Transcript
Speaker: Welcome everybody back to Warm Weather Fans of Sunbelt Podcast. My name is Brian Stone, joined once again this week by Zeke Palermo. And we are here to talk about the second place team in the Sunbelt East from last season, the Old Dominion Monarchs, even though they probably wouldn't appreciate the fact that I brought up they finished second.
Speaker: um Before we get into last season, what's going to happen this coming year, I'm going to throw it to you. How's it going, man? uh it's going i'm having a great time in the uh first 10 minutes of the wizard of oz as you can see very monotone very chrome for me then obviously the twisters happened uh for you already so uh enjoy your travels follow the road of course um beware the flying monkeys uh that's my best advice for you um and i hope to see you there soon in the world of uh technicolor
Speaker: Two things real quick. Number one, I think you're just keeping with the theme because you're kind of ODU's colors right now. You're kind of like a gray and a gray and navy. Also, i i recently showed my five-year-old Wicked for the first time.
Speaker: She likes Wicked a lot more than she liked The Wizard of Oz. And I was like, I get it. like it Well, they've done they've not done like a rendition of The Wizard of Oz since it was Judy Garland. They've not modernized it.
Speaker: No, that's not one that you touch. like that's That's like remaking Casablanca Gone with the Wind or something. like That's just not a movie. you know We don't need a Godfather remake. We got it the first time. It's on film. We got it. All right.
Speaker: So... Again, we are here to talk about the Monarchs, Old Dominion. We'll go ahead and lead with this. Both of us were wrong last year going into the season. We were very skeptical of Ricky Ronnie's track history.
Speaker: Although, if you're not an old domin if you're an Old Dominion fan, put your hands over your ears for the next 10 seconds. going to read some things off. ah The reason we were down on him was because, again...
Speaker: his He was like a career under 500 coach going into last season. He had went six and seven in 2021, three and nine in 2022, six and seven in 23, and then five and seven in 24 before going 10 and three last year with Colton Joseph.
Speaker: We knew Colton Joseph was good going into the season. we did did not ah i think properly weight their ah weapons that they had the receiver position. I think it was hard to do just because Trey Brown, Ja'Cory Thomas, um Abdul Rahim Gladding, all of these guys were transfers and then ultimately one and done with the program. None of these guys returned heading into this year, including Joseph, who is now in um Wisconsin, Madison, starting you know, presumably starting for the Badgers, ah given the way that they pursued him in the offseason.
Speaker: So, Yeah, again, i guess apologies for underrating them last year, but we had nothing to go off of. And ODU fans online talked like they were JMU and that we were silly for doubting this team that hadn't finished over 500. Yeah, mean...
Speaker: yeah i mean Ultimately, our assessment was wrong. I think you bring up a good point about the guys that they brought up from like JUCO, who had been non fact or had been excellent at that level, but had no not just FBS, but any NCAA pedigree to speak of. And so um I think we...
Speaker: I guess it'll be time will tell whether we leaned too hard into the narrative and like, or if these guys were truly like the cream of the crop and they got the three best guys they could have.
Speaker: um I think Gladding was already on the roster, but like they added, um, It was Trey Kwon Jones, Trey Brown, yeah, and Ja'Cory Thomas. yeah Those were their three like big JUCO additions.
Speaker: And then Naeem Abdulrahim Gladding, I believe, was already on the roster doing special team stuff. um Time will tell whether or not like we, whether or not this was like a one time thing, whether they hit all of the lotto tickets.
Speaker: um But I guess like as we retrospect, that's all that matters was that they hit. And then something that I, upon reflection of last season and listening to like a recap of last season, something that went massively understated.
Speaker: because primarily Colton Joseph was so electric, how dang good this defense was. As we get into it, like some of it feels possibly unsustainable. I think we talked about that with ah Marshall where they just had like insane turnover numbers or Arkansas State late last year where they had a bazillion sacks like I don't know how necessarily sustainable it is, but part of what made this old dominion team so good is that it had like an upper tier across the country defense. Statistically 18.5 off opponent points per game was 14th best in the country. And yeah,
Speaker: I don't think that was talked enough about and for good reason. I it was the Colton Joseph show. He made that team click, um ran like this Haynes King type thing. Like they did at Georgia tech. Obviously that's going to fall. We believe to Quinn Hennigle.
Speaker: um And I think you and I both kind of have our doubts on how well he'll be able to fill that role. um But I, I will say i of the, cause we've,
Speaker: We've done James Madison now, as you're hearing this, you've probably, we've probably not released the James Madison episode, but you and I have previewed. I feel as good about the old dominion defense as I've felt about any group from any team in the conference thus far. They they retained a lot.
Speaker: um And I think Ricky Ronnie, at least for this season, bought a lot of temporary points for me in terms of talent identification. um He's going to have to sustain that over the next couple of years to like buy long-term reputation.
Speaker: But as I'll say throughout this episode, offensive and defensively, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt this season with a lot of the, um again, non like brand name talent that he brought in.
Speaker: Yeah, I mean, defensively, they were easily one of the top units in the country last year. I mean, they gave up, like you said, 18 and a half points per game, 332 total yards per game. I mean, this is outside of JMU, who, like you said, we've already previewed. This is one of the few teams that was under 350.
Speaker: three fifty per game, I would say, as far as yardage allowed. Right. So I will jump in the yardage total. And again, this this kind of hints to um if we want to read the tea leaves a little bit into why I worry about the sustainability of the defense.
Speaker: um They were 78 in yards per point, meaning teams were gaining a ton of yards, but not really converting them into points. Other teams that were in, and I don't have the exact yards per point number in front of me, but teams that were in that similar range were uh georgia southern and south alabama uh as well as southern miss actually we're all in ah a bit of a clump and like as i talk about south alabama and southern miss those are not the defenses that you or georgia southern that you want to replicate uh no yeah and again this is reading the tea leaves points per game is ultimately the only thing that matters but as we look forward it's like me it's possible it's possible that that this was a coming together of good circumstances
Speaker: yeah Again, the talent's there, and they've put on production, but there are a few other things. The other defensive like warning sign that I have, of note, no team saw kickers kick worse against them than Old Dominion last year.
Speaker: Kickers on field goal attempts were about 50% on field goals last year, worst in the country of any FBS team. Again, how much does that matter? Not a ton. They only have like two games where that would have won. Everything was a blowout in one direction or the other.
Speaker: um But those are the two things that as we talk about the defense, um but they're retaining their defensive coordinator and they're routine retaining some of the best defensive guys. So i this is me saying I'll have a reason to say we could have seen this coming um if it all falls apart, but I don't necessarily think it will.
Speaker: Yeah, the only game, i mean, again, going back to 2025, the only game that would have been tilted one way or the other based on the kicking was ah Appalachian State, ah which was 24-21, win for Old Dominion. ah You talked about it a little bit. It was like when they won, they won huge. I mean, it was like you know They blew out Virginia Tech, which I think ultimately probably led to James Franklin getting that job.
Speaker: ah Coastal, who, I mean, they hadn't ah put Samari Collier in yet, but as much as we liked Samari Collier last year, he's not making up a 40-point deficit at that point.
Speaker: And then they they lose two games. I mean, we talked about this before we started recording, but it's like they lost two games at Marshall and James Madison by a combined, I think it was 105 to 51.
Speaker: They got outscored, and we had talked about it in the Marshall episode. was like just bad turnover luck. I mean, just giving the ball away at will, ah you know, Marshall outscored.
Speaker: outdid them in the turnover category plus five so it's like that's not going to happen every week but then the jmu game comes along that is the true test of the season i mean it's like if odu wins that game they're kind of in the driver's seat i mean they they need they would have needed jmu to lose one more time to kind even it up and take the the tiebreaker but They are very neck and neck going into halftime of that game. And then I think the, the stat was like, Jamie, you had allowed 10 yards of offense to ODU in the second half of that game total, which is insane. ah The amount of like clamp down that, that Jamie you had, and then they won out the rest of the season wins over app. Like I said, ULM Troy, 33 to nothing went over Troy and who ultimately went to the Sunbelt title game. I know the West wasn't as good as the East was last year, but 33 to nothing was like a yeah true beat down, beat down Georgia Southern ah in Paulson and then, ah you know, beat Georgia State at home to end their season. So, I mean, 10 and three, when win the Cure Bowl over USF, um you know, very successful season. there's There's really nothing that you can kind of poke holes in other than the the two games between
Speaker: Marshall and JMU, but it's like, okay, they weren't good they weren't as good as a team that made the the college football playoff. It happens. like that's not That's not anything to hang your head about. I do think as we sort of transition into talking about the offense, I think the I can't remember you texted me this at one point or told me this when we were recording an episode. You're like, I think the media at large is approaching ODU as if they still have Colton Joseph.
Speaker: Yes, that is that is not the case. And so we we are not trying to make the same mistakes that we made last year with regards to Old Dominion as far as underrating them. But I've said this on previous episodes as well, like live.
Speaker: I just have doubts that Hennicle is the level of pastor that Colton Joseph was because the thing that separated Joseph from, again, no, no shade to these guys, but there are levels to quarterback play in the Sunbelt. It's like the reason he's different from a Samari Collier or a lunch Winfield or whatever. And it and was clearly in that tier with like Alonzo Barnett and Braylon Braxton and Jalen Rayner wasn't the path. We're the passing numbers.
Speaker: the The running was icing on the cake at that point, but how efficient he was throwing the football and that he wasn't turnover prone, except for, again, the Marshall game in Indiana.
Speaker: It was like, okay, like, yes, we can, we can definitely work with this. And, I have them taking a ah like a small step back because I don't think that Hennical is going to ultimately be as efficient of a passer as Joseph was. And I don't feel like that that's a crazy thing to say. i mean, maybe people online will get it like upset about it, but I just feel like...
Speaker: Listen, we've seen Hennekel. He played in 2024 against Arkansas State. He was very run heavy. He was not super ultra efficient with like throwing the football. And then he played in the Cure Bowl last year and it was like, yeah, it's great. You won 24 to 10.
Speaker: But in the amount that you played, you completed almost 43% of your passes. like those That's not going to get it done on a weekly basis. You're going to run into teams that can game plan for you being able to run the football, which, I mean, we even saw it. I know we have different teams coming into this year, but you saw it even with Colton Joseph last year. It was like,
Speaker: Marshall made them turnover prone. JMU totally shut them down in the second half of that game. And I know we don't have the same level of JMU team heading into this year, but Hennekel's going to make a big jump as a passer for me to be like, okay, you know what?
Speaker: um ah Hands up, I was wrong two times in a row. I just am like, if he comes out and he's completing 60% of his passes, like ill I'll throw my hands up and be like, you know what? but I was wrong.
Speaker: But on the surface, like the numbers that I've seen throwing the football have not been where they need to be. i I don't think of it, it reminds me a little bit of Aiden Armenta situation in ULM, although Armenta has had so much more opportunity to prove that he has improved over the past two years and yeah simply hasn't.
Speaker: So we're both comfortable saying, He could be the 14th best quarterback. ah He could be the 15th best quarterback in this 14-team conference. And there's not really – that wouldn't shock us.
Speaker: Hennigl, it's kind of the same thing. Like, again, is a bowl game against USF really the best benchmark for him? Probably not. But in that body of work, 11 for 25, no interceptions, but no touchdowns. He ran the ball 24 times for over 100 yards.
Speaker: But and i again, you know this is my game. Take away his 51-yard touchdown run. He's running 23 times for 50 yards. That's putrid. That's really bad. ah Also took four sacks as a guy that scrambles as much as he does. And like again, I'm not trying to make the same mistake, but it's like if you are a...
Speaker: a run heavy quarterback who takes sacks, you know, the the way that he does. I mean, it was like, okay, he took four sacks in the cure bowl against USF Colton Joseph in the, over the course of the entire season.
Speaker: i mean, i'm looking I'm just looking at team numbers. So like they're not broken up by person. They yeah old dominion didn't take more than three sacks in any game. They played outside of the bowl game where clinical was the starter.
Speaker: So I just need i would need to see him display better decision making and and do a better job getting the ball to the receivers and and getting out of trouble and making like better decisions. I think in general, I think last year, like our evaluation, we were way wrong on the floor of this team. We thought this could be the worst offense in the conference, given the weapons it was going to be.
Speaker: um I wouldn't go that far. Maybe not worse. ah you know A middling to but bottom half, maybe you know maybe bought just below the median offense because it was going Colton Joseph and the Funky Bunch. ah but And so we were kind of wrong on where that floor was set.
Speaker: I think here with Hinnacle, it's plausible that we're making the opposite mistake in which we think that the ceiling is too low for what it is. But I'm just right there with you. is that like I've not seen it. I need to see it.
Speaker: I'm willing to give him like the three, maybe you know two games of conference play. Let's get two games into conference play before we put a stamp on it. But as of right now, like It's exactly as I texted you. I think a lot of people just kind of look at the defense, which again was spectacular, but even these Troy defenses needed good quarterback play.
Speaker: You need somebody that's going to take care of the football and is not going to take unnecessary sacks and put the offense behind the sticks. And i think one of the other things we didn't bring up, or like, I could i guess I can go ahead and talk about it now defensively is, are they going to be able to replicate last year's sack numbers? Because again, they were up there with the JMUs and the Arkansas States of the world. They had 39 sacks as a team.
Speaker: Okay. That's, Very, very good. But even if you go back one season to 2024, when Colton Joseph was definitely still starting, they gave up 28 points per game. They only had 26 sacks and they gave up over 400 yards per game.
Speaker: So what you said about the lottery ticket, like, I don't want to say that that's definitely what happened, but a lot of things are going to have to fall into place for them to replicate last season.
Speaker: And ah again, it's like Hennicle's the biggest point for me, the biggest point of contention, because when you go from having a guy who, I mean, what would last year, if you had to go back and rate all the quarterbacks, would you say Joseph was Like the second best in the conference? It's like him, Alonzo Barnett, and Brad Jackson 1A, for me.
Speaker: Yeah. So when you take that and then you replace it with a guy who, again, albeit has played limited snaps, but is can't it's not completing 50 percent of his passes, you're just like, OK, well, what do I take away from this heading into next year? um You add on the fact that, like again, I'm not making the same mistake as last year, but if we're going to transition to who he will be throwing to, right they return none of their top, what, six or seven receivers? um
Speaker: Sidney... Bonsor, think, is is their ah leading returning receiver. He had 68 yards last year. TJ Johnson is another another guy that's up there. I think he was their eighth leading receiver. He also had 68 yards last year.
Speaker: um I'm not underrating them as potential like one and two receivers for this team. like Whoever you want to say is the one, I'll hear it out. Right. I just have i have doubts that Hennicle will be as accurate as they need to be to keep the offense chugging. And that's sort of where I'm like,
Speaker: I'll kind of give like my overall thoughts like on how I think the season will go like once we once we talk about the schedule and stuff. But i just this if Joseph had stuck around, which I understand why he didn't, I understand all the reasoning, if he had stuck around, I would have had this team walking to the Sunbelt title game for the East. like The way that the entire conference has sort of rebooted at the quarterback position would have made this...
Speaker: for the taking. And because they're transitioning away from Joseph, I'm just sort of like, it stinks. Cause like I, he would have really displayed, he but he would have been preseason conference player of the year, preseason offensive player the year, probably would have won the award during the regular seasons, like all of that stuff. Right. And because he moves on now, it's like, we have a guy with limited snaps who likes to run a lot. And i don't really know what to, to make of that as of today.
Speaker: Yeah, at the receiver position, i think, um like I said earlier, i I'm willing to give Ricky Ronnie some level benefit of the doubt because he did hit with the guys that he brought in. ah Those being, and I have them here, it it was Traequan Jones, the running back, was at Georgia Military.
Speaker: He's now at Tulsa. Trey Brown was at Hutchinson Community College, as was like 20% of this roster, by the way, even the guys that are still here. All went to Hutchinson. Isn't that where Collier played? I believe Collier also went there. So, I mean, that is like that entire roster is now playing FBS, it would feel.
Speaker: ah But, yeah, Trey Brown, he's at Virginia Tech now. Drew Corey Thomas, they also brought in from Hutchinson. He's playing for Vanderbilt now. And then we talked about Naeem Abdul Rahim Gladding, who was in the program but now plays at Maryland, previously being a special teamer.
Speaker: So like yeah he hit on all of those, which is why, and I'm going to give you ah the guys that they brought in um that I think will kind of contend for those spots. Zion Agnew, who was playing at Lenore Ryan last year, 41 catches for 665 yards.
Speaker: JJ Harrell at Holmes Community College, 14 catches for yards. That might be forty one for two twenty six because fourteen for two twenty six feels ridiculous And then it was Kendall Harris, who the last two years at Mercer um or last year at Mercer caught 37 passes 473 yards.
Speaker: when you look at ah how Old Dominion used their wide receivers last year and what separates this team from like South Alabama, which needs to replace a lot of their receiving talent.
Speaker: It was really spread out. You have three guys in like the 600, 500 plus club. um And so you don't need a ball hawk who's going to get you 10 catches a game. You don't need the Cam Brown that ah or or the Bo Sparks. You don't need those guys.
Speaker: You just need guys that have volume. Agnew has the volume. Harris has the volume. I believe Harrell has the volume, assuming I wrote my numbers down wrong. um They also brought in a bunch of pass-catching tight ends, which is something we don't see a ton of in this conference.
Speaker: Carl Peterson, ah two years ago, led all Juco tight ends in catches. You've got Lonnie Johnson, 28 catches last year for 359. And then they bring in a guy from Maryland who had four catches for 43 in limited time. So, like, these profile very similarly to the Hutchinson guys that they brought in last year.
Speaker: and you know possibly overcorrecting for the same mistake, i I think there's something here. I think there's something here, receiving-wise. The running back room is the one that concerns me a little bit more because they went with the Trey Kwon Jones, Colton Joseph show.
Speaker: Late in the season, Devin Roche stepped up, and it's not the numbers would appear that he and Jones were kind of split in times. It was more of a first half, second half. ah But I don't know who's really behind Roche, who last year had three 100-yard games in the la in their last four.
Speaker: um Great story. his I don't know if we ever talked about this. He got hurt in August, and then his mom died, like in the beginning of part of the season and then turned up in the like last five, six games of the year and just turned into a beast.
Speaker: and So obviously tragic for him. Incredible story, though. Yeah. my My concern is who else is going to complement that run room, especially assuming you get like a drop off and ah you're you're not going to be able to pass it as effectively. Maybe you want to go to the ground and earlier your downs more than you already were.
Speaker: um i just don't know who that two back is, is my only offensive concern. i At least, you know, according to Phil Steele's magazine, it seems like it's going to be ah Morky James, who played sparingly last year. He had two starts and he appeared in 11 games. He had 224 yards last season on the ground. The the thing that I'm interested in and i haven't I don't know that there's a way to Google this because again, it was like whatever, but Cody cook is their new offensive coordinator who was the wide receivers coach for the last two years.
Speaker: I do wonder if they ultimately just transition to a more option, like spread option type scheme, just because of how Hennical operates. Like he, he reminds me like on the surface, a lot of, um,
Speaker: like the the Georgia Southern quarterbacks of old, and I'm so i'm talking like 12 years ago or something, where where you're like, you're talking about like the Kevin Ellisons and and those those guys, Jarrett McKinnons of the world, where it's like,
Speaker: you know we we need to run the ball effectively because if we get behind by multiple scores, like it's not a pretty sight as to what happens. So i'm I'm sort of wondering if they're like, we are going to tailor the offense to his skill set and make it so that we are not just running the Colton Joseph offense the way that we did last year and that we're playing to his strengths and not necessarily like,
Speaker: just trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. Right. So that's going to be something that's, that's very interesting to, to look at. um You talked about all the past catching weapons, you know,
Speaker: Mabon Soar, uh, last year, again, I said 68 yards. Um, who was the other guy? TJ Johnson, 68 yards, kind of same deal. Sorry. I just killed a spider. Um, uh, and then, you know, like you said, the tight end for Maryland. So the way that it lines up, he, uh, Phil steel has Kendall Harris and in a three, so three receiver sets spent the last two years at Mercer, uh, an FCS program, uh, Mabon Soar. And, um, Josh Rodriguez, who is a redshirt freshman.
Speaker: um So that's the way that he at least has the early three receivers set up. We'll see how, um again, how how pass heavier they're going to That's a great question. I feel like heading into this season because We've limited reps out of Hennical. So it's like, are they seeing the same thing in camp and everything like that leading up to the season to to go, okay, maybe we need to alter this offense to, again, play more to his strengths than, you know, try to expose his weaknesses on accident.
Speaker: And I feel like we say this every week, um but they they do have like an ample opportunity to really give him a good run. opening Opening the season by hosting Norfolk State, um like you are going to give him like that is a real FCS challenge. But we're not talking about you're not playing Montana State, right? We're not playing yeah those guys that can come out here and upset you.
Speaker: You give him the opportunity to play 64 minutes. ah and get an understanding of like, is he able to operate this at game speed against opponents? Right. yeah And um the offensive line is going to be interesting as well.
Speaker: I believe if I'm looking, they return one player from last year, which would be right guard Logan Cox, who is a junior.
Speaker: ah He's listed as having, having appeared in 12 games ah outside of that. It's like, Center Braden Walker is from Elon, an FCS transfer spent the last two years there. ah Connor Drake, your left guard, didn't play last year at all.
Speaker: ah Right tackle Bubba Craig, what a name, by the way, ah didn't play last year at Arkansas and is a transfer. And then you're starting with that. but Yes, that's true. That's true. From the Hutchinson team. And then the left tackle is Kendrick Hall, who ah started 10 games last year at Butler Community College. So, um yeah, I mean, the the offense as a whole is just being totally reworked.
Speaker: right And again, they they scored 32 points per game last year as an offense. They were one of the highest scoring offenses in the entire conference. Are they going to be able to replicate the exact same thing? I think defensively, they're going to be maybe not 18 points per game, but they're going to be up to the same snuff as they were last year. Offensively is where I have a lot of questions where it's like, i don't want to rehash everything I just said, but it's like, they go run more. Are they going to throw the ball as much as they did last year? Like they were pretty aggressive at times, throwing the ball down the field with,
Speaker: uh gladding and like a lot of these guys like high depth of target so i'm just interested to see like how the offense operates with a new offensive coordinator because you also never know new offensive coordinator comes in like again he's been the wide receivers coach can he call it does he know what it's like to call plays like he's going to be up to that as well and then he obviously works then under ronnie who was previously an offensive coordinator himself sure I only know this. I promise this is not like deep ball knowledge. I only know this because I was looking for who are the lottery tickets going to be.
Speaker: um They've also got four other guys like in-depth offensive line spots that have played a lot. You've got a guy. You've got a two-year starter um at Mississippi Gulf Coast. You have a guy who is a back-to-back all-conference player in D2.
Speaker: You've got another guy from that Hutchinson team. ah You've got a guy who started at North Alabama last year. So it's like there are more scratch offs here. I don't know because Phil Seal puts out his book so early, you know, how much of this changes through camp. like It appears to me that there are guys to compete for these spots as well, and giving them just even more chances to you know hit the sevens.
Speaker: Yeah. And um let's go ahead and talk about that defense that was so spectacular last year. You return a good number of starters, I would say, um headlined by – believe he goes by Seth.
Speaker: um I think his legal name is like Koa, but the middle linebacker ah I think is Nautala is his last name, but his first name is Seth.
Speaker: Actually, can I jump in on you? Yeah. Seth Nautala and I believe Koa. I believe they're brothers, actually.
Speaker: Oh, so there's two of them? There's two Noah Tallis, I believe, because Koba was hurt last year. And Seth kind of stepped up into that role because remember, was it last year they were also supposed to have Jason Henderson?
Speaker: And that was such, which is yeah crazy about that defense that it performed when it had like a guy who was supposed to be preseason defensive player of the year, just kind of have to retire from football.
Speaker: And then, yeah, and then medically you had to retire. Like, that was such a shame. um Yeah, so they're they're going to have – they run also this 3-3-5. They're going to have a very strong linebacking core, which has been sort of a hallmark of of them as of late. Like, they've produced, like you said, Henderson, ah both Notalas, you know, ah who was it, Mario Thompson, another guy. Like, they they have had a quality – run at the linebacker spot that I think is going to really anchor this team.
Speaker: um Up front, you return a third team Sunbelt player in Chris Forbes, who is a defensive tackle, ah who is 6'1", 290, and then DeAndre Lynch.
Speaker: ah who was the nose guard for them last year. You do replace one one starter in the offensive or defensive line. You've got Javin Gibson stepping into that role, who had three and a half sacks as ah as a 3-4 D end, which is pretty good. Yeah. um So what what do you think about sort of the front seven for this team? You know, you've got a lot of sacks that you need to replace from last year if you want to kind of keep up that level of production.
Speaker: I think if you were bullish on this team, you could say the entire Sunbelt East has taken a step back ah just because you don't have to deal with Alonzo Barnett.
Speaker: Like you don't have to deal with like a lot of these guys that have been really good for years you know southern misses on their schedule they don't have to deal with a braylon braxton level guy in the at the end of the season so what what are your sort of early returns on the the uh front seven for the defense here sure uh i mean you the big disappointment for them is losing their top sack getter and jeremy mack Um, but kind of the, the silver lining to that is he's your leading sack getter with only five and a half.
Speaker: I mean, there, there are teams in this conference who's second or third best guy was putting up that type of number. Um, this is a team that for as many sacks as they created, with that front seven or front six, I guess, um, it was coming from so many different angles.
Speaker: I mean, you read down their stat leaders. It's a bunch of guys with two, a bunch of guys with three, three and a half. Um, so I'm not, you know, I, I think this is not a situation like we had with Marshall where it's like, oh my gosh, this is the best pass rush in the conference because you have future NFL player, Mike green.
Speaker: And then when he goes leaves for the draft, um, It's like, oh, we there's no one here anymore. This is a situation where it it is schemed pretty well. you get When you get those three threes, you're able to create like a lot of angles, and and that's often the appeal for defensive coaches is that you can create so many different points of attack.
Speaker: um I think this linebacking core is really, really strong. Naotala, I think it is. Naotala, Naotoa, Koa. He two years ago was a second year all conference player.
Speaker: ah Last year, Mario Thompson, I think was a preseason all Sunbelt guy. Cause I don't know if you remember last year we took in our, preview of, or was it two years ago?
Speaker: No, it was last year of our preview of Old Dominion. Defensively, it was the two Marios because you have Mario Thompson and Mario Easterly. um And both of those guys pretty much missed the entire year.
Speaker: I think Thompson ultimately had to take a red shirt because he missed so much time. with injury, but those are two guys that had been like legitimate ballplayers for this team just two years ago. And so they've got vets. yeah They've got guys that know what they're doing. Again, you're missing like that Jason Henderson 100 tackle type.
Speaker: um I don't know if that matters though. I really don't. I think I i could see Koa taking taking that role like no problem. You know, if if he doesn't get hurt last year, he's probably once again in contention for being an awesome level player.
Speaker: Yeah. so Yeah. i mean it's just I think my my question mark about this defense is not the guys in the box. You return four got like four legitimate quality starters.
Speaker: Gibson played a good tick last year. um Drummer, who Phil Steele projects as kind of the third linebacker, did not play um and did not play his previous stop at Towson.
Speaker: um But one out of the – if you only have one spot to fill, surely someone in camp has filled it. You've got an entire roster to fill that spot. It's not like we have this whole roster to fill 11 spots. So I, I like the front six here. I really do.
Speaker: Yeah. The other thing, you know, the Phil Steele notes that their linebacking core is easily the deepest in the Sun Belt, which don I don't really have any ah qualms with with that or any quibbles. um Yeah, I i think the the big question is, like, are they just going to be able to replicate the sack numbers? And I know we've asked that about a lot of teams, like,
Speaker: Again, the unreleased JMU episode will be coming probably the week after this episode drops. ah They were you know consistently one of the top sack getters, whether it was Signetti or Chesney.
Speaker: Okay, well, they have a brand new front. like what What does that turn into? Same thing with Arkansas State, who once again morphed into one of the top sack getting units ah in the second half of last season. And you're like, okay, well, that was great, but all those guys are gone now, so where where are we at heading into 2026?
Speaker: In the secondary... they do return to guys at the the corner spot. So you've got ah Brandon Crutchfield who played all 13 games last year. he had eight pass defenses and 35 tackles at the cornerback spot. And then you've got Zion Frank who had 60 tackles, 13 starts and then defended seven passes. So you're, you're safe there. I mean, presumably like they were you,
Speaker: as ah As a secondary, they gave up 191 pass yards per game last year, which was great. I do think it helps when teams are – don't want to say scared to throw against you, but when when you're like one when you're getting 40 sacks in a season as a unit, it's like yeah we're not exactly like jazzed up to drop back and throw 40 times against this team.
Speaker: I think – The safety spots are are sort of where I think I have my big questions um as far as the secondary. You've got Davon, I think it's Ilis or Ilis. He played in 12 games, but he was like a rotational guy last year. He only have one start. And then at the free safety spot, Ryan Ramey is a junior. um He had one start ah over the last three years, I think, according to Phil Steele's magazine. So It's just like, you know, next man up at the at the safety spots. I think you always run the risk. I'm not saying that this going to happen to this team, but I think you always are run in the risk of being like, okay, the next man up thing works until it doesn't.
Speaker: sure And so there's a chance that, you know, we someone throws the ball deep and sees that one of our guys is like, not quite not quite where we need to be right to to to be able to defend some of these. I mean, I do think you have a de defensive coordinator who's been here for seven years in Blake Seiler.
Speaker: So you got continuity there. again, my big questions are safeties and pass rush and everywhere else. I'm, I'm pretty good on, on the corners. um Linebacker spot, obviously Mario Easterly at that Kings position um is six foot one 95. You talked about him a little bit. So I think the big question is like,
Speaker: Are they going to drop back down to 2024 where they only had 26 sacks? Or are they going to be up closer to the 40 number where you're like, we're we're far in the lead in the in the conference?
Speaker: Yeah. um They also benefited from, not to rag on Marshall again, but a similar thing Marshall is going to experience this year where they've got Boog Trotter who picked off like every ball that was is within 10 yards of him.
Speaker: Uh, you have that same situation here with Jerome Carter, six interceptions. It's just like, you can't bank on a guy making six picks over the course of the season. Uh, he was excellent. And I don't want to take ah that away. And it's like, when you have a guy that's making all those picks that obviously benefits the rest of the defense, because now you're scared to throw to him so he can put more, more forces elsewhere.
Speaker: um but they're going to see a little bit of regression in that sense of like, you're not going to rank or you can't count on ranking. 11th most in the country for takeaways again. um Like some of these numbers, it's like the points per game is ultimately all that matters is, you know, my ultimate thesis with the caveats that some of these ancillary numbers are not things you can count on.
Speaker: I talked about the yard point already. We talked about the takeaways and we talked about like the field goal kicking things that ultimately probably regressed to the mean in the long run. um and so with that said again these are just my way to say you know when this team goes or you know crap if they were to crash and burn i can come back here in december and say well brian i told you that they were bad at yards per point didn't i and and cover my rear the i do believe in this defense i really do i think it i I'm not as concerned about the pass rush with you, but I do think there is some gaps that could be but will need to be filled. um
Speaker: Something else interesting about the defense is as you look through the roster there, there aren't any scratch-offs. These are guys that were recruited to Old Dominion or have been in the program for several years.
Speaker: um And I guess I'm just curious to kind of see how that takes shape and how um that, in you know, these trends in recruiting as NIL changes and eligibility rules change.
Speaker: It's going to be kind of interesting for us to track and keep an eye on how, which ways these go, because it it would appear offensively um that that you've offensively and defensively that old dominion has taken two stark different paths in that regard. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker: Yeah, I agree with all that. I think so to kind of put a bow on both sides of the ball, it's like lot of questions on the offensive side the ball, um which I don't feel are totally unearned. I mean, it's like the the other funny thing that ah sometimes Phil Steele puts a lot behind what coaches say, and it yeah sort of makes me laugh a little bit.
Speaker: uh one of the things in the quarterback spot he says is ronnie says they have three guys who can win sunbelt games and he's never said that before and i was like i was like yeah before last season it was like you don't have any guys you can yeah it was like sorry like we we didn't we didn't have a lot of stock in hayden wolf and guys like that so you know sorry all right so let's talk about the schedule uh fairly favorable schedule, I would say, um with the way that it all shook out. It's like, you get Norfolk staying in the opener, September 5th. You talked about that. That's going to be a good a good game to get them you know lined up, let Hennicle try to run this offense, see what you got, see where you need to tweak.
Speaker: Week two, you do get at Virginia Tech. um Obviously, James Franklin comes in for Brent Prye. ah I think Franklin is going to have them fired up to play given that they got absolutely smacked by old dominion last year.
Speaker: What does that mean in year one of, of James Franklin, Virginia tech? I don't really know. um i don't, I don't have high expectations for year one, i James Franklin at Virginia tech. So if, if old dominion pulled that one out, I wouldn't be shocked.
Speaker: Uh, Week three, you come back, you play East Carolina at home. I think we talked to Aikman. They play East Carolina this season. He was like, I think they're supposed to be pretty good.
Speaker: um That one's a coin flip to me. But then week four, you get into Sunbelt plays, James Madison at home, Ghost of Christmas Past, where it's like, my all right, that's going to be the ultimate measuring stick to start for both of these teams, where it's like,
Speaker: James Madison's in the middle of a ah quarterback battle right now. They don't even know who's going to take the majority in snaps week one. By week four, we don't know where we're going to be at quarterback-wise from them.
Speaker: Defensively, they're i mean they're they're just rebooting again with with Napier the same way they did with Chesney in year one, things like that. so um any Any initial thoughts on like the first four games of the schedule?
Speaker: I mean, i think obviously the James Madison is the all-important. Obviously it's the conference, but it's all also I think – I don't think. I know it that is the consensus battle for the East is James Madison and Old Dominion.
Speaker: And you, I don't know, i think you kind of, I'm a little disappointed that it's so early in the year in that, like, you kind of want these teams to have found the rhythm. um Obviously, like this will likely be the least injured we see the teams, but it's like, I would much rather see this game in Halloween, early November than I would in late September. That feels early. um you know, what's done is done.
Speaker: Um, but But that's my take on it. I do want to give credit like to Old Dominion, though, because, and I don't know if this is to Ricky Ronnie's credit or if this is to like the guy the player's credit, but it's after those beatings that they took against Marshall and James Madison, they just went on a tear.
Speaker: So in a world where James Madison is back in form and we get the exact same scoreline that can derail a bunch of teams for the rest of the season. I think app in recent years would have been like that. Georgia Southern is obviously like that.
Speaker: Very notably both teams in the East, but it's like, There are teams where if you get smacked around or you lose that game early, that's that's going to derail the whole season. We didn't see that with Old Dominion last year. In fact, I mean, that that fired up their push and and put them, you know, in the national conversation to a degree. So – ah yeah I think obviously that's going to be probably when we look at um once we're through conference play, we're going look back and say this game is why, you know, extra Y team is in the conference championship.
Speaker: um But Old Dominion loses like they're not out of the race. they They showed a lot of guts last year. And so, um I mean, again, I don't know if that's to Ricky Ronnie or to the players credit, but someone deserves like a hat tip for that.
Speaker: Oh, yeah, certainly. I mean, you asked on ah on a previous episode, I think it was Marshall. ah You were like, who was winning games at the end of last year? i was like, well, it was Old Dominion and JMU and Troy. I mean, kind of. It was like Troy got smacked around by Old Dominion at one point, but then they closed the season strong. And it was like, obviously, they had to have because they had to beat Southern Miss and those types of teams to get to the the title game. all right so as we As we move past, you know you get a pair of road games at Georgia State at App. um
Speaker: Georgia State i mean should be a ah win for them. um At App is going to be interesting. Loggins giving up play calling duties, which, um you know, ah Aikman let me know about. He texted me and was like, Mike Anthony is actually going to be the primary play caller for them, which is something we just recently found out. So I don't i don't know how that's all going to bear out for them.
Speaker: um And then they play October 15th, Georgia Southern at home on a Thursday. I'm very confident in saying Old Dominion is going to probably win that game. ah Southern, I know Southern has a new defensive coordinator. They have shown that they have zero answers for whatever Old Dominion has run the last couple years. um They've gotten absolutely smacked by Old Dominion the last two years specifically.
Speaker: October 24th, you come back and you go at Louisiana tech. That's going interesting game as well. I mean, we, we did our Louisiana tech preview. ah They are presumably going to continue being run heavy.
Speaker: Um, I don't know how much opportunity they're going to give. They, this might be a matchup of two teams that look very similar ah with old dominion and Louisiana tech, where it was like, guess what? Louisiana tech also gave up 18 points per game last year. I mean, I know it was, it was Cusa, but they, they had a quarterback ah carousel who none of them were set in the world on fire, throwing the ball and they just ran the ball at will. So this might be, that might be one of the shortest games you ever see time-wise um in the history of football.
Speaker: ah So as we get through that four game chunk, Georgia State at Southern Tech, any any initial kind of thoughts on those games? um I think you I think Louisiana Tech is obviously the most difficult of those four.
Speaker: That's also of those four. The only one I i think I wouldn't. comfortably pencil in old dominion i think app state could i think app state is going to be better than they were last year but i i just like old dominion more it's it's just really plain and simple and then you know well documented our thoughts on state and southern um louisiana tech i would say outside of james madison even looking ahead at the rest of the schedule i think that might just be the most Closely fought. I don't know if it'll be a necessarily exciting as you talked about could just be old school army Navy where even those lined up. Yeah. Line up and run it.
Speaker: And even those are more interesting because you get like the, the true triple option stuff with that. But um I think Louisiana tech old dominion is going to be as close to an even matchup as we're going to get, because I think James Madison is either going to be a step above or a step below old dominion. I don't really know if there's an in-between for them.
Speaker: um So that October 24th game is the one that I think most excites me outside of obviously what will probably be the division decider in the James Madison game.
Speaker: Well, the the next game on their schedule, you know, Halloween at home against Marshall, I think there is a world where you've got a, like a, a what is it? Like a triple threat match. And it's like Marshall, Old Dominion, and JMU are all like,
Speaker: All of them beat one another. Sure. And then you're in like a weird tiebreaker scenario where it's like they all have what like one conference loss or two conference losses and they're all just sort of like, I don't know, is there gonna be a coin flip like we are they're all winning one against each other. Right. We all we roll a die at the end of the season to see who who makes the title game. Like, how does that how does that all pan out? That's going to be interesting, too, because it's like Marshall has these super high expectations. It's like if if everybody in the conference is already like Carlos Del Rio Wilson is the the player of the year running away before we even take a snap.
Speaker: I'm like, OK, well, then again, Marshall, JMU and Old Dominion, like if you look at the win totals, they're all going to be eight, nine wins this year.
Speaker: So I just don't buy the Marshall hype. I think both of these teams are suffering from a bit of like, phantasmal quarterback play where we're anticipating something that we're not really going to get.
Speaker: um But I think I just like the structure around Old Dominion. And again, it's going to come back to the defense and how dominant where even if they regress to 21, 24 points a game, allow a whole additional touchdown, there's still an elite defense. Yeah.
Speaker: I think like, yeah there's a world wherere in where we're in that three gun race, but ah I think it's going to be a lot more similar to last year where it's James Madison, Old Dominion, and then the middle of the division.
Speaker: That's fair. I just, the the funny thing, like when you take all of these things, all of these facts or whatever preseason projection stuff, and you put them in a blender, you're like, well, wait a minute. So JMU has the highest win total, but ODU has the best returning players on defensive side. But Marshall has the the guy who's going to be the reigning off offensive player of the year, and we've all got them...
Speaker: Like what separate, you know, you're like what separates them at that point? So that's, that's ah going to be something really interesting to track. And then November 7th, you come back, you play at Coastal.
Speaker: Coastal is starting, you know, starting over with Ryan Beard. um They're currently, at least according to the guys from the Strut podcast that I talked to, like they're in the middle of a quarterback competition right now as well.
Speaker: They don't really know who's going to come out of of that as the the victor. So that's going to be another kind of wait and see. Ryan Beard's a defensive guy, so you know if he feels like he's got the pieces in place, like maybe maybe they take a big jump defensively this year. I don't know. i mean Missouri State was okay last year, but they weren't like i mean I think they finished 5-7. It was it was like a good FCS to FBS transfer season, but not anything that would be like, oh my god, like this blew my socks off in year one.
Speaker: November 14th, after 10 straight games, we finally get a bye week. I think JMU is the only other team that got shafted on the bye. Was it JMU or was it Arkansas State that plays like 10 straight No, I think it was JME plays 11 straight and then they get a bye before the finale.
Speaker: And i we were we were talking about it with Bennett and I was like, dude, if there's anybody left alive, like you better hope you're like, just everybody get an ice bath, please. Please God. um Okay, so after that bye, again, 10 straight weeks of games and then and then a bye before the last two games of the season, I really would have liked to have seen this Connecticut game on November 21st swapped with the JMU game. Like if you just flipped those two, I'd have been like, let's go ahead and knock out all of the out of conference games the way that a lot of teams have it set up where it's like four games at the beginning in the season and then we just jump into conference play from there. I would have rather have kind of seen it like that because then that there's a little bit of
Speaker: You know, drama, a little bit of tension drama. It's not as fun when it's like, OK, you play James Madison and Marshall in like a five week span. And then everybody's just sitting around looking at the bottom line of the score bug on ESPN being like, who won today? Yeah. in The lead is somebody else in the lead. Did did Marshall get upset? Did Jamie lose today? You know, like, how does that how does that all go? And then you end a Southern Miss at home. Southern Miss is another team that's just totally starting over. I don't really have very high hopes for them as as a team going into this year. I think it's going to be a big rebuilding project for Blake Anderson and company. um you i think i had I think I have this team like eight or nine wins. I think they've got them at like nine.
Speaker: Nine and three. Yeah, not nine is right there. I'm not surprised by ten. Again, like nine in a bowl game is – I think probably nine in a bowl game is where I have them. Not nine in a bowl game win. UConn, worth noting, will have come off a beating from James Madison the week prior.
Speaker: They've got three Sunbelt teams this year, also playing Southern Miss real early. So maybe they're trying to get a bid. um We don't want you, but you can try. awesome yeah What would we do with Connecticut as ah as a program?
Speaker: i They would make Texas state look like they wanted to be a part of the conference. um Yeah. It's like, you're, you're just not going, I made the mistake. I made the Texas, the infamous now Texas state mistake, but it's like, it's hard to look at the schedule and say that there's more than like two losses here.
Speaker: But, you know, it's just the the conference. This is like as much as people I keep we keep talking to guests who are like last year was a down year for the conference. I'm like, really? I think it was like a pretty solid year overall. Like we had a son. We had ah a Sunbelt team go to the college football playoff. Like, yeah you know, we had another team that was 10 and three um and didn't even make the Sunbelt title game because there was a 12 and whatever.
Speaker: 11-1, 12-1 team ahead of them. So I'm like, I don't know. this This year is one where I point to and I'm like, we might just have a mishmash across the West and the East of a bunch of like eight and four teams, nine and three teams that are like Again, all mashed up together, all have tiebreakers, presumably over one another.
Speaker: As of today, I think I have ODU and JMU at like nine, and then I think I have Marshall at eight. So I think I have them one behind. I'm just going to need to see Marshall's defense play better football as a whole ah before I can kind of crown them. But yeah.
Speaker: I don't know. i we I mean, we've been spoiled by James Madison. um we were spoiled before them by Troy and before them by Coastal and App. App, yeah. So it's been a like the better part of a decade now where it's – Louisiana. There's been clear-cut number one, number two in the conference. And with – I guess we're still in that conversation.
Speaker: But it's like if you compare like even those Coastal teams, those App teams, it's like – you compare them against upcoming Old Dominion, upcoming Troy, upcoming JMU, it's like, I really liked Nate Noel.
Speaker: i You know, i that was fun. Cameron Peoples, yeah. Yeah. So it feels like a step back, but I think we're going to see – we' We've had some parity. We had it last year. We had it the year before. Obviously, Marshall and Charles Huff was a big revelation for parity across the conference.
Speaker: um I think we're, as you said, just kind of headed for a bunch of
Speaker: nine win, eight win, you know, there's, it's hard to see a dominant team come out this pack. Right. I think is, is, is the big thing.
Speaker: Even if I had not learned my lesson, it would have been difficult to make the Texas state mistake here. Yeah. I mean, i guess if you're if you're always following the the logic of like defense wins championships, like you would presumably go with Old Dominion to win the East.
Speaker: um But like I said, I have them right there. Until until I see JMU take... like a serious step back, like 2024, they were still good, but they weren't like the dominant team we had come to expect. And they came within, i mean, a hair of making the sub L title game that year, even in a season where it was like, they were good.
Speaker: They were like an eight and four, eight five, whatever team like, but they weren't the the steamroller they had been with. Like again, last year's team or, or sign ready in 2023. It was like Okay, again, they're they're fine, but they're not, like, dominant. And that's kind of what I expect is, like, a lot of teams like that where this year where you're like, oh, so-and-so, know, Old Dominion lost in in an upset in a game that we didn't anticipate. Oh, Marshall dropped a game that we we didn't necessarily see coming. Oh, JMU...
Speaker: you know, whatever they're doing a quarterback rotation, the way that they did last year was Sluka and Barnett at the beginning of the year. Cause they can't settle on a guy. Oh, they lost because of it. Something like that. So I'm like, again, it's just hard to like, look at any one team in this conference go, Oh, they are definitely far and away the best team and everybody else is just playing for second.
Speaker: The way that presumably like the NFL is with like the Rams at this point. Um, But yeah, I think it's going to be a really compelling year, but I think if anybody tells you they know what's going to happen heading into this season, like they're lying through their teeth. Like they're trying to sell you something.
Speaker: I think that's as a, as a whole, I think that's very exciting for you and I, but maybe not great for the conference. Like nationally, I think, I don't know. i guess maybe I'm trying to read the tea leaves where it's like, I think having that JMU or like a Boise state, those guys that are just steamrolling everyone else is good for the conferences perception broadly, because you're at least putting these team names into people's mouths.
Speaker: um Because like, if we become like a mismatch, like now you start to look like conference USA where it's like, wow, these are all teams that frankly, like, and I know the Sunbelt's not far from it, but it's like, these could all be the first team's cut when we realign all of this.
Speaker: um yeah So I, again, i i guess who cares? Does this really matter? If we love Sunbelt ball, I don't, I guess it doesn't matter to us, but i if you watch the Google trends, maybe something will pop up there. Well, I mean, as we sort of close here, i mean, obviously the years where we have the dominant teams, like the the JMU last year, like help the perception of the conference overall. Like it's the the rising tide lifts all boats type of thing. And like, even if you dig deeper as not us, because we cover them every week, but if you're a casual and you go, oh, well, who did JMU must have played nobody all year. And then you look and you're like, oh, they beat a 10 and three
Speaker: old dominion team i mean again if you're just looking at it like on its face you're like wow they beat them like a drum like that that that must have been a really good jamu team it's like yeah but you're gonna have it's like ebbs and flows like the ocean like you're gonna have years where it's like we come out and we kind of know knew jamu last year was like in the driver's seat heading into the season and there was a reason we were like, yeah, they're just going to walk through and win the Sunbelt title. And they did.
Speaker: And then there's years like two years ago where it's like, i don't know, it comes down to the end of the season in ah in a final game. And it's like, is Marshall going to be JMU to to move on to the Sunbelt title game? so i i think it I think it helps, but in different ways. like When you have years like 2024, you're like, wow, this conference is so deep and competitive and like all of that stuff. And then you have years like last year where you're like, wow, this team is, like you said, like a Boise State level thing where they kind of come out of nowhere and make make a splash. You're like, both of those things help to an extent. You just don't want to get locked into either one of them on a yearly basis because then you're like,
Speaker: Who is JMU playing? Like, why why do they go twelve and o every year? Or why is everybody in the conference eight and five at the end of the season? so Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, sweet. All right.
Speaker: Yeah. ah You want to go ahead and let everybody know where they can find you on socials, and then we'll get into Yeah. here I'm on Twitter at Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O. And then as always, you can find the show on ah TikTok and X at Warm Weather Fans. You can find me on X at WatchTheStone.
Speaker: Thank you, everybody, for joining us. And we'll be back later this week with another episode. See you.
