Today’s clip is from episode 140 [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/140-nfl-analytics-teaching-bayesian-stats-ron-yurko] of the podcast, with Ron Yurko.

Alex and Ron discuss the challenges of model deployment, and the complexities of modeling player contributions in team sports like soccer and football.

They emphasize the importance of understanding replacement levels, the Going Deep framework in football analytics, and the need for proper modeling of expected points.

Additionally, they share insights on teaching Bayesian modeling to students and the difficulties they face in grasping the concepts of model writing and application.

Get the full discussion here [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/140-nfl-analytics-teaching-bayesian-stats-ron-yurko].

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Transcript

This is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch [http://twitter.com/LearnBayesStats] if you're willing to correct them.

BITESIZE | How to Think Causally About Your Models?

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs [https://www.pymc-labs.io/], the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call [https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf], or get in touch [alex.andorra@pymc-labs.io]!

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Takeaways:

 * Teaching students to write out their own models is crucial.
 * Developing a sports analytics portfolio is essential for aspiring analysts.
 * Modeling expectations in sports analytics can be misleading.
 * Tracking data can significantly improve player performance models.
 * Ron encourages students to engage in active learning through projects.
 * The importance of understanding the dependency structure in data is vital.
 * Ron aims to integrate more diverse sports analytics topics into his teaching.


Chapters:

03:51 The Journey into Sports Analytics

15:20 The Evolution of Bayesian Statistics in Sports

26:01 Innovations in NFL WAR Modeling

39:23 Causal Modeling in Sports Analytics

46:29 Defining Replacement Levels in Sports

48:26 The Going Deep Framework and Big Data in Football

52:47 Modeling Expectations in Football Data

55:40 Teaching Statistical Concepts in Sports Analytics

01:01:54 The Importance of Model Building in Education

01:04:46 Statistical Thinking in Sports Analytics

01:10:55 Innovative Research in Player Movement

01:15:47 Exploring Data Needs in American Football

01:18:43 Building a Sports Analytics Portfolio

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Maso

#140 NFL Analytics & Teaching Bayesian Stats, with Ron Yurko

Today’s clip is from episode 139 [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/139-efficient-bayesian-optimization-pytorch-max-balandat] of the podcast, with with Max Balandat.

Alex and Max discuss the integration of BoTorch with PyTorch, exploring its applications in Bayesian optimization and Gaussian processes. They highlight the advantages of using GPyTorch for structured matrices and the flexibility it offers for research.

The discussion also covers the motivations behind building BoTorch, the importance of open-source culture at Meta, and the role of PyTorch in modern machine learning.

Get the full discussion here [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/139-efficient-bayesian-optimization-pytorch-max-balandat].

Attend Alex's tutorial at PyData Berlin: A Beginner's Guide to State Space Modeling  [https://cfp.pydata.org/berlin2025/talk/GRZ3RG/]

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Transcript

This is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch [http://twitter.com/LearnBayesStats] if you're willing to correct them.

BITESIZE | Is Bayesian Optimization the Answer?

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs [https://www.pymc-labs.io/], the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call [https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf], or get in touch [alex.andorra@pymc-labs.io]!

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Takeaways:

 * BoTorch is designed for researchers who want flexibility in Bayesian optimization.
 * The integration of BoTorch with PyTorch allows for differentiable programming.
 * Scalability at Meta involves careful software engineering practices and testing.
 * Open-source contributions enhance the development and community engagement of BoTorch.
 * LLMs can help incorporate human knowledge into optimization processes.
 * Max emphasizes the importance of clear communication of uncertainty to stakeholders.
 * The role of a researcher in industry is often more application-focused than in academia.
 * Max's team at Meta works on adaptive experimentation and Bayesian optimization.


Chapters:

08:51 Understanding BoTorch

12:12 Use Cases and Flexibility of BoTorch

15:02 Integration with PyTorch and GPyTorch

17:57 Practical Applications of BoTorch

20:50 Open Source Culture at Meta and BoTorch's Development

43:10 The Power of Open Source Collaboration

47:49 Scalability Challenges at Meta

51:02 Balancing Depth and Breadth in Problem Solving

55:08 Communicating Uncertainty to Stakeholders

01:00:53 Learning from Missteps in Research

01:05:06 Integrating External Contributions into BoTorch

01:08:00 The Future of Optimization with LLMs

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabri

#139 Efficient Bayesian Optimization in PyTorch, with Max Balandat

Today’s clip is from episode 138 [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/138-quantifying-uncertainty-bayesian-deep-learning] of the podcast, with Mélodie Monod, François-Xavier Briol and Yingzhen Li.

During this live show at Imperial College London, Alex and his guests delve into the complexities and advancements in Bayesian deep learning, focusing on uncertainty quantification, the integration of machine learning tools, and the challenges faced in simulation-based inference.

The speakers discuss their current projects, the evolution of Bayesian models, and the need for better computational tools in the field.

Get the full discussion here [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/138-quantifying-uncertainty-bayesian-deep-learning].

Attend Alex's tutorial at PyData Berlin: A Beginner's Guide to State Space Modeling  [https://cfp.pydata.org/berlin2025/talk/GRZ3RG/]

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Transcript

This is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch [http://twitter.com/LearnBayesStats] if you're willing to correct them.

BITESIZE | What's Missing in Bayesian Deep Learning?

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs [https://www.pymc-labs.io/], the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call [https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf], or get in touch [alex.andorra@pymc-labs.io]!

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Takeaways:

 * Bayesian deep learning is a growing field with many challenges.
 * Current research focuses on applying Bayesian methods to neural networks.
 * Diffusion methods are emerging as a new approach for uncertainty quantification.
 * The integration of machine learning tools into Bayesian models is a key area of research.
 * The complexity of Bayesian neural networks poses significant computational challenges.
 * Future research will focus on improving methods for uncertainty quantification. Generalized Bayesian inference offers a more robust approach to uncertainty.
 * Uncertainty quantification is crucial in fields like medicine and epidemiology.
 * Detecting out-of-distribution examples is essential for model reliability.
 * Exploration-exploitation trade-off is vital in reinforcement learning.
 * Marginal likelihood can be misleading for model selection.
 * The integration of Bayesian methods in LLMs presents unique challenges.


Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to Bayesian Deep Learning

03:12 Panelist Introductions and Backgrounds

10:37 Current Research and Challenges in Bayesian Deep Learning

18:04 Contrasting Approaches: Bayesian vs. Machine Learning

26:09 Tools and Techniques for Bayesian Deep Learning

31:18 Innovative Methods in Uncertainty Quantification

36:23 Generalized Bayesian Inference and Its Implications

41:38 Robust Bayesian Inference and Gaussian Processes

44:24 Software Development in Bayesian Statistics

46:51 Understanding Uncertainty in Language Models

50:03 Hallucinations in Language Models

53:48 Bayesian Neural Networks vs Traditional Neural Networks

58:00 Challenges with Likelihood Assumptions

01:01:22 Practical Applications of Uncertainty Quantification

01:04:33 Meta Decision-Making with Uncertainty

01:06:50 Exploring Bayesian Priors in Neural Networks

01:09:17 Model Complexity and Data Signal

01:12:10 Marginal Likelihood and Model Selection

01:15:03 Implementing Bayesian Methods in LLMs

01:19:21 Out-of-Distribution Detection in LLMs

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwe

#138 Quantifying Uncertainty in Bayesian Deep Learning, Live from Imperial College London

Today’s clip is from episode 137 [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/137-causal-ai-generative-models-robert-ness] of the podcast, with Robert Ness.

Alex and Robert discuss the intersection of causal inference and deep learning, emphasizing the importance of understanding causal concepts in statistical modeling.

The discussion also covers the evolution of probabilistic machine learning, the role of inductive biases, and the potential of large language models in causal analysis, highlighting their ability to translate natural language into formal causal queries.

Get the full conversation here [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/136-bayesian-inference-at-scale-unveiling-inla-haavard-rue-janet-van-niekerk].

Attend Alex's tutorial at PyData Berlin: A Beginner's Guide to State Space Modeling  [https://cfp.pydata.org/berlin2025/talk/GRZ3RG/]

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Transcript

This is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch [http://twitter.com/LearnBayesStats] if you're willing to correct them.

BITESIZE | Practical Applications of Causal AI with LLMs, with Robert Ness

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs [https://www.pymc-labs.io/], the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call [https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf], or get in touch [alex.andorra@pymc-labs.io]!

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Takeaways:

 * Causal assumptions are crucial for statistical modeling.
 * Deep learning can be integrated with causal models.
 * Statistical rigor is essential in evaluating LLMs.
 * Causal representation learning is a growing field.
 * Inductive biases in AI should match key mechanisms.
 * Causal AI can improve decision-making processes.
 * The future of AI lies in understanding causal relationships.


Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to Causal AI and Its Importance

16:34 The Journey to Writing Causal AI

28:05 Integrating Graphical Causality with Deep Learning

40:10 The Evolution of Probabilistic Machine Learning

44:34 Practical Applications of Causal AI with LLMs

49:48 Exploring Multimodal Models and Causality

56:15 Tools and Frameworks for Causal AI

01:03:19 Statistical Rigor in Evaluating LLMs

01:12:22 Causal Thinking in Real-World Deployments

01:19:52 Trade-offs in Generative Causal Models

01:25:14 Future of Causal Generative Modeling

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Scherrer, Zwelithini Tunyiswa, Bertrand Wilden, James Thompson, Stephen Oates, Gian Luca Di Tanna, Jack Wells, Matthew Maldonado, Ian Costley, Ally Salim, Larry Gill, Ian Moran, Paul Oreto, Colin Caprani, Colin Carroll, Nathaniel Burbank, Michael Osthege, Rémi Louf, Clive Edelsten, Henri Wallen, Hugo Botha, Vinh Nguyen, Marcin Elantkowski, Adam C. Smith, Will Kurt, Andrew Moskowitz, Hector Munoz, Marco Gorelli, Simon Kessell, Bradley Rode, Patrick Kelley, Rick Anderson, Casper de Bruin, Philippe Labonde, Michael Hankin, Cameron Smith, Tomáš Frýda, Ryan Wesslen, Andreas Netti, Riley King, Yoshiyuki Hamajima, Sven De Maeyer, Michael DeCrescenzo, Fergal M, Mason Yahr, Naoya Kanai, Aubrey Clayton, Jeannine Sue, Omri Har Shemesh, Scott Anthony Robson, Robert Yolken, Or Duek, Pavel Dusek, Paul Cox, Andreas Kröpelin, Raphaël R, Nicolas Rode, Gabriel Stechschulte, Arkady, Kurt TeKolste, Marcus Nölke, Maggi Mackintosh, Grant Pezzo

#137 Causal AI & Generative Models, with Robert Ness

Today’s clip is from episode 136 [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/136-bayesian-inference-at-scale-unveiling-inla-haavard-rue-janet-van-niekerk] of the podcast, with Haavard Rue & Janet van Niekerk.

Alex, Haavard and Janet explore the world of Bayesian inference with INLA, a fast and deterministic method that revolutionizes how we handle large datasets and complex models.

Discover the power of INLA, and why it can make your models go much faster! Get the full conversation here [https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/136-bayesian-inference-at-scale-unveiling-inla-haavard-rue-janet-van-niekerk].

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Transcript

This is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch [http://twitter.com/LearnBayesStats] if you're willing to correct them.

BITESIZE | How to Make Your Models Faster, with Haavard Rue & Janet van Niekerk

Proudly sponsored by PyMC Labs [https://www.pymc-labs.io/], the Bayesian Consultancy. Book a call [https://calendar.google.com/calendar/appointments/schedules/AcZssZ1nOI_SElJzSiQ2sXBDiaW9w98ErjnHVzmHcSilYNWeXxJgV870NGuWZUGo3W-8-gDG8jIXQhBf], or get in touch [alex.andorra@pymc-labs.io]!

 * Intro to Bayes Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/503302] (first 2 lessons free)
 * Advanced Regression Course [https://topmate.io/alex_andorra/1011122] (first 2 lessons free)


Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work [https://bababrinkman.com/]!

Visit our Patreon page [https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats] to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)

Takeaways:

 * INLA is a fast, deterministic method for Bayesian inference.
 * INLA is particularly useful for large datasets and complex models.
 * The R INLA package is widely used for implementing INLA methodology.
 * INLA has been applied in various fields, including epidemiology and air quality control.
 * Computational challenges in INLA are minimal compared to MCMC methods.
 * The Smart Gradient method enhances the efficiency of INLA.
 * INLA can handle various likelihoods, not just Gaussian.
 * SPDs allow for more efficient computations in spatial modeling.
 * The new INLA methodology scales better for large datasets, especially in medical imaging.
 * Priors in Bayesian models can significantly impact the results and should be chosen carefully.
 * Penalized complexity priors (PC priors) help prevent overfitting in models.
 * Understanding the underlying mathematics of priors is crucial for effective modeling.
 * The integration of GPUs in computational methods is a key future direction for INLA.
 * The development of new sparse solvers is essential for handling larger models efficiently.


Chapters:

06:06 Understanding INLA: A Comparison with MCMC

08:46 Applications of INLA in Real-World Scenarios

11:58 Latent Gaussian Models and Their Importance

15:12 Impactful Applications of INLA in Health and Environment

18:09 Computational Challenges and Solutions in INLA

21:06 Stochastic Partial Differential Equations in Spatial Modeling

23:55 Future Directions and Innovations in INLA

39:51 Exploring Stochastic Differential Equations

43:02 Advancements in INLA Methodology

50:40 Getting Started with INLA

56:25 Understanding Priors in Bayesian Models

Thank you to my Patrons for making this episode possible!

Yusuke Saito, Avi Bryant, Ero Carrera, Giuliano Cruz, James Wade, Tradd Salvo, William Benton, James Ahloy, Robin Taylor,, Chad Sc

#136 Bayesian Inference at Scale: Unveiling INLA, with Haavard Rue & Janet van Niekerk

Are you a researcher or data scientist / analyst / ninja? Do you want to learn
Bayesian inference, stay up to date or simply want to understand what Bayesian
inference is? Then this podcast is for you! You'll hear from researchers and
practitioners of all fields about how they use Bayesian statistics, and how in
turn YOU can apply these methods in your modeling workflow. When I started
learning Bayesian methods, I really wished there were a podcast out there that
could introduce me to the methods, the projects and the people who make all that
possible. So I created "Learning Bayesian Statistics", where you'll get to hear
how Bayesian statistics are used to detect black matter in outer space, forecast
elections or understand how diseases spread and can ultimately be stopped. But
this show is not only about successes -- it's also about failures, because
that's how we learn best. So you'll often hear the guests talking about what
*didn't* work in their projects, why, and how they overcame these challenges.
Because, in the end, we're all lifelong learners! My name is Alex Andorra by the
way, and I live in Paris. By day, I'm a data scientist and modeler at the
https://www.pymc-labs.io/ (PyMC Labs) consultancy. By night, I don't (yet) fight
crime, but I'm an open-source enthusiast and core contributor to the python
packages https://docs.pymc.io/ (PyMC) and https://arviz-devs.github.io/arviz/
(ArviZ). I also love https://www.pollsposition.com/ (election forecasting) and,
most importantly, Nutella. But I don't like talking about it – I prefer eating
it. So, whether you want to learn Bayesian statistics or hear about the latest
libraries, books and applications, this podcast is for you -- just subscribe!
You can also support the show and https://www.patreon.com/learnbayesstats
(unlock exclusive Bayesian swag on Patreon)! This podcast uses the following
third-party services for analysis: Podcorn - https://podcorn.com/privacy

Alexandre ANDORRA

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