Transcript
Speaker: Welcome everybody in to Warm Weather Fans the Sunbelt Podcast. My name is Brian Stone. I'm back with you bringing you another episode this week with Old Dominion and Arkansas State we will be running down. ah Joining me once again is Matt Mieges and Zeke Palermo. ah Matt, how are you doing?
Speaker: Brian, I'm doing well. Just continuing to to plug away on the college football 25 video game. I think I'm up to 60 hours played ah since its release. My wife is really tired of watching me play that game every single night. But, uh, look, you know, when we get deeper into these sunbelt previews, you know, that that the season is getting closer and closer and closer. I mean, God, August 1st is Thursday. I mean, we're, we're, we're three weeks away from week zero.
Speaker: So the other member of of our crew, the guy that reminds me of the guy that just did the pommel horse in the Olympics last night, Zeke Palermo. Zeke, how are you doing, bud? I'm doing OK. Today, as we record this, moved back in with my mom out of my college apartment, lived there in the same place for three years with my three best friends. So that that was bittersweet, um mixed emotions about being back home. but So I'm physically exhausted, but other than that, I'm rocking and rolling, man. Well, speaking of mixed emotions, we're going to get to talking about the Old Dominion monarchs here. um so i i know I want to open up with this because I i hadn't taken a hard look at Old Dominion's previous win -loss records from pre -Sunbelt years.
Speaker: So I wanna start off with this question. I asked this during the Georgia State episode about Zeke and said, what what are realistic expectations, right? Like they were rebuilding, they had a new coach, et cetera, et cetera. I went back and looked at Old Dominion's previous season's records. They have not had a winning season since 2016.
Speaker: Ricky Ronnie is now in his fifth year. He has a win -loss record of 15 and 23 at the school.
Speaker: I guess this this can be like a rhetorical question or if you guys want to offer something up, that's that's fine too. What is considered a successful season at Old Dominion? Like, I don't mean like expectations or anything like that. I just mean the second the season ends, they're like, good job. Is it like seven wins? Is it six wins? I mean, you go back and look at the previous season's records, it's not been much better than six and seven. Nixon, a respectable bull, bull showing, I think has to is, you know, the year on year bar. um I don't know, this team hasn't been exceptional by hasn't been good, frankly, um since it joined the Sunbelt since, you know, it joined FBS. So I feel like on a year to year basis, like, if you can get a bull game and
Speaker: go up well enough in that you get that's enough to keep a job. Well, I mean, so again, going back to 2016, it's also the last time they won a bowl game. They have three bowl appearances since 2016. So Zeke, based off of what you said, you can just kind of give a yes or no here. was last season going six and six and losing in Western Kentucky losing to Western Kentucky in overtime in the bowl game was that successful and I'm not I'm not saying you're wrong either way I just mean like what what do we consider that a success are we saying that we're achieved if we're talking
Speaker: uh last season that was an exceptional season uh because that team especially the offense and we didn't shy away from this last year that Old Dominion offense was scarily under weaponized they ah there was no one on that roster that you could point to and say you're going to get me 80 receiving yards today. There's no one that you could point to and say you're going to give be good for 22 carries tonight. um So I thought last year by Old Dominion standards was exceptional. I mean, consider two years ago, they went three and nine ah in their first year in the Sunbelt. Mind you, all six of their wins last year all came in
Speaker: or I'm sorry, five of their six wins came in conference games. So I thought, again, by old demanding standards, it was an exceptional, exceptional season. Yeah, you know, if we could stay on that topic for a second. um You know, I think I find it comical that we're sitting here respectfully bashing. Old Dominion's track record since they've joined the FBS. Not saying it's unwarranted, i'm just we're we're respectfully bashing them. ah When last season, all three of our teams, Austin Old Dominion. All three of them. Yeah, I agree.
Speaker: but also I mean, Zeke, I don't have Georgia State's history in front of me. we All of our teams have put up a winning record since 2016. Think about how different the world was outside of football in 2016. And like that's the last time they've had a winning record. They did not play football in 2020 because of COVID. and I believe they were conference, they were either conference USA or independent that year. I can't remember, but like i were pounded lean yeah, I was about to say I would lean toward into considering they didn't play any games, but.
Speaker: I mean, you go back 20, okay, last year, six and seven, 2022, three and nine, 2021, six and seven, 2019, one and 11, 2018, four and eight, 2017, five and seven. So it's like, yes, we are like, quote unquote, bashing them. But it's it's like a ULM type situation almost, but they have a higher ceiling than ULM, but the results have kind of been on par with. So, you know, we don't go out of our way to unnecessarily give ULM credit. If anything, were we talk about how ah tough of a rebuild it is and how they're underfunded as a program. And, you know, we've we've talked as bad about them as you could possibly talk about a football program.
Speaker: Old Dominion hasn't been worse because they've put up a couple six -win seasons. But what ah again, what is success at Old Dominion? Is it just a bowl appearance? Because if that's so, then Ricky Ronnie in you know ah you know two of the last three years has done his job by making a bowl game. I think that kind of answers your question. you know you You go six and seven, two of the last three years, and the guy hasn't lost his job.
Speaker: So maybe six wins and appearing in a bowl game is is the mark. Because, I mean, let's be honest, you don't look at Old Dominion and go, oh man, athletics. like That's just not what they're known for. To be fair, I don't know what they're known for, but it's not athletics. So it's one of those things, you know, if you win six games and you're putting the ODE brand on national television and the famous toasterie bowl, ah which by the way, you should have never lost to Western Kentucky. You had a 35 to leave a little 14 lead in that game. and Western Kentucky came all the way back and beat you in overtime. Uh, so, but, but look, you know, you put your brand on national TV like that. I think that's all they're looking for. Honestly.
Speaker: either that or according to the college football 25 game having the best Sunbelt player ah and the only Sunbelt player in the top 100 according to the people that make that game in Jason Henderson. So those are your two calling cards. We made a bowl game two of the last three years and we have a top 100 player in the country on our team and That's about it. And it's at, I hate to say it, it's also at a kind of a position that is not a huge position of doesn't affect the game as much as certain other positions. Like you would much rather have a quarterback and we'll we'll go ahead and start here.
Speaker: Great Wilson comes back from last year, ah completed what, 57 % of his passes had almost 21 50 passing 17 to eight touchdown interception ratio. I mean, Zeke touched on it. There's there's just no weapons. Like there weren't any weapons last year. um I'm looking at the team this year. They're going to have to have someone step up. It's a little bit Matt, like a lesser version of Louisiana in that They're just like, we we're going to put 13 receivers out there and just. Somebody's got to make a play, right? Like if you have that many guys, someone's got to step up and it's like not necessarily. Zeke Palermo has to be the president of the Grant Wilson fan club. I mean, I remember last year, dude, you were loving on some Grant Wilson. And don't get me wrong. He's the only guy on that offense I can trust.
Speaker: He put up good numbers, I mean 57 % completion, 2100 yards, 17 touchdowns. i Old Dominion standards are pretty solid numbers, especially when you look at who he was throwing the ball to. ah He didn't have anybody. oh And you know, I think they've done a nice job of trying to address that this offseason. You brought in some P5 transfers that maybe didn't fit in their past schools. One guy that really stands out is Damarian Houston, spent the last two seasons at Missouri, a 5' 10", 187 pound senior. I think he brings a lot of veteran ability ah to to this ah offense. And you know, I,
Speaker: outside of him i mean i say a page uh... what had decent numbers last year for forty five and two touchdowns kelby williams returns uh... cf two receivers returning from last year ah so maybe that chemistry there helps but but outside of that guys act i'm not very excited about the skill players for Old Dominion. I'm just going to be honest. Well, I'll tell you, it doesn't matter how good their skill players are. ah You mentioned Isaiah Page who was a very high volume receiver for them last year, led the team in receptions, but was only third in receiving yards.
Speaker: It doesn't matter though when you're allowing the most sacks in college football by a wide margin in the conference. 62 sacks, worst in the country last season. Two starters return. Also bring back a guy who was on the roster last year but was not good enough to play. So you've got two guys from that offensive line plus another guy who wasn't good enough to play on the worst offensive line in football. Uh, you bring in two transfers, uh, fine. You got a guy who started, uh, at Illinois in Zachary Barliff, and then you get Kenyon McNally, uh, who's played five games for Tulane last season. I, I don't care who's out wide. I don't care who's, you know, next to or behind Grant Wilson because this offensive line proved last year that it simply is not good enough.
Speaker: to, you know, protect their guy. And yet we talk about, you know, how what is success here. And yet they prevailed. They won six football games, despite having a 10 sack game, despite having multiple eight sack games. so So I don't care who they got. It's just can can the guys up front hold?
Speaker: So I know we, we've kind of talked about the circumstances surrounding the offense and why it, I mean, if flat hasn't been good, like there's, there's not really any way around it. I will say though, I'm, I think I'm coming to realize that if Zeke likes a quarterback in this conference, I'm shorting that stock. I'm a big fan of ah the marshall go game game managers just really get me going. Someone that can control a game, he won't throw many interceptions, but he's not throwing touchdowns either. He's good for two, two 20 a game. That's my gap.
Speaker: channel oh jo and Josh Josh Allen is the opposite. Josh Allen falls into the arc. ah that that's right Josh Allen throws a lot of interceptions. My bad. My bad. Josh Allen is, you know, uh, those that don't know, I am a bills fan. Love the guy. He's a little too sexy for my taste in terms of his play style and also just, uh, cause man wants arch manning man wants arch manning.
Speaker: Oh, he's no arch manning is like, have the art to him. Like he's like, oh, get that stuff away from me. Give me like a cookout tray, Tate Rada maker. Give me that. Like that's that's what that's what really gets me. He said it gets him going. So I mean, I i love a college quarterback that just, but you know, breaks his conference records, but then gets drafted in the fifth round. Those are my guys. Man, y 'all remember Rex Grossman? That has Zeke Polermo over it. Way before my time. No, Matt, you're you're totally misreading this. Like, the Zeke Polermo prototypical quarterback is like Alex Smith. Like, that is what gets his, that's what gets him going. I'm telling, no, you were naming guys with like huge arms with like high interception ratios. No, he wants he wants a check down machine. That's what he likes.
Speaker: cannot go broke making a profit." so well tell the tell the chiefs that ah pri maho ah i'm sure they disagree with you ah so again we we talked about it um offensive line from previous years, I mean, especially last year was an absolute train wreck. I mean, trying to protect any of these guys was, I mean, impossible. And, you know, it's kind of a miracle that they got some of the numbers that they did. I mean, they ran for 153 yards per game. So they were not good at pass protection at all, but they could
Speaker: it could do a little bit on the ground and you know I single -handedly think that kept them in games. Speaking of, so Matt one of the things you talked about was ah the number of P5 transfers that they've sort of gathered around the team and like while I don't I definitely don't hate it because they needed depth. They need people who have actually played football, I mean, in a meaningful way. But what I will say is I was going through and looking at some of these guys
Speaker: Some of these guys at the P5 level that they got haven't really played football. So like Aaron Young, the new the new presumed starting running back, he has 500 yards in five years at Rutgers. ah Bryce Duke from Virginia Tech, the last two years has 128 total yards. I mean, it and it goes, same thing goes for those receivers that we kind of pointed out as well. so i I think this is going to be the true, we're taking the can you take the the hypothesis of can you take a guy off the bench at a P5 school, drop him onto a G5 program and have him do something meaningful. This is the total bleeding edge of that because I don't think I've seen
Speaker: The same number of P5 transfers come into a school that have not really played football at the same time. I mean, again, for Aaron Young to have 500 yards rushing in five seasons is nuts. And I know he probably didn't start.
Speaker: like that That's the part of it that you cannot emphasize enough. He couldn't crack the field at Rutgers. I know that there's a birthplace of college football, and they'll always have a special place in people's hearts, but let's be real, Rutgers sucks. Well, i I think I do think to play devil's advocate just a tad. I mean, I know I just trash like his his stats and stuff. The first two years, I ah guarantee he played behind Isaiah Pacheco. So you did have an NFL caliber running back in that same. That's true. Now, that's true. Now, the last three years or however long Pacheco has been in the pros, I can't make excuses for that. Like, I agree with you. They're they're not a good.
Speaker: Big Ten program, the fact that he can't crack the field on the Rutgers roster. I mean, what, Maryland's probably the only other worse ACC program. So, you know, probably one of the worst P5 programs on the East Coast in general. I mean, what else sort of comes to mind? I mean, it kind of is what it is. So,
Speaker: I don't, this was what made it really hard for me. So I kind of want to step on this a little bit and and we'll, we'll get to the defense. I mean, there were, there were fine Jason Henderson, but everybody else is kind of, the problem when you look at this team is they're not exciting on offense. Defensively, they have a couple of pieces, but defensively, They struggled to get to the quarterback, which is the exact opposite problem they had on offense. They only had 19 sacks as a team on defense last year. So the fact that you can't bank on a pass rush, you can't bank on your offensive line protecting the quarterback. And I mean, again, they ran the ball sort of effectively, but throwing the ball is how you win games. I mean, to be, to be quite frank, like if, if, if you don't run at some version of the option and you can't throw the football, it's going to be really rough on you. But.
Speaker: This is why when I saw their over under for their win total was four and a half on DraftKings, I was like, before I even kind of got to the schedule, I was like, ah I don't see, I don't see five wins on the roster or five wins with this roster. And you get to the schedule and there's a lot of like, up in the air question marks, but in conference, I don't know that I feel good picking them over any conference team, which is funny considering what you Matt said about they beat all three of our teams. Okay. But the schedule's kind of, you know,
Speaker: the The schedule is brutal. I mean, I'll say it, Georgia Southern, Georgia State were not good last year. I mean, let's let's be honest. And, you know, Louisiana was doing a quarterback carousel thing where they didn't know who was going to start for them every single week. So there were a lot of like extenuating circumstances in here. This wasn't Old Dominion beating nine win teams. This was Old Dominion. These were these were two six and six teams kind of going at it and they came out on top but it wasn't anything like oh man you can really build on this you know and i'll give me you an example and and we'll get to the defense but the only two power five wins they have are both against virginia tech they played virginia tech at home this year but again virginia tech's not been a good football program
Speaker: since Frank Beamer retired. So even that, you look at it, like I looked at that and when they when they beat them, I think it was last year, um I'll double check that, but yeah, they beat them last year, 36 to 17. But even that, when you look at it, you go, okay, that's good. and And then they immediately blow all the goodwill they have after that game. so I just don't know. Defensively, I would highlight some of these defensive linemen, but they were just so bad last year getting to the quarterback.
Speaker: i mean They weren't good ah through the air, especially I mean opposing quarterbacks almost completed 66 % of their passes against them, which again if you have seven seconds to throw the football. That's probably what's going to happen a lot of games, so they're they're going to have to try to generate some sort of pass rush in maybe an unconventional way this year, because the way that it happened last year just isn't. It's not feasible long term. So, uh, I, I agree with that. Um, you know, you look at this defense and Jason Henderson obviously stands out for obvious reasons. Uh, a two time second team, all American had 170 tackles last year. You know, again, you can rave about how good the kid is. He's going to play on Sundays, but, uh, the other 10 guys on the field are yeah ah best.
Speaker: Um, Yeah, I agree. But that front three is going to be the biggest question mark. Can they get a pass rush on the quarterback? Because obviously Jason Henderson has proved that he can four and a half s sacks last year. ah But can they get it from other places is going to be the big question. They play a lot of just looking at their schedule. They play a lot of good quarterbacks this year. And you know, if you give them time to. or the football and and make plays down the field, they will dice you up all game long. And for Ricky Ronnie, you just you can't let that happen. Headed into this year. I don't share the same feelings about Jason Henderson. I mean, he's a he's a strong linebacker. I'm really yeah I'm not going to take that away. Hundreds of tackles last year.
Speaker: Um, but I am a firm believer that tackles, uh, are very much a opportunity stat. Um, look at Carlton Marshall from Troy, uh, the all time NCAA tackle leader, Sunbelt tackle leader. What's he doing now? A month ago, he got cut by the Hamilton tiger cats of the CFL. um Jason Henderson like he he's gonna make the tackles but it's just because he's playing every snap it's not because he's an exceptional ball tracker not because he's an exceptional pass rusher he he's a like a traditional mic where he he just kind of stands in the middle of the field guys come by and he's gonna wrap him up
Speaker: Join in on the tackle. Um, he did lead the team in sacks, which is great um But four and a half coming from a middle linebacker again That's just because no one else is rushing the quarterback 15 tackles for loss is exceptional and something that I thought was very impressive um But again, no one else on that roster was doing it um for you know, looking at the schedule the only win that The only game I like Old Dominion in on this lineup is Georgia State. um And for that reason, I shoot man, three, four wins feels reasonable. ah And you know we we've said that about some of the other schools. um
Speaker: that we've previewed up to this point, but like with Georgia state, for example, where we were, you know, projecting in the four or five range and you felt like, dang, you know, this is under, under performance. This is a rebuild. Like this is just going to be a normal old Dominion year. Um, there. right Remember they only beat an FCS team by one point last year against A and &M commerce So like they're they're gonna stick around in a game. They shouldn't at some point ah They're gonna get you know lose a game very tightly that they you know probably should have won, but this is a four three to five win team at best and
Speaker: and that's yeah that's okay. like we we've been taught the The whole motif of this section has just been, that's okay, it's Old Dominion. I think they start the season 0 and 3 and then that six game stretch in the middle and between their two buys, I mean that is just brutal. At Bowling Green, at Coastal, Coastal but will be coming off of a buy. At Georgia State. Home against Texas State. Five day turnaround to play Georgia Southern. At App. That's brutal. If they go one in five in that stretch, I'd be impressed. Like like legitimately. Because I mean Bowling Green, you know, everybody loves to knock the Mac. They're a decent football team.
Speaker: And, you know, I've heard stories about their stadium. It can get pretty crazy. Uh, you mean that, that's a game that's interesting. Coastal. There's a lot of questions about them. We'll see what they can do. Georgia state kind of the same thing. What worries me about those two games though, for old Dominion is both coastal and Georgia state are at home and they're both coming off of buys. They're going to be well rested. They're going to be ready to play. That's not a great formula or to McLeod comes to, um, to Norfolk. I think that's a horrible situation. Um, or for old Dominion, Georgia Southern. I think they're going to be better this year. We'll see what their quarterback situation looks like. And then app. I mean, again, we talked about them a couple of weeks ago. They're the, they're the favorite in the East. They're the favorite overall in the Sunbelt right now.
Speaker: Um, Joey Aguilar's preseason player of the year, I could really see them going 0 and 6 in that stretch. Like honestly. I mean, when I look at this, I really only have three games that I think that they have a coin flip chance of winning. And again, they could catch one of these other teams on a, like a bad weekend and pull an upset. I mean, they've done it before. But the three games that I kind of had circled and the reason I took the under I was looking at Bowling Green i mostly because I don't I don't really know anything about Bowling Green ah Georgia State ZQ we talked about it last week and all the reasons why they would have a shot and honestly November 23rd at home against Marshall because if Cole Pennington still starting in game 11 and they're running an air raid
Speaker: ah I think Cole Pennington could single -handedly throw you out of a game. so you know as As untalented, they they're kind of mirror images of each other, Marshall and Old Dominion a little bit, which is like questionable quarterback play, not really great weapons offensively, defensively pretty good, but nothing you know that's going to knock your socks off. what I really can't understate, and i and I hate beating up on him so much, but I really can't understate how bad Cole Pennington was last year. If he makes a huge jump, great for him.
Speaker: I looked the other day, zero touchdown to six interception ratio last year in the games he played. So if if he's putting up those numbers and he's still starting in game 11, anybody has a shot to beat Marshall at that rate, if you're turning the ball over that much. So before we sort of move off of Old Dominion, I said the over -under was four and a half wins. Are we all taking the under if you if you had to?
Speaker: Cautiously yes I just don't I just don't see where five wins are coming from I think last year they had a little bit more of a favorable schedule this year and and they pulled the upset against Virginia Tech which and my That's not guaranteed to happen every single time. So if they don't beat Virginia Tech last year, they don't make a bowl game. So I think that's that's a very real reality for them this year. if they don't If they don't squeak out some of these upsets like they did last year, I just don't i don't see it. So um I'm taking the under as well. A four and a half. So let's transition here. Let's get to Arkansas State.
Speaker: ah The Red Wolves. This is a real make or break season for Butch Jones, I think. And i I say that because he's had a couple years now. This is now going into his fourth season. He's had four years to kind of build this team up. He's had, at least on paper, some positive recruiting classes. You've got the reigning freshman of the sunbelt freshman of the year and Jalen Raynor at the quarterback spot. The defense
Speaker: has really gotten better. I mean, at least, you know, we haven't seen them take the field yet this year, but you go back and look, I mean, 2021, they gave up 38 .6 points per game. 2022, they gave up 31 .4. Last year, they gave up 30 .4. They're getting better, but just only incrementally each year. And I just think, you know, he he he's coming off of a, you know, three and nine record last year.
Speaker: Uh, Is that? No, six and seven weird. Why? Why did they just have it at three and nine down here? I don't know. Anyway, he's eleven and twenty six at Arkansas State. Again, defensively, they've been an absolute mess, um but they've got a couple. I like their their returning pieces on offense. They've got a pair of really good players in the offensive line that have all conference recognition, and you've got Jalen Rainer. So he's the best quarterback they've had.
Speaker: since I think Justice Hanson played there. um So how Matt, how do you how do you feel about Arkansas State, at least as a whole, before we kind of jump into individual spots? I think they're going to be really good. ah to To be honest, I mean, God, you return 10 starters on offense. but Let's start there. Sunbelt freshman of the year, Jalen Rainer, your leading rusher and Jacquez Cross. ah Corey Rucker has been a great receiver for them the last couple of years. Left, went to South Carolina, thought he was big time.
Speaker: Didn't work out of South Carolina, ended up right back in Jonesboro. Emmanuel Stevenson is a really good tight end for them. Good pass catcher, good blocker as well. um You got returners on the offensive line um that that have that are ready to make an impact like Malik and Thomas, who was second team all conference last year. um Yeah, defensively, I agree they have to get better. But that jump from 22 or 21 to 22 was big. but That seven point swing from 38 to 31. That's big. um You know, if you can get that number to 27 this year, I think you're in great shape with the offense that you have. um And obviously, you know, we'll dive deep into each position in the schedule um as we go forward. ah But the schedule is is favorable.
Speaker: for them. I think it's one that that paints a really good picture for Butch Jones. And I think that each year he's been there. He's gotten a little bit better and a little bit better. Got to a bowl game last year, which I think was a huge experience for for that program. um And I'm really, again, they're they're one of the Cajuns' big rivals, so I'm not supposed to like Arkansas State. And to ah to a certain degree, I guess I don't. um But as an unbiased journalist that covers the Sunbelt Conference, I am super excited to see what they do.
Speaker: I am exceptionally tired of hearing Arkansas State hype. This is a program that directly contradicts what we just talked about when we said, what is success at Old Dominion? This is a program that had nine straight winning seasons before Butch Jones and he has done squat. I am exhausted of it. I'm tired. Jalen Rayner is an exceptional quarterback and they return an elite elite amount like we are talking among the best in the nation. Number of starters, especially offensively guys that have ability to play football at a high level. They had a program worst in the yards allowed per game and points allowed per game last season. This is a team that consistently underperforms
Speaker: what is like what is ought to be done by Arkansas State. And I am just so beyond tired of hearing the hype. What is success for Arkansas State is not six wins. Butch Jones should have been fired before he got a chance to discover Jalen Rayner last season. And he's lucky he did because that guy saved him two years on his contract. Yeah, I disagree. I don't I've heard the hype for three since Butch Jones was hired. I've heard the hype. What changed? The only thing that's changed is that he's keeping a couple extra guys from a team that last year went six and seven with with one of if not the worst defenses in the conference. What's changed? yeah But you also but but but you have to look at the extenuating circumstances that he took control of.
Speaker: You're talking about an Arkansas State program that in 2019 and 2020 dealt with the coach losing his wife to cancer. They won eight games. But hold on. Hold on. Let me finish. Then right after you go through that, COVID comes in and slaps you in the face. You go four and seven. Blake Anderson unexpectedly leaves to take the Utah State job. Nobody saw that coming. um And not only did he take the Utah State job, he took his card and quarterback with him. He took Logan Bonner with him to Utah State. So Butch Jones came in and said,
Speaker: Okay, now what? And he's kind of rebuilt the program, like completely. So, I mean, yeah, sure. Is 5 and 19 in those first two years acceptable? No. And and I think, to your point, I think Butch Jones was absolutely on the hot seat last year until he discovered Jalen Rainer. I think in today's college football, and I'm even guilty of of doing this, You gotta give a coach three years. You gotta give a coach three full seasons before you start making decisions. um Now look, if you go three years where you, if they wouldn't have gone six and seven last year, say it would have been two and 10, three and nine, four and eight. and Yeah, Butch Jones is getting fired. He's getting fired.
Speaker: but You took such a big jump last year and then on top of that big jump, you returned 10 of your 11 starters on offense. Like, there's reason to have hype around Arkansas State this year. But I just feel like there has been this hype since Butch Jones came there. And the hype exists around this team about their offense. Mind you, an offense that, wow, ah again, had stars and like hung 77 on Texas State, who was the most surprising team in the Sun Belt last season.
Speaker: They also hung only three on Memphis and three, i albeit a very good Troy defense. So I will say that was before Jalen Rayner came in because early in the season, they had a transfer that I can't remember who it was. JT Shrout. Yeah. started at quarterback for them and he was terrible and the team wasn't good and then I think it was the Coastal Carolina game that they plugged Jalen Rayner. I thought it was Southern Miss. It might have been. No, it was either later in the season. Rayner took the job against UMass. I guess UMass. OK.
Speaker: Right. so weak So I mean, think about it. Think about it from that perspective is they basically spent four weeks kind of toiling away doing nothing. Now, I will say I kind of sit in the middle of where you guys are on the Butch Jones in the program. Is Butch Jones, do I think Butch Jones is a good coach? I'm kind of leaning towards no. ah I mean, if you go back and look at kind of his track record as a coach, I mean, his really only success was taking the Cincinnati team that was really good with Brian Kelly and sort of maintaining that and then that that sort of.
Speaker: transitioned into the Tennessee job where he flat wasn't good and he's come in and he had you know two really bad years but here before finding Jalen Rayner last year. So I think I'm kind of in the middle where I think they're going to be a fun team to watch this year for sure. I mean we we pointed out 10 starters back um you know you get Jaquez Cross at running back he had 716 yards rushing last year in an offense that famously we we asked the question i think in previews last year are they ever going to decide to become sort of a 50 -50 split team because just throwing the ball all the time thing wasn't working and it didn't work with Shroud
Speaker: ah until Jaylen Raynor came in. So i I'm kind of in the middle of you guys here. I think they're going to be a fun team. I don't think they're going to be a serious competitor for the West. ah Unless, caveat, unless the defense takes like a real, real step forward. I don't think they can allow 30 points a game on defense again and and make in and make headway on the Louisiana, Texas State, you know, Troy's still hanging around. So I mean, I just I think they're going to be a really fun young team to watch.
Speaker: But I don't consider them like a real, until I see it on Saturdays, I don't consider them a real contender for the West or anything. I just think they're going to be a fun team, kind of like Texas State was last year. So that's sort of where I sit on it. ah Let's talk about the offensive line. We kind of talked about weapons with, you know, Courtney Jackson, Regan Ely, Cory Rucker, you know, Emmanuel Stevenson. Let's talk about the offensive line though. So you get, Let's see, I'm looking at my notes here. You get Bayer back at center, who was a first team All Sun Belt last year. You get Thomas at right tackle, who was a second team All Sun Belt last year. I think they're going to have a pretty stout offensive line. And when you add sort of Raynor's ability to scramble to that, I think, again, I think there's a lot of reasons to be, you know, bullish on the offensive outlook for this team.
Speaker: and And I already kind of said what my concerns were overall with the team. But Matt, is there anybody that stands out kind of on the offensive line? I mean, I know I and it talked about those two guys, but where do you kind of see the offensive line heading this year? Do you think it's going to be a ah major positive for them? See, I think I kind of agree with Phil Steele when he says it looks like they could be one of the best offensive lines in the Sunbelt. Uh, you return a ton of experience, like you mentioned, uh, with, with Thomas and Bayer, you get a transfer in from Missouri and EJ Ndama -Ogar, uh, who is just a massive human being at 6 -3, 3 -35, uh, projected to start at right guard by Phil Steele. Mackay Butler has had 25 starts in his last two seasons. I think that that's big, uh, for them upfront. And you brought up Jalen Rainers.
Speaker: Scrambling ability the way that he's able to to just extend plays and and find time ah To get a receiver open is just gonna be huge for them and this offensive line again you return three key starters um Noah Smith even had some starts last season six starts last season one at Center five at left tackle I think that experience factor is gonna pay huge dividends for what is still yeah I mean, if we're being honest, it's still a fairly young offense. I mean, Jalen Rainer is a true sophomore. You're running backs a junior. you're Two of your three starting wide receivers are juniors. You've got a young, still a fairly young offense. um And so I think that that experience factor up front is going to pay huge.
Speaker: So Zeke, I'm going to turn you loose when it comes to the defensive side of the ball. But before we get to that, because I mean, we all kind of have the same knocks on them. But offensively, what do you kind of foresee out of this team? Because, you know, you were super harsh on Butch Jones in the previous couple of years. Where do you kind of see this offense sitting as a unit? I mean, they're going to score a ton of points. I just think it's as is ah this This is a more general ah i know philosophy I hold on football. It's harder to be consistent on all offense than it is on defense. I believe that. So even if you have the highest flying offense, and I would say this is probably true for most sports, ah even if you have the highest flying offense that is capable of going and putting up 38 on any given week,
Speaker: You're yeah like some day it's just not going to work. Someday you know what? You are going to be held to 14. Someday you're going to be held to 17. And as we're talking about in like two seconds, that's not nearly enough considering what this defense is going to do. There's going to be a game this year. There could be two games this year where Arkansas State is the highest scoring team in all of college football. Like just there could that's feasible. They could go out and put 58 out. That's not going to shock me. But over the course of the 12 game season, you're only going to have two of those. And you're going to get a 40 in here. You're going to you might get a couple 30s. But just how football works is you're not going to get that every week. And, you know, you you can be among the highest scoring offenses in college football. But if you can't stop a runny nose, it's not going to matter.
Speaker: So let me let me kind of tee you up Zeke on the defensive side of the ball. Let me drop a couple stats and then I'll let you talk about it. So last year gave up 30 .4 points per game, 444 yards of total defense per week. Pass defense is where they were at their absolute worst. And you know you look at 260 passing yards allowed per game, you think, oh, that's not that bad, except for the fact that opposing quarterbacks were completing almost 69 % of their passes.
Speaker: which is like elite, elite NFL quarterback completion numbers. And you were getting that every single week against Arkansas State. So I know the defense has been such a an Achilles heel for what should be a fun offense, high flying, you know, scrambling quarterback team.
Speaker: what you know is there ze Is there any hope that they eventually bring it down to 25, 27 points per game this season and and keep their offense competitive by doing that? i It's hard for me to say so ah just because what is their greatest strength on offense is probably what's going to kill them the most defensively in that they're returning six starters. A lot of what we would consider their best defensive players ah from both a statistical and talent standpoint are coming back. ah Leading sack getters back, leading tackle getters back.
Speaker: uh leader in past breakups is back so i mean that's that's first second and third level right there your your best players at each level are back uh i i Something I want to point out is like you mentioned the in it's an absolutely ridiculous pass completion allowed ah and you know, juxtaposed with a, you know, still high, but not exceptionally high ah yardage allowed through the air. That's because they were in situations. They were in games where teams were just not throwing it.
Speaker: because I didn't have to, they could just run it out. ah ah I'm looking up and down there their game logs, I'm seeing three games where opponents didn't even complete more than 20 passes. I'm seeing at least five 40 plus carry games. and So I don't want the yardage um and past completion statistics to be conflated for, oh, well, they're just allowing checkdowns. Oh, they're just allowing dumps. No, they're just not a getting thrown on because teams don't need to throw. i Some things I do like, I think that this is a team that
Speaker: ah in spurts was good at getting to the quarterback. um I think they they have solid pass rushers, particularly Karen Crawford, six and a half sacks last year led the team. um you know for For a team leader, you would maybe want that a little higher, but at that point you're just nitpicking. um
Speaker: It's just like like I said, it's what is going to serve this team incredibly well offensively is going to be what prevents them from doing much more than six wins. and They just it's the same guys who who did they bring in I mean they brought in guys they promoted guys But no, you know again, this is based off of what Phil steals got In his book about you know who he projects to start but no one there jumps off the page
Speaker: So Matt, I want to ask you this, ah and and I'll kind of tee you up with the stats. So we talked about ah just a few minutes ago when we were talking about Old Dominion, how few sacks they generated last year. Last year, Old Dominion only generated 19 sacks ah defensively. Arkansas State was not much better. They only generated 24. Now, I will say, Phil Steele notes that they have seven transfers in alone on the defensive line. So at the very least, they're going to have depth, they're going to have bodies.
Speaker: Do you see this eventually becoming a plus for them this year? Because we talked about the high completion percentage that they're allowing to oppose in quarterbacks. And from a run stopping perspective, I mean, they they gave up 184 yards per game on the ground. And Zeke noted all the all the times that guys just had 25 plus carries on them. so Defensive line, I think it starts there. Do you see them being an improved unit there this year, both from a pass rush and run stopping perspective? I would like to think so. um I mean, again, you you bring back a guy.
Speaker: you Adam Hardman was a guy who had 11 starts last season. I think he's somebody that you can look to to improve. Nate Marty had 10 starts as well. So it's an experienced group. um And I think that that helps. But the thing is, is you always have a question mark with things like this because, oh, they bring back six starters. That should help. ah Six starters also contributed to giving up 30 and a half points per game. So it's one of those questions like, does it really help or would you have been better off cleaning house and maybe starting over with the defense? um And that's a question that can only be answered once they step on the field against Central Arkansas on the 31st.
Speaker: But I do think that they improve. I think they also get some help from their linebackers. Charles Wilkes is the guy that I look at. ah He was a fourth team Sunbelt guy last year, 89 tackles. He had one and a half sacks, six and a half tackles for loss. I think he's a guy that could step up in in the pass rush game. um' I really like this group. Now, ah again, like we talked about off the top, going from thirty point four points per game if they can get that number down to like twenty seven twenty six I think you're in really good shape um but I'm gonna leave it as a question mark on this defense um you got a new d you've got a defensive coordinator that you know it's his fourth year at Arkansas State he's been okay I haven't exactly lit the world on fire
Speaker: Um, so, you know, again, we'll see how quickly they can, they can get off the blocks, but, uh, yeah, there there's some experience in that front group that I'm happy about. I'll say this, something i I hadn't seen the, what was it, eight defensive line transfers in. Something I do like is the trend in defensive line play is depth over talent. Obviously, like a superstar pass rusher is going to supersede all. ah But the trend that I've observed is that if you've got six guys that are ready to go,
Speaker: ah Instead of you know just running your four starters, yeah that has yielded results ah is what I've observed. so and Like I mentioned, I like the pass rush here, ah but the secondary is just going to get diced.
Speaker: Yeah, so ah we talked about, or Matt talked about the line the linebackers a little bit. They do add two transfers at linebacker with Kyle Taylor and Marvin Ham. um So maybe they have a little bit more depth there and don't have to rely on Wilks as much. um But, you know, should should help with run defense at the very least, ah just getting some more bodies kind of in the mix. And defensive back wise in the secondary, I just, I really don't feel good about it. Like even with the players that they brought in, I just don't know that it's going to be enough to kind of shore up the incredibly... that This is why I emphasize sort of the pass rushes. It's all going to start up front. I don't think the guys on the back end of this defense are locking anyone down.
Speaker: So you absolutely need some of those guys up front, you know, you again, seven transfers in. You need to find some sort of mix and match combination to get to the quarterback because 24 sacks and having the the secondary that this team does is just simply not going to cut it at this level. Like yeah if you are running out a similar defense to last year, you're going to get similar results in the win -loss column IMO, you know, just my opinion. But defensive back wise, you get Trabi and Thomas back at safety. You had two ah transfers who were going to play in the secondary and one of them is Adrian Cole out of FIU. He's going to play free safety. ah You get Jordan Mahoney out of UMass.
Speaker: Maybe he helps out, but it's UMass. Yeah, whoop -de -doo. Uh, so Zeke, is there, and I know I kind of asked this about the defense as a whole, but I want to boil it right down to the secondary. Is there is there any hope, or does it solely lie on the shoulders of the defensive line getting pressure, or somebody on this defense getting pressure to help it out? i I'm not going to pretend that I watched FIU or UMassTape last year. So i it's it's certainly possible. um But all indication to me is that unless this, again, very rejuvenated pass rush can really turn it around, I just, again,
Speaker: I didn't watch the UMass film. I didn't watch the FIU film. I'm not going to be embarrassed by that. but So so it's tough it's possible, but my my gut says it's unlikely. So let's let's take a look at the schedule. Matt mentioned that it was favorable. I do agree. ah Their win total for this season, according to DraftKings, is five and a half. I think I like the over based on how solid the schedule is. um Matt
Speaker: I'm going to talk about individual games and the reason that I like them to get the over on the wins here, but do you like, you know, we talked about how strong the offense is. We talked about how favorable the schedule is. Do you like them to get six wins at least this year? Oh yeah. Oh yeah. I mean, realistically, if you look at their schedule right now, there are two games that I can say they will not win.
Speaker: Here's two. It's Michigan, it's Iowa State. you you You won't win those games. But Central Arkansas, Tulsa, South Owl, Texas State, Southern Miss, Troy, Louisiana, Georgia State, ULM, Old Dominion. Those other 10 games, there's not one that I can definitively say Arkansas State won't win it. Like if they win 70%, of the toss -up games for seven and five. As Jones continues improving, he stays in Jonesboro. Hell, they probably give him a contract extension.
Speaker: That's they probably signed him to an extension. That's Zeke's worst nightmare. He wakes up in a cold sweat thinking about Butch Jones putting his ink on that paper. Here's the thing, Matt's right. They're gonna have like an exceptional record. This is a, I'm not gonna say a cakewalk of a schedule, but like you start with Central Arkansas and Tulsa. Those are two should wins. Then you go Michigan to Iowa State, should should be two losses there, two and two, but he's he's right. As you look at the Sunbelt schedule,
Speaker: Everything feels winnable because. Again, I'm low on the Sunbelt as a whole this year. um You know, I you'd imagine they'd probably lose to Texas State, but last year they beat him and hung 77. So who's to say in that regard? I am a big proponent and this starts a larger conversation that we will cut for time. um I'm a big proponent in, you know, there's being a good football team and there's winning games and they're distinct. ah Winning football games, again, is enough to win you a contract extension. I don't believe it should be. Being a good football team should be what wins you an extension. They're going to win seven, probably more games.
Speaker: They're about seven games. Bush Jones may well get his extension, um and it's going to be praised as we'll look at the the improvement that he's had. They went from eight and five to four and seven in his first year, so it's a regression that is directly correlated with him. Then went two and 10, then won six games, then won seven. is goingnna The story's gonna be, look how we turn this program around. Nine straight winning seasons before he got there, two of the worst seasons before in program history when he gets there. ah a Yeah, it's gonna hurt to watch because Matt's right, it's gonna happen. But it's it's gonna hurt to watch.
Speaker: Well, i I like them to hit the over on wins. I will say, I don't know that there is another, so and and we haven't covered all the Sunbelt teams yet, but I don't know that there is an easier stretch to end your season on. than they have. So they play at Louisiana November 9th. That's the last tough game of their of their schedule. They end the season at Georgia State on November 16th, ULM and Old Dominion at home back to back weeks. If they are teetering on the edge of making a bowl game,
Speaker: it let's say that for some reason things go totally wrong they have three wins after the Louisiana game they're making a ball game like those those three at the end of the season like we just talked about Old Dominion they're gonna be praying hey ah you know down on their knees with their hands clasped together for every win that they get this year ULM we've talked about is the a huge rebuilding job like ah Bryant Vincent has his work cut out for him. Georgia State, another rebuilding job where
Speaker: Sean Elliott left late and Del McGee's kind of scrambling to bring guys in and people are exiting the program, things like that. Correct. All three of those teams are kind of hot messes in various forms and fashions. So I think, I think they're going to have at least four wins by November 16th. And I think they're going to end the season with at least seven total. So, and they could be, they have the chance to be even better than that. It's just, We really haven't seen the progression out of the defense. Like we would have wanted to point and say, Hey, here's another step they can take. We're all kind of. um The breaks a little bit on that, but offensively there's a lot to like here, but Jones, you know, say what you want about him. And I have, trust me. He, they do have continuity now. I mean, 10 starters back on offense defense. You just hope they get back to somewhat being respectable.
Speaker: And, and you're looking, you know, down the barrel of potentially winning seven, eight games in a, in a conference that, you know, Zeke, we talked about, or you mentioned it is kind of in the middle of a down. And, you know, there's a lot of teams that are new head coaches, new rosters in the, but in the process of rebuilding. There's much fewer true contenders, I think in the conference this year than there have been in years past. So I think there's like. three true contenders to win the whole thing in the whole conference. So until I'm proven otherwise, that's kind of what I'm going to go with. Do we have sort of any closing thoughts on either of the teams covered today? And if not, Matt, you can go ahead and plug whatever you need to, and then we'll swing it over to Zeke and then close out with myself.
Speaker: I'm looking forward to to watching both of these teams in 2024. I think both of them took a step forward last year. And now the question is going to be, can they continue to build on that? um And you know we talked about Arkansas State's offense being the the fun offense like Texas State was last year. Look, I think i think fans in Jonesboro would take the season that Texas State had last year if if they're Arkansas State. i think they would I think they would not have qualms about that whatsoever. um You can find me on social media at megasmat .com Also go to YouTube um and subscribe to my YouTube channel at megasmat .com I'm going to start doing some college football 25 live streams. ah Disclaimer, I'm not this world beater.
Speaker: um um I'm average at best, but ah if you want to watch a guy yell at the TV a lot, then I'm your entertainment.
Speaker: I'm on Twitter at Zeke Palermo, Z -E -K -E -P -A -L -E -R -M -O, not on YouTube, at least not yet. um I don't have any products to plug, toss it over to Brian.
Speaker: Yeah, as always, you can find the show on Twitter at warm weather fans. As I said, closing out last week, we will have Phil Steele on ah before the season starts. We're currently in the middle of getting his availability all worked out. Feel free if you have questions for Phil about a certain team, about the conference as a whole, shoot those over to us. You can either tweet them at us ah or send them over to warmweatherfans at gmail .com. You can find me on Twitter personally at WatchTheStone. I'm gonna umm going to go against Matt with a little bit of what he said. um I'm going to full disclosure, not looking forward to watching Old Dominion this year.
Speaker: Oh, I don't think they play a particularly fun brand of football to watch. ah That's fair. That's fair. So that's that's but I'm as interested in watching them as I am Marshall this year ah and Cole Pennington. Um, so next week we will be covering the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and the South Alabama Jaguars. So get ready for those. Matt's got a lot of thoughts about Major Applewhite Squad. He's already kind of been dropping hints throughout previous episodes. So this has been another episode of Warm Weather Fans, the Stunt Bell Podcast.
