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Financing Future Cities: Urbanisation and sustainable finance
30 Plays3 years ago
Cities across the globe are in the midst of change – driven by the trends of digitalisation and decarbonisation. An enormous investment will be needed in infrastructure, utilities and services to make these changes a reality. In this episode Greg Clark talks with Dr. Jaana Remes from Mckinsey Global Institute and HSBC’s Head of ESG Solutions for EMEA, Farnam Bidgoli, about how cities are becoming more sustainable and how It’s all being financed.
Financing Future Cities is a podcast series produced by HSBC and hosted by Greg Clark. It sets out to examine the complex and evolving role of urban hubs through the lens of banking and finance. To find out more about how HSBC are supporting customers transition to net-zero, click here.
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Transcript
Introduction to HSBC's Podcast Series
00:00:00
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This is HSBC Global Viewpoint, your window into the thinking, trends and issues shaping global banking and markets.
00:00:09
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Join us as we hear from industry leaders and HSBC experts on the latest insights and opportunities for your business.
00:00:18
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Thank you for listening.
Focus on 'Financing Future Cities'
00:00:34
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This is Financing Future Cities, a podcast series created by HSBC to examine the complex and evolving role of urban hubs through the lens of banking and finance.
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With more than half the world's population living in cities, and this number only expected to grow.
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Urban hubs are increasingly the global drivers of prosperity, serving as models for sustainability and incubators of innovation.
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Join us now as we look to the future of sustainable urbanization and learn about the power and potential of future cities.
Speakers on Urbanization and Finance
00:01:12
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Hello and welcome to today's episode where we're going to explore global urbanization and sustainable finance.
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Thanks for tuning in.
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My name is Greg Clark.
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I'm Group Advisor for Future Cities and New Industries at HSBC.
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And today I'll be talking with Dr. Yana Remes from McKinsey Global Institute and HSBC's Head of ESG Solutions and
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sustainable finance for EMEA, Farnam Bidgoli.
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To briefly introduce our guest speakers today, Dr. Yana Remez is an economist and a partner at McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey's business and economics research arm.
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Since 2003, she's led MGI's research on competitiveness, growth, health, and urbanization.
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She leads MGI's Urban World Research Series that includes sizing the impact of smart city solutions on citizens' quality of life, mapping of the economic power of cities, identifying global consumer groups shaping global demand, and mapping of the global company landscape.
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Farhan Bidgoli is HSBC's Head of ESG Solutions for ELEA, where she advises HSBC's capital market plans across all sectors on sustainable finance and ESG considerations.
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She also sits on HSBC's Green Bond and Loan Committee and acts as HSBC's representative to the ICMA Green Bond Principles Executive Committee, where she co-chairs the Climate Transition Finance Working Group, and she co-leads work on the Just Transition.
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She has over 10 years' experience working with investors, issuers, and other stakeholders on the integration of environmental and social factors into investment decisions, including the development of investment strategies for some of the world's largest asset owners.
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Thank you both for joining me today.
00:03:16
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Thank you for having me, Greg.
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It's great to be here.
00:03:19
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Great.
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Well, let's get started.
Pandemic's Impact on City Dynamics
00:03:22
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The pandemic has been a catalyst for changes in the flows of our cities.
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We're witnessing a shift away from the established focus for cities to simply serve commuters or to host large corporates or even to serve mass consumption.
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And cities are increasingly reinventing themselves to be more liveable and more sustainable places.
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The shift is being driven by the trends of digitization and decarbonization, both of which have been accelerated by the pandemic.
Urbanization Trends Post-Pandemic
00:03:55
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So Jana, if I may start with you, what is the most recent data telling us about how the urbanization process is now playing out worldwide?
00:04:07
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Urbanization as a broad phenomenon has been one of the most consistent trends that of course continues its course across the globe.
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What the pandemic has changed is the pattern of urbanization.
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The bright lights of leading cities got dimmer with the lockdown policies and social distancing.
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And as the pandemic prolonged and people got used to working, eating, exercising, socializing, doing almost everything in their homes, many folks who can work from a distance were attracted to the more affordable, often smaller cities that offered more living space for the same money.
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This is very likely to leave a lasting mark on the shape of urbanization across regions, with shifts in both population growth rates between big and small cities, as well as relative real estate prices between urban city centers.
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That means both the office space, as well as commercial food, exercise, and other personal services that used to serve large community populations.
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And on the other hand, the smaller cities where we are likely to see and are already seeing some growth in the more commercial activity, meeting the demand for the growing populations.
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But these are not going to be even across the different regions.
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The US has traditionally had a more mobile workforce and already during the pandemic, we have seen more temporary and even permanent moves.
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We'll see some of that in Europe, but probably less in Asia where the pandemic experience has been quite different.
00:05:33
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Jana, this is fascinating.
00:05:35
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So I think you've said
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Global urbanisation is going to continue, but it will take a new pattern.
00:05:42
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I'm sure we'll come back to that.
00:05:44
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Secondly, there seem to be the biggest negative changes in the city centres of the large cities, but there are positive changes as you see them in smaller cities and large towns.
00:05:55
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And thirdly, in the regions of the world, the process of adjustment or the degree of change is going to vary because in each of those regions, there's a different pattern of population mobility or technology adoption.
00:06:12
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Is that right, Jana?
00:06:13
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Absolutely right.
00:06:14
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Those are the three trends.
Cities' Role in Climate Challenges
00:06:16
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Great.
00:06:17
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So if we then think about this in a more precise way,
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Is having cities still going to be the best way to house the 10 billion people that we will have on the planet sometime this century?
00:06:33
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And what kinds of influence has the pandemic been having, as it were, on what those settlement patterns will look like in the long term?
00:06:41
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Yes, absolutely.
00:06:43
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Cities are still the best way to house 10 billion people, especially as we are trying to address the climate challenge.
00:06:49
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Dense cities obviously use resources much more productively than dispersed populations.
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Think of, for example, the per person cost of heating a house in a multifamily building where all the housing units are connected, much less than very separated, different individual houses.
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Or think of the trip to getting groceries from the store to home.
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In large cities, you can often walk or drive just a very short distance, which is not the case when you're in rural areas.
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Most cities can do a lot better than they are doing today, and the pandemic has provided some of the tools for us for improvement.
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We have all learned to work at a distance, and many folks enjoyed the additional time to sleep or exercise,
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when they no longer need to spend all the time in commuting, which of course has much smaller carbon footprint and obviously health benefits to goods.
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And businesses as well realized how productive employees can be while working from home, but also how much they can save if they need less real estate in some of the most expensive city centers of the world.
00:07:49
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And as business travel came to halt, the financial and carbon savings did not go unnoticed either.
00:07:56
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Of course, there are costs when we cut a lot of the face-and-face interactions, but few firms where workers can work from home are likely to return to exactly where they were before.
00:08:06
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We expect to see about 20% increase in working from home, so on average about one day a week, which is not trivial, as well as a 20% decline in business travel.
00:08:16
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And these all will help and contribute to some of the positive changes we want to see on the climate front.
00:08:23
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And of course, going back to your first question, declining business travel will further contribute to the shift in the broader organization patterns.
00:08:31
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Many of the business destination cities are going to see a lasting decline in their inbound business travel.
00:08:37
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Once again, this is a fascinating answer.
00:08:39
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And in a way, what's so different about what you're saying is that the climate emergency or the climate challenge has now become the driver for embracing a new kind of urbanization.
00:08:53
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If you like, cities are the solution for planetary sustainability.
00:08:59
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And you talked a lot about the congregational power of cities, good density, the ability of people
00:09:06
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under the conditions of change that the pandemic has brought, to be able to make better decisions about where they live, how they work, when they travel.
00:09:15
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And you foresee savings coming from this as not just financial savings for businesses, but also carbon savings for the planet overall.
00:09:25
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So Jana, are you feeling optimistic about the post-pandemic city?
00:09:29
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I am optimistic by nature and I am definitely hopeful given some of the changes we are seeing in many of the cities.
00:09:35
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And I think the impressions on many people's minds on how they would like the world to look like after the pandemic will hopefully help us move to the right direction.
00:09:44
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Very good.
Investments in Sustainable Infrastructure
00:09:45
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Thank you, Jana.
00:09:45
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Now, Farnam, if I turn to you, 10 billion people living in something like 10,000 cities and large towns will need a huge investment over the next 50 years in infrastructure, utilities, facilities, amenities and services.
00:10:04
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Let me ask you the most direct question.
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Is the money really available to do that?
00:10:10
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You're absolutely right, Greg.
00:10:11
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The investments that are needed to build cities that are accessible, that enable their populations to thrive, that are sustainable, are really significant investments.
00:10:20
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The World Bank estimates that 93 trillion of sustainable infrastructure investments are needed globally by 2030, which is a massive need.
00:10:28
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It's clear that the funds available through national revenue sources is not going to be sufficient.
00:10:33
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We need to look at new sources of financing through private instruments and partnerships.
00:10:38
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The good news is that we're seeing much greater appetite from capital markets to get involved.
00:10:43
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We continue to see significant inflows into sustainable investment funds.
00:10:48
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Morningstar estimated that by the end of last year, nearly $4 trillion of assets under management had some kind of sustainable mandate.
00:10:56
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And to me, there's a clear affiliation between the capital that is looking to align to the UN sustainable development goals, the capital that is looking to enable the climate solutions that are needed for net zero, the capital that is looking for positive environmental and social impact.
00:11:12
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There's a clear affiliation between that capital and the investments that enable access to services and basic infrastructure and allow cities populations to thrive.
00:11:23
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So I think the money is available.
00:11:25
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It's just going to require some creativity to connect the dots and ensure that the projects that need it can access it.
00:11:32
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Arnamb, thank you very much.
00:11:33
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I hope we'll hear more about this creativity shortly.
00:11:36
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But I think you've said very clearly that the need is clear.
00:11:39
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It's already being estimated the quantum of the capital required is huge.
00:11:44
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But the good news is that the appetite of the capital markets is great.
00:11:50
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And I believe you said very clearly that the capital is now being increasingly aligned with the goals of sustainable development.
00:11:58
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So it's simply a question of matching the capital with the opportunity, which I'm sure we'll come back to.
00:12:05
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But just before we do that, please, can we answer the question about the rise of sustainable finance?
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We hear this phrase a lot.
00:12:15
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How is sustainable finance different to any other kind of finance?
00:12:19
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Indeed, what makes it sustainable?
Understanding Sustainable Finance
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So at its most basic, sustainable finance is finance that integrates environmental and social considerations.
00:12:29
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And over the course of the past decade, the most significant part of the market has been the growth in labeled products across capital markets, green bonds, green loans.
00:12:39
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These labeled products, I think, generally can fall into two buckets, either use of proceeds or sustainability linked.
00:12:45
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So use of proceeds, for instance, are instruments where the proceeds are earmarked towards projects with environmental or social attributes.
00:12:54
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So you can, for instance, think about a loan that is allocated or earmarked towards investments in electric vehicle chargers or into a transit system, something that has a clear environmental impact that can be quantified and reported on.
00:13:07
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The other bucket of instruments are sustainability-linked instruments.
00:13:12
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And here, it's the attributes of the instrument itself that make it a sustainable finance instrument.
00:13:18
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There's some sort of key performance indicator that is built into the instrument that will either penalize or incentivize the issuer, depending on whether or not they meet that key performance indicator.
00:13:30
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So, for instance, the most common are instruments where the issuer
00:13:34
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embeds their GHG reduction target into the instrument.
00:13:38
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And if they fail to meet that target, they might see a pricing penalty.
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And if they meet that target or exceed that target, they might see some kind of incentive.
00:13:47
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Last year, we saw nearly a trillion of issuance across bonds and loans that had some kind of sustainability attribute.
00:13:53
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either use of proceeds or sustainability linked.
00:13:56
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So it's a pretty impressive growth over the course of the past few years.
00:14:00
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You know, if you think about it, we started this market over a decade ago.
00:14:03
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And since 2018, when you were looking at about 100 million in green bond issuance, we're now at over a trillion across capital markets.
00:14:11
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But I think that the market is actually much larger than just the labeled product market.
00:14:16
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Sustainability considerations are now permeating every part of capital markets.
00:14:20
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I see the growth of sustainable finance as something much larger than just labeled instruments.
00:14:25
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We're seeing sustainability considerations across infrastructure investments, in M&A, in IPO conversations.
00:14:31
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So it's that integration of environmental and social factors that permeate across capital markets that we should really think about when we think about sustainable finance.
00:14:39
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Farnham, this is really very helpful.
00:14:41
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And I think I've taken three things from what you've said.
00:14:45
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Firstly, that sustainable finance is the right form of finance to support sustainable cities or urban infrastructure.
00:14:54
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Secondly, that this incentivization and penalization effect seems to me to be very strong, that if a borrower receives sustainable finance but doesn't deliver the environmental outcomes they've promised, they'll end up paying more.
00:15:09
Speaker
And if they do deliver the environmental outcomes they've promised or do better, they'll end up paying less for their money, if I've understood correctly.
00:15:17
Speaker
And then thirdly, of course, this kind of finance is growing so that it's not just about green bonds.
00:15:23
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It's also the application of sustainable finance to many other kinds of investments, supply chains, M&As, IPOs, and so much more.
00:15:33
Speaker
Did I get that about right, Farhan?
00:15:36
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You're absolutely right, Greg.
00:15:37
Speaker
So can I ask you just to say a word or two more about the creativity you spoke of before?
00:15:44
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What is the creativity that's required to match this new motivated capital with this global imperative for sustainability in our cities?
00:15:56
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So I use the word creativity because I think often many of the elements are there, but we need to see them put together in new ways.
00:16:04
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So for instance, there's a lot of data collection and reporting that goes on in cities.
00:16:08
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We're also seeing cities take the lead from a policy perspective in terms of cities signing up to net zero pledges and starting to reorientate policy to achieve that.
00:16:18
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How do you leverage those instruments and those elements in a way that addresses the interests and needs of capital markets?
00:16:26
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One great example is what we've seen from cities like Paris and Gothenburg, who have taken to issuing debt in sustainable format.
00:16:34
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They've developed sustainable finance frameworks where they outline for investors the kind of projects they're carrying out and commit to annual reporting on the impacts of those projects.
00:16:44
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And in doing so, they're able to reach out to a much broader group of investors, investors that are looking for sustainable projects and a broader order book than they would with a conventional issuance.
00:16:55
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And I think that's just the beginning.
00:16:57
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You know, if I add to those elements of policy and data collection and investor appetite, the exciting developments in technology where we're seeing a lot more by way of immediate data collection, then there's huge potential in terms of what that might mean in terms of being able to develop and deliver real impact metrics to investors.
00:17:17
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And I think that's really exciting.
00:17:19
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So this is fascinating the way this is emerging and growing.
00:17:23
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And let me turn if I may to Jana now and say, given what Farnham has said, the search for sustainable cities has been in train for some
Cities and Climate Risk Vulnerability
00:17:33
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time.
00:17:33
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And indeed, Jana, you've written a lot about that in the past.
00:17:37
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And we now think of the net zero city as a kind of key agenda.
00:17:42
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What does this transition involve as you see it, Jana?
00:17:46
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Cities are at the front line of the climate risk.
00:17:49
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More than 90% of all urban areas are coastal.
00:17:53
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By 2050, more than 800 million urban residents could be affected by sea level rise and coastal flooding.
00:18:00
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And 1.6 billion people could be vulnerable to chronic extreme heat.
00:18:05
Speaker
650 million could face water scarcity.
00:18:07
Speaker
So it's absolutely no surprise that climate addressing it, adapting to it, is at the center of many cities' agendas.
00:18:15
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Yet, while we are seeing increasing net zero commitments from cities, companies, from countries, from many, many organizations, sadly, detailed plans on how to get there are much rarer.
00:18:27
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The reason is that getting to net zero is hard.
00:18:30
Speaker
It requires...
00:18:32
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not just the finance that Farnam has been talking about, which is critically important and a major barrier.
00:18:37
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My colleagues at the McKinsey Global Institute estimate that we would need 275 trillion in cumulative investment over the next three decades to get to a net zero scenario by 2050.
00:18:48
Speaker
But that is only part of it.
00:18:50
Speaker
That investment will come in massive changes in our physical, economic, social, and political environment.
00:18:57
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It will take time, not just money, to get there.
00:19:02
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And I think especially as we are thinking about how unequal the climate impact will be, making sure that we address the challenges of some of the most vulnerable population is key.
00:19:13
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No city can do it alone.
00:19:14
Speaker
This is a collective challenge.
00:19:16
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So I don't have the answer to you.
00:19:18
Speaker
I think the only thing I can say is that with the climate challenge ahead, we really can't start talking about new normal after the pandemic, for example, unless your definition of new normal is the constancy of change.
00:19:32
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Thank you, Jana.
00:19:33
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Actually, this is a very clear answer.
00:19:36
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$275 trillion by 2050.
00:19:40
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Massive risks in terms of water, heat, health, drought.
00:19:46
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The net zero city emerging as an organizing idea.
00:19:50
Speaker
to bring all of this together and the requirement, as you said very clearly, to help the most vulnerable people.
00:19:57
Speaker
It seems to me, though, that we might ask just a little more about this, Jana.
00:20:01
Speaker
Is it the case that the big changes are going to be in the built environment, transport, utilities,
00:20:09
Speaker
Those kinds of things, the things that, as it were, make up both the resilience of the city and at the same time are the big users of carbon or the big emitters of carbon emissions.
00:20:21
Speaker
Is it right to focus in those sorts of areas?
00:20:24
Speaker
Absolutely.
00:20:25
Speaker
It is land, it is the industrial systems, it is transportation.
00:20:31
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All of those are the big contributors, but they are not the only ones that are going to see the change.
00:20:37
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It is going to impact households, individuals as well.
00:20:40
Speaker
So it is probably the most comprehensive change that we have seen in a long time.
00:20:46
Speaker
But I think we have pretty clear urgency and mandate to get it right.
00:20:51
Speaker
And Farnham, is there anything that you would add to that in terms of what the transition will involve at the city level?
Partnerships for Sustainability Goals
00:20:59
Speaker
Yeah, absolutely.
00:20:59
Speaker
So as Jana was speaking, I was reflecting on the need for partnerships.
00:21:04
Speaker
You have these shared objectives and goals alongside the net zero goals and changes that we're seeing in cities.
00:21:13
Speaker
You also have corporates that are setting net zero targets.
00:21:16
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And you have development agencies and banks that are looking to support net zero to bring these parties together and find solutions that can address differences and risk appetite and return and structure the different instruments that are needed.
00:21:29
Speaker
I think there's a real need for partnership.
00:21:31
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Absolutely right.
00:21:32
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Great.
00:21:33
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So a strong consensus that partnership between cities and capital, between public and private, I guess between local and global, is going to be important as well.
00:21:44
Speaker
So let me ask each of you one final question, if I may.
Pandemic-driven City Reforms
00:21:48
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Jana, as we think about this post-pandemic world that we begin to anticipate, do you believe that cities can emerge stronger?
00:21:59
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Can they be stronger economically, socially and environmentally?
00:22:04
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Can they bring these things together?
00:22:06
Speaker
Yes, absolutely.
00:22:07
Speaker
The pandemic forced cities to make changes and many of them used that opportunity to advance their long-term agendas and get some hard things done that were harder to do in earlier times.
00:22:18
Speaker
And this was especially the case in the regions where you had the stimulus support available for new investments and change, especially related to green investments, for example.
00:22:28
Speaker
So some cities advanced their green agenda and climate commitments by reducing car lanes and opening up more space for pedestrians and bicyclers, perhaps closing streets completely and creating outdoor dining and other recreational areas for their citizens.
00:22:45
Speaker
Others focused on caring for the most vulnerable and prioritized housing and health care for those who lacked both.
00:22:51
Speaker
And many improved the care of older citizens that were especially hard hit with the health risks from the pandemic.
00:22:58
Speaker
And yet others focused on rethinking their economic development, supporting the small and medium-sized enterprises that were very hard hit by the lockdown policies.
00:23:07
Speaker
And others reimagined the role of commute hubs and city centres that were left empty without the commuters.
00:23:13
Speaker
So just like the pandemic has forced most of us to take a pause and reflect on how our lives are now and how they should be and will be different afterwards, for cities this is also a moment, an opportunity to renew and reshape themselves.
00:23:28
Speaker
Thank you so much, Jana.
00:23:29
Speaker
It's such a thoughtful answer because what I really hear you saying is that the pandemic, when we look back at it historically, despite the loss of life and the trauma that goes with that, the pandemic may prove to have been a great catalyst or accelerator of reforms and changes that were needed anyway.
00:23:52
Speaker
Is that right?
00:23:53
Speaker
Very much right.
00:23:54
Speaker
The silver lining to a very sad era.
00:23:57
Speaker
Thank you.
00:23:58
Speaker
And Farnham, a final question for you.
00:24:01
Speaker
Can you give us some examples of how this new agenda of sustainable investment and sustainable finance can be applied or is being applied to cities already as they begin to pursue this post-pandemic agenda that Jana has described?
00:24:20
Speaker
Absolutely.
00:24:21
Speaker
So as I mentioned, I think we've seen some great examples of cities issuing debt in sustainable format.
00:24:28
Speaker
The city of Paris, I mentioned, that has issued sustainable bonds most recently, 100 million euros at the end of November last year, where funds were allocated towards
00:24:38
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projects around transportation including the new Paris tramway and renewable energy and lowering energy consumption across the city.
00:24:47
Speaker
One other really exciting development that we're now seeing is cities issuing in sustainability linked format.
00:24:53
Speaker
So last year we saw the city of Helgenberg issue in sustainable finance format where they issued 500 million kroners
00:25:04
Speaker
in a sustainability-linked bond where the return on the bond was linked to its targets to meet net zero by 2035.
00:25:12
Speaker
So it's really interesting to see, you know, cities increasingly using green social sustainability linked bonds as part of their financing toolkits.
00:25:21
Speaker
We've also seen some great examples of partnerships, particularly, you know, facilitated by the C40 Innovative Finance Facility, which I think is a really interesting project because it works with cities to facilitate access to finance,
00:25:36
Speaker
for climate change mitigation and resilience projects, but is really working to help them build out the business case for those projects, which is an important element that doesn't often get the attention it needs in terms of financing.
00:25:49
Speaker
Varnam, thank you very much.
00:25:51
Speaker
What I can hear from what you've said very clearly is that there is direct lending happening to cities that's enabling them to make these changes.
00:26:01
Speaker
But there are also new global platforms emerging like the C40 and indeed others that are forging the partnerships that you spoke of before.
Conclusion on Urbanization and Sustainability
00:26:11
Speaker
Well, I think we could discuss this topic of the future of cities post-pandemic and the net zero challenge, the rise of sustainable finance and investing, and the opportunity to bring these two great agendas together to create a world which is not just continuing its journey of urbanization, but is actually reforming and improving what cities look like.
00:26:36
Speaker
Thank you both very much for such a fascinating discussion and for joining us today on the Financing Future Cities podcast.
00:26:45
Speaker
And to our listeners, thank you for tuning into this episode of Financing Future Cities.
00:26:52
Speaker
If you enjoyed this discussion, then listen to the full series as we take a deep dive into key topics on the urban decarbonization journey of cities and their ecosystems.
00:27:05
Speaker
If you're interested in learning more about how HSBC can support you in your transition to net zero, visit the link in the episode description.
00:27:15
Speaker
Thank you for listening today.
00:27:17
Speaker
This has been HSBC Global Viewpoint, Banking and Markets.
00:27:21
Speaker
For more information about anything you heard in this podcast or to learn about HSBC's global services and offerings, please visit gbm.hsbc.com.