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Episode 14: Finals Forecast - Women - NBL1 East 2023
205 Plays2 years ago
Apologies for the delay - but here is Lachy and Squin's Finals Forecast for the NBL1 East women's competition for 2023
And my word! It's a tight race, with the possibility of 3 teams finishing the season ties with a win/loss record of 11 & 11. But which 3 teams will it be?
You gotta listen to find out!
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Transcript
Introduction to NBL One East 2023
00:00:11
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of East Got Game, an unofficial podcast featuring the NBL One East competition for 2023. My name's Jacinta. I'm from the Central Coast Crusaders. And back, back, back, back, back again is Locky France from the Sutherland Sharks. Hello, Locky. Hey, Squint. How's it going?
00:00:32
Speaker
Good,
Forecasting Women's Finals in Round 12
00:00:33
Speaker
good, good. We have just wrapped up an episode about forecasting the men's finals. Now, this episode is dedicated to the women's competition, finals forecasting, we're calling it. And yeah, we've just finished round 12 of NBL One East. We're recording this on the Monday the 12th after the long weekend, so there was no basketball
00:00:55
Speaker
Thankfully for some, maybe not so much for others, but we thought we'd take this opportunity, the break in the competition, to do a finals forecast just before we head into round 13 to 18.
00:01:11
Speaker
And especially because if you continue to stay in the winner's circle, you more or less may not get a break between now and NBL1 Nationals if you manage to go all the way. So that's why it was the perfect timing, I think. What do you ever think, Lockie? I certainly think it is perfect timing and thank you to the clubs for making it so close this season. You know, it gives us plenty to talk about.
00:01:35
Speaker
Definitely. And that's why it's so exciting. And that's why we say on social media, don't sleep on the East. So the idea of this episode is that we're going to do a bit of a finals forecasting going through the current ladder as it stands after round 12. Just to see, just to kind of discuss the road ahead for a lot of these teams, try and make some loose predictions for who's going to end up in the top eight leading to finals. Will some teams stay consistent and stay in that position? Will they drop?
00:02:05
Speaker
and all of the other variables and considerations to think about when we're talking about these games.
Manly Waringa Sea Eagles: Dominance and Challenges
00:02:11
Speaker
So top of the table as it stands is still the manly Waringa Sea Eagles with a win-loss record of 13 and 2. Yeah so we'll certainly a lot will hinge on their game against Setter of Excellence but I've got them going 20 and 2 as per the numbers so far which you'd expect from
00:02:32
Speaker
The top team, of course, if you're not aware, our latest mail is that the top four teams will get the second chance in finals and fifth through eighth will play elimination finals in the opening round. So that top four spot is definitely massive. But mainly, so they play Hornsby, Corinne Guy twice and Hills. So given the current standings, you'd probably expect those to be three pretty bankable wins.
00:02:57
Speaker
They also play Camber and Maitland in a couple of tricky games and then Center of Excellence, who they haven't faced yet, and Sutherland, who they touched up at home earlier in the season. But Squin, I think you're the expert on this one because the one weakness that we've seen from Manly is Nicole Hutchins, a true center, and that is what they'll face against Camber as well.
00:03:22
Speaker
Yeah, I think the one big thing that came out of that game last round between Manly and Crusaders was definitely, as she said, it was the exploitation of the inside game. So Nicole Hutchins having one of probably her best game of the last two seasons in my eyes. Even when they were double teaming her down the post, she would find a way to either shoot over them or shoot through them. Manly have still got Canberra to come with Izzy Bourne.
00:03:46
Speaker
who's just coming off a 40 piece against the COE. So she's certainly someone not to take lightly. Definitely someone we can probably expect in a WNBL roster for next season. The other thing with Izzy Bourne is that she can play off the drive. She can shoot a three. She showcased her whole skill set against COE. It wasn't just all inside the paint. Yeah, it certainly warrants a 50-50. I think Canberra could perhaps sneak away with a win in this situation, Lockie.
00:04:15
Speaker
And similarly in the game against Centre of Excellence, which I have marked down as a win at the moment, but it's bye.
00:04:22
Speaker
minimal amount is Isla Juffamans for Centre of Excellence. Yeah, and they haven't played each other yet, which are wild. Like again, we've talked about a couple of times in some of our past episodes about how weird this draw is where some teams have already played each other twice and then come around 13. It's the first time they're going to play each other for the whole season and will be the only time they play each other for the season in some situations, especially with this manly COE. They might not play each other again until the final.
00:04:50
Speaker
So yeah, I think Isla Jufferman is going to be a big factor for that game. And I think it's also they've got a young Santa named Sarah Portlock as well for COE. And she I wonder if she's going to get more court time given her stature.
00:05:07
Speaker
Certainly, but I mean, not to just dump on Manly for five minutes straight. I mean, we've seen throughout the season just how good their team basketball is. I think if there's one team of a select few in this competition that can adjust to a weakness after it's been found, it's probably Manly. Another one you've got down as 50-50 is Maitland, but I imagine that Manly would definitely
00:05:33
Speaker
Yeah, it's probably, it's probably more just a game against a potential finals team than a game that's actually 50-50. It's more, yeah. And I think Manly are definitely red hot favorites in that one, particularly as, uh, Maitland, as we'll get to shortly, uh, soon to lose one of this to our players.
Newcastle Falcons: Predictions and Strategies
00:05:50
Speaker
Yeah, that's right. Uh, but before we get to that, uh, the second team on the ladder at the moment is Newcastle Falcons. Their win lost record is 12 and two.
00:06:01
Speaker
Mathematical prediction at the end of round 18 is 18 and 4. So very interesting. Bankers you've got here as Hornsby, Koringa, Inner West, Penrith and Illawarra. I think they're pretty safe bets. 50-50s you got Maitland and Bankstown. Talk me through those two.
00:06:20
Speaker
Well, Maitland have already delivered Newcastle loss this season. And Bankstown, if they have Cappy, Capri Mora on court, definitely could be a very difficult proposition for Newcastle because I think the main question for Newcastle is, they've been short-handed for the best part of forever. I mean, but they keep winning. And can they keep winning?
00:06:44
Speaker
And tricky games like that, especially against the team you've already lost to in Maitland. They're not sure they're both Ws as the numbers are shaking out. And considering Newcastle, similarly to Manly, are also a team that lack a true centre. Rachel McGinniskin did start the season with Newcastle as the centre, but I've been informed recently that it's likely she won't return for the rest of the season.
00:07:12
Speaker
So they're going to be without that presence. And so it's just as well that Newcastle got the win over COE last round in overtime without that centre presence. So, I mean, Manley and Newcastle are very, very similar on paper that even makes, you know, Manley's Hope beating COE even more alive, I would say.
00:07:35
Speaker
But for Newcastle, yeah, like you said, they are doing it tough. They're lower numbers. But I feel like they're very well disciplined in terms of everyone knows their role and they stick to that role very well. You know, Kingham coming in.
00:07:50
Speaker
shooting threes as she does. Pretty good distributor on the wing as well. Making sure the likes of Curtin and Munger are getting the right shots in the right places. But also Sophie Clemens being great in that respect too. And I have really enjoyed how much she has grown in confidence with getting her outside game back as well through the season. So I think having her as an anchor for that team has been really important for Newcastle.
00:08:17
Speaker
Certainly, I remember as far back as round one when they came down to Sutherland and played with the outmonger, how well-drilled they were. Whether Kingham or Kleeman was bringing the ball up, it was very noticeable that they knew exactly what set they'd be running given whose hands the ball was in on each occasion.
00:08:38
Speaker
And you did ask the question before, Lockie, you know, they have been short handed and how long can they keep it up? Newcastle being Newcastle in terms of their club history and culture, they'll keep it up until the very end. I can't see them going away lightly whatsoever. No, they'll drag themselves over the line if they have to.
00:08:57
Speaker
Yes, I totally agree. And you made a great point here. The game against Comets will be a big question mark whether Shyla Hill will be at Asia Cup. What are you predicting? Certainly a possibility, isn't it? Still haven't had the squad cut down. It's getting very close.
00:09:17
Speaker
There's only 18 players left in the mix and they don't all play the same position as Shyla Hill. But I've currently got Newcastle falling to Comets and Norse in tight games, especially Norse. And I certainly think that without...
00:09:32
Speaker
Comets don't have Shylar if she is at age a cup and best of luck to her. That's definitely one Newcastle can pick up. And it would also put an extra gap between themselves and Comets and could slot them into a top three spot if not a top two. They've already beaten Norse this season as well, which I've got them, you know, just on the on the balance of probability just losing. But she comments without Shylar and then Norse who they've already beaten. I've got them 18 and four. They could finish 19 and three or even 20 and two.
00:10:02
Speaker
Yeah, see, top teams, Comets and Norse say, I think Norse will probably get the split on Newcastle.
Norse Bears: Schedule and Team Chemistry
00:10:10
Speaker
But Comets, I think Newcastle will beat Comets next time they come across each other. With or without Shyla? It's going to be tougher as an away game. I think they'll win without Shyla. Yeah, I think if you've got Shyla and Vanessa Penussis there against a shorthanded roster, it gets pretty tough.
00:10:29
Speaker
Okay, so coming third currently on the ladder after round 12 is North Spares. Their win-loss record is 11 and 2. And mathematical prediction after round 18 is 20 and 2, which is pretty healthy. Bankers, Inner West, Panareth, and Inner West again. So they got Inner West twice in a short period of time. 50-50s Canberra and Aubrey Wodonga. So I'll let you take it from here, Locky.
00:10:57
Speaker
First, we'll talk about In A West. I want to see when they play Penrith. But In A West twice, yes, they're bankers, but would it really be beyond Leilani Mitchell to bury 11 of 13 from beyond the arc or something like that to happen in one of the games? You know, anytime you've got someone like Leilani Mitchell on the court, it's dangerous. Don't get me wrong, I do think Norse will get all three of those games. And Penrith, if Tali is back,
00:11:27
Speaker
Yeah, they play them on around 16 on July 15th. Ah, so Talia to her if she even goes to Asia Cup with New Zealand and his fit would be back by then for Penrith. But we'll move on to the 50-50s because these are the teams that are fighting for final spots.
00:11:46
Speaker
But they are also two of the more improved rosters in recent weeks. As we mentioned, Izzy Bourne is back in Canberra. Chloe Tulliac's away with the boomerangs at the moment at the Global Games for Intellectual Disabilities. And we also saw Bianca Dufelmeyer back on the roster for Canberra. So they've certainly had some improvements.
00:12:07
Speaker
And Aubrey Wodonga, they've added Michaela Pivik and Mallory Bates in recent weeks. And Lauren Jackson's name is still sitting there on that roster. She hasn't played a game yet. Whilst those are the tricky games that they should win, they are far trickier than they looked two or three weeks ago.
00:12:25
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. All those late additions have certainly thrown a spanner in the works for some of these teams. But as fans, makes it more exciting for us. I think the Canberra Norse game is going to be really interesting. But like you mentioned before, Leilani Mitchell has the capacity to make 11 from 13 stories in a game. She will also be met with a tenacious Kate Seabomb.
00:12:52
Speaker
So I don't, I can't imagine Kate letting Leilani get that many threes, but I think defensively in terms of match-ups, Norse will probably get the upper hand. And especially Norse have the one thing that you can't coach, unless you've coached the core group for a long period of time, is that history with each other. Ah, 100%. It has won them games.
00:13:15
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, flipping results. Yeah, they've won games and not just this year in past seasons, just based on how long they've all played together. And when they get new players, they just it's it kind of feels like like the Boomers culture, like the Australian national men's team Boomers culture in that when a new player comes in, you know, you you come in and you are part of our culture. You know, we've built this culture.
00:13:45
Speaker
You can't destroy it. That's right.
Sydney Comets: Performance and Challenges
00:13:47
Speaker
It's going to take a lot more to destroy. You almost have to destroy it from the inside out. Yeah. But even then, it's hard to get on the inside to be able to do that. And yeah, and if you don't fit in with our culture, you're not going to be part of this team for very long. No, no, it's going to be like oil and water. Yeah.
00:14:04
Speaker
So with that mathematical prediction of Norse ending the season on 20 and 2, that would actually put them tied second with Manly, who you've also mathematically predicted as ending on 20 and 2. So, which I really like, I really hope that Norse and Manly can avoid playing each other in that initial 1v4, 2v3 situation. I only want to see them play again in each, I don't even want to see them in the semi.
00:14:30
Speaker
Grand final, rematch of when Snelly was up there for Manly at Maitland, getting them the win. Yes. And that was a game that was going all North's way until like the last few minutes and it just went all Manly's way. And I feel like they just snatched it, the championship from under North's nose. And it would be very, it would be very full circle because Manly won that and then their women's program kind of dipped a fair bit. And now they're on the way back up.
00:15:01
Speaker
Yeah, definitely. And, uh, that was so long ago that Callie Hoverta was playing for North. Yes.
00:15:08
Speaker
Okay, moving right along in technically fourth place with the same win-loss record as Norse, but sitting fourth based on percentage, you've got Sydney Comets, win-loss record 11 and 2, also a team that had a very strong start to the season. Mathematical prediction after round 18 is 19 and 3, which will put them technically above Newcastle. Bankers, they've got Hornsby, Kuringai Spiders.
00:15:36
Speaker
guaranteed win. But I'm sure Christina Moore from Hornsby will still have herself a double double nonetheless. Well, I just on that, I don't know if Christina is going to be around much longer. Because I heard she has to go back and knock off the last bit of her degree. Oh, I see. So she's got to go back and do the study, but not necessarily court. Yeah. Hmm. Interesting. She's also just recently signed with a sports agency too. So I'm going to try and keep a very close eye to see
00:16:06
Speaker
what comes of that partnership because hopefully that I really want to see her on a WMBL roster. I want to see her on one specific WMBL roster. Sydney? The flames! I'm like surely it's the flames because I mean that's just too too easy of an answer right but it wasn't too easy it's kind of like
00:16:24
Speaker
taking an open layup and it's like, am I really this open? But we digress. Comets though, they look like they have a pretty, and Comets next to Bandits and we'll obviously get to Bandits later, but Comets look like they've got a pretty tough road ahead. They certainly do. Yeah, they've got Albury-Wodonga home and away and Bankstown.
00:16:51
Speaker
And then they've got Centre of Excellence, Home and Away, Newcastle and North. And of course, the reason they've got Aubrey Widonga and Centre of Excellence twice is because those games were on the weekend where they had to postpone their games due to health and safety protocols. So they still have to squeeze those games in somewhere. And where's it going to happen? Well, when and where, you know, could they play like a
00:17:16
Speaker
double-header on the road or a double-header at home against someone just to try and fit them in but also we this question at this point is going to keep coming up and it won't just be with Comets it'll be with another team as well is what happens if Shyla heel goes to the Asia Cup because Comets played COE Newcastle and Aubrey Woodonga during the week of the Asia Cup. The Comets have to play Aubrey twice
00:17:40
Speaker
And obviously, COE twice. Well, yeah, because COE women have to go overseas for a World Cup, or some of them do anyway.
00:17:47
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. I'm pretty confident that most of the standing roster of COE at the moment, I have been picked to go to the World Cup in July. Yeah, they're really, really struggling for time to fit in that extra game. And they already have a double header that weekend where they play Comets up here. They go to Hills on the Sunday and then that's their last game is June 25th. So I'm sure people with far greater logistical skills than I, madly trying to figure out what to do.
00:18:17
Speaker
might have to fit it in on a Tuesday. Cause I know that to make up for another game center of excellence played three games within a like five days or something. So they might have to do something similar. So yes, like you said, I was going to be a big question mark around, uh, Shyla Hills where Shyla Hills going to be. Um, but, uh, in terms of the 50 fifties, I have a feeling that playing Aubrey twice, I reckon Aubrey can, I reckon Aubrey can get a split.
00:18:46
Speaker
Regardless of who's there. Yeah, regardless of who's there, especially now that Aubrey have boosted their personnel. I reckon regardless of who's there, I reckon Aubrey can get a split. 50-50 you got Maitland, but I can see Comets regardless of who they got. Comets will get Maitland. Certainly. Newcastle and North. I think that's pretty well as it stands, as you mentioned. It's going to be very testing times for Comets in the tail end of the season.
00:19:14
Speaker
Yeah, it seems like the mathematical prediction says 19 and 3, but that could be actually anything between 20 and 2 or 16 and 6. Massive difference. Yeah.
Centre of Excellence: Tough Road Ahead?
00:19:24
Speaker
Massive. So yeah, as we were talking a lot about the Center of Excellence and Comets, they are actually next on the ladder. Their win-loss record is 13 and 4. Mathematical prediction, 14 and 8. Because they have an absolute murderer's run home
00:19:42
Speaker
But again, it also depends on Shyla Hill. So they play Hills in their final game of the season on June 25th. But before that, they've got to play Comet, or I think it's mainly this weekend, then North's, then Comet's, and then that Hills game. And they've also got to fit that other Comet's game in somewhere. So four games against fellow top four opposition. Another excellent for fifth now, so against top four opposition.
00:20:09
Speaker
Which is really interesting because last round, you know, in round 12, they lost to Newcastle in overtime. And they also had a very close game against Aubrey Wodonga. So I know that when they went to Aubrey, I think they only had seven. Yes, because they had players at basketball with our borders.
00:20:29
Speaker
Yep, and just Petrie as well, who's been, you know, outstanding for them, nearly averaging a double double for COE. I think she was out with illness, unfortunately. So they've also had some testing times in the last couple of rounds. Yeah, lower numbers, not dropping some games, but being really, truly tested. So I feel like potential to get one, two, four big Ws if they have a full roster.
00:20:59
Speaker
Certainly, yeah, I mean, it says 14 and eight, but that's just because they've that prediction 14 and eight that it's all the results are close. I didn't note down the margins that were expected, but they're all very close. And, and yeah, like we said earlier, it's round 13 and mainly because they are just playing each other for the first time. So.
00:21:19
Speaker
How likely do you think, um, COE, uh, Coach Herbert is going to rest some of his star players leading into the World Cup? Do you think he'll, um, still use these NBA one East games to exercise his full rotation and roster as he would at the World Cup? Or do you feel like you'll take the opportunity to rest some players and, um, you know, probably refine some skills of the bench players in these situations? I,
00:21:50
Speaker
Let me just see, because it could, it's one of those things that could come down to like, day to day, result to result kind of thing, as to what chance they are of getting a top four as well. Because they're two games behind top four now.
00:22:06
Speaker
You know, if they get to this point where they're like, okay, we're going to finish fifth or sixth. Yeah, maybe, but also a World Cup is more important than MBL one East. Sorry to anyone who thought otherwise. Uh, but it is. So, I mean, I would say he'd probably get stuck getting into World Cup kind of mode.
00:22:26
Speaker
but I don't think you'll fully get into like, okay, well this is fully World Cup prep until they're either definitely in or definitely out of a top four spot. Which is actually what we saw last year in the Wild Card Series, ironically against COE. Yeah, some teams were beating COE by 30 or 40 and Sutherland played COE in the Wild Card Series with like two weeks left in the regular season.
00:22:53
Speaker
And as soon as it became obvious that Sutherland weren't going to beat COE by the 30 or 40 they needed to secure the wildcard spot, it became a finals training run. It really did. So I wouldn't be surprised if COE do something similar once their spot's locked in. Yeah, it sounds like they've actually got even more, if not more to think about than the rest of the regular teams going into finals time with all of those other things that they have to take care of.
00:23:19
Speaker
Um, but certainly, I mean, I think we can still be confident that COE women are going to make the top six. Oh, a hundred percent. Because I mean, if you look, uh, six at the moment is eight and six and then seven and seven. So I don't think enough of those teams are going to, uh, jump what COE currently have. Um,
00:23:44
Speaker
Also, for them, it's also about finals because they're going to come straight back from a World Cup into finals. They're young, they've got fresh legs. Young, fresh legs, yeah. They recover quickly.
00:23:55
Speaker
I wish I did. Yes. Oh gosh, missed those days.
Sutherland Sharks: Key Games and Player Availability
00:24:01
Speaker
But next on the ladder is Sutherland Sharks. Their win-loss record after round 12 is 10 wins and five losses. Mathematical prediction after round 18 is 15 and seven.
00:24:14
Speaker
Bankers, they've got Illawarra and Hornsby Corringoy. 50-50s, Aubrey, Wodonga, Canberra and Maitland. Tell me first about Maitland in 50-50-50. Well, it's an interesting one because if we finish talking about Shyla Hill going to Asia Cup, let's talk about Lauren Nicholson going to Asia Cup potentially. So if Lauren Nicholson does go to Asia Cup, she'll be unavailable for the Maitland game and the Hornsby game.
00:24:44
Speaker
at least. But Maitland, Mila Woskovich is, I think may have left for college or has at least played her last game before she goes to college. So that's one that Sutherland, I think they would maybe not expect, but they'd like to think they could get a win without Lauren Nicholson on the court against Maitland and then without Hornsby as well without Lauren Nicholson.
00:25:10
Speaker
Uh, so I think that's one where they, I mean, that's, that's the one I'm saying they will certainly be able to get if they turn up on the day. Although that meant when Mustang's crowd is not fun to play in front of, if it's anything like it is sitting in front of it as part of the away team. So I went up there last year and it is a madhouse in there, but I think.
00:25:36
Speaker
Aubrey with Donga and Canberra and it's gonna keep coming up. Other two really, really interesting games. And it stands for the same reason as we've mentioned before, just all the new players they've got. It comes as part of a very tough end to the season for Sutherland. So they go to Aubrey, they go to Canberra and they have a home game against Manly sandwiched between those. So that is a very, very difficult final three games before finals for them.
00:26:03
Speaker
The Aubrey-Wodonga, the Maitland game, I think the Sharks, whether like even without Nicholson, I think the Sharks will find a way to win that Maitland one. Even if they've got Mila there, I think. And with Mila and no Loz, I think Sharks will still beat Maitland on that occasion. But the Aubrey and Canberra ones, they're going to be so important because if they, I think if Sutherland dropped those two, oof,
00:26:29
Speaker
They're going to be scraping in for top six if they drop those two. Yeah, if they were 13-9, then you're looking at maybe you need one or two results to go your way just to make sure that you finish top six. And you really don't want to finish seventh or eighth. You don't want to be away in an elimination final first up. No, no, that's literally the hardest possible outcome. Eighth, away to COE. Yeah, no thanks. Oh no, but they would play fifth, wouldn't they?
00:26:58
Speaker
If they finished eighth, they would play fifth. If you finished seventh, you'd play sixth and you'd have to go away to a country team because it would be Maitland or Bree or Canberra at this stage. That's tough. Kind of not too, too far behind, but kind of in terms of win-loss record, it looks a little bit behind, but it's probably just because of the difference in amount of games played.
Maitland's Form and Crucial Matchups
00:27:19
Speaker
But Maitland with a win-loss record of eight and six,
00:27:24
Speaker
Mathematical prediction if all goes well is 11 and 11 to end the season. Bankers Central Coast, Illawarra and Panareth.
00:27:33
Speaker
50-50 is Aubrey Woodonga. About the bankers, Illawarra have been coming into, you know, they've been playing a little bit better the last couple of rounds, but I can't see anyone on that roster really shutting down Sydney Hunter. But given that the Central Coast have had such a monumental win against Manly Waringa last round, I think this one could be very, very close matchup.
00:27:59
Speaker
Yeah, these are if well, I call them bankers because they're the games you need to not only expect yourselves to win, but you need to expect the teams above you win. They're games you need to win, but they're not really. And especially now that Central Coast have just knocked off Manly, is that Penrith play Maitland on July 9th. So that could see Talia Tupaya playing for Penrith. We're not sure.
00:28:25
Speaker
Not really sure on that one exactly what's going on there, but I mean, they're bankers, but they're not 100% locked them in games by any stretch of the imagination for any of those games. Yeah, I agree. And because Central Coast, yeah, coming off that really good game, the last time Central Coast and Maitland played, like the Crusaders just didn't turn up that day.
00:28:47
Speaker
And Maitland were firing on all cylinders. Next to their game against Newcastle, where they won, was probably one of their best games when they played against Central Coast. So it'd be interesting to see if they can back up and do it again. But it will be on their home court this time, so they will have that edge over the Crusaders in that account.
00:29:05
Speaker
Yeah, then they still got games, like you said, against Sutherland, Manly and Newcastle. So that's going to be super tough. Newcastle is likely going to, you know, really be gunning for that split. Manly, I can see winning Sutherland, as we mentioned, probably a bit touch and go, maybe depending on personnel.
00:29:22
Speaker
Definitely, yes. We know Mila Woshkovich is out going to college at some point very soon at All River Donger game. Well, I've got it pegged as a loss for Maitland anyway and probably more likely now with the additions to the All River Donger roster. But I guess a loss also rides on how well Madison Washington does for Maitland, their new second import.
00:29:44
Speaker
You know, she had a couple of games, but she's had two weeks of training under her belt now to really get into the swing of things with the team. She can produce, then very much offset the loss of Mila. And given that it's, you know, it's kind of sounding like now this next Sutherland and Maitland game is going to be super important for both teams. What are some of the matchups that you're looking forward to or think are going to be crucial?
00:30:08
Speaker
for each team to give themselves the best chance. Live white in the paint for Sutherland. I like referring to her as like a lighthouse in the paint. It doesn't matter how big you are. It doesn't matter how fast you are. It doesn't matter how strong. You're not getting her out the way. She's not moving.
00:30:24
Speaker
So I would like to see Liv White, how well she goes just against Maitland, I guess against Washington. I don't know, maybe Fabro, a lot of Fabro, maybe against Shakira Riley, just throwing, especially if Nicholson's not there, just throwing best player on best player kind of thing, which is what Sutherland did against Hornsby. They threw Lauren Nicholson on Christina Moore all game. And I mean, Christina actually drew 4,000 Nicholson, but
00:30:50
Speaker
And I think that's an option that you have a bit in this league is that you can guard players with less regard to size because it's not that big a league. And that's why, you know, some of them were able to guard more with Nicholson because Nicholson is fairly tall for her position. And it's a pretty undersized team for Hornsby. I think in terms of matchups, you know, Olivia White, Sydney Hunter, I think that would be a great matchup because they're both super strong and both love a rebound.
00:31:18
Speaker
They certainly do. Yeah, that will be fun as well. Yeah. And in that respect, you know, if Shaq is going to have the task of guarding Fabro, who's going to have the task from Maitland? You know, if Maitland doesn't have Watchkawitch, if she's not playing, who's going to have the task of guarding Matty Norris? Well, that could be...
00:31:36
Speaker
It could be white on Washington Hunter on Norris. Yeah, that probably seems like a closer matchup actually, now you mention it. They've got some backups, so I quite like the sounds of those matchups. So that's definitely going to be a pretty good game to keep our eye on as well.
Aubrey Wodonga: Playoff Strategies
00:31:52
Speaker
Watch out for the Shaq attack.
00:31:53
Speaker
Getting into our last few teams, we've got Aubrey Wodonga Bandits who are making a real run at it in this tail end of the season. Their win-loss record is 7-7. Mathematical prediction is also 11-11, just like Maitland who we just spoke about.
00:32:09
Speaker
As a fan, Connor would like to see two teams tied on the win-loss record and let it come down to the wire of results of other games impacting the results of someone else. As a fan, I say that, but we do have friends in each team, so we also hope that that doesn't happen to them.
00:32:27
Speaker
We have friends in every team. We have friends in every team. We just love basketball guys. We just love basketball. We're a fan of basketball and everyone in it. But yeah, 11 and 11, Bankers Central Coast. That will be a way, so Aubrey will host Central Coast. And so I think that's pretty much guaranteed that Aubrey will win that one. 50-50s, Bankstown, Canberra, Maitland. And top team, COE, Norse, Comets, Sutherland.
00:32:56
Speaker
Yeah, so I think this is another one. We've spoken the men's episode about Illawarra. You can throw the mathematical prediction out the window. I don't think you can do it to the same extent with Aubrey Widonga just because of their tough schedule to finish things off.
00:33:11
Speaker
but they can certainly do much better than the 11 and 11 they have. Playing Sutherland at home late in the season, that will certainly be a big one for them. I wanna say more than 11, I just don't know where the extra wins are gonna come from and are they going to, I think they'll win all their 50-50s.
00:33:37
Speaker
I think they will get over Maitland, Bankstown and Canberra, even with Izzy Bourne. It's kind of the team with the three new players against the team with the one new player kind of thing. And I think on the balance, Canberra, Aubrey Woodonga will get the win. Certainly going, I think that Sutherland game is certainly the one where they should be eyeing off their best chance at victory. Comets as well, depending on the Shyla thing, but I definitely think Sutherland taking on Sutherland in Aubrey Woodonga really late in the season.
00:34:05
Speaker
part of a really tough stretch for Sutherland. It's not going to be easy, but I think that can get them to 12 and 10. Yeah, I agree. I think Aubrey Wodonga can definitely take that Sutherland game. Like we said, extra personnel, but I think they'll have the edge on the inside game because they've still got Ash Hannon, they've now got Mallory to add to the list as well, then the second import.
00:34:31
Speaker
Yeah, she's got a really, really nice touch under the basket. She's probably only got one or two games under a belt. I would really like if she got a few more touches in their offense to have some more scoring opportunities.
00:34:43
Speaker
Um, they came very close to COE in the last round. I feel like if they kind of gave Mallory Bates and more scoring opportunities and took away from some others, there are others in that team that I know it's probably their role to be a scorer, but now that they've got some backup, there's some shots that they probably don't need to be taking. Uh, and I think that little tweak will put Aubrey make Aubrey even more competitive.
00:35:10
Speaker
But yeah, I think for those reasons, they can definitely beat Sutherland. Where the Comets have Shyla, that's gonna be a very, very good contest. Very good contest. That is gonna be really fun because now they've got Michaela Piric, who is all world defense, is all world everything.
00:35:25
Speaker
And we also don't, as we mentioned with Comets, we don't know when that rescheduled second game's going to happen. Plenty to unpack. I do think Norse will get them. I think in the Norse game you could probably say they'll get over the top of Orrruudonga, but even that's less sure than it was. I think you can bank four wins for them, and then there's definitely
00:35:48
Speaker
I think there's at least two more in there for them if they turn up each and every week. And I think they can get to 13 and 9. If they end up with 13 and 9, I mean that would be just under centre of excellence. Just under Sutherland too with that mathematical prediction that would go up a good couple of spots. Yeah, I think if they finish 13 and 9, I think 7th would be probably the worst they would do. Not great, but better than 8th. Oh, anything's better than 8th.
00:36:17
Speaker
No, except nine. Except nine. And so rolling on, we've got Canberra Nationals who are next.
Canberra Nationals: Overcoming a Shaky Start
00:36:24
Speaker
Their current win-loss record is seven and eight. Mathematical prediction to end the season is 10 and 12. Another interesting scheduling.
00:36:35
Speaker
point is that they haven't played Illawarra yet and they play them twice the next five rounds and they've also played hills so you could probably guarantee that they'll bank those games. Canberra have had a really up and down season so far. They really have injuries and ins and outs. Now they've got Izzy born but they are seven and eight and the teams above them either have the unions on the board or also improve themselves greatly. So they'll have a new advantage in Izzy but they've certainly given themselves a lot of work to do.
00:37:03
Speaker
They're similar to the Illawarra men's team. Is it going to be too little too late because it's like the trains about to leave and they're still chasing the train down. Yeah, really shaky start to the season. Like you said, injuries, also inconsistent personnel. Like there were some, you know, I think they're also a team this season who
00:37:22
Speaker
haven't had a consistent starting five because of the changing personnel. They also didn't have their coach for the first couple rounds I think because Nat was still coming down off the WMBLCs with Adelaide so that's fair enough. But yeah the Aubrey-Wodonga game is going to be really interesting but I think they can really challenge Sutherland.
00:37:40
Speaker
Even with Nicholson, because I like the matchup between Lizzie Tonks and Nicholson. They're both, you know, both great scorers and facilitators, but also really great on ball defenders. So that's a really nice matchup. But I do think Norse and Manly are going to have the edge over Canberra in the closing rounds. Yeah, I think it's pretty straightforward for them.
00:38:01
Speaker
Yeah, I think like having Izzy born there for Canberra will be an advantage against Manly and also a little bit against Sutherland, but not to the same extent. But I don't think against Manly it's going to be a game changer. Although she did just drop 40 against us. Yeah. No, now we're going back. I can't even remember what I said at the start of this episode. I'm pretty sure I said that that will be the main game changer and now I'm just going back and contradicting myself.
00:38:26
Speaker
You know what i think i will renege i know that easy boy is gonna be the x factor against manly and be a really serious threat but i just think the depth now having a proper thing the depth of the manly bench is probably going to win manly that game. It will go deep into the fourth quarter that game.
00:38:44
Speaker
Yeah, what's to do for Canberra?
Bankstown Bruins: Playoff Prospects?
00:38:47
Speaker
And then the final team that are in finals contention for the women's competition is Bankstown Bruins. Also a bit of a mixed bag this season. Their win-loss record is 6-8 with another also possible mathematical prediction of 11-11 to end the season.
00:39:04
Speaker
They've got Hills, Illawarra, Central Coast, Inner West and Hills again. So another team who's playing an opposition twice in five rounds.
00:39:16
Speaker
despite the season being 18 rounds. You guys can do the math on that absurdity. Aubrey Woodonga to come, also Comets and Newcastle. Love to know your thoughts on the matchups with the Aubrey Woodonga game in Bankstown. Question first, is Cappy Capri-Morrow going to be suiting up for them? I mean, if LJ is there and no Cappy, then there's not a lot for them to match up.
00:39:45
Speaker
With insider, they'll have Britney Wright, but in terms of starters, they're certainly on the quantity side. They're not going to have quite the personnel to match up with Aubrey Wodonga in the front court. It's certainly going to be a tough one.
00:40:02
Speaker
Yeah, I agree. I think even in terms of skill set, I think just the likes of Hannan and Jackson or Hannan and Mallory Bates in terms of reach got the advantage. So you've got a good note here, you know, if Central Coast and Bruins, you know, Bruins can guarantee a win against Central Coast given that if Cappie's out.
00:40:25
Speaker
The likes of Hutchins and even when they play Inner West, Dompkins are going to have an opportunity to have a field day on the inside. And last time Inner Western, Bankstown played each other. Dompkins had a pretty strong double-double. I think that was a game where she had like 20 and 20. Just a casual 20 and 20 all thereabouts. I'm really glad that Bankstown being their first time in NBA One East, that they've turned up with a pretty decent team.
00:40:54
Speaker
Yeah, I can't see them making a run to make the top eight, to be honest. Yeah, if Moro is there for all those games against lower teams, they can take all five and at least maybe get into a, they could get into a three, there could be a three-way tie at 11 and 11 between Canberra, Maitland and Bankstown.
00:41:15
Speaker
I don't know that they can pick off all Brubodonga, Comets, or Newcastle, which are their other three remaining games. If Morrow's there, I can see them getting to 11 and 11, but I'm not sure they'd have the split. And if she's out, then I just feel they'll drop one. They're definitely on the outside looking in, just as well. They still only have six wins. I mean, they have games in hand on Canberra, or a game in hand on Canberra.
00:41:44
Speaker
but I'd rather have the win in my pocket than a game in hand. And that rounds out the
Top Eight Predictions and Outcomes
00:41:51
Speaker
top 10 as it stands after round 12. So given everything that we've said, Lockie, who are you predicting to make the top eight by the end of the regular season? Well, the top six teams lock them in. They'll all make it. I can't see them
00:42:12
Speaker
falling out. I'm going to go Albury-Wodonga, utilize those additional players that they've picked up and grab a 12th win. I've already said the Canberra will lose to Albury, which means I'm then for them to make finals, I'm banking on them losing to Norse, Manly or Sutherland, or Maitland losing to Central Coast Illawarra or Penrith.
00:42:37
Speaker
Yeah, that's really tight. That's really, really tight. I think you're right. It might even be Maitland just on the strength of what they've already got. What's the split? What's the split? So head to head, Canberra have the head to head over Maitland.
00:42:54
Speaker
Yes, they do too. Yes, because they played each other quite early in the season. They did. But then I've got to figure out will Canberra beat North, Manly or Sutherland? I really think Canberra can test Sutherland. Depth of bench as well though. Sutherland might have an edge because I mean now that you know Emily Garland had a great start to the season, but now that Nicholson's back, she's been moved to the bench.
00:43:19
Speaker
which is not so good for Emily Garland in terms of court time, but good for the team overall. When it comes to the crunch, you've got a strong bench. Yeah. It's really going to come between Maitland and Canberra, isn't it? Because I think you're right. I think Aubrey are going to make a really strong kind of campaign into finals and cement a spot in top eight. So I think it would depend whether Maitland or Canberra fall out. I'm going to go the big call and say Canberra knock off one of those top three teams and get the split over Maitland and make eight spot.
00:43:48
Speaker
Ooh, good call. Okay, so either Sutherland, of those top teams, I think Canberra could knock off Sutherland. It's in Canberra as well. It's in Canberra as well, so that's going to help. They will really test manly though. And Maitland, see, I wonder if Central Coast can get the win against Maitland. Yeah, I was also thinking that Central Coast, yeah, Maitland
00:44:13
Speaker
Yeah. Can one of them get the win? That will be a game that they drop. Yeah, that could happen as well. And then it would just be Canberra, May, getting to 11 and 11 and Maitland 10 and 12. Gosh, that's so tight. But just around- And if they all do finish 11 and 11 and Bankstown win all five of their games against the bottom five, then they're in there tight as well. It is really too tight.
00:44:38
Speaker
It's really tight. We could see ourselves very well in a situation where we have three teams tied at 11 and 11 by the end of the season. And it will just go on percentages. If that's the case, if anyone from those teams actually listened to the podcast, I highly recommend you lock down on D and make as many layups as possible because it's going to come down to percentages.
00:45:01
Speaker
It very well could, and it might not just come down to percentages for who makes finals, but what position teams get in the finals. Yes, of course. That's the thing. I think especially for the teams that are pretty much guaranteed a spot in the top eight, you would still want to go in with the mindset of thinking about the percentages purely for positions. Yeah, 100%. You never know when you could end up in a three-way tie or just a percentage list, whatever tiebreaker you might fall into.
00:45:31
Speaker
Because if you look at Norse and comets there, you know, Norse third, comets fourth, but they're both on 11 and two, Norse have got the edge because of the percentage. But you don't want to be Norse and happen to slip into fourth and then play manly the one team that you've lost to twice in the season. A hundred percent.
00:45:49
Speaker
So just to confirm, when Lockie said before, the top six are probably a Lock. That was Manly, Newcastle, North, Sydney Comet, Centre of Excellence and Sutherland Sharks. And then predicting that Aubrey is going to come good and take that seventh spot and a possible three-way tie for the eighth spot between Maitland, Canberra and Bankstown. But if I had to pick a team, I'm going to go Canberra.
00:46:18
Speaker
correct. My goodness, it is tight. It is so tight. And I'm just looking, it's it's going to stay tight, I think, because I don't think this week in terms of that, like, spot for through seventh to 10th fighting for the last two spots, there's not a lot of games, at least this weekend, but they don't play each other.
00:46:38
Speaker
you know, anytime soon. So in the next couple of weeks. So Aubrey, so Aubrey Woodonga played Bankstown on Saturday, June 24th. So I guess that'll be the first game that'll really, really be big unless there's a mammoth upset this coming weekend.
00:46:54
Speaker
And I think some games to keep your eyes on as well in terms of, you know, we know we can probably guarantee the top six are probably a lock. But in round 13, Sutherland play North and North play COE. So they're going to be two important games in terms of placement and percentages as well. Certainly, yes. Whilst I said the top six are probably a lock, their positions definitely are not.
00:47:19
Speaker
No, no. So we could, we know they'll be in the top six, but where they'll land the top six is going to be really tricky. Yes. Oh my gosh. We got through it, Locky. Gosh, it's going to be a very exciting season and race to the final, but yes.
00:47:35
Speaker
Yeah, I mean we've got five rounds to go, plenty of games to play, potentially not a lot of rest for the top teams between now and if they make NBL One Nationals. But that's pretty much our future, our finals forecast for the women's competition in NBL One Else 2023. It's going to be exciting.
00:47:58
Speaker
It is going to be outrageous. But all eyes on the ladder as, yeah, as we wrap up this episode. So thanks again for joining me, Locky, and for all of your hard work. Oh, I got you.