Transcript
Speaker: That's your home! for your home? Answer me!
Speaker: and welcome back to the Off the Tips podcast. We're counting down the hours, we're driving down Magnolia Lake. That beautiful harmony playing and it's a joy be to talk about One of our favourite weeks of the year, calling in from London, as always, is ACAC. How are you going, mate?
Speaker: I'm excited, Cal. Really looking forward to it. It's obviously great hours over here to be tuning into the golf. One of my favourite weeks of the year, for sure. It's, don't know, just some fond memories and and you really know where you were when you watched particular shots and things of that nature.
Speaker: How are you, mate? All good, mate. Masters Week's a pretty big one for the publication I work for. So I'll actually be live blogging the Masters on the weekend. So it's going to be some late nights for me over here, but certainly no complaints. I think it's actually going to be quite enjoyable and it means I've got no excuse but to watch every single shot.
Speaker: So, you know, when we break this down next week, I should be, know, well averse to to what went on. But, mate, I just want to point out one thing is our man, Angel Cabrera, leading into Augusta, getting a win on the Champions Tour after a couple of years in the big house.
Speaker: Just things you love to see. So do you think a 51-year-old Angel Cabrera might sniff around the leaderboard or but do you think maybe time's gone by?
Speaker: Cal, I would not pass put it past this man. Obviously, we don't condone what he did. When we say our man, we're not talking about him as a human being. We're talking about him as the golfer.
Speaker: um But obviously, oh, mate, he's an absolute dog around this track. You've got to hand it to him also. like Coming out of prison and winning a Champions Tour event no mean feat.
Speaker: Yeah. But what do you think? I honestly think he's a chance of being top 20. ah like i don Top 10 seems like a lot, but I don't know.
Speaker: I think, yeah, I think we could see him make the cut. I think that's a possibility. Look, I'm not really sure on his numbers after he's come out of a slammer. like Normally blokes do come out a bit fitter and maybe you gain some speed in there after doing some some chin-ups and press-ups on the yard.
Speaker: So maybe he can keep up with these young guys off the tee. But I think Angle could play the weekend, but that's probably about it. But AC, you said you're excited for the week. there any storylines in particular that you're looking forward to at Augusta this week?
Speaker: I think naturally, just being the first major of the year, there's always that sort of anticipation, like who's goingnna Who's going to have the big year in the majors?
Speaker: It's obviously the first time we've seen the Liv guys in PGA Tours playing together for a long time. And so that's I think that's always the main sort of storyline since the tours have split ways.
Speaker: um just I'm interested to see how Bryson, Cam Smith, Rahm, Neiman show up this week. I don't really know. as well, and there that I think that sort of makes it exciting as well. I don't know how to gauge Liv's form lines.
Speaker: um Just lots of unknowns, which is great. What about you? What I'm excited for is I'm looking forward seeing how the Aussies go this year. Jason Day, Adam Scott, Cam Smith, and Cam Davis came out saying that he's going to use some special kind of hypnotherapy to succeed at majors, which I love that. I love an alternative avenue that to win.
Speaker: Have you ever dabbled, sorry, this is just a side note, have you ever thought about dabbling in some hypnotherapy or had any stories about going those hypnotists?
Speaker: You'll know this. And I basically faced the yips in cricket bowling, and I genuinely thought about. Maybe hypnotherapy could be a go.
Speaker: Well, you never know. I'm keen to see how but that is in the minds of the, you know, considering hypnotherapy.
Speaker: That is some head noise, eh? But ive it felt like I'd need those sort of measures to overcome it at the point I got to.
Speaker: that is That is the depth of despair. have you rolled Have you rolled your arm over in the backyard or something and have they disappeared or do they? i don't know. I haven't actually tried to bowl a ball in probably three years.
Speaker: You never know, Cal. Maybe the demons will just somehow escape. Yeah, maybe. Maybe you should just save yourself next time you put the lights on.
Speaker: how This is getting off topic. Yeah, this is it. this is a diversion. um I'm also looking forward to Ludwig. I know we'll talk about a little bit later, but I loved what saw of him around there last year. And I i think he's,
Speaker: i think he's the man to be. I think he, or I think he's going win. So I'm really looking forward to seeing how he's run. But AC, do you have any more, more storylines?
Speaker: Obviously there's Rory. um and the big And Scotty, the two big guns. Rory obviously did complete Grand Slam. Scotty, would be quite interesting to have three green jackets as your majors.
Speaker: yeah know um I don't think that's done many times. Yeah, I think those two probably. think Victor's an interesting one. We might talk about later. Just a weird year, weird couple of years.
Speaker: One, at the Valspar, he still didn't seem that confident with how he was playing, but he beat a pretty decent field on a ah difficult golf course. So Victor's another one that i I just have no idea what Victor's going to show up this week.
Speaker: Yeah, you say he didn't seem that confident. i that That post-round speech after he won, he didn't sound like he had any confidence.
Speaker: He almost sounded like a little bit of disbelief that he'd won. yeah I love how candid he is. yeah And then Nance and Nobolo were in the box just like, wow, I'm speechless after what he just said.
Speaker: That's a guy that, I think that it meant that's a guy that's chasing perfection and that's not a good spot to be. So, look, I, yeah, hope who not?
Speaker: I think you can roll the dice with Victor. Victor, But another guy that I'm interested to see, know we're going to talk about our smokers this year, is Daniel Burgers in the field again.
Speaker: And that's a guy who was a Ryder cupper, played really well maybe three to four years ago, and then just had a couple of crippling back injuries, but has started to rear his head and play some good golf and quirky swing. just think a guy like that,
Speaker: could play well around Augusta and I'm interested to see how he goes.
Speaker: I'd have a lot to add to that. He's got a great all-round game, no holes in it, but I don't know. He's not one that came to the top of my head when I was thinking about picks for the Masters.
Speaker: Do you want to stand by someone? Are you going to put him down for a top 20? No, no. Are you like, oh, he might make the cut? Yeah, top, I think,
Speaker: top 25. Daniel Bergman, I I want to put it out there, I don't think he's going to win or be in the top 10. I just think it's his first trip back and I'm keen to see how he goes. and it wouldn't that's like A top 20 wouldn't surprise me. A top 15 would. I'm just looking forward seeing him play around there, to be honest.
Speaker: Nice. Okay, I gave you a task to do and what we would do is we were going to power rank our top five players so that we didn't end up just rattling off 50 names like we do on these pods. ah So, Cal, do you want to hit me with your top five? I just did this.
Speaker: Exactly. i thought I'd keep you on task. I'll go. Yeah, thanks, mate. I'll go my five to one. So, obviously, one being who I think is the top guy and five being fifth.
Speaker: So I'll break that down for all us. Well done, mate. You're really good at explaining these. Yeah, mate. It's early on here. But anyway, number number five is Algon Brooks, Kepke, a guy that you know consistently gets forgotten about it at at major championships when when you're when you're rattling off names like this.
Speaker: um And he's got five to his name. Form for him doesn't really matter. like he He'll be right up for this, as he always is. So he's my five.
Speaker: In four, I've gone Zander. Just was pretty much was the pick of the golfers last year. Maybe Scotty, two majors.
Speaker: Battled a little bit of injury towards the back in the last year and the start of this year and and came back a little bit wobbly, but starting to find his feet again. You can't rule him out at the majors anymore, that's for sure. And then you could probably pick pick the top three. I've gone Rory in three, although a little elbow niggle, I don't think that's going to stop him.
Speaker: I think, you know, he's made it pretty clear how much he wants this. He's played well around here before. It's the last piece of the puzzle, so to speak.
Speaker: I think we we talk about Rory every time we come to these sort of topics. So I won't dwell on him. And then Scotty chasing his third green jacket. He's my number two pick.
Speaker: I just think, hasn't won yet this year. and Another guy that, you know, had a kitchen-related injury that he's taken a little bit of time to come back from. But I think he's hitting his straps at the right time, which is exciting. Kind of all those those four guys I've already listed are kind of hitting the straps of the at the right time.
Speaker: And then my number one is Ludwig. I think I just really like him this week. The form line, not necessarily the greatest, but I think, I just think he's peaking and and he's got a he's going to win one of these at some point soon. And I just think He's cherry ripe for picking this week.
Speaker: Wow, there's a bit to react to there. No Colin? Yeah, I don't give you much time to respond. no No Colin, but um hes he's burning edges. I like ah yeah he i ah just left it out because he's just got stinky round of every every now and again. Well, actually not every now and again, regularly.
Speaker: And I just... I decided to leave him and and in that probably next tier. But um yeah. okay Okay. Are there any other, you want to respond to anything else out of those those five? or or you want to I'll go through my five and I might say why I didn't include.
Speaker: I'll do my five and then i'll as I go I'll say why I didn't include a couple that are on your list. Number five, I've gone Shane Lowry.
Speaker: Playing great golf. He's up to seventh in the data golf rankings. Doesn't have a great record around Augusta. oh I always thought he did. I checked before. um Yeah, he's had one good finish, but apart from that, it's been sort of average. But I just, I don't know, i have feeling. Hopefully a little bit of breeze and firmness.
Speaker: um Four, I've gone Rahm. I just think so easy to forget how good he is. He's won a green jacket. We know how good he is around the greens.
Speaker: Just a dog too. Three, I've got Colin. Cal, what have i told you? So he's playing a stroke better around this year than he did in his major seasons, 2020 and 2021. He's playing a stroke better around and that's field at strength adjusted too.
Speaker: Basically, I just feel like he hasn't had a week where everything's clicked and the putters got hot. But if he has a hot putting week, shit he could he could run away.
Speaker: but He's hitting the ball that well. um Two, I've gone Rory. Obviously playing great golf. He said two wins this year. Big events too, but No surprises. Number one, Scotty Scheffler.
Speaker: um I guess like you could put Rory there, but i just think scotty Scotty isn't playing that much worse than Rory, and he's won two of these.
Speaker: like My heart would love to have Rory up there ahead of Scotty, but I just feel that he's got an immaculate record around here. He's still playing good. ah He obviously set a high bar last year. um Yeah, but that that's my five.
Speaker: Xander, I just... I left Xander off because I don't feel that confident that he's quite ready yet. um But it's an interesting thing that he... If he won this week, he hot he has three three major trophies in his cabinet, which is pretty cool.
Speaker: Yeah, in a very short period time. Anything to react to there, Cal? Well, yeah, I know, like you said, about Lowry, I don't know if he's going to get the firm...
Speaker: The firmness, at least early in the in the the event, it's scheduled to be pretty torrential leading up into to the event, which also could play into a guy like Colin Tans, though. It's softened it up a ah little bit, doesn't shine it as much of a light on that putting.
Speaker: um So, no, mate, there's nothing really to liberate there. I think that's a pretty it's a pretty solid top five. And, yeah, I think... any of those guys we listed are genuine chances. But are there any kind of maybe Smokies that are sniffing around that you're maybe, i don't know, like $30 shots or $25 plus shots?
Speaker: I'll go a little bit better, but Sergio is balling at the moment. He's up to 16th in the data golf rankings, which is absurd.
Speaker: um Oh, Cal's just put on his Fireballs hat. I think it's signed by Sergio too. Yeah, it is signed by Sergio. Up my man.
Speaker: I'm in full lift. Cal, I'd be... You've come around.
Speaker: a just Anyway, what I saying about Sergio is the best he's been he's playing better golf than he did in 2017 when he won this thing.
Speaker: So don't be surprised if Sergio is lingering this week. Yeah, I i agree. He's been playing great. I actually watched him play in Adelaide. And ah all of those guys are impressive. But, you know, he was in those kind of couple that were were a different ilk, kind of around on the ball striking front, the way he chipped. It was just, it was a pleasure to watch him. i I love that take.
Speaker: It'd be good to see someone like Sergio um get a snip in another major, you know, probably with the career he's had underachieving with one major, would you say?
Speaker: Yeah, I think that'd be fair. That'd be definitely fair. That's a good take. Yeah, I'd take this Firewalls hat off. Anyone for you? It'd fucking rude, eh? Yeah, okay.
Speaker: ah Look, I know it's quite biased working in Australia. I like... I like Jason Day. I think he's got a pretty decent record around Augusta.
Speaker: play He plays well there. I'd love to see him just in the rudest kit in the final group and on Sunday, baggy pants, trucker cats, just flushing it all over Augusta.
Speaker: Had to withdraw from the players through illness, which is surely he's over that by now. So Jason some Day's a guy that that i like. obviously mean mentioned Daniel Berger a little bit earlier.
Speaker: And a couple of lefties, Akshay Bhatia and Brian Harmon, who just won on the weekend. I think, you know, we were talking during the week, AC, that it Augusta, for some reason, you know, favours the lefties. it's It's a bit easier for them around there. I think there's a couple of smokies chucking a couple of southpaws
Speaker: count Yeah, Cal. So I saw a ah chart. And so it's lefty win rates in majors since 2002. Yeah, it's a little bit contrived and handpicked.
Speaker: But Augusta is sitting at 30% and the Open's at 10%. The PGA's at about 8% and US Open's 0%. So there's definitely something to it.
Speaker: And I think mainly it's because the modern equipment, 13% thirteen pretty key tee shot. It's much easier to hit cuts with the new equipment. 10 as well, another key tee shot.
Speaker: Much easier to hit cuts. So yeah, it's definitely, I think it's genuinely a thing. As you can see from those stats, it's not not an unknown.
Speaker: um The other one that I just, last one for me is just Cam Smith. And I know he's really struggling, but <unk>s just There's something about this golf course that just lights a spark in him. He's finished in the top ten, five his last seven starts here.
Speaker: I just don't think you can ever rule him out around this golf course.
Speaker: No, I agree. It gets better the more creative you have to get, Cam Smith. so yeah there's no There's no denying that. and golf's better to watch when he's in contention as well.
Speaker: Yeah, so I put out some head-to-heads on social, Cal. um The first one was Rory versus Scotty. 58% said Rory. What did you put for that?
Speaker: I put Rory. that was yeah probably That wasn't really a head decision, but yeah, I put Rory. I went Scotty. um The other head head was Colin versus Rahm, which Colin won 64% to 36%. Who are you taking that? Yeah, I'm going Colin.
Speaker: Yeah, I'm going Colin too.
Speaker: The other one was Ludwig versus Zander. Ludwig won that one 82% to 18%. Yeah, I took Ludwig. Yeah.
Speaker: Next one, JT versus Bryson. Bryson won that one 62%. Who do you go with that? i took I took JT, a guy we haven't mentioned already in this pod, but yeah, I think JT's trending.
Speaker: Yeah, agree. I did JT as well. Spieth versus Smith. Spieth won with 57%. Who do you take? Yeah, I took Jordan. just That was a bit of a coin toss for me.
Speaker: Okay, I took Cam. Hovland vs Neiman, 27% went with Hovland, 73%. Neiman, who are you taking? i Yeah, I went with Neiman.
Speaker: Just think. Although underachieved at the majors, just think. He's playing better, even though he's up to one. I've gone Vic. I just can't get past Neiman's stinky record at majors.
Speaker: I think he needs to show me something first. um The next one was Lowry versus Brooks. Brooks. Who are you backing?
Speaker: ah Yeah, I took Brooks. Yeah, I went Lowry there. The Englishman, Fleetwood versus Hatton. 76% went Fleetwood. 24% went Hatton.
Speaker: Yeah, I went Fleetwood, but neither of those guys are going to fucking win.
Speaker: I agree with you on that one, mate. not Two more. Head to head, Day beat out Sergio, 60% to 40%. Who are you taking?
Speaker: i took Jay Day. That's another one that was a bit of a coin toss for me. Okay, I'm going Sergio. Last one, Rose versus Scott. 75% went to Scotty.
Speaker: Yeah, I think Scotty. I went Rose. A bit a rare time when we're not agreeing on everything, Cal. Yeah. Nah. It's good.
Speaker: I've got one for you. What about Angal Cabrera versus Bernard Lager? It's got to be Angal, doesn't it?
Speaker: Yeah. Who are you taking? Yeah, I've got Angal. I've got another one for you. What about Angal Cabrera versus the police officers on site.
Speaker: And how, he's got a golf club. Yeah, yeah. He's armed and he's got a jumpsuit. Surely he learned something at prison too. Yeah.
Speaker: Did we have any any feedback? we i know we got plenty of votes, but were there any feedback on those on those takes? i could probably have ah have a little There was some love for Cabrera.
Speaker: um Monty messaged us saying that he thinks Colin, Neiman or JT will win. can agree with Colin. Joaquin, I said it before, I just don't trust his major record and JT just doesn't play well at Augusta.
Speaker: don't know why. um Anything else, Cal?
Speaker: No, mate. Nothing else for me. I'm really looking forward to the week. so From pretty much today on, it's its unbelievable. I love it so much. There's going be a lot lot going on, but yeah, geez, it's exciting and it's a pretty spread kind of field. You know, you've got couple of guys that are clear favourites, but I don't think they're as short as they would be, you know, in previous years. I think this there's a couple of guys coming for them. So it's going to be a great week of golf and yeah, I'm thoroughly
Speaker: Looking forward to it. See, I think this is the easiest I've found making picks for Augusta. I think there's five or six people that can win this golf tournament.
Speaker: Yeah, I'm more meaning that the guys at the top, like Rory with his slight niggle and and Scotty, you know, hasn't won going into it this year. i just think, you know, they might have come back to those other guys a little bit.
Speaker: rather than yeah okay a bunch of guys making themselves, putting themselves in the picture. But, yeah that's just yeah, that's just what I think. It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds, though. But, yeah, AC, have you got anything to add before we we sign off and rip into this Masters week?
Speaker: No, nothing from me. I think we'll try our best to be quite active on socials. We say that most majors, and we're probably not as good as we should be, but we'll make a real effort this week.
Speaker: Absolutely. Anything from Cheers, guys. Nah, nothing from me, mate. Cheers, guys, for tuning in. Like, subscribe, share, and and we'll catch you all next week. And and and enjoy Augusta National and...
