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Episode 399: Sounders-Quakes Preview
93 Plays2 years ago
Jamon Moore of Quakes Epicenter joined us to preview Wednesday's match against the San Jose Earthquakes and explain how Luchi Gonzalez has managed to improve the woebegone franchise.
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Transcript
Introduction & Sponsorship
00:00:00
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime sounder supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, the Pacific Northwest.
00:00:21
Speaker
Hey, this is Christian Roldan. And Jordan Morris from the Seattle Sounders Football Club. And you're listening to... There's no study at this. Here we go. Come on! Hey, Ocean! Let's go! What a save by Fry! The Seattle Sounders have done it! MLS co-pointers! Here comes Ray D'Ace from the middle to crowd it! The vehicle! And now they truly can't stop the celebrations.
00:01:04
Speaker
Seattle Sounders, the greatest MLS team in history. This is a tiny f***ing doll.
00:01:34
Speaker
Is
Guest Introduction & Game Preview
00:01:38
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of NOS Adietes, sponsored by Full Pool Wines and Watson's Counter, as well as our sub-sax subscribers. Joining me today to help preview the upcoming game against the Southern earthquakes on Wednesday is Jamin Moore of Quakes Epicenter, which is a patron supported website. That's why it was on my mind. But thank you for joining us, Jamin.
00:01:42
Speaker
that why you young people call twerking?
00:02:04
Speaker
Hey, Jeremiah. Good to talk to you again. We get to catch up at least twice a year. Yeah, exactly. Becoming regulars.
00:02:12
Speaker
Yeah, exactly, exactly.
Match Recap: Sounders vs. Red Bulls & Quakes vs. FC Dallas
00:02:13
Speaker
But yeah, so the sounders are coming off a 1-0 win against the New York Red Bulls. The earthquakes are coming off a 1-1, let's say a 1-1 loss to FC Dallas. It was a tough one, I would think, to stomach, right? The equalizer comes in, what, the 90, late into stoppage time. I think in order to kind of
00:02:37
Speaker
worried too much about walking out of that game with a point you kind of would have to be a rosy rose-colored glasses earthquake span to begin with because
00:02:47
Speaker
You know, the goal itself was not all that impressive, right? That's a good point. And so I thought that the lead flattered the game. Honestly, it probably should have been a 0-0 draw. I don't think there was a lot of attacking prowess displayed by either team, but maybe that's what happens when you get two coaches that kind of come from the same coaching tree in a way and kind of play with very similar styles or pressing triggers almost like exactly alike.
00:03:15
Speaker
Like, it's kind of like the two Spider-Man's pointing at each other when they play these days. And of course, you know, Lucci Gonzalez coached there. And so, you know, the players know each other very well. They know him very well. They know what he's trying to do. You know, and it hasn't changed all that much. You know, and both coaches were assistants under Greg Perhalter. I mean, how much more alike right now can two franchises be? They both got academies that are up and coming.
00:03:43
Speaker
Well, that's the algorithm for a while, but the earthquakes, as everyone's seeing right now with the U20s, are showing really well also. I think a 1-1 is fair because I probably thought it should have been a 0-0. I think the quick span should take the point and not worry too much about the drop points.
00:04:04
Speaker
However you feel about that one, it is sort of a recurring theme for the earthquakes this year. They now drop eight points on stoppage time goals, either turning wins into ties or ties in the losses. How much of that is just a weird variance of when goals happen and how much of that is an actual concern for the earthquakes?
Earthquakes' Stoppage Time Struggles
00:04:33
Speaker
Well, I'm not, I think for the fans, it's a concern for me. I'm the data guy that does the American soccer analysis stuff on the side, right? So I'm looking at that as a little bit of a weird variance. Look, teams drop points on the road in MLS all the time. These are the first two points. The Quinks have dropped at home. You could say the other six came. I mean, Tiago, Armada.
00:04:57
Speaker
You know, uh, you know, with his two goals in the very first game of the season, those are points dropped right there. Uh, another one was the Red Bulls game with the, with the racism incident with Van's ear, which added on another 20 minutes of stoppage time in that game. That's another one of the games. So you're talking is just some weird situations to begin with.
00:05:18
Speaker
that some of those points were dropped in. So while the number doesn't look great, look away teams quite often get leads and drop them in MLS because home field advantage is so strong. Teams come back. It doesn't bother me like it bothers a lot of the fan base. I do think there's a lot of variance in that. So maybe one of those things that probably looks a little worse
00:05:42
Speaker
in the way I shared it then when you're sitting there and living the live reality of like how each one, like each one seems like it has a unique explanation as opposed to this idea that the earthquakes just can't close out games.
00:05:57
Speaker
especially when you include the 20-minute stop and shine game by itself, sort of throws off that whole way of looking at it. That said, the earthquakes have been overall really good this year, especially at home.
Home vs. Away Challenges for Earthquakes
00:06:12
Speaker
This game is obviously on the road, but it sounds like maybe the road record is a little better than, or the road performance is a little better than the road record would suggest.
00:06:22
Speaker
I think that's true. And it looks like both teams are going to come in with less than optimum strength in this game. Both teams have injuries. They both have players at the U20 World Cup, including Kate Cowell, who's been the regular starter on the left.
00:06:42
Speaker
Jackson you'll might have a bit of a knock trying to play through it right now they're not revealing a lot about that so you know there's there's a lot that's kind of going on on both ends um the quakes might be out to starting outside backs
00:06:57
Speaker
given that Carlos Acapo had a hamstring injury about three, four games ago. They haven't looked great since Acapo left the starting lineup. The offense has not come together quite as strong. Christian Espinosa, who looked like a world leader earlier in the season,
00:07:13
Speaker
has come back down to Earth, and that's his side, right? And so these are all factors right now that the earthquakes are, for the first time in, let's say, even several years, I guess maybe the 2019 first Mattias Almeida season when they kind of came out after the five losses and then just went on a super hot streak of winning like nine or 10 games. They're not used to being in this position.
00:07:40
Speaker
Um, 18 points banked early in the season is, you know, over half of what they banked all of our season. So, you know, yeah, at this point, like it started off hot. It's cooling off, but this is also the road stretch. Um, a lot of road games in here, the last home game before I see Dallas was LAFC. That was at Levi's stadium. They won that game two, one handed LAFC their first, I think only loss of the season.
00:08:06
Speaker
So, you know, they've had the ups and downs for sure. And the ups have mostly come at home and the downs have mostly come on the road.
00:08:13
Speaker
Well, let's talk about some of the things that
Key Players: Espinoza & Obobese
00:08:15
Speaker
they do. Well, you mentioned Christian Espinoza. He is his is, I guess, similar to Jordan Morris. His his stats maybe suggest are very good, but are front loaded a little bit in terms of when he's been doing that. But also Jeremy of obviously is having another solid season. Generally, aside from those two and are maybe. Speaking to those two, what do they do well and why have they been so improved under Lucha Gonzalez?
00:08:44
Speaker
Yeah, Christian Espinoza. I mean, it's taken a bit of time to get enough kind of data points on what's changed for him this season, but.
00:08:52
Speaker
The fact of the matter is Christian said it himself after the win against LAFC when he was asked in the press conference about what does he owe to scoring more goals this season. He said, I decided in the off season to score more goals and to shoot closer to the goal to be able to do that, which those of us who love expected goals know
00:09:15
Speaker
most of the expected goals are how close to the goal are you shooting it and how much in front of it are you shooting since he's a winger and not a striker right it does make him have to kind of come inside i think his left foot has been better he used to just rattle the bar multiple times a season from distance because he's got an equally strong left and right foot
00:09:39
Speaker
but it's not accurate. And so getting in closer to the goal, you can still use some of that power on occasion, but now it's less likely he's going to put it over and less likely the goalkeeper is going to be able to react to it. But even then, he looks like he's much more composed when he gets into the box, into those situations. He's always looking for cutbacks.
00:10:00
Speaker
It's a thing with him. He loves to get him behind. You know, that's a it's a natural thing for him to want to try to go to the end line and get him behind very successful doing it over the last few years. I think he's got the second most assists and MLS over the of the active player over the last four years. So it's been his bread and butter, but being able to add on the goals and how he takes all the penalties is four for four this season. You know that adds adds a good dimension to his game.
00:10:30
Speaker
He takes those with a lot of confidence, a lot of power, always in a very tough spot to be able to save even if the keeper guess is right. So yeah, I mean all that has added up to more goals and still getting some assists, not quite as many. The Quakes have not scored on a corner this year. There are three goals under expected just off of Christian Espinoza corner kicks alone.
00:10:55
Speaker
So I'm not sure whether it's more him, more them, but right now, you know, the first time the Quakes score or the next goal, I would say the Quakes get on a corner this year will be there first and they'll still be under XG. So, yeah, there's a lot going on there, some good, some bad, but, you know, through it all, Christian Espinosa is the man in the middle of it.
00:11:16
Speaker
Um, you mentioned Jeremy above the sea, you know, look Portland is still not happy about losing Jeremy above the sea at least the fans side of the equation, right and You know, he scored 17 for the quakes last year. He's got I think five so far this season Maybe he'll get to him to 15 again. Maybe he won't but um, you know a lot of that, you know is
00:11:40
Speaker
Is going to decide on based upon the service that he's getting from other areas, not just Christian Espinosa, which I would say he's not gotten quite the level of service this year so far that he got last year. All that bodes well for the quakes.
00:11:54
Speaker
For a team that is under expected expected goals and and different things like that to sit 5th in the West as of right now, you know, routine that was last last season. You know if things come together and get, you know, regressed to the mean, so to speak, the place will improve. And that's that's that's only good for for a team that's looking to make the playoffs for only the third time since the 2012 supporters show season.
Coaching Tactics: Almeida vs. Gonzalez
00:12:21
Speaker
And so is there anything in particular that they're doing better? Like, is this just a, you know, a, you know, like you said, is it, is it the, they're, they're maybe rising to their talent level that was maybe being held back under, you know, previous coaching staffs?
00:12:39
Speaker
Yeah, well, I mean, that and the tactics under Matias Almeida. I mean, I think anyone who knows me knows I am a huge unbeliever, disbeliever, doubter in Matias Almeida's tactics. And if you want to say by extension Marcello, the else's man marking, which got ripped apart at Leeds after winning the championship. I just think there's a ceiling to that type of tactic.
00:13:06
Speaker
Identity and you know, and and it also takes the best players in the league. So I made us winning the Greek League this year. Well, guess what? He's got the best players when I made a one down in Guadalajara. Guess what? He had the best players. When he doesn't have the best players in the league, he can't execute those types of tactics. So basically a lot of it is getting back to some defensive solidity, teaching the players to kind of keep their feet, know when to go zonal, when to mark up.
00:13:36
Speaker
and just kind of getting back to the basics of some of that. And, you know, if you look at the tactics under Luchi and under Greg Burhalter in terms of their defensive solidity and what the US was able to accomplish with the World Cup, that's now happening in San Jose. It's a very similar type of system.
00:13:58
Speaker
And so while the quakes are less effective at it on the road so far this season, it's definitely a lot better than the goals against Pace they were on last season. And so what team do you expect to see in this game? You mentioned a few notable absences. Is there anyone that you are kind of keying in on that might be indicative of or might be sort of like the talisman of which direction this game goes from them?
Upcoming Match: Key Players & Lineup Changes
00:14:30
Speaker
Yeah, it's it's a good question. I think you know one of the players that really need is going to need to show up big in this particular game is going to be Carlos Carrezzo. He is there. You know $3 million signing, which may not sound like much, but for the Quakes is the biggest ever.
00:14:45
Speaker
Um, you know, they paid paid that to Augsburg in order to bring him back into MLS. He's a player who played under Gucci Gonzalez for a few months of Lucci's, uh, Lucci's tenure at FC Dallas. Um, and I would say that, right, he's going to have to have the type of game, which is on his, his better end of, of games in order to be able to prevent the sounders from getting into the middle of the field. We're not sure if Jonathan Mensa is going to play.
00:15:13
Speaker
in this game or not. He apparently violated a team rule and did not play on Saturday and Lucci did not commit as to whether he is available or not for Wednesday's game, I guess probably to keep the sounders guessing.
00:15:31
Speaker
So we don't know if he's going to be back there. He's been big for the Quakes back line. And you go from a guy like Nathan, who is a freewheeler all over the pitch, tackles anyone and everything all over the place, to Jonathan Mensa, who just basically gets in your head and gets you to get yourself out and make a mistake defensively. It's a wildly different equation.
00:15:59
Speaker
Now we'll see Tanner Beeson started the other night. Nathan, for anyone who doesn't know, is out with an ACL. He will be back this season more than likely. So Tanner Beeson is next man up. He was fine, but might have been the person at fault also for the goal for not closing down the header quickly enough that was able to go in the back of the net to make the 1-1.
00:16:27
Speaker
So we'll see. If it's going to go well for the quakes, it's going to be because they find a way to be able to slow down the attack of Seattle. Yeah, the sounders also will be rotating a bit. Morris is going to be out, obviously. He had a groin injury. Dylan Tevez looks like he'll probably start in place of him. And then the other changes, it looks like New Who will come back into the lineup in place of Cody Baker, who
00:16:57
Speaker
It looks like he's carrying some sort of injury as well. And then the two midfield, it looks like the defensive midfielders were also both be different. My expectation is Josh Atencio and Soda Kitahara, who I think is going to be getting his first. I want to start. That's because Albert Rusnak missed training today, apparently got food poisoning sometime in the last couple of days. And of course, Jaupalo is carrying a yellow card or a red card suspension.
00:17:25
Speaker
And then there'll probably be some rotation at center back where the Sounders have been trying to rotate a little bit when they have three game weeks. So Javier Arriaga will probably come in for one of EMR Jackson Reagan. So that's, you know, I guess that's four or five changes from the weekend. And it'll be an interesting collection. We're all really just
00:17:49
Speaker
going to be available off the bench. Kellen Rowe made a much faster recovery than anyone seemed to think. At one point they were saying he was going to be out six to eight weeks. I think it's only been three weeks that he'll be back. And then I guess Christian rolled on and getting closer, but he's still out with concussion or going through a concussion protocol. He's missed over a month now.
Injury Challenges & Historical Performance
00:18:11
Speaker
How much is Jordan Morris' status?
00:18:12
Speaker
uh he's going to be out for at least a couple like my expectation is he to come back on June 21st LAFC game but he'll miss this game and then probably the timbers game on the weekend uh so
00:18:26
Speaker
Yeah, it's been a and then and then you want to see two rotated teams. Yeah, exactly for you. Exactly. Yeah, Morris came out of the last game around the 35th minute with a groin injury. Actually, it looks like he may have actually hurt himself while scoring. So one of those unfortunate things. But yeah, it's it's it's you know, I don't know. These midweek games in MLS are always you know, always a crapshoot to speak. Yeah, but and I'm assuming the quakes play on the weekend as well.
00:18:56
Speaker
They do, yeah. Yeah, so both Sounders and Quakes play on the weekend. That further complicates the situation of both teams. But yeah, although one of the interesting stats I saw just the other day or today was the earthquakes are tied with sporting Kansas City for the most wins at Loom and Field for a visiting team. They've won it six times, but only one of those wins has come during the Bryant-Schmetzer era. So kind of an interesting little
00:19:24
Speaker
back to where they're but um yeah this should be an always an interesting game when the when the quakes are in town it feels like yeah and we've we've experienced wildly different results in each game we've we've been able to make so far since i moved up into uh
00:19:41
Speaker
into the area and I'm looking forward to joining you at Loom and Field and seeing you in the press box again. Yeah, remember correctly, maybe that that game in Quakes won 1-0 in 2021. I think you were probably here for that one, right? I was. Yeah, that was that was when I think we were talking about all the reasons that the Quakes would lose and then somehow they pulled it out because Mathias Almeida actually abandoned the man marking. That's right. And played a straight up compressed mid block and I'm like,
00:20:08
Speaker
Jeremiah, I don't think they're man-marking out there. I can't see any man-marking going on. It was the weirdest thing. Yeah. Well, Jamin, thank you so much for joining us and giving us your insight on the earthquakes.
Post-Game Analysis Invitation
00:20:21
Speaker
If you want to find Jamin's stuff, you can find him at Quake's Epicenter. We also do a YouTube show that's immediately post-game, right? Yeah, absolutely. Big, huge, open-arm welcome to any Sounders fan who would like to join us.
00:20:35
Speaker
on the post game. You can catch us at youtube.com slash quakes epicenter. We will probably go live about 15 minutes.
00:20:45
Speaker
after the end of the game. So on your ride home, got nothing else to do, fire us up. We will carry the Earthquakes Press Conference. I always think it's interesting to hear from the other side of the fence in terms of how they felt they executed in the game. And I think it gives a good balanced perspective. And one way or the other, whether you win, whether you lose, you learn a little bit about how the game was played from a neutral perspective. So
00:21:12
Speaker
Always adds to your knowledge to know a little bit more about each team and their loss. So feel free to come join us. We're very welcoming to opposing fans. Absolutely. Well, thank you, Jamin, for doing this. Signing off on behalf of our sponsors, Football Lines, Weapons Counter, and our subset subscribers, I am Jeremiah Shannon. This is know how to get this. And we will catch you next time.
00:22:09
Speaker
We love you. Let's win another one!