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Sounders vs Minnesota Game 1 recap, *that* shootout, and a wider view of the MLS Cup playoffs ahead
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Jeremiah and Aaron recap a somewhat encouraging yet frustrating 0-0 loss in playoff format penalties. They also go down the rabbit hole of what seem to be in the minds of all Sounders fans - that shootout and what could have been. Rounding it out the guys briefly discuss what else they saw from teams that Seattle could face if they move on.
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Transcript
Introduction of Will Bruin and Episode Setup
00:00:01
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. Now I get to do voice reads for the Sounder at Heart Podcast Network. Here we go. Come on. Hey, O'Shaan.
00:00:14
Speaker
Let's go. The Seattle Sounders have done it. MLS Cup winners. Here comes Ruiz Diaz through the middle to crown it for Seattle.
00:00:25
Speaker
The Sounders rule the region. see of
00:00:59
Speaker
you know what was the thought process in terms of who you decided it to use and who you didn't? Ever since I wrote a commentary that we didn't take the outcome seriously.
00:01:18
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Full Pull Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Full Pull was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounder supporters.
00:01:32
Speaker
They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
00:01:42
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of Nos Adientes, part of the Sounder at Heart podcast network, sponsored by Full Pull Wines, Hacks and Ferments, and of course, you are subscribers. We're recording on Tuesday, October 28th. I am your host, Jeremiah Shan.
00:01:55
Speaker
Today, I am joined by Aaron Campo and our engineer, Lickett.
Sounders vs Minnesota: Possession vs Result
00:01:59
Speaker
The Sounders find themselves in an unfamiliar position, trailing Minnesota United 1-0 in a best of three first round series.
00:02:07
Speaker
They find themselves here because they couldn't find a goal despite creating numerous situations, scoring situations, and then falling in the penalty shootout. Aaron, in a game like this, where the Sounders have almost 70% of possession, where they more than double the XG output of Minnesota United, where they created several very good scoring chances, do you come out of it confident that they played a solid game? And if they do that, they'll be able to
00:02:39
Speaker
you know, if they do that at home that they should win or do you come out at frustrated that for all they did positive, they still are down one zero. Like that game counts for nothing. I think both. I mean, I, i um I think you're crazy not to be frustrated ah with not being able to convert a couple of like, you know, the, the two good chances Moose have the good chance Rothrock had one of those not going in ah is very frustrating.
00:03:08
Speaker
And, know, um it's, you know, especially when you know that you're sort of at a disadvantage going into penalties, as I felt like it was kind of obvious the Sounders did.
00:03:20
Speaker
um It's definitely frustrating to not score. But I also think if they repeat that performance in Seattle, and and probably if they repeat that performance again in Minnesota, they'll go through. So I think it can be both things. I think as a wise man once said, sometimes ball not go in.
00:03:37
Speaker
And Ball not go in, you know, it's just, it's, it's, it's very frustrating to get chances like that late and, and not be able to capitalize on them, especially when those are the kinds of chances that Danny Mussofsky has been able to capitalize on all year.
00:03:52
Speaker
um The Rothrock chances would have been a ah pretty vintage Rothrock type goal. They had a few other good looks that maybe didn't have the big chance designation or or wouldn't registered as high on the SG chart, but yeah,
00:04:05
Speaker
we're were very solid looks that they weren't able to convert. so And, you know, you have to hope that you look back on this game as a proof of concept of what they were able to do and the in the next two legs, but they were able to to have the the final touch and and convert those chances rather than, ah you know, indicative of the ah the eventual cause of their their downfall.
00:04:29
Speaker
Yeah, so um I'm going to share a couple stats that sort of illustrate, I think, the point
Analyzing Sounders' Rare Scoreless Match
00:04:34
Speaker
you're talking about. One of them is that Sounders had 2.4 XG, which I don't know, that may sound like gobbledygook to a lot of people, but I'll give you some context for it.
00:04:44
Speaker
The Sounders played 47 games this year. This was the 48th game. In the 47 previous games they had played, they had... never failed to score in a game where they were over 1.5 and they had almost a full goal more than that, uh, in this game, uh, to also illustrative of this point, they had four big chances. They've had exactly four big chances in 10 other games in eight of them or nine of them. I should say they scored at least one goal. The only other time that they had four big chances and didn't score though, was that Minnesota United in the previous game.
00:05:23
Speaker
Right. yeah Which is to say, like, these are like the centers genuinely created real scoring opportunities. I think the two Mussofsky chances were probably where they were the best. You know, the the first one ends up going in the book as something like point eight XG.
00:05:40
Speaker
ah That's the one where Morris slips him in and he oh he's he makes a great move to open himself up. He has a clean look on goal. looks like he's trying to five hole Dane St. Clair. St. Clair just gets his knee down right in time and and it doesn't go in.
00:05:55
Speaker
And then, but the other one in some ways is even more frustrating because Morris hits a very hard cross. It's, you know, it's, it's coming in fast, but,
00:06:07
Speaker
Mussovsky is able to get his forehead on it. He's got an open goal in front of him. This is almost the exact kind of goal you expect. but so This is the kind of goal Mussovsky has been scoring all year.
00:06:18
Speaker
And he shoots it over the bar. That one goes in the book is like 0.5 XG. I mean, you get a 0.5 and a 0.8 XG chance late in the game. you're kind of figuring you're going to score one of those. yeah And those were, I mean, maybe the XG overvalues those a little bit because of the circumstance, but still those were, those were genuinely great scoring chances.
00:06:42
Speaker
And ah they they had a couple others as well, but I don't know. It's, it's very frustrating that, that they, that they didn't score in that game. ah And you would, you really do would expect them to score some of, at least one of those chances.
00:06:57
Speaker
Yeah, and and it's the kind of thing where it really is a witch, whether you're looking through the rose-colored side of your your glasses or not, right um to say, look, this they've they've created chances. They've shown that they can break down Minnesota's low block.
00:07:13
Speaker
They've shown that they can be dangerous against them. ah they were much better, I think, at creating chances than they were the last time they played in Minnesota. And you can feel positive about that. Or you can say, this is not a Minnesota team that is in the habit of giving up a lot of good chances. And, know,
00:07:30
Speaker
they weren't able to convert them and Minnesota is going to look at the tape and make some adjustments for the next couple of games. And it's going to be that much harder. I tend to think that it's much more likely that the Sounders are not going to have three straight games in Minnesota where they create solid chances and don't convert them.
00:07:47
Speaker
I just think, That's the way the you know the data works, right? If you continue creating good chances, ah you're you're likely to eventually capitalize on them. And so I don't think the sounders need to change much when they when they go back to Minnesota, assuming they do go back to Minnesota. Right.
00:08:03
Speaker
Um, but I do think, you know, I've been a skeptic of single game XG a lot in the past, but I think this is a good example of why you have to go deeper because we've seen games where teams have a decent amount of XG because they take a lot of low percentage shots.
00:08:20
Speaker
The sounders created really good chances. They didn't create a ton of them, but you know, like we've established, that's not something that you... They created some great ones. And I think I would rather and a game against a team like Minnesota, I would much rather create four big chances like that than...
00:08:40
Speaker
take 20 shots that are speculative. Um, because I think it's just shots that that they created that much XG on 14 shots showed it illustrated sort of like the quality of the chances that they were.
00:08:53
Speaker
It does. And like, you know, we we've heard a lot, like, well, the sounders just aren't capable of breaking down Minnesota's low block. They did break it down. Right. they They did on several, on several occasions. And, yeah and, you know, I think people tend to also forget that they scored twice against Minnesota in Seattle when they, when they played here and and it wasn't the, the attack that was the problem on that day, you know? So, um, yeah, I, I'm still hopeful. I'm still optimistic. I expect to win the game at home.
00:09:18
Speaker
Uh, and I think they've got, you know, a ah very good chance to win the game, uh, back in Minnesota if they get to it. um, but they need to execute at least as well as they did in this game. And they need to just have a little bit more of a clinical touch at the end.
Controversial Referee Decisions
00:09:36
Speaker
Yeah. So on the other side of the ball, Minnesota generated about one XG. The biggest chance they had was early in the game. I think it was the ninth minute, uh,
00:09:48
Speaker
Bongi on, I'm not, I'm not going to go for it. We're going to call him Bongi gets sort of makes a nice move, gets himself free racing in behind Jackson, Reagan chasing him.
00:09:59
Speaker
And then right at the last minute, Reagan gives him a little push. Now, was it a big push? Was it a ah little push? I don't know. The referee doesn't call foul.
00:10:10
Speaker
Bongi gets his shot off and, and goes wide. The Minnesota fans are apoplectic, as you might imagine. Eric Ramsey after the game.
00:10:22
Speaker
i did think this is a little funny. He you talked a lot about like that he was like, I've never I've never seen a clear penalty. I'm not going to do it. The accent. ah But he has an English accent, so it's funnier when he says it.
00:10:35
Speaker
But, ah you know, he he was very upset. I thought it was weird how much energy the Minnesota was expending over the referee when they won the game. ah and And there were some calls that favored them as well, I should say. Some big calls that favored them as well.
00:10:54
Speaker
But where did you come down on that particular call? the the bras The Jackson Reagan no call? I don't think it's a foul, especially in the playoffs. I think, uh, it right, wrong or indifferent. We know that the standard for what a foul is, especially a red card fell in the playoffs is much higher. right That would probably be, you'd have to go dog. So, right. You'd have to give him a double because he's not playing the ball.
00:11:18
Speaker
You would absolutely have to. i think that if that happens to a Sounders player, um And I've heard a few people say if that happens to us, we'd feel aggrieved. I don't i don't think I would feel that aggrieved.
00:11:31
Speaker
I just I don't think that Jackson Reagan bumping into him is the difference between him converting that shot or not. um I think that if you allow Jackson Reagan to catch up to you on a break, you don't deserve a goal.
00:11:47
Speaker
i I just I did not see that much in it. I didn't I didn't see the push at all. I saw some contact. ah and Reagan is running at full sprint, and the attacker slows down to take the shot.
00:11:58
Speaker
Obviously, Reagan is responsible for not crashing into him, so I guess you could say, well, any contact fair is a foul. I just don't buy it. i don't I don't think that that's a foul most of the time.
00:12:09
Speaker
I certainly don't think it's a foul in the ninth minute of the first round of the playoffs, um and i really don't think if it had been a no-call for us that I would have been that aggrieved by it. I really don't.
00:12:22
Speaker
I mean, I i don't know that ah how aggrieved I'd feel. I will say that I know this has happened many times, especially like to Jordan Morris. I feel feel like he's been... Yes. My impression is that referees are much, much more likely to let a little bit of that shoving go on a play like that than if you come in and tackle someone from behind.
00:12:44
Speaker
all Right. Yeah. and in part because it's day more it's not as dangerous, but it's just not as... and And I guess really, whether or not it's a foul comes down to like how much force you think Jackson Rigg is applying there.
00:12:58
Speaker
I watched the replay a few times. I'm not 100% convinced that it was nothing. And I think there are instances where ah referee might call that. But in this case, I think the dog, so the double jeopardy aspect of it,
00:13:12
Speaker
helps Reagan because the referee knows if I don't feel super strongly about this being a penalty, I can't call this because I'm going to have to send them off too. And that feels like a massive punishment.
00:13:24
Speaker
Now that's a big call. Obviously i think we have, uh, I think the Sounders essentially get away with one Reagan even acknowledges that, you know, I got to be more careful there.
00:13:36
Speaker
i put yeah whether or not it was a foul. I, it was a risky situation, right? Yeah. ah But I think that sort of evens out at the very least ah later in the game.
00:13:47
Speaker
It's around the fifty fifth minute. Sounders set in a corner. ah It bounces around the box. Jordan Morris puts a header on goal. It's going on net, and there's Mark Hanish is standing on the line.
00:14:01
Speaker
His arm is out. The ball strikes his arm pretty clearly. Looks like it's going to be a penalty. And again, this may be a dog. i don't I think that would be a dog. So as well, right? that That's probably going to be a red. If you block a ball on the goal line with your hand,
00:14:19
Speaker
that's yeah That's probably red, right? Well, it doesn't matter because there's a foul called earlier in the play. I have watched this play several times. i yeah It's on Paul Rothrock. He's kind of tangled with Boxall.
00:14:33
Speaker
I don't really see much of a foul there. That felt really soft to me. but I guess I'm okay with it in a way because it's maybe it evens out, but I thought that was at least as much of a penalty and a red as, as the bongy one was.
00:14:51
Speaker
Yeah. I think that's a, I think that's a fair way to look at it. And I guess paradoxically, if you think that the Reagan foul was a soft call, you would feel like maybe the, the Rothrock foul wouldn't get called. Cause I think it was a similar level of, right I think, I think it was a little bit more of a foul than you did, but I, I do think it was soft.
00:15:09
Speaker
Um, and, and maybe that, that is the right way to look at all of those kind of very marginal calls is like, well, if you get away with it, you get away with it. You probably shouldn't be putting yourself into that situation.
00:15:20
Speaker
um But yeah, i I just I think that ah people tend to blow those marginal cause way out of proportion, I think, especially in hindsight in a game where, um you know, there there wasn't a goal.
00:15:35
Speaker
So every every call or non call was so magnified in importance. But. um I just I think it would be much better if refereeing in the playoffs was exactly the same as it was during the regular season.
00:15:49
Speaker
And if every referee called every game exactly the same way. But that's not the way it is. It's not the way it is anywhere in the world. It's it's never going to be that way because the referees aren't robots and they have their own interpretations and their own standards and everything like that.
00:16:01
Speaker
And i just don't think either call was egregious enough for anybody to be too upset about it. Yeah, I'm OK with you there. but one other big call I want to talk about.
00:16:13
Speaker
Yeah. This one I'm pissed about still. This one kind of sucks. Uh, it's, I don't know, 80th minute, 85th minute, something like that. The, uh, Minnesota United has a corner kick.
00:16:24
Speaker
They send it in and Christian rolled on is like two arms shoved to the ground. Minnesota gets the ball. They end up taking a dangerous shot, it goes wide or something, but it was a, it was a pretty dangerous shot, but this is like one of those things where it's like, if you're going to call that Paul Rothrock play, and you got to call it. Like this is, this isn't an offensive team getting a clear advantage through very obviously shoving a attacker.
00:16:57
Speaker
i I was, ah i was sort of beside myself on that one at the time, but I, again, I just go back to,
00:17:07
Speaker
it's just very funny to me that Minnesota is acting like they are particularly, they are ah uniquely aggrieved in this game by the referee calls when at the very least they were getting the benefit.
00:17:20
Speaker
ah They got, I think they came out ahead on the big calls. They they got also got away with two very orange cards in this game, too. They had the... um There was the... ah I don't remember who it was that cleaned out Rusnak late on. um Yeah.
00:17:37
Speaker
But that was very similar to the red card, Rusnak got against Portland. And then there was the much more obvious Elbow laid on, who, again, I don't remember exactly. Yeah, that was... that was on Alex...
00:17:52
Speaker
uh, Pereira, right. was the one. That's right. Pereira. Um, so, and like, look, I, I think that those are both 50, 50 calls that could go either way, but if you get two of those and you get bailed out on what would have been a red card penalty and, uh, you get away with two handed shove on ah a play that ultimately ended up leading to nothing, but could have very easily been a goal and could have also been another yellow card.
00:18:20
Speaker
Um, maybe save it and you also win the game, right? Maybe, maybe save the bit, the bitching about the referee. Yeah. I agree with you there. Yeah.
00:18:31
Speaker
Uh, again, I don't like to spend this much time on, on what was a foul, what wasn't a foul, that kind of stuff. But it's just, i think it just bugged me how much they were, how much they were complaining about it.
00:18:47
Speaker
You know, it's very, it's very annoying. Yeah. It, But ah anyway, so we we go either way. no get no score in this game. It goes to penalties.
Sounders' Penalty Shootout Defeat
00:19:01
Speaker
I don't know how confident I felt going into penalties, to be honest with you. I felt like, you know, the Sounders had won four straight penalty shootouts going back to last year's playoffs where they won both rounds.
00:19:12
Speaker
Interestingly enough, Minnesota United also advanced on a pair of penalty shootouts in the first round last year. Dane St. Clair, though, is legitimately a very good penalty stopper.
00:19:26
Speaker
And the Sounders opened this up with a, you know, ah Albert Rusnak converts. Whoever shoots for Minnesota converts. And then the number two taker was Alex. I think was Alex, right? That was the second one.
00:19:41
Speaker
Yep. And ah he I to say, i had no issue really with the five players that were selected. I've done some a fair amount of research on this.
00:19:52
Speaker
i actually have put together a spreadsheet that looked at every player, ah their penalty record, as well as their shootout record, including MLS Next Pro and international play.
00:20:04
Speaker
Alex Rodon, I think is four, four, four. There's not a lot of sounders with a ton of experience. Albert Rusnak is essentially the only one that's a regular penalty taker, but Alex has been nails when he's been up. he He'd converted both of his shootout shots.
00:20:21
Speaker
He had converted both of his actual penalties and games most recently, obviously in the league's cup final. And he just blasted it down the middle i I was a little surprised that he opted for the blast down the middle.
00:20:37
Speaker
It's not my favorite penalty, but I understand the game theory aspect of it, right? like Yeah. And that's the thing with with shootouts, too, is that you can look at the conversion rates for the different zones and and how often shots are saved.
00:20:53
Speaker
But you know if Dane St. Clair guesses right, he's almost certainly stopping whatever you do. Mm-hmm. But... I think it's a decent bet to say, well, if he dives at all, he's not going to get this.
00:21:05
Speaker
I mean, he hit the piss out of it. so if he He did hit it hard, yeah. Yeah. So if he moves off of his, you know, if he he dies either way, there's no way he's getting it. So um maybe not my favorite penalty, like I said, but it's hard for me to be critical with it. And he did what he was trying to do with it. He just, Sinclair didn't dive, you know?
00:21:26
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, Sinclair makes a good play. pretty clear that St. Clair who was in his head as well, I think. um Yeah, he he had forced he had forced Alex to move the ball. So, and what...
00:21:38
Speaker
I actually I guess I should have looked this up, but I guess what he told reporters after the game was, oh, there's a new rule where all of the like the majority of the ball has to be on the penalty spot.
00:21:49
Speaker
And like the ball was just hanging off the penalty spot. I don't know that that's a rule. I as far as I know, the rule on where the ball is placed is the same it's ever been. Uh, either way he got, he, he got the referee to, to change it. I don't know that that's, that's sort of like, this is gamesmanship. He is and between almost every penalty. He was talking to the ref. He was doing all this kind of stuff. I guess before the final one, he goes to the ref and says, if he misses this, we win. Right.
00:22:19
Speaker
Uh, which fair play, fair play. Dane St. Clair. yeah You're getting in guys heads. Uh, Steph Fry on the other hand, He doesn't have the most confident look.
00:22:33
Speaker
I will say he guessed right on at least three of them. Yeah, he didn't. He didn't come to like he may have tipped one, maybe, maybe two, but he was not close. i close The closest he got was to one that nobody was saving, which is kind of kind of ironic, right?
00:22:51
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. ah But anyway, so the where the the shootout is really kind of lost, though, is ah Chris, you know, Jackson Reagan converts his Jackson Reagan, by the way.
00:23:04
Speaker
a lot of people are wondering why Jackson Reagan is in this. He's now three for three on in shootout. So I feel like he's i um i have no I had no. I assumed he was going to take one because he's.
00:23:16
Speaker
you know, look real confident in the previous ones. Uh, but the next one was Christian rolled on and he puts his laces through it. Uh, he looks like to me, it looked good coming off his foot, but off the crossbar, he, he is now two for six on penalty shootouts in his career.
00:23:38
Speaker
i think he's hit the crossbar at least three times. Uh, and I, on one hand, I appreciate he clearly, my assumption is that he is up there saying, I want to take it.
00:23:52
Speaker
If Christian rolled on one of your team leaders says, I want to be in the penalty shootout. I think you got it. You almost have to let them.
00:24:01
Speaker
And I don't, you know, if he was getting balls saved, if he was missing, why, you know, he's shooting hot, like skying it. I, I, maybe I'd be like, uh, this is not such a good idea, but I i have a heart. Like,
00:24:17
Speaker
I don't know. He, he, he's hitting it well, ah but he is definitely struggling on shootouts. Yeah. Yeah. It's, ah it's, it's tough because I don't know who is better. Like who, who I can look at. I mean, I guess you could say maybe Jordan, maybe like I saw a lot of people say Mussofsky should be in there. I don't know that I, I'm, I don't buy that one.
00:24:44
Speaker
um But jordan I mean, Jordan missed his last penalty. You know, it's... He did. Exactly. It's one of those things. um i think I feel like Georgie took a penalty in League's Cup and and actually hit it really well. So maybe... Georgie is, two is I believe, three for three in his career on in shootouts. Yeah. um So maybe he's a better... but But again, like you said, I think it's like if Alex wants to be in the shootout, Alex needs to be in the shootout.
00:25:08
Speaker
um And yeah, I mean, I think... It's tough to see. i was almost more upset by what came after that.
00:25:20
Speaker
um Yeah. But yeah, it's, it is because, because Alex did hit it really well or Christian did hit hit it really well and just, you know. So ah Minnesota converts the, yeah they, but they give the Sounders a little bit of life because Julian Gressel hits it off the,
00:25:41
Speaker
off the, off the ah post. So it it, it gives the Sounders a chance for and a fifth attempt. yeah Danny Leyva, again, another player who I would, I'm totally fine being in this lineup.
00:25:55
Speaker
Leyva is very good in training on, on penalties. He had been three for three in the next pro on penalties. I have a lot of confidence in him. He sends Dane St. Clair the wrong way, but he hits it off the post.
00:26:11
Speaker
He did everything perfectly and all he has to do is pass it into the bottom of the net, into the corner. yeah and so Yeah. It's, it's shocking that he missed that penalty to me. Yeah.
00:26:23
Speaker
And you know, like that fifth spot is supposed to be a person you feel extremely confident is going score. And ah maybe, I mean, maybe you could say Rosnack should have been taking I don't know.
00:26:35
Speaker
um Instead of first, you mean? Yeah, you know, but then you run the risk of not even getting to him. Right. And that' and that's always the... If I remember correctly, that's what happened in 21 when they lost to RSL is they saved Ladero for fifth and they didn't even get to the fifth spot.
00:26:55
Speaker
Right, right. Yeah, shootouts are one of the most confounding things in soccer because...
00:27:04
Speaker
There is a lot of data about them that tells you this is the right thing to do or this is the wrong thing to do. But there is so much game theory that goes into all of that that I just feel so much less confident in any of that than I do like for any other element of of the game and what the numbers are telling you.
00:27:26
Speaker
Yeah. like So, you know, the the flip. So the other side of the of the shootout, though, where I think a lot of the discourse has been focused is who should be in goal for the Sounders.
Goalkeeper Debate: Andrew Thomas vs Stefan Frei
00:27:39
Speaker
yeah For me.
00:27:42
Speaker
it was not surprised. I would have been shocked if if. Schmetzer had subbed out fry for Andrew Thomas on like the last play of the game. It does seem like a kind of complicates thing. Cause you have to do it before the game's over, right? You can't do it yeah going into the shootout.
00:27:59
Speaker
Uh,
00:28:01
Speaker
I was not surprised that, you know, Andrew Thomas, it should be said, has a ah pretty impeccable record in shootouts. He is seven and one as a professional. The last time I found and then yeah I think he he's at least eight and one is his last one of his last appearances in college was shoot when he saves about 30 or he's only about.
00:28:25
Speaker
70% of the shooters score against him, which is a very good, or maybe even less than that, ah score against him. he you know He obviously had this great performance in in the League's Cup.
00:28:39
Speaker
He's a good shot stopper. Yeah. I guess let's before we get into what we want to see next, how did you feel about the decision to leave Frye in? So I thought there was so little chance of...
00:28:56
Speaker
of Stephen Fry getting pulled from that game that I felt like getting mad about it was like getting mad at Republicans for not passing tax increases on billionaires. Like, what do you like it's just it's just not going to happen in this game.
00:29:09
Speaker
And I just can't invest any emotional energy into it. um But after the shootout, I don't feel like Steph can get another one, whether that means...
00:29:23
Speaker
If you go back to Minnesota, Andrew Thomas just gets the start because shootout's on the table. I mean, obviously they they could have a shootout in Seattle, but I do think that you have to go into that game with the mentality of we are winning this game at home.
00:29:37
Speaker
Right. And so you can't even be thinking about a shootout. ah If the game goes back to Minnesota and you don't feel comfortable making that change late, then I think you've got to start Andrew Thomas. And the thing that really sealed it for me is that I don't think the Sounders penalty takers had confidence that Steph was going to bail them out.
00:29:55
Speaker
Like after Jackson Reagan converts his penalty.
00:30:00
Speaker
He points at Steph and says, come on, Steph, and not in like a. come on Steph. Right. in a more like, like, come on, dude, do your job sort of way And that, I mean, that speaks volumes. And like, I hate to do the body language thing. I totally, i do.
00:30:18
Speaker
Yeah. But I know what Steph Fry looks like when he is commanding the penalty area on corners, when he's coming out from crosses. And I know what looks like when he's standing on his line. Yeah. Yeah. He's like kind crouched in this old timey position.
00:30:33
Speaker
He just doesn't look like he has any confidence that he's going to stop the shots. And. and and I and I think that that has to get into the heads of the penalty takers. I think that it has to be like.
00:30:45
Speaker
If you're a Minnesota penalty taker. And you feel like this guy's not getting to anything. it's going to make you less likely to miss, I think, because you don't feel like you need to put as much mustard on it. Maybe, you know, um and just i will say there for the most part, their takes were really good. They were they were good.
00:31:03
Speaker
They were good for sure. For sure. Gretzl's aside. Right.
00:31:09
Speaker
But it's not just this game, you know, like we have a lot of stuff, right? penalty shootouts. We have a lot of stuff, right? Yeah. And he's just, he's the best keeper in club history by ah million miles.
00:31:22
Speaker
And, and I still think he should probably be the starter. Everything else considered. But he just is not ah he's not the guy for penalties. He's just not. And you you contrast that to how Andrew Thomas looks in a shootout.
00:31:36
Speaker
Steph Fry is never turning to the crowd and saying, I'm going to win the shootout right now and going and right. He's just not. but It's just and that is so much of it. And it is it is so much of it because it's, you know, it's it's just a it's all mentality, I feel like, in shootouts.
00:31:55
Speaker
Yeah, so here's here's the actual data. ah Andrew Thomas includes... Andrew Thomas has actually faced... ah has been in He's faced more shots in... I guess that's to be expected because he's you a lot of them were in Nexpro.
00:32:09
Speaker
But no he has saved 17... 17 penalty takers have not scored against him out of ah forty six shooters in shootouts That's a save percent. That's us roughly that's that's like 35 percent.
00:32:32
Speaker
What is yeah? 37. thirty seven Yeah. Something like that. ah Steph Fry has it faced 42 shots in a shootout and all but six of them have scored.
00:32:45
Speaker
That's about what? 86. 86 percent conversion rate. Yeah. So 12 or 14% save. Right. Yeah.
00:32:56
Speaker
Yeah. Not great. that's not a, it's not a huge sample, but it's not a small sample either. I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's a lot of shots.
00:33:09
Speaker
He also, he's faced 68 penalties in games and only five of them haven't scored. 63 his opponents are 63 for 65 of him in actual on actual penalties which is like 5% no it's like 8% so he saved how he so 65 faced in no faced and converted okay so that is
00:33:42
Speaker
eight percent yeah Yeah. It's just not, it's just not a thing he's good at, you know, he's a great goal. And it's, i here and here I guess is where I come down is if the Sounders are going to lose in penalties, know,
00:33:59
Speaker
I feel like they need they need to have they need to give themselves the best chance they can. and yeah And Andrew Thomas just gives them a better chance on penalties.
00:34:10
Speaker
yeah and And i like I'm with you. I think if you are in game two, maybe you don't. This isn't how you approach it. But game three, this has to be something that you talk about.
00:34:21
Speaker
like And maybe you don't want to get it. in And I get it. You know, there's a lot of this is... man management, right? You're still man managing. You're still, you still, if you believe Steph Fry gives you the best chance to win in 90 minutes, you got to start it.
00:34:35
Speaker
And, yeah and I don't think you want to put the doubt in his head, especially in game two, that, you have anything but full confidence in them. But if you go into game three, I think you, you, you, maybe you don't even talk to them.
00:34:50
Speaker
Maybe you just surprise them. I don't know. I don't know. But like, i do think that a hard conversation, there has to be some hard conversations about what do we do in a shootout? And honestly, I'd be okay with those same five guys taking the penalties.
00:35:05
Speaker
Uh, You know, am I not going to say those are my ideal five, but I i would be I'd be OK with it. Even Tristan and missing, you know, he's only two for six on penalties.
00:35:16
Speaker
Also, I kind of feel like he's due. Like, yeah, there's no way. Right. He's not going two for seven. Come on.
00:35:25
Speaker
But yeah, I do feel like there's there needs to be a conversation. I think it's always dangerous to to feel like I, you know, you know, these guys ah you do to a much greater degree than I and I do or most most people do.
00:35:40
Speaker
But Steph feels self-aware enough to know. Like that, he's not good at this, that this is just not a strong suit of his game. Maybe he's so competitive that he doesn't care and he he feels like he can adjust and go out and prove that he's good enough.
00:35:59
Speaker
But he has to know. about his track record. He just he has to. He has to be. I mean, he's got to be. Yeah. he has gun And if he's not somebody from, you know, from the coaching staff needs to bring him a spreadsheet.
00:36:14
Speaker
But i just I don't feel like he could be especially surprised and I don't feel like he should be especially aggrieved. Like I love Stefan Fry. He is one of the all time legends of this club, ah one of the most beloved figures in club history.
00:36:30
Speaker
seems like a wonderful, wonderful man. ah Is in large part responsible for a lot of trophies we've won over the years. But part of his job is stopping penalties and he doesn't do it.
00:36:44
Speaker
And if it's the difference between your season ending and not. Sorry, man, like it's just not a thing you're good at. Yeah, and I think that where it comes down for me is if you're going to go out in the first round, do you want to feel like you left bolts in the chamber? Do you want to feel like you, you know, you, you pulled out all the stops yeah and you did everything you could and you don't want to go in second. I think at this point you just, you wouldn't second guess yourself. If you say, look, we're going to give Andrew the shot because we've, we've, he's proven that he's good at this.
00:37:16
Speaker
And if we don't win with Andrew and goal, You shrug your shoulders and you say, look, we did everything we could. Andrew's probably going to be the starter next year anyway.
00:37:29
Speaker
Sorry. Like, I really sorry, Steph, to do that. But that's that's what we had to do.
00:37:38
Speaker
and i And I just don't feel like you're going to... I feel like if like if Steph lifts you to the win, okay, I get it. I honestly feel like you kind of dodged him. Okay, great, you dodged that bullet.
00:37:49
Speaker
Right. But is he going to be your penalty guy the next stop still? Like, is that... You still feel good about that? I also think, too,
00:38:01
Speaker
if Do you want to keep feeling like you have to dodge that bullet? Like if you get like you said, if you get if he gets you out of it in this round or Minnesota bails you out. Sorry, but that's the more likely scenario in a shootout.
00:38:16
Speaker
Are you going to feel good about going into the next game and having him be the one to take penalties because they become more likely? And you yeah. Or would you rather set the tone early and say, look, Steph, you're going to keep starting.
00:38:29
Speaker
But when it's time for penalties, Andrew is getting the call. Cause I think it's going to be much harder for him to deal with that. If it's, if he wins a shootout here and then you're in the conference finals, you know?
00:38:43
Speaker
So I think it's just, I think it's the right thing to do. Yeah. I'm, I'm with you there. ah Yeah, it's and it I'll just bring this up. i Steph is he's three and five and shootouts in his career ah with this in his career with this. Yeah, in his career.
00:39:00
Speaker
ah He won the first he won the biggest one. He won that 2016 MLS Cup. He made a save on Michael Bradley. Then ah the other guy put it off the the crossbar. But hey, he deserves credit for that win.
00:39:15
Speaker
And then he lost the next four that he was in. Actually, that wasn't his first. His first one, I guess, was ah Dallas the year before, but whatever. he He did not look good in any subsequent shootouts after that.
00:39:27
Speaker
and tell And then even in the Dallas or in the Houston one last year, where he won both shootouts, he only made one save. And he wasn't really that close to making the others.
00:39:39
Speaker
ah So he just doesn't... It just doesn't... Fill you with confidence, you know? um Yeah. But let's win this in regulation and not have to worry about this stuff. Yeah.
00:39:52
Speaker
Yeah. That would be that would be nice. That would be nice. hate shootouts. i hate them, too. they are unpleasant. Everyone hate shootouts. Does anyone ever, does anyone who's got a game ever say fucking love shootouts, dude. It's the gets the energy going.
00:40:10
Speaker
No one says that. Yeah. I mean, even, even in games where the sounders were lucky to be in a position to get to a shootout, I still hated the shootout. Like I've never felt like, Oh, thank, like, thank God.
00:40:22
Speaker
We got that to a shootout, you know, but you know, and honestly, I think there's only been one time in my entire memory of the Sounders that they felt lucky to get to the shootout. And that was the, yeah, that was the 2016 final.
00:40:38
Speaker
And almost every other one, they, they felt like they fell backwards into it, you know? Yeah. Like, yeah, Maybe a few where it was like, okay, I guess we'll take it. But almost all of them, I feel like they have been the better team and they kind of screwed themselves by even getting to the shootout.
00:40:55
Speaker
Yep. Yeah. Agree with that. 100%. Anyway. ah I guess maybe the the Portland one.
00:41:09
Speaker
No, but even then. Nah. In what, 2018? Yeah, 2018. Yeah. I don't it know, I have to go back. Yeah, because they did have to, they had to have a pretty good performance at home to get there for sure, but yeah.
00:41:31
Speaker
Anyway, thank you for listening to the Sounder at Heart Podcast Network, which now includes Nos Adietes, Loving Scorchers, and The Cooler Guild. Although this podcast is free, it's only made possible through our paid subscribers.
00:41:43
Speaker
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00:42:20
Speaker
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00:42:46
Speaker
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Speaker
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00:43:48
Speaker
Well, yeah. Games on Monday could be the last. i mean, either way, it might be the last home game of the season. It probably, even if they win this game, there's a pretty good chance it's the last home game of the season.
00:44:03
Speaker
Cause they are going to be, you know, uh, they, they would potentially play San Diego next if they, or there's a chance that would be Portland. I don't think that's going to be the case. so Portland got was very, you know, it was funny not to get sidetracked, but Portland got played off the park and yet they had a really good chance to equal it, to pull out, to get that to a shootout.
00:44:29
Speaker
Uh,
00:44:31
Speaker
I don't think I don't think they're going to do much though. and And even at home against San Diego.
00:44:39
Speaker
Yeah. I mean,
00:44:43
Speaker
i don't want to say that I hope they do because I don't want to play I would. Yeah. I would say I'd rather play San Diego. Yeah. I just, and maybe that's partially just because I hate playoff games against Portland so much. Yeah.
00:44:58
Speaker
We've never knocked them out of the playoffs. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe we're doing that too. I think we would this year. They're, they're not very good. Um, but I, I think we stand a decent chance against San Diego.
00:45:09
Speaker
So, uh, we would, we would host them though, which would, would be nice, but Portland. Yeah, I do. I don't, I think it's a moot point. Like you said, so. And we'll say Vancouver looked fantastic against, uh,
00:45:24
Speaker
Against Dallas. We haven't seen LA in the playoffs yet. LA is playing on Wednesday. Crazy playoff schedule. It's a, such a weird schedule, man. It's so weird. I don't, do we want to talk about this?
00:45:35
Speaker
We want to talk about the playoffs, the wider thing, the schedule. Yeah. Do we, yeah, I mean, I don't, I, I understand what they're trying to do with the format.
00:45:47
Speaker
Um, I don't, I still don't love it. it It just feels, it feels focus grouped to me, right? Like, the date and i would much rather have either three straight rounds of higher seed hosts, single game elimination.
00:46:06
Speaker
If you do that, you've got to go to 120 minutes. You can't, can't do the penalties straight after 90. Oh yeah. um If you're going to do the best of three, it's, it should be best first to five and you only go to penalties in the last game.
00:46:19
Speaker
I don't understand why they're they're not doing it that way. It doesn't make sense to me. ah
00:46:29
Speaker
But, you know, they want I think you pointed out in the discord today that they want inventory of games for Apple. So that's that they're a they're a stakeholder. um You know, everybody wants a home playoff game to get that last gate of the year. So ownership is a stakeholder here. Right.
00:46:46
Speaker
ah but it feels that way, right? Like it doesn't feel, it feels like the competitive aspects of, of the format are like tertiary at best.
00:46:57
Speaker
Um, and that sucks. Like these are supposed to be the biggest games of the year. And and it just feels unbalanced to start it with best of three and then go single elimination. out That's, that's the thing, man. If you're going to do the best three, if Apple wants games, give them a bunch more and just go best of three the whole way through play a midweek game, you know, and yeah, the season's going to get longer.
00:47:19
Speaker
Yeah. My proposal... yeah but my ice my proposal For fixing just the best of three round. Again, I don't love the best of three round.
00:47:29
Speaker
I do. I will say I like it better than the aggregate goal. I do think one of the things that I've always been bothered by the areg aggregate goal series is that it's designed to remove home field advantage.
00:47:42
Speaker
Yeah. But in a playoff, the whole point is that you want these teams seated. You want there to be an advantage to being the higher seed. And yeah, And the aggregate goal thing totally undercuts that, especially if you're going home and home. So I don't like aggregate goal. I either think you go single elimination or you do something like this. And and if you are going to have best of three,
00:48:02
Speaker
The solution I'd like to see is that you get one point for a win, three points for a, or ah sorry, three points for a win, one point for a tie. You don't do shootouts in the first two games. If you tie game one, you get one point. You died game two, you get two points.
00:48:19
Speaker
You got to get to four though. And so game three, you can have a shootout and you get a full three points if you win that. Right. But so that way, if you tie game one and you win game two, you go through.
00:48:35
Speaker
If you both tie, you got to play game three. If you play game three, you, you know, whatever. Yeah, no, I'm, I'm a hundred percent with you, man. ah yeah I, I, I,
00:48:48
Speaker
it, I don't get why they want penalties earlier. um I don't either. I guess nobody likes penalties. i get maybe, maybe that's another focus group. Apparently focus groups, maybe like neutrals love penalties. Maybe, I don't know.
00:49:02
Speaker
Maybe. Yeah. I don't know. I, I just, uh, I, but I, when I'm as a neutral fan, personally, I hate penalties too. So I, uh, I don't think it's that, I don't know.
00:49:14
Speaker
I just, it, it, I don't want to go back to home and home with the exception of the one place it's never been, which is MLS cup where there shouldn't be a home field advantage, but that's never going to happen because they are still convinced that it's going to be the super bowl.
00:49:31
Speaker
um i mean, I get the optics of it. I, I, I get it, but in, and it's, they don't do it for anything anymore, right? Like champions league is no longer a home and home. um You wait for champions league. Hasn't been,
00:49:47
Speaker
for forever, but it's neutral side at least. So that's, that helps. But there's gotta be better than this. There's, there's gotta be a better way to do it than this. You could do home and home with the higher seed advancing instead of there being penalties would be an option maybe.
00:50:05
Speaker
um But I would, I would much rather do single elimination than what they've got now for sure.
00:50:12
Speaker
Yeah. Well, we fixed it for you, MLS. Just ah call us up. yeah Although it it does sound like they are in the process of revamping the whole competitive format of the league in addition to getting ready getting ready to move to the spring.
00:50:31
Speaker
Yeah. It does sound like they're that's fully... i mean, that that feels like a done deal to me. Yeah, just a matter of when, not if. Yeah. And then it will be, and they they're talking about other formats for the league.
00:50:46
Speaker
ah i kind of, I wouldn't mind a aperture cluster or kind of situation. It would be tough to balance it out though.
00:50:58
Speaker
Yeah. I suppose you could kind of do that. If you, if you, you could do an aperture closer with where you split the, the league and you just play.
00:51:09
Speaker
No, that'd be too many games. i don't I don't love that format for whatever reason. um They're never going to do what I think they should do, which is not have cross-conference play until playoffs. um I mean, i don't hate that.
00:51:24
Speaker
my My ideal format is double round robin within the conference.
Critique of MLS Playoff Format
00:51:28
Speaker
And then at the end, you've got however many teams from each conference make the playoffs. And you either do group stages, double round robin, something in the playoffs where it's like almost like a second season type of situation.
00:51:41
Speaker
And then you play a final. And I think that's the best combination of most fair and balanced teams. um and competitive, pro-competitive, while also having plenty of playoff games, making sure all the playoff teams get playoff games. um you know You give advantages to higher seeds, whatever it is. But yeah, that's that's what I'd love to see him do. It just doesn't seem super likely to me.
00:52:11
Speaker
there are like I know that the justification is still most likely, well, we want every team to get to host Messi. I mean, the Sounders only hosted Messi because of League Cup. Yeah, that's not... That's just not compelling to me anymore. Yeah, it's not compelling to me either.
00:52:29
Speaker
Yeah, so what's the reason? I mean, it cuts down on travel. um It cuts down on costs for the teams. Yeah, I don't i don't know that there is honestly a great... ah
00:52:43
Speaker
Yeah, I don't know that there's a great argument for cross-conference at this point, other than... yeah I suppose there's just not enough teams to split them up and do the double round Robin thing. Cause if they're at 30 right now, so you're talking about only 28 games.
00:53:01
Speaker
So they need to, they need to find six more games. I think you, if you do a playoff that is expanded, i mean the problem there, obviously I guess is that the other teams are going to lose what like three gates for the year.
00:53:17
Speaker
yeah,
00:53:19
Speaker
That is an issue, I suppose. But don't know. It's not my problem. They should make the playoffs if they want those extra gates or just bring in, you know, three more expansion teams. I don't know.
00:53:30
Speaker
There you go. Yeah. All right. Well, I think we should probably get out of here, ah Aaron. It's been wonderful as always. as always yeah ah Thank you to our sponsors, Full Pool Wines and Hacks and Ferments. Thank you to our subscribers.
00:53:48
Speaker
always thank you. Thank you to our subscribers. ah It looks like we are very close to getting the full text RSS feature up and running. If that's something that interests you, stay tuned.
00:54:01
Speaker
We also just put out a survey or we're going to, yeah, we just put out survey that we partnered up with 21 other independent soccer sites to create a survey that both asks you about your team as well as the the league as a whole. So be looking for that in your inbox.
00:54:23
Speaker
All that said, i am Jeremiah Shan signing off for Nos Adietes, which is part of the Sounder Art Podcast Network. catch you next time.
00:55:00
Speaker
Let's go at Sounders.