Transcript
Speaker: Welcome to a new episode of the InSilico Terminal podcast. My guest today, actually i have two names on on Twitter. like what One is your display name and one is your ad so one is called Hype Trader and the other is Momentum Kevin.
Speaker: Which one do you prefer what would you like to be called? ah It doesn't really matter. i mean, honestly, probably just call me Kevin or Hype Trader. So you're like one of, ah you're a pretty prominent trader on Hyperliquid on Twitter. What's like the story of how you got started?
Speaker: How did you find Hyperliquid? What's the story of your account? So I found Hyperliquid a while back. I just never really got into it because, um so like I didn't farm it actually when I first found out about it because I didn't really understand much. I guess I was just too lazy to look too deep into it and I was already I guess I was part of the cohort that was like shilling sexes for like, uh, you know, higher percentage of the fees, right. Then what hyper liquid is offering. So I never really cared for the liquid back then, which was like a massive fumble in a way.
Speaker: Cause if I was just trading there instead, then I would have, you know, obviously I would have made like way more. Right. ah Yeah, like I got way more interested in what was going on there when they TG eat the day that that they TG because I had a friend who farmed the decks and he had he got a huge airdrop basically. And I was like, but what's going on?
Speaker: And then I started looking into it and i basically aped like the first day that it TGE'd. um Because I like the token. And yeah, I could have sized up way harder back then, but I was still kind of like unsure, you know, what what's going on. I was convicted back then.
Speaker: um I didn't even know it was also an l one I thought it was just like the buybacks and then hype ah was getting bought off the exchange. So I kind of saw it as like Binance 2.0 decentralized ah where you could have basically ownership in the next Binance potentially.
Speaker: Yeah. So like that's kind of the way I saw it. I aped. I was holding for a really long time. Like it caught most of the initial move up. um held a little bit too long on that initial move because it pulled back obviously but then ah yeah lost a lot of profit and then revenge traded it on like the second wave back really hard and yeah that's like kind of where most of the perps profit initially came from at least publicly on hyper liquid
Speaker: That's kind of like what happened with Hype, I guess. What gave you the conviction to like buy buy the token on TGE even after like not using the product before? I remember because I got my drop and i sold most of it like quite early.
Speaker: um and I guess you you had like some conviction from your friend and thinking like it could be the next Binance or whatever, but we all know the usual drop fractal where it's kind of like like... I kept some, but it it was kind of difficult to fight this mindset of like, hey, I should like sell some of this free money. First of all, they didn't have VCs, right? So that basically meant that like the VCs and whoever wanted to get in had to buy it off the open market. So given that factor, I automatically assumed like the immediate like first week or so would just be bullish.
Speaker: Um, because of that. And additionally, um, yeah, I mean, i I started looking a lot more into it. Like, I mean, like really deep into it, like that first day, like I was literally watching like interviews of Jeff already i and inspected like economics.
Speaker: ah structure how they structured everything everything looked extremely mathematically sound to me and then I really liked uh what i had thought about Jeff and yeah to me it just seemed like a guy was actually going for the long run so I didn't want to like dump it too soon because it seemed like more of a long-term kind of thing
Speaker: and yeah i just I did make a lot of money in the beginning pretty early on um
Speaker: But the the more that I think about it, I should have just went like max size right in the beginning because later on, you know, those regrets of not having done it, you know, when you were so convicted about a play yeah that you end up actually at some point later on when the price is way higher making that mistake anyways, you know? So like might as well like...
Speaker: just shove now to save you the, um i guess, the pain of like regret of not doing it earlier, so to speak. I mean, proper sizing is kind of like one of the biggest problems in trading, at least from what I feel like personally, because you can have like the right analysis and the right ideas and stuff, but to like size it properly relative to your own risk tolerance and like conviction is...
Speaker: like I feel like pulling that off perfectly is very, very rare and only very few people pull that off like once in their life or something. Where you like don't regret that you put too much or too little.
Speaker: ah Yeah, there's always gonna be those kind of regrets. But um yeah. What did you do before in crypto? how long How long have you been in crypto? Been in crypto since late 2013. I bought the top basically.
Speaker: top in 2013?
Speaker: yeah the top in 2013. that was when it went to one k bitcoin right yeah it was like 1100 1200 was like the peak right back then um i was still giga bullish but yeah like it's totally topped right after it and went down to 150 and i kind of gave up on it and started trading stocks looking at stocks basically just continuing my learnings in the market but via stocks And back then it was like penny stocks were like the meme coins now. So people were trading like the very low flow shit coins, but they were just like in stock form.
Speaker: Um, and there would just be like the daily runners or like the runners of the week. And then like you sometimes get like these multi-week, like one month insane runs.
Speaker: Uh, like, I don't know if you've heard of like DRYS, uh, for example no I don't think so okay well these are just like names of like penny stocks that went on like insane runs back from those periods ah um but like yeah yeah and then eventually I was sort of keeping an eye on crypto still during this time and um at some point I was watching So there used to be this website that we would use back in the day to all get the charts and it wasn't TradingView and i forgot it I forgot the name of it, but it would have like all the the exchanges that were the main ones with volume integrated.
Speaker: And like, you know, you'd have to like switch between the exchanges to see like where the volume's going. Yeah. And ah it just so happened like a shit ton of volume started going off on BTC China. Mm-hmm.
Speaker: And... It was one of those Chinese exchanges, but it was just like insane relative volume that didn't make sense. You almost thought it was fake. But then like the price of the chart was also going up and the chart actually looked insanely bullish. Right. It was like creating higher lows. Looked like it was about to break out at like 250. Yeah.
Speaker: I'm like bottom of like 150. And ah so I shoved back then. I was still in college, though. So I was like pretty broke. and I most made most of my money selling weed actually.
Speaker: Not that that really matters, but like that's how I generated like my initial capital. Interesting source of of funding, yeah. So it was like twenty k twenty k back then, but that was like 70 BTC, you know?
Speaker: Back then, right? And then, so i was like kind of stupid. I was kind of also like paper handed a little bit. And like, I didn't really have that much conviction either. You know, I had some friends that I told to invest and like, they would like text me panicking about the volatility and it would like also influence my trading decisions too back then.
Speaker: And, um, yeah, ended up selling at like 700, I think. And, uh, watched it go to 5k. And then I was like, all I'm going back all in on crypto, like just full time.
Speaker: Um, and and yeah, just started basically started, got back into it, was trading all all coins on like Bittrex back then. And like, um,
Speaker: you know, losing a little bit of money here and there. I think I was like down like maybe like 50 K or something trading. And then, uh, But I had invested in the so back then ICOs were the way to make money.
Speaker: And I didn't really participate in a lot of that. I missed a lot of the good ICOs like ICX and like these random scams that went up like 200x from your initial investment. Like they were like the gems because there were like only so many of them.
Speaker: And all you had to do is pull like a thousand in each and you would have been rich, you know? kind of thing. Yeah. But like, it was just like you had to been paying attention and like actively, I guess, moving your money around and doing these things. And I wasn't acclimated to that.
Speaker: So I missed a lot of ICOs and a lot of them weren't allowed for the US and this and that and all these like weird things. But, um, I somehow managed to get in the Tron ICO with like eight grand and, ah it wasn't doing anything. I kind of just knew was a good bet because of like the way it was structured and like how it was gated on like a Chinese website and like, um, just like the way it set up, it felt like it was going to get pumped at some point. So I just put grand into it. Um, didn't do anything for like,
Speaker: maybe like two months three months um and I kind of forgot about it my friend was like oh do yo congrats on Tron and that's like when I finally checked it and it was up 10x really yeah and I was like holy fuck but this was like the start of the altcoin run of like 2017 right so like everything was pop yeah and uh Eventually, I, yeah, I mean, like, ah I was like, okay, i'm just going to wait until this goes to, like, XYZ amount, right?
Speaker: But then it ah went up 2X the next day from that. So it was, like, 8K and 160, and then I cashed out. And I basically took out my ah my Ether wallet because it was stored on my Ether wallet, paper wallet back then.
Speaker: And I just deposited it into Binance and just like full full stacked it and then into BTC. Right. Because back then it was like all about trading BTC pairs.
Speaker: Yeah. ah So. you were just trying to stack more BTC. They're, they're calling it stack sats later on, you know, that's like a bit of a lost art nowadays, but yeah, remember little a lost art, but that's what the whole goal was, right? You didn't want to, you didn't ever want to denominate in fiat. It was like, I'm just looking to increase my Bitcoin count.
Speaker: And, uh, that's what I was doing on there. So, um, Yeah, i mean, I was just trading. So after I had full stack trials trading all and it was super easy, actually, because ah There's only like 20 altcoins.
Speaker: So you only had to monitor like 20 charts basically. And, uh, basically had entire oversight of like where everyone was trading back then. Yeah. So it was really easy to like find like a technical breakout, you know, on the chart and the volume and like everything. And there was like, it was not as algo infested. So like everything that the, the, the numbers were telling you were just like straight up truth, you know? Mm-hmm.
Speaker: So it was like you never had to think about like fake outs and all this other bullshit of that the algorithms do to you now. um It was just straight up like printing off of like retail money.
Speaker: ah So yeah, i did that for like three months. um And yeah, ran up a huge stack. I think the i basically...
Speaker: Somehow got back to having ah a little bit more than 70 BTC again at that peak. um But I was all in like all coins, I think, on the day of the peak.
Speaker: So i actually instantly went from like over seven figs to under seven figs in like a day or two. And I was not used to these swings mentally. Like it was actually like the first half.
Speaker: I had dealt with, uh, like this big of swings. I had lost like 20 K back then here and there, you know, trading stocks. But I never like, basically I was like, so attached to this thought of like, holy shit, I'm a millionaire, you know, like, uh, I want to maintain that yeah name or whatever you want to call it. Right. And, uh, mm-hmm.
Speaker: I feel like that train of thought or just like this ah type of attachment led to more losses ah following that day. But um so that was like the 2018 or like late peak.
Speaker: and an offer that
Speaker: uh yeah yeah and then after that that's kind of when leverage trading right when leverage trading came out actually so basically i had like a little discord group where we were all talking about markets and everyone in that group was like talking about bitmex and like how they're like levered up in this kind of this and this and that then um So I got on there and I think I ended up losing like another 50% of, uh, whatever I had left.
Speaker: Um, just trading around on BitMEX, like not really understanding leverage watching. Like i remember the first time I watched myself get liquidated on like a multiple six figure margin. Hmm.
Speaker: if Dude, it literally was like a physical pain when I saw it happening. Yeah, I've heard that before. i are Like, i actually don't even feel it nowadays. It won't even matter if I lost everything. I won't feel that physical sensation that I had the first time that it happened. But, like, yeah. um BIMx was really brutal back then. Like, I was making some money in the beginning, but then in the end, like, I didn't understand, like, how dangerous the...
Speaker: Like it was like, I didn't know I was potentially being hunted, you know, at the size that I was trading back. And I think I was for the leverage that I was on on BitMEX.
Speaker: And ah there's probably a lot of other people who are also like in the same cohort as me. That we're getting targeted. um But yeah.
Speaker: ah That's kind of what happened 2018. And then... Did you ever, when when you first approached crypto, were you already only interested in like the financial and the trading aspect or were you also sort of kind of in it for the tech a little bit since you've been there like that early? I feel like most people that started around that time were like mining or some shit like that.
Speaker: Oh yeah. So I actually wanted to get into mining in the beginning. But then I found out about cloud mining and then I was like, oh shit, like cloud mining seems way more convenient. You know, i don't want to deal with the hardware and whatnot.
Speaker: And, um, you know, when I was looking for places to do cloud mining, I kind of got scammed. So like, yeah, the one place that had like the slightly better rates was like a complete scam. And, uh, it turned me off from like wanting to do any of that kind of stuff.
Speaker: And then I was like, right, Yeah, honestly, looking back, right, I didn't have enough self-control or like discipline to be a long-term thinker and employ like, you know, a 10-year long holding strategy, right?
Speaker: And actually execute it properly just because of like, I guess who I who i am as a person. ah You know, some people, they do it a lot easier, but for me, it just never came natural, even if I really wanted to and I told myself I was gonna do it.
Speaker: you know what i mean uh i never executed it properly so but were you like bought into this uh thesis of decentralized money and then bitcoin is gonna like hyper bitcoinization or whatever or it's gonna be like yeah i was definitely bought contracts will change the world all that stuff yeah i definitely saw the potential especially in the decentralization aspect and just like i was also I'm a huge fan of the cause too, you know, not just like the tech, but like the cost more so and like the purpose of it and what it serves and ah how it can change a lot of.
Speaker: ah
Speaker: I mean, I don't know if it will anymore. I don't see that vision as strongly anymore where I thought it could the power dynamics of the financial system. Yeah. It seems now like more and more that um you know it's already been infiltrated to some extent. So um now it's just more of like... How do you feel about that in general? like I think it's pretty interesting to have someone that's been you need for like so long and the I've only been in crypto for like nine years, I guess now, but still I was also very op time high conviction into the tech and decentralization and stuff at the beginning. But now it kind of maybe it's just because the price is down, but it just feels a bit like it didn't really fulfill its its promises that well, apart from maybe Monero or whatever.
Speaker: No, I think it it got infiltrated already to some extent in some way ah where whoever's um doing the development work on Bitcoin Core, right like that's probably already centralized because I heard it was like only a team of six people and like all these other things. like Yeah, from that regards, like um I don't know if it's gonna ever serve its purpose but for now I just see still see it as a potential place to make money and that's so the only reason why.
Speaker: So how did your trading develop after getting liquidated a lot in 2018 on BitMEX? So after getting liquidated a lot in 2018, I kind of just took a break from trading as to not to make sure I don't lose everything sort of deal and just started focusing on um other things. Right. Like I was I started focusing on building products in the trading world instead and like tools, things of that nature to help me trade.
Speaker: And. um Yeah, I think that really helped. So I'm actually building something right now. ah It's sort of a tool for traders that revolve in the crypto Twitter community.
Speaker: okay Yeah, and it's just extracting everything that's ba being said basically in crypto Twitter and digesting it as potentially noise or a signal and then allowing users to execute on that extremely flawlessly.
Speaker: um But like, yeah. So like,
Speaker: I mean, I had a really good run in the 2020 bull run on NFTs, mostly CryptoPunks. But that bull run, I kind of gave back around like 50 to 60% of my total profits that cycle also.
Speaker: So it wasn't like, it's like each cycle i made a little bit of money, but I never really made it made it the way a lot of these guys that probably started from back then did I'd say have enough to all you I'm sorry you didn't have enough money to retire no I didn't have enough money to retire you didn't have 10 million or whatever the correct amount is Yeah, exactly.
Speaker: It's yeah. Whatever the amount is is, it's subjective for everyone. Right. But for me, it definitely wasn't enough. And um yeah, lost a shit ton holding CryptoPunks.
Speaker: ah But then Yeah, around like when BTC, after BTC bottomed around 25K or so, i started trading again um on Bybit. And then, yeah, made a decent amount longing BTC from like 30K and then sold from like 28 back then.
Speaker: um Yeah, like the market kind of took off back then, like in a pretty easy way. Yeah, it wasn't really um anything too stressful. Right. It was just like Seoul pretty much just went up only from that point. That was the 2023 2024 cycle and then hype. And then most recently, though, I'm not going to lie, had some pretty big losses on hype just being too levered up. And like they pretty much I'm not going to blame Arthur for this tweet or whatever.
Speaker: Because I feel like it's just part of the game and I feel like it was going to go down anyways. It's not as, it's probably not as fast as it did. But like, yeah, Arthur's tweet sort of rinsed me pretty hard in like a very short period.
Speaker: I was extremely levered up right then. And I don't think there was really any reason to other than a pure FOMO on hype. Yeah, that's pretty much it, man. But that was like most of my P&L that I had.
Speaker: racked up over like two years i basically lost it in the span of like a month and a half after the arthur hayes tweet i had also a lot of turbulence i guess in my personal life and other things that i guess were causing me to not be not be locked in i guess so to speak and then uh i levered up pretty hard not in good conditions now i'm just i'm just trying to trade day day to day now pretty much doing like intraday um scalps and like one to two day swings.
Speaker: Right now, not really going for anything crazy, kind of just trying to look for inefficiencies in the market and um take a little position here and there. um I'm seeing a lot of these types of trades right now, especially with stocks being listed. It gives more opportunities, um especially on the short side, you know, SK Highs.
Speaker: these kind of assets, for example, if they had a good run up, you could have traded it in both directions pretty much ah with like getting paid funding to short, you know, also. So it's like. Yeah.
Speaker: And then I think crypto is going to see a lot of bouncy action. Yeah,
Speaker: yeah just you know, at some point in my nuke, but like even after the new Greg, you're going to have an opportunity to long it. and like, and I still see opportunities in the market. Um, I'm just trying to ensure that I'm like more locked in and more consistent and create a smoother p and L curve when I trade now.
Speaker: Um, so yeah just try to like avoid holding drawdowns like nowadays like i'm i mean like previously it was like i like to be fluid with the market right and if i'm like way too levered up in a position it makes it hard for me to want to get out because of all the slippage and all the fees that you're going to pay right when you every time you get in and out of these positions so Now that I've like sized down a decent amount, it's a lot easier for me to like take advantage of that type of activity.
Speaker: Like just getting out. If I feel like I'm going to have a drawdown, I'll just get out and set like some scaling bids to like enter lower and then just go to sleep. And like one of my main issues, I think, was like I had like this deep fear of like missing out, right? Of like, you know, what if the price goes up to like whatever and then I was in max size, right?
Speaker: um And I would count that as like an L almost like comparative to like a financial all out. You know, it it had like almost equal weight in my mind.
Speaker: you know, but now I've like sort of a, did to a mentality where I'm just like, I don't have a fucking chance to give a fuck anymore. And and like, oh you know what mean? Like a missed opportunity is a missed opportunity. There's just still going to be millions of possible opportunities.
Speaker: And I think that's like the main issue that i was like suffering from was like, what if I don't maximize like having the nuts you know like as they would call in poker basically like the best hand possible you get all in right like but like yeah i was just like too perfectionist and like um kind of like idealistic thinking on like the whole the whole thing yeah and uh now i'm just going for like a more
Speaker: fractal based pattern recognition, kind of like waiting for something to just show up that looks good and then take it for the risk reward that it presents me and then rinse and repeat that kind of strategy.
Speaker: I mean, would it would be great if we could all just like use every single opportunity that the market gave us every day, but I guess it's kind of a bit impossible. I definitely get like, I think right now it's not really the time for that, but like when everything is going up and like everyone around you is making money left and right, and especially with like the stupidest stuff as well, and you're kind of like, even if you're doing good, you kind of feel like you're underperforming a bit.
Speaker: So you really want to like maximize all the the opportunity that you do get and like get the most out of it.
Speaker: yeah yeah yeah like i've i've it's more of a personal development kind of thing it's like why are these things bothering you when they shouldn't right the fact that you didn't maximize the fact that you didn't do this and that um like there's so many things to be upset about in training like that you can find and you can um basically just like and it i still let myself do it sometimes and i like it actually can compound and spiral, you know, if you keep doing it. So I just try to like trade smaller. So it's like less of that when you have it, it's not as like hurtful, I guess.
Speaker: And you kind of just try to eat it and like move on to build that sort of, uh, just that ability to just tank the L like nothing happened, you know, or and then just let it be numbers. And, uh,
Speaker: yeah
Speaker: What has trading been like for you since maybe on 10.10 and also after? Because crypto has kind of like died for the most part and nothing has been really going on unless you were like so shorting the top and then riding that and then maybe did you move more into trade-fi markets like especially since they came on hype with HIP3 trading gold and oil and stocks now?
Speaker: So I had a very unique story actually for 1010. I actually made money on 1010 because I saw it um right before it happened. Basically, I was um about to go play on this poker show and then I go... um I was in my car. I actually bring my laptop with me everywhere to just in case I need a trade or like manage my trades.
Speaker: So I was just like in my car, you know, managing my trades like right before the thing. And then I was like, dude, this shit looks weak as fuck. And I shorted it. So I was long and then I like closed it and then shorted like a pretty tiny amount, you know, like a small size.
Speaker: and went to the show came out and it was like i opened my laptop and i was looking at the order books and it was like didn't really make sense to me because i was like why are the numbers so low like i thought like there was a glitch or there was like a bug yeah for a book and then i was just like scrambling to close the position and like somehow you know got some so got like most of the size out like even i had like wicked up a little bit already by then And like, yeah, ended up being like a fat green day because of that.
Speaker: yeah.
Speaker: So I just kept trading crypto basically since then because I was still riding the heater, you know? like Like, I was, like, still like just, I mean, it wasn't ever, like, after that day never really got that great. Like, I think I was still, like, chopping around, like, a pretty hard amount. ah and But, like, always, like, ending green somehow.
Speaker: And then, yeah, after the Arthur tweet, it just was, like, never the same anymore because it was, like, um it was, like, fuck, dude, like, and that was honestly the third time that I had like downslung, like a mil plus. And it like kind of mentally broke me. Like it was like, um, was like a mil or two, three mil. Like I had like multiple, like one and a half to two mil down swings. Right. For like the, where I would like eventually climb back out slowly over time. Right. Right. Over like the span of, uh, I guess maybe like eight months.
Speaker: And then, uh, the Arthur tweet not only was it was like way bigger of a downswing but it was just like very unexpected price action on hype too during that time where it was just like not readable in terms of like how low but when when when was this like recently when he when he was like shilling it to 150 or whatever he said No, was when he dumped hype and some other coin. I think it was like near some shit. And then like, he's like, yeah, I just dumped the whole bag. And then it just started.
Speaker: But like, I think it was also like the timing of it. Um, the market was already on like edge, I think. And that just like triggered the, bosom um, and I was just too levered up to like act on time.
Speaker: And, uh, yeah
Speaker: I was also going to have been working with the hate of like sobriety of like trying that's like an interesting factor that I think matters that is kind of weird but I want to point out was like I was going through personal issues, relational issues in life. And then also was going through like a 40 day sobriety period where I was like trying to stop smoking weed, basically random fact. But like I was trying to stop smoking weed, like doing it for like 40 days straight. I think at some point either my mind just became less fluid or I was just like too attached to the position because I, uh,
Speaker: you know i don't know. I think I was like almost gambling hard in a way to like compensate for the lack of dopamine um that I was having from...
Speaker: ah
Speaker: you know just staying ablaze daily you know so like like yeah yeah so just a random weird thing that I think actually matters like mental health and like your ability to like produce a lot of natural dopamine will probably prevent you from making unnecessary um actions in the market so that has kind of taught you to like stay away from the markets a bit more if if that happens again in the future
Speaker: Yeah. Or if you're like in that kind of stadium down and don't have access to like that much margin. Basically.
Speaker: And now more recently you've been trading more stocks rather than crypto. I guess crypto is kind of a bit dead right now. So stocks are kind of the only thing that is moving a bit at least. I mean, I just like to trade whatever is available on the exchange, right? Like whatever is high volume and the chart looks tradable that I'll trade it like For example, like I i shorted Microsoft um that today at like 484, 485 around there.
Speaker: Just because I saw some kid on IG posting like these videos flexing his gains on it. And then I looked at the chart and I was like, dude, this looks like a fucking bearish chart where this kid's about to give back some gains if he doesn't exit.
Speaker: the so I just took a short just for that reason you know but like yeah I'm trading stocks on there like
Speaker: why not and so you mostly trade trade on like ah sentiment and stuff that you see and like patterns on the chart yeah pretty is that what you look for for entering a trade yeah Like I look at, you know, the order flow in the hyper liquid books and like sometimes if I'm desperate, I'll look at the liquidation levels.
Speaker: But like, um yeah, it's mainly just ah what I see it in the trend based off of the fractal. and determining where it's at in that trend on the lower time frame basically to determine if it's like an exit or entry LTF like daily swings now um but yeah
Speaker: so you found that to be like a better way to approach the current environment where there's like a bit it's a safer way to trade or like less volatility yeah anymore like it's actually more volume generated but like your variance on like outcomes will be lower i think Um, because you're gonna make some, and then you might take some losses here and there and let, but like overall, I think I have an edge in that aspect. I just never really applied it because I was always doing these massive trades where I was trying and those for that size, you can't really do it. Right. Like for, for like, you know, when you're hitting like 15, 20 M notional, you can't really employ the intraday swing strategy that I'm doing now.
Speaker: Mm-hmm.
Speaker: are you Are you farming for like a potential ah season three hyperliquid airdrop or a tradex for the airdrop? Do you think any of that is going to happen? At one point I was brainwashed to believe that it was going to happen. But now I feel like if it does happen, it's going to be at least like a year or two.
Speaker: i don't know how it would work, but I'm hoping that I i fucking get something, dude, because I've paid like Over a million and a half in fees, unfortunately. And I know this because I referred my own wallets and it tells me, and I'm just like, holy fuck, I can't believe I paid that many fees. But even like, but that's actually caused me to trade a little bit differently now in terms of like how I execute.
Speaker: So now I'll just use like way more chase limit orders and limit orders and like scaling bids, scaling exits. When I market order in, I kind of just like half market order in. So I'll like try to use limit orders where I can, where I can make her.
Speaker: Do you think any of the other DEXs are interesting besides Hyperliquid? of like the current ones are the popping up or like kind of trying to take some market share and i mean i guess it's possible that it won't be the like a winner takes all market the same as it has been with binance and bybit and okx and all of that stuff how do you feel about that
Speaker: um have you looked at any of the other dexes or the thing that matters the most is uh Someone building the best product and front end for a trader to trade perp dex wise.
Speaker: Right. Um, and so far I feel like a lot of the other perp dexes are not really giving anything special at all other than the points program that they provide, which is like the only reason why i used variational.
Speaker: I mean, actually, lighter has some advantages, right? So it depends, right? Like if you actually trade like really small and doesn't matter, and you can use lighter and like not pay any fees, right? So I mean, why not, right? if you're on If you're trading extremely small, doesn't matter.
Speaker: um But like, for example, like variational, there's actually like really no benefit because you're paying more in the spread that they give you than you would pay on like any other exchange. yeah The only reason why you do it now is at the airdrop.
Speaker: um You're hoping that the airdrop is plus EV on your volume paid. And I paid a fuck ton in spread there. So I don't know, like if I, I'm probably not even going to net like more than what I paid in spread, honestly.
Speaker: I would say the only cool things that are really happening are like builder code projects that actually care about the front end. um I think build code is like the future of perp decks in terms of like something potentially interesting popping off because the liquidity is never going to be an issue and the users can just focus on like the product and like the front end UI UX.
Speaker: Yeah. So I feel like, yeah, there's a lot more happening in builder code potentially than, ah just these other random perp decks that no one's, they're just trying to leech off of HL's hype right now.
Speaker: And like, it's too old to leech at this point. I think variational is like going to be the last, you know, profitable, like random perp decks project to farm.
Speaker: I guess we will we will see. Bitex talked a lot about Q3, Q4, prep-dex wars now that like many TGEs are kind of supposed to happen soon. And I guess then we will see if points farming was worth it, and if they if especially if the dexes can survive after points programs ended the way that Hyperliquid has, which is definitely interesting to see. But especially given current market conditions, doesn't seem like that high of a probability.
Speaker: But maybe we will pick up into the end of the year again, so... Yeah, some hopium there. Hopium, dude. Smoking a lot of it.
Speaker: what What are your current views on on the market at all, like on on the crypto side? Do you think the bottom is in Yeah, I don't know. My views are constantly adapting, right? So I don't ever want to get stuck on a view and like hard ah get stuck on it. That's just like not really my in line with my new strategy and doesn't like so right now.
Speaker: what the macro view is actually doesn't really matter as long as I'm not sleeping in positions. Um, I'm just waiting for something to happen and then reacting when it happens basically at this point.
Speaker: Um, but like,
Speaker: it's kind of interesting. Uh, I think Bitcoin is showing signs that it's bottomed. Like, It seems like sellers have slowed down, but then there's just not a lot of buyers yet to make the price really jump around.
Speaker: um So like the price is not really doing that much. And also the bounce on hype just now is like pretty weak. and like there's like a lot of factors right now that are making me lean like we might have like more weeks i think maybe like towards the end of august we'll see more of like whether we're actually gonna bottom but like right now i feel like a lot is given not gonna be enough data to really determine where uh yeah the like end game is for this current chart because um
Speaker: are you still Are you still as bullish on Hyperliquid as you've been on the beginning? Like with the HIP3 developments now, HIP4, and then I think I've seen a post that this was pretty bullish on like priority fees, that those are going to be like might double and like bring a lot of more buybacks and then this like complicated abbreviation of AQV2, whatever it means, where they're like getting the fees from USCC as well. Yeah.
Speaker: um I'm still bullish long term because I believe in Jeff. No homo. ah No, I just honestly think he's going to deliver and he's going to find a way to get it done. Like he always has, you know, and, uh, he's just a much more competent founder than CZ.
Speaker: And, um, I feel like we've have not seen what Jeff has really is really capable of. And like in the next like three, four years, you're going to see more of like his legacy really coming to fruition.
Speaker: Um, like, yeah, like he's only 27 and i honestly like, i just think he's not going to stop until he reaches with his mission.
Speaker: Like, um, yeah, so I'm pretty bullish overall on that. And I know he's like reaching some hardships with regulations, but, uh, I believe based off of the way he structured the token that he was already aware of all these things were going to happen and he was prepared for it.
Speaker: Um, but like, yeah, uh, I am more concerned about like,
Speaker: I guess, perp volume staying consistent. I don't know why. I just feel like perp volume might die down for a moment that might cause the price to drop.
Speaker: But, um, I'm, I'm actually more concerned about like perp volume dying down than, uh, than regulation. I feel like Jeff gets it done. Yeah. Um, but yeah. like ah um but yeah
Speaker: I feel like regulation is a pretty easy doom because it's kind of like cryptos and industries also associated with Trump and then the midterms aren't looking so good for for the Republicans and probably i'm i'm not like too into US politics but I guess it's not unlikely that the Democrats will become president in 2028 and then they will come ah after after all of us for the sins that Trump has committed but um I mean, I guess it also depends on how things will play out. They do seem to have like plans and they have like this foundation or whatever it's called. That's too far from now. They're in talks.
Speaker: Yeah, that's true. That's only going to matter. It's still an area of concern. and It's like. yeah Yeah, it is a long term area of concern, but like it's like if if the price pumped into that event, then I would sell. Right. So it all depends on like what happens leading into that.
Speaker: But um yeah, for sure. I understand what you mean.
Speaker: I think perhaps volumes dropping off more is definitely concern as well, which has also affected like other centralized exchanges in the past. and other like Since Hyperleague is taking more share of them and centralized exchanges are kind of struggling, like BitMEX has closed down and this other random exchange that I've already forgot the name of that no one used. But like maybe we'll we will see more of those closures happening as crypto volumes are kind of decreasing.
Speaker: So we can only hope that the bottom is in soon and volumes are going to pick up again and people are going to be interested in our ponzies. Maybe if they only buy coins with revenue like pump and hype or whatever, but at least like they buy something and it's not just going to all go to... or we're go just going to get out of the boring boring summer drift where nothing is really happening and and things start to be a bit more interesting again.
Speaker: I could also see a world where... So like everyone's trying to do tokenized stocks now, right? So I could see a world where Hyperliquid literally has everything available to trade and that there would no need to ever trade on anywhere else. And um that is what gives crypto like value because then people would just keep their money in crypto, right? Because then you don't need to be in financial finance anymore because you can allocate the risk that you want to like exposure that, you know, you you didn't have before via crypto. Right. So like you're just comfortably ablein't able to go wherever you want to go without actually moving your money off chain.
Speaker: Right. That's like the future that like Jeff wants to build to. And like, yeah if that happens and like more money would go into crypto just for that ease of, um,
Speaker: like the ease of like, you know, getting risk in, in like the various places that you want.
Speaker: I mean, that's kind of the vision of like this house of all of finance, but I think there's a good discussion there to be made about who these inflows are actually gonna be for, because I feel like it's really good if you're a crypto native, if you already have your money in crypto, it's vastly superior to like trade stuff on Hyperliquid, then off board and make a brokerage account and put it on there and whatever.
Speaker: But for other people,
Speaker: Like, if if you're in a developed country, you probably already have access to a lot of financial tools. If you're in a developing country, you probably don't have that much money to trade with. So, it's kind of interesting to think about, like, where the net new users are going to come from, or if there's actually, like, the frictionless experience will be that good that there will be enough new people to increase the volume over time.
Speaker: Yeah. Um...
Speaker: So that's the thing. Like if Jeff is ah actually able to, so here's the thing, right? Like FOMO is somehow legally allowed to exist in the U S. Right.
Speaker: Um, and they're kind of just following the same rules that hyperliquid's following.
Speaker: So like, uh, If Hyrulequid is like legally allowed to allow US citizens at some point for whatever reason, like ah ah the asset basically goes up like 2x like instantly.
Speaker: you know I mean, there has been this speculation from like ah what they had on the test night with these HIP3 permissioned markets where some people were like the market makers may be able to share the liquidity with like the other books because it has to be a different book if you're KYC or whatever and then they will do some crypto back-end magic or whatever to to keep the liquidity the same.
Speaker: ah maybe Maybe that's how they're going to do it, but It's still like, I mean, it is convenient and stuff, but would people like, would a normal person would still rather use hyperliquid instead of other perpetual offers if like banks and institutions start to move more aggressively in that area?
Speaker: Honestly, i actually haven't really speculated in this part that much. And I guess that's like to my fault, you know? um But apparently the Clarity Act is not going to get passed.
Speaker: Mm-hmm. Like, on poly market, it's like 70% not going to pass right now. Yeah.
Speaker: Maybe we just have to wait and see and like it's going to passed next year or if at all or whatever or they're going change it in some way. And because i think there's probably again, I don't really know US politics, but from what I infer from Twitter discussion, there won't be much stuff done for the rest of the year once it's like August recess starts and then we just have to wait until the cards get like mixed.
Speaker: Yeah. you Again, and we see next year, whatever they're going to do
Speaker: At least maybe that will bring a bit more certainty where we can be like, okay, this event is all over, like the midterms are low pricey and like we know what's going to happen and then next year over over the course of whatever is going to happen, we can be like, hey, maybe the Clarity Act doesn't get passed, but we still have like more clarity on it not getting passed so we can like price it in in some way.
Speaker: Right.
Speaker: yeah I think that's a good point to to there's like a lot of stuff looming over it and like it already experienced a pop so it's probably not gonna have too great of price action for a month or so well you never know because like hype's always doing like crazy so so
Speaker: I was just going to say, I think this is a good point to to wrap it up unless you have any any more points that you want to make. I think I've talked about what wanted to talk about. no I think it was a really good chat. i appreciate you having me on. Thank you.
Speaker: Yeah, same. Thank you for coming on. All right. See you later, Sokio.
