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Napoli, Juventus, Inter Milan Or AC Milan - Who Are Early Scudetto Favourites? (Ep. 458)
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Napoli, Juventus, Inter Milan and AC Milan top the Serie A table after 6 matches with 2 points separating them begs the question which of the top 4 are early Scudetto favorites?
This is an extended clip from this week's free Monday episode of The Italian Football Podcast which is available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and Google podcasts.
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Transcript
Top Four Teams in Serie A
00:00:02
Speaker
Welcome to the look at the top of the table because we're six games into the season and after everything that has happened Napoli losing that first game 3-0 at Verona and everyone asking questions and then Inter having a few negative results losing the Derby Juventus going five and a half hours without scoring at one point and Milan being in in such a crisis at one point that Fonseca was on the brink of the sack before the Milan Derby. After all of that, all those
00:00:36
Speaker
apparent problems, the top four teams in Serie A, who are they? Napoli, Inter, Juventus and Milan. As we said, they would be. as i said All separated by two points. So, you know, it's ah it's kind of as expected. um I mean, from what we have seen,
00:00:53
Speaker
at this early stage, from the first six weeks of the
Juventus: Scudetto Favorites?
00:00:56
Speaker
season. and Who do you have your Scudetto money on now, Nemo? I still have the same Scudetto winners I had before the season began, and that's Juventus. For the simple reason that this is a league that you win by conceding the least. And when Juventus don't concede barely shots, let alone goals, then then I think the the money the writing's on the wall. And then I also look at Inter and Milan, who are working themselves, they're in good form, they concede far too much. They have seven goals conceded between them in six games. um There are evident problems defensively for both of these teams, obviously for various different reasons and various different ah kinds of issues, but they're there.
Form Check: Juventus and Napoli
00:01:46
Speaker
whilst Napoli and Juve look very, very solid and Juve look ridiculously solid for it to be this early on. So if I, you know, I have no reason to change my preseason prediction at all. I still think it's Juve in the Monopoly, separated by three to four points. Yeah, I think it's a very hard one to call. I mean, still really too early. I mean, these are these are ridiculously early predictions we're making here. But I think you can make a case for all four but the only one I'd be comfortable in in ruling out is Milan and because I think that they are
00:02:23
Speaker
I think there's less guarantees from from Milan than there are with the other three. um I think the other three, you can you there's guarantees with all of them. Juventus, they look so good defensively. They look structurally very, very good already. And they look like they you know they're going to control games, and that's going to make it difficult for opponents.
00:02:45
Speaker
um With Napoli, there is the Konce factor, of course, and that they're out of
Napoli's Advantage: Fewer Games?
00:02:52
Speaker
Europe. They're playing once a week, which Konce said himself, by the way, after the the win against Monza, he said that that's an undoubted advantage for for us. He then actually played down Napoli's title hopes, and which he does.
00:03:03
Speaker
and What a surprise. which What a surprise. He said, look, he says the the advantage for us is we're playing once a week. That's a huge advantage. He admitted that. But he said the disadvantage is that not by not playing in Europe, that shows that there's a, you know, there's a gap in quality. We have to make up 40 points. He is he is the master at doing this, isn't he? Like even from the outside, when it looks like is he mentally ill? Why is he doing crazy shit like that? I remember in when after the Borussia Dortmund game, when they were two and a half time And he's like, well, what do you expect from us? We bought players from Sasolo and Caliari. Yeah, Stefano Sensi and Nicolas Barrella. Like, do you know what I mean? He always does this. One thing he always does, always does, is when he joins a new club, is he he he he references the number of points they were behind the title
Conte and the Challenge of Expectations
00:03:50
Speaker
winners the season before. He does that every time. He did that at Juventus. He did that at Chelsea. And he did that at Inter as well. and Everywhere. He says, that's too much of a big gap. You can't expect to
00:04:01
Speaker
You're expecting me, poor little me, to do all of this you can't on my own. can't You can't close a 15 point or 20 point gap in one year. It's impossible. Then he wins the league with you. With about 25 points to spare. yeah that so ah I do think that, listen, and that is a huge, huge factor because, you know, this is it's that these players are overplayed. Players are are exhausted and tired already because they haven't had a rest for years in the summer.
00:04:28
Speaker
and then you're going to go you're going into this ridiculously long season extended Champions League we expect Juventus and into and Milan still should as well to qualify to get into the knockout stages to be playing into to February hopefully later March April we hope as well you know that all those games it's gonna it's gonna take me to take it's gonna take it at all and we know that Conker teams in February March are always that's when they really show you know, he grills them in the summer because he builds them long term and he keeps them going throughout the season. yeah There's no messing about with this guy. ah He doesn't. So that's why. So that's why Napoli are there. And then inter, I mean, listen, objectively on paper, inter have the best team, they have the best and the the deepest squad, they have a great manager, you know, so.
Milan: A Work in Progress
00:05:16
Speaker
on pay and they that the they're the they're the champions and they have the most experience out of all the teams so you know they are for me they are still the favorites but as I said I think you can make a case um for for for for all three of them and well for all four of them really but yeah i would but if you mean if i was if I have to rule one out I'd probably rule out Milan. no Look I'd rule out Milan for the simple reason like I said I feel still feel it's too much of a work in progress um I think maybe one year if if this continues this run of form and Milan continue to impress and continue to win and continue to grow gradually. and
00:05:52
Speaker
you know, the then then maybe in a year's time, we could talk about them as a Scudetto favorite, even who knows. But right now, I feel compared to the other three, they're still a little bit too far behind in their development, whilst for various reasons, of course,
Juventus' Strategy for Victory
00:06:10
Speaker
whilst with Juve Inter and Milan, Juve Inter and Napoli for very, very, very different differing reasons.
00:06:17
Speaker
they It's too close to call. But if you're asking me what I think, um i stand I still stand by what I said before the season. I still think that Juve are the favorites and will win because of the fact that they spent the most, it was the most active. They built something from scratch again, which creates enthusiasm. They have a coach who understands how to behave at Juve. They have a coach who understands that you win this area by being solid defensively and they have a coach who knows how to get the best out of them. I think with Juventus, Juventus lacked the experience of Napoli and Inter and that could that's also important that could that could count against them maybe late in the season if they are you know
00:07:04
Speaker
in the Hun, I do think that the Juventus do need, and I've said this, they need Vl Jović, they need their st striker to be to to to to show some consistency, and we just haven't had that and with Vl Jović, if they are. Otherwise, they are going to theyre going to struggle to to school to score the goals, and you can't go 1-0, 1-0 the whole way through the season. Eventually, you know eventually that that that you know it catches up with you.
00:07:32
Speaker
and you can't You can't have the second lowest XG in Serie A, which Juventus had before before this weekend, and be challenging up at the top and do that for a whole season. Eventually, it just it it it ends up playing out into reality. um So that's why Juventus need Vlovich to start showing some consistency, otherwise Juventus are going to draw too many games.
00:07:58
Speaker
and But so that that's what I need. so I agree
Inter's Defensive Dilemma
00:08:01
Speaker
100%. And for Inter, for me to, in order to see Inter repeating Escudetto, the Escudetto, you know, retain the Escudetto title, what I need to see from Inter is defensive solidity that we saw last season. When Inter were a unit in both phases, they're a unit in attack, but they're not a unit in defense. And that is worrying.
00:08:26
Speaker
It's been better, it's been, they're improving, consistently, slowly, slowly, but they need to start showing that kind of, for example, one way that this shows itself is the sheer number of goals that inter-concede in the last 15 minutes. Last season, they barely conceded in the last 15 minutes. So far, they've conceded, I think, six goals in the last 15 minutes out of the seven, and that is a concern.
00:08:54
Speaker
A team that concedes goals late on is not a team that wins championships. That's just how it is. um Because you can't always count on scoring four or five goals every single game um in order for it to not matter that you concede late on.
00:09:11
Speaker
So what I want to see from Intel in order to see them winning, or I think what they need to do in order to retain their title, they need to find whatever it is that is bothering them. Is it a physical issue still? Well, then that will disappear with time. But is it also a structural issue?
00:09:30
Speaker
these late goals they concede from that they concede is is a problem atinta and they need to sort that out in order for them to be to be to to win the league. It's it's really that simple. yeah There's always going to be things for for all teams that you need to so to play out and to come together or to avoid. yeah And the same comes with you know always, how far do you go in Europe? ah How many injuries do you get? you know if If you lose key players for for an extended period of time, then that's gonna affect your your title change you know if Inter were to lose Daltaro for five months or if Napoli were to lose Lukaku or Juventus were to lose Koopmeiners or do you know what I mean so these these are all things that that you know that are ah impossible to cope with. Yeah but yeah I understand what you're saying of course injuries plays into it but what I'm talking about is structural weaknesses. Juventus have a Vlawic thing or Douglas Luis thing.
00:10:23
Speaker
you know, we're still the jury still out on that. Milan have a maturity thing, you know, are where are Milan in in in the Fonseca project? Napoli have, you know, Juventus have also a lack of experience, but then you have Napoli and we know that Naples is a very volatile environment if and Conte is a very volatile human person, you know, if if one or two results go badly, how does he handle it? um Within the The biggest negative or structural question mark, I should say rather, I have is conceding late goals, conceding generally, but above all, conceding goals in the last 15 minutes. A team that wins championships does not concede goals that late. Yeah. Consistent. It might just be a, it might just be form.