31
Speaker
He's shown himself to be a capable player and is still relatively young and then added later. Well, I suppose this just answered itself for the time being with Reed Baker Whiting being transferred. What are reasonable expectations for Cody this season? And now that and now that he has a clear path towards minutes.
01:21:46
Speaker
Yeah, you know, it'll be interesting to see how they end up using Cody because I i do like Cody. You know, he has had when he first broke into the team in 2024. 2023. When was that?
01:22:04
Speaker
I think 2023. Yeah. yeah Okay. He had like a nice run of games where it was like, hey, this kid is pretty good. Yeah, it was 2023. You're right. It was 2023. Yeah. And he's never really done anything to dissuade himself from being in that conversation.
01:22:24
Speaker
But he he just hasn't quite won over the coaches for whatever reason. He's never really gotten us a significant run of games. And part of that is is you know he's a little bit of an odd man out. He's not quite...
01:22:37
Speaker
big enough to be a center back. And I think that's part of what keeps him from playing there. He's not really fast enough and athletic enough to be a ah modern fullback. And so he, he doesn't have a clear position, but I, I still think he, he could be a new who style left back where, you know, more of a left-sided center back or a right-sided center back in a, in a three back set.
01:23:03
Speaker
So I don't know. I don't know what what pretends for him, but i think that's he's probably another reason that they felt like they had a little more depth than than maybe we give him credit for it. Left back.
01:23:14
Speaker
Yeah, that's ah I mean, that's a good c shout. I hadn't really thought about him, but there are there are um similarities between him and new who and the way they play that I i could see that. I could see him being that, you know, maybe they have sort of the, all right, this is our backup when we're winning. This is, this is our backup when we're losing.
01:23:31
Speaker
This is our backup. ah You know, when we need points, this is our backup when we, we, Yeah. Or fine with the draw, you know? um Yeah. It's a good show. But I do like it. He's a guy that like every MLS team needs a guy like that around, right? Who can play multiple positions, can be a break in case of emergency guy at multiple spots.
01:23:49
Speaker
And I like the way he plays. i think his biggest thing though, is he's just the like... He's perfectly competent, but it's sort of like the opposite of Georgie Minungu, where Georgie has some real holes in his game, but he's elite at one thing. And he's really, really, really good at that thing.
01:24:06
Speaker
Whereas Cody is just kind of fine at everything. And that's not a terrible thing to be, um but it's hard to get super excited about. And I think it's hard to impress enough that you're going to be beating down the door for minutes sometimes, you know?
01:24:20
Speaker
Yeah.
Impact of Grass Field at Lumen Field
01:24:21
Speaker
All right. So this is the the last question. And I'm glad we talked about this a little bit. What effect, if any, do you think having grass at Lumen Field for at least six regular season games, which is about a third of the home games and possibly more games, will have on the Sounders home form their familiarity with how the Lumen turf in particular plays has afforded them a home advantage. Just one home loss last year, a potential champions cup final at Lumen on grass would be amazing, but maybe a double-edged sword.
01:24:51
Speaker
Um, I am not convinced it's going to be a harmful thing. The Sounders were great at home last year and they were absolute dog shit at home the year before that. So, um, And then they've had been a pretty mediocre home team for long stretches of time. So I don't know that the turf really benefits them that much.
01:25:09
Speaker
ah I think that the way they like to play probably benefits a little bit from the turf because they have kind of a chaos ball element. So that's, you know, maybe that's a consideration, but I think the biggest, the biggest the factor is going to be the thing you pointed out earlier, which is people might be more willing to come out and see the games if they're going be playing on grass. This will be the first time. I mean,
01:25:33
Speaker
It is so pretty when the grass is out, it really is. And this will be the first time they've played on an actual proper grass pitch at home, not an overlay. Um, and the overlay pitches are they've gotten to the point where they're pretty decent at them, but I mean, this just the club world cup last year was, was pretty good. was impressed by. Yeah, it was, it was pretty good, but it's still, I think having, having grass for actual in the last play and, and everything will be cool. And, uh,
01:26:02
Speaker
if they're if they're bound and determined to build a stadium at Long Acres, I think Adrian talking that up is probably rough a smart idea. So I see how great this is, how how nice it is. Wouldn't it be really cool if we could play every game on grass?
01:26:14
Speaker
um But the thing that will be kind of interesting is how it holds up if we if we get you know wetter weather than expected. That's a great point. It's a good test case. yeah It is going to be a, you know, that that grass is going to get,
01:26:31
Speaker
presumably some pretty wet weather yeah yeah so that'll be interesting i mean if it goes to shit pretty quickly then that that's got to be uh something to think about i guess you know ah oh my god can you imagine it would be put all the effort into putting the grass down and then it just gets torn up i would be extremely amused by it i have to admit but it'd be pretty funny Well, uh, yeah. All right. Well, that's a good place to to call this, Aaron. It's been, it's been wonderful doing this again.
01:27:04
Speaker
yeah it has. Not that I don't know how much people care, but this year I think our goal is to record on Mondays. Yeah. And, and then that'll make it a little easier to manage the rest of the week because we'll do these Monday shows and then we have other things planned, but yeah,
01:27:22
Speaker
Look for our, this will will record on Mondays. It'll probably come out on Tuesdays. That'll hopefully be the cadence that we fall into. Thanks for listening. Thank you to our sponsor, Full Pull Wines.
01:27:34
Speaker
Thank you to our readers and subscribers for making this all happen. Go out and buy four. That's the new Center at Heart magazine. I think you're really going to like it. You can go to centerheart.com to find that.
01:27:45
Speaker
ah All that said, I'm Jeremiah O'Shan signing off for Aaron Campbell and Lickett. This is No Study Yetis, part of the Sounder Heart Podcast Network. Remember, you'll never get alone.
01:28:25
Speaker
Let's go at Sounders.