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We have to stop doing this
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The Seattle Sounders came into their regular-season finale against the Portland Timbers absolutely flying, having won three straight and unbeaten in six. They started strong, too, jumping out to a 1-0 lead and looking by far the better team. But as has become all too familiar against the Timbers at home, one mistake snow-balled and they had to settle for a 1-1 tie. The Sounders still head into the playoffs on a seven-game unbeaten run and by most objective standards had a very good regular season but the vibes are a bit off. Jeremiah and Aaron discuss.
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Transcript
Sponsorship and Introductions
00:00:02
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Fullpool Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Fullpool was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
Will Bruin's New Role
00:00:25
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. now i get to do voice reads for the sounder at heart podcast network but
00:00:40
Speaker
about sell <unk> it
00:01:22
Speaker
go.
00:01:30
Speaker
since sounder hard commentary that you didn't take lo seriously
00:01:45
Speaker
We're recording on Tuesday, October 22nd, 2024.
Sounders vs. Timbers Recap
00:01:51
Speaker
I am your host, Jeremiah Shan. Joining me today are my co-host, Aaron Campo and our engineer, Lickett.
00:01:57
Speaker
Well, because it's 2024 and nothing can ever come too easy, the Sounders went ahead and capped off their regular season with a very frustrating 1-1 tie against the Timbers. The Sounders jumped out to a 1-0 lead and were looking reasonably dominant through about 65 minutes until a seemingly innocuous turnover sent the Timbers on a counter attack, which Antony finished off to make it 1-1. At that point in the game, the Sounders had outshot the Timbers 12-2.
00:02:24
Speaker
On the very next time down the field, Pedro de la Vega made it an electric run that ended with a shot which was barely saved. While fighting for the rebound, Obed Vargas fouled Dario Zapparic and showed a bit of displeasure. Referee Izmir Pekmich deemed it over the line and showed Vargas a second yellow.
00:02:43
Speaker
The Sounders played reasonably well over the final 20 odd minutes despite being down to man, but neither team could find a goal. The tie meant the Sounders dropped a fourth in the Western Conference, lost the Cascadia Cup on a tiebreaker, and most annoyingly ran their home winless streak against the Timbers to 11 games.
00:02:59
Speaker
On the balance, I thought the Sounders played pretty well. ah They still finished with 57 points and a plus 16 goal difference on that are on a seven game unbeaten run and are 12, two, and three during the second half of the season. These are undeniably good things and yet there seems to be a pretty heavy cloud of doubt hanging over this team.
Playoff Prospects
00:03:19
Speaker
Aaron, what do you make of both this game and sort of the general vibe given that things have gone pretty darn well during the second half of this season?
00:03:30
Speaker
Yeah, I'll start ah to be positive. I'll start with the the general vibe. I feel good about the Sounders chances in the playoffs. Nothing about this game changed that. um Okay. justusin I think it's a good team. I think the Sounders should handle them, especially having, you know, three games ah to spread out their bad luck over. ah And yeah, I mean, it's a, it's a bummer to finish fourth. I don't think this team is the fourth best team in the Western conference. I think they're, they're much closer to second or third. um And it's a bummer, obviously, to to not beat the timbers in a game I think they should have beat the timbers in. But you know I think as we've been saying for quite a while now, ah I think the Sanders can beat anybody in the West, except for LAFC. And I don't think they're incapable of beating LAFC. I just need to see them do it before I'm truly going to believe it. I think they've got a good chance on on making a run.
00:04:27
Speaker
ah Do I think they're going to, if they do make that run, do I think they have a great chance of beating Miami and in Miami? Probably not, but, um, you know, Columbus and Columbus, I suppose. Well, they've already done that. Um, right. Yeah. Slight, slightly different circumstances than the MLS cup final would likely be. But, uh, yeah, I, you know, I feel pretty good about the team. Uh, I feel pretty good about how things are shaking up going into the off season. I think there's a really, really strong team already to build on.
00:04:55
Speaker
Um, they've rescued what looked like the most miserable season in franchise history for the first couple of months. Um, I was pretty well convinced that Brian Schmetzer was done. I thought there was a good chance they were going to have to completely blow this team up and they've fully convinced me that they've got most of what they need to be a cup contender. Uh, and not just the team that I feel like could make a run at a cup, but you know, a legitimate cup contender, uh, and a team that I think could be really fun to watch in the club world cup next summer.
00:05:25
Speaker
And so yeah, I feel, I feel
Referee Controversies
00:05:27
Speaker
really good about it. I think this was always probably going to be a transitional year. I know that the, the, you know, the, uh, expectations were high coming into the year. Uh, the pundits really liked this team. I really liked this team, but I think in hindsight with that being 2020, there were some issues that they needed to figure out that just took them a while to figure out that was always going to make it difficult for this to really be a supporter shield type type year. But.
00:05:54
Speaker
You know, I think they got those issues figured out. And I think, crucially, the the guys that have been so critical to this team are coming back next year, most likely, and, you know, are not guys you're going to expect to to have that much of a drop off. This game specifically sucked ass. It was awful to to deal with, to watch. um yeah I said in the Discord that this game kind of reminded me of the Open Cup semi-final loss to LAFC, where I thought the Sounders played really well. I thought that they got legitimately screwed ah by a bad refereeing performance. And it doesn't make me feel any better because of the context of everything else that's happened in this rivalry over the last couple of years. I mean, I think that this would be a lot easier to swallow if it weren't for the Sounders being win less than 11 at home against the Timbers. It would be a lot easier to swallow if this didn't mean missing out on the Cascadia Cup. I think that the Sounders were clearly much better than the Timbers
00:06:52
Speaker
And, you know, i I'm not a, this is the ref's fault guy. And there were certainly opportunities for the Sounders to score that you would like them to take advantage of, but nothing you can say is going to convince me that if Obed Vargas doesn't get sent off, that the Sounders aren't going to go on and win that game. I think that they're clearly going to go on and win that game. They almost went on and won the game even with him getting sent off.
00:07:16
Speaker
Uh, and it's, it sucks. It's he Peknik was not, should not have been the center ref in that game. there wass a horrible performancement wasn't just the obed vacu call just an awful oh It was a Yeah. Well, let's, let's start there. Uh,
00:07:33
Speaker
And I think I would like to think we've earned the the right, for lack of a better term, to complain about a referee every now and then because we are, I think, pretty even keeled when it comes to talking about referee performances. And even in this game, I'm perfectly happy to admit to say that The referee didn't cost the Sounders this game. They had their own, they had plenty of opportunities to win this regardless of Vargas getting sent off. You know, ah the chance that De La Vega has right before the, that that I alluded to in the intro.
00:08:10
Speaker
I spoke to, spoke about in the intro. That was a great chance. I don't know if they think he should have finished that, but it was, you know, that was a ah great chance. Jordan Morris had two really good chances. I didn't, wasn't able to finish either one of those. There was, there was more, you know, actually it was funny. I went back and re-watched the game.
00:08:29
Speaker
yesterday and I was frankly I was surprised at just how good the sounders look and usually on rewatch I'm able to watch it with ah an emotional distance and not be sort of in my feelings again and I was surprised how much in my feelings I still was watching rewatching it in part because it was so close to being a signature type of performance you know uh it wasn't necessarily the best chance but knew who nearly scoring that that would would have been a wonder goal on the on the plate right before that. Albert Rusnak has a really good look at goal. There's a lot of chances in there. ah But on rewatch, the other thing that stuck out to me stood out to me was just how bad Pekmich was. He was awful. And
00:09:17
Speaker
yeah It's it's almost from the very beginning. I think in the first minute ah mascara tugs down an attacker from behind and He's not it's called a foul but he's he's not warned. There's no touch It's like that probably should have been a yellow early. I think it was in the first or second minute and I realize that you don't want to give a yellow that early, but that sort of sets a tone for the things that players are able to get away with. As the match goes on, there's numerous instances of players very visibly i dissenting on calls. Muscarra, again, in the 22nd, 23rd minute, ah it does almost the exact same thing that Obed Vargas ends up getting
00:10:01
Speaker
ah kicked out for. it ah Dario Zuparic on a breakaway ah just trucks Pedro de la Vega and then gets all animated about being upset that the the foul was called, nothing there. yeah And that was another incident. And then there was also the a bunch of these instances where the referee didn't play advantage even though there was a very clear advantage. ah One, there was two that were like three on two breaks or four on three breaks where the sounders are are running forward with numbers. And for some reason, they they they don't play advantage.
00:10:39
Speaker
which was baffling in in real time and is even worse on the rewatch. ah But it was just a very, you know, he he falls for sort of soft fouls repeatedly going both ways.
00:10:51
Speaker
ah You know, and then even after the the red card to Obed, Jonathan Rodriguez gets even more animated about a ah call than Vargas did. And again, not even so much as a warning, a verbal warning, let alone a card. ah The sounders ended up, I think, having a five yellow cards at one point to zero for for ah the timbers the timbers ended gettinging two towards the end of the game one of them was on the bench but it was awfully awfully ref game and i would have a hard time imagining that Uh, which I don't know, maybe speaks more to the body of his work, but it w it was genuinely one of the worst. Refereed games that I can remember from the sounders. And, and we don't like to talk about referring a lot on this show for a variety of reasons, but this one really, this one stood out to me. Yeah. I mean, I think that.
00:11:54
Speaker
And normally I feel like when we do talk about refereeing, we talk about, oh, there was a bad call and it really screwed the sounders, but ultimately it was just not a well-refereeed game and both sides benefited and both sides suffered.
Perceived Referee Bias
00:12:06
Speaker
And I don't think that was the case in this game. I think that it was so clearly slanted in the timbers favor for whatever reason. Oddly, yes. And and I know that you know there used to be, um there was a I think pretty well substantiated rumor that one of the things that that referees were trained on was don't let you know of crowds in places like Seattle impact your performance and don't let them pressure you. But it's not like Seattle is an intimidating place to play right now necessarily for referees. And ah I just, I don't know what it could have possibly been because it was, it was five yellow cards to zero at one point. And ah and the timbers had at that point, three more fouls than the sounders.
00:12:49
Speaker
yeah that' That's just, I don't understand how that's possible. I just, there's no way that that you as a referee can look at that and say, yep, I was right. That I made all of the right decisions here for it to lead to that. Paul Rothrock gets put in a headlock and and gets in the guy's face a little bit, gets a yellow card for it. Got to put him in a headlock, no yellow card. you know Just countless examples of stuff in this game and and it was just so frustrating to watch.
00:13:17
Speaker
Well, and it it it seemed like to me, again, this is on my rewatch is that probably from, you know, really the whole second half up and and especially right around the 60th minute or so, the game starts to amp up in terms of its intensity. There's more chirping at the referee. There's more intensity. There's, you know, the the incident with Rothrock and the Vander and a couple other players where you know, both teams are are getting preheated. And, and so on some level, I understand the referee's mindset of saying, okay, I need to do something to control this. But part of the reason that the the match was in the state that it was was he was so
00:14:00
Speaker
he was having such a hard time controlling it. And there were many moments where it felt like a card here or a card there would have helped sort of bring the temperature down. But when the cards are so ah unbalanced, it's not going to bring the temperature down. It's giving a sense that this is being uneven. And that's really what leads to ah players sort of taking matters into their own hands.
00:14:24
Speaker
ah I do think that one of the things that was pretty hard to escape is to me, it looked a lot like the referee probably forgot that he had just carted Obed a few minutes earlier for, I think actually appropriately delaying a restart. A hundred percent. Yeah. And that, that one's on Obed. I think that's a hundred percent on Obed. He, and he's not in a place where he needs to do that. Uh, and then I guess conversely,
00:14:52
Speaker
It there was several incidents where the sounders could have sort of done the same thing where the timbers were delaying a restart and they didn't sort of kick the ball into the, the, the, the defending player, which in this, in Obed's case, he lunges at the, like he makes a play at the ball. Like I don't.
00:15:10
Speaker
and don't really know what he's he thinks he's doing there other than sort of like being petulant but ah the senator had kind of plenty of times chances to be kind of like pull their own shithouse three and and draw at least try to draw a yellow ah but i don't know it was it was a very frustrating game on a lot of levels I will say that I saw this chatter a few different places. I'm not trying to pick on any one person, but there seems to be this narrative building that the sounders just don't care as much about this rivalry. And that's, that's part of why it's, it's become so lopsided, at least at, at Lumenfield. And I would really challenge anyone that has that opinion to watch, not just this game,
00:15:57
Speaker
But the two previous games, I don't think a lack of of passion or fire was at all what the sounder's problem was. I think they maybe lost their composure a few times ah throughout this rivalry, although really maybe only in this in this game. And I don't even know if I would totally say that. I think you can make a pretty decent case that the emotion of the rivalry led to Leo Chugin and Sennoff in last year's game.
00:16:26
Speaker
Sure. um and Yeah. Like, I think that was a huge part of it. Yeah.
Morris Under Pressure
00:16:31
Speaker
Yeah. No, I would I would agree. Yeah. And so I don't think I don't I don't think that's the problem. I do think that there's an element of just randomness and inexplicable. There's something inexplicable about what's going on at Lumen Field in terms of this rivalry. ah The Sounders were there were the better team. They had the better game plan. They were executing it better.
00:16:54
Speaker
And they just, they they couldn't convert the chances. ah And I guess that brings me to to my next point. You know, we were a couple weeks ago, maybe even last week. I don't remember exactly what we said, if we said anything about it last week, but we've been pretty high on Jordan Morris for the last four or five months. I think rightfully so. He's been very good. I thought he was mostly okay in this one.
00:17:20
Speaker
but he didn't, he had at least two really, really good chances in this one. He doesn't finish either one of them. You can you can argue that Potemus makes decent saves both times, but I don't, I do think you can, it sort of continues this,
00:17:40
Speaker
this sort of run that he's had where he's not scoring goals against the Sounders' biggest rivals or in their biggest games. And I guess, I don't know, how how much attention should we pay to that? I think that it's impossible not to notice, right? Like, I think the fact that he hasn't scored against Portland or LAFC is a noteworthy fact that you can't really escape. The question is whether you think it's predictive if there's something inherent to the moment that he is not up to. And I just think that there is a lot of evidence that he has scored big goals and big games throughout his career. It makes me think it's just, I lean towards a statistical fluke. I think that he's, I mean, you can't score in every game and sometimes patterns happen. I think it's similar to the looking for explanations for why the Sounders can't win at home.
00:18:36
Speaker
A lot of it is just random luck right against the timbers. right there There are elements to the rivalry that I think are a factor they've at times matched up really poorly with Portland. But I think it's also just randomness right in search of an explanation. And I think that that's most likely what Jordan not squirting against the timbers or LAFC comes down to. um But I don't blame anyone for for not finding that explanation satisfactory. I think that it's You know, strikers are confidence players and I think Jordan has a reputation, not entirely unfair, although in my opinion, overstated of, of being a guy who needs to be high on confidence to be effective. So maybe that's a factor, right? Like maybe he's pressing too hard in these games, but.
00:19:23
Speaker
I don't know, I think that he's just as likely to score in the next game out against Portland or LAFC as he is in any other game, frankly. um Maybe not against LAFC, but you know. I will say that the thing that is encouraging about Jordan's play overall is that in the past when he's sort of hit these cold streaks. And I don't want to overstate it. He hasn't scored in four games. It's not like he's fallen apart. But what he has been able to do is be dangerous at least. Like there was a there was there's been for a lot of his career when he would sort of go into these cold streaks, he'd sort of disappear and not be super involved in games and and not really be putting any like really impacting them.
00:20:07
Speaker
And he was he was dangerous in this game. You know, he was he was putting himself in dangerous spots. He came very, you know, he probably had three decent looks at at chances. One of them, he wasn't able to get anything on. ah There was a and ah great run that Obed Vargas made shortly before he got ejected. They put a cross through the box. Actually wasn't that clear. It was in the second half. And and Morris maybe could have made a little bit better play on it.
00:20:35
Speaker
But Paul Rothrock's at the back post and he ends up not getting quite around it and and puts it wide. But that was, I mean, I guess I bring it up because I think Jordan was dangerous in this game. I thought he was impactful. He just wasn't, he didn't finish his chances. And that's, you know, that's that's frustrating, but that he's getting, he's he's still getting himself into these positions. If you're getting yourself into dangerous positions,
00:21:03
Speaker
I mean, i'm I'm a guy who believes in, you know, and you it's gonna even out. Like you're gonna you're gonna finish at the rate that you're probably gonna finish at. It's about how many chances you can create. And he's he's getting chances. ah So um I wouldn't say i'm I'm worried about him. I do think that to the degree that there were doubts before he went on this run,
00:21:27
Speaker
theyre those doubts are going to persist until he is scoring big goals and big games on a regular basis. And I do think that a performance like this potentially does influence what kind of player the Sounders look for. I'm not necessarily defending that position, but I do think it it sort of emboldens folks both inside and outside the organization who say the Sounders need a number nine who can score in these games. ah The folly, I think, is you can't really program for that.
00:22:00
Speaker
right thank you for listening to the soundri heart podcast network which now includes no suniaes loing scorchers and the cooler yield We've been independent since August of 2023, but need your support to make sure it continues. Although this podcast is free, it's only made possible by your continued support. Memberships start as low as $25 a year, which not only helps make podcasts like this one happen, but also gets you access to everything we produce. If you're able to support us at higher levels, starting at $75 a year, you gain access to a host of other perks
00:22:34
Speaker
Most notably, entry into our members-only Discord, where the smartest, funniest, and most engaged commenters share their thoughts and ideas. To find out more, just visit centeratheart.com and click the subscribe button in the top right corner. Thanks for listening. Yeah, I mean, Obafemi Martins never scored in the playoffs. Freddie Monteiro didn't score in the playoffs.
00:22:57
Speaker
I was bitching about this- Jordan has eight playoff goals, it should be said. Right. And several huge playoff goals. I was bitching about this mindset when Freddie Monteiro was on the team, right? This idea that he just isn't capable of doing it in the big games. Because I just don't... There's just not a lot of evidence to back up the idea that that's a thing, right? Again, it's just random looking for a narrative and people are happy to slap one on it.
00:23:26
Speaker
Um, but you know, I'm just, I'm just one man and I don't have the power to ah dictate the sounder's roster decisions. So if that's why they make the decision to pursue a nine, then, you know.
00:23:39
Speaker
What am I going to do about it, right? and Right. Uh, I will say one, one other one positive is, you know, sort of a similar knock has been on Albert Rusnak. He does pick up the assist in this one on a, on a corner, no less. The sounders have sneakily gotten pretty good on corners. they They aren't necessarily scoring a ton, but they are scoring a lot offset pieces. And this was again, an example of them.
00:24:07
Speaker
dialing one up and and being able to score in ways that they certainly weren't scoring last year. And I thought that's encouraging.
Rusnak's Ambitions
00:24:14
Speaker
That was his 16th assist in the regular season that ties him with Nico Ledero for the most assists in a single season for the Sounders. He also has 19 assists across all competitions. I believe that is a ah record for all competition assists. He also has 10 or 11 goals across all but competitions. I think that makes him just the second sounder to hit 30 all competition goals and assists in a season. Uh, Obafey Martins is the other player he finished on 32 in 2014. So it's entirely possible that Rusenak is going to end up with the most productive season in sounder's history.
00:24:54
Speaker
Uh, today we, we actually talked to him at training and he, he on his own brought up that, you know, this was a contract year for him. I asked him if, you know, what the status of of that is. And he seemed to be comfortable with the situation. I, my understanding is that he wants to be a designated player.
00:25:16
Speaker
He expects to be a designated player. I think you can, it's tough to argue that he doesn't deserve to be one. I think where the negotiations are going to come in is the Sounders, I think are going to try to convince him to not be a designated player or to be on a max Tam with the hope of bringing someone else in. I have no idea how.
00:25:36
Speaker
That's going to go like I really don't know. I don't, I don't know how likely they are to be able to sell them on that, but I think the centers are going to try. So we'll, we'll see. But I mean, I, at this point, I think you're, you're really making a pretty risky gamble. If you let him walk.
00:25:59
Speaker
over like I think it's fine to negotiate you if you can convince them to get below max 10 or ah ah automatic DP more power to you, but I think the sounders are pretty limited to negotiating in the faith of we want to be able to add even more. Will you help us? I don't think they're going to be able to play hardball and say, if you don't sign on as a max tan, we're you're just going to have to let you walk. I think that would be a huge mistake by the Sounders because I don't think you can, you can, I mean, it's beyond you any reasonable hope that you're going to bring in a guy to replace his 30 goal contributions.
00:26:41
Speaker
Yeah. you Unless the thing is, is that the only scenario in which it makes sense to let him walk is you know exactly who you want to replace him with and you were extremely confident you can get them signed. If you can do that, why even offer him the max TAM deal? Just say, Hey, thanks man. Go get paid somewhere else.
00:27:02
Speaker
I don't, I, there's always the possibility that a player cares more about, you know, getting a ring or or whatever it is and is willing to to take, you know, ah a pay cut or a home down discount or whatever you want to call it in order to facilitate that. I think you tend to see that more in sports where guys are making 20, 30, $40 million dollars right over, you know, the life of a contractor, even in a single year, then where you know guys are making two and a half to $3 million. dollars um so And it's probably his last big contract. that's yeah Yeah, absolutely. And it it doesn't hurt to ask, right? And maybe that is more important to him. If I were him, I would definitely say, hey, i'm i'm ah I'm a designated player. I know what I'm worth. And I'd love to be here, but you're going to have to pay me what I'm worth.
00:27:52
Speaker
Um, because like to me of the hometown discount still makes him a DP based on, on the way he's performed the season. And he knows he's going to be able to get more than he's getting now on the open market, I would assume. Right. So, I mean, I would think he can reasonably go into the open market and expect a raise on his current salary, which is about $2.2 million. dollars Like it doesn't, it wouldn't be shocking to me to see a.
00:28:18
Speaker
any number of teams come in and off from 2.5 million, especially teams who aren't likely to go out and spend transfer fees on three designated players. Like if you, if you can get a, you know, a 10 and 10 guy without having to pay a transfer fee, there are a lot of teams in this league who are more than happy to do that. Yeah. And I guess the question I have is, are the Sounders committed to having only two designated players?
00:28:47
Speaker
And, you know, taking the the benefits that you get from, from operating that way, because if they are, they need to let real snack walk and and go pay a transfer fee and get a prime time type player. If they're not, you've still got room to add that guy if if Albert's a DP. Um, so yeah, I, like you said, there's no harm in asking, but if they want them back,
00:29:13
Speaker
they they need to be prepared to to give them a DP spot, I think. Yeah, and and I would say I'm i'm feeling good about this this matchup with Houston. I don't know. I honestly don't know if if this is a better or worse matchup than if they had gotten Minnesota United, which is who they would have gotten if they finished third.
00:29:30
Speaker
Minnesota United has been, aside from the Sounders, probably the hottest team in MLS over the last couple months. ah The Sounders have a great record against Minnesota, but it does, to me, it feels like a very tenuous sort of dominance that they've had over Minnesota. It's not like they're blowing Minnesota out of games and you know like they just beat them three to two a couple months ago and that was a back and forth game.
00:29:57
Speaker
could have gone either way. The Sounders got beat them twice at home earlier this year. That was really a different Minnesota United team. they you know Ever since the summer transfer, ever since Yeboah has gotten integrated into their team, they've been much, much better. So instead they'll play Houston Dynamo, a team another team that they have dominated historically at home. I don't think they've ever lost to the Dynamo at home.
00:30:22
Speaker
i believe they have a seven game winning streak at Bloomfield against the Dynamo. And I don't know that they haven't exactly been blowing the Dynamo out either, but it kind of feels like a good matchup for them in that the Dynamo want the ball and they aren't going to just sit back and defend. And that's who the Sounders have mostly struggled against.
00:30:50
Speaker
So I, and they aren't necessarily a team that's going to beat you on the counter attack. They're, they're going to beat you more through, you know, good possession. They do have some dynamic players. They didn't have to, they, I don't think they, they played Hector Herrera either time they played them this year. They didn't have to play against Ezekiel Ponce, who is their new designated player. So there's definitely some challenges with Houston, but I mean, if you can't beat Houston, you're not winning MLS Cup. That's for sure.
00:31:17
Speaker
Right. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, I think that this is a matchup I would be pretty nervous about if they were going into it and it was one leg. Um, you know, it's one winter go home, but, but I think over three legs, I think the sounders talent advantage is going to get them where they need to go. Uh, Houston is a good team though. I mean, it's, I think that there, there's a handful of teams in MLS that are just always kind of there. That are, it's easy to overlook them when they're actually legitimately pretty good. And I think Houston is, is legitimately pretty good. It's going to be a tough series. I doubt the sounders get out in two games.
00:31:50
Speaker
um especially having to go, you know, go down to Houston, although they they have been pretty mediocre at home this year. um Yeah. But yeah, I feel as good about this as I think I would pretty much any team they could have plausibly gotten. I would feel much better about playing. um You know, Vancouver, right? But ah I still I still feel pretty confident in this one. And like you said, if they're not going to beat Houston, they're they're not going to win the MLS Cup. And that I guess the the bummer of the draw to the degree that to this degree is that they ended up on the same side. Like ah well for a long time, it looked like, okay, finishing fourth wouldn't be so bad because at least they would avoid LAFC. Cause it looked like LA galaxy. We're going to win, win the league or win the Western conference. And they were up until the hundred and first minute of their game against Houston dynamo, where Daniel stairs ends up scoring a miracle goal to to tip
00:32:50
Speaker
the galaxy right at the end there and it flips the standings. So LAFC ends up winning ah finishing first in the in the Western Conference.
Playoff Predictions
00:32:58
Speaker
And so that means that the Sounders would play, but most likely play LAFC in the Western Conference semi-finals. And I don't know, I think we've talked about this a lot, but it it does kind of feel like, look, LAFC is the team you know you have to go through. Yeah.
00:33:17
Speaker
Why not just get it over with early? And, you know, and not I'm not loving the idea of having to go to Bank of California Stadium, but or BMO, I guess it's called BMO now. ah and wait Like you may as well. Right. Right. here Here's the thing that bothers me more than anything about this scenario that the Sounders are in. Right. Is that let's say a miracle happens and LFC gets knocked out of the first round.
00:33:44
Speaker
More than likely, that means you are playing Portland in Seattle. but So you avoid LFC and you've got the other thing that frankly has been a pain in the ass for a lot longer than LFC has. yeah The sounders have not. LFC didn't exist the last time the sounders beat the tempers at home. Oh, my God. You're not right. No, no, no, no, no, no. That was the same year. Was it the same year? That is only the your first year. earlier see as Well,
00:34:14
Speaker
I get that do you yeah a fair point though. um And honestly, I think I might rather play at LAFC than host Portland in the Western Conference semi-finals, even though on paper we would, I'm sure the Sounders should be the favorites against the Timbers at home. But I've come to terms with LAFC knocking us out of the playoffs. I cannot deal with Portland knocking us out of the playoffs. It would be an unbearable off season to get knocked out. And honestly, beating them would not really
00:34:47
Speaker
It'd be like, okay, so what you beat, you beat the ninth or 19. Like there's not going to be no, there's no, it is, I will say that's one of the the most frustrating things about the the timbers. driver is I don't feel like this is a two way street, uh, like trash talk thing because when we, when we beat the timbers, it's sort of like, yeah, you're supposed to beat the timbers. Yeah. When you don't, it's like the end of the world.
00:35:10
Speaker
Right. Yeah, it it does kind of suck. I mean, it's the it's the curse of high expectations, right? But yeah, it is a bummer to not feel like we can enjoy the wins as much. um No, it's it's been a really weird. I mean, I guess it's been like this for a while, but it. it like i'm i i I feel like after every every loss that Sounders have had, and they haven't had a lot recently, feels like the world is collapsing. and Admittedly, those that's partly because they had they had two losses in the second half of the season. One was against Portland, one was against LAFC. They had three ties.
00:35:46
Speaker
Uh, Houston. Okay. That was a, that was fine. But then there was the tie against the earthquakes at home, which yeah by the way, that did end up costing the sounders seating. Uh, like we we predicted it would. And then there was this tie and, you know, so like four of those five instances of drop points in the second half of the season were painful for one reason or another.
00:36:09
Speaker
They were not mundane dropped points. they were They were dropped points that came with all sorts of annoying ass narratives. Yeah, I mean, if you give the sounders another four points, they're comfortably in third place, right?
00:36:25
Speaker
um And they should have had those four points. Like there's yeah there's no question in my mind that they should have those four points. And it's, you know, every season, there's a handful of the results you can that were close that you can point to and say off they'd have that they would have been.
00:36:40
Speaker
But I think in this case, it's San Jose at home. It's the timbers at home, right? Yeah, like you've got to hang on. And well ba and point I think what's also frustrating about this is let's just say we were to flop the results against the rapids and the timbers in these last few weeks, right? If the Sounders had tied the rapids,
00:37:04
Speaker
No one would have been upset about that. It would have been fine. It was a way, right? Right. It was a way. And if they so if you if you have a 1-1 tie against the Rapids and you have a 1-0 win over the Timbers, you're effectively in the exact same position with the difference being that you win the Cascadia Cup and you ah And you finish, you still finish fourth, but the, I feel like the emotions around every, like the Cascadia cup is not why the emotions would be better. It would just be getting the monkey off your back of beating the timbers. And I don't know, I guess maybe in that sense, maybe that that's what that they need that to exercise. This is they need to beat the numbers in, in ah the playoffs, but man, the the downsides there feel way too high. I don't know. Um,
00:37:53
Speaker
I don't know what to make of of this. I do think the sounders, I like the sounders chances in the playoffs as much as, you know, really ever. yeah Which is to say, I don't know, I probably give them something like a five to 10% chance to to win this thing.
00:38:10
Speaker
but's That's about as good as you're going to get, honestly. i mean it's yeah ah This season, as I've been saying for a while, this season kind of reminds me of 2019 in a lot of ways, and yeah nobody gave the Sounders a chance to beat LAFC and LA in 2019 either. and Right. i mean I would say the the Sounders were much, much bigger underdogs going into LAFC in 2019 than they would be this year. Yeah.
00:38:35
Speaker
Yeah. Like they, like it's hard to overstate how good LAFC were in 2019. Yeah. One of the best teams in MLS history for like, without, I think but without question. Yeah. You know what? I think you're right. I think LAFC came into league in 2018.
00:38:53
Speaker
Yeah, I'm, I'm almost positive as 2018. I think you're, yeah, I, I think it was. yes Now they think about it. Cause I'm pretty sure that they had their great season their second year, but, because um, 2017 was the last time the Sounders beat Portland and home. And that was the last time Portland won the West in the in the regular season.
00:39:11
Speaker
Crazy how that works, right? Maybe Portland has to be good for us to, maybe that's the key. Yeah. Um, But the yeah the other knock on from the from the Vargas card was that he's now unavailable in the first game against Houston. And that's no a lot of people have asked that you can't appeal. ah First of all, you can't appeal. I don't think you can ever appeal yellow cards. But in this case, the centers really wouldn't have any grounds for it because i I think most agree that by the letter of the law,
00:39:46
Speaker
It's well within the referee's discretion to card Obed there. It's just in the way that the game was being refereed and it's sort of like you don't want to see a referee throw a player out for dissent, especially when he's not like in his face. The referee was 30 yards away. ah And it didn't look like Obed said anything particularly egregious. So yeah, there was definitely like an undercurrent after the game of Well, you you know, you don't know what he said. You don't. He could have said something horrible. And I'm pretty sure that if that had been the case, the referee would have mentioned something about it and his bullshit statement that he gave after the game in response to your question. um That was you, right? That but iset you were the poor. Yeah, I was. Yeah. Yeah. so Yeah. I didn't want to get um'm I'm actually I don't mind getting into it. ah That is that was another annoying thing. You know, I submitted a question to the referee and I just basically said, what was the difference between
00:40:39
Speaker
Obed's dissent and all the other instances of dissent and he said, Obed dissented. right like yeah like yeah he He did it because i said like it was worse because I said it was worse. That's why. The level of disdain that MLS referees have for any questioning of of their decisions does not befit their place in the world of referees.
00:41:04
Speaker
No. And I do think, I do think that MLS referees are generally better than folks give them credit for. Sure. Sure. But a lot of referees in more high profile sports are much more willing to explain their decisions. Way more. Yeah. I mean, you just, yeah, absolutely. There's, uh,
00:41:20
Speaker
yeah We see this in virtually every other American sport where the referees have some accountability in that they are asked to answer questions. and you know It's not on a written piece of paper, it's like an actual interview. and you know the The way that the system used to be set up was that you would submit a question and then you would have an opportunity to talk to the referee if they felt like it.
00:41:43
Speaker
And usually the referee would decline, ah but at least there was an opportunity. i I think as much as I don't want to have to go interview referees when I could be interviewing players or coaches, I do think the system would work a lot better if you, even if you had to submit your questions beforehand, if there was a mandatory sort of like opportunity to interview the referee and right ask him follow-ups. I understand why a referee is not analogous to a coach or a player and and why saying, well, if the players have to explain things, coaches have to explain things, why don't why don't the referees? I don't think that that's a perfectly analogous situation, but it is just
00:42:32
Speaker
i Because I feel like there are certainly cases, I don't think this is one of them. I don't think there's anything you could say to me that that could convince me that the yellow card there was the right decision. But there are certainly cases where there's probably a totally reasonable explanation for why a referee makes a call that's controversial.
00:42:50
Speaker
And I think it would really do the the reputation of the referees a lot of good if they would actually answer those questions. And they would actually explain their reasoning, but they they seem to be much more in the camp of and MLB umpires of just being like, well, we're just like the arbiters of justice. And and that's the way it goes. And that's, I think, really unfortunate.
00:43:09
Speaker
it It is definitely unfortunate and it's annoying, but it's the it's where we are right now.
Vargas' Suspension Impact
00:43:15
Speaker
um But i I guess I got sidetracked, but I was saying Obed is going to be out for this game. Which probably means Zhao Paolo is going to go back into the formation. It'll be interesting to see how the sounders handled that because Christian Roldan has been starting in places, Zhao Paolo, basically for the last couple of months and I imagine that Jow Paulo will move back into this more of the the the sixth position and Christian will be sort of his old position, which was ah more of a of an eight.
00:43:54
Speaker
And i I just really have liked what we've seen from Christian as a as ah defensive midfielder to the point where I'm totally comfortable going into next season with him as the starting starting there. ah But I will note this is a different position for him than he played previously when he was in the center midfield, which was much more of an offensive player than he has been asked to be lately, but he's looked like he's played this position his whole life, frankly. Yeah, I i'm i understand the both of the reasons that you expect Chualpaolo to be the guy that gets the nod and also
00:44:36
Speaker
to lesser degree why he's the guy that's going to get the nod, but i he's been so good at that position. And, you know, I'm hoping that with some time to rest up and heal up, João Paulo is a little sharper than he had been before he got, you know, ah injured and then relegated to the bench.
00:44:54
Speaker
But I mean, I would not complain if we saw a 10 CO. I mean, I wouldn't either. But he's in concussion protocol right now. that's why That's right. He wasn't available. And it's unclear when he's going to get back into training. ah You know, at this point, Brian was confident that he or he's reasonably confident that he'd be available for Monday's game. But if he's not training by Friday, I don't know how realistic it is that he's going to want to start him.
00:45:24
Speaker
Yeah, that's that's completely reasonable. i'd I'd forgotten about that. Yeah, i mean i think that's um i I think that a lot of the things that made Christian not as attractive as ah of an option at the right midfield spot this season as he has has been in the past are probably you similar to maybe why he's more well suited to the sixth and an eighth at this point. But i I fully have confidence he can do a job.
00:45:51
Speaker
um And, you know, I think that his passing has been so good and that's something that's going to translate pretty well. I don't, you know, I don't think there's any reason to to think that his passing is going to suffer from being slightly more advanced. um And he's not going to have to do as much disrupting. And, and I think the way that the eight plays and in the Sounders attack, he's, it's not like he's going to be.
00:46:13
Speaker
crashing the box on every play, right? Like he's, right the the eight in the sounder system plays a little more withdrawn just because they have a 10 occupying the the more advanced space. So i'm I'm totally comfortable with that central midfield, assuming that Joe Apollo is healthy and and sharp and good to go. Yeah, yeah. I i am i am too. ah Well, I think that covers basically most of the stuff. So anything I'm forgetting here?
00:46:43
Speaker
I don't think so. um Yeah, I ah it was nice and cathartic to bitch about the referee. Now we can move on. But right yeah know of of this hopefully the last time we spend that much of a show talking about the referee. Yeah. Yeah, it'll be interesting to also to see how this ah this playoff game between the Whitecaps and Timbers works out. I suppose we're we're probably Whitecaps fans, I suppose, aren't we?
00:47:10
Speaker
I think so. I think that of the two, they probably have a better chance to to knock off LAFC. I don't think either team has a great chance, but you know the Whitecaps played them pretty close the last time they played up in Vancouver. ah They lost, so maybe not super encouraging, but I just think they're a little bit better of a matchup. I don't know. But Portland just scores so much that the chaos they can create is Uh, you know, definitely a, an X factor, but I don't think either of these teams have a chance in L frankly. So yeah i'm yeah, I'm a white caps fan in the sense that I want Portland to be done for the year. So fair enough. Fair enough. Well, uh, that's probably a good place to to call the show then. Uh, thank you to our sponsor full pool wines. Thank you to our subscribers. Once again, I think we're going to try to do a live show.
00:48:06
Speaker
maybe for the away leg of the playoff game. ah Basically, we would probably do a watch party and then ah a live post game show. So stay tuned for details on that. I wanted to encourage everyone, we we created a new ah RSS feed for the show. We are going to be discontinuing the old ah private RSS feed that is ah just go into the story. there's There's every story, every time we post one of our our podcasts on the site, there's information on how to follow that. I want to encourage everyone to follow that if you're a paid subscriber, you you can get that.
00:48:46
Speaker
And with all that said, thank you for for supporting us through another regular season. Of course, we're going to be covering the playoffs as well, so we're not going anywhere, but always like to say that to to folks. um And with that, I am Jeremiah O'Shan, signing off for Eric Campo and Lickit. This is Noah's Adiatus, and remember, you'll never leave out alone.
00:49:46
Speaker
on