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Top 10 Anticipation Throwers in the NFL
22 Plays1 year ago
PD and Padhi discuss what anticipation is at the NFL QB position, and which 10 QBs, along with some honorable mentions for the list, are the best at this skill.
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Transcript
Podcast Returns with New Series
00:02:22
Speaker
What's going on everybody welcome back to another episode of the passing down podcast I'm your host Rahul and I'm here with my coz PD PD say what's up? What's up? And I hope you guys are excited to have us back. Obviously we're returning from a bit of a hiatus as the season ended and all the hype with the draft has kind of died down at this point. And unfortunately this is a little bit of a dull period for the NFL season, but we're back with some off-season content. I think we're going to make this a series talking about in general a little bit more
00:02:57
Speaker
In-depth coverage of quarterbacks traits where we kind of rank a lot of the league's top quarterbacks top tennis to be specific in all the different kind of categories that we like to talk about throughout the year. into stuff such as anticipation, accuracy, etc. We'll get into it as time goes on. And I guess this marks the return with ah from our Super Bowl episode and marks the start of our next year. So a lot of what we're going to be talking about is going to be in preparation of next year, what we expect out of guys
00:03:32
Speaker
going into the following season.
Understanding Quarterback Anticipation
00:03:35
Speaker
And with that being said, I'll let PD kind of break down the concept of that and then we can get right into our list. Today we're going to be talking about anticipation.
00:03:46
Speaker
Yeah, so kind of diving into what the scope of this is and what our criteria is. So anticipation, we're going to be defining that as um the frequency and the value of passes being thrown before the receiver comes out of their break um and or separates from the defender that's guarding them. um And we think that this is valuable because it can help shield interceptions at times, it can help set up yak opportunities, um even at the expense of accuracy because the hindi coordination standard goes up when you throw ah before the receiver has separated from their break. Anticipation is really valuable, mostly in turning solidly positive plays into explosive play opportunities.
00:04:30
Speaker
um As we'll see with the guys close to the top of our list, um a lot of these guys end up manifesting their anticipation skills in either turn over the play avoidance or um extremely explosive plays, particularly if you anticipate over the middle of the field as we'll see um with some of the guys towards the top. um And in light of that, I also wanted to point out one more thing um that I was explaining to Potty. um that we're not going to be over indexing too much on avoiding negatives with the anticipation because what you'll tend to find if you watch in a film with the anticipation in my opinion is that guys who end up getting punished for anticipating um let's say I can think of like a perfect example where ah Bryce Young has a turnover they play in his game against the Saints
00:05:18
Speaker
on Monday Night Football in 2023 where he throws with extreme anticipation to an outbreak in route to Adam Thielen but it ends up going right to the defender's hands partially because Adam Thielen just doesn't get any separation and if he was able to use his physicality to get open there ah could have resulted in a completion. So what we want to focus on here is generating positives with that anticipation um and less of kind of the potential that their anticipation could have. um Of course, this is going to be a projection list for 2024. So there is going to be some um a little bit of mental curbing involved with situation and how um the quarterback's confidence will change as a result of that situation. um So some guys who haven't shown enough evidence to put them in the list
00:06:04
Speaker
as of 2023. They may make our honorable mentions um and we'll kind of have that discussion. So let's start off with your first honorable mention,
Honorable Mentions: Cousins and Rodgers
00:06:15
Speaker
Potty. Who do you have as your first guy? Yeah, ah before we get started, would you like to hear the whole list of honorable mentions or just get into the first guy? Just the first guy. Let's take a right. All right. To start off, the first honorable mention I had, and I believe talking about this before the episode, I have them a little bit earlier than P.D. would, and I'll get into that in a second. And that's Kirk Cousins. Now, Kirk Cousins, I think, in a lot of situations, would have not just been an honorable mention, would have been on the list. And for many of the past five to maybe even a few more years,
00:06:52
Speaker
in the NFL he definitely would have been in this top 10. Unfortunately as we know last season he went down with a season ending injury and at his age definitely a career altering injury and although anticipation is a primarily mental characteristic and a lot of the time it doesn't necessarily go with age I think As you have injuries of this magnitude, overall confidence and just returning to the same feel for a player, it's just hard to get back to that same level. And I feel like as he deteriorates athletically, it's going to be hard to ah put the same kind of zip on the ball and anticipate at the same level and still deliver the same amount of throws that he was doing.
00:07:38
Speaker
Because obviously for a large portion of the last couple of years, his anticipation going to a guy like Justin Jefferson was incredible. Produced so many insane seasons going across the middle of the field to him. And it's just one of the characteristics that's been a huge part of his game for a while. I just expect to see it dwindling going into a team next season that maybe will be a little bit more vertical and straightforward based than an anticipating team in the Falcons and obviously with the injury. potentially holding him back. I expect him to be an honorable mention going into next year but he's definitely someone capable of leaping back into the list during the season depending on how his recovery goes and how he plays in the season.
00:08:23
Speaker
Yeah, so to add on what you're saying, so Kirk did make my list just because I think he's coming from like such a high point. I would have said he is pushing the upper echelon of this list in 2023 or something like that. um But the injury does give me some pause because he's lost a little bit of rhythm, um a little bit of extra time away from the sport. But the bigger thing for me is that joining a new team is going to take a little bit of time to develop um that's play speed level confidence. um And so I could see him taking a little bit of time to adjust and so the overall value that he adds from his anticipation wouldn't be towards like the top five where I would have put him.
00:09:00
Speaker
in 2023 or something like that. But he does make my list. He came in at eight for me. um I still do have confidence. he's He's just he's such a consistent player. um And for what's the better part of half a decade now, he's just been an absolute machine of accuracy, anticipation and timing. um The one thing that is true of him is that he's never had to um overcome adversity in terms of a severe injury like this. So it should be interesting to see where his career goes from here. um But i I still do have confidence for a guy whose game is so heavily reliant on the skill based attributes that he possesses. um I think those dwindling seem unlikely with the type of work that he puts in. um So who is your second honorable mention, considering that Kirk made my list?
00:09:46
Speaker
yeah and forget and and i absolutely agree i think her with the baseline level he's at that's an argument for currently being in the five to ten range and hopefully i'm rooting for the guy i hope he gets to that point but just looking at it with his age it's tough to say and speaking of i guess older quarterbacks who i'm guess being a little bit lenient to and i know we disagree here as well uh...
Emerging Talents: Smith and Love
00:10:10
Speaker
with my next honorable mention i have aaron rogers Now looking into Aaron Rodgers obviously last season he played a handful of plays goes down with the season ending injury much like her cousins did in the past season and Aaron Rodgers is also coming off of season in 2022 in Green Bay where he didn't necessarily play his best football but looking into that season personally I felt
00:10:35
Speaker
that season we did see a worse version of Rogers but he seemed clearly injured for a lot of that season and a lot of his supporting cast in that season was very subpar to what he had in Devontae Adams going into all those other seasons he had previously looking at the two back-to-back MVP seasons for example where he showed elite levels of anticipation at that point And I think in that period of time we probably would have had Aaron Rodgers towards the top of the list. Now I know a full season worth of volume in 2022 and I guess the year apart in 2023 where he didn't play football and the recovery from injury could cause him to have a very similar decline to Kirk Cousins to the point where he's out of this list completely but I'm just betting on the
00:11:22
Speaker
What I feel like is all time level damn near anticipation with Aaron Rodgers when he is at his best. Probably of elite level when the last time we saw him anticipating at a high level. And I think the core he has around him this year. and hopefully a healthy version of him coming back this year should get him to return to a point where he's an honorable mention on this list but I absolutely could see the other argument where he's far away from this because the range of outcomes with Rogers this year in my opinion is pretty big.
00:11:56
Speaker
So Rogers doesn't make my honorable mentions. I feel like just from as as a starting point, I've been lower on Rogers, I think post 2017 injury in terms of anticipation, just because his desire to throw routes over the middle of the field where You require more anticipation has gone down quite a bit um He still anticipates out breaking routes deeper down the field decently um but the the bulk of his offense for a large part of his time in Green Bay being stuff off screens and goal balls Just kind of eliminates the anticipation component because you just don't really anticipate those routes um but yeah at one point a long time ago he was
00:12:38
Speaker
a high volume great anticipator. um I think that now he probably after coming off a major injury a lot of time away from the the speed of the game um plus you know like him being essentially the offensive coordinator um i think we see a lot more of those greens and goal balls and stuff that doesn't really require anticipation um and stuff that doesn't require him to put the ball in harm's way um i.e not throwing as much over the middle of the field so i don't really have much confidence in rogers
00:13:11
Speaker
being a high-level anticipator again. I think he just kind of wants to stick to routes that are simple to read out and like attack mismatches that he finds with his receivers. All right, so let's go to... I think this is your... Actually, no, this is your third or your fifth honorable mention. So who do you have here? This is my third of four honorable mentions. Okay, third out of four, not third. So go for it. Yeah. And third right here we're going to go with Geno Smith and he's someone who I think was kind of floating around this tier of anticipators for a while now ever since he's made his return to Seattle. I think initially he may have been even higher so on this list but right now I think what
00:13:53
Speaker
his level of the play declining a little bit. He is still an honorable mention and I think even though we don't take negative negative avoid avoidance into account completely, I think it comes to a point where you have to end with Gino. I think it has reached that point. but the higher end or the positives that will come as a result of his anticipation or some of the best we see out of a lot of the quarterbacks in this league. When you're looking at his go routes, his kind of pinpoint passes on your fades and those sort of those sort of route combinations when he's targeting outside the numbers, I feel like he gets those out so early and it's always on the money at the right spot. He's great at that. And if he had a little bit more variety to how
00:14:39
Speaker
He anticipates he may be even more so on this list but in the points of his game where he does use anticipation, he does it at a very high level. Yeah, so he was right in my honorable mentions as well. um Great anticipator on an outbreak in railroads really attacks the deep part of the field. Very, very ah detailed and very deep passer. um I do think that he prefers to throw stuff on time, kind of use his rocket arm to get stuff in um before the receiver
00:15:10
Speaker
Sorry, but before the DB can make a play on the receiver, um probably more of an on-time guy like someone will talk about in the upcoming names, where I think that he could throw it a little bit earlier um if he really wanted to, but he kind of prefers to throw it on time and not compromise ah his accuracy from a hand-eye coordination standpoint. but Certainly a strong anticipator on out breaking routes at times um doesn't really anticipate super great in the middle of the field, but um Yeah, I think his composite ah across the levels of the field is is pretty solid Alright, so who's your fourth honorable mention and then I'll finish off with mine yeah, and my fourth and final a final honorable mention I think is a bit of an interesting one because I I don't know what to expect out of him and that's why he's here rather than higher. I think if we are to do this a list at any point in the season, maybe even mid-season, he's going to be higher on this list and that's Caleb Williams. And I think a big reason he is only an honorable mention for me right now
00:16:17
Speaker
is purely the fact that we have not seen a single snap of him playing NFL football yet, so I can't really say what I'm going to expect out of him. You could see with the situation of Bryce Young maybe giving a hint to some future honorable mentions, but he's someone who probably would have been an honorable mention going into last season for me. Obviously the season showed to me at least he's not an honorable mention So Caleb Williams could go either ways and the reason I feel like he's gonna be in this sort of Such a great Anticipator is his college film. He was one of those guys who's who was aggressive almost to a fault as a playmaker In college football. He was one of those guys who was always trying to get get the ball out early always trying to
00:17:03
Speaker
may get those extra few routes going for those routes that aren't necessarily open but he can throw them open because he has such a great arm and such a such great vision as a playmaker and I feel like the traits surrounding a great anticipator you know someone who has great patience and vision, someone who has the arm talent to fit in a lot of these balls and in general someone who can see these passes. Cale Williams has all of those traits to make him an even better anticipator and I think for that reason he's going to be using it at a high volume and we're going to see him looking like one of the better quarterbacks in the league as an anticipator but for now we haven't seen it yet so he's just an honorable mention.
00:17:44
Speaker
Yeah, Caleb's in my honorable
Unique Styles: Mahomes and Allen
00:17:46
Speaker
mentions too. You look at USC, he's anticipating on like these intermediate out breaking routes um very frequently, specifically the out route itself. um He anticipated that really well. um The USC offense just kind of puts a stranglehold on the types of anticipation he can um use just the amount of screens to running back to receivers. It's just egregious in the Kliff Kingsbury ah offense. um Hopefully in Chicago, he's gonna have an opportunity to attack the middle of the field a little bit more Which I saw plenty of potential for him to do and there's a lot of potential for his anticipation in specific in that regard as well um So yeah, very excited to see what Caleb can do from an anticipation standpoint um And in general just a playmaking standpoint as well. Alright, so you alluded to it My last honorable mention is Bryce young um I think that
00:18:37
Speaker
He showed a level of anticipation earlier on in the year um without much success from ah generating positive plays standpoint which would have landed him on this list actually just based on the frequency of passes that he threw before the receivers got out of the break. The problem is the receivers weren't separating out of the break so sometimes he would get punished like the example I brought up in the intro where that ends up being a turnover-worthy play because the pass is like a foot inside and Adam Thielen has zero feet of separation but the trades are still there for Bryce Young where he's able to see things before they get open. He has excellent vision and his ability to kind of sense leverage and things like that um are quite strong still. um Now he lost confidence in the offense, he lost confidence in his receivers being able to separate
00:19:29
Speaker
But my belief is that with a really strong separator in Deontay Johnson, um another player in Xavier Laguette who could become a guy I see weaponized over the middle of the field with his power and size, um i could I could see an avenue where Bryce Young becomes a good anticipator. particularly on the dig route, um, stuff over the middle of the field in general. Um, I think that Deontay Johnson being able to separate will inspire more confidence in him. Um, and I just think that there's potential here for him to even make this list with a strong season. and Um, but yeah, of course, um, like Polly was saying, if you want to be a little more critical of what he's put on film so far, that's totally fine for for me as well.
00:20:13
Speaker
Yeah, and before I get into my next tier, just to piggyback off of that, that's pretty much why I don't have Bryce Young here. As I said, last year at the same exact time, going into the offseason, before he had played a snap of football, he definitely would have been on my list. But from what I saw on film, he seemed to kind of get away from that. And I think one place where me and PD may disagree, or where maybe I'm foreshadowing to what I expect out of Bryce Young in the future is, part of his lack of anticipation comes from the lack of talent around him but I do think something that I was worried about from the jump is his size unfortunately kind of deteriorates his overall game and it's giving him less windows to use his anticipation less opportunities forcing him to be more of a straight-up passer in the limited windows he does have and I think that could be a long-term problem but we shall see going into next season
00:21:10
Speaker
um And moving on into the next kind of bucket or I guess category I guess ah to describe it as it would be the very good category. These are quarterbacks who aren't quite at an elite or all-time level of anticipation, but still one of the better anticipators in the league. I'd say this category has a lot of elite quarterbacks who this isn't necessarily their best part of their game but you still expect them to be very very good anticipators and they use it at a high level at a good volume and the first guy who I'll talk about who is one of those people exactly who you wouldn't really expect to name right away
00:21:51
Speaker
uh in terms of anticipation and that's Patrick Mahomes. Now for me Patrick Mahomes is very interesting because I feel like his anticipation works in a different way to most. Typically when you talk about anticipation it's getting rid of the ball to a certain route early whether you're Throwing to an out route before the break or an in route before the break getting the ball out early getting into a spot I feel like with Mahomes sometimes it isn't necessarily even the route he's throwing early to but he just finds space in the defense and he just Gets the ball to that space and he's in such great synergy with some of his receivers I feel like best being Travis Kelce
00:22:34
Speaker
and even more recently a guy like Rishi Rice or even before tight we kill they have such great synergy in finding that space in the defense the space in the zones because the Chiefs are too good to guard one on one and you're forced to play a zone on them and Mahomes is just consistently able to find those open spaces anticipating the ball even when a receiver isn't necessarily there or the space isn't open yet and I feel like that's why he's so special and that's why he makes this list may be a little bit higher than people i expect because he's not necessarily the guy you think when you think anticipation in the NFL.
00:23:09
Speaker
Yeah, so this is a type of thing where if I was factoring in avoiding negative plays, he would even be higher. um But for me, Mahomes landed up at number seven. He was really, really strong this year at making sure his anticipation didn't lead to interceptions. He only kind of anticipates when he knows that there's a leverage advantage or ah some sort of out breaking route towards the sideline where the DB can't really make a play on the ball. um Some of that will detract from him because part of this is going to be a volume. It's not just purely an efficiency standpoint, right? um In terms of the the anticipation. so
00:23:47
Speaker
his ability to anticipate kind of comes down to um he understands very much where he has a really high probability of getting away with it um and he takes advantage of it when he does very consistently. um That goes a long way for me because when he sees an advantage he consistently takes it. and but it does have to be a little bit of a certain advantage in terms of his anticipation he's not really like uh what's the right word like creative in the way that he yeah yeah he's not like a risk taker slash creative in the way that he sees those types of advantages um he reads leverage extremely well
00:24:24
Speaker
But he doesn't want to put the ball in anywhere ah in terms of harm's way, um which is kind of like a little bit of a weird thing when you think of what Patrick Holmes was earlier on in his career. But he's developed so much in terms of a decision maker where now he just. doesn't want to take the risk and the game he just kind of lets the game come to him and plays a much more counter heavy style which I appreciate more for sure. um So he ended up at seven on my list um and I think I guess we're working down for this category so who ended up number eight for you.
00:24:56
Speaker
Yeah, so Mahomes was actually also 7 for me, so surprisingly he actually falls around the same level for us. And for some who the guy who falls at 8 for me, very close to Mahomes, and I feel like very similar in what you just said about Mahomes, and that's Josh Allen. And I feel like Josh Allen is also a player who We don't see a high volume of anticipation in my opinion compared to a lot of these other quarterbacks. He's someone that has so much arm talent and arm velocity that you can play a little bit straight up and force balls into tight windows once a guy does get open.
00:25:33
Speaker
because he's just that athletically gifted but Alan is one of those people that when he does see the advantage he's an absolute risk taker and he because of how how easily he's able to fit balls into tight spaces he's one of those guys that can take those risks, anticipate and make that crazy play that absolutely flips a game on its head and completely changes everything. Those deep passes you see that are deep posts to a guy like Diggs or a deep goes on the sideline that he throws to guys like Gabe Davis, a lot of those are delivered way early and he's trusting his guys to get open downfield.
00:26:16
Speaker
and unfortunately for Alan he hasn't had a lot of receivers who have been able to consistently win historically he's had Alan last year even so not so much I mean historically he's had digs last year even not so much that so it's hard for him to be able to use that anticipation at a whole high volume I feel like but he is one of those guys that when you give him the opportunity when you give him that little bit of an advantage for him to take a take a responsibility with he goes for it and he gets that yeah so he landed one spot higher than mahomes for me basically because of the things that you're saying but as i said in the intro i'm going to be viewing those um in a higher regard the risk taking the ability to generate positive plays with your anticipation and the thing that inspires more confidence for me for alan is that
00:27:10
Speaker
through any situation, the one thing that stays with Alan is his desire to go win the game on every play. um And that matters so much for something like anticipation, which is so much of a confidence thing um more than anything else. And so I don't think that any changes in the supporting cast will disrupt Alan's rhythm ah significantly. That's why he's one of the best floor raisers if you would so if you would in in the sport overall. So um his ability to anticipate on deep outbreaking routes, the out route, the corner route,
00:27:42
Speaker
um And even stuff over the middle of the field, he will be aggressive in throwing stuff, not necessarily before their their break, but before he sees space. It's kind of like a second window type of anticipation rather than throwing a dig before they come out of their break, like some of the guys that will be on top at the top of our list. um So yeah, big fell fan of Alan, obviously. um And his his anticipation is one of the the stronger parts of his game, I'd say. Yeah, I like that you mentioned that he gets to a lot of outroutes, corner routes, and those sort of outraking routes because he's one of those guys who has that arm talent advantage on almost anyone in the league. and
00:28:21
Speaker
when he's able to anticipate those outroutes with his arm talent. It's almost impossible as a defender to even stop that. The reason I had to give Mahomes the slight edge is because ah on on my side I don't look at aggressiveness necessarily as the biggest factor to anticipation and someone who would like Mahomes, who tends to use it more. And even though he's not using it more aggressively, I feel like he's anticipating more effectively and more often than Allen. which is why I gave them the edge, but as I said before, they're both very close, so very similar ranking. And moving on to the guy at 9, also in the very good list, I think a bit of a step below from Mahomes and Allen, but in my opinion, someone who is a very good example of an anticipator because he's not athletically gifted
00:29:12
Speaker
and a Hall of Fame level talent like a Patrick Mahomes or a Josh
Goff and Herbert: Improving Anticipation
00:29:16
Speaker
Allen. And he's had to craft his way in the league using anticipating and being someone who gets rid of the ball very early so that he can make up for his lack of arm talent, etc. And that is Jared Goff. And over the last two years, I think we've seen him kind of skyrocket on this list. And he was someone who will always kind of had it when he was a Ram. But when he was as a Lion, I feel like it's been unlocked. The middle of the field, I feel like, has been an absolute disaster zone for defenses facing this Lions offense.
00:29:50
Speaker
because Jared Goff is able to just slice and dive and just go straight through these defenses. The Lions just run so many concepts through the middle of the field, whether it's a cross or slant, post, etc. And Goff has just done a great job of reading the levels of the defense, seeing where all the zones are going to kind of lie to see exactly where he can slice through and find an opening to get it to his receiver. he does a great job of finding the right windows and timing it so that the ball isn't tipped on the way or for whatever reason doesn't reach his receiver on the money. He's just one of those guys who's so fundamentally sound with the anticipation that even though he may be taking risks here and there, to me it doesn't even feel like a risk a lot of the time when Jared Goff is anticipating because he's so
00:30:41
Speaker
safe with the ball and so ah great at avoiding turnovers even though that's not like a huge factor in this necessarily it's obviously a great positive to have as a quarterback so Jared Goff makes this very good tier for me. yeah Jared Goff, a couple spots below, he was one of the first names off for me. um One of the things that I see with Goff is that he's more of an on-time type of guy, um like a guy we'll discuss in a bit, where he likes to throw routes as they're breaking rather than before they're breaking out. He's gotten better since he was in l LA, where I would have called this like not a strength of his, um where he was just a machine of throwing it on time and just barely ever got it out early. but
00:31:22
Speaker
I've seen him take a few chances in terms of throwing it early, um not necessarily being certain of where his receiver is going to go in terms of miscommunication or um specific route depths, but he he's done a better job and I do want to give him some credit for that, but I would still describe him as an archetypically on-time passer rather than an early passer, if that makes sense. Yeah, I think that's fair to say. I think he still is slightly early because he has to be by default as someone who doesn't necessarily have the strongest arm, the guy not necessarily the fastest release. I think naturally he has to be a little bit early to stay on par and get the ball to the right place. But I can see where you're saying where he's not necessarily being overly aggressive with it. And that's kind of what I was kind of talking about.
00:32:12
Speaker
I guess that's something I tend to appreciate seeing with Mahomes being higher on the list and whatnot, but I guess that's where we defer there. And moving on to I think another guy will defer a little bit on who I think still makes your list, and that's number 10, Justin Herbert. And obviously being a huge Justin Herbert guy, I think I'm a little bit higher with him on this list than a lot of people will be and I think with a couple people on this list we'll talk about situations and I think very similar to Josh Allen's situation Justin Herbert's at a point where
00:32:49
Speaker
he is even though he is a great anticipator he's not able to use it at the same volume as some of these other guys because his receiver chord just simply is not good enough to make separation and very similar to Allen or very similar to Josh Allen Herbert did have his Keenan Allen like with Josh Allen having his Stefan Diggs but when you look at the whole receiving chord they very much had to move from a Justin Herbert relying often to a very conservative offense where Justin Herbert isn't asked to take as many risks and is Forced to kind of throw underneath a lot of the time and not really use that anticipation Which I know he's able to do which we saw him do in his best seasons a few years ago And I think that's something that's very much still on the table for him I think guys like lad mcconkey coming into this next season are gonna lock unlock that for him and people who can get space at will over the middle of the field even ah outside the numbers in the slot wherever really on the field so that Herbert can get trust someone and get rid of the ball early and even with someone like Keenan Allen I feel like at his
00:34:01
Speaker
bigger age he was relying more on his hands and being a possession receiver and getting slight separation just enough to catch the ball rather than getting significant separation to where Herbert could rely on him and throw it early. I think Herbert's a guy who was forced into being more of an on-time passer but in situations where we do see him be able to use his anticipation much like Allen a lot of those kill shots that can flip a game on its head Herbert definitely is able to anticipate and take advantage of those situations. Now, because he's less aggressive and does it at a much, much lesser margin than Allen, I have him below, kind of similar to where Goff is, someone who isn't as big of a big playmaker as a Mahomes than Allen, but I still believe that Justin Herbert deserves to be in this range.
00:34:54
Speaker
Yeah, so similar to goth, it's funny that we're comparing Justin Herbert to goth with very different physical talents, but yeah Justin Herbert kind of very similar to goth in that he prefers to be on time with his stuff rather than early. um I think he's improved a little bit since something like his rookie year or maybe his second year in terms of taking risks down the field, but I still would like to see him take another jump before I talk about him towards the top of this list. Being on time is a very good starting point, at least avoiding late passes, but um to really take that step as
00:35:27
Speaker
someone who throws stuff early, I would prefer that he tries to take a little bit more chances down the field and throw stuff early. So with that, I think that leaves one more name for you and then we'll count down in year six to one. So who's the last thing to do? Yes, and rounding off my very good list and unfortunately I didn't limit it to 10 as we have tried to do for these top 10 lists so we can call this guy 11th or tied 10th whatever you want to call it and i think he's someone who has jumped into my list as of recent like due to recent performances and that is Jordan Love and he is another one of those guys just like your Mahomes your Allens your Justin Herberts who are physical specimens so when you watch them play football you wouldn't necessarily think of anticipation first
00:36:21
Speaker
when watching them play. But the version of Jordan Love that I saw towards the end of the year, and I think maybe that version of Jordan Love has ah made his image in my head look better than he even is. And we'll see during the season what he ends up looking like. But that version of Jordan Love looked like an incredible anticipator, looking at games especially like that Cowboys game towards the end of the year. Coming off the play action, you would see plenty of situations where he didn't have anything going on, he moved around in the pocket a little bit.
00:36:57
Speaker
and was able to find guys before they got open because of space behind the defense. He would find out routes and get rid of the ball before before their breaks, hit it on the money. And I feel like he had such good synergy with a lot of his receivers as well that he was able to trust them at a high rate, and which is why he's so early regularly. And I think even though it wasn't as big of a factor, a little bit of the negative of or lack of negative avoidance with him and over aggressiveness you could say at times hurts him and puts him a little bit lower in this category and I think volume also because he's also a guy like Josh Allen who can play a lot more straight up because he has the arm talent to be able to
00:37:42
Speaker
ah afford to pass late and pass off balance and make just those ridiculous plays that you don't see out a lot of guys but he's still someone who relies on anticipation enough to be on the very good category for me. yeah So he was number 10 for me as well. I kind of wanted to discount what was going on at the beginning of the season. um This is one of those where it was like the opposite of Bryce Young where he was kind of anticipating poorly at the beginning because he didn't have trust in the offense because of how many injuries they had along the receiving corps. Their offensive line was still working out some of the kinks but
00:38:21
Speaker
as the season progressed on and on he became more trusting in the offense started pushing the ball down the field more and with that came anticipation there's a beautiful throw um against the Cowboys for a touchdown off his back foot where he anticipates that very well puts drops that in the bucket for Dontavian Wicks for the touchdown um just down the stretch he's able to anticipate these out breaking routes stuff over the middle of the field as well he's stronger the middle feet he's just ah Very aggressive passer at all three levels and his success in terms of anticipation is a driving reason for that. So um Yeah, I'm very excited to see what he can do this year aggressive down-the-field thrower who has the arm talent in terms of flexibility in terms of power to really drive it and Now he's anticipating. Well, so very very scary for the rest of the lake for your own love very much. So I
00:39:14
Speaker
All right, so that wraps up our very good tier. Well, there's one guy in my very good tier that we haven't talked about yet, but he's in the next year for potty. So with that being said, let's start off with the ah elite anticipators for potty. Who is your worst guy in in the elite tier?
Prescott and Purdy: Mastering the Middle
00:39:33
Speaker
yes and this must be very interesting for people because we've mentioned a lot of very very big names such as some of the best quarterbacks in the league but as we said this is a anticipation specific list so it is purely this trait we're talking about and going into the elite category uh... my sixth and the last person in the elite category is Dak Prescott
00:40:00
Speaker
And Dak Prescott coming off an elite year last year. looking like one of the best quarterbacks uh... in the league last year uh... has always been an elite anticipator that's and we're starting to get into those quarterbacks who when you think of them you think of anticipation and Dak absolutely is one of those guys he's another one of those guys like the Jared Goff who primarily operates with a lot of his anticipation over the middle of the field the Cowboys like to run a lot of
00:40:31
Speaker
kind of in recent years run a lot more spread concepts have guys like cd lamb brandon cooks even amari cooper and he is around out in space going across the middle of the field uh getting separation as much as possible causing as much confusion and commotion and it allows dak Prescott to view the field see where the defense is kind of shifting towards and he does a great job of just anticipating and getting it to his receiver in the open space. I think he's almost even like Mahomes in that regard where he's does an amazing, amazing job of just finding space in the defense, finding gaps. But he, in addition to that, is also great at traditional anticipation in terms of getting your outroutes out early, getting your slants out on time and all of those sort of things. And that's why Dak Prescott is here on my list.
00:41:26
Speaker
Yeah, so Dak was a little bit lower for me. He ended up at nine. Would have probably been in the very good type of year. He just kind of plays in the more on-time style that I've described for Goff and Herbert for me. um He doesn't anticipate more than them, um but it's just like he kind of prefers to see things a little bit later than some of the guys that are going to be in the the the top of my list. I think he's a little bit more reliant on accuracy and his timing rather than anticipation and seeing things before they break open. And some of that comes down to the construction of the offense where CD-Lam is just like, CD-Lam is not running like like the types of routes that you would anticipate very easily. It's more like curls and like simple stuff like that. A lot of the time doesn't really run like
00:42:13
Speaker
the digs at the frequency of like let's just throw out a name that we haven't discussed yet like a like a Brandon Ayuk for the 49ers offense so it's it's kind of a little bit trickier to show high level anticipation in terms of before the route break in the the type of stuff that Dak throws but um he does have strong suspicion in his bag I wonder if to change in offense for the the Cowboys will bring out more fruit in terms of throwing over the middle um and anticipating in that regard. But yeah, strong anticipator. I just kind of view him as a little bit more of the on time type.
00:42:49
Speaker
Yeah, and I think this kind of shows the theme of how we've picked quarterbacks for a while because Dak also very much like a Mahomes or a Goff, even though they're not necessarily very aggressive with their anticipating. And even if they're a little bit more towards the on time side, I feel like they're just so effective with it and are using it at such a high rate to where I have to put him in this category of anticipation because it's just such a huge part of his game. It's what makes that press cut so effective, and I feel like I have to give him his flowers for it. But I think he's the last guy, tier-wise, we disagree with. And these five top five, I think, seem to be somewhat non-negotiable for us. And starting off with five, I like that you mentioned Brandon Ayuk, because it's actually his quarterback in Brock Birdie.
00:43:41
Speaker
and Brandon Ayuk's actually the perfect person to talk about in this anticipation conversation because before Brock Purdy came around Brandon Ayuk was almost a wasted talent on that 49ers team and the way he plays receiver just simply didn't mass mesh with a guy like Jimmy G who is very much on time or I'd argue even late because of how poor of a quarterback he is and or at least in recent times and with Brock Purdy he's just someone who relies on his anticipation so much because of what I was speaking with with guys like a Jared Goff or even a Dak Prescott he is not necessarily the biggest tallest guy he doesn't have the strongest arm and the way to make up for it is being very early
00:44:28
Speaker
and getting rid of the ball on time being smart and guessing almost where the defense is where he expects the defense to be and where he expects his receiver to be and just getting it out early and that's why someone like Ayuk who is an elite separator has been cooking ever since party is around because he knows that he just needs to get open and Brock pretty will be able to see it and get him the ball on time and on target every single time or even someone like Devo Samuel who was primarily used as a running back or even
00:45:01
Speaker
Just a screen guy before Brock Purdy came around is now able to do a whole load of different routes, a lot more short stuff that isn't reliant purely on just give Deebo the ball and make something happen but more so allow Deebo to get a little bit of space underneath, get him the ball there and let him work. It's unlocked all of these guys' games, and I think what some of the other guys will talk about in the future, I think a big part of anticipating is being able to unlock the best characteristics of your weapons. And a good theme that you'll see with these top quarterbacks is they do have big time weapons. And some of these guys, you even get arguments that they're reliant on their weapons. But at the end of the day, the reason these weapons are performing so well is because they have such great synergy with their quarterbacks.
00:45:51
Speaker
And I think Brock Purdy is just a perfect example of that. What we've seen with the 49ers offense, how they're relying they are on getting their weapons in open space and just making plays happen. The only way you can do that is when you have a quarterback who's able to make those passes and with confidence be aggressive. Because when you're not going deep, you do have to rely a lot more on tighter windows. You have to rely a little bit more on guessing and aggressiveness. And that's what Brock Purdy has been great at. Yeah, I love that you mentioned that kind of ability to synergize with your weapons because so much of anticipation is about a confidence thing um and the ability to synergize with your weapons is such a driver of that confidence. For Brock Purdy in specific, we all know 49ers offense is an absolute direction machine. Brock Purdy at 0.34 EPA per play last year.
00:46:46
Speaker
So much of that is driven by anticipation. We had him in our Pro Bowl bucket, I think both of us agreed um towards the middle point of the season. And you have to understand that so much of his game is driven by anticipation. He also brings certain other things like his movement ability, his ability to be accurate with the football um and avoid sacks at a decent rate. But his anticipation is such a big part of his game. He anticipates over the middle of the field extremely well. He anticipates out breaking rounds really well I'm just a very very strong anticipator. The one thing that's holding me back from even putting him higher. I know I saw a list
00:47:21
Speaker
where Kurt Warner ah put Brock Purdy at two. The one thing that's holding me back from doing something like that is that I think he goes through some stretches where he's just not seeing it too well. And that's not something that I'd say for the guys towards the top of the list, they just consistently keep on ah coming like a metronome um in terms of their anticipation. So Purdy just cutting out those stretches of play where he's kind of leaving the pocket early and not really seeing it too well. um and adding to the count of passes that are like late or not delivered, that's the one thing that's holding me back. But when he does anticipate or when he is feeling it, his rhythm, it's it's just really, really a sight to see in terms of his anticipation. And I could honestly see an argument for him to be projected higher um now that I really think about it.
00:48:08
Speaker
Yeah, I would absolutely agree. I think he is one of the best anticipators in the league. And to be honest, I don't think him being where he is at spot five is because he shouldn't be higher. I just think the guys in the top four here are just such elite anticipators that it even makes a guy like Brock Purdy. uh... get a little bit lower and i think what separates brock perdy from this next list of guys not to spoil is the deep playability i think he's the only guy in this top five that doesn't produce the same amount of game-changing plays that these next four guys will and when we talk about game-changing plays number four he is one no he's not a guy who is
00:48:55
Speaker
ah I guess he he He's a guy to make a lot of those big plays and that is CJ Stroud CJ Stroud coming into the league and already a top four anticipator and we saw it at an extremely high level last year and Much like Mahomes and I think most so mostly Allen He is one of those guys that loves to use anticipation to go downfield and make big plays happen But he is also unlike those guys someone that is aggressive even underneath and I feel like his aggressiveness almost goes a little bit unnoticed because he is seen a little bit as a guy who is very conservative of the ball and he's not really that
00:49:40
Speaker
and I think that contributes to why he's so high on this anticipation list and I think people just don't see how aggressive he is as times but he truly is a very very early thrower and especially on those deep balls I think one of the most revolutionary things the Texans did last year with their offense is this kind of open attacking style deep threat offense they had with guys like tank the hell and nico collins going consistently downfield with complex routes and getting getting at least one two big plays a game out of this texan's offense and a big reason
00:50:17
Speaker
is because of CJ Stroud he is very very cerebral when he passes and he's able to kind of recognize the downfield coverages between the safeties and corners I feel like very easily and with that he's able to read which route between a guy like Nico Collins or Tank Dell is going to expose the coverage downfield and even if it's not open right away he's able to get it out there Get it to those guys in space and even underneath the guys like someone like Dalton Schultz or even when he's checking it down I feel like he's amazing at taking exactly what the defense gives him and Getting it to his receivers in those exact spots where the defense is not gonna be and I think of all these guys He might be the best at doing it downfield in my opinion a bar.
Rising Stars: Stroud and Stafford
00:51:05
Speaker
Maybe one guy coming up So yeah CJ Stroud absolutely one of the best on this list for me
00:51:11
Speaker
Yeah, CJ Stroud, just an absolute monster in the anticipation game. CJ Stroud, 83.1 PFF grade, 0.124 EPA per play. The thing is that the one thing that's holding CJ Stroud back from being and like in in the elite category in terms of his statistical production is the fact in my opinion that his ah underneath accuracy kind of lags behind the rest of his game and you can see that in in something as basic as his completion percentage or adjusted completion percentage where in terms of completion percentage um if we look at the top 40 guys in terms of past attempts he's 26 which is below the average and he gets a reputation in terms of accuracy
00:51:52
Speaker
which is pretty strong um but the thing that the thing is that that type of reputation is coming because I actually think not even because of downfield accuracy where he is good but because of downfield that anticipation he just kind of sees things you know in a way that's really special for someone his age um his relentlessness aggressiveness attacking down the field dig routes, go or knockco dig outs outbreaking routes, corners, posts, you name it, just just whatever you want. He anticipates everything um extremely well from intermediate routes to deep routes. The only thing that's holding me back in terms of the anticipation from keeping him higher is that to start the year he was a little bit slow in terms of picking up his rhythm but as we got further and further
00:52:41
Speaker
into the season, um he got better at it. um And the reason I'm pick mentioning that with the rhythm is that um they're having a little bit of a change in terms of adding Stefan Diggs to this offense. um And then Tankdale is also coming back from injury. So there's going to be a little bit of an adjustment period, in my opinion, to those receivers. But if I didn't believe that that adjustment was coming, then I would probably have him higher. Just an incredibly impressive anticipator, especially for his age, one of the best I've ever seen for his age, to be quite honest. I like that you keep bringing up the age factor because I think because of that he's guaranteed and to me I put money on it that he's going to be higher on this list whether it's next season, the coming seasons as we see more of him and more volume I think he's just going to continue to grow on this list I think the fact that you mentioned last year he did have some hard times as all rookies do
00:53:36
Speaker
And with those tough games happening in and out the season, whether it was the early game against the Ravens or even the Jets game later on the year, I feel like those bad games just knocked his confidence down as a rookie. and you would see a couple of weeks almost afterwards his aggressiveness lack for a little bit and he would slowly build himself back up I think having more weapons next year and even though though there may be some flow issues early on working everyone in and figuring it out with so many new pieces I feel like now that he's more comfortable and confident in himself as NFL passer he's gonna be able to dig a little bit deeper in that anticipation bag
00:54:17
Speaker
And now that he has so many weapons to do it with, even a guy like Diggs, he was someone who was an elite a weapon for Alan for many years using anticipation. And even if he's not the same guy, if he's your wide receiver 2 or wide receiver 3, I still think that's trouble for defenses. And obviously we saw what ah Stroud could do with guys like Collins and Ted Dell last year. so definitely looking for a leapfrog next year. And speaking of guys, a guy who was using two receivers very well last year in their and in his anticipation, and this is someone who I think may have been even higher on this list a couple of years before and maybe with the age is a little bit lower now, but still showed last year that he very much deserves to be on this list, and that is Matthew Stafford.
00:55:09
Speaker
ah historically one of the better anticipators in our league for a very long time may go in history not as like one of the best anticipators of all time but one of the good ones in the league for a while definitely his longevity will show that he he deserves to be in a lot of these conversations and even now at this point we saw last year that he's still able to do it at such a high level His arm talent is just so incredible and when you have the aggressive gun-slinging mindset of Matthew Stafford, with that arm talent, it just breeds trouble for the defenses when he guys has guys like Puka Nakua.
00:55:49
Speaker
who are just finding space at will and just incredible route runners and is someone that Stafford can trust fully 100% that he's going to create at least a step of separation, which allows him to make any throws he throw he wants. And with Stafford, unlike a lot of these guys, it's not limited to just one part of the field or just one range. He anticipates everywhere, whether it's short, middle of the field, deep out routes, in routes, He throws anything and everything, and it's always going to be early. And when you have guys like Cooper Cupp, Pukanakua, who are elite separators, at least one healthy for both of those guys, mainly Cooper Cupp, obviously. And the Stafford has almost full, just full-fledged transparency to throw it to them whenever whenever they want to. And he's as a result, he's very high on this list.
00:56:44
Speaker
Yeah, so I like what you said there with the versatility. That's kind of part of his appeal. But I wanted to just kind of take a moment to step back with Stafford, because he ended up at two on my list. um Similar tier to the guy you have at two, I assume, and I have at three. but Stafford is just an unbelievable anticipator. 88.2 PFF grade overall, 0.123 EPA per play. And that's despite, I think both of us agree on this, that Stafford misses a lot of passes yeah in terms of the short area of the field especially. um Sometimes his arm can get a little bit out of control and he's just kind of trying to put too much gas on it. But man, his anticipating is insane. um I want to take it back to the week one game against Seattle.
00:57:28
Speaker
do He is just anticipating some ridiculously deep in-breaking routes, stuff outside the numbers, stuff to like seal the deal on the game. It's it's unbelievable what he was doing in that game from an anticipation standpoint. And then again, in Prime Time Against the Saints, just an incredible game in terms of throwing out breaking routes with anticipation. um He obviously has an incredible arm, one of the best in the league that I'm sure we'll get to in a future episode. He is just fearless in the pocket and fearless pushing the ball down the field. um Just an incredibly versatile anticipator who does it with extremely good volume. If the guy at number one wasn't
00:58:10
Speaker
a freak of nature in terms of anticipation, he would be a really good candidate for number one. But unfortunately, that's not the case. So yeah, I am just in awe of Matthew Stafford as an anticipator. He's he's awesome. Yeah, absolutely. And it hurts to say for me as a Niners fan, but he is very much elite. And I think the guy who you're hinting at is at three for you. For me, he's at two. And I can absolutely see why he's not here for you. But I think because of what I've seen this man do and the I guess the almost dominance that we saw out of him for a little bit, ah like a two season period.
00:58:51
Speaker
I think he has to be this high for me because this is his primary trait as a passer that induces that level of elite play and that is one of I think everyone's favorite quarterbacks and that is Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow I think ever since his final year in college at LSU and even coming into the league has always always been an elite anticipator. He's always been a guy who's just been heavily reliant on that and he yeah he isn't ah the type of guy who is a physically imposing quarterback but he is very very accurate and when you combine that level of accuracy with
00:59:30
Speaker
his elite level of aggressiveness anticipation. It breeds for these historic offenses that we saw the Bengals have for a couple of years time with Joe Burrow putting up yards upon yards when he was healthy and playing at his peak. And I think it's just how he's able to deal with the anticipation with so many different types of receivers Yes he has a guy like Jamar Chase who's one of the best receivers in the league and he can kind of throw whatever to him whether it's deep underneath anticipate and get it to him but he has so many different receivers and a guy like T Higgins who is more of a straight up receiver he wants the ball in kind of contested catch points
01:00:11
Speaker
and isn't getting much separation. Joe Burrow is able to anticipate, deal with that and get it to him. He still throws it early and is able to put it at a point where T. Higgins is able to attack and go up and get the football before the DB's head is even turned purely because of how early Burrow gets rid of the ball. Or he has a little shifty crafty receiver and Tyler Boyd who he knows is able to get open on like a slight route or a little bit of a dig route, kind of shimmying and getting away from his corner and he's able to ah work with the guy who gets a little bit more separation by throwing it early and on time in the right window and getting him in the open field.
01:00:52
Speaker
And we've seen what Jamar Chase can do for multiple seasons in so many different aspects of the field. So much like Stafford, Burrow is just such a versatile anticipator. And even though he may not be as aggressive as Stafford, much like some of the other guys we've maybe disagreed with yeah in this scale, he is so, so effective with it. And I feel like he has the perfect balance of ah aggressiveness and negative avoidance with the anticipation that makes it a recipe for being number two. And like you mentioned with the guy who's at number one, if he didn't exist, I think Joe Burrow is the perfect archetype and perfect type of quarterback to be number one. I think we've seen guys who are at Joe Burrow's level of anticipation be number one for years, uh, for this trait. But, uh, obviously there is another guy who you guys have probably figured out at this point.
01:01:50
Speaker
But still, Joe Burrow ends up being really, really high for me, and I think, at least, has an argument for one, too. Yeah, Joe Burrow is awesome, man. I love Joe Burrow. Incredible anticipator on Outbreaking Routes. He's so successful on those Outbreaking Routes, despite having not top-tier arm talent, but I would say just just solid arm talent, because he consistently gets them out early every single time. It's just incredible what he's able to do on those Outbreaking Routes, just an absolute machine. um When he does throw stuff over the middle of the field, which is not as frequently, um which is kind of why he ended up a little bit lower for me than Stafford, because Stafford is aggressive pushing it over the middle of the field.
01:02:32
Speaker
in a higher rate than Burrow is. That kind of added to Stafford's aggression and versatility component and positive impact for ah his anticipation which put him over Burrow close for me. um But man Burrow's consistency with the anticipation I would say is higher than Stafford just because yeah he doesn't have the margin for error that Stafford does with his arm talent. um Stafford's floor is higher on a given play in terms of anticipation because he can just whiz it in there but with Joe Burrow it just has to come out early every time and the frequency with which he does it is probably a little bit higher than Stafford but like I said the the deep down the field stuff the middle of the field stuff Stafford I have a slight advantage for him. um to Just to bring up some numbers
01:03:15
Speaker
for Joe Burrow. So for 2022 and 2023, he's 12th in EPA per play at .0118 and for 2023 in specific obviously with the down year. But if you look at 2021 to 2022 in the regular season for Joe Burrow, he comes in at fourth behind. Patrick Holmes, Josh Allen, and Jimmy Garoppolo. And understand for Joe Burrow that his game is primarily driven based on accuracy, anticipation, ah size, some element of sack avoidance he's in the positive in that regard, and some his capability. He doesn't have exceptional arm talent, it's just solid. um And he doesn't have
01:03:55
Speaker
some sort of rushing component to his game. The accuracy and anticipation are the bread and butter of his game, and he's able to produce results that are, I would say, solidly top five of the league. For me, maybe a little bit higher than that. um So yeah, fantastic player who's able to drive his game based on accuracy, anticipation, and kind of tread water in the other areas. um So yeah, awesome, awesome player, and I have a ton of respect for him. All right, so that leaves our consensus number one. And for me, this guy separated himself from the pack pretty solidly because, well, he anticipates basically every pass
Tagovailoa: Elite Anticipation
01:04:35
Speaker
that he throws. It just feels like every pass, every other pass somewhere in between those just comes out with an anticipation on every route that's possible to be anticipated. So excluding stuff like RPOs and and basic go balls,
01:04:49
Speaker
which they don't really run much of in Miami, um but Tua is architect number one and he just anticipates everything. um And it's specifically on stuff breaking over the middle. It is extremely rare for you to see him um throw stuff that's not early and just kind of put some context on it. Tua, seventh in PFF grade last year, he is very high ranking in terms of stuff from 2022 to 2023 in EPA per play comes in at 5th at 0.194 EPA per play and the thing you have to understand about that is that he doesn't have the treading water ability that Joe Burrow does um in other areas of his game. Now Tua is a strong sack avoider because of his anticipation. He's able to consistently get it off so fast because his release is really quick and he is really aggressive about getting the ball out fast despite whatever defensive coverages that there are
01:05:41
Speaker
um Sometimes that leads him into trouble because, as we'll talk about in maybe a future episode with negative avoidance, he kind of ends up on the higher side in throwing turnovers. But the volume with which he anticipates is ridiculous, and the areas of the field that he's attacking are so valuable in terms of the middle of the field. Consistently he hits guys in stride early with opportunities for explosive plays, and you just consistently consistently see someone like Tyreek Hill or Jalen Waddell turn those into big plays because of their speed. But it's also because Tua is giving ah them an opportunity to maximize that speed. um And his ability to add value in that regard is just incredible. I would say he's one of the best anticipators I've seen in the NFL in quite a long time. One of the best of the past 10 years, I would say certainly. Just an incredible, incredible player in that regard.
01:06:31
Speaker
and someone who doesn't really have too much to his game outside of that plus accuracy elements um and positive sack avoidance, which is a result of the anticipation. The other areas of his game are very much up to question, but I think he is still someone that we agreed upon were was in the Pro Bowl category for us in the mid-season in the past two years, and and that is like almost all because of accuracy and almost all because of anticipation and some elements of accuracy. absolutely and before I get to talking about Tua I was going to announce him as I did all the other quarterbacks and say you know what before I even get into it I'll let you go off and glaze but before I could even make the joke off you already got started with Tua so just to show you guys the excitement this guy has when talking about his
01:07:20
Speaker
boy two are right here in terms of anticipation but i do understand it this guy truly is the definition of an all-time great in this and i'm not a to a fan i think that's all very well documented on this podcast and it's largely because of what pd said with this pretty much kind of encompasses his entire game anticipation and some elements of accuracy which unfortunately i don't think is enough to make it work but the fact that he is a player that we both evaluate on a pro troll pro-ball level and really knocking on the door of that elite tier purely based off one trait just goes to so how damn effective he is at anticipating
01:08:05
Speaker
And I think because of his time at Bama where he faced so many injuries, including a hip injury that limited ah his mobility, shoulder injuries that I'm sure limited his overall arm strength and ah but power with velocity and on his throws. I think his health limited his body so much that Tua simply had to become a student of the game and learn defenses so well to place balls at the perfect spots and get rid of it way before any of those other negative traits of his can be a factor because if he's throwing the ball so early, it doesn't matter if he's too immobile to get away from a sack or if he's throwing the ball early, it doesn't matter if he has a little bit less zip on it.
01:08:48
Speaker
because you can get it there on time. That's why Tua is such an elite anticipator. And you see guys like Tyree Kill have historic monster receiving season, something that you haven't seen in NFL history history almost at all. And it's coming from a guy in Tua who's just throwing him the ball early, getting it getting the ball to a place where he thinks Tyree Kill will be at a good position to make something happen. And he's doing it at such a high level that Miami's offense for the last few years has been.
01:09:21
Speaker
one of the best in the league so major props to him. This is the only list Tua will ever be number one in but it absolutely is well deserved and I hope he doesn't fall ah fall off from it because there's a couple of guys who I think absolutely are knocking on his door. I don't think it's as big of a line slide as PD thinks. For me, Burrow is also in the all-time tier with Tua and I think those other characteristics can unfortunately hurt him and bring him down to maybe being at those other guys level even though the volume and level of anticipation that he uses does no one really in the league right now rivals that.
01:10:03
Speaker
Yeah, i I think there's potential here when we redo this list next year at some point for someone like CJ Stroud to bounce up, because he has a wider range of outcomes, I'd say. um Actually, let's make that a little bit of a congo. So in terms of the ranges of outcomes, I think that Tua is pretty solidly my number one. I could see him dropping a little bit. um Joe Burrow, I could see him... Actually, I don't i don't know if Joe Burrow... um has, but maybe maybe he does have some more potential left in him, um but I'm not sure he has quite the ceiling that someone like Shroud does. um In terms of anticipation for Stafford, um I think that he could drop a little bit just because of age. um I don't think he could get quite higher than second. Shroud, I just mentioned, he has potential, in the same vein, Brock Purdy has potential to jump up.
01:10:52
Speaker
because of his age. Like I mentioned when we were talking about him, his ability to cut out those stretches of being late um are kind of the main factors. um Out of the rest of the names, I don't see a ton of potential for growth. ah Jordan Love is one that I do see though. um His ability to stay in rhythm should probably be a little bit better than it was last year with how many receivers were injured and then I guess Caleb and Bryce Young as well because they have such significant youth um and the supporting cast around them are ah intriguing I would say. Yeah I think a lot of my ranges are somewhat similar but I do think
01:11:33
Speaker
Because of how much closer some of these guys are that there could be a little bit more variability I don't think to us set at one. I think burrow definitely depending on the season he has Could leap frock to easily for me, but I think to us pretty firm in that all-time category and isn't falling from two. I think Burrow could go as high as one or as low as four or five, very dependent on how much we see him use anticipation next year. If it's something more reminiscent of last year it than compared to the few years prior, then maybe we're seeing a Joe Burrow going away from it a bit. So it'll be interesting to see oh what happens with him.
01:12:15
Speaker
I think Stafford has a high rage because of age. I predicted last year that the health would end up catching up to him and last year he showed that that was not a factor. So for me, I think he's very firm in the elite tier if he manages to stay healthy. But if external factors such as age or his elbow problems or various arm problems he had. Hold him back. I could see him falling out of to the very good or even not even on this list ah guys like Stroud and Purdy I think both are not gonna go below their positions of four or five I think the fact that they're already there so early in their careers in their first and second years respectively is very impressive and I don't see them really falling off with the level of talent they both have on their rosters and I think both of these guys have the potential to jump into all time, especially Stroud. I think he's someone that can get to 1, 2, anywhere on this list. Purdy a little bit more of a ceiling because he's not as talented as Stroud. He can probably only get to 2, but I think he can be anywhere really in that top 5 outside of it. Dak I think is pretty firm in where he is. I don't see him changing much going up or down and I feel similarly about guys like
01:13:30
Speaker
Mahomes, Allen, Goff, Herbert, I think those are all guys that at this point in their careers we know exactly what they are in terms of anticipators and they've been in the league long enough to where they're not going to improve significantly and I'd be surprised if they were to get worse by a significant margin and very similar to what you said, love and caleb but ah but Jordan Love and bre and Caleb Williams can really go as high or as low as anywhere on this list because they're so young and have so many possibilities, especially Caleb because he easily could come in and be automatically elite like a CJ Stroud was after his rookie year right now. He is one of those prospects that could do those things.
01:14:17
Speaker
Alright, make sure to like, leave a rating, do what you need to do on whatever platform that you're listening on. Make sure to follow me at, follow me at PD34 underscore, and at, at Real Herbal Potty 2 for potty. That'll be all for me, that'll be all for potty. We'll see you guys in the next one. Peace. Peace.