Become a Creator today!Start creating today - Share your story with the world!
Start for free
00:00:00
00:00:01
Episode 76 - PGA Championship Preview
17 Plays4 days ago
AC takes the bull by the horns and is joined by Monty to delve into the upcoming PGA Championship at Quail Hollow. The boys get gritty and sink their teeth into the numbers and data. Oh, and Foxy gets a well earned shout out after his achievements over the weekend.
Recommended
Transcript
Podcast Introduction and PGA Championship Preview
00:00:16
Speaker
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Off The Tips podcast. I am running point today with Cal in Sydney, but alongside me is my good mate to preview the PGA Championship.
00:00:28
Speaker
Monty, thanks for joining us. How are you going? I'm good, mate. Thanks for the invite. good Good to be here, ready to riff into it as always. I thought maybe what we can start off with is, you know, what what's the fizz levels like this week?
Rory McIlroy's Impact on PGA Excitement
00:00:44
Speaker
Let's just do a bit of a temperature check.
00:00:46
Speaker
Yeah. um I think without Rory's win at the Masters, may have been a bit more tepid, but I'm pretty fizzed, to be honest. i It's obviously a golf course we see a fair bit of, so yeah the venue's not going to do the the shining light, but yeah you could sort of go a number of ways with how you want to think about this one in terms of the various players who are in good form. So yeah, I'm pretty fizzed up, to be honest.
00:01:15
Speaker
How about yourself? Yeah, it's a funny one. I sort of feel like i've almost got a bit of a hangover from the Masters still. I think more than ever this year I'm like, oh, wish this event was in August like it used to be. And I'm not sure why. i Obviously, ah can't wait to watch this week and and see what happens. There's plenty good narratives. But it does feel it does feel sort of like an elevated PGA Tour event if it didn't have the title.
Media Narratives in PGA Coverage
00:01:43
Speaker
Yeah.
00:01:43
Speaker
Yeah, I think the media has been very firm this week on like holding in on, you know, three, four, five narratives as opposed to maybe being a bit more open. Like you, you see historically, like it feels like you're only going be rattling off three to five names and in turn you'll forget, you know, guys like Ludwig and Xander and Jason and Day and all these guys who you know you can probably get it for for decent value. So it's slightly different from that point of view, reckon.
00:02:18
Speaker
Yeah, and I think the other big thing is Scotty's won since Rory's win and JT, who won here in 2017, and we can we can talk about that shortly, but I think that's that's added to it too.
Big Names and Tournament Excitement
00:02:32
Speaker
We've had beat two big names win. JT's playing good golf again.
00:02:37
Speaker
And even Bryson. Why in Bryson? yeah i was gonna yeah i missed bryson we've got three big names who have all won and it just feels like everyone is rounding into form at the right time which is definitely the most exciting part about this tournament i think obviously this is the first time we've been back at this ah event for a major since the 2017 pga championship where JT got it done.
00:03:06
Speaker
It was back in August in that time, as Monty's just informed me. um He won with minus eight. was wondering, did you have further look into that stuff, Monty?
Weather and Course Conditions at Quail Hollow
00:03:16
Speaker
yeah um yeah obviously august i think that time of year is probably a bit more summary than what we'll get now and you already see that in the weather conditions um yeah already i think it was a softish week back then um august is typically a wet month so with a bit of rain around uh so far early in the week you actually might see it relatively similar i mean patrick reed tied seconds
00:03:45
Speaker
Molinari was tied second that week as well. um yeah Other players who are currently playing in decent form, Hideki and Jason Day were both in the top 10.
00:03:58
Speaker
um So i thought I think the interesting thing as well is JT won at eight under. If you compare that to the last couple of years, the Wells Fargo being there in May,
00:04:11
Speaker
and the scoring's been a lot lower. So, you know, obviously the differential, the major, you know, the setup may be slightly different. But, you know, Rory won last year at 17. Wyndham won in 2023 at 19 under. So it will be interesting to have a look at the scoring this week as well.
00:04:31
Speaker
Anything to add? Yeah. No, nothing really. it's I do remember Rory talking about it in 2017, and obviously, you know, it's it's well known, his record around here, but I remember him speaking to how different the course was playing to when they hosted a regular PGA Tour event. It was a lot firmer.
00:04:52
Speaker
lot more difficult and he said you know it was almost a completely different golf course it was probably a bit of hyperbole on that but it definitely um spoke to the way that they'd set it up and i i was listening to your podcast the other day and was johnson wagner talking he's a member at qual hollow and he was saying it's it's the thickest rough they've they've had there for a for a long time at the moment so I think they'll control scoring, but I i think he'll be better than eight under would probably my take.
00:05:25
Speaker
Yeah, yeah. Maybe around like 11 to 12 sort of operation. Yeah. And even um last year, even at the Wells Fargo last year, ah Rory won it 17.
00:05:41
Speaker
I think Xander was second at 12 and then another gap between them to nine under. so yeah, yeah you could so you could argue the field was probably around that, you know, 10.
00:05:53
Speaker
And then a couple of guys just really broke away. So, yeah, if it's showing its teeth even more, know, it's probably in that range. Yeah, and as we're recording this, it's been very stormy in Quail Hollow, but in Charlotte, sorry.
00:06:08
Speaker
um But it does seem like the weather forecast is going to get better throughout the week. So hopefully, i just hope it's not a complete dart fest, but by the sounds they've redone the greens, they'll they'll play pretty firm regardless of...
00:06:24
Speaker
it's wet or not. So that's, that's good signs.
Ryan Fox's Recent Performance
00:06:27
Speaker
um Be remiss of us not to talk about, I think first after his win, I think we should talk about Foxy first. Monty made the cut back here in 2017. Just want your reaction to his win. Yeah.
00:06:42
Speaker
his one yeah it was little bit like it was good timing in new zealand i was uh just sit in the office and didn't do a lot of work for an hour or so there managed to catch fair bit of him down the street she was pretty nailed had a real good iron shot and into
00:06:59
Speaker
17, made a good two. um And, yeah, obviously the chip in pretty electric and, yeah, just shrugging it off. It was, yeah, it was a real good duel. Like, Harry Higgs was playing pretty good down the back, the front row club, if you will. Yeah.
00:07:17
Speaker
Which is good to say. Yeah, just yeah the relief, obviously, the exemption, the $720 US, in the FedEx Cup now, so hopefully it frees him up a bit. mean, he did say in an interview after that win,
00:07:33
Speaker
He loves playing there. know, that's a sample size of one for him in the context of tournament golf. And I suspect he hasn't got out there a lot in between time. But and I was having a look at his stats earlier. Sort of driving accuracy obviously can be an Achilles heel for him for, know,
00:07:54
Speaker
forever and a day but this year it's been a real issue um and what's what's really dragged him down and you know putting can be a bit hot and cold but your driver accuracy was you know a lot better um ah lot better last week and you know hopefully that that continues and feels like you may not be sort of a an out and out bomber's paradise but if it's soft you know definitely favors the the longer guys and probably those are a bit more strength and swing speed if the roughs as thick as you know what what's alleged to be so yeah he's um the resume is looking pretty sharp now so ah hopefully he can make it happen in one of these at some point so yeah what's a good week from you think uh top 25
00:08:45
Speaker
Yeah, I think so too. Anything, to be honest, the way he's been playing, anything top 40, I think, yeah you know, be happy with that. Those numbers I was looking at were pretty ropey and he is, you know, I think he might be over 100th in the world in data golf rankings at the moment, even despite a good week last week. So, yeah, 115th. So, know, was an outlier. I don't know.
00:09:12
Speaker
the very least, it's a freeing up of the big month. Exactly. And he also said that he was um was pretty gutting watching the Masters and it fueled him a bit.
00:09:23
Speaker
So I'm hoping you know a good week here, his season back on track and get his season back on track and you know Hopefully he gets into the other majors as well And there's just one more thing The occasion hasn't been an issue either He's been pretty good under the stretch of late When he has had a chance And that was another example Obviously made the cut in all eight majors Or in the prior two years Which very few players did And then he did top 20 at the players Earlier in the year as well so Yeah agreed Players Monty who Who do you want
Jordan Spieth's Current Form
00:09:58
Speaker
to go with first? who's
00:09:59
Speaker
Who's top of mind? i but yeah anywhere um so We go space to start? Maybe we can bat that one away. Yeah.
00:10:12
Speaker
yeah Obviously better a bit of chat around the Grand Slam. I think this is the media and I think it's our job to add a bit more sense to this chat, if you will. I did some digging. This year in his defense has been a bit better. Like if you break down...
00:10:32
Speaker
ah what's been happening, you know, driving's been a bit better. Um, but if you look at a sort of 50 round average versus say a top 25 player in the world, putting approach and around the green are all below, um sort of the top 25 player in the world.
00:10:51
Speaker
ah off the tee, sort of only the in line. The train has been a friend and that they all improving a little bit, but, um, e Yeah, he's still... Except approach, he's still sort of a below a top 100 player benchmark on um yeah all those sort of key stat lines. So I actually had look at his tournament record. The last time he finished within two of the lead on a PGA Tour of event, including majors, excluding the century because that's sort of a bullshit was 2023 when he lost in a playoff at the Heritage. So it's been...
00:11:31
Speaker
yeah Over two years since he's been within two of the lead at the end of round four. um And you have to go back more than two years since his last top five in a major.
00:11:43
Speaker
And probably not and until the 2021 Open when you say he had a chance in a major. And that was when Colin won. obviously sort of COVID times and, you know, the course didn't really show its teeth back then either. so um That's wild.
00:12:02
Speaker
So that's, we're talking a long period of time here. So... And I think also, like this without Rory doing what he did at the Masters, we wouldn't even be talking about him, I don't think.
00:12:14
Speaker
And maybe maybe the flash in the pan at the CJ yeah added some fuel to the fire. But, yeah, that was – I'm not going to extrapolate.
00:12:30
Speaker
Yeah, and i there was a pretty hilarious interview he did, and he was talking about how he makes five bad swings a tournament, basically, and it costs some eight shots.
00:12:41
Speaker
And it's probably fair, um but it's also like, I feel like he's been doing it for two years. i don't think it's something, it's just a freak accident, you know? Yeah, yeah.
00:12:53
Speaker
And so I sort of get sick of it. i think I just think he's a bit overhyped at the moment. He's another guy until he actually shows me something. Yeah.
00:13:04
Speaker
I mean, I don't mind the guy and I don't mean to burn him up, but yeah, it was pretty pretty alarming, those those numbers. oh wait wait Oh, golf's in a better spot when speed's relevant. and um But it just feels like at the moment, you know, he shouldn't be having to get a captain's pick on Ryder Cup teams.
00:13:25
Speaker
and But he he has.
Bryson DeChambeau's Potential Impact
00:13:28
Speaker
So... Yeah, I don't think he'll win this week. It'd be cool if he was in the mix, but that's all I've really got add there.
00:13:38
Speaker
um I think the next person we should talk is Bryson Monty. Yeah. In the majors in America, we'll rule out the Open. just because I don't think Open his go. he i don't know. There's so many feely shots when you're in the Open with wind, as we know, as we've sort of found out over the last couple of years on our golf trips. And I just feel like stuff like that, you know, you can't work that out, you know, a calculator.
00:14:09
Speaker
You can't pace them out. It's just a, it's purely a feel-based thing. And so I don't, let's rule out the ah the open, but... but His last start, he's gone T20, T6, second, win, T5.
00:14:23
Speaker
But that T5, he's also playing in the final group and didn't have it the last day. And I guess all I'm saying is he's just been a massive factor in the majors and it's it's hard to see at a course like this that he won't be again. It's not going to change. The only thing I'd add is, you know, heard from our colleagues at NLU today listening to their preview pod that In 2025, off the tee, Struggs gained 1.97.
00:14:54
Speaker
So he's leading. You sort of sit there and say, Rory, you'd think it'd be Rory, and he's had an amazing year off the tee. He's second at 1.07. Struggs gained off the tee. So yeah Bryson's 0.9%.
00:15:09
Speaker
shots per round you know call it nearly four shots over ah over a tournament ahead of rory off the tee and i can only assume there's probably even more daylight there know between rory and the rest as well which was quite scary and you know should fit the mold well that's crazy yeah yeah that's um and i think Looking back at that 2017 major, there was all this chat. I mean, there was a lot of good iron players rather than, I'd say, the bombers.
00:15:42
Speaker
But they've also lengthened a few tees, and there's a couple of holes, like 16's the one that sticks out to me, where Rory and Bryson can just fly it over that bunker on the right, which is about 315, 320.
00:15:56
Speaker
But that's where they get these advantages around these places where there's these fairway bunkers that are just... on the limit of most players, but these two don't even, they just say goodbye to them. So they fly them over. um And that, yeah.
00:16:12
Speaker
Yeah. I don't love Bryson, but I do think he's going to be in the mix and I'm excited to see him in the mix too. It brings a different element. ah The only question mark I probably have is his iron play.
00:16:23
Speaker
It was squirrely the whole week at Augusta and it sort of all came to, to bear out on that last day, I feel. Yeah. I mean, in that third round, you know, watched tons of it. His, his short game was unbelievable.
00:16:37
Speaker
Like, yeah. ah Sustainability, more question mark. Where do you want to go next?
Justin Thomas' Chances at the PGA
00:16:43
Speaker
it's I think JT. Yeah. Played well last week.
00:16:49
Speaker
Pulled a couple of putts late. um Obviously won here in 2017. He's won two PGA championships. He knows what he's what he's doing in these events.
00:17:00
Speaker
He's playing great golf. I think he's... So he's plus 2.09 this year, strokes gained. And for a bit of reference, when he had the five-win season in 2017, he was 2.23. So he's...
00:17:15
Speaker
two point two three so he's He's close to peak JT. Yeah. Those last four starts, second win, tied second, and then the Masters in between there, which he's never played well at. So um super hot.
00:17:31
Speaker
Like to your point on the stroke gain, I also broke it down. Approach around the green, putting all right back where they were, you know, near top of the pops in the world. the only thing that's not quite there versus say that 2017 references is off the tee but you when you when he won the heritage just a few weeks ago lost strokes to the field off the tee so um yeah that's the one area if you were to be super nitpicky but he's proven to win without it so um super dangerous super dangerous um
00:18:06
Speaker
It'd interesting to see the perception of he did win, like how you sort of think about a trio of um PGAs and then the rankings of that. It's probably a discussion for another pod in itself. Yeah.
00:18:20
Speaker
ah what It is a strange one. um Yeah, I don't know how i feel about it. I feel like you've almost got to discount one of them. Yeah. Maybe it's... I don't know. Particularly with two at the same venue, if it was two of them, sure. Okay, Monty, I was looking at... don't know, was thinking about the PGA Championship and how it sort doesn't have doesn't always have an identity.
00:18:44
Speaker
And so, since 2010, there's... is Other than JT, there's four players. They've got a solo major, and that's being a PGA Championship. Do you you can name them for me?
00:18:55
Speaker
Oh, yeah. Oh. Um...
00:19:03
Speaker
Jason Duffler. Yeah. Jason Day. Yeah. and
00:19:15
Speaker
I'll be forgetting someone obvious probably. one of them One of them, ah the no-lying-up boys say that the major didn't happen. Oh,
00:19:27
Speaker
gosh, I'm drawing blacks. Can you do the other two? Jimmy Walker and Keegan Bradley.
00:19:38
Speaker
i just thought that's a that was sort of my start of my golf watching, that sort of run of four major championships. it was quite nostalgic looking at that.
00:19:50
Speaker
The only one, Jason Day is probably the only one where, yeah, that's an interesting list. Great trivia. Okay, I think we've gone this far without talking about Rory.
Rory McIlroy's Expectations at Quail Hollow
00:20:04
Speaker
what What are your thoughts? this There's a lot of chat after Augusta about opening the floodgates, which I do agree to an extent um because I don't think a round's going to get harder.
00:20:17
Speaker
He's not going to play harder round of golf in that than that in his final round, at Augusta but I also think he's got to reset and sit set new goals now and get himself sort of the amount of focus one of these events takes to win is but next level and I just hope that he can find a way to sort of just get back into that grind yeah I think that I think it goes without saying it'll be a feature, right? Like he's played there 13 times. He's won four times and he's finished in the top 10 five other times, including two top fives. So, um,
00:20:53
Speaker
You'll probably read all about that. and He sort of disappointed slightly when the PGA there was last in 17, tied 22nd. Yeah. have been the year he was a bit injured.
00:21:05
Speaker
I can't remember. was. And he... I think he just switched... He had to change clubs as well. Yeah. That's when Nike stopped making clubs. It was a bit of a weird period in the Rory era.
00:21:19
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, generally, it's... I tend to agree like, you know, we were probably saying Victor was going to win a major by now at this point.
00:21:30
Speaker
Hasn't, you you could rattle off all these names. You go back two years and we're saying, oh, Brooks is going to get, it's, you know, I think, and even Scotty's, you know, small hiatus, you proves the difficulty of it. So,
00:21:44
Speaker
I probably don't have a lot to add. yeah know Obviously, if it is if it does say soft, that's helpful. um Yeah, i don't have a lot to add apart from it's bloody exciting.
00:21:55
Speaker
Yeah, I agree. I think he'll be relaxed. um Pressure's off a little bit. I find it hard to believe that he won't be in the mix sometime at some stage.
00:22:07
Speaker
He's got to be a factor. Actually, one thing I just – quick thing on JT. His major record is smelly outside of his wins. um I just looked at my notes and thought – so Since he won at Southern Hills, he's gone T37, T53, missed cut, cut, missed cut, missed cut, T8, missed cut, T31, T36. Yeah.
00:22:31
Speaker
It's bleak. He hasn't been playing good golf in that period either, you could probably argue. You could also argue winning at Southern Hills was...
00:22:45
Speaker
you know winning there winning at southern hills was He got crowned a bit. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
00:22:55
Speaker
um I would rather, yeah, a lot of chat about if you go JT versus Spieth. much rather JT win in my mind. Yeah, same. ah Monty, any others on your list?
00:23:08
Speaker
We haven't touched on Scotty. don't have much to add, probably in the Rory camp. Yeah. obviously one would assume he'll be there. Xander, Xander's beginning to trend. Like you look at his last, um, had him up there before, like quietly, quietly, you know, making, making moves. Last four starts, T12, T8, T18, T11, without, without making a whole lot of noises.
00:23:40
Speaker
For the second, karal hollowler the last two starts he's had there. So course fits good. it just feel yeah It's probably me a decent sleeper if you want to call him that, which might be unfair.
00:23:54
Speaker
Yeah, it feels like a week for the horses, Monty. Yeah. Anything you want to talk to us on, I sort of want to see more in these non-Augusta majors.
Scottie Scheffler's Preparation for the Tournament
00:24:10
Speaker
He hasn't played at quite a while other than the President's Cut. is it This has been the signature event that he's always left off, and that's I guess he always plays his hometown Dallas tournament.
00:24:24
Speaker
um But, yeah, so he hasn't actually seen this place. And historically, he's always been a player who plays well at the same venues. So I think that's an interesting little wrinkle.
00:24:37
Speaker
yeah um And I think what there might start to be some questions. If he doesn't have a good week, I think it's a real genuine question. is um Does he need to have – he does have Ted Scott on the bag, who I'm sure would have played a few times with Baba.
00:24:56
Speaker
But, yeah, I do think there's something there with it.
00:25:02
Speaker
He's such a methodical player that I think prep so mead familiarity is such a big thing for him. Yeah, yeah.
00:25:13
Speaker
No, that's an interesting point. But other than that, I actually, and I've been trying to think of some sleepers, but i just, I can't actually pull one out that I think, oh, this is a roughy that i everyone should should have a look at.
Michael Block's Tournament Prospects
00:25:29
Speaker
Do you have anyone that you think is sliding under the radar? No, not really. um Like, nah, don't have a lot to add. Yeah, and you've got... We'll probably wrong and someone will come out of the woodworks. Someone will flash.
00:25:46
Speaker
these like You've got players like Lowry... uh hovland could flash hideki ludwig but it's just hard to know where they're at and it feels like there's five or six players just playing better golf than them i was high on colin before augusta and he just let me down and i've sort of just tossed him aside until he puts his big boy pants on
00:26:12
Speaker
do we want to talk michael block i want to I want to get an over under his two-round score. I want to say two-round score because I'm pretty confident he'll be missing the cut.
00:26:24
Speaker
Yeah. it if When you posed this question to me half an hour ago, I went straight to look where the cut line was in 2017. So plus six, you missed out. So plus five got you in.
00:26:38
Speaker
Um, you're probably saying the cut's not going to be as high this year. Maybe it's a, a couple of two or three lower. Um, but he's probably not even near there.
00:26:51
Speaker
So mala where I landed on sort over power was sort maybe plus eight to plus 10 with my, uh, was my thinking. I thought i'd plus 11 in my head.
00:27:06
Speaker
i So maybe he's missing the cap by six. I don't know. Maybe he could miss it by Mordo when I think about it. Yeah, he definitely could. He's done in PGA Tour events.
00:27:20
Speaker
I think we could be being kind at plus 10, plus 11. I agree. I feel like that week at Oak Hill was a real flash in the pan, and I hope I don't get to see that again.
00:27:33
Speaker
a spin He hasn't played a pro tournament since August last year and has run a form prior to that. It was pretty bleak. A lot of NCs. Yeah, tough.
00:27:44
Speaker
Yeah, take that all away. yeah I don't need Michael Block in my life.
00:27:52
Speaker
I don't need grown men weeping over it either. Oh, take that away. golfer doing his job. um Yeah. Yeah. Anything else, Monty? I'm actually, i think I've cleared the decks.
00:28:07
Speaker
um I'm happy. I think it's sort and sweet. Give me a top three.
00:28:13
Speaker
ah I'll do it in order. I think I'm going to go one Rory, two Bryson, three Scotty. I'm going to go one Bryson, and two JT, and three Rory.
00:28:27
Speaker
Yeah, let's wrap that up. Thanks, Monty. Obviously, me driving the ship, I feel like I'm sort of building the plane while flying it. So hopefully it sounds all right, guys, and enjoy the PGA Championship.
00:28:44
Speaker
Thanks for joining, Monty. Thanks, man.