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Extended Clip - Milan Derby Preview: Inter Milan vs AC Milan - Probable XIs, Tactical Analysis & Prediction (Ep. 359)
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Ahead of the Milan Derby in the Serie A this Saturday at 18.00 CET when Inter Milan host AC Milan at a jampacked San Siro, Nima Tavallaey and Carlo Garganese preview and break down all the main talking points as well as preview and analyze the clash tactically and statistically.
This is a clip from the weekly Thursday episode of the Italian Football Podcast.
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Transcript
Introduction to the Italian Football Weekend
00:00:02
Speaker
Welcome to the Italian football podcast. Let's talk about the weekend.
Milan Derby Preview: Scudetto Showdown
00:00:08
Speaker
Milan Derby preview. Let's preview the game. So this Saturday, Saturday evening, early evening game, Inter versus Milan at San Siro. It's an early Scudetso showdown already. Two teams with 100% records, two teams who have been far and away the best teams in
00:00:25
Speaker
in Serie A so fast. It's going to be an absolutely fascinating match. Cannot wait for it. Let's go through some of the key talking points.
Team Lineups: Inter's Stability vs Milan's Uncertainties
00:00:35
Speaker
First of all, probable 11s. Inter, they're going to be unchanged again, aren't they? I expect them to be unchanged. I expect them to play the same lineup.
00:00:46
Speaker
Turam Lautaro up front, Dimar Komicitarian, Cela Noglubarella, Dumfries, Bastoni, Defray, Darmian, and of course Jan Sommeringo.
00:01:01
Speaker
Milan, though, do have a few uncertainties due to injury because, I mean, Tamori suspended because he got sent off against Roma, so that's clear. Kalulu is struggling with injury, so it looks like it's going to be Simon Kier that comes in to partner Malek Tial. So that's clearly straight away a potential weak spot for Inter to exploit.
00:01:28
Speaker
The rest of the team will be unchanged with the exception of the uncertainty of Olivier Giroud. So that is the question mark there. Will Giroud be fit? He got injured in the first France game of the international break, came off early in the first half. So we'll know probably on Thursday or Friday on the training sessions whether he's going to be fit. If not,
00:01:53
Speaker
you're looking at Luka
Tactical Adjustments: Milan's Defensive Strategies
00:01:54
Speaker
Jovic. So again, that's a big question mark there for Milan, seeing as what Jovic has done. Unless they surprise us and they don't play Jovic, they play someone else there, Liao or Okafor in kind of a more unnatural role, we'll see. So yeah, so there's more uncertainties there for Milan. Tactical battles, Nima.
00:02:23
Speaker
Obviously, inter-dominated Milan in the key games in the business end of last season, especially in those Champions League semi-final matches. But Milan have now changed. They've gone to a three in midfield. It's going to be a four-three-three. Milan also have a better bench than last season. They also have more intensity. So, assuming Giroud is fit, we're probably looking at a certainly a more... It's not going to be the one-sided game, is it, that we saw in the Champions League?
00:02:52
Speaker
No, no, no, no, this is going to be a different game. I expect a much tighter game. I expect Milan to not be as gung-ho as people think that Pioli is going to be. I think with Simon Kiar and Maleccell playing, which looks very likely in central defense, I expect Milan to actually play like they did against Napoli in the Champions League quarterfinal.
Pioli's Strategy: Avoiding Another Defeat Against Inzaghi
00:03:20
Speaker
I expect them to be much deeper, much balanced, because I think, I mean, you can make the argument that had they in
00:03:31
Speaker
had they played, if they had no suspensions and injuries and so on, that he probably would want to impose himself to just kind of show that we are Milan, this is how we want to play against City, this is how we play against Lece, this is how we play against Inter. But I think with this particular situation, and we're so early on in the season, match day four,
00:03:54
Speaker
I think the attitude is don't lose, because it would be, if I'm not mistaken, that would be his fifth loss of the calendar year in the Milan Derby.
Statistical Insights: Inter's Recent Success Over Milan
00:04:06
Speaker
It would be in the Supercoppa, the Serie A, and twice in the Champions League in 2023, Pioli's loss to Inzaghi.
00:04:15
Speaker
in the Derby de la Madonina across three competitions. I think he just wants to stop that rut. I was looking at Ante Jukic, one of our patrons, and a good friend of mine, he works for Optanalyst, and he's written a statistical preview which will be out today or tomorrow, but he sent it to me.
00:04:42
Speaker
So I could, you know, to use in our preview here, so thank you very much. We will be sharing the links on our social media when it comes out. So all the stats that I'm reading are from his, are from Opta and from Ante Jukic's article that is coming out.
Giroud vs. de Vrij: Pivotal Matchup
00:04:59
Speaker
But, you know, over the past three seasons, Inter have won seven games against Milan, Milan three, two draws in all competitions.
00:05:07
Speaker
So I expect that to stop. I expect it to see a much more caged, much more closed affair. I don't think, I think for both coaches, this is about not losing more than anything. Yeah, I mean, I think if we get to that 60 minute mark and it's nil, nil, then yeah, I could probably see that happening. But
00:05:32
Speaker
If we're going to talk predictions, if we're going to do predictions, I think it would depend on if Giroud plays. If Giroud plays, then I'm going to go draw. If Giroud doesn't play, I'm going to go into win. Yeah, I think the Giroud factor is really important because Stefan Defray
00:05:54
Speaker
He was turned by Olivier Giroud, and that's become a meme now. It's become, or as you would call it, a maimé.
00:06:10
Speaker
That worries me, also because of the fact that Giroux is so good at holding the ball up and pinning the ball down and giving Milan the breathing space they need. And I know that if I struggle against Giroux, he has.
Inter's Offensive Strength: Second to Napoli
00:06:27
Speaker
If he were a cherubi, I wouldn't be worried.
00:06:29
Speaker
because Giroud won't beat Acherbi for pace, but physically they can match each other. But Defray in the middle, I'm not sure he can match Giroud physically. I'd rather have Defray against Jović than against Giroud. So maybe we see Acherbi start for Inter. We'll have to wait and see. If Nzagi thinks he's going to start Giroud, I think Acherbi, if he's fit, he'll play.
00:06:54
Speaker
Um, but other than that, the predictions, I, I, I see a lot of people saying this, well, you know, it's going to be a, uh, a goal fest and so on. I mean, opta supercomputer favors into, according to you and this article to, you know, giving them a 46% chance of victory in comparison to me last 25%. Okay. That's pretty, that's pretty significant. Yeah. Yeah. Um, and.
00:07:21
Speaker
One interesting stat is that over the opening month in Europe's top five leagues, Inter are second only to Napoli for shots per 90 minutes in the penalty area this season. And that's in all of Europe's top five
Milan's Playing Style: Inverted Fullbacks and Defensive Focus
00:07:35
Speaker
leagues. Napoli at 15.33, Inter at 14.33.
00:07:39
Speaker
Do you have the full table there? No, I don't. And as for Giroud, he leads Milan for expected goals combined with expected assists per 90 minutes so far this season at 1.65. So he's only trailing Milik and Berardi in the Serie A for the combined statics, XG and XA. And that speaks to your point about how important Giroud is to Milan in the offensive phase as well.
00:08:09
Speaker
Oh, absolutely crucial. And also he's, you know, he's experienced as well in these kind of games. I think Inter do have the more experience for sure. You know, they've got more experienced players in their team. I do feel that Tiau Kia is an area that if Toram and Lautoro players have started the season, I think they can definitely target that for sure. Definitely.
00:08:35
Speaker
Yeah, it is. But if we're going to talk about like how Milan are going to play, I mean, talking from a Milan perspective.
00:08:45
Speaker
It's really interesting. I mean, we've spoken about the inverted fullbacks. Ante's take on this, I think it's really interesting. I'm going to read it from the article. It's important to highlight that the primary function of inverting fullbacks in phases of possession is as a defensive mechanism, keeping distances between players shorter and theoretically safeguarding against defensive transition. It should therefore serve as no surprise then that among the 31 teams in Europe's top five leagues,
00:09:09
Speaker
to have averaged more than 400 completed passes, Milan have the second lowest percentage of progressive passes received at 4.23%. The sample sizes are small, of course, but it's notable that with similar implementation in possession, Manchester City are third lowest so far at 4.27. Las Palmas hold the lowest at 4.04%. Yet the difference between Milan and City or Arsenal is that the latter two are pinning the defenses in their own half.
00:09:38
Speaker
Among those 31 teams so far, Milan have the lowest percentage of passes that end in the attacking third at 5.31% in comparison to Arsenal, who have the highest at 10.26%. So, you know, Milan are score a lot, but they are
00:09:57
Speaker
They play a bit differently, and they're much more defensively solid, I guess, is the conclusion to draw from this. And that there is essentially a double pivot of Krunic and Calabria to safeguard this defensively. Well, actually, Krunic actually was falling back into a third center bat. Yeah, well, that's what he means, that Krunic and Calabria become like a double pivot when they push up in the attacking phase.
Key Players: Impact of Martinez and Leao's Performances
00:10:27
Speaker
I mean, Milan averaged the sixth lowest number of shots in the penalty area, 8.33, with a no penalty XG of 1.08.
00:10:35
Speaker
among that sample of 31 teams in Europe. I love this, Nimr. Nimr embracing the underlying stats of football. I remember a year or two years ago, you were like death to all the XG and underlying stats. What I have said consistently throughout this is if you use it as a tool to explain reality, it's fantastic. But if you're just going to read it straight up and down and think it proves anything, it doesn't. That's what I've always said. Go and check the tapes. Check the tapes.
00:11:06
Speaker
I love it. I love it. It is important though. It is very useful for seeing little patterns. But again, as he says throughout his article, the sample size is really small. We're only three games in. Well, that's what I think is interesting because both teams have been so good and Milan especially, this does become a big asset test for them so far, how they do. Inter,
00:11:33
Speaker
had the first two games a couple of pretty straightforward games and then they obviously played Fiorentina and who were a level high and they smashed them 4-0. But the key to build on that is Lautaro Martinez and I'm reading here from his article he says he's been critical so far for Inter, he's averaged more touches and progressive passes to start this term this season than in any of his previous five with Inter and it's not affecting his ability to arrive in the penalty area either.
00:12:03
Speaker
However, with his 16 shots, only one less than Napoli's Victor Oseman in the Serie A so far. So Lautaro is definitely is the focal point and has also improved. The fact that he has so many touches and progressive passes, but it hasn't impacted his ability to end up in finishing positions in the penalty area so far.
00:12:26
Speaker
You know, it's very, that's a really important point. So Laotaro is going to be key. And I'm sure he will be. And so we'll let Rafael Liao on the other side and Teo Hernandez, who often plays badly against him. It's about time Teo started performing in the Derby because he's always underperformed in the Derbys and Teo Hernandez. So Milan need big performances from their big players.