SI414: The Hidden Risks Beneath the Treasury Market ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine the warning signs emerging beneath seemingly calm markets, from extreme single-stock moves and commodity shortages to growing strains in the U.S. Treasury market. They explore how leveraged hedge funds and basis trades have become increasingly important to Treasury liquidity, and why market plumbing can matter as much as price signals. The conversation then turns to the evolution of trend following, comparing different approaches to signals and position sizing, the benefits of combining methodologies, and why short-term trend strategies face structural challenges. Finally, Mark reflects on the legacy of quantitative trading pioneer Victor Niederhoffer. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE [https://dunncapital.com/DUNN%2050-Year%20Book-TTU] ----- Follow Niels on Twitter [https://twitter.com/toptraderslive], LinkedIn [https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen], YouTube [https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive] or via the TTU website [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/]. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/Ultimate]. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/10-reasons-shownotes]. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/]. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com [info@toptradersunplugged.com%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes [https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/reviewttu] or Spotify [https://open.spotify.com/show/2OnOvLbIV3AttbFLxuoaBW] so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter [https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski]. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction and summer reflections 01:42 - Warning signs and rumblings beneath the markets 07:06 - Extreme single-stock moves and hidden risk 10:09 - Copper, inventories and commodity squeezes 13:08 - Oil markets and the danger of disappearing buffer stocks 14:51 - August trend following performance 16:01 - Why market uncertainty could create new trends 20:37 - The Treasury buyback program and bond market liquidity 27:10 - Is the Treasury quietly stabilizing long-term yields? 31:56 - The plumbing problem inside the U.S. Treasury market 36:28 - Hedge funds, basis trades and leverage 41:40 - Can Treasuries still