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Anousheh Ansari on Innovation Prizes for Space, AI, Quantum Computing, and Carbon Removal
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Anousheh Ansari joins the podcast to discuss how innovation prizes can incentivize technical innovation in space, AI, quantum computing, and carbon removal. We discuss the pros and cons of such prizes, where they work best, and how far they can scale. Learn more about Anousheh's work here: https://www.xprize.org/home
Timestamps:
00:00 Innovation prizes at XPRIZE
08:25 Deciding which prizes to create
19:00 Creating new markets
29:51 How far can prizes scale?
35:25 When are prizes successful?
46:06 100M dollar carbon removal prize
54:40 Upcoming prizes
59:52 Anousheh's time in space
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Transcript
Introduction and XPRIZE Mission
00:00:00
Speaker
Welcome to the Future of Life Institute podcast. My name is Gus Docker, and I'm here with Anna-Shay Ansari, who is the CEO of the XPRIZE Foundation. Anna-Shay, welcome to the podcast. It's great to be with you, Gus. Fantastic. Okay. Tell us a bit about XPRIZE. What is the foundation doing? What's the goal?
00:00:20
Speaker
Well, XPRIZE Foundation has been around for 30 years. We're actually celebrating our 30th anniversary this year. And there's one focus for the foundation, and that is to really solve humanity's grand challenges through innovation.
00:00:37
Speaker
And the way we do that is using incentivized competitions. So we really arrange and ah design very specific and deliberate competitions to look at what breakthroughs and innovation we need to solve some of the biggest problems that humanity faces. And we launch those, we ask everyone around the globe to participate, to demonstrate, build and demonstrate their solutions to us. So we're very different in that because we are not we don't want to just award ideas. There are lots of ideas there. It's the execution that matters. So we really push the innovators to build and demonstrate their solutions. And we have third party judges who validate and make sure that yes, the problem is solved.
First Competition: Space Access
00:01:25
Speaker
specifically those goals that we've set for the competitions are achieved and then we award tens to hundreds of millions of dollars to the winners. Maybe the easiest way to understand XPRIZE is for you to give some examples of some prizes. I've been involved with the foundation since the beginning and we got our start actually by trying to open up access to space. So the competition that my family and I sponsored was specifically to look at how that do we really open up access to to Orbit and make sure that it's available to everyone, to their business company. Because back then, unlike right now, what you see, it it was not possible for commercial companies to launch anything to space without
00:02:14
Speaker
the government involvement. So ah we've set competition and we set a bar where we taught this audacious enough, but the achievable. And that was a hundred kilometers just to get to the edge of space. And we wanted to be reusable. ah We wanted the cost to come down and we wanted reusable access. So you had to make the trip twice within two weeks to go to a hundred kilometers, come back and do it again to $10 million. dollars And you had to do it without the money from the government.
00:02:44
Speaker
and The competition attracted $100 million dollars of investment by the teams to win the competition. There were 11 teams who participated from different countries, and we were really looking at how we can change the mindset about what's possible with access to space. and We were able to actually work with the you know with FAA and policymakers and shift their point of view and allow for these companies to launch to space. And that was the beginning of FAA youre really considering creating new policies for commercial activities.
Working with Policy and Diverse Challenges
00:03:23
Speaker
around space access and launch. and We helped draft those policies with FAA. and That's what really pretty enabled this whole new industry of what we call new space and to be created. and Now, you know there are trillions of dollars being invested in space and we have several you know reusable launch systems and excited to see all that has happened. so That's how we got our start. and From there on, we've been working in seven different areas, climate and energies.
00:03:58
Speaker
One of our active ones looking at carbon capture right now, $100 million dollar carbon capture. We are looking at rain forest, wildfires, alternative protein, health. So we have a lot of activities that really tries to push the boundaries of what's possible.
00:04:16
Speaker
How do you find the right balance with the prices? So the goals you're setting are ambitious enough that they would actually change things, but not so ambitious that they're impossible and that the price will not be claimed by anyone.
00:04:30
Speaker
It's more of ah an art than science. It's very hard, but we spend about six to nine months really doing deep research when we're trying to design a ah prize. a We have an amazing group of Brain Trust members and we interview two to three hundred innovators, researchers, scientists, to really understand what what is the state of technology today. and We you know assess the problem to understand what we need to change, what breakthroughs ah we need to put in place to really solve the problem. and How can we tell the problem is solved? What's our KPI, if you would, on a solution? so When we try to set all of that together, then we can look at
00:05:18
Speaker
ah within the timeframe and within reasonable investment, what can be done in the three to five years that we run a competition.
Moon Rover Competition and Limitations
00:05:28
Speaker
And that's basically how we set the goals for the prize. ah Sometimes we hit it right on the money and and and it's it's right level of audaciousness, but sometimes we overshoot. For example, we had the Google Lunar competition, which was for a rover to land on the surface of the moon and drove and take pictures and send back. And no one won that competition. ah Three out of those teams who competed in the competition continued even after the prize expired and they have made an attempt and they all have made it to the surface of the moon. Not all of them in one piece, but that was still, you know, looking back at it now, many years later,
00:06:11
Speaker
It was more audacious than what we should have said as a goal, but even the competitions that you know they don't go on to announce a winner at the end, ah we really move the needle on the innovation and and awareness of the problem. and all the solutions and innovations that goes into solving the problems. Eventually, there's a lot more capital invested in the solutions and will have an impact perhaps after the timeline. so that is i mean Even our failures are successes in another world.
00:06:47
Speaker
Are there prizes or areas where you would you would have want to offer a prize, but you couldn't because you couldn't get the criteria for completion of a prize to be concrete enough. And so you couldn't offer the prize. There are ah problems that are not suitable for a competition. So we we look at those all the time. Usually the ones that require human behavior change or problems that are more of a social problem nature, for example,
00:07:17
Speaker
I tell you there's great interest in what we call a democracy price, if you would. Is there a way to look at better political systems that's fair, that and that is you know reflective of the desires of the citizens of the country? But it's ah it's such a complex problem and it requires a lot of trust, a lot of you know interaction with voters and people who are in the political system that makes it very challenging for a competition or who would be the team who who would compete in that type of competition. So there are problems like that that we face, but a lot of the big problems that we're facing, you know, technologies can really advance faster in order to solve them better. And one thing that is important for us is
00:08:08
Speaker
to be very deliberate about how we direct those innovations and technologies to make sure that we look at it from an equity perspective as well. So we don't want to come up with solutions that are too expensive or not accessible by
Vision for 2040 and Strategic Goals
00:08:22
Speaker
everyone. So that is a very important part of the work we do. i I'm guessing you you want to offer prizes that change trajectories for for technologies or show that something that something is possible that we previously thought was not possible.
00:08:38
Speaker
how do you How do you think about picking the areas to offer prizes and with with that in mind? So we actually have a process that we perfected over the years and we look at what are some of the biggest problems in each of our domains. So we have climate and energy, biodiversity and conservation,
00:08:59
Speaker
Deep Tech Quantum AI, Space and Exploration, Health, Learning and Society, and Food Wastewater. Now, this sort of these categories broadly describe a lot of the important areas for sustaining human life on the planet. and then and and growing and having a good society. And what we do in each ah of these groups, we look at year 2040 and our mission at XPRIZE is to create an equitable world of abundance. So when we want to describe this equitable world of abundance in 2040,
00:09:38
Speaker
We look scientific look at scientific terms to be able to get very specific down to what would this world look like, what would abundance in energy look like, or abundance in health look like, so we can describe it in specific numbers and sense. And when we have that, that becomes our target.
00:09:57
Speaker
And then we can look at ah where we are today and analyze what's preventing us from achieving and that future. What barriers do we have? ah What breakthroughs do we need to to achieve that? And by defining those very clearly, then we can basically work backwards and and design competitions that will get us one step closer. And sometimes it's one competition, sometimes it's a series of competitions.
00:10:25
Speaker
And we work with a lot of the industries and you know large players and, again, innovators and researchers to really define those pathways, those roadmaps to the future, and then identify where XPRIZE can accelerate those breakthroughs and really make that future
Climate Change Focus and Carbon Capture
00:10:43
Speaker
come true. And that's where we focus our attention. And, again, not everything is an XPRIZE, but the ones that we feel we can make a difference, that's where we focus our attention.
00:10:53
Speaker
I'm very interested in innovation prizes in general. And and I want to know from you, what what have you learned about the pros and cons of innovation prizes from running the foundation for for a long time now? A lot of learnings. We've been around 30 years and and so you can imagine.
00:11:10
Speaker
One is, you know as they say, you get what you incentivize. So one thing that's very important is to make sure when we are designing a competition, the goals we set for the teams to achieve that we are very clear and deliberate.
00:11:27
Speaker
in what we want them to build and and demonstrate. So ah getting that right is very important. So more and more we spend time at the beginning to really understand and break down the problem set into sort of fundamentals and with first principle thinking really identify what ah what is causing, what's the root cause of a problem so we can design the prize to really eradicate the root cause rather than just superficially solve a problem. so that's What's an example of that distinction there? What what was what would be something that solves a problem and in a deep sense, solves the root cause as opposed to to a surface level solution?
00:12:08
Speaker
You can look at, for example, climate change. You can try to attempt to address the symptoms we have, which we need to anyway. Let's say we have temperature rises and erratic weather patterns. So prediction of those weather patterns and being able to help people protect their property lives and everything else against those erratic weather patterns is important, but equally or maybe even more important is that really understand why climate change is happening and how we can stop it. so Climate is a very complex area, so you can look at what's causing the climate change and within the timeframe, for example, the carbon you know removal competition that we have. It's centered around looking at, by 2050, we need to remove 10 gigatons per year.
00:13:08
Speaker
And the technologies and all the attempts that everyone's making is nowhere near that type of scale by 2050. So that's where we designed this competition to really scale up those technologies. But that doesn't take care of, you know, all the CO2 and greenhouse gases that we're still putting into the atmosphere. So ah in parallel with that, we're working on looking at what industries are contributing the most to actually these greenhouse gas emissions, and how can we help those industries change and really find alternatives so the input to to the atmosphere is reduced as well or eradicated. ah So that those two are working hand in hand. And on the other end, we also had launched a competition around
00:14:01
Speaker
How do we take this carbon that is captured and turn it into a usable product? So looking at circular economies and making sure that in the timeframe where we are transforming the industries to get to a and net zero, how can we deal with the CO2 that we are emitting and reduce the impact of it?
00:14:22
Speaker
um So, that's two sides of the problem that we look at. Or in the healthcare, you can look at you know treating diseases or, all on the other hand, understanding what is contributing to the disease itself and eradicating the root cause of the disease. So, those are two examples.
00:14:39
Speaker
How do you measure the long-term impact of an innovation price? Say you offered a price 20 years ago, how do you know all of the effects of that price two decades into the future? Have you done any studies on this? How do we know the long-term effects?
00:14:57
Speaker
That's a great question. So we have actually just ah completed our 30 years of impact study and really measuring impact for the type of prizes we launch, which is over a long period of time. It's difficult, but thankfully we've been around long enough to at least be able to demonstrate some of the impact we've already had with our past prizes, ah but also try to look at incremental change and trajectories and make sure that you know, the impact we're creating is on the right trajectory. And the way we do that is in several different numbers that we look at. One is we look at the capital investment in the innovations that we're trying to promote through the competition. So investment to the teams and investment in the field in general before
00:15:46
Speaker
launch and after launch of the prize throughout the prize and then years after the prize. So we see actually a huge surge when we launch our prize. And that's a big demonstrator of how a capital is going to go and fuel the innovations that we want. So that the price is effective in that sense. ah We also look at how many IP and or how many hours of R and&D ah has been spent in those types of innovations. So we measured that through the team's activities, and we look at that as another indicator. ah We also look at you know the amount of awareness about a topic, a problem set, or solutions. And we also, depending on the type of price, there is a market analysis that we do. ah We do a baseline for relaunch the competition, and then we do a market analysis of general
00:16:43
Speaker
ah capital and innovation ah going to a specific marketplace and the size of the market, if it's a new market we're creating. Our impact report that we published has actually shown on the average, we get about 33 times return if we compare it to the price first, so 33 times price first in terms of capital invested R and&D and the activities of the team. There's a lot of other things that happen that is hard to measure in numbers for impact. For example, you know a lot of times the technology that's developed for a particular competition is used in other areas, especially when we worked around sensors, whether it was around health sensors or environmental
00:17:30
Speaker
ocean sensors in in one scenario, then they went on to really have impact outside of just a very direct impact from the price. So a lot of the technologies, for example, developed for a tri-corder competition are now being used to treat you know so many other diseases.
00:17:50
Speaker
We worked tirelessly during COVID when the whole world was trying to figure out what happened. We had done a rapid COVID testing and and it was a very fast competition so people developed really low cost solution for testing and sensors for testing COVID. But now they've expanded those capabilities into a lot of other types of diseases and some novel new areas of work. One of the teams who was working with us on the Qualcomm Tricorder, for example, now has applied their technology to detect TB, which is a disease that impacts millions of people around the globe and is very treatable if detected early. So they use just cough on the phone to detect TB, but they also use it for COVID. So there's all these sort of cross ah-section of these competitions and the solutions that goes beyond the
00:18:43
Speaker
specific direct impact. And we, you know, captured the stories, but we can assign a number to how big of an impact that ah competition had just to show how vastly it can expand into other areas.
00:19:00
Speaker
How do you think about creating new markets that that do not
Commercial Spaceflight and Market Creation
00:19:04
Speaker
yet exist? For example, in in commercial space flight, how do you think about going from from from zero to one in a sense? Is that something where where an innovation prize is a big enough incentive ah to to incentivize the the creation of of an entirely new market?
00:19:19
Speaker
I believe so. i mean We have definitely looked at the the competition to open up access to space, to commercial activities. yeah and That is one of the biggest successes of of the foundation because you know when you're talking about the opening up a new market, you have to also understand why doesn't the market exist? Is there no need for it?
00:19:39
Speaker
or is there a high risk, or there's not enough players, or maybe there is a ah barrier in terms of acceptance by the society. So in case of space, it was at risk and regulatory issues that was really keeping us back.
00:19:56
Speaker
And by solving those problems, catalyzing the change, working with policymakers, and really pushing the policy forward, we really sort of created cultivated a the groundwork for the new companies to come in. And the the other side of this was ah really demonstrating to the world, sort of creating a mindset shift.
00:20:18
Speaker
to say that yes, there are small companies, small innovators that can build a spaceship with just 50 people and in in a hangar and fly to space. So when we demonstrated that, it created a change in the mindset of, oh, I don't need like billions of dollars to to do this and that it is possible. And that created a surge of new innovators and entrepreneurs who entered the
00:20:49
Speaker
marketplace and then you had the rigged regulatory framework that supported them. So that was ah really an important part of catalyzing the this new market in space. And but we're doing the same thing in the alternative protein. In that area, you needed the competition, I think, not only to advance technology and bring the cost down, but also create awareness in the marketplace from a consumer perspective to say that I should really try and look at this and you know and and be open to the possibility of a protein that is you know an animal protein that is coming.
00:21:29
Speaker
ah from a settled agriculture in a lab versus a farm. Do you worry that if you're trying to create a new market that doesn't yet exist, there there might be a reason for that for that market not existing yet. You might be be pushed into markets where where the incentives have naturally sprung up.
00:21:48
Speaker
And so there might be some some something we don't know about why markets don't exist in, ah say, ah why there isn't a thriving markets in alternative proteins, for example. Are you being kind of adverse selected into into bad markets or bad areas of the economy?
00:22:06
Speaker
I believe that the research that we do is so deep that if there is good reason and reason that we cannot overcome for a market not to to not to be there, not to exist, then we would come across it during our research phase at the beginning. ah like the One of the areas that was sort of limiting the excessive protein marketplace was the nutrition factor, the cost, and the texture.
00:22:35
Speaker
of the plant-based alternatives that was being created. So we put those as criteria for the teams that compete to achieve during this competition. So it in some ways, we know we do set the bar high and make sure that the teams understand that in order for them to be successful in the marketplace, we believe they need to achieve certain things. And We've heard that from the teams actually in almost all of our competition. They say that we set the bar high and we make our demands are high and we make it very difficult for them. But they also add to that that we all felt that you guys are being really hard on us during the competition. But now after the competition is over, we have
00:23:23
Speaker
an advantage over other teams or we have an advantage because of what you pushed us to do is exactly what the market demands and needs. So they have a greater degree of success after the competition than people who are not in the competition.
00:23:41
Speaker
I think potentially one of the strongest arguments for innovation prices is that if you offer a price of, say, 1 million, you might get 10 million in private funding trying to solve the problem that you're offering the price for. I saw one study by Hoyt and Phyllis from 2007, including that the original Ansari X price stimulated $100 million dollars in private capital with a cash value of $10 million. dollars but that that's That's pretty impressive. Did you find that that the return compared to the price varies by area? And then do you worry about picking areas where the returns would be, say, 10x or 20x? I would say it's true. Yes, we do attract a lot more capital. And on the average, across all of our other prices, we've launched
00:24:31
Speaker
We see about 21 times the price first is invested by the teams to win. And again, you have to also look at the type of innovation we're asking people to build. and you know If we're asking them to build a software product, their capital cost is a lot less if we're but asking them to build a in know kiloton or gigaton plant for removing CO2, that's a much bigger ask. So the price purse and the investment by the teams in winning the competition sort of, you know, aligns to what exactly we're asking them to build. And I don't worry about not achieving, you know, 30 times or 20 times because even 10 times return, it's incredible.
00:25:21
Speaker
because these are areas that there is usually zero to very, very low investment to begin with. So though the amount we're increasing, you know even if it's not 30 times, it's still significant for the type of innovation we're trying to do. So we don't pick things that are mainstream. If the capital market is already investing in an area and pushing technology forward, we don't need to do anything because it's happening naturally.
00:25:51
Speaker
It's only when the traditional ah market approaches, VC funding, public funding, grants, are not going in solving the problems we're trying to to solve or that it's not scaling fast enough because of the risk involved and and the risk tolerance of the investors. That's where an incentive competition can really make a difference.
00:26:14
Speaker
Do you think these innovation prices can potentially fill in a gap where private investors are worried that that they're not seeing returns quickly enough on their capital? So it do these innovation prices allow us to think longer term in the problems we're trying to solve? We're hoping that's the case. And I would say interacting with some of the investor in this area, I can say it is the case. This is not the type of investment for everyone. so You would mostly see impact investors or governments behind this type of investments because they are longer term. But you know we got ou ourselves and into this ah problem sets because of our short-term thinking, our capital markets are structured to
00:27:02
Speaker
really look at quarterly profits and that is not really a good approach if you're trying to create long-term impact. and and really invest now in technologies that will really make a big difference you know two to three years down the line. So the capital market system have become so short-term focused that you need this incentivized competition to really you know draw the gaze of the innovators and investors a little bit further out to to three to five years out.
00:27:34
Speaker
Although I think venture capital can often be longer term that and perhaps you you lock up your money for five years. what what is What is the difference between venture capital and innovation prices in the types of things that can be funded by both?
Driving Innovation and New Markets
00:27:49
Speaker
So I think venture capital invests in existing markets. You rarely see VCs invest in in new markets. And you see them looking at short-term business plans. So they are not interested in really, not all VCs, I should say, are not interested in disruptive technologies. And I think incentive competitions really is pushing the boundaries. So we're not looking at incremental improvement. ah We're not looking at short-term profit. We're looking at giant leaps forward and market changing type of innovation, disruptive technologies that can really perhaps even kill certain markets and create new markets instead.
00:28:34
Speaker
So that's high risk. So the level of risk tolerance that you require from investors in that area is high. And then the technologies are not proven. So the incentive competitions become a catalyst to sort of do a little bit of risk mitigation, because especially with the X5s, again, we're not an ideas competition. So when it comes to this type of innovation,
00:29:00
Speaker
We do a lot of the due diligence. so During the three to five years that it takes to win the competition, we are doing the due diligence of validating the technologies as as the price proceeds. so By the time they are ready to receive investor money, they have an NPV. They have a prototype that they can demonstrate, and it has been validated by you know third-party expert judges. So it's them saying, hey, I have the best technology. It's someone outside of the company who's made that determination. So it really brings the risk profile and down to a place where the investors are more comfortable investing in new types of technology. That's why incentive competition in these specific high-risk, high-end board areas work well.
00:29:51
Speaker
so You mentioned $100 million dollars carbon capture or carbon removal price. so so one hundred million dollars is that that That's a lot of money. How far do you think innovation prices can scale? ah Would a $1 billion dollar ah innovation price make sense? And if so, for for what area? so I would say that the price purse has to be relevant to the, again, type of technology that we're trying to build and how much the teams have to invest in building the solution. So for a billion dollar, I would say that if I had someone who said, you know, what would you do? What would you design with a billion dollar in price first? I would create actually a series of competition. For example, you know, since we're on the carbon
00:30:40
Speaker
and climate issue. The industry right now is using a lot of material that are really difficult to cultivate in a sustainable fashion, either produce it or mine it or or get access to those materials. So I would have a series of competition where I would pick the top three or top four materials that the most many industries use that are critical to the to the future of humanity and say, how can we
00:31:12
Speaker
gain access to these materials in a more sustainable way or replace them with a new material that can be produced in a sustainable way. And we would design a series of competitions around that. Our electrification and and moving to sustainable energy, for example, has increased demand on a lot of you know material, rare earth material and things that true art traditional mining process. For example, they're very you know either just not a fair way of gaining access to it or that they are very polluting and and not very sustainable. So I'll look at them and I'll look at, can we replace them?
00:31:55
Speaker
Can we look elsewhere for this material? Can we use quantum computing, for example, to come up with new material that would be suitable to replace them? and So there's multiple approaches that can be deployed for this type of complex solutions and then design a series of competitions around.
00:32:15
Speaker
So what is the main function of the prize purse? Is it to motivate people or is it to give the teams that have spent a lot of money some return on their investment into trying to to ah trying to solve the problem and get the prize?
00:32:30
Speaker
The main point of it is to really attract the innovators and focus them on a specific solution. so We don't specify how you solve the problem, but we specify what the solution should look like, what it should achieve. so the enough the the the money basically is there to really bring those critical thinkers, those garage thinkers or are people who would you would not traditionally think they may work on this problem set alongside of the other
00:33:10
Speaker
ah people who may be already working on it and focus them in a very specific area. So that's the main point, but it also helps the teams because usually when you're trying to do something that's novel and high risk, getting that first money is very difficult.
00:33:29
Speaker
And we don't wait until the end of the competition to give money to these teams. So we have some money that we give away at the beginning. We have some in the milestone prize in the middle and then the end of the competition where we award the top winners. But throughout the competition, they received a little bit of money and more importantly, they received recognition from us and and we really put them on a pedestal and we try to connect them with investor groups that you know that they can help them in and getting to where they want to go. And at the end of the day also, the prize purse is a non-dilutive capital, so they don't give givea away equity to receive this money, so it's a very valuable money for for you know but entrepreneurs.
00:34:17
Speaker
Yeah, how do you think about money as a motivator versus being put on a pedestal, as you mentioned, or prestige as a motivator? I imagine there are a bunch of aspiring scientists out there very motivated to one day receive a Nobel Prize, for example, even though a Nobel Prize is not as much money as as the carbon removal prize, but it is extremely prestigious. So how do you think about prestige as as a factor here or recognition from society or from other scientists? I wouldn't call it prestige when it comes to expiry scenes. I would say recognition for solving a big problem. What I've seen in many of the teams, and that's why they go on, even if they don't win the competition, even if the competition expires, they continue their work. They're in this form for the passion they have in solving the problem.
00:35:10
Speaker
They're not in it for the money alone and the money helps. They need the money to achieve it, but they're in it for the purpose, what they're building and the passion they have for the solution and not for the money. But the recognition helps and the money helps.
00:35:25
Speaker
In preparation for this interview, I looked into some of the literature on innovation prizes and they identify two factors that that lead to prizes being successful successful. One is that there's a clear goal, but the path to achieving it is not clear. And this I think this is something you've stressed multiple times already, that you need to to specify quite in in in in quite a serious detail what you're looking for. Have there been times where XPRIZE hasn't specified what what you were looking for in well enough? And you maybe tell us about you know how the how how how this this process of specifying the details can fail. and I will give you some examples because I don't necessarily call it failure. ah just It's not perfect. As I said, it's an art, not a science. So sometimes you set the bar high and the teams don't win it. Sometimes you set the bar low. and
00:36:20
Speaker
you are like, that you know, we we had to make that decision. For example, we had the genomics XPRIZE and we're trying to reduce the cost of human genome sequencing. And we saw that by the time we launched the competition, we got the sponsors on board and we launched the competition. We saw that so much money was already going into the technology that the cost was coming down there rapidly and we canceled the conscience. We're not adding any value here. It's happening by itself. Or in the case of Google Lunar Express, for example, I mentioned that how we set the bar. high so
00:36:53
Speaker
during the time of the competition, no one could achieve it. So it expired because it took you know another two years before the first team could fly to space. The other type of example is we sometimes try to bring technologies together. So it sometimes it's not just the innovation. There are certain types of solution where different parts of the marketplace, different technologies have to come together.
00:37:22
Speaker
in order to win a competition. And while for our competition, the one we have active right now is a good example because we have, you know, we have technologies can detect fires that can potentially use AI to say this fire could potentially become dangerous. um And then we have companies working on technologies to eight fighters, men and women to put out the fire. They're not necessarily working together right now. um So in order to win our competition, they have to come together. They have to detect it and put it out within 10 minutes. So either a company had to build the other part of the solution or they had to partner with with others. So that's an example
Multidisciplinary Solutions and Quantum Computing
00:38:07
Speaker
of that. And then we had the same thing with the Avatar competition with
00:38:10
Speaker
A lot of sensing and haptic technologies and robotic technologies had to come together in order to achieve the goal of the competition. so Those types of things happen all the time. and and ah failure of if If we failed, which I haven't had fortunately, a scenario where I said we'd really miss the mark on this.
00:38:32
Speaker
you know we we are looking at problems sometimes that we can identify just one solution and we allow for flexibility, which makes judging more difficult. For example, AI for good or our quantum algorithm are good examples of those. We are trying to advance the technology, not toward them one specific goal,
00:38:57
Speaker
But we're trying to change the mindset of the innovators, which are scarce usually in the area of technology like quantum um developers right now are are scarce resource, very valuable resource. And so we want to make sure that instead of all of them working on financial solutions or cryptography to have a subset of them look at bigger issues that faces humanity and sort of use their knowledge and the technology toward good. So in those scenarios, we leave it a little bit open. We ah say AI for good or quantum for good, you know, to solve sustainable development goal type problems that impacts billions of people. And then when we judge them, we judge them on the impact on society versus, you know, the technological achievements.
00:39:47
Speaker
what What are some problems that can be solved more efficiently by a quantum computer versus a traditional computer? What is what is what are what are some areas in which quantum could have this real world impact?
00:40:02
Speaker
Right now, a lot of the promising areas are areas that involve material science and chemistry in order for us to be able to find ah just the right type of material or chemistry that can really change the way we you know develop a material or replace a material that's already in this circulation in different systems.
00:40:25
Speaker
ah It takes many, many years, decades to really find the right compound and create it and test it and make sure it works. So ah what we've seen, for example, as a really promising area for the quantum algorithms is that where you can actually demonstrate supremacy versus classical computing is in those types of problems.
00:40:49
Speaker
So searching through potentially new materials or potentially new drugs and and why do we know exactly why is it that quantum computers ah demonstrate the supremacy over classical computers in in in those domains?
00:41:03
Speaker
The competition is set to prove that, but the type of applications, you know we've gotten really good with classical computing in terms of we can crunch a lot of data now faster with classical computers, and especially with AI and generative AI. When it comes to quantum, there are certain types of problem sets where the number of variables are and and the state of those variables are very high. So you don't need the large data set, but the number of possibilities are very high. And classical computers are not necessarily good at calculating those types of you know problems where the number of variables and the different possibilities and combinations are very high.
00:41:51
Speaker
So they have to go through it one by one. So that's where quantum computers are probably well suited. Again, because they work on the premise of nature and how nature functions would you know at the quantum level. And and the the problems in the chemistry and material science are also problems that can be solved at the quantum level.
00:42:16
Speaker
how do you How do you set up the right resolution criteria for getting this quantum prize? The underlying science is is quite complex and so I imagine you need to ah get help from experts in this domain to to set the right criteria.
00:42:32
Speaker
Oh, absolutely. And, you know, we have a lot of companies who are working with us. This is a prize that is sponsored by Google. Of course, they are very interested and supportive. JESDA, who is a Swiss entity, ah Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipators.
00:42:52
Speaker
I have been actually working with them on launching Open Quantum Institute where it's bringing a lot of ah technical expertise and giving them access to quantum cloud computing. So ah there's a lot of these companies involved with these two activities providing simulation and cloud quantum computing resources where we can test out these and of course expertise we have.
00:43:18
Speaker
We have a few a really impressive group of scientists who will be evaluating these algorithms and and judging it based on very specific criteria. You mentioned the AI for good prices.
AI for Good and Carbon Removal
00:43:35
Speaker
What what is what is your goal with those prices?
00:43:38
Speaker
So AI for Good, we launched also a while ago. IBM was the sponsor of that competition. And at that time, we wanted to.
00:43:49
Speaker
really create a conversation around ethical uses of AI. And again, focusing the talent that was being developed at the time, this is almost now, I believe, maybe 10 years ago, to really focus those you know talent and energy toward ah how can AI really be used to solve big problems and and not just financially motivated problems.
00:44:17
Speaker
We looked at how ah the technologies can impact people and one of the criteria was, you know, the problem you're solving, how many people are impacted by it so that this solution will create a better world for, you know, is it for 10 million people or is it for a billion people?
00:44:37
Speaker
So the size of the addressable market, if you would, ah for lack of better terminology, it was one of the criteria we looked at. So it was just directing and showing the world that how these powerful technologies can be used for good and for helping people. And how is that price going or how is that set of prices going?
00:44:59
Speaker
So the AI for good was awarded a while ago and we had four winners because we had four really good solutions. One was around using AI to address and detect human trafficking activities and be able to.
00:45:14
Speaker
ah really punish people who watch sort of capture the people who are involved in that type of industry. Another one was around malaria and detecting areas prone to malaria and being able to treat them very rapidly. One was around education and learning. And the last one, if I remember correctly, was around you know recycling and making recycling easier.
00:45:41
Speaker
It was a company called Trashbot, so it was using imaging and sensing technology and AI to, instead of us separating things into different categories of recycling, it would just, as you throw something in the trash, it would put it in the right bin based on that. So it was completely diverse. That would be useful. Yeah. Actually, they're deployed in many of the airports now.
00:46:06
Speaker
I think we should also touch upon the carbon removal price that we've mentioned a couple of times here. This is just reading from from the price itself. Teams must demonstrate a working solution at a scale of at least 1,000 tons removed per year, model their costs at a scale of 1 million tons per year and show a pathway to to achieving a scale of gigatons per year in the future.
00:46:31
Speaker
So maybe maybe give us some some context for those numbers. What would it mean to achieve a gigaton of ah carbon removal? So it's a very good question, and and it was a you know one of the most, I think, impactful prizes that I'm super excited we launched. We're in the final stages right now. We've announced the top 20 teams, and we're in process of testing those and validating their solutions.
00:46:59
Speaker
If you remember, I talked about we need to be audacious but the achievable. Part of that criteria is that we need to understand how much a team has to spend in building something. So we there was no way we could ask someone to build a Gigaton factory. This would be massive, massive billions of dollars of investment. And so for us, it was more important to make sure that we have enough scientific validation of the solution but be able to show pathway for scaling to the size of these facilities that we need um by the timeframe we needed. And we needed to have it in a way that can be validated. So that's why we picked kiloton, which even a kiloton facility, building a kiloton facility and demonstrating is not easy. And so kiloton is what they are demonstrating physically to us. And you know with that, they can
00:47:52
Speaker
validate and demonstrate their costs, the elements that are involved in building the solution, and how they would change throughout time as and they scale up. so That gives us enough data point to be able to validate their technology and the business model and make sure that there is a valid pathway to get to gigaton. and So far, we're very impressed with the teams. and I tell people that ah Before this competition, all I heard from different ah news media and and other sources was that it's already too late. ah By 2050, we're not going to meet our target and we're going to pass the one and a half and even two and a half degree and we need to just start figuring out how to build cities floating on water. And that was very depressing for me. But you know having had the opportunity to
00:48:48
Speaker
see the teams who are competing and the type of solutions, I have great hope ben and almost certainty that these companies will be able to solve this problem and I don't need to worry about how to build the city on water.
00:49:03
Speaker
does it get cheaper to remove tons of of carbon as you scale? So are there economics of scale involved here? And and if so, how how how do you how do you model this? If you can achieve 1,000 tons removed in a year, how do you model the process of of of scaling that out to a gigatons per year and and the cost of doing so? Yeah, so it's it's a very good question and a very complex question that a lot of our team members have been really working hard to create really fair and valid methodology on how to measure. And the hardest part of this was we allow for four different types of solution. We allow for direct air capture, ah for ocean-based solution, for land-based solution, and mineral-based solutions. And they all work differently on different timelines.
00:49:59
Speaker
and So we had to come up with appropriate criteria for the tech each type of technology and be able to capture the cost components and be able to compare them now fairly across all of them. ah So that was the hardest part of this solution. But what we look at is you know when when they demonstrate a solution,
00:50:20
Speaker
we can look at all the cost component. And that's part of the data that the teams have to submit. So they show us that this is the entire technical solution. And these are all the elements involved in the solution and delivering the final result. And the you know they will show us the cost. Some of these are sourced from you know regular sources. So we can validate the scaling cost model for each component. Some of it may be not the cost of specific product or you know membrane, for example, they use. ah But maybe it's using land, maybe it's an agriculture base. So we take into account how much ah land you use in order to deliver the amount of carbon capital that you are mentioning. Or it may we also look at the technical design and see if it's modular. and fear just Let's say if you want to scale, do you just add 10 more modules or
00:51:18
Speaker
you know, thousands of more modules. Is there a technical limit to how you can scale up and what are those technical limits? So before you have to now build a new factory, how much you can scale a single factory. So there's a lot that goes into that. then Also, I wanted to mention with this prize, we don't believe there's a silver bullet. and that's why i mean We're highlighting all the teams because geography and the type of solution have to match. If, for example, you're using geothermal energy source, then your solution is best suited for countries where geothermal is available.
00:52:00
Speaker
Or if you're using ocean-based solutions, of course, you need to find areas where you can have those types of partners. Or if you're partnering with mining companies, same thing. Maybe you could tell us a bit about the different types of carbon capture available. You mentioned direct and mineral and and two others. Maybe talk a bit about that.
00:52:21
Speaker
yeah There are four basically tracks in our carbon competition where we have teams who are just delivering direct air capture. That's like the simplest way of just capturing CO2 from the atmosphere directly. Then we have ocean-based solutions where they are using different types of solutions to capture CO2 from ocean water.
00:52:43
Speaker
and We also have mineral-based solution where basically it's with rock weathering and and basically capturing CO2 inside the rock formations and and and then you know using it in different ways. Then there is also land-based solutions like regenerative agriculture or ah forestation and other types of lands and nature-based approaches.
00:53:10
Speaker
And do we have an indication so far of which of these approaches are working the best? Actually, ah I don't believe there is one solution that's better than all of them. Of course, direct air capture, for example, is the simplest way to to actually measure how much CO2 you remove, but it's the highest energy intensity type solution. So getting the costs down is hard. I've seen very promising ocean-based solutions.
00:53:38
Speaker
that can be very effective. um So I think at the end of the day, we will have all these four types of solutions available out there and we will have all of them ah contributing to getting us to our target of 10 gigaton per year. But we will be able to, during the competition, measure them against each other. And more importantly, you know the type of people who, for example, are looking at carbon credit, they can really have a way to
00:54:10
Speaker
make sure that the price of the carbon they capture and the amount of carbon capture is validated. So I think the teams will all go to become very successful companies in this marketplace. What we will help the entire marketplace to grow is by validating and comparing these different types of solutions so people can regulate the carbon credit market better and be able to you know select the right solutions for the type of carbon they want to purchase.
Future Competitions and Personal Motivations
00:54:40
Speaker
Could you talk a bit about some upcoming prizes that you're considering or some areas that XPRIZE is considering making prizes in? and what What are some of them? Yeah, maybe maybe we can peek a bit into the future and discuss that.
00:54:55
Speaker
We have a lot of great ideas and we publish some of those ideas that come from our you know network and brain trust members and community on our website. But ah we we're planning to do a lot more in energy sector, obviously. ah We definitely need, whether it's our shipping industry, aviation industry, transportation industry.
00:55:16
Speaker
They all need sustainable solutions. And so we're looking at the areas in that regard. We're also looking at potential prizes in advancing fusion technology because ultimately that could be sort of a holy grail for for access to clean, sustainable and cheap energy.
00:55:38
Speaker
We're looking at space debris removal because that's a problem that's growing and as our need to get data about our own planet and environment grows. And we have more and more satellites being launched, space to be becoming a bigger issue. So we're hoping to get sponsors for that to launch. We're looking at different activities around health. And one of the areas of focus right now is a problem that's rising in the world and that's, you know, mental health. We see a big increase in mental health issues in young people.
00:56:12
Speaker
So trying to address that. On the other side of this, at the intersection of energy and technology, as our technological needs are increasing, the energy consumption by cloud computing infrastructures are increasing. So we're looking at the low energy chipsets. So we can really reduce the energy intake.
00:56:37
Speaker
ah while we're trying to create sources of sustainable energy. So we're always looking at supply and demand side of everything. and Those are just saw some of them. I mean, we're looking at you know different types of AI solutions, and whether it's in healthcare systems or in just understanding information in the world, like looking at Can we understand the language of different animals and understand the world through that lens and communication of different species? So interspecies communication is what we call that prize. We're also looking at sources of energy and material outside of our planet. So whether it's, you know, space-based solar power satellites or other means of getting energy from space.
00:57:23
Speaker
We're looking at mining issues, as I said, to look at more sustainable mining practices or replacing some of the material in the supply chain to be able to create more sustainable products overall. and So a lot around circular economy and Many, many prizes in the design for the education sector and looking at future of work, future of learning, the entire infrastructure that we have, the brick and mortar approach of learning has changed, but we haven't made the leap forward of what would education and job and and society look like in the future. So I'm looking at designing and launching prizes in that area. so
00:58:07
Speaker
Is there a DreamX prize that you would love to offer but haven't been able to do ah to offer yet? Well, that's such a hard question. ah Many of the prizes I mentioned are so important for me. What my dream would be is going back to something you asked earlier. It's like a billion dollar. I would love you know a group of companies in an industry to come to us and say,
00:58:33
Speaker
hey, let's just clean our so entire supply chain and offer whatever amount, let's say a billion, to do 10 prizes or 12 prizes and take the entire supply chain and just clean up an entire supply chain. Because if I can demonstrate that that's possible in that one industry, then we can really look at all the different industries and and do the same.
00:59:00
Speaker
And when you say clean up, you mean it in an an environmental sense of of getting the sourcing the materials in the correct way and getting rid of them ah the materials in the correct way? and Yes, replacing them, making them sustainable, ah eliminating them somehow.
00:59:16
Speaker
And the technologies and advancement that could come from this type of work can go much beyond that specific material. So, for example, we talked about quantum computing, and if we use quantum simulation to demonstrate some solutions, or whether it's just the way we extract the product or the material from Earth,
00:59:39
Speaker
ah finding sources outside of our planet for that material. So there's ah different approaches to it. So it cannot not only clean that supply chain, but advanced innovation technologies in so many different directions. If you have a history of space exploration, could you tell us about what what what is that history? How did it come about? It's pretty amazing reading your your your history of how you went to space and and all of these things. um Yeah, please tell us about that.
01:00:09
Speaker
So my passion for space, which started when I was very young, is what connected me to XPRIZE to begin with. So I ended up not becoming an astronaut because I was born and raised in Iran without any space program. ah But because I had the passion, I just kept it alive while I was building a whole career for myself in technology and building tech companies and And fortunately, I was successful in that you know in that line of work. But once I sold my company, I felt really compelled to now do something that is more aligned with my personal passion, which was space. And that was about the same time where Peter Diamandis, the founder of the
01:00:55
Speaker
exp prize foundation had dreamt up this whole concept of a competition to open up access to space. So our stars aligned and we came together and my family and I ended up sponsoring the competition. But the best part of that was that's how I entered sort of you know, the the whole space community officially. And when the prize was won, a year after the prize was won, we were celebrating. And at that celebration event is when I was given the offer to go and train as a cosmonaut with the Russian space agency and ultimately saying yes to that proposition, being in in Russia and training.
01:01:39
Speaker
gave me the opportunity to fly to International Space Station in 2006 and achieve my lifelong dream of going to space. and The experience of being in space really shaped the way I look at the world now and and how I choose to spend my time and energy and really helped me with the decision five years ago to become CEO of XPRIZE because I felt that being able to see the world from space and and being able to see how important it is for us to collaborate
01:02:15
Speaker
and how we have this really precious, unique place we call home, we call planet Earth. It's worth spending our time and energy to preserve it. and We spend so much time on like little things, and when you have the opportunity to really see the big picture from space, I made that decision to focus my time and energy basically on big picture things. and That's what expresses us. We focus on big picture problems. and And I love to spend my time really just battling those big problems in the world. And I let the rest ah worry about the smaller problems, which are important too. But I like to to to focus on the big problems. And that's what we do at XPRISE. That's fantastic. Anashe, thanks for coming on the podcast. It was a pleasure. Thank you for having me.