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Sun Belt Football 2024: Week 3 Recap, Week 4 Preview
97 Plays6 months ago
Brian and Zeke return to discuss the week 3 action in the Sun Belt, including Georgia State's huge win over Vanderbilt, Appalachian State's victory over East Carolina, and Texas State's narrow loss to Arizona State.
In week 4, the two discuss several prominent games, including App State's matchup with South Alabama to kick off conference play and a Bayou showdown between Louisiana and Tulane.
Email the show at warmweatherfans@gmail.com
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Transcript
Introduction and Engagement
00:00:15
Speaker
Welcome everybody into another edition of Warm Weather Fans, the Sunbelt podcast. My name is Brian Stone, joined solo this week by Zeke Palermo. Matt Mieges is wrapped up with something. I don't really understand what ah Zeke, before we kind of get into pleasantries, I want to do some announcements or just the things we do at the end of the show at the beginning is I don't, I don't.
00:00:40
Speaker
Frankly think people are listening all the way to the very end number one if anybody ever has questions or or wants to write into the show please do so warm weather fans at gmail dot.com. ah We'd love to field questions comments you know anything from the people that listen to this.
00:00:56
Speaker
ah as well as make sure you're following all of our socials. We are also now on YouTube. All of our episodes are available via video as well. Warm Weather Fans. ah It's youtube dot.com slash at warm weather fans is the actual URL.
Platform Availability and Solo Hosting
00:01:12
Speaker
You type that in and I also include the discrete in that all of that information, the audio description of each podcast catcher. So you know no matter if you're listening to it on Apple, Spotify, you should be able to find all that information pretty easily. ah Yeah, once again, b Brian Stone here. Zeke, how are you doing today?
00:01:32
Speaker
I'm doing good. I dodged a bullet not having Matt here this week I I was prepared to have my defenses high as we talked about last week he and I are two extremes and then Brian you land somewhere in the middle on most takes ah so I I Can be a little more on the offensive this week like I was last time I i was ready to play some some very very defensive You know, work my way out of some situations today. So.
Debates and Game Discussions
00:02:05
Speaker
Well, it's not that I'm like in the middle on most takes, it's that like I will say something that I feel like everyone universally agrees with. And one of you takes the opposite side of that. Like ah and like last week when Matt was giving like a full throated defense of Butch Jones's coaching career, I'm like, dude, you're never going to sell me on this. Like, I'm sorry. I like that. I like the offense they had.
00:02:29
Speaker
You'll never, you're never going to sell me on but Jones is actually a great coach. He just has never really proved it. And I'm like, wow, what a case to be made. Um, anyway, we're here to talk about the week three games in the Sunbelt. We will make picks on week four against the spread over unders, all of that sort of jazz. Uh, let's, let's go ahead and get started here. So.
00:02:52
Speaker
Last Thursday, September 12th, we had Texas State play Arizona State in San Marcos, Arizona State. Comes away late with the 3128 win. um Zeke, I know that with your new job set up that you know you work like Knights and are on the ah the high school sports beat, so I don't know if you are working that night or if you caught the full version of this game, but I watched probably.
00:03:23
Speaker
80% of this game. um i I just was like, Bill's dolphins. I've seen this play out a million times. This just doesn't have my attention. I really liked what I saw out of both of these teams on Thursday. I think they're both really fun teams. I had not watched any Arizona State up to this point, because frankly, like we're not a What, what a conference are they even in anymore? American big 12? I think they might be big 12 these days. Okay. So I, I, I don't watch a lot of big 12 football anymore. Not since, you know, the Texas, Oklahoma, all of that blew up. I was, I was really impressed by, by the way, both teams played. Honestly, you would never see it on the,
00:04:11
Speaker
on the like page but I thought despite all the offense this game had I thought the defensive lines did a great job of kind of getting in both Sam Leavitt and Jordan McLeod's faces. I felt like even on plays where okay so Texas State had three sacks as a team Arizona State only had one but it felt like even when these teams were making positive plays, someone was having to dodge an oncoming rusher in order to get a throw off. And I was like, you know, as offensive as this game is, the defensive lines have really kind of controlled a lot of what's gone on here. So I know you're probably still reeling. You were you were are all in for a, you know, full 12 and O season Sunbelt sweep.
00:05:01
Speaker
now Now we're at 11 and 1. The scenario the ah that I sort of laid out last week with the loss to Arizona State versus Boise's loss to Oregon is now in play as well.
00:05:13
Speaker
Take me through kind of the stages of grief you went through as this game was unfolding. So this was, as you mentioned, running at the same time as Bill's Dolphins, which had my eyes as a Bill's fan. So I was flipping between the two. um But very quickly, I realized that this was going to be the more interesting game. ah to a you know God bless that guy's health, exposed himself as the fraud that I've known he is.
00:05:40
Speaker
um Really? but I thought it was more that he turned his own brain brain into goop, but I digress. I like your your your take there on the defensive lines ah because I thought Texas State had several opportunities late in the game. They had two drives late in the fourth that probably could have ended up in ah touchdown had it not been for Arizona State's defensive line. ah Jordan McLeod loaded up on one of those late drives and threw like a 40 yard pass that was frankly not a great pass right into Arizona State defensive back to turn the ball over.
00:06:24
Speaker
uh and then on the second uh of the two fourth quarter late fourth quarter drives i think it was their last possession of the game uh fourth and maybe four after calling a pitch play out of the shotgun on third and two which i thought was kind of a bizarre play call um Arizona State doesn't give Jordan McLeod time for much to develop he has to throw to a covered receiver and ah Falls incomplete. I'm still on Texas State to win the belt um That doesn't change for me here. I think that
00:06:59
Speaker
Ultimately, what spelled this team was just meeting a team that is ah offensively gifted as them ah just couldn't win the guns race and and I'm okay with that. Again, i'm I'm disappointed because I do believe Texas State is i certainly a top three G5 team this year. I really do believe that. um And I know that maybe ah a reduced take from my, oh, well, they're going to make the playoffs in the past. But i in all sincerity, Texas State is a top three team minimum in the G5. And i you know yeah I think they should have won this game and just ultimately an inability to score late cost them here. Well, I'll say this. so
00:07:51
Speaker
Neither team, both teams kind of struggled running the football and to kind of further illustrate the point that I made about the defensive lines earlier between the two teams, there was combined 14 tackles for loss.
00:08:04
Speaker
which you don't get unless like I said the the front seven or the front four rather of of one of one or both of these teams is just living in the backfield I mean we we talked about it Ismail Mahdi is like one of the most electric players regardless of position in the Sunbelt They held him to 68 yards on 14 carries. He was very efficient, five yards a carry, but it it wasn't the you know ripping off huge chunk plays that we kind of come to expect from a running back of that caliber. And again, I haven't watched a lot of Arizona State. I want to preferface preface this when I say that.
00:08:44
Speaker
the the height that i saw before and during the game about this cam scataboe or whatever his name is dude the guy averaged 2.6 yards per carry he had 24 carries for 62 yards now i do want to give credit again the defensive line for texas state played very well but i'm like where is this height coming from if he's ashton janty that's one thing but i was just like Yeah. This guy's a nice little running back. Like where is all, I don't understand why everybody's like, Oh, now you're in trouble. You got to face cam. And it's like, he's he's fine. Like I don't get it.
00:09:23
Speaker
I couldn't tell you what it was people liked about him as well. He was a ah a finalist for like a all around award, someone that, you know, best pass catcher slash kick returner slash running back last year. Um, my biggest takeaway was anytime I heard his name, I kind of grimace and I was like, is that a word we're allowed to say?
00:09:46
Speaker
Scataboe sounds like something like a serial killer does to a cat like before he like Progresses up to like people so ah um, but yeah, I mean again Jordan McLeod played very well in this game 29 of 44 268 for touchdowns you mentioned the interception I mean that was that was just bad timing bad decision, you know all of the above but I again was very you know decisive with a number of rushers coming free right in his face all night and you know ah to complete basically three quarters of your passes is pretty damn good all things considered so i i mean he was not the reason they lost this game it was sort of just the inability to
00:10:33
Speaker
not turn the ball over at the worst possible time. And, you know, there were just drives where it was, it was just like the pass for Arizona State was just working. And like, there's really nothing. I mean, we, I think we highlighted going into this season, like one of our biggest concerns about Texas State is number one, their defense, but one of the biggest concerns about their defense is the secondary.
00:10:55
Speaker
Like, i don't I don't think we knew a single one of these guys' names off the top of our head, like, before the preview started. And I don't even think Phil Steele, like, when we were doing the preview episode, like, called any of these guys out and was like, hey, this is somebody to watch for. So that kind of reared its ugly head. Now, they did pick off Levitt for the Sun Devils once. But yeah, it just ultimately wasn't enough. But again, I liked the effort Texas State gave.
00:11:24
Speaker
um you know I have no problems with them just coming up like a little short against a former Pac-12, now Big 12 school at home. you know those are Those are the ones that you're going to kick yourself, but in the end, you're like I think we're going to be glad we face this test at this point, especially before conference play starts.
00:11:45
Speaker
so With that, ah Arizona State moves to 3 and 0 and Texas State drops to 2 and 1. Real quick when we can breeze past because of both the nature of the game and
Texas State's Performance and Reflections
00:11:59
Speaker
the score. South Alabama absolutely crushes Northwestern State 87 to 10. I believe I saw that it was the most point scored at an FBS game since like 1991 or something. So that predates my existence. So that should tell you it's ah it's a long, long time. um Gio Lopez came back. He played well, obviously. um Fluff Bothwell.
00:12:26
Speaker
143 yards, two touchdowns. So I don't have a lot to highlight because again, it's a, you know, it's whatever, like it's great that they won, but I did think the final score, I kept rubbing my eyes at the end of the game being at the Texas state art or Arizona state game being like, is that score right? Like, did they misplace a seven? Like what's, what's going on here? No, I mean, this they scored 20, at least 24 points in all but the final quarter. I, I've,
00:12:54
Speaker
And we saw a 70 point game from Arkansas State last year. I've never seen a game like this. And I suppose what you just said backs it up highest scoring game. This was incredible. i And I, like you, did not care to watch it because very quickly we realized what was happening. And also I just didn't have the facilities to watch it. Uh, I gave him against Northwestern state, but I, I, that was just, I, I don't know. I, I'm not reading too much into it, especially after how South Al started the year. Oh, and two. Um, but you got momentum now, I suppose.
00:13:33
Speaker
Well, we'll we'll see how that all plays out because you know they get app state this week. So this is going to be starting to be the real kind of litmus test as to where they stand as a team. You know the the two losses were tough.
00:13:47
Speaker
ah you know, Lopez didn't play in the one because he had turf toe. ah But then he comes back in this one and they they put up 87, which is, you know, a good accomplishment. But again, you got to consider the level of competition. South Alabama is now one and two with the victory. Northwestern State drops to 0 and three. um Getting into this next one here, i' I'm sure. I'm sure you were a little disappointed by the ultimate result, right? ah Michigan beats Arkansas State, but but only by 10.
00:14:18
Speaker
Um, in a game that Arkansas state never really pushed Michigan really like it was, and and I texted you guys this on Saturday and Matt, you know, agreed with me and I'm sure you agreed to some extent. The opening drive for Arkansas state to move the ball down the field on their opening drive at will in the big house against Michigan in front of 120 or 110 or however many people thousand people and to just pull up and settle for three on like a fourth and one or or whatever was insane to me like again I texted you guys this and you know I'm telling the audience now for the first time if you're coaching that way against like old Dominion sure like if you feel good about your defense don't do that don't do that crap against Michigan at the big house like that is coaching scared
00:15:16
Speaker
it There's just no there's no point like you you are not favored to win this game So quit playing as if like hey, we'll hold them to three next time down. No you won't What why what makes you think that you would now? I'm gonna let you kind of say you're you're two cents I I have a very strong reason why I think this game was as close as it was but Give me sort of your thoughts before I go in on that. Uh Well, we can't look over the fact that Michigan has a quarterback problem. day David. yeah horn Yeah. Good job, man. He went 11 for 14. Your three incompletions, though, were interceptions. ah And I'm not going to say terrible. how I mean, terrible. Think about the complaints people had about JJ McCarthy and how he he just never threw the ball. But at least he at least he didn't turn the ball over.
00:16:11
Speaker
Uh, yeah, I think the Arkansas state though for a team. And again, I will concede here that it was Michigan who at the time was very highly ranked has dropped down to like 18 somewhere in that range. Um.
00:16:26
Speaker
Three interceptions forced scored only three points off of that. ah Arkansas State could feasibly have won this game if they didn't, I think, go three and out after one of the other interceptions. And then after the final Warren interception, Jalen Rainer threw his own interception right back within like three plays.
00:16:47
Speaker
ah Also, I'll point out here, Arkansas State, most of their points came on their final two drives. This was not a Michigan State, Arkansas State battle all the way. It was, or I'm sorry, Michigan, Arkansas State battle all the way. It was rather, Michigan just like kind of couldn't break away. They had the lead. They were going to win the whole time, but couldn't break away. Let Arkansas State score late.
00:17:14
Speaker
um i mean I'm impressed by the resolve. I'm impressed by you know the intangible hand wavy stuff that comes with playing a much higher stature team this close. um But Arkansas State, I've been told to believe in their offense and you scored three points on three interceptions. i i I think this was a missed opportunity. Again, like I don't think Arkansas State was ever going to win this game. And I imagine if they turn one of those interceptions into a touchdown, um one of the forced interceptions into a touchdown, I imagine Michigan comes out with a you know a little more aggression.
00:18:01
Speaker
ah and does not just only put up 28. i i It's hard to say unimpressed when you lose to Michigan by 10. This was a better than expected performance than Arkansas State, and I do not want to downplay how well comparative to expectation that they played against a team again that was in the national championship, ah Michigan.
00:18:31
Speaker
But, and again, you know, you knew the butt was coming. I, for a team that I've been told to be convinced on because of their ability to score points. Uh, I mean, three interceptions and he only put three points there is really damning for me. And again, ah most of those points only came late in the fourth when, frankly, it was 28 to three already.
00:18:57
Speaker
Well, I think a large part of it is just kind of level of competition, right? Like, you know, coming into this game, there was a reason that Arkansas State was what? A three, four touchdown underdog. I don't remember the the final number. um But yeah, I just feel Michigan has more pieces left over from last year on the defensive side of the ball than they do an offense. Their offense is Like from last year's team, the only real contributor that I see on the offensive side for Michigan is Donovan Edwards, who went crazy last year in the national championship game. But other than that, like I don't I don't like what I've seen out of Davis Warren. I've watched him. I've watched him play Texas and I've watched him play Arkansas State now. There's a reason that they've already moved on and have named Alex Orgy the starter for this week. So
00:19:50
Speaker
like that should kind of tell you where they're at quarterback wise like you said you know you would love to have JJ McCarthy back at this stage and I'm I'm sure given his knee injury he and being behind a now recently hot Sam Darnold I'm sure he'd love to be back in Ann Arbor throwing balls.
00:20:05
Speaker
um But yeah, it, it, it was just a weird game all around Michigan. I stopped watching this game at halftime because Michigan went up 21 to three. And then I checked in on it in the third quarter and no points for scored. And I was like, whatever, you know, it is what it is. And then I saw the final score when, when Matt sent to our group, like, Hey, Arkansas state ah just lost by 10. And I'm like, there's no way that's possible. Like I watched.
00:20:31
Speaker
After that first drive, it seemed like Arkansas State couldn't do anything right offensively. And I, again, I think a lot of it is due to level of competition. Like you can really tell the difference between a big 10 level defense and what we see in the Sunbelt. I feel like that gets really pushed up, you know, in in a game like this. So, I mean, Jalen Rader didn't play well.
00:20:58
Speaker
But again, you know, he's faced, he's not really facing this caliber of defense at all. Not even every single week. Like we just don't have this level of defense in this conference. So like, I feel like offensively you got to throw it out a little bit.
00:21:13
Speaker
It was, it was obviously good defensively that they picked Davis Warren off enough times to stay in this game but I just simply don't think he's very good, like, the, the, the run defense I think was very concerning I think moving forward for Arkansas State, you know, they gave Kalel Mullings 153 yards on 15 carries, two touchdowns. Um, his longest carry was only 38 yards of that. So, I mean, he was still, he was still racking up yards on really high efficiency. So I think that's gotta be kind of your takeaway is you know, defensively, if you're Arkansas state and you already know what teams want to do to you and you still can't really put up a fight.
00:21:59
Speaker
then then you're in deep like you need to then you have real problems. So we'll see if that kind of continues through a conference play when it picks up for them. But I guess I was encouraged by the fact that they didn't just totally duck out of this game and find a way to lose, you know, 45 to three, given the way that it was heading at halftime. But with that, Michigan is now two and one this season and Arkansas State drops to two and one.
00:22:28
Speaker
um Getting into this next one here, I didn't think this game was going to end up being as close as it was. Coastal Carolina goes on the road and only edges out Temple by eight points. I believe, let me let me double check this, they were 17 and a half point favorites on the road.
00:22:46
Speaker
um Maybe we've given Coastal, ah and and I know this is tough to say because they haven't lost yet, but maybe they've we've given them a little too much leeway and kind of put too much on their plate as far as what they could potentially accomplish because you go through their like previous you know performances and it's just kind of like eh like it's fine like you guys are finding a way to win games but your Vasco is not been you know kind of what we expected um um I mean to have 15 completions for 103 yards is like baffling like those are
00:23:30
Speaker
You know no offense. They're like Bryce young type numbers in the NFL like bow nicks so like That is concerning obviously he has the running capability. He had 92 yards rushing in this game um But yeah, it's like if they can't throw the ball effectively and the only person who can really rip off any yardage is Vasco it's going to get it's going to get hard come come conference time because that's the the what they've done the last two weeks specifically against William and Mary and now Temple that is not going to translate. So they need to figure it out ASAP if they want to win some conference games this year. I think the biggest issue that Coastal is facing right now is the lack of
00:24:21
Speaker
Anyone that can really make a big play, playmaker, if you will. Because, again, Vasco's yardage numbers were kind of abysmal. I don't know how you can put up those kind of numbers. Completing 15 passes only 100 yards ah is kind of baffling. um But he did it on high efficiency, which means he's getting the ball in guys' hands.
00:24:49
Speaker
And they're just not doing anything with it. ah Same thing in the run game. ah yeah Ethan Vasco is not Z on Chris. It is not sustainable for him to lead your team in passing and in rushing every week. yeah That is not the kind of quarterback that he is. That is not his skill set. And he led this team in rushing as a matter of happenstance than a matter of ability.
00:25:17
Speaker
i I think Coastal is just really suffering more so than it did last year because they still had some of the bones of like the Grayson McCall, Sam Pinkney was still there like they still had some of those guys.
00:25:33
Speaker
um this This team is suffering from the coaching change this year more than it was last year. And it appears evident. There's still 3-0. This is not to take away from them. There there are still 3-0, including like the the win against Jacksonville State, although Jacksonville State is in shambles to a level that we did not anticipate.
00:25:58
Speaker
See that, that's the thing for me now is, you know, you open the season scoring 55 points and, you know, we all kind of sat back and was like, Hey, there's a lot, you know, we did right here, you know, that you can build on, but now it's just kind of like.
00:26:15
Speaker
You know, we saw how bad Jacksonville state in there and that specifically their quarterback situation is horrific. So when you face a team that maybe has one of the worst quarterback situations in the country. Okay, you can maybe extrapolate a little bit from that, but not very much now that you sort of know that and then you get an FCS team.
00:26:36
Speaker
in William and Mary and then you get Temple who's 0 and 3 and you barely beat him by eight points and your quarterback doesn't break 110 yards passing. So like and and the the the thing too is I feel like it's going to be weeks before we even kind of know what Jax what Coastal Carolina team we have because this week they play Virginia and then the week after they play Old Dominion and that game might finish three to nothing.
00:27:04
Speaker
based on the way these two offenses have played. Like yeah that game might be first one to score wins. So it's going to be a while before we see them play a team where you're like, I'd like to see literally what kind of fight they put up against, you know, an equal or way better team. know Yeah, they'll get that against James Madison. But like you said, that's not for three weeks. um That's that's a whole month away.
00:27:30
Speaker
Well, that's the thing, will they against James Madison? Have we been super thrilled with what we've seen from James Madison lately? No, but I think that's appropriate considering we've not been thrilled by Coastal either. Yeah, I mean, I think Old Dominion will be a really good barometer because I feel like these teams now that we've seen them over the first three weeks are very similar in that if the quarterback situation don't have a ton of explosive weapons on the offensive side of the ball.
00:27:59
Speaker
and kind of just want to play really conservative and not make their make their quarterbacks make a lot of plays. So ah that's why I said, again, you know first first team to score three points may win this game. like Who knows? Here's something I want you to chew on as we go through the rest of these games and we'll readdress it once we've done the recaps, is who do you think that we as a collective or as a community or even you personally,
00:28:25
Speaker
We're wrong about the most like who has moved the needle in one way or the direction the most as we get through kind of the the rest of these games I want you to be thinking about that because I think coastal is certainly like top three in that regard Can I can I go ahead and answer now?
Coastal Carolina's Challenges and Strategies
00:28:42
Speaker
Yeah, I think it's James Madison That's probably it like I I didn't have super super high expectations for them to begin with but we talked about I the schedule is so easy. like you know and Even with that, they still are kind of struggling.
00:29:01
Speaker
so like what do you you know We all universally agreed like we didn't have a lot of high hopes for Troy, and they've they've proven us you know largely correct. so I don't think that we were we were way off on them. South Alabama yeah You know, going the other way, I think the team we've been lower than market on that we maybe should have been higher was kind of ULM. Like they've already kind of topped where I thought they would be three games into the season. And like I know they haven't played the greatest level of competition, but I mean, look at where they started and look at where they are now. So like it's one of those where it's like any progress is good progress. Yeah.
00:29:46
Speaker
Alright, so Coastal, despite, you know, playing a pretty shaky game overall is now 3-0 this season, Temple drops to 0-3. Troy decided that they the time to start showing up for games at least, you know, through halftime of this game was at Kinnick Stadium playing against Iowa.
00:30:10
Speaker
ah So they lose but they lose 38 to 10 Iowa scores Outscores Troy 28 to 7 in the second half to pull out the 17-point victory um They benched goose Crowder for this game Caldwell was the full-time starter i I told you guys like when I was watching them of Shoot who do they play the week before? um They had ah Memphis last week right so Memphis that was another situation of you guys are overmatched and you're kicking field goals you know you're answering sevens with threes basically and like I felt that way about Butch Jones at Arkansas State this week if they're gonna play if these teams are gonna play not to lose every week I can't I can't do it with them like at some point you got to kind of put your foot down and say hey
00:31:06
Speaker
Like, we're going to have to be a little aggressive. Like, we can't just be passive all the time. um So Troy, again, falls 38-21. Caldwell started 14 of 21, 156 yards, one touchdown, one pick. They couldn't run the ball. Devontae Ross ah did all of their damage. Troy, offensively, ah five catches for 142 yards and two scores.
00:31:32
Speaker
um But yeah, I mean Iowa just Caleb Johnson for Iowa just absolutely crushed them on the ground so Once again, we're back to Troy's defense We hardly knew ye because it's gone now dude like ah it's it's starting over from scratch again Yeah, ah they they look solid in the first half. They they had a 14 10 lead going into half ah but ultimately i This was frustrating because again, I don't think that a win was necessarily in the cards, even up 14, 10 at half, but yeah I needed a better second half performance. ah they They just kind of sputtered out. yeah You'd think a team playing big 10 Iowa
00:32:21
Speaker
who Iowa up until again up until this year Iowa and Troy were kind of the P5 G5 mirrors of one another where their ideal game was a 13 to 7 win.
00:32:37
Speaker
who ah And Iowa has turned that around. They are still performing defensively very well, but now have an offense to speak of. Troy, on the other hand, has regressed back into kind of shambles of where they were.
00:32:54
Speaker
prior to this kind of most recent run um I don't know I don't have a ton to say about this one just because it it feels that this is what was anticipated. um Troy Troy was fighting until Matthew Caldwell's one interception was returned.
00:33:11
Speaker
For a touchdown, that turned the game around in Iowa's favor. Iowa scored, I think, three touchdowns after that on three possessions or some some crazy efficiency in that regard. um Yeah, i to answer the question we just kind of discussed, I was higher on Troy than I should have been. i thought Um, much like the transition that Coastal had last year, when I said like the bones of that Coastal team was still intact last year, and then they kind of fell apart. I anticipated something similar here from Troy, where I thought that there was going to be ah enough left over ah to sustain this team around 500. And I'm starting to really, really question that. I think when we get into Sunbelt play for Troy, ah they may over-perform
00:33:58
Speaker
uh as compared to this start just because they are playing in the west and are drawing a relatively easy schedule for the uh compared to what it could have been um but i i don't have a ton to add novelty wise about this one well i i i don't know about that what you just said about troy getting into sunbelt play because I mean, when you go through and look at your schedule look at their schedule, right? the Even the games that we originally came into this season thinking, oh, Troy, I'll win that. Now, those based on the way that they've played in the first three weeks are totally up in the air. Like, OK, in two weeks, they play you on Monroe. You all Monroe's been pretty good. Like, do you feel confident in saying, yeah, they're going to they're going to pick up a win over you on Monroe? Then.
00:34:50
Speaker
This is their conference scheduled this year. I want to try to read it as slowly as possible Okay, and so in in two weeks they play you on one row the week after that they would get Texas State at home They're not winning that game The week after that they go to South Alabama On a Thursday, I believe that potentially could be a win But if Gio Lopez scores points, who's going to match that output for Troy offensively? Like we we know that Gio Lopez can put points up. We do not know that anybody for Troy can do that yet. um Then you play at Arkansas State. Say what you want. Zeke, I know you're not the the biggest fan. They can score points like, you know, it is what it is. Coastal, they they're going to want to play like like we said, probably a really conservative game.
00:35:39
Speaker
keep Troy off the field and Troy has to make the most of the limited opportunities they get anyway because they're just simply not very good offensively. ah At Georgia Southern, we know Southern is going to score points. Do we know Troy is going to be able to either stop that or are they going to be able to match? Probably not.
00:35:56
Speaker
at Louisiana in the second to last game of the season two days before Thanksgiving, ah Louisiana is probably going to blow them off the map. And then you end with Southern Miss, which feels like the only layup left other than Florida A&M this coming week. So I'm sorry, Troy fans, like, but you guys have had a really great run this last couple of years, and now it's like time to pay the piper a little bit. So, you know, again, two Sunbelt titles,
00:36:25
Speaker
You know, John Summerall was the was the absolute man. And now it's like, hey, we're we're starting way over again. And I don't even know if Gerard Parker is like the right guy for the job three games into the season. So I mean, let me let me jump the gun. How do you go ahead? Well, let me ask you this. I Matt and I talked about this, the episode that you missed. So Gerard Parker comes from Notre Dame.
00:36:51
Speaker
Right? Like that was, he was the offensive coordinator. Has Notre Dame's offense ever scared you? Have you ever thought it was entertaining? Like I can't personally remember the last time that I thought Notre Dame's offense was good or entertaining. I can't remember a time I've thought Notre Dame was a good team.
Notre Dame's Influence and App State's Struggles
00:37:10
Speaker
i I mean is it well right now right now they have a very good defense like yeah the way that it stands right now but it always feels like okay we're deficient at the quarterback position it always feels like they're treading water at quarterback I can't remember the last time they've had it Brady Quinn maybe was the last time they had a good quarterback and that was 17 years ago. I mean, if there's, if you want to throw Ian book in there, whatever, like it is what it is. But again, their offense has always been single back to tight in sets. We run the football and take time off the clock and play defense. Like, but what about that? What, what do you watch about that offensively and go, I want a piece of that.
00:37:56
Speaker
I don't know. And they have in NFL caliber players playing for them every week. Like Troy doesn't have that luxury. You know, there's there's no Kyron Williams that's like, hey, guess what? I played at Troy. There's no, you know, Michael Mayer or whoever. So it's going to be tough running this scheme with like not NFL caliber talent. So I don't know. Yeah.
00:38:22
Speaker
I, I, no, I, I agree with you. I think, uh, there, I don't believe that there's a single team in all of college football that rides legacy more than Notre Dame. Um, and so, I dunno, it was a sexy hire, um, at first glance, but I don't know. We'll see. We'll see. i they They've got to show up against Florida A and&M. Again, I'll jump the gun. We'll talk about it more later, but they need to show out.
00:38:50
Speaker
against A and&M or Parker could be a one year guy. I don't I don't necessarily think it's that bad. But I just mean like long term when you look like two years down the road, what's more likely from what you've seen at this point, not even just from like a production perspective. But again, you played Memphis last week.
00:39:15
Speaker
and you were kicking field goals when you were down 24 at one point, like you turned a three score game into a three score game. Congrats. Like, I don't, I don't really know what to make of that. So I think if you're not going to coach this team aggressively and try to take some chances,
00:39:34
Speaker
then then why even bother? Because again, you're not getting NFL caliber talent the way that Notre Dame does. So I don't know what to make of this. But anyway, Iowa moves to two and one with the victory. Troy is now 0 and three this season. um Another game that was closer than I thought it was going to be actually App State edges out East Carolina by two points. I mean, I know App State had to go in there on the road.
00:40:02
Speaker
um App State continues to kind of struggle to run the ball effectively, which is a very not App State of them. Usually they are just cramming the ball down other teams throats. And in this one, it was like Anderson Castle 17 carries 40 yards. Kanye Roberts five carries 15 yards. Amani Marshall four carries eight yards. That is very not not what we've come to expect out of App.
00:40:29
Speaker
and it feels like Joey Aguilar now has to put the offense on his back on a weekly basis to give them a chance to win. Do you agree yeah with that? ah That's what it's shaping up to be, which is disappointing because App has consistently produced some of the most ah Efficient. ah I don't know. It's not voluptuous, but to have the most volume but what voluminous, perhaps voluminous. Is that the right word? um They've produced some.
00:41:07
Speaker
incredible running backs over the past several years. And that's kind of been my impression of the Sean Clark app teams is that they've got a guy that's going to run for a thousand yards and everything else can kind of change.
00:41:22
Speaker
But that's going to be consistent. They are not going to have that this year. Anderson Castle has not crossed 100 yards this year. um There was even in the opener, he wasn't the team's leading rusher. So there's questions if he's even the guy or if they're going to continue to really split. I liked in this game against East Carolina that he did get more volume. ah In the first two games, a gripe I had with App was that they weren't giving anybody the chance to to be the guy.
00:41:51
Speaker
in that back field. It's fall falling to Joey Aguilar, but he's doing it pretty well. Two picks is not great, ah but you know two two touchdowns to go with it in 400 yards.
00:42:05
Speaker
i We knew going in that Joey Aguilar was ah one of the best quarterbacks in the conference. ah So it's just going to be a matter of time, like how long can they ride that? um Because realistically, they should have beat East Carolina by more than two points. This is not a scary East Carolina team that's dominating the American conference.
00:42:28
Speaker
um
00:42:30
Speaker
ah Yeah, so so I think all in all the the question about app going forward is how long can Joey Aguilar sustain? these heroics ah While app tries to figure out its running game Can I ask you something? Yeah, and it may be too early to make this call, but I just want to put the question out, did maybe we got did we maybe get a little too far out ahead of ourselves with the app Love? like And I only say that in comparison to the rest of the teams in the conference. like I know they got absolutely train you know railroaded last week by Clemson, but the inability to run the football effectively
00:43:20
Speaker
kind of makes them a one-dimensional offense and I think defensively still like you know they're they're very good but we kind of crowned them a little bit like it was going to be app coming out of the east it was going to be you know take your pick of Texas State or Louisiana coming out of the west like that was pretty much the consensus and now it feels like Hey, if they can't run the football and it's all on Joey Aguilar every week, it's like, okay, but is he going to throw for 420 yards every single Saturday to keep them in games? I mean, they won by two points and he threw for almost 430 yards.
00:44:03
Speaker
Like this may be revisionist. and So I'll have to go back and rewatch the episodes to really figure out what it was that we said and planted our flag on. But I wouldn't say that we crowned app, but rather we defaulted to app because other than Southern.
00:44:22
Speaker
And James Madison, we were kind of high on James, who, who did we like out of the East? The East is not that strong. So it's not like we said, app is the clear coastal, maybe coastal was kind of in the same ballpark conversation is JMU where we were kind of tepid on them. Like they, they could be good. They could overperform their over under. Um, so yeah, I think app.
00:44:49
Speaker
at At this point in the season is still my favorite to win the East, but that's not to say that they are, Oh, they're the best team in the East. I just think of all the teams in the East, they are the best. If that tracks it all.
00:45:10
Speaker
Brian, Brian, you cut out.
00:45:25
Speaker
Okay, so I think my concern is more of, well, um I'll go ahead and say this. As it stands today, I think Texas State has taken the crown as the best team in the conference. um And until until something happens in conference play to get me to think otherwise, I'm gonna continue to believe that.
00:45:53
Speaker
i I do think the lack of a running game consistently is should be very concerning for app because when things weren't the off chance that things weren't working passing game wise for for angular on the running backs to to make a difference now you don't All right, apologies, we're having some technical difficulties, but I think the concern is that Aguilar doesn't have the running game to fall back upon. And I don't know if that's going to be a huge issue moving forward, especially when you played some of these really tight conference games where you know the game might be a little closer than you think.
00:46:38
Speaker
But I, I think there needs to be some area of concern. I don't know if it's the offensive line for app that just isn't getting, you know, sort of the leverage in the push they did last year, or if the Kanye Roberts, Amani Marshall Anderson castle triumvirate has taken a step back. I don't, I don't know, but I, they, they really do need to show that they can be able to run the ball when they absolutely need to, because being one dimensional in this conference is sort of, it's very tough to overcome. So we'll see how all that goes.
00:47:10
Speaker
Anyway, East Carolina drops to two and one, and App State improves to two and one ah with the App State victory. um All right, getting into this next one here. So Virginia Tech pulls away from Old Dominion late, wins 37 to 17. It was 14 to 10 Virginia Tech at half. And then they outscored Old Dominion in the second half, 23 to 7.
00:47:38
Speaker
um Yeah, I guess I was off on the spread. I guess I expected Virginia Tech to jump on them earlier and make like a real dent like in the first half. And they came alive in the second half, but they just didn't have the lead in place that I kind of thought was going to happen. I again, I don't know how much there is to take away from this game. If you root for Old Dominion or you know, you want to think of you want to take our thoughts on Old Dominion, but it's like Dude, this this offense is a mess. to say To say it's a mess is kind of an understatement. Your leading passer had 38 yards in this game. Quinn Henickel,
00:48:25
Speaker
I guess, is how you pronounce it. ah As a team, two quarterbacks combined to go 6 of 14 for 50 yards passing in a game where you could not really afford to just run the ball every single play like you are not explosive enough offensively to make that work so their leading receiver had two catches. Wait, how many? what do We're going to just sing. We're going to sing the same song every year, every week. And we sang it every week. Last year, this old Dominion team is without offensive talent at any position. Uh, it.
00:49:09
Speaker
I was impressed by their ability to hold Virginia Tech, a team that I will admit notably likes to play down, especially against Sunbelt teams for whatever reason. Their AD has something something going on. He loves to play Sunbelt teams.
00:49:23
Speaker
um Old all Dominion is just not a talented football team, right? ah And we've, we've said it, we said it in the preview. We're going to keep saying it and I'm going to bore everyone with this, but it's just like, that's old Dominion. They're, they're here for other sports. You got to feel the football team. Like there are teams like ULM where in recent years they've been dog, but we've seen ULM play football at a high level before. We've seen that team be a relevant football program.
00:49:59
Speaker
Old Dominion. That is not the case. Old Dominion is a it's like and again, to jump the jump. It's like having Vanderbilt in the SEC is like someone's got to be there. that they Someone's got to be the 14th team. um I don't know. I didn't learn much. I didn't learn anything from this just because this is what we knew. See, I liken them more to if you want to make the SEC comparison, I liken them more to like a Mississippi State where There's a clear cap and ceiling on this team. And sometimes they'll have a season or two where you're like, oh, they're making some headway. And then other times, other seasons, you're just like, this team is dog water, like kind of you said, like it's it's really tough because it's like, how how are you expected to compete and you don't have a single offensive contributor you can rely on? Like, what do you do with that? So.
00:50:57
Speaker
And I get it, Grant Wilson didn't play, but to have your leading passer have 38 yards and you have 50 yards passing as a team in a game where, ah I mean, especially late, you know, Virginia Tech put up 17 in the fourth quarter. Like that would have been the time to just kind of uncork it and just be like, whatever.
00:51:16
Speaker
you know This game is a loss either way. like Unless Ricky Ronnie is worrying about covering the spread, like i don't I don't really see the value in playing a very conservative type game. I think, again, Old Dominion Coastal is going to be raced to score 10 points, I think. yeah Because neither one of these teams want to open the playbook up. So I don't know what to i don't know what to say.
00:51:39
Speaker
um I know in the preseason, one of our listeners, who's the old Dominion fan, was very upset because we messed up one of the results of their games last year. And he was like, we were in all these one-score games. Not this year, dude. I think that's donezo. If you don't have a quarterback that can throw for 50 yards, I don't know what to tell you. like yeah yeah Unless you're running the old like Army-Navy triple option and you're not. So I don't um't really know what to make of this.
00:52:06
Speaker
ah So anyway, Virginia Tech moves to two and one with the victory. Old Dominion is now 0 and three this season. um Getting into, we can
Georgia State's Surprising Victory
00:52:16
Speaker
kind of skip this. Georgia Southern played South Carolina State. They won 42-14. I was not overly thrilled with the ah the run defense still ah for Georgia Southern. um There were many times where South Carolina State's quarterback would just scramble around and there was just nobody there to tackle him. Even to the point where I tweeted,
00:52:36
Speaker
ah How many times can you watch this guy scramble with no intention of throwing the ball and not have a dedicated spy? And multiple people responded to me who are Georgia Southern fans with the exact same response is, this is what happens when you don't have a real defensive coordinator. And I was like, correct. That is what happens. But I mean, all in all, the you know they won the game, whatever. They beat at HPCU, good for them. ah Georgia Southern's 2-1 South Carolina State, so now 1-2. I'm going to give you the floor for this one. Georgia State upsets Vanderbilt in center part. Vanderbilt felt like they had to lead late.
00:53:14
Speaker
And then Georgia State just kind of went out and grabbed it from. him So kind of walk me through this one. So first of all, you have to point out that this is Georgia State's second SEC win. Beat Tennessee back a couple of years ago, ah almost 10 years ago now. Congratulations. They own the state of Tennessee when it comes to SEC play.
00:53:36
Speaker
um I mean, Georgia state, what really stood out to me about Georgia state is that this is what Dell McGee can provide right is he can get guys to buy in for this game. Vanderbilt's coach came out afterwards. I don't think it was the post game presser but like his weekly the coaches presser thing and he pretty much said summed up what I thought was the case with this game Vanderbilt just felt for that fell for the trap Vanderbilt
00:54:08
Speaker
was kind of performing outperforming what you'd expect from them in the first several weeks, ah came into Center Park and kind of crapped the bed. ah The only reason this game even came so close is because they scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, 22 points, ah which worries me a little, but not a ton as a Georgia State ah fan. Georgia State showed up for this game in a way that I've not seen them show up for a Power Five, let alone an out-of-conference game in a minute.
00:54:43
Speaker
the This was an excellent performance. Again, I think Vanderbilt is a lot to blame here, more so more so than Georgia State. um I thought a lot of Georgia State's scores came on like foolish mistakes, especially like defensive blown coverages. ah Georgia State scored a safety because it was either a kick or a punt. you know On a kick, Vanderbilt's backup returner,
00:55:13
Speaker
took the ball took it out of the end zone and then back in and then kneeled it ah for a safety which again is just like stupid stuff if you're not ready for the moment why are you even there um the crazy thing is too isn't the rule that you can call fair catch anywhere inside like the 20 and they'll put it on the 25 for you Uh, if it was a kickoff, yes, I don't remember if it was a kickoff or punt off. Okay. Um, if it's a kickoff, yes. If it's a punt, no, you've got to catch it. Um, Oh, I know. I thought, I thought, I thought you said kickoff. Sorry.
00:55:47
Speaker
It's one of the two. I don't know. Obviously, it was one of the two, but I'm not sure. um I think regardless, though, if you're going to end up kneeling it, just let it bounce. Let it bounce. I if you're in the anyway. Anyway, um I think in terms of the long term, like, what does this mean for Georgia state moving forward? It's that again, to hype up Dell McGee, this guy has acquired talent.
00:56:15
Speaker
ah that this program has has transferred in talent that this program would have never known about previously. Ted Hurst, namely leading receiver, he came in from Valdosta. Team's leading tackler Xavier Wilson might be his name, ah it's escaping me in this moment, ah came in from West Georgia. Dell McGee is getting guys that are immediately making an impact in his first season.
00:56:42
Speaker
uh which again that has been the draw of this guy as a head coach since he'd had had that one game at southern everyone knew that like this guy's gonna get you talent uh and it's Ted Hurst was a guy i was not even on my radar coming into the season to me he was a depth wide receiver behind uh oh goodness kiddaqua There's a handful of guys, Josiah Cradle's still there. um So he he was like four or five, but he's he's shown out. And that's because Del McGee was able to find this guy at Valdosta, find Xavier Wilson at West Georgia.
00:57:22
Speaker
um It was fun to watch Vanderbilt play with Diego Paiva, uh, because that guy reminded me a lot of Darren Granger in that, uh, shoot, the play was dead three seconds ago, but he's still moving. He's still finding a way to extend the play. Uh, so it was exciting. I'm not, don't read too far into this as a Georgia state. Uh, you know, don't take this to mean that Georgia state is better than bandy or Betty better than an SEC team, but do take it to mean that there is a shift.
00:57:54
Speaker
the The shift that this team needed after losing Sean Elliott probably is here. A level of buy-in from players, a level of buy-in again from fans. we've We've talked about, I believe he's getting the campus more excited about this team and a level of talent is gonna come to this team that it's never had before.
00:58:15
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, you know, if anybody goes back and listens to last season's episodes, ah particularly last season's preview of Georgia State and even kind of going back to when we were doing the Underdog Dynasty podcast talking about Georgia State, it just always felt like there was a real cap on their ceiling, like what they were able to accomplish. It always felt like eight and four was like the absolute pinnacle of what they could accomplish.
00:58:46
Speaker
And I think given the time, I think Dell McGee, kind of what you said, is going to be able to recruit a lot of guys in there that wouldn't have previously even given Georgia State a sniff under Sean Elliott. So I think the only main concern is if you guys do start, and and this may be put in the cart before the horse a little bit, but if Georgia State does start succeeding what happens if coordinators start getting poached because this is sort of what happened to some extent with Chad Lunsford at Southern, which was he was the recruiting guy. He was way less accomplished or qualified for the job than Dale McGee was, but people loved him. He was a big recruiter. You know, he did a great job on that side of things, but
00:59:40
Speaker
specifically when the offense at Southern got found out and people started kind of solving it and then shy warts leaves, then all of a sudden it's like, Oh no, now I have to reload. And people have kind of figured out what the offense is. So like, what do we do at that point? That, that may be further down the road, a concern to have, but right now, yeah, I mean,
01:00:03
Speaker
we We were talking about this team before the season winning, what, three, four games, five games tops at very best. So we'll we'll see if they kind of continue to, you know, rash it up throughout the season. But this was a great win for them. ah be yeah Any SEC school at home is is huge to even get a home and home scheduled, much less actually beat them. So kudos to to the Panthers because this was a really good one. Georgia State moves to two and one with the victory. Vanderbilt is now drops to two and one.
01:00:33
Speaker
um Getting to one last game here, we don't have to honestly spend a lot of time on this, but Southern Miss was down 28-21 at halftime against South Florida on Saturday and found a way to get outscored in the second half, 21-3. They ended up getting beat by 25 at home, especially basically in the second half. Put another notch in the, you know,
01:01:01
Speaker
getting ready to axe will haul, like this is another notch in that belt.
Southern Miss and Upcoming Game Predictions
01:01:07
Speaker
So the fact that you were able to play that closely with a team that took Alabama to the limit for three quarters for a half and you just totally folded up shop in the second half. Like I know South Florida is a better football team, but if you can put up that kind of fight in the first half, then you can muster something in the second half and they just, they just couldn't. Uh,
01:01:32
Speaker
we We know where I stand on Southern Miss. Again, this this is no secret. I think... i My biggest thing is... We're all in the same boat on Southern Miss. Nobody here is high on them. Right. i am Did you watch any of this game, Brian?
01:01:51
Speaker
Um, so I caught a couple of plays. Um, I, I did not see a snap of this and I'm seeing that road maker was pulled and I looked for injury news. I looked for like any sort of, I couldn't find anything out of that. I think they just pulled him. He wasn't performing poorly 10 for 15, one 20.
01:02:14
Speaker
Dude, if you try to make heads or tails of Southern Misses quarterback situation, like you're going to you're going to give yourself an aneurysm. So don't don't think about it too hard. Yeah, ah I don't know. Like I said, I didn't watch a ton of this game. I didn't watch any of this game. ah And I start. Sorry, Southern Miss fans. ah Your team sucks.
01:02:39
Speaker
I mean, I watched some of the second half, but honestly, South Florida was just putting it on him in the second half. So I was just like. I'll have this I cannot watch the last quarter of this game and I'll have the same take unless they mount like a huge you know it was what 42 to 21 after three quarters and I was like I can flip it over to a more entertaining game than this I actually watched the end of Georgia and Kentucky not a not a particularly entertaining game but yeah I was like it's closer than this but
01:03:12
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, ah Southern Miss is just outclassed, but unfairly or unfairly, they're going to be outclassed by pretty much every team they play because they're not very good. So I don't really, you know, Will Hall, again, needs to go ahead and get a packing truck ready because he's he's done so after this season.
01:03:31
Speaker
Alright, so South Florida with the wind is now two and one. Southern Miss drops to one and two two with the loss. So as we turn the page to week four. Let's go ahead and try to make some pics on these games. um Starting Thursday, the night the day this is going to come out, so the game is happening that night. App State is welcoming South Alabama in to Boone.
01:03:59
Speaker
App is a seven and a half point home favor over under 63 and a half. Something screwy is going to happen. I guarantee for some reason. I'm going to take the bait and take at minus seven and a half. But watch fluff Bothwell run for four touchdowns. And I'm just sitting here left with with my with my head in my hands wondering what's going on. Yeah. ah This will be a really interesting game to figure out what either of these teams actually are. um And I think it is worth it's one of those rare Sunbelt games that is worth watching over Thursday night football.
01:04:35
Speaker
um Give me ah the under here 63 and a half. I think that number is just stupidly inflated by South al's performance last week. I don't there's little to no chance both teams score 30 here. Yeah, I so but ah you don't have to make a pick, but I just wanted to ask. Do you you think at wins this game by eight points?
01:05:01
Speaker
I think app wins by, I would take south out because I like app to win straight up, but not by eight.
01:05:12
Speaker
All right. I'm changing my pick. I'm going to tell you and say the under. Yeah. Of 63 and a half. i it's so It's something about like, if it was six and a half, for some reason, mentally, I'm like, yes, but seven and a half. I'm like, why is it seven and a half? I don't know. a Alabama has showed very little.
01:05:32
Speaker
They don't want people to push is essentially what it is. um My, my thing is like, where is this South, out South Alabama like benefit of the doubt kind of coming from, um you know, brought from scoring 70, 80 points last week.
01:05:47
Speaker
Yeah, but like look at that level of competition. I mean, look, South Alabama had Gio Lopez in week one and it didn't didn't. Oh, I don't I don't disagree. But, you know, this is all out. There's not a person picking it by hand. This is all algorithm. When you score and points, this stuff isn't built for that. No, no, you're right. OK, Saturday, for some reason, the Fox Sports like big noon Saturday crew is at this game. ah Marshall, Ohio State.
01:06:17
Speaker
um Ohio State is a 40 and a half point home favorite over unders 51 and a half I'm gonna take the over I think more I think Ohio State could hit the over by themselves I mean they are a 40 and a half point favorite in the over unders 51 and a half so they're implying That like what Marshall scores 10 points, maybe yeah, Ohio State's 2 1 0 they've ah Outscored opponents 108 to 6 ah That was acronym West Michigan, which is frankly kind of the same level as Marshall. ah Give me, god, 40 is just so rich. i like They will win by 40. But you know were we've got a competition here between ourselves. I can't i can't put myself in that position. ah Give me the over as well.
01:07:05
Speaker
OK. Noon on ACC Network. ah We have James Madison traveling to Chapel Hill to take on the Tar Heels. um UNC is a 10 and a half point home favorite over under 47 and a half. um I'm going to take North Carolina and hope that the the heads or tails on Alonzo Barnett lands on tails this week.
01:07:30
Speaker
Yeah, go ahead. Sorry. No, but he's just he he'll turn in one pretty respectable performance and then he'll turn around and turn something in and you're like, I don't I don't understand this or why it happened. Yeah, I think a Marion Hampton is just going to absolutely dice up James Madison. Give me ten and a half is way too low. Give me UNC. Yeah.
01:07:53
Speaker
um All right, I wish Matt was on to discuss this game this next one This would have been an interesting discussion because he has a soft spot for Tulane Who's playing Louise at Louisiana at noon on ESPN you I'm gonna be tuned into this game ah This is one of the more entertaining matchups. I think of the year Honestly, like I I think this is gonna be a really good test for Louisiana that said I'm taking Tulane minus three on the road um Louisiana has looked good, not great so far. And I think I mean, who better to plan against Louisiana than a guy that just coached in the Sunbelt for Troy for two years? Sure. ah Two lane is one and two. They're one win over Southeast Louisiana, but then lost to Oklahoma and Kansas State. ah What's the over under here? Fifty four and a half or.
01:08:53
Speaker
I don't want to touch this game on any of them. ah Give me Louisiana. I think it sounds like you're a little tepid. I think Louisiana has done what they've needed to prove that they're probably the second best team in the conference this year. I like them at home. Give me Louisiana. Yeah, sorry. I was trying to pull up. So Louisiana's wins, though, have come against Grambling.
01:09:19
Speaker
and ah an HBCU in week one, and then they played Kennesaw State, who still has not really had time to adjust from going FCS to FPS. No, but they've done what's required of them in those games. Like, what what more did you want from them in those games? No, I agree. I just feel like this is a real step up in competition for them. Whereas I think the only hope, if you take the two lanes side of this,
01:09:48
Speaker
is that Tulane doesn't play down to them. I think that's the big concern because Tulane again has been tested by Oklahoma and Kansas state. So in theory, you would say, Hey, you can take a lot more from those performances, even in losses than you can beating the crap out of Grambling in week one or whatever, you know, and and I understand Tulane beat Southeast Louisiana state or whatever, but Yeah, I just feel like I've seen flashes from Tulane that I feel like would be something you can replicate you ah in a closer game like this. and um I hear you. So two o'clock here, ESPN plus Arkansas State is traveling to Ames to take on Iowa State. Iowa State is a 22 point favorite over under 51 and a half.
01:10:39
Speaker
um
01:10:42
Speaker
Give me the under of 51 and a half. um I think Arkansas State scoring the way they did last week against Michigan is a little bit of a fluke. I don't think Iowa State's quarterback situation is quite as bad as the combination of Davis Warren and Alex Orgy um and Michigan somehow wanting neither of them to start, but having to pick somebody. So I'm going to take, I'm going to take the under 51 and a half.
01:11:12
Speaker
I like the under as well it Iowa State scored as many points against North Dakota North Dakota in week one as it did against Iowa in week two. ah Give me the under.
01:11:26
Speaker
All right, another two o'clock ESPN Plus game here. Virginia is traveling to Conway to take on Coastal Carolina. Virginia is a three and a half point road favorite. Over under is 55 and a half. I'm going to go under again. Like, I don't see where the points are going to come from for Coastal.
01:11:45
Speaker
like Unless Calandria for Virginia turns in one of the worst performances of his life at quarterback Which is what we've seen to be the winning formula when you play for Coastal is you got to play a guy That's like having one of the worst days of his life. um I Just I don't see how Coastal generates enough offense and like unless the turnovers are coming and those are turning into scores I just don't I don't really see it ah Give me for Virginia here. I think they win by a touchdown
01:12:16
Speaker
maybe 10 even. Okay. Uh, three o'clock here, a game that, I mean, I can't feel good about this. Uh, three o'clock ESPN plus Southern miss is traveling to take on Jacksonville state. Um, first one to throw three picks loses. I mean, because Jacksonville State's quarterback sit situation is a mess. Southern Misses quarterback situation is up in the air. We don't know who's playing, who's in, who's out, who's even injured. um Man, I'm going under again like I hate to just make a run of this, but like yeah, who's going to store who's going to score for Jacksonville State? Who's going to score for Southern Miss? No, I I think those number that over under is coming from the Putrid defense that we've seen from both of these teams. More so the fact than.
01:13:06
Speaker
Oh my gosh, USM and Jacksonville State are both going to score 30. Uh, give me Southern Miss as low as I am on them. I can hit the very, I've at least seen them win a game. Uh, Jacksonville State, obviously again, it came against Southeast Louisiana. Um, and Jacksonville State is yet to play an FCS school this year. Uh, they've played a ah far more, uh, you know, on level schedule, but I've seen Southern Miss win a game. I haven't seen Jackson and State do it.
01:13:35
Speaker
um Another seven o'clock or a seven o'clock kick here ESPN plus We don't have to spend a lot of time on this one Troy will presumably pick up their first win of the season against Florida A and&M. I Hope so Well, yeah But like I don't I don't have a lot and ah more to kind of contribute there like yeah, you know, it's kind of like I I don't love either of the quarterback options at Troy. You can't run the football effectively defensively. You're not where you were. I mean, but I think they'll have enough to beat Florida A&M. If they don't, it's going to be dark days in Alabama. ah
01:14:15
Speaker
um getting to this next one here this one actually has a line SEC Network 745 Eastern Time Georgia Southern is traveling to Oxford to take on Ole Miss Ole Miss is a 35 point favorite over under his 66 and a half um I don't know if you saw this I had a tweet yesterday um Georgia Southern is statistically through three games, the third worst Russian defense in the country. They are giving up. I think it was 237 yards per game on the ground and they average give up. They give up on average 6.5 yards per carry. ah Give me Mississippi minus 35. They're beating the crap out of teams that they play.
01:14:57
Speaker
And Georgia Southern like defensively doesn't have the the horses to stick around. I like Southern to cover here. I agree that Mississippi State is gonna run all over the Eagles and I think it's gonna be.
01:15:12
Speaker
pretty ugly ah but at some point I think Ole Miss is going to have to put on the brakes and obviously putting on the brakes means running and like you could argue that well this team can't defend the run so even if they're just trying to run the clock out they're going to keep scoring I think it'll just become ah On Ole Miss side, handoff, handoff, handoff down the field for a seven-minute drive. Georgia State does the same thing, but through the air, screenplay, screenplay, screenplay for a six-minute drive. um Shoot, there might not be seven full possessions in the second half. ah Give me Southern to cover. This game has, because I don't, you know, obviously I don't write for underdog dynasty anymore, like this game has me cutting it off it it during the middle of the third quarter, like written all over it.
01:15:59
Speaker
like i will go i will be like all right so it's uh it's 49 to 14 in the middle of the third quarter um all right i'm gonna find something else to watch like i'm sorry guys you know a we have one of these a year that we play for money and that's fine It doesn't mean I have to watch the whole thing. I'm not the head coach of the team. So, uh, hit last game of the night on ESPN plus, uh, UL Monroe is traveling into Austin to take on the number one team in the country, the Texas Longhorns.
01:16:32
Speaker
The spread is 40, Texas is a 44 and a half point favorite over unders 52 and a half. I'm taking the over of 52 and a half. I could see Texas covering this by themselves. And and that's not a knock on ULM. They are just not, they're not in the same stratosphere as Texas.
01:16:47
Speaker
Yeah, I think ah quarterback play. I'm excited to really see Arch Manning. ah that That's the real storyline here more than anything else. um Give me Texas to cover, but that is functionally the same pick you made, frankly. Art showed some wheels off last weekend. Yeah. i um very unmi Very unmanning like of him.
01:17:14
Speaker
I think, I mean, it's no secret. They're in a very good quarterback situation there. Um, I, I hope for Georgia's sake that he doesn't stick around and I don't know. I think, I think it's, I think it's going to happen. I was hoping, I was hoping that he would be pissed off. They didn't give him the job, but obviously he was behind you or there's no chance we're screwed. Um, yeah, dude, I,
01:17:44
Speaker
I think I think the game against Kentucky kind of solidified that Texas is the number one team in the country and they they should be ah until further notice. Alright, so that is the week that is going to happen in the Sunbelt.
01:17:59
Speaker
It's obviously gonna happen the exact way we talked about it and the exact way we picked ah After we were all so terrible picking last week I think Matt and I each won like a game or two um And I think you were the best of the bunch But I think you were still under 500 or at right at 500 You gave me my my flowers last week and then I went three and five on the picks Well, we weren't much better So, you know, it it's I think it was just a weird week and it was kind of weird to get it I feel like I get a better temperature check once Sunbelt like play starts up but when you're playing all these teams that we just don't have any context for it's it's really hard to find something to kind of grab onto and be like no I know what's gonna happen
Conclusion and Listener Engagement
01:18:45
Speaker
so as we sort of wrap up here let everybody know where they can find you on social media and then we'll get out of here
01:18:50
Speaker
Yeah, I'm on Twitter at Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O. That's where you can find me. I post about the pod. I post about ah high school sports now because I have a big boy job. Let's go. And yeah, you can find Matt at MeegesMatt.
01:19:08
Speaker
on Twitter. So he's not here. He doesn't deserve the plug. And Ryan send us home. um You can find the show on X at warm weather fans. You can find me on X at Watch the Stone. um Like I said, feel free to send us emails. We would love to take you know questions, comments. ah We may you know If we feel like enough people are interested in it, we can also do a ah YouTube live stream one night ah where we do an episode live. Or you know if people have questions for us, we can field those on the air. you know we can We can kind of do whatever. like Even if we have to eschew um you know a normal type of episode for more of like a Q and&A, like that's totally fine with us as well.
01:19:53
Speaker
um Yeah, that would be great. um But yeah, that that is the week that was in the Sunbelt and the week that will be. Thank you everybody for joining us. Rate, review, subscribe, wherever you get your podcasts. We will be back next week, hopefully with Matt in tow. This has been Warm Weather Fans, the Sunbelt Podcast.