Transcript
Speaker: Hello and welcome to s Sips and Substance, where we distill politics down to its essence. I'm Justin, we have Jonathan over here. Hello. And we're back. Hopefully you noticed we were gone. hopefully i mean ah All three of our fans, hopefully you noticed that we're gone. But yeah, we it's been an interesting summer.
Speaker: Justin has been moving. um I've been busy with some stuff. And then the semester started. So all kinds of stuff going on. um But we wanted to talk about the the shutdown because it's an an interesting issue to us that doesn't necessarily have to be just partisan. aha And because we're I think we're both tired of that.
Speaker: Yeah. And honestly, that's one of the reasons why we haven't been recording as much as we used to. You know, on one hand, there just isn't a lot of demand for political discussion during the summertime.
Speaker: And obviously the cadence of the show will increase as we get closer to election season. But paying attention is just really exhausting. And we we don't want to be a news program, right, where we discuss topics on a weekly basis, because at the end of the day, a lot of these topics are just rehashes of the same theme over and over again.
Speaker: So, for instance, You know James Comey was recently indicted on charges that are, well, let's just say that there have been resignations and the charges are basically bullshit.
Speaker: Let's say thin. Very, very thin. But we've already discussed DOJ corruption back when we i talked about Eric Adams. ah We could talk about ICE enforcement. I think the thing that stands out to me is we have people running around in American cities with guns and masks, yanking people off the street.
Speaker: whatever you think about immigration or not, that seems rather anti-un-American, the approach. But again, we talked about this before, too. We talked about this was coming.
Speaker: Right. Anybody who's surprised by any of this um other than maybe the speed. Right. was hasn't been paying attention and certainly wasn't paying attention before the election. um So it wasn't listening to us because we warned about this from the start. And and this is this is to be expected.
Speaker: um And every time we're hey, look what happened today. Neither one of us is like, wow, I can't believe this happened today. Yeah. And I'm sure you would like to have a weekly RFK rant, especially over this Tylenol thing. But again,
Speaker: Are we adding any value by discussing these things that everyone else is already discussing? We don't think so. So when it comes to the future of the show, i already mentioned before that the cadence is going to increase as election season heats up.
Speaker: But we want to focus on undercover topics and any sort of shifts in electoral patterns or strategies from either the Republicans or the Democrats. so So, for example, ah Jonathan and I, we have really spirited discussions regarding the Supreme Court, and we will definitely talk about the Supreme Court in the future. There's going to be a lot of talk about unitary executive theory, also known as how much power does the president have and how much power should the president have.
Speaker: And we disagree on that. I think also um just for my I think both of us also have issues that are outside of just domestic politics that I think are useful to visit. For example, one thing that I want to talk about at some point in length is what's going on with drone warfare.
Speaker: mean, it's the the the war in Ukraine is really showing us that, in my opinion, anyway, there is another one that the most recent revolution of military affairs going on with with drone warfare and how well or poorly we adapt to that is going to be fairly significant um going forward and for all of our international relations issues.
Speaker: So having said all that, what do we have to drink today? Having said all that, we certainly need a beer. And I think I have a and and really, really appropriate beer. I have lunch from Maine Beer Company because Basically, so far, Trump and the GOP are eating the the Democrats lunch.
Speaker: And so we're going to talk about today what they can't what but maybe they can do and should do or what they're trying to do and if we think going be effective. But also, the guy who owns Maine Beer Company is running against Susan Collins for Senate.
Speaker: So little bit of support for the guy running against Susan Collins. ah He's running in the Democratic Party for Senate and drinking an appropriate beer. And it's also really good. but It's named after a whale they spotted years ago that had like a bite out of one of her fins.
Speaker: um I think was, I can't remember here. I think it her. um But any case, it's a New England IPA, but it's not the typical New England IPA you think of when you think of something like Hetty Topper, which you've had on before.
Speaker: This is less hazy. It's more of a a traditional kind of like a West Coast IPA. Not very sweet, a little dank, a little bitter. um Right up my alley, this is my kind of IPA. and I think Maine Beer Company does some really good stuff.
Speaker: If they have it by you, by all means, seek it out. Good stuff. And you're supporting the guy who's running against ah Susan Collins.
Speaker: All right, let's jump right into shutdown politics. So the way I want to structure this is I want to talk about what's the political landscape now and why we're having a shutdown and what's the strategy for both sides and how this is going to end.
Speaker: What is the exit strategy? Because we can't get the government shut down forever. we could. we probably won't. So, On October 1st, funding is going to lapse for most government agencies.
Speaker: So what's at stake? Well, mandatory spending like Social Security and Medicare, those are going to be unaffected. But we are going to have plenty of furloughed workers. And the essential workers are going to have to work without pay.
Speaker: Now, I think Trump is adding something to the mix where he just wants to fire the workers once funding runs out. So that's something to keep in mind. And, you know shutdowns are unpopular. And one of the goals in any shutdown strategy is to avoid blame.
Speaker: You don't want to be the one who, quote, caused the shutdown. think that calculus is something, though, that we should probably look at right at the front. Shutdowns traditionally are unpopular. And traditionally, whoever gets blamed suffers at the polls later on.
Speaker: um So that could be part of both sides' goals. Blame the other side for a shutdown. right um But it this this isn't a normal situation. just normal occurring normally occurring politics and actions by the federal government, actions by the president.
Speaker: right So I think, at least in my opinion, you can make an argument, and the Democrats should be, and I think they're trying to, um that this what's going on requires a shutdown.
Speaker: if If they really want to win, that's what they need to say. They need the the political battle of it. They need to do something like, you know what? We are shutting it down, not because we have this policy disagreement. We're shutting it down because this government is just off the rails and we need to do something.
Speaker: um If they do that, then maybe they can change that calculus for shutdowns always being unpopular. Because that, that I think, is really the Democrats' goal here to make this a popular shutdown.
Speaker: That's a hard goal, ah very hard goal to reach. But if they can, then i think that will derive derive for them the political benefits they're looking for. Right. And i don't think the...
Speaker: senators and a lot of the members in the House of Representatives, I don't think they want a shutdown, right? But the Democratic rank and file voters, they want the Democrats to do something, right?
Speaker: They feel they are getting steamrolled. And whenever you have an opportunity for leverage, you need to do something and stand up for whatever you believe in. And I think that's the impetus for this government shutdown.
Speaker: So I have a question about that, though. why Why do you think that the average senator and congressperson don't want to shut down? What's in it for them to keep going along with business as usual? So I think there's definitely a split in the Democratic Party between institutionalists and people who feel like this is not normal. So someone who feels like it's not normal is Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, whereas someone who's more of the institutionalist brand would be Amy Klobuchar, who just wants to focus on legislating and helping people.
Speaker: And she's not really looking at the big picture. At least that's what the perception is. Okay, but here would be my question to her. How much legislating are you doing? And my answer would be, it's obviously none.
Speaker: How many people are you helping? Well, also none. What are the prospects for you to pass any legislation and help people if the government doesn't shut down? See, I don't see an upside for Democrats to cooperate at this point in time.
Speaker: They're not getting anything. um Trump isn't even meeting with them to talk about anything. I just... From the political, because I think if it's actually probably worth stepping back and then talking about why the Democrats are doing this overall.
Speaker: And to me, I hope they're only doing it with an eye towards the 2026 midterm elections. Right. Everything that that's like their one should be their one goal right now, because they're not able to do any legislating.
Speaker: They're not able to able to do any bargaining. Right. Trump has come out and said, don't even bother talking to the Democrats. We'll do it on our own. Right. So. so I don't see any benefit in going along because I don't see any realist. that There hasn't been any Democratic input into legislation so far.
Speaker: And I don't see any coming anytime soon. Do you? i mean, I think there might be when it comes to, say, continuing resolutions, you know, very, very minor things. but You're not going to get any sort of major program.
Speaker: And when you go back to sort of the major pieces of of legislation, like the one big, beautiful bill. Yeah, the Democrats were completely shut out from that. But I think there are some small things, you know, trimming around the edges that Democrats could have some input. And, you know, those that trimming around the edges does have an impact on people.
Speaker: It's just not a particularly sexy topic. And I don't think it advances the goal of... No, in that houses it doesn't help with 2026. You're right about that. And that's kind of the issue right here, right?
Speaker: When you are going against a trifecta, your options are very, very limited. And so the goal has to be capturing the House at a minimum, and hopefully you can make some gains in the Senate.
Speaker: So the GOP, on the other other hand, it's interesting because I think what they want is to make it seem like ah this is business as usual. they want to make They want to normalize Trump's behavior and the corresponding legislation that they passed as, ah, you know, how is this any different than 2004, 1996, what have you?
Speaker: And if you can frame it that the Democrats are the ones who are, quote, breaking norms, i think that's a a good win for them. Sure, if they can. i i Well, again, it requires the Democrats to be effective, and they've had a mixed bag on that.
Speaker: But I would think that that is something that it's hard to reach a lot of the people. If you look at you know opinion polls, for example, Trump's approval rating is going way down pretty quickly.
Speaker: um yeah it's And i'm even among Trump supporters, especially I was reading an article about young Trump supporters, right? um The young trump young Trump voters were 92% in support of him as recently, I wanna say is June.
Speaker: And the thing that came out, a poll came out ah last month and that support dropped to 63%. Now, these are Trump voters. These are people that voted for Trump that are under 35 or something like that.
Speaker: So there's some vulnerability chair on the GOP side. This is where where the Republican or where the Democrats need to focus. Like, what can we do to make inroads with these people that voted for Trump?
Speaker: And then they're seeing, hey, we're not getting what we were told we were going to get it. We were going to get the economy isn't going through the roof for everybody. um You know, wars haven't, the you know, the wars haven't stopped in a day, right? All these things that they were promised that they voted on, especially the economic stuff, inflation was going to go down. There will be no more inflation.
Speaker: Hasn't happened. Right. um So these people are out there if the Democrats can figure out a way to appeal to them to be had. Whether they can do that or not is another story. I think both of us aren't particularly sanguine on those chances.
Speaker: Right. So let's talk about what the Democrats are trying to fight for. I think if you polled bunch of Democratic voters and Democratic politicians, you get a wide variety of most important issues.
Speaker: And, you know, there are some people, you know, as I said before, institutionalists who want to focus on things like health care. And then you have other people who want to take maximalist approach and be like, we don't want to fund anything.
Speaker: We're just done with this administration. Well, fortunately, and we've linked it in the show notes, The Economist has done a poll recently on which issues are most important to Americans. And it's not health care.
Speaker: And healthcare is not second. The most important issue to um to American voters right is economics still. and And it was something like 30 some percent. The second most important issue is civil rights stuff, freedom of speech, that kind of thing.
Speaker: And that seems to be on the upswing. um Again, not healthcare. care Healthcare care is the third most important issue. So this is where you and I differ on what I, for me, I'm more of the maximalist approach kind of person because I don't think there's going to be any compromise.
Speaker: So if you're just fighting for health care, all these people that voted for Trump but for economics, right, and the other people that are are worried, hey, wait, what is what's going on with this freedom of speech thing and all this stuff that's going on, you're not doing anything for that.
Speaker: All you're saying is we need to fight for economics. So I would push back a little bit because, yes, I think you're right, based on the polling, that health care isn't a particularly salient issue right now.
Speaker: But if health care premiums go up, that's immediately going to tie into economic issues, cost of living. Sure. And while- So people who are on Obamacare, sure.
Speaker: Right. And so let's let's talk about what the Democrats are asking for, because because I think that's important. They have decided that they want to, one, make the subsidies for the ACA exchanges permanent.
Speaker: And that affects about, let's say, 10 million people directly. In the grand scheme of things, that's kind of a small number. The Kaiser of Family Foundation They have some data and predictions suggesting that because the health insurance risk pool will shrink because people won't be able to afford the insurance, it's going to drive up premiums for everyone else.
Speaker: Now, how much that's going to be, I couldn't tell you. And I think that's sort of one of those things where you have to see it. But the Democrats have done a fairly decent job, at least on you know cable news and print media and podcasting.
Speaker: Basically, the folks who are plugged in, they are aware that some of these things are going to expire. And then that's when people are going to be hurt. So I think you could tie it back into the economic argument.
Speaker: And in our show notes, we listed several articles that talk about various strategies, ranging from the maximalist approach. you know Nate Silver wants the Democrats to focus on tariffs.
Speaker: Matt Iglesias agrees with the Schumer approach and wants to focus on healthcare. you know We'll see who's right at the end. But Right now, the Democrats are focused on health care and that's just the way it's going to be. Yeah.
Speaker: And the the problem that I think that poses for them, right, is that, again, the most important issue to people is economics. For people that voted for Trump because of economic reasons, which I think is a lot of the of the middle, the moderate undecided types.
Speaker: Right. um And they're not seeing what they wanted. to ignore that right now just seems like wasting an opportunity. And it's not saying you can't say, we want this and this. you know We want an economic thing.
Speaker: We want some sort of guarantee about civil rights. And we want um something done on health care. And the reason I think you could successfully add all three of those is because I don't think they're going to get what they want for health care anyway. right There's going to be no compromise on health care from the Republicans.
Speaker: um Trump, I believe Senator Thune called Trump and told him not to meet with the Democrats. So they didn't he canceled the meeting they had scheduled with the Democrats in order to bargain because they they're worried he'll actually strike a deal with them that will make them look weaker in going forward. they the the senate The Senate Republicans don't want a deal. They think that the republican the Democrats are going to back down.
Speaker: um which mean, if history is any guide, they often do. um But if you really think if you're really going to hold out for something, and and what would that would be? Well, get I'll get to in a second.
Speaker: But the idea is why not make it as beneficial for you as possible, knowing you're not going to get anything. so Tell people you're fighting for the things they care about, ah because they're not going to get this this these these Obamacare subsidies and the the Medicaid stuff brought back. It's just not going to happen. I can't see any scenario when that happens.
Speaker: um So if that's not going to happen, what could happen for the Democrats? The only thing that I think would actually help them politically is if the Senate got rid of the filibuster. That would be a shock to the system, and they could pass whatever they want, but but i think they I think Trump is priming him for that. He's telling people, don't bargain, we're going to go it alone. right Thune is already making steps to get rid of the filibuster for appointments.
Speaker: um And I don't see ah any outcome other than that unless the Democrats cave, because I don't see the Republicans caving. Yeah. so So before we talk about exit strategy, I do want to point out that there's the base issue, right? You're fighting for stuff that your base believes in, but then there's the ah swing voters slash, you know, people who aren't particularly plugged in. And I think those, there is overlap for sure, especially when it comes to cost of living.
Speaker: But I think you have to give something to your base here. Why can't you do both? You can, but then there's also the aspect of attention spans. You know, you and I discuss offline that there's probably two, maybe three main topics that you can focus on.
Speaker: The economy, civil rights and health care, those could be your top three. But there's a plethora of other issues that Democrats really, really care about that, you know, you're just not going to be able to talk about everything.
Speaker: It's impossible. I agree. with One of my issues is I hate the word plethora and we should never use it, but I'm not going to insist on that for getting rid of getting rid of ah the shutdown. But I would i would prefer a lot, or myriad, if you really want to show off your vocabulary. if People don't say that. Myriad is worse than plethora, in my opinion. But least nobody else says it every there Anyway, I won't go on go on too much of a tangent, but it's just a good example of things that you shouldn't care about that much about.
Speaker: It's not a die on this hill issue for me. And then there's also tangible concessions, which I think ACA subsidies is a tangible concession versus the principles. They're not going to get don't understand that, but...
Speaker: when you're discussing these things, there's the principle of it. Like, what are you fighting for? ah An abstract idea versus, hey, I am going to get something out of this deal. Tangible on on for the ah for the economy.
Speaker: Trump has to send these tariffs to Congress and we have to approve them. so I agree. That would be a tangible concession. And that would be... Why not do that too? You're not going to get that either, but at least you're showing people who are seeing their cost of living go up.
Speaker: And you're showing, say, farmers in Iowa, where the Senate seat might actually be in play, potentially, that, hey, you're willing to do something that Trump isn't doing. He's kind of screwing you with these tariffs. And because the Chinese are like, all right, we'll buy zero soybeans from you people.
Speaker: but that's That's the latest development. They're buying soybeans from Argentina and and Brazil like it's nobody's business and zero from us lately. um And Trump is talking about it. I mean, I can't but help but think this is a massive Ponzi scheme in play because he's like, well, we'll take tariffs here and the money from the tariffs will go to pay off the farmers.
Speaker: So then they won't worry about these things. And that it's just like, yeah but You could just get rid of the tariffs. You could do that, right? um And these things, thing it' juggling this stuff, it's it's hard to do. and And again, the farmers don't want to be paid not to farm. Generally, they'd like to farm.
Speaker: They want to be able to sell their goods. That's what why you do farming, right? Not to sit there and get subsidies, especially the smaller farms. I mean, if you're a large industrial farm and you don't care where the money comes from as long as the money comes from, but...
Speaker: but What are you going to do if you're a family farm and you can't sell your soybeans? Just hang out and then get paid money for not farming? it's just like It's a weird situation, which again, could be rectified by simply not having tariffs.
Speaker: But let's take the best case scenario here, where every tangible concession the Democrats get. How do you get around the fact that what Trump is doing is completely lawless?
Speaker: And then you have supported the administration in some way by funding it. Right. it's It's a really difficult situation to be in Well, one, I think we both know that's not happening.
Speaker: No, no, I know. I'm saying in the best case scenario, though. Again, that's why I don't think that just asking for health care is the best case is a good because in theory, I guess he could strike a deal on that.
Speaker: If you include the tariffs and you include some sort of provisions where we revisit this every so often to make sure that the government, the executive is staying lawful, something, anything like that.
Speaker: Right. You can make sure he won't agree. And I think the best case scenario for the Democrats is not that Republicans give in on the health care issue. I think the best case scenario is that they don't give in and demonstrate to swing voters that they're not interested in compromise and the Democrats can, I would think, run on that more successfully than, hey, we got them to compromise on healthcare because then we're making them look reasonable too, right? So why again? Which is what they want.
Speaker: Right. Republicans want to look reasonable. yeah If you're letting them look reasonable, then why would voters not vote for them again? Yeah. Yeah. so So I think that's a good transition to exit strategy.
Speaker: As we alluded to in the beginning, We said that the government can't be shut down forever. And I guess, you know, technically it could, but the probability of that happening is basically zero.
Speaker: So when is it time to throw in the towel and who will throw in the towel? but Well, I think, I mean, I think i was I was saying it kind of depends on the strategy, right? Like you're saying, best case scenario, they give you what you want. You're like, well, we got what we wanted.
Speaker: I guess we have to fund the government now. um That would be bad for Democrats, I really do think. um I really think if if they're going to make the most political gains towards 2026, twenty twenty six they need to force the Republicans to either capitulate, which they won't, but even if they did, capitulate in a broader sense.
Speaker: right theyre If you got them to capitulate on tariffs, health care, and civil liberties, that could be a huge win that you could sort of ride that wave into, but that's never going to happen.
Speaker: What's going to happen, I think, and is that eventually Trump is going to tell Thune to use the nuclear option, and he will, just because Trump tells him to. um And that's I think given the cards they have to play, the kind of the best so case scenario for the Democrats politically, while short term, it's not particularly good to look forward to because the Democrats, Republicans will then do whatever they want on a broader system, broader scale than they are now.
Speaker: And some may argue that the Republicans will do that anyway. But Republicans benefit from the filibuster way more than the Democrats. And so they know that eventually. I'm not sure that's the case anymore.
Speaker: Because I think that if you think about the Democrats benefited from the filibuster when Harry Reid got rid of it for regular judges. Sure. But then the Republicans went, boom, Supreme Court justices. And they got whoever they wanted, as ridiculous as the candidates are that they put forward.
Speaker: They got them all right. um And now with the balance of the Senate. Right. Given the red, how red some of the red states are, I think the likelihood of Democrats controlling the Senate is kind of slim.
Speaker: It's unlikely. mean So at least in the immediate future, Democrats are going to benefit much more from the filibuster than Republicans are. so You're right about that. I was talking more long term, like over the next 10 years sort of thing.
Speaker: Well, let's hope you're right. But who knows? Yeah. So it's interesting that you brought up the best case scenario for the Democrats, that being the Republicans own everything.
Speaker: The Republicans are forced to abolish the filibuster. And a lot of these old school institutionalists, the dinosaurs like Mitch McConnell and Chuck Grassley, you know they're creatures of the Senate. They like their norms and rules for the most part.
Speaker: And they will be put in a tough position where they have to overturn the filibuster, something that they've used to great effect over decades.
Speaker: I would guess but somebody like McConnell, though, understands the current math in the Senate and what it's going to be like for a while. And also, he's kind of sold out to Trump to begin with, right? Beginning with the impeachment trial.
Speaker: It's kind of a point of no return for him. He's become less and less vocal in his opposition to Trump as time goes on. I don't see him. Yeah, mean, he's on the way out. Yeah, I don't see him making a stand saying, no the filibuster must must remain.
Speaker: I'd be surprised. What they'll do, right? So they need they'll need 51 votes with J.D. Vance. right They will let three people vote against it. Right? Well, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and then one random person, maybe Mitch, will get to vote against the filibuster. And 51 will vote, or against getting rid of the filibuster. And 51 will vote to do it. And they'll do it. So we'll get the same song and dance and Tony show we'll get where Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski are concerned and worried and they don't like these norms. but So they'll vote against it. But hey, look, it passed anyway.
Speaker: Yeah, I mean, the Democrats under no circumstances should provide votes for abolishing the filibuster, even if they want it to, you know, maybe in some future world, they try and make Washington, D.C. a state or Puerto Rico state, whatever.
Speaker: They should not give a single vote for this. You know, they the the goal the Democrats has to be. to make the GOP own absolutely everything.
Speaker: Yes. The journey to get there is going to be brutal. It's sad that it's come to this, right? But I really think that they're forced into a corner. They don't have any options where they can say, hey, you know what? Let's call this off and let's let's compromise.
Speaker: Because Trump isn't interested in, he's told us he's not interested in compromise. So I don't need i don't see what what else the Democrats can do other than just say, all right, do whatever you want. I mean, Trump is going to try and make this as painful as possible because his goal is to keep the filibuster until they really, really, really need to get rid of it.
Speaker: And I think that they believe that the Democrats are going to blink. Just like how back when we were discussing Schumer's strategy, the the reason why the Democrats were in that position in March is because they thought the Republicans were going to blink.
Speaker: They thought the Republicans are going to be so incompetent that we're not going to be able to get the votes that they were going to be forced to compromise. But that didn't happen. i was ah yeah and i think both of i think both of us at the time said, that's probably not a very good bet.
Speaker: No, I think we said it was a good bet. And at the time, we said, you know what, because... their bluff got called, so to speak. We just said, yeah, you know what Schumer had to pull a plug because there was no strategy.
Speaker: He didn't. Exactly. He didn't have a strategy. He didn't have a well, what if they do this? What do we do? And he didn't have any of that. So he he couldn't have a shutdown then because he wasn't ready. Right. Hopefully he learned his lesson. Yeah, hopefully. And he's ready.
Speaker: um I'm not particularly thrilled. I and with their chances because of the issue they've chosen. Sure. health it's like It's such a niche issue.
Speaker: like How many of the people that are poor enough to be on Medicaid right and all and using the Obamacare subsidies are not voting for Democrats already?
Speaker: i think a lot of them. there's some ah lot? Yes, because the GOP has been able to get more votes from the lower middle class and poor people.
Speaker: Well, I suppose that's true. But if they take it away. They're voting for Republicans because of social issues. Yeah. So the dynamics of the electorate are changing. Is it the social issues or is it the economic issues? I don't know. It's probably both. Probably both.
Speaker: Yeah. But I mean, if again, to just cater to those people that are voting for Trump, right. sure It's just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If you want to try to win if there, if there's serious Trumpists, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Old poor people that are getting Medicaid, you're not getting them back, but you could get back the young people that are voting on economic issues.
Speaker: right You could get back good no middle-aged people that are voting on economic issues. You could get back people, young people, especially, that are worried about free speech and all this stuff. Some of them.
Speaker: But not when you say, issue is healthcare. It just really paints you into a box where I don't think there's a lot of electoral gain to be had there. And again, to me, that's what this should be all about.
Speaker: If you're not advancing your electoral chances as much as you can, you're not doing the right thing here. Right. I agree with that. were We're in agreement that the goal is to maximize the probability of you winning seats in 2026.
Speaker: So in the notes here, I came up with the best case scenario for the GOP if you had the adults running the show. So if you've removed Trump from the equation, which is obviously unrealistic, actually think that it makes sense for a shutdown to happen for a little bit.
Speaker: And then the Republicans say, you know what, we're going to give you an extension until 2026 after the election, the ACA exchange subsidies.
Speaker: Because the funny thing about the one big, beautiful bill with all those Medicaid cuts, they just kick the can down the road after the elections. So they're never going to face the consequences for the votes that they took.
Speaker: And I really do think that once people see what happens to the healthcare premiums, that's just going to take up a lot of space in terms of messaging and media and whatnot.
Speaker: So I think it is probably in the GOP's best interest to cave a little bit. but thats so And then it also it also allows them to legitimize Trump. That's what I was saying a few minutes ago, right? that yeah It would be great. It would be really beneficial for them to have some sort of deal.
Speaker: But... but I think that that kind of goes against Trump's and I think a lot of the GOP's election strategy, they're not, they still think, and they've been proven right a little bit, last time they were, that if just appealing to base issues, they'll drive enough people to the polls that they will still win, especially with the gerrymandering going on yeah Right. They don't think they need to compromise.
Speaker: If they thought they need to compromise, they would. Right. But, um but At this point, they don't think they need to. know you'll see and hear from a few select members of Congress.
Speaker: um like The one that's come to mind, there's a guy out in California. I can't remember which, a younger guy who's from a swing district. And when every time he's on CNN or whatever, he sounds eminently reasonable, right? Because he's from a swing district in California.
Speaker: And he's got to make sure that, you know, that He doesn't antagonize the swing voters in his swing district. um But most of the after with with all the gerrymandering that's going on, there are fewer and fewer few people in swing districts, both Republicans and Democrats.
Speaker: So the people that at least in in the the House that have an incentive to compromise are very, very few. Yeah. So I don't think that scenario is going to happen, but I think strategically it is probably the best case scenario for the Republicans.
Speaker: Plus it'll make it seem like the Democrats are getting a bad deal and it deflates the base of the Democratic Party. So that's kind of like the Mitch McConnell, like puppet strings strategy, but Hey, you know what? Trump is the one in charge.
Speaker: So that's probably not going to happen. And I mean, I think it also, you could play for the, I'll bet you the Democrats capitulate strategy. That's worked a lot in the past. Oh, yeah. And I think that's what's going to happen, too.
Speaker: Trump is going to make this as painful as possible. And, you know, you can already see in his tweets, he's saying that the Democrats want to fund transgender, this, illegal immigrant, that. you know, it's like...
Speaker: AI was trained on Fox News and Newsmax and all these other things. And boom, right there. And you know Trump, he has a megaphone. So even if you know the Democrats are right with their strategy, the implementation going to be really difficult for them just because of how...
Speaker: loud and dynamic the GOP is in terms of messaging and media? Well, yeah I think the media part is something I think we shouldn't overlook either. Fox News is going to be lined up behind whatever the administration says, and they'll be blowing that out of their airwaves all day long, every day.
Speaker: But we shouldn't underestimate you know the impact of the capitulation of a lot of these networks to Trump, right? CBS is moving more and more in a trump in a conservative direction.
Speaker: but They have Their owner is very conservative. They appointed a conservative ombudsman to overlook things. um The Washington Post is becoming more and more conservative. For whatever reason, Bezos thinks it's going to make him even more money, which I guess he really needs.
Speaker: um The CNN has become very conservative. become very much more receptive to conservatives than they were in the past. ABC has as well. um NBC is spinning off and MSNBC, so they're hoping not to to tick off the Trump administration as much.
Speaker: I mean, the number of news sources that are mainstream news sources that are willing to antagonize the government is shrinking. And so that's going to only help the GOP in their messaging.
Speaker: Yeah, it doesn't even have to be conservative leaning. It could just be sane washing, so to speak. That's that's a my favorite phrase, sane washing. And then you also can't discount the alternative forms of media, which are even more popular.
Speaker: So Twitter, podcasts, Facebook, what have you. yeah And yet again, Republicans seem to have an edge, right? um Obviously they have an edge on X and with Zuckerberg getting rid of all content moderation more or less on Facebook, they've got an edge on Facebook. um it's It's gonna be tough for for Democrats.
Speaker: We'll see where that leads. But yeah if my hope for them, despite as as painful as it might turn out to be is that they do hold on until the Republicans get rid of the filibuster.
Speaker: Anything short of that, just torpedo, I think, their chances in 2026. If they capitulate and let the Republicans do whatever they want, what case can they make to the voters for you should elect us, we're going to get in the way?
Speaker: Because you're not. You're just great getting out of the way. And so you mentioned that Trump's approval rating is way down, and that's true. But elections are choices.
Speaker: And if the Democrats and polling suggests this, if the Democrats are polling poorly on issues too, that can do two things. at One, it could just have people stay at home, which, you know, maybe that'll benefit the Democrats. Base turnout. Yeah. but the Democrats have good base turnout in off year elections and Republicans turn out for Trump.
Speaker: Right. Basically. um But yeah, it's, it's, It's hard to say, you know, what's what's going to work for them. um But that is why I think they need to try this, a strategy where they're trying to appeal to the issues that most people care about.
Speaker: yeah i but ah i I really do think that healthcare is underrated. It's their bread and butter issue, but there is no reason why they couldn't have added tariffs to. but And if I would argue that if that's actually their bread and butter issue, that explains a lot why they're having electoral problems.
Speaker: If your bread and butter issue is not economics, right you're kind of missing the the the thrust of what's going on in society. Or at the very least, linking them together. Yes, at the very least. but But to be just be like, healthcare... care I'm guessing, I mean, I'm like, what?
Speaker: And I'm guessing most people that are like, hey, and inflation hasn't gone away. Things are still expensive. my The economy doesn't feel great. And we have all these tariffs. Things are starting. So your big issue is healthcare care for poor people?
Speaker: i just don't see it. All right. so So I think that wraps it up. Basically, what it really boils down to 2026 and also elections coming we have some elections coming up you know the governor races in Virginia and New Jersey.
Speaker: The Republicans want to minimize their losses in 2026. They want to hang on to the governor's race in Virginia, which isn't going to happen, but they're competitive in New Jersey. So their goal is to make sure that the shutdown doesn't affect them as much and they can blame the Democrats.
Speaker: That could be a significant boost. And on the other side, the Democrats, they just have to do something. And whether it means firing up the base or fighting for something that benefits a massive majority of people in this country. should involve both.
Speaker: Yeah, it needs to involve both. So so we'll see what happens. you know As we said before, the Democrats have chosen healthcare as the issue and we're going see what happens.
Speaker: I'm not going to make predictions other than I think the Democrats will probably capitulate how it's going to happen. I don't know. what Once the pieces start moving and the pain is felt, things are going to shift rapidly.
Speaker: So we'll see what happens. One other thing we should mention, we wanted to talk briefly about what can you do other. i mean, when you sit here and talk about it, it's it's interesting and fun and you can have some intellectual exercise. But call your congressperson, your senator, send them an email or something. Remind them what you think.
Speaker: right. With that being said, we will see you next time. Bye-bye.
