This week, Mark Leonard is joined by Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, and Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, to introduce ECFR’s Iran nuclear monitor [https://ecfr.eu/special/iran-nuclear-monitor/]. The new online tool, updated monthly, forecasts Iran’s nuclear programme after a year of Israeli and American strikes, and maps possible paths for future negotiations, inspections and escalation. 


Almost a year on from the first US and Israeli bombings of Iran, uncertainty is growing around the future of the country’s nuclear programme. With a fragile ceasefire in place, Mark, Kelsey and Ellie discuss the six scenarios outlined in the Iran nuclear monitor and whether Europe has a role in shaping negotiations. They also suggest that military strikes alone have not resolved the nuclear dilemma: instead, any durable agreement will likely depend on phased confidence-building, intrusive inspections and difficult political compromises on both sides. 


Together, they explore three critical questions shaping the future of peace negotiations: What will happen to Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium? Can Tehran and Washington overcome disagreements over uranium enrichment and the duration of a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear activities? And how can international inspectors rebuild monitoring after nearly a year without full access to Iran’s nuclear sites? 


The link to the Iran nuclear monitor could be reached here [https://ecfr.eu/special/iran-nuclear-monitor/?video=how-to-use].   

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Iran nuclear monitor: Month by month

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Curtis Yarvin, American blogger and political thinker, to talk about the ideas reshaping parts of the American right and Silicon Valley. Known for his critiques of liberal democracy, bureaucracy and what he calls “the cathedral”, Yarvin reflects on his intellectual journey from libertarianism to monarchism and explains why some of his arguments have an audience among tech figures and Trump supporters. 


Together Mark and Curtis explore the growing alliance between parts of Silicon Valley and MAGA, and why he believes modern governments are too procedural and inefficient to cope with technological and political change. From AI and automation to the future of human labour, he argues that the 21st century will force societies to rethink the purpose of government and the structure of the economy itself. 


As debates around democracy, technology and elite power intensify, this episode asks: why are more people losing faith in liberal democratic institutions? And can modern governments function effectively in an age of technological transformation? 


Bookshelf  

The Machiavellians: Defenders of Freedom [https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Machiavellians-Defenders-Freedom-James-Burnham/dp/1839013958] by James Burnham  

Latter-Day Pamphlets [https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1140/1140-h/1140-h.htm] by Thomas Carlyle  

Popular Government [https://www.amazon.com/Popular-Government-Henry-Sumner-Maine/dp/0913966150] by Henry Maine 

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The future of liberalism

This week, Mark Leonard is joined by David Runciman, British political theorist and philosopher, to explore whether today’s sense of crisis really marks the end of democracy—or something more complex. As the global order fragments, Runciman argues that democracy itself is not disappearing, but the forces shaping the world no longer fit the model that worked for the past 50 years.


From shifting demographics and rising inequality, to a transforming technological landscape, together Mark and David explore why systems that once seemed stable are now under strain. In a world which is both more and less democratic, liberal states face pressure from within and without.


Rather than predicting collapse, the discussion asks how democracies can evolve. What needs to change and what happens if it doesn’t?


Bookshelf

Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse by Luke Kemp [https://www.amazon.de/Goliaths-Curse-History-Societal-Collapse/dp/0241741246]



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Rethinking democracy

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Ayşe Zarakol, professor of international relations at Cambridge University, to explore whether today’s global crises signal disorder or a deeper shift toward “unorder,” where shared rules and assumptions are no longer relevant. 


Drawing on historical parallels—from the interwar period to the upheavals of the 17th century—Zarakol suggests that this may be the start of a longer era of fragmentation. Together, they examine what this means for Europe, from letting go of old ways of thinking to redefining its role in a more unpredictable world. 


Rather than restoring a fading order, the focus shifts to a more urgent scenario: what is worth preserving and how can Europe adapt to chaos to survive? 


This podcast episode was recorded on 26th of February. 

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The Age of Unorder

This week in London, Mark Leonard introduced his new book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail and reflected on what it means to navigate a world in which old assumptions about rules-based order, power and international cooperation no longer hold.


ECFR’s new weekly accompaniment podcast series “Surviving Chaos” will introduce the most interesting and controversial thinkers to explain the current period. The first episode brings together a conversation between Mark and Carl Bildt, former prime minister and former foreign minister of Sweden; Ivan Krastev, chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies; and Helle Thorning-Schmidt, former prime minister of Denmark, moderated by Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator at the Financial Times.


Opening the discussion, EU ambassador to the UK Pedro Serrano highlighted the importance of a strong and united Europe in defending peace, prosperity and democratic values, before the panel explored how policymakers can move from rigid grand strategies to more “artisan” approaches to power. They also considered whether the current moment represents a temporary crisis or a deeper rupture—and the impact on Europe’s security, economic model and political identity.

From the future of the transatlantic relationship to the war in Ukraine, to AI surveillance and the Middle East, the discussion examined how global instability is impacting the choices facing European decision-makers. Drawing on Mark’s argument that the world is in an age of “unorder”, the speakers discussed the types of political imagination, resilience and practical action Europeans will need. The crucial question: How can Europe navigate chaos?


Mark Leonard’s book Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail is now available in all bookstores and online [https://www.amazon.com/Surviving-Chaos-Geopolitics-When-Rules/dp/1509575227].


This episode will also be published on the EEAS website [https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/united-kingdom_en?s=3225].

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Surviving Chaos

This week, Mark Leonard speaks with Zsuzsanna Szelényi, a Hungarian politician and foreign policy specialist, about the forces behind Hungary’s historic political shift and what comes next for both the country and Europe.


Together they explore how economic pressures, corruption scandals, and a newly mobilised electorate—especially younger voters—reshaped Hungary’s political landscape after 16 years. They also evaluate Magyar’s promises of reform, a reset with Europe and a more participatory role on key issues like Ukraine.


What explains Orbán’s defeat? Can Magyar deliver real democratic change? And what does Hungary’s new direction mean for Europe and Ukraine?


Bookshelf:

Works of Zadie Smith [https://www.google.com/search?q=zadie+smith&rlz=1C1GCEA_enDE1204DE1204&oq=zadie+smith&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBwgAEAAYjwIyBwgAEAAYjwIyDAgBEC4YQxiABBiKBTIHCAIQABiABDIHCAMQABiABDIHCAQQABiABDIHCAUQABiABDIHCAYQLhiABDIHCAcQABiABDIHCAgQLhiABDIHCAkQLhiABNIBCDE0NjdqMGo5qAIAsAIB&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8], Ruth Ozeki [https://www.google.com/search?q=ruth+ozeki&rlz=1C1GCEA_enDE1204DE1204&oq=Ruth+Ozeki&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqDwgAEAAYQxjjAhiABBiKBTIPCAAQABhDGOMCGIAEGIoFMgwIARAuGEMYgAQYigUyDAgCEAAYQxiABBiKBTIHCAMQLhiABDIHCAQQLhiABDIHCAUQLhiABDIHCAYQABiABDIHCAcQLhiABDIHCAgQLhiABDIHCAkQABiABNIBBzI1NGowajmoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8] and Sofi Oksanen [https://www.google.com/search?q=Sofi+Oksanen&sca_esv=b23efcb65468375a&rlz=1C1GCEA_enDE1204DE1204&ei=tprfaZOJIKKTxc8P5PvVyQY&biw=1280&bih=551&ved=0ahUKEwiTvO7zgvCTAxWiSfEDHeR9NWkQ4dUDCBE&uact=5&oq=Sofi+Oksanen&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiDFNvZmkgT2tzYW5lbjIFEC4YgAQyBRAuGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAAGIAEMgUQABiABDIFEAAYgAQyBRAuGIAEMgUQLhiABDIFEAAYgAQyFBAuGIAEGJcFGNwEGN4EGN8E2AEBSLEEUK8DWK8DcAF4AZABAJgBUqABUqoBATG4AQPIAQD4AQGYAgKgAl_CAgoQABiwAxjWBBhHmAMAiAYBkAYIugYGCAEQARgUkgcBMqAH9RKyBwExuAdcwgcHMC4xLjAuMcgHCoAIAA&sclient=gws-wiz-serp]


This podcast was recorded on April 13th, 2026.

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Hungary after Orbán

For the last few days, a set of pronouncements from the White House have filled the news regarding the war in Iran. President Donald Trump has gone from threatening to destroy an entire civiliszation , to negotiatinge a ceasefire between the Washington administration and Teheran, led by Pakistan.


In this week’s episodeThis week, Mark Leonard is joined by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş,  senior associate fellow at ECFR and research fellow at the Brookings Institution,. Toge tother, they discuss where we're at nowthe current state of play. What does the ceasefire mean and what it means  for the future of the Middle East and for the future of American foreign policy? How will it impact. They will also look at what it means for  Europe, and global security more generally? And will and whether Trump is going to make good on the threats that he has made at various different points of  his threat to withdrawing from NATO?.

This podcast was recorded on April 3rd, 2026.


Bookshelf:

Mother Mary Comes to Me [https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/224004055-mother-mary-comes-to-me] by Arundhati Roy

The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny [https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/212138/the-loneliness-of-sonia-and-sunny-by-kiran-desai/] by Kiran Desai

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Ceasefire in Iran

This week, Mark Leonard welcomes Szymon Kardaś, senior policy fellow in ECFR's European Power programme, to unpack how war in the Middle East is reshaping Europe’s energy landscape. While Europe is not heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports directly, disruptions—especially around Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz—are pushing up global prices and intensifying competition with Asian buyers, exposing Europe’s deeper structural vulnerabilities.


Together, Mark and Szymon explore the risk of renewed dependence on Russian energy, reliance on American LNG, and what this crisis reveals about Europe’s long-term energy strategy. As the conflict continues, the pressure is growing for Europe to accelerate its transition towards renewables and greater energy resilience. 


How exposed is Europe to the global energy fallout? What role does Qatar play in the current gas crisis? Could Europe return to Russian energy imports under pressure? And what policies are needed to reduce Europe’s long-term energy dependence?  


Bookshelf Recommendation 

Grzegorz Braun Gram vabank by Tomasz Sommer 


This podcast was recorded on April 1st 2026. 

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What the Iran war means for Europe’s energy

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Kobzova, co-director of ECFR’s European Security programme and senior policy fellow, to discuss how the war in Iran is reshaping Ukraine’s war effort. What began as cautious optimism in Kyiv has turned into concern, as American military resources—especially air-defence systems—are redirected to the Middle East, leaving Ukraine increasingly exposed to Russian attacks.


Mark and Jana also explore the broader geopolitical fallout: stalled diplomacy, rising oil prices benefiting Russia and growing divisions within Europe that risk weakening support for Ukraine at a critical moment. The longer the Iran war continues, the more difficult Ukraine’s position becomes.

What does the Iran war mean for Ukraine’s military position? How is US support being affected? Why does the conflict benefit Russia economically? And can Europe maintain a united stance on Ukraine?


Bookshelf Recommendation

Russia in 1839 by Astolphe de Custine


This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2026.

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What the Iran war means for Ukraine

Mark Leonard welcomes Piotr Buras, Carla Hobbs, Camille Lons, Jana Puglierin and Arturo Varvelli and to discuss how Europe is responding to the war in Iran.


This week Mark Leonard records live from ECFR’s all-staff retreat in Sofia, bringing together colleagues from across the continent to unpack European reactions to the escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. While some leaders have taken a firm stance against the war, others have shifted position and divisions are emerging across Europe.


Why has Spain taken such a clear line against the conflict? How is Germany balancing its relationship with the US, Israel and Ukraine? What role is France seeking to play as a military and diplomatic actor? And how are countries like Italy and Poland navigating domestic pressures alongside their transatlantic ties?


This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026.

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Europe, Trump and the war in Iran

Weekly podcast on the events, policies and ideas that will shape the world. World in 30 minutes is curated by Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), and features top-level speakers from across the EU and beyond to debate and discuss Europe’s role in the world. It was awarded “Best podcasts on EU politics” by PolicyLab in 2019. Member of the EuroPod network.

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