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The Next Four: The immediate takeaways, the long-term vision, and the hard choices ahead | SA Election Special 2026
2 Plays7 minutes ago
In this 2026 SA Election Special, Rhys Jarrett and David Fox (Bendigo Trades Hall) break down the shock results of the 2026 South Australian Election. Beyond the Labor landslide, they explore why One Nation has overtaken the Liberals and what the future holds for AUKUS, technical education, and the struggling Whyalla Steelworks. A deep dive into prosperity, manufacturing, and the hard choices facing the "crossroads state."
The Next Four provides a rare, deep-dive analysis into the intersection of trade unionism, state politics, and global economics. Whether you are interested in the rise of minor parties or the practicalities of how we build a prosperous state, this episode is essential listening.
Topic Chapters and Timestamps
- 00:00 – The Inevitable Election: Introduction and Labor’s Landslide.
- 00:55 – The Numbers: Breaking down the 33-seat Supermajority.
- 01:52 – The One Nation Surge: How the Liberals lost their spot as the primary opposition.
- 04:27 – Why Labor Won: AUKUS, Energy, and Global Strategy.
- 07:34 – The Malinauskas Image: Aesthetics and Governance.
- 08:09 – The "Liberal Wing": Neoliberalism and the Labor Party tradition.
- 11:06 – Manufacturing Legacy: Looking back at Elizabeth and the post-war boom.
- 15:32 – The AUKUS Gamble: Defence vs. Peacetime Manufacturing.
- 18:43 – Vocational Future: The role of new Technical Colleges.
- 21:56 – The Whyalla Crisis: The case for Nationalisation and Sovereignty.
- 24:27 – Conclusion and how to join the Great Southern Discussion Club.
The Great Southern Discussion Club fosters open, inclusive dialogue on issues facing Australia, Pacific Island nations, Timor-Leste, and Indonesia, promoting collaboration and shared growth. Find out more at https://gsdc.znn.au/.
RawCut is a unique collaborative media project by people passionate about telling fascinating stories about ideas, people, public policy, and culture. Find out more at https://www.rawcut.au/
Transcript
Labor Party's Landslide Victory in South Australia
00:00:00
Speaker
You could reasonably call it the inevitable election. The South Australian state election for 2026 with a landslide towards Labor. Tonight I'm overwhelmed with a sense of gratitude.
00:00:12
Speaker
um A gratitude to to so many people who have provided this government the opportunity to be able to continue to serve. to be able to continue our work of making sure that the momentum in South Australia delivers for the people who deserves it most. And those are the people of South Australia.
00:00:33
Speaker
But what happens next? From the Great Southern Discussion Club and Raw Cut, this is The Next Four. The immediate election takeaways, the long-term vision and the hard choices ahead.
00:00:47
Speaker
Welcome friends, my name's Rhys Jarrett and this is a Great Southern Discussion Club special reviewing the South Australian election for 2026.
00:00:55
Speaker
The results of the election meant that the Labor Party in the Assembly has a supermajority of 33 seats, with other parties making up the remainder. On the first preference vote side of things, the Labor Party got 37.5% of all first preference votes, followed by Pauline Hanson's One Nation with 22.9%, then the Liberal Party with 18.9% and the Greens with 10.4%, with minor parties following.
00:01:21
Speaker
and the greens with ten pointf four percent with minor parties following Joining me today is the President of Bendigo Trades Hall in Victoria. And we're going to have a little bit of a discussion about the results of the South Australian election and what can come next over the next four years, particularly in the view of prosperity for South
Unexpected Rise of One Nation
00:01:40
Speaker
Australians. So, David, welcome.
00:01:42
Speaker
Good evening. Now, just based off of the basic results from the election, what is your immediate take? Well, first of all, my immediate take, the results was not surprising for me.
00:01:58
Speaker
ah Labor was expected to win and the results with One Nation wasn't surprising either. So in some aspects, this was already on the cards of the way it was presented.
00:02:11
Speaker
the way it was going to end. What surprised me, though, it was actually the high percentage of the One Nation vote compared to in previous years. And i think for them, it's been a it's been a major boon for them to toir for further elections elections in the future. It is a very big shot in the arm for them.
00:02:34
Speaker
I think think but when I was looking at the Labor win itself, I mean, obviously they've got absolute majority now. and They've written the mandate, they'll go ahead, do what what policies they will implement. But at the same time, I think with One Nation,
00:02:50
Speaker
they've now they've been They've been given a boost. And I think now I think we're looking at other states and we'll talk about Victoria in a little while. They are looking at other places to obviously expand and grow their influence.
00:03:04
Speaker
Well, I think for the Liberals, think there's a big loss for them. i think now them as being as a reputable opposition at least, has been diminished even further now with the very few seats they did win. i think One Nation is now starting to overtake them.
00:03:22
Speaker
Yeah, so we had the 2018 election from memory, which is the election where S.A. Best, the party that was led by Nick Xenophon, he was trying to get into state politics, that was the last time that we saw a real ah swift kind of attack towards getting a a new party with a large majority of people involved over all of the seats. So all in every seat from memory, every ah seat had a candidate from SA Best. And
00:03:57
Speaker
This time we're seeing Pauline Hanson's One Nation, not a particularly new party when it comes to Australian politics in general, but ah new to South Australian politics, at least in this iteration.
Labor's Strategic Interests in Global Supply Chains
00:04:10
Speaker
um So it's interesting to me that I think we need to just rewind it a little bit and think, how can we how how did the Labor Party actually win this election?
00:04:22
Speaker
What really was the driving force behind that? Do we have any ideas there? Oh, look, there's quite a few. And I think the Labor Party as well has been very big interest, vested interest in the defence industries in South Australia, especially with the onset of AUKUS. They've been a playing a very, both federally and on state level, been a significant player there, but also but many others in the energy sector as well. They're looking to expand the renewable sector even further. And obviously other minerals, rare earths, that which now on a worldwide scale has put South Australia on that strategic era of being a world supplier of the critical minerals and rare earths component to all of the modern technology we have today. For example, electric cars, microchips,
00:05:18
Speaker
Just a one or two two examples, but many others. So South Australia is in that strategic spot and though on a world economic war level, not just even on a national level. It's a hard country.
00:05:32
Speaker
Very much. Your rival state in that sense would be actually Western Australia in the energy sector and rare earths and minerals as well. The active states um have all those natural resources. Now, I think the plan for South Australia is how they're going to be in a to take advantage of the strategic position they do her old in the world economy.
00:05:56
Speaker
And I think, well, the Labor Party there was meant to say with them, they but they have been behind the scenes, a lot of working. We've obviously seen the trade deals, seen all the overseas trips and and according of overseas functions and big businesses as well. So there's a lot more to it. So so've obviously they've all given me all the powers that they've given the Labor Party the tick, approval. They need to have a good stable government there in South Australia and policies implemented in place so it can allow them to then take advantage of where South Australia lies with its natural resources.
00:06:36
Speaker
I suppose that's the interesting dynamic there. Obviously, there's the energy sector side of things, but on the political side of things, you have the Labor Party being seen by a lot of different parts of this country, a lot of different sectors in society yeah as being a party of government.
00:06:53
Speaker
a party that is capable of practically governing. We saw during the COVID-19 period, the Stephen Marshall government, there was a certain kind of clownish kind of nature to it all.
00:07:04
Speaker
Not to say that Stephen Marshall wasn't trying to take it seriously, but it just had that kind of vibe to it. And we see we with the Malinowskis government, ever since that election win in, I think it was 2022, he...
00:07:20
Speaker
he has tried to kind of ah promote this kind of, i suppose, on a kind of an aesthetics level, a kind of almost Justin Trudeau kind of image.
00:07:33
Speaker
And i think that's a very good comparison because you could say he's very similar to Justin Trudeau in those early years when he was popular. but He also has expressed some of those weaknesses that Justin Trudeau has had in his later years before he got really unpopular.
00:07:49
Speaker
But Malinowski overall is generally seen as a pretty popular leader of the Labor government. So is that really the the dynamic going on here, that they're just simply...
00:08:03
Speaker
The government, the the party that is seen to be capable of governing. Well, I think we look at the context of the Labor Party then and besides its trade union base, the Labor Party is very much the liberal wing of the system we live under. And i don't i mean the term of liberal national a party, I mean, of a Liberal wing, more so in the American a sense, where you just mentioned even with the Canadians, with the Democratic Party there, they're more in line with that side of politics and that side of business as well, and where you're looking at the Liberal and um in the Nationals, he traditionally always part of that conservative side of the politics.
00:08:48
Speaker
The Liberal wing, obviously, At some time, I know like in America, for example, the Democrats are were in crisis for many years. There was a lot of rejection through that with, you know, and obviously voting Trump. um In Canada, it's little bit different scene there as well. But that's what the Labor Party in that context, I think it was what was interesting, you know,
00:09:13
Speaker
Because what the Labor has been stand been for for the last 40 years, but you know, free market ideology, you know, let the market determines. It's surprisingly how often they are voted in. You'd think, you know, for even it was actually Labor on a federal scale on a federal level, they kicked it all off in the first place under Bob Hawke and Paul Keating. And obviously... You're talking about the neoliberalisation of Australia. now Yeah. So they they've been right at the forefront of that for a long time.
00:09:47
Speaker
Obviously, they've been carrying out having concessions out of that to try and make population benefit. And... That's what they've sort of represented, where the Liberal Party itself i am predominantly have always represented a very ultra-conservative side of things, but real major cutbacks, everyone's pretty much on their own two feet, you know, and they wanted to play the small government in that sense, where the Labor Party wanted still play a role in the whole...
00:10:19
Speaker
much bigger role in the whole neoliberal scheme. So i bet they' they're the main two contrasts there as well. But I think um think that that's what what what made Labor... I think it's pretty much unique for South Australia. I think there's a state with the most Labor governments or longer-serving Labor governments compared to other states throughout Australia. And...
00:10:41
Speaker
I think it's, a you know, so in some aspect, you could say it's a historical tradition. There's a traditional dynamic of there being ah multiple labour terms of government, followed by maybe a liberal term of government, then directly followed by multiple labour terms of government. That's the cycle that goes on and on again. so that...
00:11:02
Speaker
It's interesting that that is always the dynamic, particularly for South Australia, is the the main reason for that, the the manufacturing dynamic. And I know this interests you as the manufacturing dynamic because yeah you are by trade a boilermaker and in South Australia there is a legacy, particularly in the post-war period, of manufacturing in the state, particularly with the establishment of suburbs like Elizabeth where we had this the adjacent Holden manufacturing plant. and ah in amongst a number of other plants, like a Westinghouse, which is now Electrolux, and they still even exist down there. But it is a traditional manufacturing hub for the country in some respects, as was Melbourne in many respects as well. um
00:11:46
Speaker
So did that reflect in the vote? Did the did the Labor Party actually reflect the interests of Labor in that post-war period?
00:11:58
Speaker
I think for this state election, to a degree, there is still some of that to a degree. I think like Labor, out of, say, the two we'll just use the two major parties, had the better position for manufacturing. And and I know there there's been a lot of hard work, even on behalf my own union, to bring back manufacturing. as I think, as as I was mentioned before, South Australia is in a very good strategic spot on a worldwide economy. And why can't we manufacture all the means to...
00:12:28
Speaker
for For the rare earths and um and minerals and and various other stuff, I mean, defence has always been one of the big things, but there's ah many others as well where we we can be were manufacturing can be a major support service there, an industry for South Australia. It would be a major i just shot in the arm for that.
00:12:49
Speaker
And i we can we can even know where there's strategic cities where where a lot of that can happen. You know, we've still got Port Augusta, Wyala, down through itsru to Adelaide. and it's all And it's all connected up by interstate rail. And it's...
00:13:05
Speaker
Perfect position to do so. It's like it's basically out of rail crossroads and you can move stuff everywhere. Indeed, because all of the railway major railway corridors, the the rail corridor going from east to west in Australia, as well as the other corridors east-west corridor, at least for for part of it, is the corridor between particularly Melbourne and Adelaide, which in times of problems particularly around the Broken Hill area, the Australian Rail and Track Corporation tends to reroute traffic along that southern route, which...
00:13:44
Speaker
is more or less there for the servicing of things like Geelong Port as well because the the route actually takes an interesting
AUKUS Pact and Technical Skills Development
00:13:52
Speaker
diversion through Geelong instead of taking a direct route to Melbourne. Coming up... And now we're going into a new Malinowskis government.
00:13:59
Speaker
What should they be doing? Should they be nationalising it? Yes, I think that its it shouldn't be a dirty word, a nationalisation. Everyone's going, what does that mean? I think it should come under a public ownership. All that and more on the next four...
00:14:14
Speaker
It's unexpected. i felt like i was a drunken sailor walking down Umney Road. It's authentic. And I always found it strange that I only had two brothers, whereas my sister had three brothers. It's a little dangerous. And we had experimental kerosene heater, but every now and then it would explode.
00:14:34
Speaker
It's Life Bursts with Matt and Sarah. All episodes available at rawcutton.au.
00:14:45
Speaker
The Next Four now continues. South Australia is the only mainland state that touches every other mainland state geographically as well as the Northern Territory.
00:14:56
Speaker
And for that reason, that's why we say it's a crossroads state. So... there is a significant heartland element there and then there's also significant dynamic there for ah precious minerals, for natural resources, for energy resources. And so that has had a heritage in building that manufacturing capacity in Australia, but also South Australia specifically. So,
00:15:21
Speaker
What's the future of manufacturing South Australia? We know that the state government has its eyes set on something following the AUKUS pact and manufacturing around that. Is that the future of heavy manufacturing in Australia?
00:15:37
Speaker
Well, for a start, is defence spending is a natural occurrence by all governments, mainly federal, not state, but usually federal, and to try and reboott reboot the economy.
00:15:51
Speaker
And that's been a case since prior to World War II, but ah obviously more of a case now, especially in the in these days. the I think for the future of manufacturing based around AUKUS, all that type, of there's ah there's a few things.
00:16:10
Speaker
I mean, it basically... prior During World War II and after, most defence manufacturing was also catered to manufacture for peacetime purposes as well. This is the key for it. Because I think one of the questions you would have for AUKUS, what about for peacetime purposes? Well, the new naval shipyards, that is or is it just going to be straight for submarines, that alone?
00:16:33
Speaker
Wow. I think that those important questions ensure employs some people. um I'll take that back. It's more than just some people. It does a lot of people. But in the whole scheme of things in manufacturing, it's actually only a smaller component.
00:16:48
Speaker
Really, yeah we will do we just mentioned about the four of what South Australia once had, like General Motors, Holden, also Victor Lawmoles, Hills Hoist, many of the ah many the common brands that were ah we we still know about, but no longer have been made, but they were just my main two. And they employed far more people in this time, and they generated more more gross domestic product and a stronger economy than stays are strictly defence. Now,
00:17:15
Speaker
For defence also, I'll just start to keep this in mind, it it also too, we we've had no nuclear, well, but i won't say no, we we do have a nuclear facility in Sydney when it's called Lucas Heights.
00:17:29
Speaker
ah But and actually for working on nuclear reactors and that, well, there's been very, less of that experience now that was also i think part part of it and both political persuasions both parties have come up with the wall we basically we can get people trained up in that because i'll obviously in the future i know the liberal party among us they want to go down the nuclear power act so they've got the skills and the basis to to to go that path and because the problem is with uh the liberal party when they say oh we want to have nuclear generation well we actually don't have the vital skills in that and in that era. I think they're dreaming a little bit without actually taking some serious consideration and how they would go about that. But that's part of that whole AUKUS plan. So it's not just strict having um these big submarines, um nuclear power, but it also allows to build up the skills base to have that option open.
00:18:27
Speaker
to if we if Australia ever decided to adopt nuclear energy. Now, look, I think the argument tonight, we won't get into the pros and cons of it or if we are going to go that way, but that's obviously has left Australia with a door opening to Yeah, it's a very interesting dynamic. And I remember when ah the...
00:18:46
Speaker
kind of bringing in of all of these various policies relating to AUKUS, I think the most beneficial one at the moment, from my perspective at least, has been the establishment of these technical colleges, which is a colon which is us a after a secondary school ah education system that is on the sort of...
00:19:11
Speaker
sort of the the vocational level of of education where you're trying to teach students people who are graduating from high school um new skills to be able to enter those emerging industries and specifically those emerging industries. Historically, this this kind of role has been for TAFEs in Australia, but they're creating this entirely new technical colleges ah entity to be able to do that now and they've got um a number of different campuses in the works and some are operational already.
00:19:46
Speaker
So for me personally, if those existed 10 years ago when I was leaving high school, more than 10 years ago when I was leaving high school, that would have been a very significant option for me to consider in terms of my future and how I could facilitate a greater prosperity for myself along with everyone else who lives around me.
00:20:07
Speaker
But...
Revitalizing the Industrial Base
00:20:10
Speaker
What other options is there for South Australia to actually facilitate practical prosperity? Because you're talking about civilian manufacturing in your answer.
00:20:21
Speaker
Do we actually see any... genuine growth in that civilian manufacturing capacity based off of the developments we're seeing in the defence industry? well google That's a good question because over the many years there's been a very big decline of manufacturing in that sense. so We've still got some manufacturing but very...
00:20:41
Speaker
it's not It's very small compared to what it was those many years ago is when when we did have a very big industrial capacity. The thing is, up ah personally, I think ah ah this is where governments need to focus on rebuilding that industrial base again, that manufacturing base of everything, because we seem to still be importing a lot. I think what's going on at the moment on the world scale, what's happening Middle East and that, it's put again, put the question in, Well, why aren't we have our own industrial base to supply ourselves even further? And manufacturing, it's not just, you know, a heavy engineering. you We're looking at all sorts of making cars. We're looking at food production is a major one for us, stuff for the medical facility. And and health health and medical is the biggest growing area at the moment, has been for some years. So you'd be thinking, well, we'd have a manufacturing base to supply all that from medicines right through to
00:21:40
Speaker
general stuff for hospitals, a whole lot instead of having to wait for bringing something out on a plane or a ship over here. But, yeah, we we we should be looking at everything. i mean, I know there is around the country there's been considered effort now.
00:21:56
Speaker
But there is an option here, and that is you have the YLA Steelworks. The wireless still works there. That was sent into forced administration by, in the previous term of government, the Malinowskis government.
00:22:10
Speaker
ah And now we're going into a new Malinowskis government. What should they be doing? Should they be nationalising it? Yes. i Look, I think that it's it shouldn't be a dirty word, a nationalisation. Everyone's going, well, what does that mean? I think it should come under public ownership.
00:22:26
Speaker
Yeah. And to guarantee it, it's backed up by a financial guarantee to keep those steelworks going, but also and a major upgrade, modernising it as well. That's what has to happen. And, you know, bringing in new methods of steelmaking. mean, Wales is in that strategic spot. It's all it's got its own port.
00:22:46
Speaker
Again, it's connected to the National Rail Network. um It's got iron ore around it. and Why would you want to see a place like that closed down? be In its day, and I'll just tell you my history met there. YL used to have its own shipyard there as well. EHP used to build their own ore carriers.
00:23:04
Speaker
and steel carriers and the remnants of it you can still see to this day. that that's ah But i thought that should be a major heart heartbeat for South Australia to have those steelworks. And it's part of also a question of sovereignty. We need to have our own industries for our own national sovereignty. Steel making is one of them.
00:23:24
Speaker
along with, you know we could talk about oil and gas as well and energy sector, but but steel manufacturing is one of them. We couldn't be able to have to rely on imports from overseas. The only time we should import steel for there's a shortage of steel here if we can't keep up to capacity. But really, right rights we can be quite dependent on our own steelmaking if we had some foresight and planning and proper steelmaking here. So, Wyalo is a vital asset.
00:23:51
Speaker
for the state of South Australia. And I think to have that closed down altogether, it'll be not just devastating for a while, but the whole state and and national economy as well will be devastating for the state and and the national economy because where are we going to get our steel from?
00:24:08
Speaker
Yeah, indeed. And I think we can all agree that in this immediate term, I think... there's two things that need to be shored up is that steel manufacturing capacity as well, but most importantly, the energy capacity because we're in a tight spot at the moment.
00:24:25
Speaker
Well, I suppose that is all the time that we have for for this conversation. Now, this is a conversation brought to you in part by the Great Southern Discussion Club. You can find the Great Southern Discussion Club at gsdc.com. gsdc.znn.au. That's gsdc.znn.au. And there you can find a number of articles, including articles from myself and David, as well as a number of other participants in the Great Southern Discussion Club. And you can be a participant too. We are not a closed book society. We ensure that everybody has the capacity to be able to participate in Great Southern Discussion Club. My name's Rhys Jarrett.
00:25:04
Speaker
Thank you for watching. This was a Raw Cat production for the Great Southern Discussion Club.