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International Election Special: Guyana 2025
29 Plays30 days ago
On 1 September 2025, Guyana heads to the polls in one of the most closely watched elections in its history. With the country transformed by its oil boom and politics shaped by fragile coalitions, the stakes could not be higher.
In this special episode, Matt Davis speaks with political analyst Dr. Duane Edwards of the University of Guyana about the key players, shifting alliances, and what’s at risk for Guyana’s democracy. From the contest between the incumbent PPP/C and a revitalised opposition, to the wider economic and social pressures driving voter sentiment, the conversation offers a clear-eyed look at a decisive moment for the nation.
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Transcript
Introduction to Guyana and Its Significance
00:00:09
Speaker
Hello and welcome to the Observations podcast. I'm Matt Davis, the International Elections Correspondent. Today, we have another international election special.
00:00:20
Speaker
We'll be focusing on a country on the northern coast of South America, which has some upcoming elections. The country is roughly the size of Great Britain, with a population of roughly 830,000 people.
00:00:32
Speaker
Despite physically being a part of South America, it has strong ties to the Caribbean, and is a founding member of the Caribbean community. Formerly a British colony, Guyana gained independence in 1966 and is currently a part of the Commonwealth.
00:00:47
Speaker
The official language there is English, making it the only South American country with English as its official language. It is a very multicultural and multi-ethnic country with people of American Indian, Indian and African descent.
00:01:00
Speaker
As a result, it has national holidays that include Christian, Muslim and Hindu holidays. Some sites to see there include the Demerara floating bridge, one of the largest floating bridges in the world, and the widest single drop waterfall, Cayetur Falls.
00:01:15
Speaker
The country's links to the Caribbean are part of the reason why it is a critical cricket playing nation, with Clive Lloyd, the Guyanese cricketer, going on to become captain of the West Indies cricket team.
00:01:26
Speaker
But who
Guest Introduction: Dr. Duane Edwards
00:01:27
Speaker
might you know from Guyana? Well, some famous people from Guyana include the musical art artist, Eddie Grant, Baroness Valerie Ann Amos, the first famed woman to join the UK cabinet, Chris Brasher, co-founder of the London Marathon, and professor professional wrestler Ezekiel Jackson.
00:01:45
Speaker
These are just some of the famous people from Guyana.
Ethnic Groups and Party Politics in Guyana
00:01:48
Speaker
Now joining me today to talk about the elections upcoming in Guyana is Dr. Duane Edwards, who has written extensively on Guyanese politics and society.
00:01:57
Speaker
Thank you for joining me today. Thank you for having me, Matt. It's a pleasure. I'm aware that there are many different ethnicities in the country. I was wondering, how does that play out electorally?
00:02:10
Speaker
Well, traditionally, if, okay, Ghana, first of all, I must commend you for that little background you provided earlier. Right? Yes. So Ghana is comprised demographically speaking of, we usually say of six main ethnic groups, but I would say really of three main ethnic groups.
00:02:33
Speaker
Afro-Guinese, descendants of enslaved Africans brought from ah West Africa during the era of European enslavement. so And Indo-Guinese who arrived afterwards as indentured laborers to labor on the plantation that was left by the Africans after emancipation.
00:03:03
Speaker
And then they were indigenous Guyanese who were always here in the Guyanas. They're always people, Guyanas. And however, they have been truly in caution of the Europeans. They have been displaced somewhat geographically speaking.
00:03:21
Speaker
So they occupied mainly the interland areas of the country. The Indo-Gangis occupied, because they they were serving on the plantations and so as indentured laborers, they occupied mostly the rural areas.
00:03:35
Speaker
And Africans who were pushed ah more into the public the public sector, they occupied mostly the the urban areas. So we have these three main demographic groups.
00:03:47
Speaker
Apart from these three main demographic groups, we have, the of course, a mixture of the three, which we call the mixed race. But historically, we also have pockets of Chinese and pockets of ah Portuguese.
00:04:05
Speaker
And now, there are also a lot of persons coming from other parts of ah South America. ah Particularly, you have the Venezuelans coming over for the border and so forth.
00:04:21
Speaker
But in terms of the elections, the the relationship between the these demographic differences and electoral choices and so on, the four main voting blocs are the Indo-Gainese, the Afro-Gainese, the mixed group, and the the indigenous Guainese.
00:04:42
Speaker
And historically speaking, Afro-Ghanese
00:04:47
Speaker
have placed their support squarely ah behind one party, while Indo-Guyanese have placed their votes squarely beyond behind another party.
Historical Party Split and Ethnic Associations
00:04:59
Speaker
And the indigenous Guyanese, because there hasn't really been a party that has successfully aligned themselves with the interests of the indigenous Guyanese to the extent and that you know the the the relationship between that demographic and the party became intertwine, that group tends mix their vote between the two dominant parties, which is which are the People's National Congress and the People's Progressive Party.
Fictional Election Story Break
00:05:35
Speaker
We'll now go into a little more into that, but we'll first take a quick break.
00:05:47
Speaker
It begins, as it always does, with a vision. In the quiet streets of Brody Ferry, one man rose above the hundrum of politics of the day.
00:06:01
Speaker
His name was Bob Servant. Businessman, dreamer, cheeseburger magnet the only candidate bold enough to pay local dog owners not to walk their dogs in Dawson Park so the grass could reach its full majesty.
00:06:24
Speaker
He promised free wellies for every man, woman, and child. The color, council issue, the size, you'll grow into them. He vowed to put the ferry back on the map, preferably larger than Dundee, and N1 Unforgettable Hustings to tell the best bus story ever told.
00:06:47
Speaker
ah story involving why Lulu wasn't given the blind date job. and how Scotland will always choose Sean Connery over Roger Moore. Like Richard Haney, rousing a packed hall, speaking of honor and destiny.
00:07:03
Speaker
But Bob's destiny was different. His speeches could leap from that bust story. retold in ever greater detail to the sovereignty of the South Atlantic.
00:07:16
Speaker
And in his BBC debate, with the wind whipping in from the Tay, he delivered the words that would echo through the ages. Give us back the Falklands!
00:07:29
Speaker
From Dunny on the Wall's single vote to Brody Ferry's greatest son, we revisit the fictional elections that shaped our screens and the truths they whispered to us all.
00:07:43
Speaker
Brody Ferry. Independent spirit. Eternal legend.
Forbes Burnham's Influence on Political Parties
00:07:56
Speaker
And welcome back. You just mentioned the two main political parties there in Guyana. um My understanding is that they were both started by the same person, a Guyanese politician called Forbes Burnham.
00:08:09
Speaker
Could you tell us a bit more about how he became so influential as to have created the two parties that are still major players today? Yes, Forbes Burnham had a critical role in the formation of both major parties in Guyana.
00:08:23
Speaker
The first party, however, which is the People's Progressive Party, it evolved out of a less formal group that was that was known as the Political Action Committee.
00:08:37
Speaker
And it was, by the very as the very name suggests, it was ah political argument like It was an organization that was aimed at political education, political mobilization, and so forth.
00:08:49
Speaker
And then it eventually evolved into a formal political party known as the People's Progressive Party. That party was headed by Dr. Cherry Jagan.
00:09:01
Speaker
I know you might be familiar with the name. And along with Dr. Chetty Jagon, there were other members from different sectors and racial and ethnic background, and one of which included Forbes Barnum.
00:09:18
Speaker
And because of ah later follow, both on ideological and other grounds, Forbes Barnum ah formed his own People's Progressive Party.
00:09:29
Speaker
So at a particular historical juncture, there were two People's Progressive Party competing with each other in the political sphere, until ah ah Forbes Barnum decided that, you know what,
00:09:43
Speaker
can't have the two of the same thing competing with each other. So he gave this party a ah different label and it became known as the People's National Congress.
00:09:55
Speaker
And as I said, the main difference between the two parties and the two leaders associated with the party, because they were two, what we would call, or what Max Weber would call ah charismatic leaders of their time.
00:10:10
Speaker
i And there mean yeah some would argue that the main difference was ideological because Chetty Jagan was known as a very devoted Marxist politician while for while Forbes Barnum was less radical, a more pra pragmatic politician.
00:10:34
Speaker
He espoused socialism, no doubt, but he wasn't doctrinaire in the sense that Chedi Jagan was doctrinaire. And, you know, the doctrinaire Marxism caused somewhat of a crisis in the country, which ne necessitated ah movement away from that kind of a radical espousal of Marxist ideology.
00:11:01
Speaker
And... It caused a split in the very People's Progressive Party, the very first People's Progressive Party. So you had the Barnum faction and you had the Chelly Jägem faction.
00:11:14
Speaker
And of course, because of the, as i as as I'd written in my book, if i I don't know if this is an opportunity to make the plug here, Ethnic as and Structural Pluralism in Guyana.
00:11:29
Speaker
Although on the face of things, the split was ideological because of the social structure of the society, the split ended up taking on ethnic and racial form,
Ethnic and Geographic Impact on Occupations
00:11:41
Speaker
right? And which which continues up to today. So this split between the ethnicities, is that also based on other kind of social...
00:11:55
Speaker
demographics as well then? Yes. that One of the interesting things about Guyana is that the difference in race, ethnicity corresponds with other social differences to some extent. Occupational, geography. Well, I spoke about the geographic difference ah not so long ago when I indicated that Afro-Guinese usually um
00:12:26
Speaker
inhabit their urban areas mostly. There's generally speaking, of course, there are exceptions, and so both historical and cross-sectional exceptions. and so Indo-Gainese generally and in inhabit the rural areas and indigenous Guainese, they generally live in the interland.
00:12:43
Speaker
So that' that's one dimension of differences or separation. whereby race and ethnicity is associated also with geographic differences.
00:12:56
Speaker
And you have also occupational differences, because if we will be separated geographically, then there's implications there for occupational ah separation also.
00:13:09
Speaker
Persons living in the urban area, they tend to work mostly in the public sector and of course in old steel and retail commerce and so forth. Persons in the rural area that tend to gravitate more to agriculture and so.
00:13:23
Speaker
Persons in the interland mining and so forth. So there are those occupational differences. And then there are institutional differences that that um evolve around those.
00:13:35
Speaker
For example, let's say representative unions coming up in these different occupational niche tend to also have ethnic on the opinions and political parties form also follow along that same line.
2020 Election Turmoil and Judicialization
00:13:57
Speaker
We'll move on to talk about the last election, that's okay. You mentioned in an article in the Journal of Eastern Caribbean Studies that the 2020 election was at risk of pushing the country towards social conflict.
00:14:11
Speaker
Now, Could you explain a bit more about this? Yes, well, it was one of the elections that, well, I won't say placed Guyana on the map, but one of the elections that but ah we became very notorious for, and that is because the the long, drawn-out nature of the election, the election was held on March the 2nd,
00:14:37
Speaker
And we didn't decide on a winner until around August of the same year. right And of course, there were elections were marred by attempts at manipulating figures.
00:14:53
Speaker
And so, and of course, international observers and bodies had to step in and offer and pronounce on those attempts.
00:15:05
Speaker
And to even the United States, your very own our very own country through their representative also pronounced on the those attempts and with the intent of ensuring things according to rules and regulations of the country.
00:15:26
Speaker
So ah the elections, there were some attempts to manipulate the outcomes. And as i I've written in the article, that was because the election was very high state.
00:15:41
Speaker
And even before that outcome, I had discussion with my colleagues in political science, in economics, in sociology, and most were expressing a fear of things degenerating ah to to so so a level of violence and conflict.
00:16:03
Speaker
Fortunate for us, and i one of my colleagues had even written about what occurred, and the label that they applied to what occurred, or what they garnered from what occurred, is that what we have seen as a kind of transition to what what she called judicialization of our conflicts, right? Which was which was fortunate in a sense, because in other countries,
00:16:32
Speaker
marked by ethnic conflict and ethnic competition, we do not have that judicialization of conflicts. We have actual bloody conflicts in the streets, right?
00:16:45
Speaker
Fortunately for Guyana, we we haven't degenerated to that extent, right? And ju the the judicialization of our conflict is a kind of sublimation of our competition and differences.
00:16:59
Speaker
part of the um reason for the high stakes there was that ah extraction had begun on some oil reserves found in like off Guyana's coast.
00:17:10
Speaker
And so was there a fear that the groups representing or sort of representing different ethnic groups would favor those in some way with the resources gained from the oil?
00:17:26
Speaker
Well, certainly. The country is known in the past as beset by high levels of inequality and skewed distribution of the economic spoils.
00:17:39
Speaker
And so based on which parties in power, we tend to distribute spoils in line with the supporters of that party.
00:17:53
Speaker
So at this particular juncture, which is in 2020, we all were seeing an opportunity for us to, and I should make this clear at this time, Ghana was always a country ah grappling with economic issues. At one time, we were labeled a highly indebted poor country.
00:18:11
Speaker
So you can you can think about our social and economic circumstances from that standpoint.
00:18:19
Speaker
ah very low um loww wage economy, ah persons working for high levels of poverty, unemployment, and so forth. So when the news about the oil fines and the quantity and quality of those oil fines were made, it of course generated and engendered hope among the population.
00:18:41
Speaker
But that hope was dashed by the fact that our political system tends to ah distribute spoils, economic spoils, social spoils, in favor of the one political group.
00:18:57
Speaker
And as I said, Guyana, the correspondence between institutional differences and racial ethnic differences is very high.
Impact of Oil Discoveries on Elections
00:19:05
Speaker
So a distribution of spoils in favor of political party supporters is at the same time a distribution of spoils in favor of, largely speaking, one ethnic racial group.
00:19:18
Speaker
So of course, our political competition and the zero sum nature of that competition
00:19:26
Speaker
caused a lot of fear, fear of loss, fear of not being part of ah benefiting from the spoils of the economy and so forth. And so both parties went in and their supporters, backing them, went in with the a sense that, you know what, as as we we either win this election or we lose out big time.
00:19:52
Speaker
ah So the election was accompanied by, is characterized by high stakes. And on account of that, many persons, many scholars, most persons that I spoke to in political science, sociology, economics, and so forth,
00:20:07
Speaker
were expecting that things would have gotten really out of hand. But as I indicated before, although elections were drawn out and they were clear attempts to so manipulate the elections in different ways, the Guyanese people have managed, and of course the parties represented them in some cases,
00:20:30
Speaker
have managed to sublimate those conflicts and avoid them degenerating in any massive way and into bloody conflicts on the street.
00:20:41
Speaker
ah Most of our conflicts played out through the judicial system, which provided provided us an opportunity of really clarifying some of our our laws, rules, regulations, and so forth regarding and surrounding elections.
00:20:57
Speaker
right but The oil and the oil fines had a lot to do with, but it wasn't the only cause of the long and drawn out nature of the elections.
Current Election and New Political Dynamics
00:21:11
Speaker
Now, just to bring it up to this current election, you feel as if there is any risk of a similar situation happening from September the 1st?
00:21:22
Speaker
It's hard to say. It's hard to say. But um from my own estimation, I think the dynamics are a little different because in the 2020 elections, there were two main groups going at each other.
00:21:39
Speaker
In this current election, there is there is a third group and that third group and the emergence of that third group on the scene tend to dull that binary competitive kind of politics that we are accustomed to in the past.
00:21:57
Speaker
The third group seems to be doing well, pulling from each ah support base. And I think that third group could be used as a buffer against
00:22:11
Speaker
any attempt to derail the political system and the electoral outcome. So while I can't say with any degree of certainty that things will not, because the stakes are higher now, because we, at that time in 2010 to in 2020, we hadn't yet, although we had started produce the oil, we hadn't yet benefited from remuneration or monies
00:22:42
Speaker
are they and money So far, we are up today. We are producing, like, for example, nearly three-quarters of a million barrels per day.
00:22:56
Speaker
That's a lot of oil, a lot of money, ah with the the promise that maybe by by year end that amount can go up. So that's a lot of money coming into the economy.
00:23:09
Speaker
So the stakes are higher, and the stakes are growing as we speak.
00:23:15
Speaker
So the my point is that the circumstances, the environment remains the same, but I think there are some some different dynamics. i don't I don't think anyone wants a repeat of what transpired in 2020.
00:23:29
Speaker
And i I'm speaking for both the people and the political parties. Political parties, however, have to be mature enough to know that, okay, if you enter a competition with these rules in place,
00:23:43
Speaker
then you have to abide by the rules at the end of the game. Easier said than done because a lot of stakes, a lot of interests are on the line.
00:23:54
Speaker
So I understand on account of that, anything can happen at any time. But I do not see ah things degenerating into so what they degenerated into in 2020.
Conclusion and Sponsor Acknowledgement
00:24:09
Speaker
I see a more peaceful outcome And
00:24:16
Speaker
principally or primarily because of the emergence of third force, which seems to be a strong enough force that could be used as a buffer in onto the political scene.
00:24:28
Speaker
Thank you very much for joining me today. i really appreciate the background information you've given me. Thank very much. You're welcome and thanks for having me. It's always a pleasure to speak on aspects of Guyana society, politics, culture, economy.
00:24:49
Speaker
i hope i do hope your your listeners enjoy the tidbits of information that we've provided. Thank you very much.
00:25:08
Speaker
The Observations podcast is being brought to you by Democracy Volunteers, the UK's leading election observation group. Democracy Volunteers is non-partisan and does not necessarily share the opinions of participants in the podcast.
00:25:21
Speaker
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