Transcript
Speaker: Hello and welcome to the Behind the Box Score podcast, episode 12 here today.
Speaker: My name is Mac Maury.
Speaker: I am your host.
Speaker: I will be joined by no one today.
Speaker: I'm on my lonesome.
Speaker: I'm going to be doing a solo pod yet again, which is okay because I'm fired up.
Speaker: After some Monday night football madness, the Buffalo Bills in a loss to the Denver Broncos, 22 to 24.
Speaker: This is a Broncos team that's now won three games in a row.
Speaker: And their defense has looked fantastic for the last month.
Speaker: And if you've been listening to this podcast since the beginning, I have been trashing the Broncos team from the start of the season, calling the donkeys.
Speaker: What are they doing with Russell Wilson in this contract?
Speaker: Sean Payton.
Speaker: And now they're starting to look like the team that I thought they could look before the season.
Speaker: We're going to get into that because that's not the lead here.
Speaker: The lead is the Buffalo Bills, and it's not even that they're 5-5.
Speaker: It's not that they're on the ropes to make the playoffs.
Speaker: It's not that Josh Allen has thrown some interceptions, although we're going to talk about Josh Allen a lot here today.
Speaker: The lead is Ken Dorsey gets fired, which is tangential to Josh Allen.
Speaker: He's the offensive coordinator.
Speaker: He got fired after the game, and it's not really because the offense was bad.
Speaker: That's not why they lost the game.
Speaker: And we're going to get into that.
Speaker: So let's set the scene here.
Speaker: 21 to 22.
Speaker: The Broncos, fourth quarter.
Speaker: They're driving.
Speaker: They need, obviously, a field goal to gain the lead here near the end of the game.
Speaker: It's a second and five near midfield.
Speaker: And Sean McDermott, defensive-minded head coach, goes for a cover zero all-out blitz.
Speaker: Okay?
Speaker: High risk.
Speaker: Really, you know, it is a risk.
Speaker: It's not necessarily high risk, but it's a risk-reward type thing.
Speaker: Second and five, it makes sense.
Speaker: It's a good call.
Speaker: And you're playing a sack...
Speaker: vulnerable quarterback in Russell Wilson.
Speaker: And they get the sack.
Speaker: It's now third and 10.
Speaker: And what do they do on third and 10?
Speaker: This would be a long field goal.
Speaker: Just keep them from getting the first down and make them take a mid fifties yard field goal with kicker Will Lutz, who is past the peak of his powers.
Speaker: And instead, what is Sean McDermott again, a defensive minded head coach, a defense of a past defensive coordinator.
Speaker: That's why he attains this job with the Buffalo Bills franchise.
Speaker: What's he do?
Speaker: He does another all out blitz.
Speaker: And how does that end up?
Speaker: In a defensive pass interference that moves the ball.
Speaker: It was a terrible throw from Russell Wilson, but that's the way it goes.
Speaker: It was a DPI.
Speaker: They move the ball down.
Speaker: They get into field goal range.
Speaker: And you think, oh, well, that's got to be it, right?
Speaker: I mean, that was a bad coaching decision.
Speaker: That's it.
Speaker: Well, no, it doesn't stop there.
Speaker: So the Broncos are doing this fire drill, field goal kicking thing.
Speaker: They did it earlier in the game.
Speaker: They succeeded near the end of the first half.
Speaker: They're doing it here again.
Speaker: Most teams would spike with around 15, 20 seconds left.
Speaker: They take a knee and they go down.
Speaker: They've got 10 to 15 seconds to run the offense out, run the kicking field goal unit on.
Speaker: They do so successfully.
Speaker: Will Lutz kicks the field goal and it is just inches off.
Speaker: And you think, wow, the Bills escaped.
Speaker: A tragic choke, a loss against a not good Denver Broncos team.
Speaker: And nope, there was 12 men on the field.
Speaker: You know, I hate when my offensive coordinator messes up my special teams unit and puts 12 men on the field.
Speaker: Gosh dang it, Ken Dorsey.
Speaker: Oh wait, that would actually be the head coach and the special teams coordinator's fault.
Speaker: They move up five yards.
Speaker: They kick the field goal again.
Speaker: Will Lutz is true.
Speaker: The Broncos get a huge win, their third win in a row.
Speaker: And, yeah, Ken Dorsey gets fired because of a DPI and a 12-man on a field and one terrible blitz call from Sean McDermott.
Speaker: Seems like a lot to do with the offense.
Speaker: And you may be listening and go, well, 22 points, it's not a lot, Mac.
Speaker: It's not like the Bills' offense has been world beaters this year.
Speaker: I mean, remember them back in the day?
Speaker: They were awesome.
Speaker: Well, let's look at some metrics here, okay?
Speaker: Let's just get off because, in my opinion, this is a total panic move.
Speaker: Now, both the offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator have been fired from the team in the last nine months.
Speaker: Less than a calendar year, both OC and DC have been fired.
Speaker: The bills are spiraling.
Speaker: And let me tell you why.
Speaker: So the whole thing with Josh Allen right now is interceptions.
Speaker: He's led the league in interceptions since 2018.
Speaker: And now let me be clear here.
Speaker: That means that since 2018, he's led the league in interceptions accumulatively.
Speaker: Not each year he leads the league, but since 2018, you add up all the picks to now he leads the league.
Speaker: You do that same thing with touchdowns.
Speaker: He leads the league since 2019, just to be clear.
Speaker: He's thrown a pick in six games in a row, seven in six games, seven interceptions in six games.
Speaker: He's got 10 touchdowns and seven picks over those six games.
Speaker: And again, he's also led the league in touchdowns since 2019.
Speaker: Now let's get into Josh Allen just specifically before we get into the Bills.
Speaker: I was looking at some stats here, just kind of accumulating some stuff.
Speaker: Josh Allen is second in the league in completion percentage at 70%.
Speaker: He's top five in yards past fours.
Speaker: He's second in success rate.
Speaker: He's been sacked less than any other starter other than Patrick Mahomes, despite being in top 10 in hurries right outside the top 10 in times that they blitz Josh Allen.
Speaker: So he avoids sacks.
Speaker: He gets out of the pocket.
Speaker: He's second in success rate.
Speaker: He makes the right throws.
Speaker: He's top five in EPA per play.
Speaker: He's first in completion percentage above expected.
Speaker: He's eighth in touchdown percentage.
Speaker: He's first in ELO rating.
Speaker: He's fourth in QBR.
Speaker: He's ninth in passer rating.
Speaker: He's tied for first in rushing touchdowns.
Speaker: The dude is elite by any advanced metric that you look at.
Speaker: Josh Allen is fantastic.
Speaker: So when I see questions online right now of, is Josh Allen even a top 10 quarterback?
Speaker: Is Josh Allen average league, average should the Bills look to be drafting in these next couple of years?
Speaker: And then really take attention to those metrics.
Speaker: He's...
Speaker: He's being pressured and hurried a bunch.
Speaker: He's not getting sacked a lot.
Speaker: He's throwing the ball for a bunch of yards.
Speaker: He's throwing the ball for a bunch of touchdowns.
Speaker: He's extremely efficient with the football.
Speaker: except when he turns it over.
Speaker: And usually this course corrects, right, with turnovers, but with him, for whatever reason, it hasn't this season.
Speaker: He's on pace for his most interceptions in a year this season, and that's a problem.
Speaker: There's no doubt he's got to be a little bit more careful with the football.
Speaker: He has got a risk-reward issue.
Speaker: Now let's look at the Bills just overall as an offense, away from Josh Allen.
Speaker: Really, Ken Dorsey can help Josh Allen.
Speaker: It looks like he has by those metrics, but what does Ken Dorsey do on the whole offense?
Speaker: Well, they're third in DVOA.
Speaker: Third, they're first in success rate.
Speaker: As an offense, they're first in success rate.
Speaker: They're third in EPA per play, and they're second in third down conversion percentage.
Speaker: They're third in red zone efficiency.
Speaker: When they get to that red zone, they're scoring.
Speaker: When they get on third down, they're converting.
Speaker: These are things that you look for.
Speaker: I mean, innovation, ability to get guys open, ability to move the chains over and over again.
Speaker: Be successful.
Speaker: I mean, and it's not like this is a Bengals offense, first thing that came to my mind, where you've got wide receivers through the roof.
Speaker: I mean, Trenton Irwin's their fourth best wide receiver.
Speaker: He'd go be a number two, a really great number three on a lot of teams.
Speaker: Instead, they've got, you know, Higgins, Chase, and Boyd.
Speaker: I know they've been dealing with some injury issues there.
Speaker: Just the first team that came to my mind.
Speaker: Point is, this is not a stacked offense.
Speaker: You've got Stephon Diggs and...
Speaker: A bunch of threes in my mind.
Speaker: Gabe Davis is a terrible number two wide receiver.
Speaker: He's not a route runner.
Speaker: He can't win at the point of attack.
Speaker: He's a go ball guy.
Speaker: He's a, I mean, I think I've said it before on this podcast.
Speaker: He's a dollar tree Mike Williams.
Speaker: That's what he is at best.
Speaker: Gabe Davis would be a pretty solid number three.
Speaker: And then you've got, you know, Khalil Shakir, who they drafted, I believe this season or last season at the slot wide receiver.
Speaker: It's fine.
Speaker: Not bad.
Speaker: There's just not a lot going for this Bills team as far as you just look at the skill position players.
Speaker: James Cook, second year running back, he's solid.
Speaker: Ken Dorsey has actually elevated his numbers.
Speaker: So I say this to say Josh Allen's not a bad quarterback.
Speaker: Ken Dorsey has been a great offensive coordinator.
Speaker: I think another team's going to go poach them.
Speaker: This is a panic move from the Bills.
Speaker: You've got a head coach in Sean McDermott.
Speaker: who peaked back in 2021 when, or I believe 2020 when they made that AFC championship game next year.
Speaker: They lose in the divisional round in 13 seconds to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker: Since then, it has been downhill.
Speaker: It feels like they're chasing something that's not there anymore.
Speaker: It feels like they're chasing a high.
Speaker: Josh Allen every game.
Speaker: It feels like, well, it almost is like someone's in his ear.
Speaker: Saying, hey, you've got to do more, you've got to do more, you've got to do more, because that's the way he plays.
Speaker: And yeah, there's some essence of Allen's game stylistically that is that.
Speaker: You know, he's a backyard quarterback in some essence.
Speaker: He's kind of like a Brett Favre in some ways, or...
Speaker: You know, name another, you know, Dan Marino, whatever it may be, a Patrick Mahomes type, you know, extend the play.
Speaker: But he's gotten a little too big for his britches here.
Speaker: And I don't think that's because of Ken Dorsey.
Speaker: I don't think it's because Josh Allen is a bad quarterback.
Speaker: He's extremely talented.
Speaker: And the numbers say he's actually been pretty damn good.
Speaker: The interceptions thing has to stop.
Speaker: It does.
Speaker: He's got to be more careful with the football.
Speaker: And again, he's on pace to throw for, I mean, he's got 11 picks right now, so he's on pace to throw for over 20.
Speaker: And the most interceptions Josh Allen's thrown for in a whole season was in 2021 with 15.
Speaker: He's got 11 right now.
Speaker: It's been an issue.
Speaker: I'm not trying to say Josh Allen's perfect, but to say he's still not a top five quarterback, it's asinine.
Speaker: And to say that Ken Dorsey is the reason that these interceptions are happening, it's not true either.
Speaker: You look at separation stats, the ability for him to get these guys open.
Speaker: I mean, again, we just talked about the weapons, how they're below average.
Speaker: Well, Ken Dorsey's scheming these guys open and he's getting his best player, Stefan Diggs, the football.
Speaker: What a lot of other teams can't say, feed the number one target.
Speaker: They've done that.
Speaker: And they only have one of them.
Speaker: There's not another guy who's, oh, we got a T. Higgins over here.
Speaker: Ken Dorsey's been innovative with what he's had to work with.
Speaker: Let's just take a look at the last month, because this last month the Bills have struggled.
Speaker: And this is from Mina Kimes on Twitter.
Speaker: Their first in success rate just over the last month.
Speaker: Fifth in EPA per play.
Speaker: 32nd in the turnover margin.
Speaker: 32nd in the turnover margin.
Speaker: And that's looking at the defense's ability to get takeaways, but obviously the main point being the offense has been giving away the football at way too high of a rate.
Speaker: So can Dorsey supposed to control the fumbles here?
Speaker: The tipped passes that have been interceptions?
Speaker: Or what about just looking at metrics of luck here on the season?
Speaker: Net win probability.
Speaker: This is from Tom Bliss.
Speaker: He's a manager of football ops data scientist at the NFL.
Speaker: Just looking at net win probability added through week 10, and this table just shows you kind of the metric for luck right now that's being used, at least in this measure.
Speaker: So it looks at dropped interceptions that were dropped by the opponent, dropped passes that were dropped by the opponent you're playing, field goals and extra points attempted by the opponent, and fumble recoveries by either team.
Speaker: And just looking at those four metrics to measure how lucky a team's been
Speaker: through at this point in the season, the Bills are second to last.
Speaker: As far as luck is concerned, they've been extremely unlucky.
Speaker: They're right above the Minnesota Vikings there, who are 32nd, but the Bills are 31st in luck.
Speaker: But yeah, let's get rid of Ken Dorsey.
Speaker: And what about, you know, I talked about the talent or the lack thereof.
Speaker: What about their drafts?
Speaker: What about Brandon Bean, their general manager?
Speaker: Because the roster and the drafts have been an issue now for, I'd say, since at least 2021.
Speaker: I mean, 2018, Josh Allen drafting him in the seventh overall pick, that really saved Brandon Bean.
Speaker: Because you look at these, let's just look since 2017.
Speaker: Because I've taken a gander here and I've really, or excuse me, since 2018.
Speaker: Because I've looked at this and there's not as many hits as you'd think.
Speaker: Because Stefan Diggs, Josh Allen and company, and a defense that was really solid for a large part of last season have really held up the reputation of this team.
Speaker: So in 2018, you draft Josh Allen, and you get Tremaine Edmonds, 7th and 16th overall picks.
Speaker: Two hits.
Speaker: Solid.
Speaker: Tremaine Edmonds, is he 16th overall?
Speaker: It's good, though.
Speaker: You get Harrison Phillips, that a D tackle.
Speaker: Solid.
Speaker: Toron Johnson at cornerback, solid.
Speaker: This is a good draft, just through your first four rounds.
Speaker: You don't really get a huge hit there past that.
Speaker: You know, Saran Neal, Wyatt Teller in the fifth round, no ones.
Speaker: Ray McLeod, not even with the team anymore.
Speaker: He was a sixth-round pick.
Speaker: Solid player, though.
Speaker: 2019, Ed Oliver, ninth overall pick.
Speaker: hasn't lived up to the expectations by any means.
Speaker: Not a bad player.
Speaker: Not a hit.
Speaker: And I haven't really done the in-depth here on who necessarily Brandon Bean missed on.
Speaker: I'm just looking at these players that he took.
Speaker: Cody Ford, tackle.
Speaker: Solid player.
Speaker: Devin Singletary, been okay.
Speaker: Third round running back.
Speaker: I mean, you look at Isaiah Pacheco with the Chiefs.
Speaker: I mean, that's a six-round pick right there.
Speaker: I mean, is Devin Singletary as good as Rashad White?
Speaker: That's a third-round pick from Tampa Bay.
Speaker: I don't think so.
Speaker: Dawson Knox, okay, another third-round pick for tight ends.
Speaker: He's been fine.
Speaker: He's an average tight end.
Speaker: After that, not a lot to speak of here.
Speaker: Jaquan Johnson's been a solid pickup from the quarterback, especially if you're counting the fact that it's a six-round pick.
Speaker: But again,
Speaker: He doesn't start.
Speaker: He's a rotational guy, but a six-round pick, so we'll give him some credit.
Speaker: 2020, A.J.
Speaker: Appin, I never know how to say this guy's name.
Speaker: He's an edge rusher.
Speaker: He's a defensive end.
Speaker: He went to Iowa.
Speaker: He was the 54th overall pick.
Speaker: They didn't have a first-round pick that year because of the Stephon Diggs trade.
Speaker: 15 and a half sacks for AJ.
Speaker: Solid player.
Speaker: Zach Moss, another running back.
Speaker: They don't even have him on the team anymore.
Speaker: Gabe Davis, we've talked about him.
Speaker: Jake Fromm in the fifth round.
Speaker: Oh, nice.
Speaker: Jake Fromm out of Georgia.
Speaker: He's really done a lot.
Speaker: Tyler Bass, they got a kicker in the sixth round.
Speaker: Isaiah Hodgins, not on the team anymore.
Speaker: with the New York Giants, and then a cornerback who hasn't really meant a lot to anyone right now.
Speaker: He is still on the team, has not played a snap this season.
Speaker: Let's go to 2022.
Speaker: Or excuse me, 2021.
Speaker: Gregory Rousseau, solid pick, right at the end of the first round.
Speaker: Not great, not bad, by any means.
Speaker: 16 sacks in his career.
Speaker: Boogie Basham, second round pick.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: I would say this is an overall miss on Boogie Basham.
Speaker: Again, a guy who has not played really a lot for them this season at all.
Speaker: Hardly at all on the field.
Speaker: That's a miss in the second round.
Speaker: Spencer Brown, offensive lineman.
Speaker: This is a rotational guy.
Speaker: Tommy Doyle, that's a miss.
Speaker: in the offensive line.
Speaker: Marquez Stevenson, wide receiver, sixth round, that's a miss.
Speaker: Damar Hamlin, listen, if it weren't for an absolute tragedy that none of us wanted to happen, we would not know really Hamlin's name.
Speaker: He's a rotational defensive back who really came in last season and provided some decent snaps when they needed and they had injuries at the position.
Speaker: Not a lot to say there.
Speaker: And then nothing else, sixth, seventh round, nothing else there from them that's worth anything.
Speaker: And then you go 2022, Kair Lam.
Speaker: I mean, they've waived him now.
Speaker: He's not on the team.
Speaker: That was their first round pick at corner.
Speaker: Chiefs traded up and got Tripp McDuffie right before them.
Speaker: That was their counter.
Speaker: A guy who's not in the league.
Speaker: James Cook, second round running back.
Speaker: Solid.
Speaker: He's good.
Speaker: I like James Cook.
Speaker: Running back position, value, need.
Speaker: Don't know if that's where they needed this.
Speaker: Terrell Bernard.
Speaker: Bernard's been okay.
Speaker: Another rotational guy.
Speaker: He's a good tackler.
Speaker: Bernard's involved.
Speaker: For a third-round blindbacker, you'll call it as a win.
Speaker: Khalil Shakir drafted last season.
Speaker: We talked a little bit about him starting to blossom in that slot receiver position.
Speaker: They drafted, I mean, he's 23 or 24 when they drafted him out of Boise State.
Speaker: Fifth-round pick.
Speaker: Matt Arasia, Bunter, Christian Binford, defensive back, and then nothing else, sixth-seventh round.
Speaker: And then you look at this round.
Speaker: Dalton Kincaid, TBD on that, looks solid.
Speaker: Osias Torres, nope, hasn't played well this year.
Speaker: He's a guard.
Speaker: We'll give him some time.
Speaker: Rookie out of Florida.
Speaker: Hasn't played well.
Speaker: Doreen Williams, linebacker, hasn't been a factor.
Speaker: Justin Shorter, fifth-round wide receiver.
Speaker: Doesn't play on the practice squad.
Speaker: Two seventh-round picks thereafter that are not factors.
Speaker: You just look at this, and it's like, yeah, they're good.
Speaker: This is a good player.
Speaker: No blue chippers.
Speaker: I mean, what's the blue chipper that I named?
Speaker: Gregory Rousseau would be the closest thing.
Speaker: And then after that, you look at that draft.
Speaker: I mean, there's nothing else there.
Speaker: It was misses.
Speaker: Boogie Basham missed.
Speaker: Spencer Brown, okay.
Speaker: Tommy Doyle, that's a miss.
Speaker: I mean, these are all, you know, rotational players.
Speaker: There's no blue chippers.
Speaker: They're not setting any franchise pieces up for Josh Allen or for this defense.
Speaker: Micah Hyde and Jordan Boyer, that safety duo that's been touted for these last few years as one of the best.
Speaker: Obviously, they're aging now both in their early 30s, maybe have taken a step down.
Speaker: They weren't drafted by the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker: Von Miller, he wasn't drafted by the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker: Matt Milano, he was drafted 2017.
Speaker: I think that was Brandon Bean's first year.
Speaker: That was a hit.
Speaker: Matt Milano was one of their best players.
Speaker: So when I look at the Buffalo Bills and I look at their issues, it's certainly not offense.
Speaker: Or excuse me, not offensive coordinator.
Speaker: It's the defense.
Speaker: It's the play calls.
Speaker: It's the situational football that they somehow end up on the wrong side of over and over and over again.
Speaker: And you look at their chances now to make the playoffs.
Speaker: ESPN says they have a 33% chance.
Speaker: I had this team missing the playoffs before the season.
Speaker: I didn't know how it would go.
Speaker: I was a little nervous, but it looks good right now.
Speaker: I didn't think they'd be five and five through 10 games.
Speaker: I certainly did not think that.
Speaker: I thought it was going to be a close miss.
Speaker: In fact, I probably had them winning 10 games.
Speaker: I don't know how that looks right now.
Speaker: So that's just what I think about the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker: I think this is an absolute panic move.
Speaker: Ken Dorsey will be hired, and he's going to go do well wherever he goes next.
Speaker: And who's his replacement?
Speaker: That's the next part of this.
Speaker: It's Joe Brady.
Speaker: Well, let's take a look at Joe Brady, okay?
Speaker: First off, let's take a look at Ken Dorsey just to give you some real perspective here on where Ken Dorsey's come from and what he's worked his way up to.
Speaker: Quarterback's coach for the Carolina Panthers 2013 to 2017.
Speaker: Does that ring a bell?
Speaker: Do you remember who the quarterback was for the Carolina Panthers?
Speaker: Oh, that's right.
Speaker: It was Cam Newton.
Speaker: Was Cam Newton playing well from 2013 to 2017?
Speaker: Oh, that's right.
Speaker: He was an MVP-level play.
Speaker: How was he before and after those years?
Speaker: Oh, that's right.
Speaker: He regressed quickly after 2017.
Speaker: And if you want to say that's because of age or injuries, that hadn't happened yet.
Speaker: That wasn't until a couple years after that.
Speaker: That was more like 2019, 2020, where really injuries and age started to be a part of this.
Speaker: Physically, I think Cam Newton was still near his prime.
Speaker: Ken Dorsey was a massive part of that.
Speaker: He was the guy in Cam Newton's ears.
Speaker: He was the guy through practice.
Speaker: Hey, here's how we read these defenses.
Speaker: Here's what I want you to do on the read options.
Speaker: That was all Ken Dorsey from 2013 to 2017.
Speaker: Then he joins the Bills.
Speaker: He's the quarterbacks coach for Josh Allen in 2019 to 2020.
Speaker: When did Josh Allen look his best?
Speaker: When did Josh Allen really blow up and become an MVP candidate?
Speaker: Oh, that's right.
Speaker: That was 2019 to 2020.
Speaker: Okay.
Speaker: Well, what about after that?
Speaker: 2021 passing game coordinator, quarterbacks coach.
Speaker: Okay.
Speaker: Then he was the offensive coordinator for the season.
Speaker: Well, and now he's fired.
Speaker: Now he's gone just because of that.
Speaker: Now let's go take a look at Joe Brady.
Speaker: So Joe Brady, he worked his way up.
Speaker: William and Mary, he's a linebackers coach, Penn State.
Speaker: He's a grad assistant trying to find his way.
Speaker: Gets over to an offensive assistant in the National Football League for the New Orleans Saints 2017 to 2018.
Speaker: Then he goes back to college.
Speaker: Gets a step up, though.
Speaker: Passing game coordinator and a wide receivers coach.
Speaker: He's not a quarterback's coach, not an offensive coordinator.
Speaker: He's a passing game coordinator and a wide receivers coach.
Speaker: For LSU in 2019.
Speaker: Now what do we know about LSU.
Speaker: In 2019.
Speaker: It's one of the best offenses of all time.
Speaker: It's one of the most stacked.
Speaker: College offenses of all time.
Speaker: Justin Jefferson.
Speaker: Jamar Chase.
Speaker: Joe Burrow.
Speaker: A great offensive line.
Speaker: So then he blows up because of that.
Speaker: Because again an historic offense.
Speaker: is fielded, and they win the national championship.
Speaker: Ken Dorsey, or excuse me, Joe Brady, then goes to the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker: For 2020 and 2021.
Speaker: He was fired.
Speaker: It was a terrible season for the Carolina Panthers offensively.
Speaker: 5-11 and ranked bottom 10 in about every advanced metric.
Speaker: Any basic offensive metric that you'd want to look at.
Speaker: The Carolina Panthers in that year.
Speaker: And then he gets a job somehow still after getting fired.
Speaker: Still riding off that high of LSU.
Speaker: Goes to be a quarterback's coach for the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker: Now 2022 and 2022.
Speaker: So that was last season.
Speaker: Into this season.
Speaker: Josh Allen had more struggles last season into this season than he's had before.
Speaker: He's still playing well.
Speaker: Let's be clear.
Speaker: I laid it out.
Speaker: Second in success rate, top five in yards, first in ELO.
Speaker: I mean, top five in EPA per play.
Speaker: He's, by the advanced metrics, elite.
Speaker: And now he gets the OC job.
Speaker: So Joe Brady, who has done nothing to this point, he's gotten fired from an OC job, and he was a passing game coordinator on an absolutely stacked college offense.
Speaker: That's what Joe Brady's done, and that's the solution here.
Speaker: It's not, hey, let's take a look at Brandon Green and his draft history because I just named you a bunch of players, and how many did you really know?
Speaker: If you're an absolute nerd like me, maybe you knew over 50%.
Speaker: If you're just a football guy, eh, you knew two or three, maybe four.
Speaker: That's where we're at here with the Buffalo Bills, and that's how they're taking care of business.
Speaker: by kicking the can down the road, and it's by them saving their own behinds.
Speaker: And by there, I mean Sean McDermott and Brandon Bean.
Speaker: Those two need to be looked at.
Speaker: I've been calling for Brandon Bean to be fired since last season, end of two seasons ago probably, while other people have been calling for Sean McDermott.
Speaker: And that's fine.
Speaker: If you want to get Sean McDermott out of there, I would be okay with that as well.
Speaker: Probably both.
Speaker: Probably a clean house situation.
Speaker: but to fire an OC who's fielded by all advanced metrics, a top five offense.
Speaker: And that's the thing.
Speaker: If that field goal's missed, if the 12-man on the field doesn't happen, Ken Dorsey still has his job.
Speaker: But this is how franchises react.
Speaker: And I don't know if this was a front office thing, an owner thing, where, hey, we've got to do something.
Speaker: What are we going to do here?
Speaker: We've got issues.
Speaker: And so now Brandon Bean's forced to make a move.
Speaker: Sean McDermott's forced to say, hey, here's who we can fire.
Speaker: Here's what we should do.
Speaker: Here's the problem.
Speaker: When he would have his job right now, Ken Dorsey would be talking with Josh Allen saying, hey, we got to get rid of these turnovers.
Speaker: Here's how we do it.
Speaker: I've gotten us this far.
Speaker: I've been able to fix guys before.
Speaker: Let me fix you.
Speaker: Remember Cam Newton, who couldn't necessarily throw the football at a high efficiency, had some turnover problems?
Speaker: He was able to figure that out.
Speaker: And actually, Josh Allen's got some similarities into Cam Newton physically with a better arm.
Speaker: He didn't even give him a chance.
Speaker: It's his first season.
Speaker: It's his second full season.
Speaker: Because he got 20-22.
Speaker: But I mean, you're finally getting into a rhythm here with Ken Dorsey.
Speaker: And again, offensively, they have looked good.
Speaker: The turnovers have been a huge issue, but that's not all on Dorsey at all.
Speaker: I mean, take a look at Patrick Mahomes last season through the first half of the season.
Speaker: Take a look at him right now.
Speaker: He's turning over the ball at a high rate.
Speaker: Is anyone calling for Matt Nagy's head?
Speaker: Was anyone calling for Eric Biennemi to be fired?
Speaker: No.
Speaker: And if they were, it was because of maybe some play calling things, but it wasn't because of turnovers.
Speaker: It wasn't because of interceptions or freak fumbles.
Speaker: This is a panic move by an organization that...
Speaker: peaked in the divisional round.
Speaker: They had 13 seconds that may have changed their fate, but I don't like where this franchise is headed.
Speaker: And I don't like any team who makes rash decisions like this.
Speaker: And that's what the Buffalo Bills are doing.
Speaker: Let's go over to the Broncos.
Speaker: Nice job, boys.
Speaker: That's what I have to say.
Speaker: Nice job.
Speaker: You know, I mean...
Speaker: This team's now becoming more of what I thought they were, you know, a middling team.
Speaker: Not good, not terrible.
Speaker: I had them, I think, 8-9.
Speaker: And it feels like that could happen.
Speaker: They're 4-5.
Speaker: I'd say that, or 7-10.
Speaker: Russell Wilson, some vintage Russ on Monday night.
Speaker: He has more touchdown passes this year than he did all of last season.
Speaker: So Sean Payton's starting to do his job.
Speaker: You just look at the raw numbers.
Speaker: I mean...
Speaker: completion percentage, just yards, just box score, not really getting behind the box score, no pun intended.
Speaker: Russell Wilson looks good.
Speaker: If you go to the advanced metrics, it's not as good as, per se, Josh Allen, for instance.
Speaker: It's been better this year, and the defense has stepped up.
Speaker: The last four games, the defense, Chiefs, 19 points in a loss.
Speaker: Packers, 17 points a win.
Speaker: Chiefs, they allow only nine points.
Speaker: They win.
Speaker: Bills, they allow 22 points, and they win.
Speaker: And that's the thing, and I know the standard is so low, but 22 points, and they were able to win.
Speaker: Now, last season, this defense was allowing 22 points or less a lot of the time, and they couldn't get it done.
Speaker: I forgot what the exact number.
Speaker: I think it was like 16 points or something.
Speaker: 17.
Speaker: Some weird number that the Broncos just could not get passed for whatever reason offensively.
Speaker: If they can get... If this defense... Because we talked about this a few weeks ago about the turnover rate on the defensive side of the football for the Broncos.
Speaker: It wasn't high.
Speaker: It's not like they lost a bunch of pieces.
Speaker: It should not have...
Speaker: adhered this sort of drop-off, and now over the last month, we've seen them pick themselves back up.
Speaker: And let me remind you, this is the defense that we're talking about that allowed 70 points earlier in the year to the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker: But Vance Joseph knows how to pick these guys back up.
Speaker: He knows how to put the pieces back together, and they're starting to do that.
Speaker: Do I see them as a playoff team?
Speaker: No.
Speaker: Do I see them as in the hunt?
Speaker: I mean...
Speaker: It's hard to say not.
Speaker: You've got a bunch of 5-4 slash 5-5 teams, then some 4-5 teams, and the Chargers, Jets, Broncos, they're all right there.
Speaker: So yeah, they're in the hunt.
Speaker: I think they're going to be an upset alert.
Speaker: That's what I think the Broncos are.
Speaker: And you look at their next four games, Vikings, Browns, Texans, Chargers.
Speaker: Three AFC games out of those four.
Speaker: I think the Vikings is Monday night football, if I'm not mistaken.
Speaker: Sunday night football.
Speaker: That's right.
Speaker: Sunday night football, which, you know, a few weeks ago would be going, oh my God, snooze fest.
Speaker: Let me find something else to watch.
Speaker: I mean, but now that's, that's fun.
Speaker: That's enticing.
Speaker: Justin Jefferson could be coming back.
Speaker: This is the Broncos team.
Speaker: That's on a three game win streak for the first time.
Speaker: I mean, at least since Russell Wilson's been there, feels like even longer than that though.
Speaker: So that's a game.
Speaker: Then you've got the Browns, you know, news coming out today.
Speaker: That Deshaun Watson broke a bone in his shoulder recording this on Wednesday, November 15th.
Speaker: So now you've got an offense that's going to be headed up by P.J.
Speaker: Tucker.
Speaker: Nice job, Browns.
Speaker: Dobbs was on your roster.
Speaker: Dobbs looks good.
Speaker: Way to go, Vikings picking him up.
Speaker: And then you've got the Texans.
Speaker: That's going to be a game where if this defense can step up, but I mean, C.J.
Speaker: Stroud,
Speaker: I don't necessarily see that happening, but could be feisty.
Speaker: And then a division rival, the Chargers.
Speaker: We'll see.
Speaker: I mean, could the Broncos go 2-2 in their next four games?
Speaker: Yeah, I think they could.
Speaker: And that put them at, what, 6-7?
Speaker: Eh.
Speaker: It's an average team.
Speaker: This is a solid team now, especially when you talk about them starting 1-5.
Speaker: You have to bring that context to this.
Speaker: They have won now three games in a row.
Speaker: This is not the same team it was at the beginning of the season.
Speaker: And Russell Wilson's looking better.
Speaker: Is he looking worth his cap hit, worth his contract?
Speaker: Not even remotely close.
Speaker: It's the worst contract in the league.
Speaker: Besides maybe Deshaun Watson, especially now because of this injury and because of the cap hits with Deshaun Watson, which are asinine.
Speaker: Just looking at the cap hits here because they went all in.
Speaker: The Browns went all in on this season.
Speaker: having beat their Super Bowl push, and they readjusted some things, making his cap hit this year only 19 million.
Speaker: What about 2024 through 2026?
Speaker: 63.9 million each year, the cap hit for Deshaun Watson.
Speaker: So if you want to say Watson over Wilson, that's fine.
Speaker: It's either one.
Speaker: Those are the two worst contracts in the league, but at least Russell Wilson's playing and starting to look like he's at least a middling.
Speaker: to slightly above maybe middling quarterback.
Speaker: And this brings us into this.
Speaker: Deshaun Watson out for the season.
Speaker: What does this do in the AFC playoff picture?
Speaker: Browns are in six.
Speaker: They're out now to me.
Speaker: No Deshaun Watson.
Speaker: And again, he hasn't been great, but they don't have anyone.
Speaker: Now, if you were able to talk to the Titans about maybe releasing Ryan Tannehill or the Raiders, a team, talk about them releasing Jimmy Garoppolo,
Speaker: Now you're starting to have a conversation.
Speaker: I'm going to be looking for that these next few days.
Speaker: Could Jimmy G go be a Cleveland Brown?
Speaker: Could Ryan Tannehill go be a Cleveland Brown?
Speaker: Are those guys great?
Speaker: No.
Speaker: Do the Browns have a pretty solid offensive line, even with the loss of Tyler Conklin?
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: And they've got weapons.
Speaker: They still have a running game without Nick Chubb.
Speaker: But that's also the headline.
Speaker: If you're a Cleveland Browns fan, you've lost Nick Chubb, Tyler Conklin, and Deshaun Watson, your three most important, maybe I won't say best, but your three most important offensive pieces to your team.
Speaker: All the season-ending injuries.
Speaker: So yeah, looking at the playoff picture, Chiefs 1, Ravens 2, Jags 3, Miami 4.
Speaker: That all feels pretty safe besides the Jags at 3.
Speaker: I don't know.
Speaker: Because you look there and the Texans are just surging right now.
Speaker: The Houston Texans 5-4.
Speaker: What a game from them against Luana Rumo, a defensive coordinator that I've talked about on this podcast.
Speaker: And he stifled him for a little bit in the second quarter, third quarter.
Speaker: Luana Rumo did his thing and had the Cincinnati Bengals flying around against the Texans for a little bit.
Speaker: But really?
Speaker: I mean, that game could have been over time.
Speaker: That Texans game could have been over.
Speaker: There was a third and two near the end of the game, two third and shorts, where Bobby Slowick, third and two, could have ended the game, deep pass.
Speaker: And then a third and four, another pass, another deep pass, I think it was.
Speaker: It was just looking at those play calls.
Speaker: I'm not putting those on C.J.
Speaker: Stroud.
Speaker: I want to run there.
Speaker: I want a short pass.
Speaker: I want a play action boot.
Speaker: I like the idea of keeping it in my best player's hands, who's an MVP candidate now, by the way, might I add.
Speaker: A true MVP candidate is C.J.
Speaker: Stroud.
Speaker: Should be treated as such.
Speaker: But yeah, I think the Dolphins have a solid chance right now with the way the Bills are heading to win their division.
Speaker: And then so that four seed may be, that three-sus, four seed may be up in the air for Texans or Jags, AFC South.
Speaker: Steelers, I like their chances of making it, especially now with where the Browns are at.
Speaker: And then this is where it gets interesting.
Speaker: The Bengals and the Bills.
Speaker: The Colts somehow are still hanging around.
Speaker: The Raiders.
Speaker: How are the Raiders and the Colts 5-5?
Speaker: Unbelievable.
Speaker: Unbelievable.
Speaker: Looking at the NFC, a little more clear here, right?
Speaker: Eagles, Lions, Niners, I mean, those guys, they're all winning their division, okay?
Speaker: They just are.
Speaker: Look at that NFC South, who knows?
Speaker: The Saints are 5-5 right now.
Speaker: The Bucs are 4-5.
Speaker: The Falcons are 4-6.
Speaker: So those three teams are all sort of trying to vie for this division win.
Speaker: And then 5-6-7, Seahawks, Dallas, and Minnesota on the surge with Josh Dobbs, the most fun story in football right now.
Speaker: Again, that Sunday night matchup against the Broncos.
Speaker: It's going to be a doozy, I believe, especially with the Broncos' defense kind of starting to look better.
Speaker: Could they stop this Josh Dobbs momentum?
Speaker: I've heard this compared to Lynn's sanity.
Speaker: which I think is pretty funny.
Speaker: And then, yeah, the wild cards really aren't much to speak of besides the NFC South.
Speaker: Who can win that NFC South division?
Speaker: But I think 5, 6, and 7, at least 5 and 6 are in.
Speaker: Seahawks and Dallas seem like for sure to me.
Speaker: And we'll see what happens.
Speaker: This is going to be a big week for the playoffs.
Speaker: Every week from now on is.
Speaker: Bengals, Ravens tomorrow night, huge implications there.
Speaker: And looking at some other huge games as far as playoff implications, Titans, Jacks.
Speaker: I mean, we're talking about Jacks and Texans, if the Titans can somehow, because they're going to keep trying to win.
Speaker: If you want to argue that they shouldn't, which I would, that's fine.
Speaker: I know here I am two weeks ago.
Speaker: Titans are going to make the playoffs.
Speaker: That was my hot take.
Speaker: Yeah, it didn't look good.
Speaker: It didn't age well.
Speaker: Seahawks, Rams.
Speaker: I think the Seahawks should take care of L.A.
Speaker: It is L.A.
Speaker: It's a division rival.
Speaker: And I suppose those wild cards are fine because you look at the commanders.
Speaker: That's an NFC team that's trying to make their way.
Speaker: Could three teams from the NFC North, or excuse me, from the NFC East make the playoffs?
Speaker: The commanders are trying to have a say in that.
Speaker: They're 4-6.
Speaker: They play the Giants.
Speaker: They're going to win that game at home.
Speaker: And then this one, 3-25.
Speaker: Lock in the New York Jets at the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker: The playoffs implications in this game are absolutely through the roof.
Speaker: I didn't mention the Jets when I was talking about the AFC at four and five.
Speaker: They need to be mentioned just because of the defense.
Speaker: Now, Robert Salas made it clear that he's sticking with Zach Wilson.
Speaker: I got to believe he's starting to lose the room on that one.
Speaker: I got to believe that the team's rolling their eyes when he says, yeah, this is our quarterback.
Speaker: This is who we're going with.
Speaker: Come on, man.
Speaker: You've watched him.
Speaker: Do you know wh at a good quarterback looks like?
Speaker: It's not even close to what Zach Wilson's been putting up.
Speaker: Numbers-wise, eye test-wise, he loses in all those categories.
Speaker: It's going to be a fun game.
Speaker: Lots of stuff to look for this next week.
Speaker: And we're going to talk about it all.
Speaker: I'm going to be joined again by Alex Comas, more than likely.
Speaker: I do have some other guests lined up here coming up for the Behind the Box Score podcast.
Speaker: And some really exciting news.
Speaker: A huge announcement for this podcast will be coming in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker: So stay tuned to my Twitter.
Speaker: my Twitter in the description of this podcast and make sure and send me an email, any questions, any segments that you want to bring up and any takes of mine that you hate or takes of mine that you love, that you're impressed with.
Speaker: Come on, make me smile.
Speaker: bboxscore at gmail.com.
Speaker: I appreciate you guys listening so much.
Speaker: If you learned anything from this podcast, I hope it's that, you know, the Buffalo Bills made a terrible decision in firing Ken Dorsey.
Speaker: Thanks for listening, guys.
Speaker: We'll see you all next week right here on the Behind the Box Score podcast.
