Transcript
Speaker: Hello and welcome back.
Speaker: It is the Behind the Box Score podcast.
Speaker: That's right.
Speaker: It's a two-episode week.
Speaker: You probably just listened to, or hopefully you did just listen to, Ryan Shumpert of Rocky Top Insider and I talk all things Vols football this season.
Speaker: What's to come next season, the future, Nico Iapp.
Speaker: Mia Lava.
Speaker: I can't say it right yet.
Speaker: I got to listen to the podcast again, and so do you.
Speaker: You'll learn how to say the name right.
Speaker: You'll learn how this basketball team is going for the Tennessee Volunteers.
Speaker: It was so great sitting down with Ryan Shumpert.
Speaker: We'll do it again here in a couple months when we get closer, when college basketball starts heating up and maybe college football recruiting comes into play, all that sort of stuff.
Speaker: We've got it all on...
Speaker: Yesterday's podcast, and we've got more to come with Ryan Shumpert.
Speaker: Really was fun having him on.
Speaker: It's going to be even more fun right now having one of my good friends on.
Speaker: It's been a couple weeks.
Speaker: I mean, if you've listened to this pod regularly, you know his voice.
Speaker: You know the team that he roots for.
Speaker: You know his personality.
Speaker: He likes to joke.
Speaker: He likes to josh around.
Speaker: His name's Alex Comas.
Speaker: It's so good to have you back, Alex.
Speaker: What's going on, man?
Speaker: Nothing much, man.
Speaker: I mean, I've just seen the Italian stallion going at it in New York, Tommy DeVito, which has been such a great story.
Speaker: And then also to see kind of the Chiefs squabble a little bit these last few weeks and to hear your reactions every week going into it has been fun.
Speaker: And Mac, you've been killing it on your own.
Speaker: I wish I could have been here more for you.
Speaker: But again, you do a really good job on your own.
Speaker: I just want to say that's that I want to make sure I give that credit because
Speaker: Mac, you are really good at what you do.
Speaker: And in fact, for you to do it solo and sound as well and as informed as you are on everything, you deserve a lot of credit for that.
Speaker: So I'm glad that I'm able to contribute now this week.
Speaker: That was so nice.
Speaker: Thank you.
Speaker: I really appreciate that, bro.
Speaker: So, yeah, I mean, it's a challenge, but I have a lot of fun doing it, and I hope that people enjoy listening to it because that's what really matters.
Speaker: So I'm excited that we're back.
Speaker: The duo's here.
Speaker: And, I mean, dude, we've got three weeks of the regular season left.
Speaker: Like, that doesn't sound correct, but that is actually legit.
Speaker: Like, we are less than a month away from playoffs.
Speaker: I'm excited.
Speaker: So...
Speaker: We're going to talk playoff implications, what this week holds as far as just who's going to make the playoffs if they win, who's out if they lose, all sorts of things like that, seeding implications within if a team's already going to make the playoffs, just where they're going to be seeded based on a win or a loss this week, stuff like that.
Speaker: First, though, Alex, we didn't really get to talk about the Bills-Cowboys game.
Speaker: That happened last week.
Speaker: I don't want to really talk about the game itself.
Speaker: You've already heard your analysis, I'm sure, on what those four quarters held, which was an absolute clinic from the Bills.
Speaker: I mean, they just completely big boy Dallas the whole game.
Speaker: It was the first time we've really seen a dominant win like that from Buffalo in this whole Josh Allen era.
Speaker: I feel like they've been trying to...
Speaker: established the fact that they we can run on you we don't have to you know pass the ball through the air we don't have to be this air raid offense they'd never been actually able to do it for 60 minutes well they did prime time against a great defense that they absolutely just had their way with dallas it was fantastic but now what do you take from that alex i mean are the bills let's start with the bills
Speaker: Yeah, for one, the momentum is definitely there.
Speaker: With the way in which they've performed the last three weeks, now, not all the results went their way in the last three weeks necessarily.
Speaker: But one thing that's really been, I think, the key to their emergencies the last three weeks and the way they've been playing so sound offensively has been James Cook.
Speaker: Bingo.
Speaker: Under Ken Dorsey, he was completely underutilized.
Speaker: We saw way too many Latavius Murray
Speaker: carries or receptions out there and especially when they got in the red zone or goal line they'd bring latavius murray in rather than use the weapon that is james cook um and that's one thing that joe brady has completely changed is he is incorporating james cook in a ton of stuff not only is he running the ball more um which he has a great blend of speed and power very similar to his brother dalvin
Speaker: But also too, he's made him a big part of the passing game as well, where he's been a great safety outlet, safety valve that Josh Allen could depend on almost every snap.
Speaker: So to see the way in which James Cook has been performing these last three weeks, I mean, just listen to this from Bill's PR today.
Speaker: James Cook and Christian McCaffrey are the only two players in the NFL this season with 900 plus rushing yards and 400 plus receiving yards.
Speaker: James Cook and Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker: I think a lot of people have overlooked the talent and the ability of James Cook just because of how underutilized he was last season and this season under Ken Dorsey.
Speaker: And finally, Joe Brady's bringing him to light and using him properly because he's so talented.
Speaker: And I think that's been a big key for them in their offensive explosion is they have that weapon and they're using that weapon out of the backfield.
Speaker: I mean, over 200 yards from scrimmage for James Cook against the Cowboys, 179 on the ground with something like 20, 25 attempts.
Speaker: He was annihilating them in every which way, and it was scary.
Speaker: As a Chiefs fan, as a fellow AFC member here, I'm watching going, well, shoot, they've unlocked it.
Speaker: They've figured it out now.
Speaker: I mean, and I was on the board of not firing Ken Dorsey was stupid.
Speaker: I still somewhat think that was kind of to distract, kick the can down the road.
Speaker: Hey, don't look at me.
Speaker: I'm Brandon Bean.
Speaker: Hey, don't look at me.
Speaker: I'm Sean McDermott.
Speaker: Stop.
Speaker: Don't look at me.
Speaker: It's not my fault.
Speaker: I still think that move was somewhat kind of a distraction piece, but overall the offense has started to click and you're right.
Speaker: James Cook's been unlocked.
Speaker: And if that was because Ken Dorsey was at like Latavius Murray too much, then so be it.
Speaker: They've, they've really found something.
Speaker: They've started to figure this out.
Speaker: And I think the bills are the best team in the AFC.
Speaker: I think the bills are the second best team in the NFL.
Speaker: Well, I got something to add on that too.
Speaker: Great.
Speaker: If you look at one possession games this season, if they had an opposite result, and this goes for all teams, specifically with the Bills, they've played in so many one possession games this season that if all those one possession games they ended up losing, if the result went the other way and the Bills won those games, you know what their record would be this season?
Speaker: Ooh!
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: Well, it's like every game you watch and you go, well, the Bills played better.
Speaker: The Bills played better.
Speaker: I mean, that Eagles game, the Buffalo played better that whole game.
Speaker: They weren't able to finish.
Speaker: They allow 17 fourth quarter points to Philadelphia.
Speaker: They kind of just melt down.
Speaker: And obviously, if you're listening, you're going, well, that's the problem with Buffalo.
Speaker: Yeah, but...
Speaker: It's fixable.
Speaker: It's extremely fixable.
Speaker: And we've seen them start to really dial this in.
Speaker: I am terrified of Buffalo.
Speaker: And I look at, you know, what's to come here.
Speaker: We're talking about playoff implications, talking about seeding.
Speaker: That division's not over.
Speaker: The Buffalo Bills play Miami week 18.
Speaker: And if Miami loses one game, which they play the Ravens and the Cowboys these next two weeks, if they lose one game, then that and the Buffalo Bills wins their next two and they play the Chargers and the Patriots.
Speaker: then that game is the division.
Speaker: If Buffalo wins, they got the division.
Speaker: It's going to be in Miami, but Buffalo's winning these next two weeks, Chargers and Patriots.
Speaker: They just are.
Speaker: They're going to absolutely obliterate those two teams, and then it'll come down to week 18.
Speaker: Miami's losing one of these next two weeks, Cowboys or Ravens.
Speaker: You can book that.
Speaker: They're not winning both those games.
Speaker: They have not proven to me that they're able to win both those games in a row.
Speaker: They're not going to.
Speaker: So that division's not over in Buffalo.
Speaker: I'm calling it right now.
Speaker: Buffalo's winning the division.
Speaker: And Mac, add in, add into that, not only will that decide the division, but the loser of that game in week 18 very well could not make the play, possibly could end up out of the playoffs just based on how everything will go in the AFC North with the Browns, Bengals, and the Ravens schedule goes.
Speaker: I mean, it,
Speaker: And to add into the fact the AFC South as well as such is you got a three-team race with that Texans, Jaguars, and Colts.
Speaker: Like, depending on how results go for those six teams that I mentioned, like, if the Dolphins don't take care of business, you know, these next three weeks or they lose two out of three and they go into that Buffalo game, like, if they lose that game, or even the Bills, if they lose that game, they very well could be looking at being left out of the playoffs, which I have to say, like,
Speaker: I think for us, we'd be robbed of a good playoff matchup.
Speaker: I would rather have the Bills and the Dolphins in the playoffs rather than a second team out of the AFC South or a second team out of the AFC North.
Speaker: But it really speaks to how crucial these next few weeks are and how tight the playoff race is that we've got that many teams that are on the bubble and fighting for a chance in.
Speaker: So I've got that AFC East coming down to week 18.
Speaker: I don't think there's a question in that.
Speaker: And I think the bills are better than the dolphins right now.
Speaker: I think it's going to be a great game.
Speaker: It's at Miami, which is huge for them out of the cold weather.
Speaker: But I think it's going to come down to week 18.
Speaker: I'm excited about that game.
Speaker: And the Buffaloes,
Speaker: earned this.
Speaker: I mean, they've had some rough losses.
Speaker: They lost to the Patriots.
Speaker: They lost to a couple other teams that they shouldn't have lost to this year, but a lot of their losses are, are one score against elite teams where Buffalo has some luck, not go their way, a turnover that comes out of nowhere, whatever it may be.
Speaker: Buffalo for the most part though, has been a fantastic team all year.
Speaker: I mean, we talked a couple of weeks ago, or I did by myself, uh,
Speaker: about the advanced numbers of Buffalo's offense.
Speaker: I mean, name an advanced statistic, Josh Allen and or the team is top five, top seven in just every category.
Speaker: They've been elite all season.
Speaker: And at some point that starts to show itself through, right?
Speaker: I mean, with the Vikings last year, kind of the opposite.
Speaker: It's like, okay, these one possession wins, that's going to come back to bite them.
Speaker: They're not like this.
Speaker: And I kind of think it's the flip side with Buffalo.
Speaker: It's like, okay, these one possession losses, they're playing too well to keep losing these games.
Speaker: And now we're in December, and what's happening?
Speaker: They're starting to win.
Speaker: They're getting hot.
Speaker: They've got two of their next three games are wins, and then they'll end at Miami.
Speaker: And if they win that game, who knows?
Speaker: They could be the two seed.
Speaker: They're a team that if you're in the AFC, you don't want to see them.
Speaker: No, no, no, no, no.
Speaker: Especially if they come out as a wild card, you know, whichever division winner would get them, they don't want Buffalo whatsoever.
Speaker: No, I know I don't.
Speaker: As a Chiefs fan, I do not want any part of them.
Speaker: I mean, the Chiefs just lost to them a couple weeks ago.
Speaker: Now, obviously, Kansas City's got some similarities with Buffalo at the end of games, just not getting all the juice out of the – what is it, the squeeze out of the juice?
Speaker: The juice out of the squeeze?
Speaker: I don't know what it is.
Speaker: But they're just not getting all that they can, Alex.
Speaker: That's the point.
Speaker: They're making mistakes and biting themselves in the butt.
Speaker: And so even – I wouldn't want to play a Bills team right now as a Chiefs fan.
Speaker: Let's go over to the Cowboys, though.
Speaker: What do you think about the Cowboys aspect of this loss?
Speaker: Where are you at with them?
Speaker: I mean, I was on Dak MVP train.
Speaker: Mike McCarthy.
Speaker: I was starting to praise Mike McCarthy.
Speaker: Me.
Speaker: I was starting to praise Mike McCarthy.
Speaker: And what do they do?
Speaker: Again, they show me, hey, Mac, stop.
Speaker: You're an idiot.
Speaker: Come on.
Speaker: This is every year the Cowboys do this to you.
Speaker: And you're like, yeah, yeah, I know.
Speaker: You're right.
Speaker: You're right.
Speaker: What am I thinking?
Speaker: This is Dallas.
Speaker: That's exactly what I was going to say, Mac.
Speaker: I feel like it's just ingrained in us now to expect this from the Cowboys.
Speaker: When they're riding high, there's always going to be this loss that comes out of nowhere.
Speaker: All you can do is look at it and go, I mean, that's Dallas.
Speaker: Dallas Cowboys under Jerry Jones for the last decade is that no matter how good they look at times,
Speaker: there's always that loss that just comes out of nowhere.
Speaker: I feel like last week was kind of an outlier for them.
Speaker: They'd been riding so high.
Speaker: The Bills game plan well.
Speaker: The Bills are a hot team coming in.
Speaker: I feel like the Cowboys kind of let their foot off the pedal a little bit because they were riding so high and felt as though they were kind of unbeatable, especially after what they did to Philadelphia the week before.
Speaker: So for them to go into that game, and I think they kind of slept on the Bills a little bit, being that the Bills have kind of been up and down.
Speaker: And playing in Buffalo, too, is not easy.
Speaker: that I feel like it's just an outlier for them.
Speaker: And I think at the end of the day, it could better prepare them for the playoffs coming up.
Speaker: Because now they realize that they cannot, especially now, and in the position they're in when it comes to seeding, they cannot afford to really slip up too much, especially because the division's within grasp.
Speaker: If they take care of business and you have the Eagles,
Speaker: That, you know, they lose a game last week to the Seahawks that they probably should have won.
Speaker: If the Eagles slip up at any point and the Cowboys can't take care of business, they could still win the division.
Speaker: So I think it's a wake up call for them.
Speaker: I will say the one concern that I've had for the Cowboys this season has been kind of the overall ineffectiveness of Tony Pollard.
Speaker: And that's where it's been the concern because last year he was perfect for them because Zeke would kind of eat up first and second down.
Speaker: They'd bring in Tony Pollard on third down and it's just be such a burst of speed compared to what Zeke was.
Speaker: And it now feels like Pollard's in that Zeke role, not as much burst coming in first and second down.
Speaker: I mean, or he'll play a couple of, you know, get a couple of first downs.
Speaker: They bring in Dowdle.
Speaker: And Dowdle's just got that burst.
Speaker: Dowdle's been more explosive than Pollard, which to me, that concerns me.
Speaker: Now, Tony Pollard's had the most, out of all running backs in the league, I think he's top five in terms of, or not top five, but he's consistent in getting at least 50 yards in every game this season on the ground.
Speaker: But in terms of, you know, in matchups where he's got a plus matchup against rushing defenses,
Speaker: He hasn't had that game where he's just exploded and gone off for over a hundred yards.
Speaker: He just hasn't had that.
Speaker: And I think a lot of that has to kind of do with one.
Speaker: It seems as though they're leaning on Dak more and they're leaning on the passing attack more of, of spreading it out in and going more so past than they are run.
Speaker: But with the offensive line they've had, they have, I would expect more out of Tony Pollard.
Speaker: And it's crucial for you to control a running game and have,
Speaker: defenses fear that running game instead of just reverting to, okay, all we got to do is, is worry about the pass and we'll let Tony ball it, Paul or try and slice us up as much as we want, especially come in the playoffs.
Speaker: And it's important on the other side for the defense to be able to stop the run because offenses, you know, come playoff time are going to be able to want to control the game, take a long seven, eight minute drive and just kind of control a quarter.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: Dallas can't really stop the run either.
Speaker: We saw that against Buffalo talking about James Cook.
Speaker: They're so fast.
Speaker: They fly around the field so well.
Speaker: They can guard the pass.
Speaker: I think them up against Miami here this week is going to be a great game because I think they're actually going to be able to stop the speedsters and Waddle and Tyreek.
Speaker: I mean, suppress would be a better word, but they're going to be able to have a better chance there because that's the way they're built.
Speaker: They're built to get up.
Speaker: The pass rushers are built to get up field, stop the pass.
Speaker: The cornerbacks are there flying around and they're ball hawks, but...
Speaker: If you're facing a big team that's going to ground and pound you, Micah Parsons isn't necessarily going to be the best fit at an edge guy to stop the run.
Speaker: He's getting upfield too quickly.
Speaker: He wants to stop the pass.
Speaker: He's getting pushed around.
Speaker: And that's the way it looked like their whole defensive line was happening to them.
Speaker: All game against Buffalo.
Speaker: You look at their home and road split, 7-0 at home, 3-4 on the road.
Speaker: They score 40 a game at home, 21 a game away, and they allow 22 a game away, 15 at home.
Speaker: The third down percentage is really what gets me.
Speaker: 53% third down conversion rate at home, 43% away.
Speaker: It's just a massive difference there in what they're able to do when it really matters.
Speaker: And you're talking about the division.
Speaker: You're right.
Speaker: The Cowboys still have a chance to own this.
Speaker: Eagles schedule, though.
Speaker: Giants, Cardinals, Giants.
Speaker: Now, if your Italian Stallion, Tommy DeVito, can get one big win, that'd be great.
Speaker: That'd be it.
Speaker: But it's going to be tough.
Speaker: Let me tell you, it ain't happening this week in Philly.
Speaker: The Giants don't win in Philly.
Speaker: They haven't won in Philly in God knows how long.
Speaker: It's not happening this week.
Speaker: No, it's not.
Speaker: It's probably not happening week 18.
Speaker: But I'd like to give you some hope.
Speaker: I just wanted to see your smile.
Speaker: The Cardinals probably is their best chance to lose if you're a Cowboys fan thinking, okay, how do we get home field?
Speaker: Because that's really what the Cowboys need.
Speaker: They need to win the division so they can get home field advantage.
Speaker: They need to hope that a miracle happens to San Francisco of them losing
Speaker: to hopefully Philadelphia, and then they get to host Philadelphia at home.
Speaker: That would be the Cowboys' dream scenario here.
Speaker: That's the way they can make the Super Bowl.
Speaker: I still believe in them, but it has to be that way.
Speaker: If they're going on the road, if they're the fifth seed, and they have to go play two road games, no.
Speaker: No, they're three and four.
Speaker: No, they can't play on the road.
Speaker: They can't.
Speaker: They're not going to be able to.
Speaker: It's just not going to happen.
Speaker: And San Francisco's just better than them in every category.
Speaker: They're better than them.
Speaker: And even at home, you're going to need some things to go your way.
Speaker: You're going to have to play an amazing game.
Speaker: I think that multiplies by a lot if you're going away.
Speaker: And I just don't see San Francisco losing to the Cowboys in a game in an NFC Championship type scenario to go to the Super Bowl.
Speaker: We've seen those scenarios time and time again, Dallas and San Francisco, and every time the conclusion's the same.
Speaker: So I'm not going to switch up my thinking there at this point.
Speaker: Let's go over to what's happening this week, though.
Speaker: Week 16.
Speaker: Playoff implications were recorded this Thursday, December 21st.
Speaker: Saints-Rams is tonight.
Speaker: And honestly, as far as playoff implications and seeding go, we don't want to spend a lot of time in this game because everyone listening has already watched whatever happened tonight.
Speaker: But...
Speaker: Saints right now currently at a 40% chance to make the playoffs.
Speaker: If they win, that goes up to 70.
Speaker: If they lose, that's down to 23.
Speaker: Rams at 51 right now, that goes up to 72 if they win, down to 14 if they lose.
Speaker: If the Rams lose tonight, they go down to a 14.
Speaker: If the Saints lose, they go down to a 23% chance to make the playoffs.
Speaker: This game is massive for both these teams.
Speaker: They have to get a win.
Speaker: And, I mean, they're both 7-7 coming in here.
Speaker: This is going to be a great game.
Speaker: The Saints...
Speaker: I think they're six and one versus teams below 500, one in five against teams above 500 or above.
Speaker: So this is a Saints team that just has not beaten anyone competent all season.
Speaker: And this is their chance to do so.
Speaker: I don't know if I buy it.
Speaker: Stafford's on a heater.
Speaker: Again, I don't want to talk about it too much, but as far as playoff implications go, tonight's game, Thursday night football, huge.
Speaker: Let's go to Browns Texans.
Speaker: That's going to be on Sunday.
Speaker: CJ Stroud should be back.
Speaker: I haven't actually looked up here.
Speaker: Again, December 21st, Thursday.
Speaker: I haven't looked up any of the latest on his concussion protocol.
Speaker: I haven't been seeing if he's been practicing at all.
Speaker: And I can see Alex looking that up.
Speaker: But let's just go through the percentage chances here.
Speaker: Right now, Texans and the Browns here.
Speaker: The Browns can only go down to a 78% chance if they lose.
Speaker: They're at 90%.
Speaker: They can go up to 99, basically be guaranteed a playoff spot.
Speaker: But they're probably going to make the playoffs either way, the Browns, even if they lose this game.
Speaker: At Texans.
Speaker: So, Texans, 49% chance right now.
Speaker: About a 50-50 shot to make it.
Speaker: If they win, that goes up to 73.
Speaker: If they go down, that goes down to 31%.
Speaker: So, this is going to be a fun game.
Speaker: Flacco, I hope it's CJ Stroud.
Speaker: A great defense in Cleveland.
Speaker: A defense in Houston that's struggled these past couple weeks.
Speaker: We'll see what happens.
Speaker: I think that's going to be one of the best games.
Speaker: Not only because of the playoff implications.
Speaker: I just think it's a good matchup.
Speaker: So latest on CJ Strout from Jonathan Alexander, the Houston Chronicle.
Speaker: Strout remained sideline at practice on Thursday.
Speaker: So he's still in concussion protocol.
Speaker: He missed Wednesday's practice as well.
Speaker: He's trending towards missing his second consecutive game.
Speaker: If he's not back, the Browns, I think, win that game.
Speaker: Yeah, I don't think Case Keenum can do this against Cleveland.
Speaker: I just don't.
Speaker: Not that defense.
Speaker: No.
Speaker: And he hasn't been playing like Joe Flacco, or he didn't play like Joe Flacco last week.
Speaker: Didn't play like Joe Flacco at all last week, which is a crazy thing to say because that's accurate.
Speaker: Yeah, Joe Flacco's been good.
Speaker: He's fun.
Speaker: Elite.
Speaker: Elite.
Speaker: He's elite.
Speaker: Elite, Matt.
Speaker: Yeah, so that game completely depends all on C.J.
Speaker: Stroud.
Speaker: If C.J.
Speaker: Stroud's there, I take the Texans.
Speaker: At home, a must-win game for their playoff chances.
Speaker: They've shown up in every one of those scenarios, it seems, D'Amico and C.J., I mean, last week included.
Speaker: So, yeah, I'm going to wait on that, but if you're right, if there's no C.J., that game's probably done.
Speaker: Jags at Bucs.
Speaker: This one's fun.
Speaker: Bucs?
Speaker: I really like this game, Mac.
Speaker: This game's great.
Speaker: I think...
Speaker: This game's great.
Speaker: It has everything you want.
Speaker: The dynamics of both teams going in.
Speaker: Jags have lost four straight going in.
Speaker: Bucs have won four straight going in.
Speaker: So it's a Jags are ice cold right now.
Speaker: Bucks are riding red hot.
Speaker: And the Bucks, they're right now in pole position to win the NFC South.
Speaker: Yes.
Speaker: So if they win two out of three games, and especially if you look at their Week 17 matchup, they play the Saints.
Speaker: So, if the Saints lose tonight on Thursday Night Football, Bucs take care of business this weekend against the Jags.
Speaker: All they've got to do is win next week against the Saints, and they've got the division locked up.
Speaker: Yeah, that'll be it.
Speaker: This wretched NFC South will finally have been decided if the Saints end up losing Bucks get a win on Sunday or Saturday.
Speaker: I haven't even looked at the games.
Speaker: The games, I mean, there's Saturday, Sunday, and Monday games, so it's hard to kind of know which day all of these games are happening on Christmas weekend.
Speaker: But you've got...
Speaker: and I'm seeing right here.
Speaker: Yeah.
Speaker: So this is a Sunday at three o'clock at Tampa Bay.
Speaker: The over under is only 41 and a half, which I would smash that over.
Speaker: I think there's a good chance.
Speaker: This could be a back and forth high flying kind of game.
Speaker: 69% right now is where the Bucs are at.
Speaker: 73 is where the Bucs are at.
Speaker: Jacks can go up to 90.
Speaker: Bucs can go up to 84 with a win.
Speaker: They both go down to 16-56, respectively, if they lose.
Speaker: So both still will have over a 50% shot to make the playoffs.
Speaker: It's not do or die, but you also pretty much guarantee a playoff berth if you win this game.
Speaker: So that's going to be really fun.
Speaker: Tampa Bay...
Speaker: has the chance to make the postseason again another year.
Speaker: What would that be, four years in a row making the postseason for Tampa Bay?
Speaker: I mean, that just is unheard of for Buccaneers fans.
Speaker: So good for them if they get that dub.
Speaker: Obviously, I'm a Baker Mayfield hater, and he has proven me wrong this whole season.
Speaker: and I will see if he can do it again against a Jacksonville team that you mentioned has struggled mightily.
Speaker: Seahawks, this is a game where they play the Titans.
Speaker: Tennessee has nothing to really play for.
Speaker: If anything, they should lose.
Speaker: At least that's the argument I'd make.
Speaker: Go get a better draft pick.
Speaker: But they're not going to.
Speaker: It's Mike Vrabel.
Speaker: Will Evelis wants to play.
Speaker: They very well may lose, but one thing you can guarantee is that they'll be in the fight for at least three out of four quarters.
Speaker: Yes.
Speaker: It'll be like a one-possession game.
Speaker: Yes.
Speaker: Yeah, they're going to have a good game plan on defense.
Speaker: They're going to stop Geno or Drew Locke, whoever ends up playing for Seattle, and it's going to be close, I think.
Speaker: The defense, especially the front seven, and even the back half, Elijah Molden at a pick-six the other week, they're starting to get better, figure this out.
Speaker: I think that's going to be actually a solid game at...
Speaker: in Nashville at Tennessee.
Speaker: So Seahawks right now, 54, they go up to 69.
Speaker: If they win, they go down to 33.
Speaker: If they lose a 33% chance.
Speaker: So they could be in for, this is kind of a trap game scenario.
Speaker: You're okay.
Speaker: We're playing this crappy Titans team and fine.
Speaker: If it's Will Levis,
Speaker: Will Levis is going to want to win.
Speaker: He's a rookie.
Speaker: And if it's not, if it's Ryan Tannehill, he's going to want to win because he's trying to get a bag.
Speaker: He's trying to get a starting role on another team next season.
Speaker: Tannehill wants to win every game that he plays for the Titans if he gets a chance.
Speaker: There's no question about it.
Speaker: And same with Will Levis.
Speaker: And Mike Vrabel's just not a guy who loses.
Speaker: Or at least tries to lose, is what I mean.
Speaker: He definitely has lost a lot.
Speaker: The Bills and Chargers.
Speaker: And this is another game just for the Bills.
Speaker: We talked about Buffalo, how I think they're the best team in the AFC.
Speaker: They're going to win this game.
Speaker: But just because we're talking about it for gigs here, if they lose their chance right now at 62, they'll go up to 71 if they win.
Speaker: If they lose, they have a 27% chance to make the playoffs.
Speaker: So, again, it's a Chargers team.
Speaker: You could argue this is the worst team in the league.
Speaker: Hey, Brandon Staley's gone.
Speaker: Alex, we need to kind of hooray.
Speaker: We didn't get to talk about that.
Speaker: Hallelujah.
Speaker: It's gone.
Speaker: Thank the Lord.
Speaker: He's gone.
Speaker: Still, 27% chance.
Speaker: This is a Chargers team that's just dreadful to watch right now.
Speaker: Easton Stick and company, I don't think is going to be able to get a win against Buffalo, but I had to mention the chances there.
Speaker: And then Lions and Vikings.
Speaker: Another one, Lions are making the playoffs.
Speaker: They have a 99% chance to win.
Speaker: This is not, or to make the playoffs.
Speaker: This is not going to change their chances or their odds to get into the postseason.
Speaker: But you look at the Vikings.
Speaker: Right now, 52%.
Speaker: They're about 50-50 shot to get in the postseason here.
Speaker: They've had a myriad of injuries.
Speaker: Obviously, Justin Jefferson in and out.
Speaker: Kirk Cousins with a season-ending Achilles injury.
Speaker: You have Josh Jobs come in off of Arizona.
Speaker: You know, Dobbs Sanity for about a month.
Speaker: It was fantastic.
Speaker: And then he, I mean, dumpster fire completely catapults into nothingness.
Speaker: And now we've got Nick Mullins.
Speaker: who isn't terrible.
Speaker: He's not the worst.
Speaker: I've always kind of been on the Mullins train.
Speaker: Part of that is because he played in San Francisco, and I could probably look like a competent quarterback under center with Kyle Shanahan and that San Francisco team.
Speaker: But the Vikings, 52.
Speaker: If they win, 79.
Speaker: If they lose, that goes down to 38%.
Speaker: they can beat this Lions team.
Speaker: I mean, Lions are hot, they're solid, but again, this is a Detroit team.
Speaker: We've seen them get pummeled by good teams before, and the Vikings aren't necessarily a good team, but they're not a bad team.
Speaker: They're kind of that litmus test for whether you're really good or not.
Speaker: I feel like the Lions, like we see all the talent that they have assembled, especially on the offensive side, but there's just this part of them that you can't trust them every week.
Speaker: And that's where I'm still at for them.
Speaker: I really like this team, and I
Speaker: I agree with you.
Speaker: I think, I mean, 99% chance they are making the playoffs.
Speaker: They're probably winning their division.
Speaker: I would say that's almost 99% chance as well.
Speaker: But there's still just this part of me that every week I can't 100% say, oh yeah, I think the Lions will win this week.
Speaker: Because I think they've been prone to kind of those slip-ups in playing teams that they should be able to handle, like the Vikings this week.
Speaker: should be able to handle but at the end of the day it's a road game it's in minnesota vikings are scrapping for a playoff spot i still haven't built that trust of the lions that okay they're a team that takes care of business
Speaker: And I don't like Jared Goff when blitzed and who blitzes more than anyone else in the league.
Speaker: It's Brian Flores and his defense.
Speaker: They're going to come after him.
Speaker: Brian Flores has had some solid game plans this season.
Speaker: That's a lot of the reason, honestly, that they've stayed in contention.
Speaker: Josh Dobbs was great, but you look at a lot of those games.
Speaker: Brian Flores and that defensive unit kept the other...
Speaker: offense off the field as much as he possibly could.
Speaker: And I think that could be the case here against Detroit.
Speaker: It's at Minnesota, a must win game for them.
Speaker: This is going to be fun.
Speaker: And it's a rivalry in division.
Speaker: We just saw Detroit.
Speaker: I mean, wow.
Speaker: Laporta had three touchdowns.
Speaker: Goff had five touchdowns throwing last week.
Speaker: It was an absolute monsoon of points for Detroit.
Speaker: We'll see if that can, that can change here and they can shift into a lower scoring gritty matchup.
Speaker: Cause that's what Minnesota is going to want with Nick Mullins.
Speaker: A couple more here before we get out of here on a quick behind-the-box score holiday edition episode, getting ready for week 16 of the Gridiron.
Speaker: Colts could go down to a 43% chance to make it if they lose to the Falcons.
Speaker: They'd have a 71% chance if they'd win.
Speaker: The Falcons are pretty much out of the playoffs after last week's embarrassing loss.
Speaker: To Carolina.
Speaker: Nine to seven.
Speaker: You lost to the Carolina Panthers.
Speaker: Nine to seven.
Speaker: So you don't deserve to make the playoffs, Atlanta and Arthur Smith.
Speaker: You're complete garbage.
Speaker: But, and you've ticked me off because I've tried to defend your team, Atlanta.
Speaker: I've tried to defend the Falcons.
Speaker: But Arthur Smith just wants to galaxy brain himself constantly from just handing it off to Bajon Robinson.
Speaker: It's asinine.
Speaker: So that's going to be a good game, though, because the Falcons still, for whatever reason, do tend to look semi-feisty.
Speaker: The Colts are obviously a beatable team.
Speaker: So another good game there, Indianapolis-Atlanta.
Speaker: I just want to add a statistic here.
Speaker: Please.
Speaker: In regards to Arthur Smith, because now that Brandon Saley's gone, and we got Josh McDaniels was fired earlier in the year.
Speaker: So two out of my three most hated coaches going into the year have been fired.
Speaker: So that means Arthur Smith is the last one that I just need to go.
Speaker: In which, when you look at this from Connor Allen on Twitter, it's an interesting look from Patton Athletics.
Speaker: They rank the offensive play callers after week 15 in terms of personnel and market efficiency with team constraints.
Speaker: Of course, top of the table, as you would suggest, would be Kyle Shanahan at plus.6 efficiency with the 49ers offense.
Speaker: Now, second to last is Bill O'Brien.
Speaker: At negative.5 efficiency.
Speaker: All right, that's second to last.
Speaker: Would you like to know where Arthur Smith ranks at, Mac?
Speaker: I'm assuming last.
Speaker: Yes, at negative one efficiency with the personnel that they have.
Speaker: Gosh, man.
Speaker: Now, what did he say this week talking about, you know, I'm going to –
Speaker: I'm going to die trying to figure out what happens.
Speaker: He's like, no, you don't need to die.
Speaker: You just need to hand it off to Bajon Robinson and throw it at Drake London.
Speaker: That's about it.
Speaker: That's all you don't know.
Speaker: No one needs to die.
Speaker: The stakes aren't that high.
Speaker: Just throw it and give it to your good players, all of which were drafted in the top 10.
Speaker: Unbelievable.
Speaker: And, Mac, like I was talking to one of my coworkers who's a tortured Falcons fan.
Speaker: Ugh, terrible.
Speaker: For the luxury of weapons that they have out of the backfield in Bijan, you know, they draft Bijan this year.
Speaker: Tyler Algier had a great year last year, so he's a promising guy.
Speaker: And you got Cordero Patterson, who everyone expected prior to the season that they would cut him or they would trade him.
Speaker: Instead of getting rid of one of those guys and trying to gain some capital back, whether it be a draft pick or maybe getting someone on the defensive side of the ball and maybe more of an area of need for them, rather than have these just countless weapons that you have to worry about getting them carries and getting them touches, you know, why did they keep a hold of all three of them?
Speaker: They don't need all three of them.
Speaker: It just creates a mosh pit out of the backfield to where you have weeks like last week where clear defense
Speaker: Clearing by far your best weapon on offense at B. John Robinson.
Speaker: Artie has proven that in 15 weeks of playing in the NFL.
Speaker: You get him his lowest snap count of the season.
Speaker: Unreal.
Speaker: Blasphemous.
Speaker: No, I mean, Jonu Smith's leading the tight end.
Speaker: As far as tight ends on the team, he's leading the team in receiving yards.
Speaker: Jonu Smith, you got Kyle Pitts right there.
Speaker: I like Jonu Smith.
Speaker: And if you want to give Arthur Smith credit for bringing back Jonu Smith into his offense and utilizing him the way he has, great.
Speaker: But then why hasn't he been able to use Kyle Pitts?
Speaker: Kyle Pitts.
Speaker: I cannot describe how crazy it is.
Speaker: Arthur Smith, he could be fired too before the season.
Speaker: Maybe not before the season is over.
Speaker: He should be.
Speaker: He should be.
Speaker: No, he should be.
Speaker: He really should be.
Speaker: And he's got a chance to make the playoffs still.
Speaker: You look at the Falcons here talking about this game.
Speaker: Right now, they have a current 11% chance.
Speaker: If they do win against Indianapolis, that goes up to 16.
Speaker: So it's not like it goes up a lot, but they're holding out hope.
Speaker: So we'll see what Arthur Smith does.
Speaker: I mean, I think that he probably needs to really almost win out for them to have a chance.
Speaker: They're 6-8 right now.
Speaker: This team's not 6-8.
Speaker: It's just not.
Speaker: You look at this roster.
Speaker: It's not built like a 6-8 team.
Speaker: They should be better.
Speaker: And yes, Desmond Ridder is terrible.
Speaker: He is awful.
Speaker: You also sat him for three games in a row with Taylor Heineke, and you lost all three of them.
Speaker: So I don't know.
Speaker: Which one is it?
Speaker: Is Taylor Heineke?
Speaker: All of it goes back to coaching and decision-making from Arthur Smith.
Speaker: The Saints are a dumpster, or the Falcons are a dumpster fire right now.
Speaker: They need to figure it out.
Speaker: So...
Speaker: Colts-Falcons is going to be a fun game.
Speaker: We'll see how that goes.
Speaker: Packers-Broncos, they're still both alive.
Speaker: They both play really crappy teams this week.
Speaker: The Packers play the Panthers.
Speaker: The Broncos play the Patriots.
Speaker: So both of them keeping their hopes alive.
Speaker: The Broncos, if they win, that goes up to a 31% chance.
Speaker: They're right now at 22%.
Speaker: The Packers at 19, if they win and beat the Panthers, which, my God, they should, they'll go up to 24% chance to win.
Speaker: And, man, that was a, I mean, talk about playoff implications.
Speaker: That last week, Green Bay and Tampa Bay, that was playoff implications.
Speaker: City, you know, if Tampa Bay loses, we're talking about Tampa Bay kind of the way we are talking about Atlanta right now, of like, wow, you really screwed the pooch there.
Speaker: And instead, they're leading the division at 7-7, and they have a very winnable game against Jacksonville this week.
Speaker: Which, by the way, I want to talk about Jacksonville in the offseason.
Speaker: Lots to talk about with them.
Speaker: We're a few weeks away from all of those sorts of pods, but I'm putting that on the docket for BTB listeners.
Speaker: Jacksonville's going to have a good episode worth of content to really discuss.
Speaker: And obviously, we'll see how the rest of their season pans out.
Speaker: They could change my thinking on that.
Speaker: Either way, I think a lot needs to be discussed with Jacksonville.
Speaker: Kind of disappointing right now.
Speaker: Not even kind of.
Speaker: It is.
Speaker: We could very well be talking about them, how they didn't make the playoffs.
Speaker: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker: And that's why I'm just holding out any sort of reservation for opinion there because we could be talking about them miraculously winning a round one playoff game and then going and making it close to the divisional.
Speaker: So it's the NFL.
Speaker: It's crazy.
Speaker: We've got a while.
Speaker: But man, 8-6 is rough.
Speaker: That's rough in an AFC South.
Speaker: That's not elite by any means.
Speaker: They were supposed to be the standard there.
Speaker: They could lose that division.
Speaker: They could lose that division.
Speaker: Ah, golly.
Speaker: And we talked about Cowboys-Dolphins.
Speaker: That game is going to be very fun.
Speaker: Lots of playoff implications.
Speaker: at Miami and then Ravens at Niners.
Speaker: Now, both these teams are making the playoffs.
Speaker: They're already clinched.
Speaker: It's happening.
Speaker: But as far as seeding's concerned, both the Niners for the first seed, less so for the Niners, but especially for the Ravens in that first seed, need to win.
Speaker: They've got teams at their heels.
Speaker: The Dolphins are at their heels.
Speaker: They're hoping that they could get a loss this week against the Cowboys, Baltimore is.
Speaker: The Chiefs are technically still on their heels.
Speaker: You look at the Ravens' schedule here.
Speaker: At San Francisco, they'll host Miami, then they'll host Pittsburgh.
Speaker: They lost to Pittsburgh earlier in the year.
Speaker: Those are three losable games.
Speaker: Mac, you mentioned right there the Dolphins and the Chiefs at their heels.
Speaker: They got the Browns at their heels.
Speaker: Yes, they do.
Speaker: You're right.
Speaker: You're right.
Speaker: That should not go unnamed.
Speaker: You're right.
Speaker: I mean, Bengals, I don't, you could say maybe the Bengals as well, but I think the Bengals are just trying to fight for a wild card spot at this point.
Speaker: But yes, the Browns are right there at the Dravenseels for this division, which I'm sure when we looked at all three of those teams going into the season now,
Speaker: With the Bengals, if you told us that Joe Burrow had a season-ending injury, we'd say, oh, the Ravens have this locked up.
Speaker: So the fact that the Browns are right there chipping at their heels and Bengals are still somehow in this fight...
Speaker: especially in the AFC North, you never know what can happen each week.
Speaker: Like the Steelers have looked dreadful, but guess what?
Speaker: Week 18 against the Ravens, they very well could be eliminated from the playoffs at that point.
Speaker: And they'll go into this game like, hey, we're going to beat the hell out of the Ravens.
Speaker: Just screw them over.
Speaker: Like this is our Super Bowl.
Speaker: Exactly.
Speaker: I mean, it happened a few years ago with Miami and New England.
Speaker: It was the year that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, the first year the Chiefs won the Super Bowl.
Speaker: So that's why I remember it so well.
Speaker: But it was week 18, Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Speaker: Just had to throw that in there.
Speaker: Ryan Fitzpatrick going down the field to beat Tom Brady and that Patriots team at the end of the game.
Speaker: And as Kansas City beat, you know, L.A., you got Kevin Harlan.
Speaker: I'm calling both games.
Speaker: And that game gave Kansas City the one seed and gave them the bye.
Speaker: That was a huge, you know, and it didn't mean anything for Ryan Fitzpatrick and that Dolphins team.
Speaker: But they wanted to beat their rival.
Speaker: They wanted to beat New England.
Speaker: They wanted to say, hey,
Speaker: Screw you.
Speaker: You're not getting this one seed.
Speaker: That's exactly what it could be for Pittsburgh, especially you've got Baltimore going to face the best team in football right now at San Francisco this week, Monday night.
Speaker: They're going to host a Dolphins team that could be coming off a loss that's going to need a dub in Miami.
Speaker: And then you've got the Steelers, who we just talked about.
Speaker: That game is always going to be just an absolute...
Speaker: punishment.
Speaker: It's going to be just so physical.
Speaker: It's going to be low scoring.
Speaker: It's going to be a grinded out sort of affair.
Speaker: I am pumped because I look at the chief schedule.
Speaker: Raiders host the bangles, host the Raiders, host the bangles at chargers.
Speaker: The chiefs have three wins.
Speaker: I mean, fingers crossed, knock on wood.
Speaker: The chiefs just do what they need to do in three weeks.
Speaker: The Ravens lose two.
Speaker: You're talking about a one seed again, an arrowhead invitational again for the AFC championship game.
Speaker: So long as Kadarius Toney lines up onside.
Speaker: And that'll do it for the Behind the Box Score podcast.
Speaker: Damn it.
Speaker: All right.
Speaker: No, and he's right.
Speaker: And then all hope has just evaporated immediately because I remember we have... Wait, I'm sorry, Mac.
Speaker: Which Super Bowl was that?
Speaker: The Chiefs... Mahomes' first Super Bowl?
Speaker: That was the year that Fitzpatrick did the Patriots?
Speaker: Yeah, Fitzpatrick, yeah.
Speaker: Yeah, Super Bowl 54.
Speaker: Sorry, just wasn't clear.
Speaker: Didn't hear that one, right?
Speaker: Yeah, Super Bowl 54.
Speaker: Yes.
Speaker: Yeah, you got it.
Speaker: Beat the San Francisco 49ers.
Speaker: Came back from 10 in that game.
Speaker: They beat the AFC Championship that year?
Speaker: Oh, yeah.
Speaker: We beat the Bills.
Speaker: Yeah, it was great.
Speaker: Actually, no, we beat the Titans.
Speaker: Excuse me.
Speaker: I was at that game.
Speaker: We beat Tennessee.
Speaker: My fault.
Speaker: We beat Tennessee.
Speaker: All right.
Speaker: Well, now I've shown my homerism, and this whole podcast was really just to talk about how the Chiefs could steal them with the first seed.
Speaker: You foiled my plans, Alex.
Speaker: You found me out.
Speaker: Fine.
Speaker: No, I'm just kidding.
Speaker: We'll see what happens.
Speaker: This is going to be, it's going to come down the wire.
Speaker: Really.
Speaker: That's what this episode is all about is there are moving pieces everywhere right now.
Speaker: Every game matters.
Speaker: Even if a team is out or even if a team is in, it still matters for seating.
Speaker: It still matters for draft pick.
Speaker: It still matters for job security.
Speaker: There's so many things to care about with these last three weeks and you can find all the coverage right here on the behind the box score podcast.
Speaker: Thank you so much for tuning in this week and we'll be back after the holidays.
Speaker: Have a Merry Christmas guys.
