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Nos Audietis: This might be the Timbers’ MLS Cup
152 Plays29 days ago
Longtime friend of the show and Timbers expert Chris Rifer joins us to help preview Saturday’s Cascadia Cup clash. It’s been an up and down season for the Timbers, who are likely looking at this game as something like their MLS Cup.
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Transcript
Introduction and Sponsorship
00:00:02
Speaker
This episode of Nos Arietes is sponsored by Fullpool Wines, a Seattle-based wine retailer and proud sponsor of Nos Arietes since 2011. Fullpool was founded in 2009, is based in Seattle, and is owned and operated by longtime Sounders supporters. They offer the best boutique wines of the world to members of their mailing list, with special focus on their home, Pacific Northwest.
Meet Will Bruin: Sounders Legend
00:00:25
Speaker
Hi, I'm Will Bruin, and I was just recognized as a Seattle Sounders legend. Now I get to do voice reads for the sounder at heart podcast network.
00:00:40
Speaker
about seven dominatmin it
00:01:18
Speaker
This is a tiny f***ing dog. Ever since Southern, I've got a commentary that we didn't take local seriously.
00:01:41
Speaker
Welcome back to another episode of NOS Adietta, sponsored by Full
Cascadia Cup Preview with Jeremiah and Chris
00:01:45
Speaker
Pool Wines. I am Jeremiah O'Shan, joining me today to help preview the Cascadia Cup match coming up on Saturday, which is tomorrow for us. I don't know when this is again, actually, but this is Chris Rifer, friend of the show, currently unattached as far as outlets go, but still one of the great minds of Timber's coverage out there. I don't know about like great minds, but definitely still fairly obsessed.
00:02:11
Speaker
Yeah, exactly. I guess that's really what I meant. he's still If you follow him on Twitter, you'll see that he still talks about the timbers as much as anybody. So that it qualifies. And we love having Chris on. and ah So thanks for doing this, Chris. Of course, I'm happy to be here. Happy to be back.
00:02:26
Speaker
Yeah. ah So, Chris, we have a rather big match, although the stakes... Go ahead. They're weirdly... like like the the The stakes are kind of weird. and I know. that's what seems shifting Which I think we actually
Whitecaps' Playoff Dilemma
00:02:40
Speaker
should. like We would be remiss and and if we sort of let a moment of unity go by to all sort of collectively turn our gaze northward and point and laugh at the Vancouver White Caps right now.
00:02:52
Speaker
Yeah, so almost breaking new practically breaking news ah Which was a great platform for breaking news. Yeah, exactly when this comes out in 12 hours or whatever But ah yeah the white cat we just found out like an hour ago that the white caps cannot host if they if they end up in the 8 9 game they cannot host because their field is being used by Supercross, which I realized as a Sounders fan is very, uh, it's, it's a little glass housey for me to, to laugh at, but this is worse than the car show. This is way worse than the car show. they They can't, they can't play their game. They need to have nowhere to play. So for the first time, I believe at
00:03:32
Speaker
um Maybe not the first time in MLS history, but certainly the first time since I've been paying attention, a playoff game may be played at the lower seed, which in this case would be Portland. If if the Whitecaps are in this game, that is wild.
00:03:45
Speaker
Yeah, it's, it's crazy. I'm sure there's somebody who, you know, like Matt Doyle or something would be like in 1999, the Miami fusion, you know, there was something like that. I'm sure in MLS history where, uh, I mean, look, ah anything that happens embarrassing almost always is precedented in MLS. Uh, because there's just been kind of that arc and, and there, there were some periods, uh, that, that were, uh, a little wild in the league, but yeah, I mean, yeah it's, it's really,
Timbers' Playoff Strategy and Reflection
00:04:10
Speaker
really bad. It's.
00:04:11
Speaker
very lucky for the timbers. I mean, the timbers are likely, uh, just sort of playing the odds of, of, of road games and the like likely to be the nine seed. Uh, they, uh, in that case, they would have been going on the road where they've been to that last point abysmal, uh, over the course of the year. And, and you know, that would have been bad news in the play, uh, uh, the playing game, uh, to go on the road. Now they will be seemingly very likely at home, regardless of, of win or loss, uh, this weekend. So. a little bit weird that changes the dynamics of the game a little bit. Maybe I don't know. I kind of think the timbers were always going to go for it in Seattle because of the Cascadia Cup implications because it's Seattle and because frankly, whether you're eighth or ninth in the playoffs,
00:04:56
Speaker
the outcome is still very likely the same that you are the veritable lion at the gladiator show, which is to say your day only ends one way and that's not well. right um So, you know, I i i don't think it'll it'll change the game that much, but it it does give us an opportunity to point and laugh at the whitecaps.
00:05:15
Speaker
Right, yeah, yeah, yeah i it was funny because I started off this week thinking like, wow, I don't remember that when the stakes have been quite so high for a ah ah cat a Cascadia Cup between the Sounders and Timbers. And sometimes you get wrapped up in that. And then I had to look back and was like, oh yeah, it was just 2021 where the Sounders were playing the season finale at Vancouver. And if they won that game, they would have won the number one seed in the Western Conference.
00:05:43
Speaker
they only needed a tie to to win the Cascadia Cup, which they got. But they they got a tie, and they didn't they ended up with the second seed. And anyway, and we've had season finales between the the Timbers and Whitecaps before. So I suppose if you really like check yourself a little bit, the the the the stakes are not outrageously
Whitecaps' Playoff Challenges
00:06:02
Speaker
high. The Sounders can move up to third. but And I guess the the white cap or the the Timbers can move up to eight, which maybe would be fitting. But just for the sake of this,
00:06:13
Speaker
The Whitecaps are pretty close to stuck in eighth. Or I shouldn't say that. They they can't get much higher. they can't get The chances of them getting higher than eighth would require them winning on the road at ah RSL and then also a loss by Minnesota. Minnesota to St. Louis. Minnesota's playing at home. St. Louis is eliminated. It's one of those things where it's like, yes, if two unlikely results go their way, they could theoretically move up to seventh. Right.
00:06:41
Speaker
But the odds of two unlikely results going their way are not great. That is the concept of unlikeliness. Unlikely good, I suppose, if I want to speak English. Right. So really, the stakes for the timbers in terms of playoff seating are not very high. They're most likely going to end up hosting the play-in game regardless. But the Cascadia Cup is on the line, and more than that, a regional pride is on the line.
00:07:09
Speaker
though timbers have this unbelievable unbeaten streak at lumen field right now 10 games in the regular season it's been since they uh since they last lost at lumen field may 27th 2017 do you remember where you were on may 27th 2017 were you no i have no idea there's a good chance i was at lumen field right there's a very good chance i was at lumen field but yeah i i mean it has been that long which is uh which is truly extraordinary uh and and i I mean, something like this, I don't have much of an explanation.
Timbers' Tactical Evolution
00:07:42
Speaker
Uh, no, I don't think j server is as teams if I were to try to get one, I mean, that basically spans the summer race era and they were very good at sort of getting the, we need a one-off game here kind of thing.
00:07:56
Speaker
Uh, they were, they were always fairly conservative tactically, but that's a pretty good approach. If you're sort of like, we need to win this one game, which is why you see teams like that do well in single elimination tournaments, uh, like the MLS playoffs periodically are. Uh, and so, you know, I, I think if you want to try to find some rationale for this probably inexplicable, uh, streak, maybe that would be it. Uh, and then you might make the argument that that rationale no longer applies because that is very much not this year's timbers team.
00:08:25
Speaker
ah so you know But I think for the most part, you have to layer in just a a very, very ah thick layer of flukiness to that streak. Yeah. i The thing that jumped out at me is that you know you can if you were an alien visiting from another world and you said, oh, this is a strange phenomenon, my understanding is that home teams tend to be a lot better. And you you could look at the numbers and they would tell a very ah story that defies logic. The sounders average better than two points per game at home when they're not playing the timbers. The timbers average less than one point per game when they're playing someone other than the sounders on the road. And yet here we are. and And it's not even like the timbers have the sounders number in this sort of unbelievable way. The sounders are six, five, and one at Providence park during the same stretch. The timbers have lost a number of times down here in Portland.
00:09:15
Speaker
Right. Yeah. It's it's a very so it's it just really does defy any sort of real logic. And yet here we are 10 games into this. I suppose you could even tease it out a little bit more. There there was an open cup game that the Timbers won in Tacoma and then there was this playoff game which always makes it kind of a complicated thing that I just stopped referring to the open. I just started saying regular season games.
Timbers' Offensive Struggles
00:09:38
Speaker
But yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The Sounders did technically win a ah home game against the Timbers during that time. But of course it was the the shootout win by the timbers so it didn't feel like a win for the Sounders so we don't appear victory if there ever was one exactly but i coming into this game the timbers were you know they were rolling ah they beat the Sounders
00:10:01
Speaker
Then they had a little bit of a hiccup, but then they beat the Galaxy 4-2 and it looked like they might actually make a surge up the the table. They had this high flying offense and and it seemed to be sort of like all clicking into place, not in such a similar fashion than the Sounders where they both sort of turned their seasons around around mid-season.
00:10:21
Speaker
and things seem to be going really good for the timbers. What's happened over the last four games where they've gone, win they they've gone, oh they've only lost once, but they don't have any wins in their last four. how would What's been going on there?
00:10:34
Speaker
You know, i I think teams in general, like the timbers that ah that attack very well but don't defend well are susceptible to these kinds of runs ah because they're always one little bit of a cold stretch away from a string of bad results, right? Defense kind of plays every week, right? And and ah and if you have a clear defensive structure, if if ah if you're a team that sort of keeps things more simpler in the attack but but certainly keeps it clean at at the back more, I think, like ah like the Sounders do,
00:11:03
Speaker
I think you're a little bit less susceptible to these kinds of blackouts and and look I mean the timbers having watched the last few weeks I don't think it's that they've been terrible. I think, you know, they had the, the, if you, if you, you know, sit back with your glass of Brandy, you say they had the better of the play in the last couple of games. Like that, even Kayla Porter would have been all over that. Oh yeah. That they dominated the last two two games and, and you know, there that would have been not irrational thoughts. Yeah. be honest with you yeah ah But you know, I mean, that, that wouldn't have been irrational. I mean, you watch the games and and yeah, I think they probably did have the better of the play overall in those two games, but
00:11:44
Speaker
I mean, they are where they are and they got the results that they, that they got. And, uh, I think they probably had some hot streaks, uh, in the, in the attack over the course of the, over the course of the year that they rode. Certainly that game, uh, against the, the galaxy, they were on one. They also went to RSL and put three, uh, in a three, three draw. This team is specialized in multi-goal draws this year. Uh, but, uh, but you know, I mean, they've, they've certainly had some periods in which they've been filling it up.
00:12:11
Speaker
But when when you're kind of like relying on that hot hand, when it goes away, you know the emperor ends up having no clothes. And I think that's where they've been over the course of the last few weeks in in really untimely fashion.
Coaching Critiques: Phil Neville's Impact
00:12:22
Speaker
But I will say, you know i mean there's going to be a lot of temptation to look at the last few weeks weeks and say, well, this is why you know we weren't higher and in the in the table at the end of the year.
00:12:32
Speaker
Once again, and this has been the same story over the course of the last three years, ah the original Sin was back in the spring ah when they got off to yet another very, very, very slow start, as they seem to every year. They started to dig themselves out of it in the summer, but you just leave yourself no margin for error. So even if you do have a couple of games where it just doesn't quite come together in the attack, that ends up being fatal instead of being something that that that is a blip. And so I think that's been the story ah for the last couple of games, I think,
00:13:00
Speaker
If you're looking at the Timbers from the last two games and saying, well, you know, the, the attack isn't potent anymore. You're playing with fire because this is a team that did score 64, whatever goals, uh, in the 31 games that preceded that, uh, that's really impressive. Uh, this is a team that can score goals. Uh, and so, you know, if you're, if you're a Sanders fan looking at the timber saying, well, I wasn't worried about that attack, but not anymore. I think you're probably putting money on, on, you know, an N of two, which is dangerous. Oh.
00:13:27
Speaker
But you also have to look at the timbers defense and say, well, we're opportunities there. So yeah, it wasn't, it wasn't so long ago that they scored seven goals and back to back games against the galaxy and and RSL. yeah This is a very potent offense. I don't think anyone, anyone who allows themselves to forget that is, is, like you said, is, is sort of setting themselves up for, uh, for a a nasty surprise. You know, you had a, uh, a thread on Twitter, which,
00:13:55
Speaker
I, we're still calling it Twitter. I don't know. yeah I've not made, I've not made the move just because I, I feel for a number of reasons, just so dumb when I say on X hosting on X for multiple reasons. so like I'm stuck with Twitter as well.
00:14:10
Speaker
you So but anyway, you you posted an interesting thread that sort of dug into whether or not Phil Neville has done a good job this year. And I think if you had asked me at the beginning of the year, I was I was very skeptical that Phil Neville was going to have success. I did not think he was particularly good at Miami. He's he's never struck me as a particularly, you know, in insight like he he doesn't have ah a real defining element to his game. Like he he grew up as a defender.
00:14:39
Speaker
But his teams have not or he came up as a defender himself, but his teams are not been particularly hard to score against up until now. He was never really seen as this offensive coach either. I i thought it was a curious hire, but.
00:14:55
Speaker
I would say they've actually exceeded what my expectations were, at least far as far as the end of the the beginning of the season goes. But then you look at the players that are having these outstanding seasons, and there' it shouldn't be surprising. Santi Moreno was a very highly regarded player.
00:15:11
Speaker
Evander, obviously, you know he didn't have a great year last year, but he came in on a $10 million dollars transfer. Jonathan Rodriguez had been scoring goals for Club America. Felipe Amorra had had some very outstanding seasons. the offense it I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that the offense is good, but does how much credit does Phil Neville get for that and how much criticism does he deserve for how bad they've been defensively?
00:15:34
Speaker
So I think he has to get some credit for the attack, right? I mean, even if even if the talent is good, if you don't put them in the right places, even if putting them in the right places is fairly commonsensical, ah if you don't do that, you're not going to get the output that they have. and And so I think it's fair that to to say that that he does deserve some credit. And it's not just the fact that he's got four really talented guys. They have built a system ah ah around sort of capitalizing on their talent. They've really pushed their fullbacks into the attack this year, ah especially Juan Mosquera. And that's made them really dangerous. that's sort of let you know You talk about how Jonathan Rodriguez has been a target winger for them. ah That's really let him be that target winger, right? Because he's not responsible all the time ah for creating a ton of width. ah He doesn't have to do those duties and do that dirty work that sometimes wingers do have to do. And he can be that target and really maximize what he does.
00:16:30
Speaker
And so I think you know Neville has done a number of things like that that have put those guys in position to do well and to maximize the considerable talents that they do have. So I think he, he deserves credit for that. And you know, if you want to sort of break his grading down into, uh, into sort of, uh, you know, attack and defense, I think you'd have to give him them a solid B plus a minus in the attack. Um, yes, there's a lot of talent there, but we've seen and MLS teams that have tons of talent, uh, that have not scored tons of goals and they have. And so, uh, I think he gets credit for it and he deserves credit for it.
00:17:04
Speaker
But, and this is what, like, when when I see the commentary in in the article that Charles that charles did um for the for the MLS site, if I remember right, yeah i and and I see the quotes from Neville, it leaves me scratching my head because he sort of copped in that in that article to being like, yeah, we tried to find different ways to play um that that, you know, would ah would have tightened up the the defense and it just didn't quite work. We figured out in this group that we just kind of have to go for it. And I'm just like, like, when I see that, I'm like,
00:17:35
Speaker
that The game model has not been stable. It's not been stable all year. There have been these multi-goal draws and they have dropped points because their game model has been has been really unstable.
00:17:46
Speaker
ah and You're a coach. like that That is your one job, to is to find a game model that not just is the most fun or not just is the most productive in an attacking sense, but gives you the best chance to win.
00:17:59
Speaker
Uh, and I think it is very clear that they haven't found that, uh, that there have been times when they've been really brutalized in transition, where at times they've not been clean in possession, which has opened up opportunities, uh, for opponents to play against the ball. I think back to, uh, to a four four result at home against St. Louis, uh, back up, I would say six weeks or or two months ago, uh, where.
00:18:22
Speaker
I mean, that's that's brutal. That can't happen. and And that is very much a sign ah of of not having things right. And when you're a coach, figuring out that system is is job number one for you. And I think they've not. And so, you know, if I were to grade him overall, even if he gets a B plus or A minus in the attack, if I were to grade him overall,
00:18:44
Speaker
I think it's a C minus or D plus. I think it's pretty inexplicable to have a team that can score 64 goals in MLS and be sitting in ninth place and going into the the final round. Uh, that's, that's not good enough. And, and you know, they should be higher because they have the talent to be, and they've not capitalized on it. Yeah. I think it was you who dug up another stat about how there are only, I think four teams in MLS history who have three 14 goal scorers and all the other teams are basically supporters shield contenders.
00:19:19
Speaker
Yeah. So yeah the set that I dug up, I'm sure, I'm sure that's correct. Somebody else gets credit for it. The one that I dug up is a few weeks ago, they were on pace to score 70 goals. Okay. And every team ah that has scored 70 plus goals in an MLS season has either been first or second in their conference, ah except for one, which was this is an expansion expansioning year Atlanta United, which I think an expansion team, especially that expansion team with Mickey on the road and Joseph Martinez.
00:19:46
Speaker
Like they were exceptional in that way, but they were also still as an expansion team, obviously a little bit flawed. But the timbers have not been sniffing that. They've not been close to that at any point this year. And I think that really sort of highlights how extraordinary, not necessarily in a good sense, ah this timbersive team has been. ah Because everybody else who has had this kind of talent and this kind of success in the attack has been much better than they have been. ah And and you know I think that should lead to a considerable amount of self-reflection for the timbers.
00:20:21
Speaker
And do you get a sense that you know it was interesting the timing of the story coming out, because it it comes and I don't know when the interview was done so maybe the interview was done before some of these results but actually read to me like the interview was probably done during this break. ah But the the timbers do seem to be in this period now where they are sort of trying to sort of clamped down defensively a little bit. They've only given up two goals in the last three games. They've only scored one in those three games, but it it does seem to indicate that to what you're saying that there's not, there doesn't seem to be a coherent plan here. Like, and I also wouldn't say, you know, one of the things that, that Neville said is that, well, we got to press, we got to, you know, we got to really press the act and it's like, well, but that's not really how they defend either. They're not.
00:21:05
Speaker
they're not getting burned in transition because they're, they're just flying around in the offensive. They're trying to win the ball back. They just aren't very good defensively. Like they, yeah they get broken down on set pieces. They get broken down in brutal. Right. So it's, it it's again, it it just seems to suggest that he, he really doesn't have an answer for what's going on to the degree that things have gone wrong. What's going wrong? I mean, he's not obviously a disaster or anything, but Yeah, I mean, I think that's exactly it. They don't have an answer. And I think that's kind of what, what you know, even though that's not directly what he was saying in that interview that he that he did for that article, I think that's kind of the takeaway that I got from his comments, which is they couldn't find an answer to this problem. And it is ultimately a problem that I think, you know, I mean, there is there there is still life in the season, so it's possible that they could turn things around and go on a miraculous run and really make noise in the playoffs. I mean, yeah, I mean, is that possible? Yes, is it likely no?
00:22:01
Speaker
But if that doesn't happen, you're going to look back on this season and say that was ultimately failed. And that was the thing that kept this team from being the team that it probably should have been. Uh, and so, you know, I think that's, that's a pretty damning thing for, for a coach. And, and is that the kind of thing that's going to get him fired after one year? No, absolutely not. He's going to be back for the, with the timbers in 2025.
00:22:24
Speaker
But in this was was kind of the the point of my most recent twitter thread was he should be back but with ah i mean a fairly warm seat. The kind of seat where if they start again and have another really slow start we could be talking in May about whether there's going to be a coaching change. ah Because it's not like he's shown much of anything this year to indicate that he frankly has the aptitude to be a really good MLS coach. I mean, there's not, and it's not like there's anything in his past that's demonstrated, uh, that he's going to be a, that he's a really good MLS coach. And so at some point, I mean, there are just coaches who have frankly gotten a lot fewer opportunities than Phil Neville, uh, with similar track records. And at some point that's going to catch up with him if it doesn't change. Now, you know, from a bigger perspective,
00:23:11
Speaker
I mean, the timbers have spent in transfer fees in the last 24 months, about $20 million, dollars maybe a little bit less than
Financial Critique of Timbers' Investments
00:23:18
Speaker
that. A ton of money. And they but they were trying to spend more. Thank you for listening to the Sound Rithhart Podcast Network, which now includes No Sunny Ettes, Lobbing Scorchers, and The Cooler Guild. We've been independent since August of 2023.
00:23:32
Speaker
but need your support to make sure it continues. Although this podcast is free, it's only made possible by your continued support. Memberships start as low as $25 a year, which not only helps make podcasts like this one happen, but also gets you access to everything we produce. If you're able to support us at higher levels, starting at $75 a year, you gain access to a host of other perks Most notably, entry into our members-only Discord where the smartest, funniest, and most engaged commenters share their thoughts and ideas. To find out more, just visit centeratheart.com and click the subscribe button in the top right corner. Thanks for listening!
00:24:12
Speaker
And they were trying to spend more because they they wanted to get Bertha Ramehan from Reados and they didn't. um They ended up spending a little bit less money to get ah Jonathan Rodriguez's worked out. I mean, that that's a signing that's gone well. ah yes the The Evander signing was the big chunk of that, $10 million dollars of that. I think at the end of this year, you would say that's also been a good signing. And so it's it's not that they've not spent money.
00:24:33
Speaker
But they've spent almost $20 million dollars in transfer fees. They've added a couple million dollars at least to their wage bill on an annual basis. And over the course of the last two years, that's taken them from eighth with about it with 1.35 points per game to 10th with 1.26 points per game to today, ninth, uh, with, uh, if they, if they would lose actually this weekend, and they'll be on that same 1.35 points per game number. I mean,
00:24:58
Speaker
If I were Merit Paulson, having spent that money, that would be something that would have me asking some really hard questions. I would be pretty hot under the collar about that ah because I would not feel like that's the ah ROI that I should be getting, ah putting that much into the into the team over the course of the last couple of years. And i I disagree a little bit with the take, and I think this is the retort that you hear the most to that.
00:25:22
Speaker
which is that you know they're sort of in the process of rebuilding. I think and MLS is just fundamentally different from you know maybe the and NBA or or MLB where you do sort of see these longer rebuilds that require some investment along the way, but it's just it's just a multi-year process. I think in MLS, you see teams go pretty quickly.
00:25:40
Speaker
ah When they make the right moves from ah from positions like the timbers were in up into much more competitive positions and they just haven't period And so, you know, I think that at some point look the timbers are not exactly the world's most rigorous self-reflection team in the world, ah they they have tended to, and and their leadership has tended to put them into a place where where weaknesses either aren't recognized or acted on until they're truly untenable. um and And we've kind of seen that over and over. ah But I mean, at at some point, they're good I think somebody's going to look at that and say, hey, they're there are going to be some changes here unless there's a very, very clear path to a more successful future.
00:26:25
Speaker
Well, that creates an interesting segue I think into sort of the mood around this team, which ah from a distance to me looks like it's much better than if we rewind to where we were at this point last year.
Improved Team Environment and Relations
00:26:39
Speaker
It was it was pretty bad. They did miss the playoffs. They were in the middle of.
00:26:46
Speaker
They had an interim head coach. They had, and more than that, they had all this negative energy around the team that was mainly of the timbers own making. Like it was, it wasn't entirely, yes, entirely of their own making. And it, but it wasn't just because the results in the field weren't so good and it wasn't because of a handful of questionable personnel decisions. It was like a seemingly truly toxic environment where the team was almost antagonizing and antagonizing its own fans in terms of the way that they were operating and the way that they were handling a ah variety of of issues, ah not the least of which was the whole thing around the thorns.
00:27:29
Speaker
and then but it it And again, I don't know this from firsthand experience, but it does seem like things have gotten a lot better this year. It seems like Phil Neville, to his credit, has done a lot more outreach in terms of of talking to the fans specifically and talking about the importance of playing for the fans and and doing all these kinds of things. I don't know that we've heard a lot less from Merritt Paulson, which I suppose is maybe a net positive.
00:27:55
Speaker
I don't, but I don't know that has there actually been any repair going on or is it just like, well, the team's fun now and they're not making us actively mad. I think there has been some repair that has happened on some fronts that I actually think is meaningful. Uh, you know, you reference, uh, Neville doing more to connect with supporters. I think that has happened. And I think that is something that he's done well, uh, over the course of his first year that he has.
00:28:20
Speaker
He's made the efforts and he's made the outreach that, frankly, the Timbers had not for a long, long time. ah and And I don't think you're wrong at all to call the relationship between the supporters in the club previously antagonistic. And he's not taken that approach. He's not sort of bought into that antagonism ah between ah between the supporters in the club. And in fact, I think he's he's done a lot to fight against it. ah The club was was crying out to have somebody ah who would be you know, sort of a a a more public face of the club. and And I do think that's to Phil Neville's credit that he's been able to do that ah and and has done so successfully. I think the big thing is the the team has also just been fun, right? Right. And and I mean, that is a change. The the last couple of years of G.L. Savarese's reign, not only were they not very good, but they were also just pretty tired to watch.
00:29:09
Speaker
Uh, and, and if nothing else, Neville's teams haven't been that they've kind of been, you know, it's been for loco soccer. Uh, and that's not, you know, that's what they call it. Yeah. I mean, I, I may love it. I hope that's what they call it because that's good. That's good. That's great.
00:29:28
Speaker
Yeah. I mean, but you know, I mean, they if you're, if you're kind of old and grouchy like me, that's not necessarily what you want to see, but it is a lot better cinema at least ah than what what we had over the course of the last few years. And so I think that has improved the vibes overall.
00:29:43
Speaker
And I mean, sort of off the field, there have not been at least sort of renewed instances of, of scandal off the field. And, and that certainly helps. And, and time has, I think salve some of those wounds. Um, do I think the club as a whole is, is, is, you know, over those things? No, I don't think so. Uh, and, and I think those things will always be at least sort of in the background. They certainly had this year and an at least embarrassing episode with the Bella.
00:30:13
Speaker
ah and and that's DiBella being a shirt sponsor before a scandal about DiBella's owner came out and the timbers rightfully had to part ways with them. um you know and And so it's not like those things are yeah entirely in the rearview mirror, or at least if they are in the rearview mirror, they're still like pretty close in the rearview mirror.
00:30:35
Speaker
But it's not like they've been continuing to step on rakes over and over and over again this year, which is an improvement from years past. And so I think all of those things have contributed to the vibes being a little bit better around the team ah over the course of the season. But I would be, I think it would be a mistake to assume that that means that everything is hunky dory and that people won't be disappointed if the outcome of this year is a ninth place finish and a you know one and done or ah a cameo ah in in the playoffs. I think people will be disappointed with that. And I think there will be some pressure then going on ah going on on them going into next year.
00:31:10
Speaker
Well, let's go into this game and and at least spend some time talking specifically about this
Timbers' Aggressive Tactics for Upcoming Match
00:31:15
Speaker
matchup. You know, the they've faced each other twice this year. They were both pretty cagey affairs. I think you could say neither one of them, you know, I think you could say that the timbers probably were their most conservative that they've been certainly at home. You know, you look at the, this is a team that scored 39 goals at home, which is tied for the second most in, in all of MLS. They had.
00:31:36
Speaker
the They had one of the best gold home gold differences, or expected gold differences, I should say, in MLS at at plus 13. They were a high-flying team at home. And the Sounders did an okay job of actually tamping that down. Now, they they obviously didn't do much to generate their own offense, but they played okay defensively ah in those two games. Or we saw a different kind of timbers team that we' we're used to seeing, I guess is maybe another way of putting it. but Which version of the timbers are you expecting to see on Saturday. Is this going to be the four loco soccer going on ah the road or is this going to be a much more conservative approach? I expect four loco. I expect four loco. Honestly, I kind of think that's that's what Neville was was winking at in that that article. oh um I think they're going to come out. I think on with the sounders on the road, and especially with the form that the sounders that were in at the time,
00:32:30
Speaker
I think it was pretty rational and pretty smart for the timbers to say, you know what? If we keep it clean, we don't think you can break us down. right yeah Because that's where the sounders were at that time. I don't think that's where the sounders are now. I think i think Brian Schmester and his team ah have unlocked a couple of things. ah You all have talked about Paul Rothrock kind of getting on a little bit of a heater recently, but I think they've also just unlocked a few things yeah that have you know, not only allowed the sounders to be on a, on a, on a better run of form in terms of points, but have also just allowed the sounders to be a much more dangerous team in the attack generally over the course of the last several weeks since, uh, since we saw them last. And so I think if the timbers go into this game in Seattle thinking, Oh, let's just run it back. We'll do the same thing that we did, uh, last time, they probably are going to have a pretty rude awakening, uh, or at least they're, they're setting themselves up to have a rude awakening.
00:33:20
Speaker
And so I think they are more likely ah to you know lean into their authentic selves, ah which is which is for loco soccer. It's to go out and and and turn the game into a track meet, to try to get Evander and to try to get ah Jonathan Rodriguez into space ah and and let those guys make a difference.
00:33:38
Speaker
ah That doesn't always come off well. That's why the Timbers are where they are and in the standings. But look, it sometimes does. you know i mean that's they They went down to RSL, they got a 3-3 on the road. ah They actually took ah the Galaxy on the road. They didn't win that game. They lost the that game. But I want to say it was 4-3.
00:33:55
Speaker
May have been 3-2, but it was a very, very good, very competitive game ah that they were stuck into against ah an extremely good Galaxy team. And so I think this is probably one where they're likely to lean into their plan A, ah which is to try to open up the game and and and make it wild, which will be fun watching, fun viewing for ah for everybody involved on decision day. oh But I think when you look at the sounder's overall form, that also plays very much into some of their strengths.
00:34:24
Speaker
Yeah. and And they are going to be also missing Kamal Miller, who is suspended on yellow card accumulation and Santi Moreno. And yeah well, that was i was my next question was, you know, the last time the Sounders and or maybe it wasn't the last time, but one of the times that the Sounders and and Timbers played, ah Phil Neville said almost the exact same thing about a vander being out, almost like it would be a miracle if he played and he started and I think he went 90 minutes in that game. Yeah. yeah I mean, there very well could be some gamesmanship there. My understanding, i'm not I don't think Santi has trained this week, or if he has trained, he's trained in a very limited capacity. ah So I would be surprised if there's a Willis Reed moment ah for Santi for Rainbow this week. I think that's that's probably legit, and I think we'll likely see Antony come in. in his stead Antony himself has had a ah year where he's been inconsistent, but has been very good at times, um and is especially good when the game gets open.
00:35:17
Speaker
ah Is not so good when the timbers have to possess a little bit more and to try to build out ah and and so, you know, I mean that personnel shift I think also sort of ah leans the timbers into trying to make this attract me. um But i I expect that to be to be true.
00:35:33
Speaker
We'll see. you know as you're You're right to point out ah that Neville's prognostications about ah player availability have not always borne out. um So keep that in the back of your mind. But I expect Antony instead of Santi Moreno. And then who do you expect to start at center back?
00:35:51
Speaker
So i you know it's it's been a rotating cast ah this year, ah to be sure. I think it'll likely be Dario Zupirich. And Miguel Araujo would be my guess, and he's the most like-for-like switch ah if ah a with with Miller out. That said, he has been out on international duty. And so assuming there are no knocks and assuming there's no sort of travel fatigue coming off of that, that would be my guess.
00:36:17
Speaker
ah in terms of where they go at center back. Zach McGraw has not really worked himself into consistent favor ah with with Neville, which has been a disappointment ah for the Timbers this year. That's somebody whom they very much thought ah was going to be part of their future ah in yeah in that position.
00:36:34
Speaker
The other guy, Cristiano Paredes, who was arguably the timbers most consistent performer last year, ah has found himself totally out of favor in a position that seems to be a position of need ah for the timbers. That's been a big problem of ah of how to fill the eight role. It's been David Aijala and Diego Chara in the 6'8 capacity. And I think there's reason to look at that unit and say it's not performed all that well.
00:37:01
Speaker
Uh, and, and so, you know, you would have thought that, that Paredes would have been in a position to, to break into that at some point this year. And he just hasn't. And then, uh, and then goal what is it it, is there an actual dispute as to who the number one goalkeeper is, or is it Maxine Crapo and the others and, uh, James, uh, Pentemus? Yeah, I think, I think the number one is probably Crapo. Uh, I, I, Pentemus has performed quite well this year. Yeah.
00:37:30
Speaker
Uh, and so I, I think what Neville said sort of, uh, after the game against FC Dallas, uh, was that this was an opportunity to get him a start. And I actually kind of believe that because he has performed well enough that, you know, it makes sense when you, when you have sort of a tight window of games to find one, uh, to rotate and to keep him warm. Um, so I would guess it's going to be max Cripo.
00:37:50
Speaker
ah He actually, I think, has been a little bit better for him. I think there were real reasons to criticize his form earlier in the season. I think his performances have been a little bit better of late ah than they were ah in the spring and and into the early summer. um So I haven't seen much of a basis to to you know make that switch on form. So I expect it's going to be crepa, but it's possible ah that Pantemos will get the start. That's been a little bit of a platoon. Yeah, and and as you alluded to, defender of the year candidate,
00:38:20
Speaker
Uh, as a parrot, she's just ah holding it down there at, at center back. Yeah. Given up what? 56 goals or whatever now. Yeah. how canen That's an obvious candidate for defender. Really obvious 55 goals. I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I sh you know, I cast some aspersions on them. 55 goals over the course of the year. I don't think anybody on this team is going to be winning defender of the year.
00:38:43
Speaker
Yeah. ah that That is my prediction. You can have me back if I'm wrong. and but and yeah Absolutely. so So more broadly speaking, and I guess, well, this is probably the the end of this ah
Emotional Significance of Cascadia Cup
00:38:54
Speaker
conversation, which I appreciate you you coming on and and giving us so much insight into the timbers. But this, ah take the, you know, take the records out of it, take everything out of it. is this so ah do Do you get the sense that the timbers are sort of approaching this as sort of their their MLS cup. Like, I don't know if they absolutely, if they legitimately Harbor hopes for winning, emla I'm sure internally they talk about it, but it feels like this is a a big emotional game, frankly, for both teams. I mean, I think the Tim, the sounders also are looking at this from a big emotional, much more emotionally than, than just standings.
00:39:31
Speaker
I do think so. I think this is the most important game of the rest of the season. ah Now, of course, if they go on a run and they find their way to the Western Conference Finals or something like that, you know, you would revise that opinion. But I think it is it is fair to say that that's reasonably unlikely. ah And so given the the the likelihoods of how things play out from here, i I am comfortable saying this is the most important game of the rest of the season.
00:39:56
Speaker
ah With the Cascadia Cup on the line, it's against the sounders. I mean, there there there are all of those emotional strings. And then also, legitimate hardware. ah yeah The Cascadia Cup is not nothing. It's an important trophy ah that I think all three of the teams ah that that partake in it would would very much want.
00:40:13
Speaker
Yeah. And so, you know, in a year in which ah in which there are not many other opportunities for trophies, this is one. And so I think this is the game that they ah that that they are focusing on. So notwithstanding the fact that it arguably for them means less than the same things now that it looks very likely that they're going to host ah the playing game regardless.
00:40:35
Speaker
ah the i I expect the timbers to be ah to be full strength. I expect them to put everything into the game ah tomorrow notwithstanding the fact that they're going to have to turn around and play a playing game ah just a few days later. This is this is the prize.
00:40:50
Speaker
Yeah. Yeah. And I don't know if it's quite that extreme for the sounders, but they, you know, you can see, you know, it's probably a few years ago where they started getting tired of this narrative around the, why can't you beat the timbers at home thing? And it's now reaching a point where they're just like, I, like, I don't have anything else to say. I just, they're out of things to say. and I think they just want to put it to bed. I think that that's part of it. I think,
00:41:15
Speaker
this has been a weird season for the Sounders. They, you know, they're sitting on 56 points, which is a ah very respectable goal total. But 50 a 59 looks a lot better than 56. But I do think it's going to take a lot of shine off the season as a whole for if they if they lose or or even tie this this game against the the Timbers, especially with the Cascadia Cup on the line, even if it doesn't really make that much difference in terms of Champions League qualification or playoff seating, I just think it's harder from an emotional perspective for them to
00:41:49
Speaker
to go into the playoffs, to look forward, to even look back on the season as sort of ah a missed opportunity unless they can win this game. So I think, like I said, the stakes are not maybe as high for the Sounders, but it is I think they're kidding themselves if they don't if they don't admit that this is emotionally a really, really important game for them.
00:42:09
Speaker
Yeah, and and I think especially going into the playoffs, right? The last thing you want to do right before, you know, things get really real. And I think the Sounders are ah are fairly described as ah as ah as a real dark horse contender to come out of the West in the playoffs, given both their style of play ah and the recent form. I think they're a team that very fairly could be looking at the playoffs saying we want to we want to be a factor here.
00:42:33
Speaker
Yeah, they're not they're not the veritable chum in the water there. I think they they see themselves as one of the sharks. And and the last thing you want to do when you're going into sort of a shark oriented playoff is take a loss to the rival at home to to finish the regular season. So I would expect there to be quite a bit of emotional valence for the Sounders on this game. And I hope so. I mean, these games are more fun.
00:42:57
Speaker
when the teams are are are fully stuck into it. and I'm in you know optimistic that that's going to be the case coming up here tomorrow. Do you do you know if there's much of a traveling contingent coming up?
00:43:10
Speaker
I don't know. i would I would imagine so, at least sort of in line with ah with pre-pandemic historic ah levels would be my expectation. It's a big game. Everybody's known that this has been decision day for a while. and I don't know if I'm the league, if that's a scheduling decision that I would make again, but decision day up in Seattle, I mean, that's a lot of stakes and that's that's worth tuning in for. Absolutely.
Nos Arietes Podcast Insights
00:43:31
Speaker
Well, Chris, thank you so much for hanging out with us.
00:43:34
Speaker
i Hopefully we can get soccer made in Portland going again and again, because ah that I always enjoyed soccer made in Portland. I hope so too. I always enjoyed it as well. um But I hope so too. But ah nonetheless, I appreciate you having me on. And then I'm looking forward to the game tomorrow. Absolutely. All right. Well, with that, I am Jeremiah Shan. This is Nosadietes. And we will catch you next time.
00:44:33
Speaker
on