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The Nouhou Game - Ep. 17
39 Plays2 years ago
Ari and Noah talk about the Seattle Sounders FC win over FC Dallas, the MLS Cup Playoffs, and St. Louis CITY.
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Transcript
Introduction & Episode Tease
00:00:10
Speaker
What's going on, everybody? Welcome in to episode 17 of Lobbing Scorchers. This is Ari Lillianwall. I got producer Noah here with me. Noah, say what's up to the people. Listen, the haters and the losers, they bookmarked the tweets. They took screenshots. But you know what?
00:00:31
Speaker
We got a final judgment on fraud watch today and much more to come. Yeah, no unfortunately upset the city of st. Louis and the st. Louis city SC fan base with the title of our of our last episode So we are going to unfortunately have to dive into how both of us are actually actually turned out to be validated through that situation We're gonna hit that later in the show but
Seattle Sounders' Playoff Win Analysis
00:00:57
Speaker
before we do that we're going to we got a we got a dub pod for you today and not only is it a dub pod but it's a playoff dub pod so it's a very it's a very special dub pod we're going to talk about the seattle sounders round one best of three series opening win over fc dallas two zero and lumen field a great game to be at it was a we were both there i was in the press box you were in the stands
00:01:26
Speaker
It was it was a fun game to be at it was the the playoff vibes were out You know like with the playoff game you can always kind of feel the energy in the building It's got that different type of energy and intensity. I would say that that was very much the case And it was an enjoyable game to watch from a Seattle person perspective for sure we're gonna talk about a
00:01:46
Speaker
all the farm points of it and then we're gonna we're gonna talk about a lot of the rest of all the rest of the results from around the league in these round one series that are going on I'm gonna do I'm gonna make my official declaration on my take on the on the format we talked about that on the last episode a little bit and I kind of gave like a preemptive take now that I've seen how game one went and you know I've done the vibe check I think I have an amended take on
00:02:16
Speaker
on how I'm thinking of it, so we'll get into that. But first, let's talk about this playoff dub. Noah, you down? I'm beyond down. This team... That was sharp. They look hot. That was sharp. It really... That's how you started off. That's how you started off. We were wondering if their improved form from the stretch run of the regular season was going to translate into the playoffs.
00:02:43
Speaker
especially with it seems like they found consistency with this lineup now Brian Schmetzer even said that after the game he said you know I'm riding the hot hand this is a lineup that's been playing well they've been scoring some goals so I decided to stay with it I think we all thought that that was the right decision you know there there is a way of thinking of it where in a big game like this maybe you go back to to a lineup that had that's more filled with the players that have
00:03:10
Speaker
come through for you in big games in the past. So maybe you do start a Nico Ledero or Raul Rui Diaz in this situation, given their pedigree and their track record of coming through in these situations. Schmetz didn't do that. And I think it's pretty obvious that it paid off. And, you know, we were talking about it on the last episode too, but I mean, Nico Ledero off the bench is a super sub.
00:03:35
Speaker
Also, I mean that's really like and he looked I honestly thought he looked like as good as he did pretty much all season Yeah, he looked like vintage Nico in that shift picks up the secondary assist on the second goal But yeah that it's just good stuff from the opening opening whistle. I thought Seattle was sharp in attack
00:03:54
Speaker
really throughout the first half. The only blemishes on the first half were two chances that FC Dallas had through Jesus Ferreira. Stephen Fry makes a really good save on the first one. He had a clean breakaway on that one. That should have been a goal, but Steph Fry did what Steph Fry does. Goalkeeper of the Schmetz actually, he went on a soapbox about that after the game. I did see that. That was pretty good. He was stumping for him.
00:04:24
Speaker
It's crazy that he's never gotten one like when you think about the trophy case that he's accumulated Yeah, I think realistically probably this wasn't his year, but in the past he's definitely been snubbed
00:04:36
Speaker
Yeah, it could have been like a lifetime achievement award this year. Yeah, yeah. Even though he... Steph Fry, this is kind of a tangent. Correct. Any inclination that anyone might have said that he's washed, like I didn't see that this year. I thought the goalkeeping was really good this year between him and Steph Cleveland.
00:04:57
Speaker
Anyway, aside from those two blemishes where you had the kind of defensive lapses where Jesus Ferreira gets two clean looks on goal, Steph Fry makes a great save on one of them, they get a little lucky that he skied the second one over the crossbar.
00:05:13
Speaker
But other than that, Seattle was firing throughout the first half and they get rewarded for their goal right on the stroke at halftime.
Controversial Penalty Decision and Analysis
00:05:22
Speaker
Christian rolled on, wins the penalty. He got Marco Farfan on that one. Christian's so good at that. We saw him do that in Champions League last year. You've seen him do it a bunch of times actually and it's kind of always on that.
00:05:39
Speaker
Exact type of play where he's bodying off a defender and getting around him and the defender goes in for the challenge And as soon as he feels that contact, you know, he knows he knows how to fall So so it looks like a penalty, you know, I mean it is a foul and it is a foul it is a foul book and
00:06:01
Speaker
But you know who didn't think it was a foul every FC Dallas fan well specifically FC Dallas head coach Nico Estebas who had a really good, you know, we always like to To bring it to light when you get a blazing hot coach press conference here on mobbing scorchers Nico Estebas had a great one He was popping off about that penalty kick call. He he was saying okay. I don't really exactly remember
00:06:28
Speaker
Exactly what he said, but I know it was something to the effect of like there's specifically been some rule change Where this exact type of play is actually not supposed to be awarded a penalty And then they didn't adhere to this like changed rule, which I don't know what he's talking about I didn't know they changed the rules, but uh
00:06:49
Speaker
He was he was saying he was saying that uh, it should have it shouldn't have been a penalty kick based on this amended rule and then he was also Red hot that I guess he was saying alex rolled on Took the throw-in from like 10 yards ahead of where it was supposed to be taken. I don't really remember the sequence um To know like if the throw-in was taken accurately but yeah
00:07:14
Speaker
one thing that uh you know we've talked about it on this show a lot of times this season but i mean that's just a situation where if you're mark of our fan like you have to know as soon as you go into that challenge like you are
00:07:30
Speaker
You're in a 50-50 proposition at that point. And there's a 50% chance that you're going to get called for the PK on that. It's hard to do because if you let Christian get around you there, he's got a lot of space to get across in. You might concede a goal. So it's a tough decision to make as a defender there. But he made the decision to make the challenge. And that's usually going to be
00:07:59
Speaker
Called a penalty. That's just how it goes. Yeah, especially especially in Seattle. I mean, I don't know I That's a that's a little risky to take that especially against well done. You know gets those calls Yeah, so Albert rest next episode to the spot almost had his penalty saved Martin pass who
00:08:19
Speaker
I would say we're we're fans yeah really he's a really good he's a really good goalkeeper one of the one of the most underrated goalkeepers in the league I always try and bring him up when when people are talking about who the top goalkeepers are because every I haven't looked at it this year but I know last year I was looking at who I should vote for for goalkeeper of the year and so I was looking at everyone's stats he's near the top of the league and all of them so
00:08:46
Speaker
He made a good he made a good go at that rest snack penalty But he couldn't quite keep it out and ended up going off the post and going in and Seattle got a 1-0 lead heading into halftime Which I thought was well deserved based on how they played At least one person out there on the Twitter sphere I
Impact of Key Player Injuries and Performances
00:09:07
Speaker
didn't like how I framed it after the game. So the headline on my post game content on MLSSoccer.com was something to the effect of the Seattle Sounders rose to the occasion.
00:09:24
Speaker
Which you know I don't always write the headlines sometimes I do like I usually if I'm if I'm doing a written my own written piece like that I'll put in like an idea of what I think the headline should be And it usually gets changed in this case it got changed to that, but I think it was a pretty accurate headline Anyway someone tweeted at me and was like What did he say he was like they really rose to the occasion of
00:09:52
Speaker
By getting lucky that Jesus Ferreira missed those two sitters Yeah, so he kind of owned me on that one. I mean I mean I don't know like
00:10:05
Speaker
He shouldn't have missed the sitters then. That was my response. But like also... But his XG went crazy. And the XG on the chances weren't even going crazy. So maybe they weren't that good at chances. I don't know. I just thought that was funny. I guess the point at the end of the day is like if you want credit for those sitters, like you have to convert the goals.
00:10:33
Speaker
If he makes those then You know, I wouldn't have been able to say that they rose to the occasion. So also I wouldn't even say that solves that problem I wouldn't even say they were sitters they were they were on He was he was the first one was a clean breakaway. I don't know if that's different than a sitter Yeah, but that was the one fry saved though
00:11:03
Speaker
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00:11:29
Speaker
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00:11:58
Speaker
Right well so that's my other point is that fry like a goalkeeper making a huge save on a breakaway is rising to the occasion Yeah, I don't think that you can fall like I mean yeah like he could have placed his shot better sure in another world But also as we just talked about fry is an incredible goalkeeper who made an incredible save second one Yeah, okay, maybe maybe that's a sitter more more just he just shanked it
00:12:23
Speaker
Yeah, he I mean he put that one into road double Z. He put that up in the is that the Hawks nest up there? Yeah, that was into orbit. Yeah. F.C. Dallas attacker Alan Velasco unfortunately got injured in this game, which that made me really sad. I really sucked. Yeah, he had to come out of the game in like the 20th minute or so. And so that kind of put that puts them behind the ball in this series. I don't think he's going to play in game two.
00:12:53
Speaker
And he's really the engine behind a lot of what they do. And I just think it sucks because you never want to see anyone get injured, obviously. But I'm of the mind that I like to see teams play each other at full strength, especially in the playoffs. And Alan Velasco is going to be such a key character in this series.
00:13:17
Speaker
I think we we talked about him when we were previewing this matchup because he's such a key player for them. But he's one of the most talented young players in the league. Number one on the twenty two under twenty two rankings for a reason. Big time prospect. So that was a bummer to see. I'm legitimately bombed to not get to watch him play in game two because just take some of the intrigue out of it. So
00:13:47
Speaker
Yeah, I agree. When he went down and there were people around me like, oh, he's faking it. I'm like, I don't think he's faking it, buddy. I think it looked like it might have been a pretty serious long-term injury. It looked pretty nasty. I'm hoping it was more like a sprain or something that's a few weeks, but who knows? We'll keep an eye out for the prognosis on that.
00:14:09
Speaker
I always like watching FC Dallas for players like that. I mean they've been known to have so many fun young players that you know you're gonna see in other leagues or well other leagues because they always sell everyone but other than that like they're fun to watch playoff soccer should be about you know two full-strength teams going at it let's find the best you know the best team but
00:14:31
Speaker
so that yeah, it made me sad to see him go down and yeah, you know at all those guys, he might have the highest like theoretical upside out of any of them. Yeah, this was the new who game told in my opinion. Yeah, this was the new who game.
00:14:47
Speaker
Brian Schmetzer I said it after the game. I said it to Jeremiah Sean from sounder at heart in the press box during the game But I mean, that's the best game I've ever seen new play. Yeah, that was he was bawling He saw he saw RBW. He saw RBW say hey, I'm good, buddy I'm gonna come for your job and new who said uh-uh. Yeah, nah so new who you know, he's a fan favorite and I
00:15:15
Speaker
Most sounders fans love new but There is a segment of sounders fans who it's kind of become like the trendy thing to hate on new who It's like, you know Most people love new but I'm like a soccer intellectual and so I actually hate new because he's kind of a black hole in attack and his antics are sometimes ill-timed and unnecessary and
00:15:43
Speaker
And you know, I understand like why it can be grating to watch sometimes when he's doing the thing where he makes like a bounding run all the way up the field, ignores like four dudes that he could have laid the ball off to launches across like nowhere near anybody. And then he runs back to the other end of the field and then just does a completely unnecessary bicycle kick.
00:16:08
Speaker
And he's jumping around and pointing stuff. And then maybe he'll miss his mark on it. These are all things that happen with Nuhu, but I think in getting caught up in
00:16:27
Speaker
doing these anti-new who takes sometimes for that. You lose sight of the things, the value that he brings to the table. And that is an elite one-on-one defender. He's a wild card. He's a wild card. He's definitely a wild card. And that's why some people like him. That's why some people don't like him. But you saw what the value is in this game and why he's pretty much a locked-on starter when he's healthy.
00:16:54
Speaker
because I mean his work on defense in this game was pretty incredible like if you think about the amount of just ground on his side of the field that he can completely nullify
00:17:11
Speaker
Yider Obreon is a very good attacking player. And he's got a lot of pace. He's dynamic on the ball. He's not easy to completely neutralize like that. He had nothing on new. He had nothing on new the entire game.
00:17:31
Speaker
so like his work on d was lights out and that's basically what we've come to expect from new you know you have the individual error here and there but like that's typically what he brings to the table but in this game i think what you saw was like a very surprising aptitude for timing his runs forward um like picking his spots
00:17:59
Speaker
just super super well and then also like pinpoint delivery on his crosses that I Didn't even really like know he had in his bag He it wasn't even just the assist on the j-mo goal Which we'll talk about like he had another cross in this game to that was like right on the money I'm gonna play devil's advocate though. He did go two for six on accurate long balls. So that's like 33% on crossing and
00:18:27
Speaker
I mean like yeah, he had those two really great passes One obviously that was just like the perfect ball ever and an incredible assist But he was still showing new like signs. I mean I'm not I'm not a hater, but I also you're really you're really gonna you're really gonna dog him for Two for six on long balls that when he had that that assist
00:18:50
Speaker
I'm not gonna dog him. I just know that like long-term sample size. We know that this is not been a sustainable consistent thing that said period this game was disgusting new who showed that he should probably be starting over RBW right now, which like do I want that personally not really but
00:19:11
Speaker
I mean I can't I can't blame the guy clearly won his spot like I think the RBW should start over him take sounded fire after RBW had had his goal that was ruled a known goal but should have been his goal and RBW is starting to break out a little bit but like
00:19:35
Speaker
There's such a gulf in how much you can rely on them defensively, I think, especially in a playoff game. I don't know. That game kind of illustrated it to me.
00:19:52
Speaker
I think that's when new who when new who's inform and bringing it on defense like that he brings he brings a lot of value to the team still even despite some of the shortcomings he might have which I mean I agree with what you were saying in the sense like I don't necessarily think seeing him get that get that assist
00:20:10
Speaker
Means he's all of the sudden, you know, Jovan Jones back there just launching in dime after dime after dime if he if if it is a sign that he has that in his bag like well, we might start the the train of like him getting sold to a big six club again or something like if yet if he ever could have added that to his bag like that's kind of what's held him
Seattle Sounders' Strategy and Playoff Format Critique
00:20:32
Speaker
back and
00:20:32
Speaker
from I think like achieving that that like transfer buzz that he used to have and that people thought he should have is he never really fine-tuned that part of his game but I mean it looked great in this game he so I guess we'll talk about Jordan Morris his goal
00:20:49
Speaker
Because it came it this game was 1-0 until I think it was like it was the 70 something minute that That they got that second goal because it was after Niko Ledero came on because Niko Ledero picks up the secondary assist It was actually a really just a really great team goal great sequence the Sounders posted a video of it showing every pass it was 12 passes and
00:21:14
Speaker
Ledero puts like a little three ball down the left side to new who and you know, I mean new did so well to get that Cross off because yeah, he had the guy bearing right down on him. He was right on top of him It was a nasty it was it was a nasty cross
00:21:32
Speaker
uh right into jamo pretty unstoppable because uh like with how accurate that delivery was like all jamo had to do he had to jump but you know he can jump out of the building so uh it was just a really well worked team goal and that made it 2-0 and as soon as as soon as it became 2-0 um
00:21:53
Speaker
In round this the 73rd 74th minute it felt like it was pretty done and dusted Schmetz called it a professional win after the game and I agree I think you know when you think about a professional win It's like you take your two zeros you to zero lead kill off the game Don't let anything crazy happen. They managed to do that And that's a wrap. That's a 1-0 lead in this round one and
00:22:18
Speaker
best of three series and they'll take that into game two in frisco texas the thriving metropolis on saturday where they can close off the series so we can talk about that before we do that i guess do you want should i dish my format take all right
00:22:37
Speaker
Yeah, go for it. All right, so when we were talking about the format the best of three series that They're doing for these first round On the on the last episode You know I was kind of a lot of people hated it off rip I didn't I didn't really feel that way because kind of what I was saying was like
00:22:57
Speaker
For the first round, I really don't mind a multi-game series. That might not be a popular take. I think a lot of people enjoyed the excitement of the single elimination throughout the whole thing. And I can understand that. But when I think about it, in principle, I don't necessarily mind a multi-game series and then going to single elimination. But here's my take.
00:23:26
Speaker
If you're gonna do the multi-game series for round one, it should be the way that they used to have it where it was the home and away aggregate scoring two games.
00:23:39
Speaker
That's a good way to do a multi-game series, in my opinion. There are aspects of that that I enjoyed. Maybe not more than the excitement of a single elimination game, but in a different way than a single elimination game. The first thing I don't like about this best of three thing is I don't like that there's no aggregate scoring because
00:24:03
Speaker
You aren't rewarded or penalized at all for a lopsided result or scoring more goals or getting punished for conceding more goals. Sporting Kansas City going into St. Louis City and scoring four goals on the road and taking a four one win. That shouldn't be rewarded in the exact same way as a home team winning one zero.
00:24:29
Speaker
It's one nothing and on top of that like I think st. Louis deserves to be in an aggregate hole for losing their their home match Exactly so There's and there's also there's also fun stuff that goes on with the strategy of how you play the games when it's aggregate scoring you know you have to play the second game differently based on what the goal total is in the first game and then it totally
00:24:56
Speaker
It changes the vibe of the game based on what the score of the first game was. So I just think all that stuff is more compelling and a better way to do it.
00:25:13
Speaker
than this three game series, which is super Americanized and there's, yeah, there's no aggregate scoring. There's a third game that feels unnecessary. So, I mean, I don't know what you think of the take that if they're gonna do it multiple games, it should just be the two game home and away aggregate.
00:25:38
Speaker
that's how i see it i'm also i would also be down like for how they had it with single elimination throughout but me personally i i really don't mind the idea of having a multi-game series like to start it off i just would not i wouldn't like having seen how this is starting out i would not do this like best of three how they got it
00:25:57
Speaker
Yeah, no, I think that I don't mind a multi-series, you know, first round or second, you know, however you want to do it. Like we watch Champions League. We love Champions League. It's fun. But yeah, there's it's a bad product. It's created a bad product. It's created what basically Dallas was doing.
00:26:16
Speaker
in the first half of the game before the Sounders scored which was let's sit on every ball that we can let's bleed the clock as much as we can we're gonna pray to God that we can you know get out with a draw if we can win we can win awesome but it's just so boring there's no incentive to score more than well is that different though like trolling for draws when you're the road team in the playoffs is not necessarily a novel strategy to this that's been going on forever
00:26:45
Speaker
Yeah, but I don't think that it's also like...
00:26:48
Speaker
It might incentivize it more. Yeah, I just think it incentivizes it more because I don't think that in the like in the past when you have an aggregate, it's like, you know, it's it doesn't matter. Like there's no the score line doesn't matter. All it matters is you either win the game or you don't. So if you can get to penalties because there's no, you know, it just goes straight to penalties after full time, like,
00:27:18
Speaker
You just kind of say that's a coin toss every time yeah, you never know we're gonna have to see How it pans out because I mean there could be weird situations here like so for instance with this Sporting Kansas City st. Louis series like
00:27:36
Speaker
They could have a situation where Sporting Kansas City goes into City Park and wins 4-1 and then St. Louis City trolls a couple 0-0s and then wins both of those games on PKs. If that kind of stuff happens
00:27:51
Speaker
The discourse is going to be hot. I'll tell you that but anyway, I don't want to make it a format episode But that's that's I just wanted to get out my official format take on the record There's been a lot of format takes flying around everyone's got one
00:28:06
Speaker
That's mine. I don't mind a multi-game series. I think there's There's pros and cons to it, but there are pros and I really maybe I have sentimental attachment to it because You know when I first started rolling with the sounders it was those playoff series where it was it was it was home and away aggregate and I just have some good memories with those series and like I had fun with them so I
00:28:30
Speaker
I think that the nice thing about home and away aggregate to on the business side of things both teams get a playoff game and That's like if you want to watch your team in the playoffs You get you get a chance and I am I mean they both get them in in this best of three format. I just Yeah, I'm just saying to be like a two-leg series versus just a one and done gotcha. It's nice to have that but I
00:28:55
Speaker
Okay. Well, looking ahead to game two and Frisco on Saturday, thriving metropolis of Frisco, Texas, where I've actually never been. That's a road trips that I've never done. Um, Seattle can end the series with a win in regulation or in penalties. Uh, and so I guess we should probably talk about what the chances we feel are that they actually do that. My initial thought on it is that like,
00:29:21
Speaker
You know, typically when I think about a road trip to FC Dallas, I think about a game where you're essentially just praying for a draw. It's a really, really hard place to play. Seattle historically doesn't do very well on road trips to Frisco. I don't know exactly what their all time record is when they go there, but I know it isn't good.
00:29:47
Speaker
My thought on why a result might be more attainable in this game than a road trip to FC Dallas typically might be is pretty much actually just the fact that we're talking about the month of November. Most times that they're playing these games, you know, it's the it's the.
00:30:07
Speaker
It's the meat of summer, you know, and it's that oppressive heat it gets to be like ninety five hundred degrees And those elements are just really hard to play and that's why Seattle Part of why Seattle always struggles when they go play Houston, too It's just hard to play in that Texas Texas heat
00:30:28
Speaker
I think with some more forgiving elements and a little bit lower of a temperature ostensibly than they might normally have. I think that levels the playing field quite a bit and it takes it into a situation where whatever talent advantage that you have, which I think Seattle does have the talent advantage in this matchup.
00:30:49
Speaker
It makes it matter more because that advantage isn't nullified by the elements, which it usually is. It's kind of refreshing to think of it in that way because, like I said, every time Seattle is going to Dallas,
00:31:06
Speaker
Kind of just chalk it as far as like well. It's just a 50-50 proposition any sort of positive result at best because Even if the lineup that Seattle puts out there is way better. It's gonna be so goddamn hot That like they're gonna get really tired by like the 28th minute and they're probably gonna yield a lot of possession and
00:31:32
Speaker
get run on a lot so I think that might be less of a factor here and so I think Seattle can actually win this game I don't know if they will because another thing that they're gonna have to deal with is FC Dallas is playing at home with their season absolutely on the line and that means they're playing a desperate opponent
00:31:52
Speaker
When you have a desperate opponent playing at home, they're going to try and be on top of you from the start of the game. It's just inevitable that you're going to have to deal with pretty lengthy spells of the game where they're going to be on top of you.
00:32:07
Speaker
You gotta be able to absorb that pressure and your back line just has to be up for it. You can't be making sloppy errors on defense or switching off or even a second because they're gonna be playing with their hair on fire.
00:32:24
Speaker
So this game to me really just comes down to how well Seattle can manage and Match the intensity that they're gonna be bringing because you know, they're gonna be bringing it They have to they have to win this game. There's no it's not gonna be like game one where they can kind of play coy with it and Try and try and you know strategize it they they got to be going all out but
00:32:52
Speaker
One thing about a desperate opponent like that is they can leave themselves vulnerable. So in addition to matching that intensity, when you have those moments, when they're throwing numbers forward, gotta be ready to capitalize.
Playoff Results Recap and League Dynamics
00:33:07
Speaker
So it's really gonna be a good test of Seattle's recently improved attack to see if they can pick their spots when those moments come up and can they execute and
00:33:20
Speaker
Can they can they get this dub in regulation or at least get it to pikas? You know I think if you got this to pikas You wouldn't be happy with it, but you would take that you know yeah told me before the game that they were gonna get a drawn regulation and get it to pikas I'd probably take that I don't want to face pause personally, but I
00:33:41
Speaker
No, I definitely don't. But if it has to be done, it has to be done. But anyway, that's just kind of how I see this matchup. FC Dallas, they're going to be...
00:33:55
Speaker
They're gonna be running around like maniacs out there like get ready. I'm just yeah, I'm not I am not Confident not because I don't think this team isn't miles better than FC Dallas but just simply because I'm thinking back to the inner Miami game that they played in Dallas which inner Miami came back what they were like four goals down in the league's cup and
00:34:19
Speaker
and ended up winning that game, but also it was messy in the bar, so that was messy in the bar, so boys.
00:34:27
Speaker
I'm saying is I've seen what that team can do With their backs to the wall with you know their season riding on it or a big cup riding on it and it scares me a little bit and it definitely scares me to have to face Martin poss as a penalty kick shootout Potential but yeah that said
00:34:49
Speaker
Even if they they they drop this game. I am more than confident that game three in Seattle is a bamming and You know on to the next one I guess yeah, they're certainly in the driver's seat. That's where you want to be We'll see if they can get it done in game two in Frisco, but if not there'll be a game three back here at Lumen field so
00:35:14
Speaker
Looking forward to the match. It'll be a good one. Let's dive into the other playoff matches, Noah, because there is a lot of round one action going on in the league. So we can just give some of our takes on that in both conferences. The Philadelphia Union handled the New England Revolution pretty easily. 3-1 at Subaru Park.
00:35:35
Speaker
I watched that one Philly pretty much just mobbed here. Yeah there wasn't I was I was kind of surprised by that because I remember we were taught we were talking about it when we were previewing these games and you know they have the exact same record during the regular season but you know I was picking Philly right because
00:35:54
Speaker
The revs have kind of been roiled in Chaos scandal and turmoil for a lot of the season the vibes didn't seem right and I think that kind of I kind of got born out in this game Daniel God's dog hit a PK in the 19th minute and me called Miguel where He got one right after that like six seven minutes later and Nathaniel Harrell had a header like ten minutes after that so it was just like a first half onslaught and
00:36:23
Speaker
Gustavo bow got one for New England in the second half, but I mean that game was all Philly and I was I was doing the Philly content after that game actually so I was on Jim Curtin a little zoom call and he He made a fair point which
00:36:38
Speaker
is that, you know, he said people probably shouldn't forget about us, you know, we're, we're still, we're still one of the big boys in the league. I know we had a little bit of a down year as far as like point total, but we're still the Philly Union. So message received in that game, they played really well.
00:36:58
Speaker
LAFC mobbed on the Vancouver Whitecaps five to two. I watched that game as well. And you know, I was standing for the Whitecaps. I was really hoping that they would do it. I think we all were, God, it would have been, it would have been too much to ask for LAFC to just get eliminated by the Whitecaps in the first round. That would have been great, but it does not really look like it is. It doesn't look like it's going to happen.
00:37:24
Speaker
I will say, I made the case in the preview show, I picked LFC, but I was making the case for why Vancouver might have more of a chance than people think.
00:37:40
Speaker
I do think that was born out a little bit in this game, too. The Whitecaps hung with it. They went down one zero and two one, and they equalize both times. This game was two, two, and then the wheels kind of came off and LFC just started mobbing. Denny Spawanga scored a couple of goals and it all fell apart. My over. Are you saying over Luccio? Yeah. OK, that's fair.
00:38:07
Speaker
Lucho is also a banger, but anyway I was just so deflated when because when they when when the white caps tied at two two I was like all right like this series is on like lasc is probably still going to win, but vancouver is going to make it painful on them and they're going to have to work for it and it's not going to be just a massive blow out and then that's exactly what it turned into so
00:38:34
Speaker
But you know what's great about this format, Ari? That shit doesn't matter because it's one nothing. Yeah, I mean, so that is a fair point. But I think it does matter in the sense that there is quite a gap here between these two teams that I think became quite clear as the match went on. Yeah, I mean, I've seen man like when they get when they get rolling like that.
00:38:58
Speaker
They're pretty tough to stop it to Seattle would get next if they advance and I think I like I like Seattle's defense to Put up a much better fight than Vancouver seems to be putting up so far but Wanga and company man like when they get going it's like it's like a runaway freight train like you know you don't really you can only hope to slow it down a little bit which you can't really stop it and
00:39:27
Speaker
For the Sounders, I feel like the best option for them is that to go to three games and they get one one game rest on them. Yeah. And, you know, I only have see. Like, I'll never fully fear them again, frankly, after 2019, because there's no there's no team that I've ever feared more than that 2019 team to the point where I went down to L.A. for the
00:39:54
Speaker
for the West for the West final. And I was like on the flight down and my whole time I was in LA, I was fully like expecting Seattle to lose. You can ask anyone actually who I might have been texting about the game beforehand.
00:40:10
Speaker
I was like I'm just down here to watch LAFC probably probably mob here. I mean it's just cuz they were so good that year They had like a plus 48 cart that was peak Vela when he had 34 goals 15 assists When they had one of my other one of my favorite MLS players to watch out of West That team was nasty and then Watching Seattle just totally bam on them on their home field and
00:40:39
Speaker
That's still to this day the most legendary Sounders game I've ever been to I said some absolutely Phenomenal tweets that night that will forever live in lore in my opinion But so now I don't want to not trying to like downplay the threat that is LA FC I'm just saying like I
00:41:03
Speaker
They have shown that they love choking in the playoffs and big games before and specifically to Seattle. So if that is the series, then you know, so be it.
00:41:16
Speaker
I'll be happy to play them, happy to play them. Houston Dynamo beat Reall Salt Lake, 2-1. I don't really have that many takes on this game other than that. I frankly would have thought Houston would have had a little bit of an easier time than that. I mean, you know, not to take away from the fact that they got the dub. Playoff dub is a playoff dub. Hector Herrera scored a goal.
00:41:42
Speaker
They're definitely in the mix for a team in the West that could make around MLS Cup But I just think this we all saw Lake team since Since Pablo Ruiz went down. They just have not they barely looked like a playoff team like yeah, they're formed down the stretch which is actually unfortunate because Remember I had the I had the phase where I was kind of all in on them because I really liked the chicho signing I do believe I clowned you on that one too on the pod
00:42:10
Speaker
Yeah, well, okay. The thing I'll say is that if Pablo Ruiz hadn't gotten hurt, the take, it could have hit. Because I was actually claiming validation on the take because they were starting to play really, really well. Chicha was banging in some goals. And Diego Luna, that was the other player that I was citing as kind of my reason for optimism around them.
00:42:36
Speaker
I wouldn't say he full-on broke out, but he had a good year. He had like eight or nine goal contributions He looks like he's gonna be a really good MLS player He just he might not have been ready to carry as much of the load as he ended up needing to for them especially as after Pablo Ruiz went down, but honestly my whole lesson from Watching we all saw Lake this year is that apparently Pablo Ruiz is one of the best players in the league because
00:43:04
Speaker
going down was the difference between them looking like upper tier Western Conference side and looking just not good at all like a 1.0 points per game type of squad they still got into the playoffs but Houston Houston handled them in game one so
00:43:21
Speaker
Think the dynamo ultimately win that series pretty easily FC Cincinnati Destroyed the New York Red Bulls 3-0. I don't think either of us are very surprised to hear that no FC Cincinnati's Probably the MLS Cup favorite.
St. Louis City SC's Performance Under Fraud Watch
00:43:39
Speaker
Yeah you know if you grant LA FC as the favorites out of the West and FC Cincinnati the favorites out of the East and
00:43:49
Speaker
Like I like FC Cincinnati easy in that matchup FC FC Cincinnati's wait Why would you give the third seed in the west the cup favorite from the? Well, I'm just thinking of it. I think how are you disrespecting? I'm trying to think of it from like the national pundits got it got it. Yeah, if you want to say that like I don't get
00:44:13
Speaker
I don't think after, I mean, we're about to talk about this game, but I don't think anyone's considering St. Louis City SC the favorite to come out of the West right now. And frankly, I think Seattle has a great chance to come out of the West, but I would not consider them the favorite, would you?
00:44:31
Speaker
No, I wouldn't. So that's kind of what I'm saying. I feel like from the perspective of the average pundit, which is kind of what I'm talking about, they they would pick LFC. So either way, like I guess the point kind of stands like I would probably pick FC since I would pick FC Cincinnati over anyone in the West right now in one game. They're the favorites. So they're their first playoff game against the Red Bulls who
00:44:58
Speaker
We're obviously a borderline fringe playoffs squad side and kind of confirm that I'm excited to talk about this last one because there's a lot of subplots that actually went along with this one How many people do you think listened through this entire podcast just to get to this section?
00:45:14
Speaker
Lot of people in the city of st. Louis. I think I I don't know we should look at the numbers of how many people Listen to the last episode because I think we might have got we might have some new friends St. Louis city FC have Validated their status as a club on fraud wash with a 4-1 loss at home to sporting Kansas City in their game one round of
00:45:39
Speaker
round one best of three series opener and St. Louis City SC
00:45:50
Speaker
They were not happy with you, Noah. They were not happy with you. They were very vocal about how they didn't appreciate being dubbed as a club on fraud watch on our last episode. They didn't appreciate the AI graphic of the Golden Arches. Were they on fire in the graphic? Yeah, it was. Being burnt down by RBW.
00:46:14
Speaker
type that into like yeah there's like a bing there's like a bing AI chat gpts image creator okay gotcha it's a little fucked like the number on the back of the jersey isn't right but like yeah i noticed that too no i mean it you know it was uh it was an inflammatory image in more ways than one uh and the title of the episode was uh st louis city sc on fraud watch which is indeed uh something that we talked about
00:46:42
Speaker
the episode and you know their fans didn't appreciate that and so I wonder if they did listen to the episode because you know as kind of inflammatory as the title might have been I think if they listened to what I was saying they would understand that there's actual analysis behind why they're on fraud watch first of all
00:47:05
Speaker
This is the first thing I'll say though. Fraud watch is just, it's fraud watch. I'm not outwardly calling you a fraud yet. You're on watch for it. The reasoning I gave for why St. Louis City SCC was on fraud watch was just because, I mean, their underlying numbers
00:47:26
Speaker
Show it man. They show it they Overperformed their expected goals by 20 goals this year, which is one of the biggest I think it's the biggest number I've ever seen and on top of that they also They also underperformed like how many like the expected goals like conceded by like seven goals So it's it's literally like a spread of like 26 or 27 goals, which is staggering and the thing is like
00:47:57
Speaker
There is a lot of historical precedent for trends like that being evidence of fraudulence and like not carrying over year over year over year. Look at Austin FC. Like I brought this up a lot of times, but they had these exact same types of splits in 2022 and everyone was talking about how they were the greatest team ever. And they saw it soccer.
00:48:26
Speaker
What happened to them in the playoffs they got exposed they went to LA FC for the Western Conference Final and they got rolled over and not only got rolled up in small They got smoked and not only did they get rolled in the playoffs? But it literally transferred over to this season and they missed the playoffs this season and they were Near the bottom of the West for most of the year and their whole fan base wants their coach fired So like that's that's kind of
00:48:55
Speaker
All I was saying is when I see numbers like that, my fraud alarm is going off. I'm sorry. I would say it about any team that was putting up a number like that. St. Louis was putting up numbers like that all year. It ain't even to take away from them. If you're able to defy the metrics like that and get first place in the conference, that's credit to you.
00:49:19
Speaker
I'm saying is that come playoff time when you're playing the elite teams in the league? That stuff gets exposed like we've seen it time and again We saw with Austin FC last year, and I just thought it was funny how like The point got fully validated immediately immediately like the first game like I was already for them to Probably maybe beat sporting Kansas City in this series and then have those fans that were mad at us for the title Come back and be like
00:49:49
Speaker
Oh, who are you calling a fraud now? And I still would have been like, probably you guys because the shittiest seed in the conference. Yeah. And well, and it's like, it's more about like the deeper you get into the playoffs, the more likelihood there is that something like that is going to, is going to come back and run out and it's going to get exposed.
00:50:09
Speaker
but there is no break here. They went out on their home field in their first playoff game in club history and got smoked by your rivals, the club of professional wrestling enthusiasts.
00:50:25
Speaker
sporting Kansas City really and you know it's a it's a higher quality lower seed than you'll usually see because for in Kansas City they dug themselves a huge hole early and then have been performing at a very good level you know about the
00:50:43
Speaker
best level as much as As much as I might clown on them for being professional wrestling enthusiasts, which they are they've played good soccer for a long time now since May they've been one of the better teams in the West so
00:50:58
Speaker
It doesn't really mean I don't know we talked about it on the on the previous show I was I was picking sporting Kansas City like we both said and they immediately beat him for one so I guess the lesson here is that like when I say your team's on fraud watch I
00:51:21
Speaker
like there's a reasoning behind it and you can get mad about it if you want but like these things will probably even out and you'll get exposed in all likelihood
00:51:38
Speaker
What you people should be mad about is if Ari says that he's he has upside on your team because look what happens when he says oh we got upside on your team. It's true I kind of tanked we also lick with that so and then you've been two for two with fraud watch on LAFC and you know the post the post the post CCL final laws and no I mean kind of going through our takes you know I feel like we actually
00:52:03
Speaker
we actually hit him pretty good like you know I I had Philly over New England you know even I mean I guess that's not like a crazy crazy out there take but they were even during the regular season so that series could have gone either way.
00:52:20
Speaker
I guess none of these are that hard to pick the only one that was hard to pick was this st. Louis sporting KC one and We at least nailed the first game. We'll see maybe hey, maybe st. Louis City Still wins this series and you know if that happens like feel free to to come at us But
00:52:44
Speaker
I still think you're probably going to find that at some point in the playoffs the luck's going to run out. So anyway, I think that's about all we got for this episode. Unless you had anything else you wanted to hit Noah.
00:53:02
Speaker
no just I know it feels bad right now to be on fraud watch but at least you have not been fraudulent Lee claim I love the city of st. Louis I've never I don't I've never been there I know I'm a Kansas City guy so all right you know
00:53:18
Speaker
I got nothing against the city of St. Louis but the squad might be fraudulent they looked real fraudulent in game one so prove me wrong pretty wrong well they did prove that they can you know break MLS so maybe they can break the playoff format
00:53:37
Speaker
Yeah, we're gonna have to find out. All right. Well, we're gonna call it a wrap right there for episode 17 of loving scorchers As always, thank you everybody for tuning in go ahead and download like rate subscribe review on Apple music iTunes, whatever all those platforms We'll see you next time appreciate you all until then we out