Transcript
Darwin Kastle: Welcome. to Episode 8 of The Big Swing Saving America. where we talk about what the hell is going on with the Republican Party and what Democrats need to do about it.
Darwin Kastle: Part 1. The Blizzard. The new Congress will need to enter office with a tsunami of good legislation. last time I talked about some of the great potential legislation for what will hopefully be a Democratic -led Congress in 2027.
Darwin Kastle: I think what comes first matters. If the Democrats win the midterms, it will primarily be by echoing the message that got Donald Trump elected to a second term as president. reducing costs for American voters, and staying out of wars.
Darwin Kastle: Trump. has done the exact opposite of those things. He has massively increased the cost of living for average Americans. And he launched an unprovoked and unauthorized war on Iran that is making the cost of living crisis even worse. with no end in sight.
Darwin Kastle: to either. As a result. The new Congress needs to start with a focus on these two things. putting a stop to the war and helping Americans afford things again. It's entirely possible that Trump will veto all these efforts and that no Republicans will get behind efforts to override vetoes.
Darwin Kastle: But that doesn't matter. Both outcomes are useful. Ideally. Congress will successfully pass legislation that ends the war. helps raise incomes for the middle and working class, and lowers the cost of important items like fuel,
Darwin Kastle: Housing. healthcare, care and food. I think it's likely that some of this can get passed, even if it requires GOP help. But if the worst case scenario happens...
Darwin Kastle: and Republicans can block everything. The Blizzard of Bills will still be worth launching. That's because of 2029. If Congress can't get anything done in 2027,
Darwin Kastle: They must get things done in 2029. The way to do that... is with control of both the legislative branch and the executive branch. Launching an avalanche of popular legislation at Trump's desk will help make that happen.
Darwin Kastle: Being able to point at bill after bill. meant to make life better for voters being vetoed by President Trump. and not getting support from anyone in the GOP. will send a strong political message.
Darwin Kastle: Republican leaders. don't care about you. only themselves and their wealthy donors. This will also help shape popular opinion about Trump ahead of what will surely be a third impeachment.
Darwin Kastle: It will be much easier to convict a president who is universally reviled. than one who still retains some popularity with the masses. The big question. maybe whether the GOP can be made to believe that they need a hard political reset.
Darwin Kastle: If enough political pressure can be applied, They may have to decide that Trump is such a political liability. that they need to abandon their support of him. Of course, if such a thing was easy,
Darwin Kastle: it would have happened already But the time might be growing ripe for it to finally become a reality. One. His polling numbers are at an all -time low. Two. He's about to be hit by a blue tsunami in the midterms.
Darwin Kastle: three He's a lame duck. Despite anything he might say, He can't get elected again. And four. his supposed successors JD Vance.
Darwin Kastle: or Marco Rubio They'll forever be associated with him. and they've got less charisma. Hard to come up with a scenario that screams. political reset more than that.
Darwin Kastle: Based on the composition of the current GOP leadership, it will probably take one more final blow. Losing badly in 2028. To make that a reality.
Darwin Kastle: Democrats. need to clearly show voters that Democrats are on their side. and republicans aren't. So they need to push for the people. and point out when the GOP interfere with that push.
Darwin Kastle: They should. Restore healthcare care subsidies. Remove funding for the Iran war. Restore green energy projects. Ban corporate stock buybacks.
Darwin Kastle: protect and support unions. Increase access to Medicare and Medicaid. Remove means testing for things like Snap. Ban congressional stock trading.
Darwin Kastle: hold hearings to investigate Doge. They should hold lots of hearings. Create a wealth tax. Fully fund the IRS. and bring in more inspectors general.
Darwin Kastle: These are just some of the many things Democrats... can act on to show that they're fighting for everyday americans not the wealthy elite If they pass... Great. If Republicans can stop them from voting.
Darwin Kastle: then shout about it from the rooftops. The GOP need to be completely voted out. Part two. Project 2029. Democracy first.
Darwin Kastle: If the... 2026 midterms. are as much of a blue tidal wave as they appear like they will be. We'll have a chance of free and fair elections in 2028. If the new Congress does their job.
Darwin Kastle: get some positive things done, and shows that they'll stand up to President Trump. American democracy. Might. be in for a Big win in 2028. including the election of a Democratic president.
Darwin Kastle: If that happens... The right -wing media machine will go nuts. trying to make anyone on the left look terrible. while fomenting culture wars to drive voters back to the right in 2030 and beyond.
Darwin Kastle: But what's new, really? The GOP will do everything possible to block any legislation that might help everyday Americans. They will do everything possible to warp reality into a frame where voting for Republicans in 2030 will just seem like a return to common sense.
Darwin Kastle: I mean... They did it to someone like Biden. The way to counter this... will be for Democrats to make a big swing on policy. They need to accomplish three big things.
Darwin Kastle: One, they need to protect elections by making America more democratic. Two, they need to send a strong message. by punishing corrupt actors from the Trump administration. Please.
Darwin Kastle: Trump as well. And number three. pass popular legislation that makes everyday Americans' lives better. It's pretty simple what they need to do. And the more of them we get into office.
Darwin Kastle: it becomes more simple for them to actually do it. So but let's start by focusing on number one. with this episode. One reason we know that making America more democratic will protect elections is because of how hard conservatives work to make them less democratic.
Darwin Kastle: gerrymandering. the Electoral College. executive orders. blocking mail -in voting. purging voting rolls, requiring specific IDs for voting, ignoring ballot question results. um You might not know about the last one.
Darwin Kastle: But. you like. what the heck Sometimes. A red state will... have a ballot question and the one that Democrats like will actually win because often that's what the people like.
Darwin Kastle: And sometimes... They just... pass some law to ignore it. Yeah. the last thing the GOP wants. is for the country to be ruled by the will of the simple majority.
Darwin Kastle: To address the problems with our democratic system, we need to start by understanding what democracy is supposed to be. I find a good place to start is with the dictionary definition. Oxford Dictionary says that democracy is a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state.
Darwin Kastle: typically through elected representatives. Merrin Webster says it's a form of government in which the people elect representatives to make decisions. Wikipedia says, democracy is a form of government in which Political power is vested in the people of a state.
Darwin Kastle: Every dictionary encyclopedia or other source uses slightly different words. But they all... Agree that democracy is a form of government where the decisions are made by the people who live inside the area being governed.
Darwin Kastle: It's pretty simple. And usually... by the people electing officials who they expect to carry out their wishes. It makes sense that the word democracy means Government by the people.
Darwin Kastle: since it is derived from the Greek word demos, which literally means People. The United States, not corporations. The United States is technically. a democratic republic.
Darwin Kastle: But don't let the word republic throw you off. The definition of republic is pretty much the same thing as democracy. According to Oxford, a republic is a state in which power is held by the people and their elected representatives and which has an elected president rather than a monarch.
Darwin Kastle: so basically what they're saying is Yes. The power is held by the people, just like democracy. And in the case of democracy, it's often elected representatives. In the Republic, it's always elected representatives. And specifically...
Darwin Kastle: They have an executive branch with an elected president. But yes, we're a democracy. and we're a republic. democracy, republic, it's governed by the people. so Don't let...
Darwin Kastle: Republicans. trying to muddy those waters by saying, oh, we're a republic, not a democracy or whatever. Don't pay attention. So yeah, we're a democratic republic. But here in the United States,
Darwin Kastle: governed by the people has a fatal flaw. It's missing the word Equal. Thanks to the structure of the Electoral College the senate The House of Representatives. and the Supreme Court.
Darwin Kastle: The people who have power to vote. don't have equal power and equal representation. um It'd be nice but It's not the case. Democracy in its simple form is the most direct.
Darwin Kastle: ballot questions. It's when a state puts a policy question on an election ballot and then enacts policy based on what answer gets the most votes so Simple. Majority rules.
Darwin Kastle: Yet when it comes to representation in the federal government, there are a bunch of things getting in the way of rule by the majority. This isn't an accident. The men who made the Constitution didn't trust their fellow citizens, at least not all of them.
Darwin Kastle: This was both a mistake. and a lack of imagination. among other things, they couldn't have imagined. how big the country would get and how many people there would be. It's one of those things where It's like statistics.
Darwin Kastle: where if you have a small sample size, you're more likely to get errors, but the larger the sample size. the more accurate the results will be and the more you can trust the results. Well, the more voters we put in the pool.
Darwin Kastle: the safer the results are going to be so it it rewards us for taking in to count the votes of millions of people as opposed to a small number of people.
Darwin Kastle: Many people view the founding fathers as quasi -religious figures, somehow incapable of making errors. but by modern standards of morality and human rights. We know that isn't true.
Darwin Kastle: The most obvious example is how tightly they restricted peoples rights including the right to vote. Are you a woman? No voting for you. Were you black? No voting.
Darwin Kastle: or any other rights for that matter. Did Joan land? Nope. Then no voting for you either. To their credit. They knew. there would be errors. And they knew that laws need to evolve and change over time.
Darwin Kastle: That's why they designed the Constitution so it could be amended. The Constitution was ratified in 1788. A mere three years later, they ratified the first 10 amendments. which are now known as the Bill of Rights.
Darwin Kastle: So it didn't take long for us to figure out the Constitution needed to be a living and evolving document as our morality and our understanding of the world evolved. but Somewhere along the line...
Darwin Kastle: we stop making the needed amendments. In order to fix our democracy, We're gonna need some new ones. So let's just... Get that settled. Our federal government is divided into three branches to allow for a system of checks and balances.
Darwin Kastle: the legislative branch, which is basically Congress. The executive branch, which is centered on the president. and the judicial branch. which is headed by the Supreme Court. it's unlikely we could ever muster the necessary political will to get rid of or replace any of these institutions in part because it would require the cop cooperation of the Australian institutions to do so.
Darwin Kastle: But there are reforms that could be made to them. which would really bring the country into greater alignment with being a true democracy. Whatever the founders intended. When they created our system of government,
Darwin Kastle: There were things they failed to see. They understood the danger of a single person, like a king or president having too much power, in case they were or became corrupt.
Darwin Kastle: Yet they failed to extend that logic further. If it's safer to spread. power out rather than put it all in a single person's hand. Why doesn't that also apply to groups of people?
Darwin Kastle: Is it more dangerous to give power to a small group of people rather than a large group of people that the small group is just a subset of? Yep. The founders created multiple mechanisms to keep power in the hands of the few.
Darwin Kastle: Restricting voting by making it only for white male landowners was just the start. Instead of democratically electing a president by majority rules, They created the Electoral College.
Darwin Kastle: Instead of only having elected representatives represent equal numbers of people, they created the Senate. Based on geography. not population. yeah They didn't know about California, did they?
Darwin Kastle: Like any group of people, the founders had varying reasons and views regarding their actions and how things ended up some truly feared Okay. mob rule. while others agreed to some of these things as a compromise. with other people.
Darwin Kastle: It's important to remember politics has always been messy, even back then. We we may view them and... their documents as Perfect.
Darwin Kastle: But even they didn't view them as perfect. They knew it was a compromise. Almost none of them were completely happy with it. They just felt this was the best they were going to do. in an agreement amongst them but that's what politics is about compromise.
Darwin Kastle: But most of us can agree. They made mistakes. especially if we're applying their plan to the present. Maybe there wasn't a way to find agreement that included pop political power for women and minorities back then.
Darwin Kastle: But it was still wrong. And since then we've had the power to fix it. And we did. It's time to look at the Electoral College the same way. There are three important ways to view the electoral college.
Darwin Kastle: why it was created. what effect it has on our elections, And what do other modern democracies do? The Electoral College was created as a compromise between two groups of founders.
Darwin Kastle: One group wanted Congress to pick the president because they didn't trust... average citizens with a decision. The other group wanted Congress to have nothing to do with the process because they too might become corruptly involved with they might become too corruptly involved with the executive branch as a result.
Darwin Kastle: The compromise. was for states to choose electors that would select the president. So. Not everybody. We didn't trust the average citizens, but not Congress, because that was too few. So somewhere in between there, we're like, oh yeah, states can have electors. So it's not a federal power.
Darwin Kastle: But it's not the power of individual citizens because, you know, they suck. They're stupid. Ah. As this is the case with many things. It didn't go the way the founders expected.
Darwin Kastle: among other things they didn't have political parties back then Once political parties formed, That meant there were fewer candidates for voters to choose from. And that meant one of the reasons the founders hadn't wanted normal citizens to decide was unfounded.
Darwin Kastle: the founders had been concerned there'd be too many candidates for voters to learn about. but Now we have a two -party citizen the two-party system. So basically... There's only two candidates generally.
Darwin Kastle: to be concerned about. knowing should i pick this person or this person and Most people can handle that. Thank you. determination. determination In addition, many states passed laws requiring electors to give up their votes to whoever got the most votes in that state.
Darwin Kastle: which made the process even more democratic. So if 15 million Californians vote for one candidate And 14 million vote. for the other candidate. Is it really fair to give... All of California's 54 electoral votes to the 15 million vote candidate and none of them to the 14 million vote candidate.
Darwin Kastle: Set. Believe. Democratic. This is why we have so many elections where the winner of the popular vote loses. Which is a sure sign of an undemocratic process.
Darwin Kastle: Well, the United States was one of the first democracies There have become many more since our founding. While many look Many took inspiration from our Constitution.
Darwin Kastle: None. That's right. None have adopted an electoral college. All other democracies use a simple popular vote for their elections. Maybe it's time we accept that we made a mistake and...
Darwin Kastle: Join the club. And get rid of the Electoral College. The big problem is that removing the Electoral College would take a constitutional amendment. That's why we need a blue tidal wave in the next two the next two elections.
Darwin Kastle: Because this is one of multiple amendments. that we need to protect democracy in our country's future. We can't make the sort of big swing we need without big wins at the ballot box.
Darwin Kastle: It's painful to think that to get rid of the electoral college We first need to win it. But after a second president. Trump a second Trump presidency The time should be right.
Darwin Kastle: for that kind of big swing. a Part 3. Reality Bites. The GOP have a midterm messaging problem. It's called reality.
Darwin Kastle: With a midterm election coming up, Republican incumbents have two ways to campaign. They can campaign on accomplishments. or they can campaign on promises of future accomplishments.
Darwin Kastle: Both are big problems for the GOP. What makes this situation so clear -cut is the fact that Republicans have a unified government. With a Republican president. a Senate majority, a House majority.
Darwin Kastle: and a supreme court supermajority The last two years have been open for the GeoPedo. push their policies into effect and change the government and the country. to reflect their values and priorities.
Darwin Kastle: Since President Trump, excuse me, since President Biden left office two years ago. The only bills and executive orders get passed. have been Republican ones. In a situation like this, the party in power gets to campaign on their accomplishments while they've held unified power.
Darwin Kastle: the party that's out of this power, in this case, Democrats. get to campaign on what they'll do differently and better if they gain power. This is where things get awkward for the GOP.
Darwin Kastle: Let's start with what they promised voters that got them into power two years ago. lower costs, especially on gas and groceries. No new wars. Mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.
Darwin Kastle: especially those darn criminals, the worst of the worst. Tariffs. that would help the economy by protecting and growing American industry. Let's get more manufacturing back onto to U .S. shores.
Darwin Kastle: ending the war between Russia and Ukraine on day one. and pardoning some of the January 6th riders. Those were their promises. Well, let's see how did they do?
Darwin Kastle: Republicans have actually done work on a few of these. but not in a way designed that actually benefits voters. In President Trump's first week in office, He pardoned all, not some. all of the january 6th for voters week one On the campaign trail, voters were given the impression that the pardon process would be selective and not extended to rioters who attacked police.
Darwin Kastle: Not only did the speed of the process make it clear that no research was carried out. to carefully select candidates But the fact that literally all of them were pardoned made sure that every rider who attacked the police was set free.
Darwin Kastle: If this wasn't bad enough... Close to 100 of the rioters have been arrested again since then on new charges for new crimes. These are hardly the angels that Republicans want you to believe.
Darwin Kastle: Not only has the war between Russia and Ukraine not ended, and definitely not on day one, but we've actually made things harder for Ukraine. Once Republicans took control, they removed financial and military support for Ukraine.
Darwin Kastle: If that isn't bad enough. The U .S. attempts at diplomacy have been laughable. Not only does the administration use private citizens as their chief negotiators instead of professional diplomats with years of experience But one of those private citizens is Trump's son -in -law And the other.
Darwin Kastle: is Steve Witkos. a personal friend of Trump with... and both have numerous financial ties to Russia. Gee, I wonder whose side they're going to be on in negotiations. In addition,
Darwin Kastle: These guys keep... meeting with Russian officials to find out where they stand. but not Ukrainian officials. They actually met with... Ukraine's President Zelenskyy this week.
Darwin Kastle: and it This is the first time I can remember them actually doing so. and It didn't seem like it went great. Hmm. Every time the administration releases ideas about potential peace...
Darwin Kastle: terms they involve ukraine the country being invaded making concessions to Russia. but not any concessions from the invaders who started the war. As you can imagine.
Darwin Kastle: The war seems... far. from over. Hmm. The administration. has begun mass deportations. But it's not going the way many Republican voters were expecting.
Darwin Kastle: The expectation was that ICE would be deporting people who were in the country illegally. starting with people who had committed crimes. The reality has been much harsher.
Darwin Kastle: Not only have ICE been sweeping up people in the country legally with visas, work permits, green cards, asylum hearings, etc. but They have even snatched American citizens off the street because of things like how they look. how they sound. what kind of work they do, that sort of thing.
Darwin Kastle: Not only... Have they been grabbing people who were here legally? But their methods. have been brutal. and often illegal. ramming cars shooting people.
Darwin Kastle: beating people. wearing masks without wearing ID and basically doing whatever they want. People who voted for the GOP have had their spouses Deported.
Darwin Kastle: People serving in the U .S. military have had their spouses deported. The deportions are bad. But the imprisonment might be worse. The people getting grabbed are being put into private prisons without proper nutrition, and proper healthcare. care Over 50 people have died in ICE detention since Trump entered office.
Darwin Kastle: Even people willing to be deported have often found themselves in custody for weeks or months. I guess. It's hard for private prison companies to make loads of profit. if we deport people too fast.
Darwin Kastle: Am I right? No new wars, not so much. Not only did we abduct the president of Venezuela, But we've now been at war with Iran for six months.
Darwin Kastle: after choosing to attack them without any significant provocation. There was even a good deal that we'd successfully negotiated. sitting on the table waiting for approval on the day we attacked.
Darwin Kastle: it seems certain that whatever the next deal is, will be worse than that one. Now that we've killed the leader. and bombed them over and over. As promised.
Darwin Kastle: Trump has used tariffs aggressively. but without. the promised results. manufacturing jobs in the US have actually decreased. since Trump started using tariffs.
Darwin Kastle: Prices of things made in American factories have increased also. as the foreign parts needed by the factories have spiked in cost due to the tariffs. But the thing most voters will focus on is affordability.
Darwin Kastle: Not only Have the GOP not delivered on lowering the cost of things like gas? groceries. healthcare and housing. but their actions since the election have increased the cost of those things.
Darwin Kastle: The war with Iran and the trade wars caused by tariffs has spiked the cost of gas and groceries. the Republican -led Congress actually choose not. To renew.
Darwin Kastle: healthcare subsidies that were helping keep healthcare care costs and check Big corporations are buying up homes causing the price of housing to rise one of the administration's few noteworthy accomplishments.
Darwin Kastle: has been making the Trump tax cuts for the wealthy permanent. but at a time when they're driving up the cost of living for the average voter. I'm not sure that's something Republicans want to brag about on the campaign trail.
Darwin Kastle: Not only do Republicans lack accomplishments to run on in the midterms. But they've also... got to try to cover up the fact they've been actively making things worse. So what do they run on?
Darwin Kastle: They could try promising and to make things better like the Democrats are doing. But why would any voters believe them at this point? It's like giving the keys of your house to the guy who burned down your last house.
Darwin Kastle: Apparently, that's left them with just two other strategies. Fear -mongering and lying. At this point. Neither of these are surprising moves by the GOP. In the past years Every election, that was suddenly there was suddenly a migrant caravan heading towards the U .S., ready to invade.
Darwin Kastle: In 2024. Haitians in the country legally. were supposedly eating people's dogs, according to Republicans. but even if those tire claims might have worked again.
Darwin Kastle: They're useless now. because it would undermine Republican claims that their ICE operations are doing so great. if they're mass deportations have been so successful.
Darwin Kastle: Why are they letting people in stay here who are eating dogs and stuff like that? This time... The fear -mongering is about communism.
Darwin Kastle: Beware of all the dangerous commies the Democrats want you to vote for. Never mind that there aren't any Democrats running as kind as communists. or on platforms that even resemble communism. If anything...
Darwin Kastle: The current administration are the ones looking like communists as they keep taking ownership stakes in private companies. but As we know. when it comes to Republicans.
Darwin Kastle: Eh. Facts are totally optional. Which brings us to strategy number two. Just... Lie. Sure, the economy is terrible, but many Republicans just say it's going great anyways. Sure. The war is going poorly.
Darwin Kastle: But the GOP just say that it's going great. And it's a wonderful thing America is doing for the world. Sure, tariffs are paid by American companies and passed on to American consumers.
Darwin Kastle: But... Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Besson still insist that they're paid for by other countries. Then why did we just give big corporations a tariff refund, I wonder?
Darwin Kastle: There is a certain percentage of people who will believe every lie that Republicans tell. I mean, Even at his lowest approval rating, there are still always at least 30 % of Americans who say they approve of the job that Trump is doing.
Darwin Kastle: Sure. Some of them are just racist. But surely many of them are just being duped by right -wing media. Still. The lies are going to stop working for lots of people who they've worked on in the past.
Darwin Kastle: First of all, Because so many of their past lies have turned out to be just that. Lies. Are the GOP just the boy who cried wolf? i mean in this case replace wolf with transgender immigrant communist who wants to make you gay The second reason lying is so much harder for Republicans this election is the economy.
Darwin Kastle: Not only did the GOP have total control of the government that controls the economy, but the economy is so bad. But even people trapped in the Fox News bubble can see it as plain as day.
Darwin Kastle: Normally, people in the president's party running for office during an economic catastrophe like this might try distancing themselves from the president. But not only would Trump never allow that.
Darwin Kastle: He's been in power so long. that has driven anyone with a backbone out of the party by now. I'm sure none of that matters because who wouldn't want to vote for all those charming and totally relatable rich people sucking up to Trump? Does the GOP have running for office?
Darwin Kastle: I guess we're going to find out in about two months. This has been Episode 8. of the big swing. The Big Swing is written and read for you by me, Darwin Castle. Please be sure to like, share, and subscribe.
Darwin Kastle: Until next time. It's me, Darwin Kessel.
