Transcript
Speaker: All right, welcome back everybody to Warm Weather Fans, the Sunbelt Podcast. My name is Brian Stone, along with Zeke Palermo, your two hosts of this here podcast. And we're here to talk about the 2026 Marshall Thundering Herd. I even wore my green to match the theme. I noticed that.
Speaker: How sweet of you. Zeke, before we get started, how's it going? I'm good, man. For me, the summer has officially started because you know what premiered as we're recording this a week ago is Big Brother 28. I am absolutely buzzing about this, man.
Speaker: I've never watched Big Brother in my entire life. I was only introduced to it a couple years ago ah by my college roommate who grew up watching it. And they just had like, you know, sometimes on Netflix, they'll put like two random seasons of a show, but they're not goingnna put the whole thing. They did that with Big Brother.
Speaker: um And so we were screwing around. It's a summer. We had nothing else to do. So we he and I binged a season of Big Brother. He introduced it to me. And I fell in love with it. I i don't usually like the reality stuff. i i It gets me, man. i Oh, this season has started pretty poorly. i'm not I'm not absolutely electric for it. I think the cast seems a little ah bland, but they're i mean expect the unexpected. That's what they say, and that's what that's all you can do.
Speaker: I used to watch real world back in the day. Oh, wow. That was on. ah And then I watched the, some of the challenge seasons um back when it was like, they had themes and stuff where it would be like battle of the sexes or something like that. So LaShawn McCoy just announced he's going to be on some reality show.
Speaker: um It wasn't the challenge. It was... I don't know. Keep out for that. thing I think the challenge only takes former like reality show stars. i don't think I don't think they take... Because it would be weird to throw like ah an athlete in there because it's like some guys are just getting off their couch and then other other people, like you can tell that you're like, oh, this guy's been cycling roids for the last eight months like getting ready for this. So it's just like a...
Speaker: like a fun mix. Um, all right, let's, let's get to the topic at hand, which is Marshall. Um, so last season, first season for Tony Gibson coming in from, I think it was NC state. He was the defensive coordinator, um, had also previously worked as the defensive coordinator at like West Virginia and stuff like that.
Speaker: um, i I know that the hardcore Marshall homers last year were mad at us ah because we forecasted this team to have like four or five wins um because of the mass exodus of talent they had. Braylon Braxton, namely Mike Green getting drafted. They they lost a ton of like talent. And so we were just like...
Speaker: there's a natural regression in place. Like it has to happen. There's no way that you can turn over an entire team like this and just hit the ground running. We're back in the East title game. Like it's not how it works.
Speaker: So they had an interesting season last year. They started off really well and then had a backslide down the backstretch where they went one and four. um We can get into...
Speaker: the quarterback, Carlos Del Rio Wilson, who has been projected for every basically Sunbelt award in the preseason. um i Again, we talked about this sort of a little bit on the Louisiana episode. I don't know if this is a thing of like, we have to pick somebody, so we might as well pick like someone who's returning, or there's really like this huge like stride he's going to make.
Speaker: But I just have a hard time... with the projection of it all, which is, Oh, all of a sudden he's going to start pushing the ball down the field and stop being, you know, check down Charlie like he was last year and relying on the running game and all of that sort of stuff. So where do you, where do you kind of want to start with Marshall?
Speaker: um I think it's worth noting last year. ah They go five and seven last year, um but they were in a lot of really tight one-score games. Obviously, the one that really sticks out is the James Madison game, where that was...
Speaker: like a five-point game until maybe the final two-minute drill in which James Madison scores to run it up to 35-23. They were in like a good— Be Old Dominion like a drum. Mm-hmm.
Speaker: Yeah. So so they they were in a hand— Some of the— like I mean, Old Dominion was kind of consensus number two in the East, probably consensus number two in the Conference— depending on how you scratch it. Obviously, James Madison has been the cream of a crop for a while.
Speaker: um But then you lose to App State by two. like that that That's a really weird result after playing James Madison two weeks prior. um From a high level, the offense was elite.
Speaker: putting up 30 points a game. Obviously, Carlos Del Rio Wilson kind of engineering that. The stat I saw is that he is, other than Byron Brown, ah who just transferred to Auburn right from UCF, is the only quarterback in the country ah coming back after having 2,000 passing yards and 600 rushing.
Speaker: um That's the stat I saw. I didn't test its veracity. But um to your point about, like, do we just pick a guy – i No one's picking Byron Brown as the top quarterback in the SEC, right? like that and And I get there's kind of levels to it where you know we're at a level where performance, outlier performance can dictate ability to a degree or can be can indicate ability to a degree, whereas um
Speaker: you know maybe you could make the argument that in the SEC, performance is not always indicative of like raw talent. um I don't know. I i didn't i think Carlos Gilroyo, I think we did him a disservice last year because he was definitely overshadowed by the other elite quarterbacks like Colton Joseph, obviously, Alonzo Barnett, Jalen Rayner, Brad Jack. like There were other guys who had even better years than he did on paper, a little more electric, played for teams that were winning more games.
Speaker: So I think it's very possible that he went understated last season. ah His production did. But you're right. I mean, we talked about it last year, and it got better as the season went on. But like he started as an under-5 ADOT guy for much of the season. And yeah, he was among the nation leaders in quarterback efficiency.
Speaker: um But again, that's because he he he's taking easy passes. He also benefited from having one of the best offensive lines in in the conference. Um, and he gets one of those guys back. Jalen slappy, who was probably the best offensive lineman in the conference last year. He'll probably be so, uh, again this year.
Speaker: Um, I, I don't know. i I think Marshall's in a position where they, there is a lot of turnover. Um, but the offense is in a good spot. It's all about the defense though, man, 30 points allowed.
Speaker: Uh, they bring in a new defensive coordinator. Um, A guy, Brad Lambert, who had previously been the Marshall defensive coordinator, was the head coach at Charlotte for a long time. i learned today while reading up on some of the message boards, um they're saying Lambert was in the ah job hunt when they hired Charles Huff. Those were kind of the two final names. So. They finally got their guy in a way.
Speaker: um i don't know. if If the defense steps forward, I think this team will be punching with Old Dominion for second best in the East. yeah And we've talked about second best in the East could very well be, depending on Troy, depending on if Louisiana actually puts it together, could be second best in the conference. um But if the defense doesn't show up, if you know you're putting up these games where you're again like, allowing 44 points to a Coastal Carolina team that at the point... I think that was like mid-Samari Collier, so obviously that's not like Tad Hudson type Coastal, but 44 points against Coastal Carolina is far too many if you if you want to make a bowl game, if you want to be the... Allowing 54 points to a Louisiana team that didn't have enough functional offensive line all season?
Speaker: Yeah, so so there are pieces... like I think Del Rio Wilson can take this team far. I don't think... I've been pretty public, and and I tweeted this out from our Twitter account, at Warm Weather Fans.
Speaker: I don't think he's going to end up as the conference offensive player of the year. I think there's just like three or four quarterbacks, that um namely like Lunch and...
Speaker: Goose Crowder. Goose Crowder. like I think Cameron Brown could like win as many games as Carlos Del Rio Wilson and just look better. um I don't know if that's necessarily in the cards for Georgia State, but like i I think Carlos Del Rio Wilson may have the highest odds as an individual to win this award, but I don't think there's a chance it's him.
Speaker: And it could be, I mean, it could just as easily be, so say like JMU repeats, right? And they win the East and they win the conference. there I think they're in the middle of a quarterback battle if I if i was keeping up with it.
Speaker: It could just be whoever emerges from that because a lot of times it feels like they just give it to the guy who's on the quarterback for the best team. um Unless there's just some insane efficiency running back season in there where it's like a Rasheen Ali going back, you know, in in Marshall's history history or something like that, where you're like, oh, this guy just ran for 1400 yards or like Ahmad Hardy or something. yeah like You're like, you're like, oh, we just can't deny it. Like, even if even if the team is like not great um to kind of illustrate.
Speaker: why I'm very like reticent to just go ahead and bestow like all of these awards on Del Rio Wilson. To to further illustrate how they fell off at the end of last year when they finished the season one and four, ah he started out...
Speaker: through his first four starts, he had 11 to 0 touchdown to interception ratio. If you want to say that's because he threw the ball very close to the line of scrimmage and he wasn't putting it, you know, in harm's way, or you just want to say he was insanely efficient, um' I'll hear either one of those because those numbers don't really lie.
Speaker: However, the last six games, a 6 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio, he was putting the ball in harm's way. um i know I bring this up all the time, but, you know, I have a hard time I know it was just like a ah one-off or whatever, but when they played Georgia Southern, he looked like he had nothing. Like, it was like the Monstars from Space Jam, like, sucked the talent out of him. Like, it was it was ugly. They put Zion Turner, who's still on the roster as the second quarterback in the game. Like, he got benched for Zion Turner, who I thought looked better in that in those minutes in the second half of that game especially.
Speaker: So it's just like... I mean, you go through, it's like, okay, he threw for what? 200 yards and a loss to app. Uh, as a, as a team, they threw for 308 against Georgia Southern. But again, that's Zion Turner and Del Rio Wilson. Um, you know, you highlighted it a little bit. It was like the reason that they gave JMU such a scare, for example, was because of how efficiently they ran the ball in that game. It was not due to the plays that he really made. yeah,
Speaker: Same thing with, like, in the loss to Coastal, threw for 153 yards. I mean, you're you're getting beat by 17 points. Like, there's no reason why. It's kind of the same thing as South Alabama and Bishop Davenport. It's like, you guys aren't a good weren't a good football team. Why were you scared to uncork it? And I guess it's, like, the turnover issues that really bit them at the end of last year. But at a certain point, you've got to kind of turn it loose and just...
Speaker: we we're going to lose either way. Like we need to, unless we're just padding stats or protecting someone's rate T to INT ratio, like we have to just throw the ball down the field and and hope that something good happens.
Speaker: um So yeah, like I said, behind him is still Zion Turner, ah who was incoming from UConn last year as a transfer, ah who played sparingly ah in games like against UGA and ah like I said, against Southern. I'm sure he, ah ah you know, appeared in some other games as well.
Speaker: um They're going to be led by him, Del Rio Wilson, presumably. And then in the running game department, you've got Joe Sean Barbie, who's the the returning you know assumed starter, at least by Phil Steele's measure, ah who who is a senior, appeared in nine games last year, had 249 yards rushing.
Speaker: ah he was fourth on the team in rushing behind Carlos Del Rio Wilson, Antoine Roberts, and Michael Allen. So Barbie is being elevated. um Yeah, I think the problem, too, at the end of last year was because teams found out like they're not going to try to push the ball, the running game dried up, too.
Speaker: like It went from, okay, we're throwing the ball well enough to keep the running game in check or like keep it moving, and once once the efficiency went out the window, it felt like the trust in...
Speaker: Del Rio Wilson's decision-making throwing the ball went out the window too, and then they couldn't run the ball. And then it was like, oh, well, the offense is cooked at that point. so yeah ah they They brought in they brought in ah some guys to kind of compete with Barbie because Barbie, mind you, ah as the highest returning rusher, at least as a running back,
Speaker: He only had two games of more than 10 carries. I mean, he he was very clearly like third, fourth fiddle in this offense. ah He had that game against App. I don't know if you remember. remember He ripped off like 10 carries for 100 yards.
Speaker: um yeah And even if you play my favorite game, take away his longest. His longest rush was like 20. I was looking back at that game. it was like 24, 25 yards. um So it's not like that was nine carries for 17 plus an 80 yarder.
Speaker: um He was doing good work in that game. They add Judah Price from West Virginia. They've added a ton of West Virginia and North Carolina guys if you go through this roster.
Speaker: West Virginia I get. um I don't know what's going on with Chapel Bill ah and Tony Gibson if there's something there. that I don't know about, but they've added a ton NC.
Speaker: Gibson probably tried to recruit some of these guys when he was at NC State or something. Oh, that's right. He's from NC State. I completely blanked on that. The West Virginia made sense to me, but I hear what you're saying. yeah So he's probably got some like existing relationships still left over from when he was doing the recruiting for them.
Speaker: Yeah. So so he had Judah Price from West Virginia. you also get Josiah McLaurin. who is at Maryland, played seven games last year. um Phil Steele and we listened, or I listened to a little bit of the, um this is also our first episode recording after Sunbelt Media Days.
Speaker: um they They sounded pretty confident in having replaced some talent. um We obviously saw between Roberts al and Allen a willingness to really split those carries very equitably.
Speaker: This is not a team where you have the Rasheen Ali, 1400 yard guy here. Talon Laybourne, like those types of guys. That was a pull from from left field. Yeah, that that that's a trivia name for sure.
Speaker: um i I don't know. i they They seem pretty confident, and we've we've talked about this through every preview. It's hard to really project when you're looking at guys who did not play, guys who were like former three-and-a-half-star guys who didn't pan out at P5 or didn't get the tick.
Speaker: um i It sounds like there's going to be enough quality to make up those 900 yards that you're missing between Roberts and Allen. yeah However, as you indicated, that's not really the problem here. We don't, we don't anyone, any combination of two or three quality running backs, good enough running backs can make up that yardage. It's, can you take,
Speaker: that burden off of Del Rio Wilson, who ran the ball. Granted, this includes sacks, but ran the, and he didn't take a bunch of those, ran the ball 160 times last year. that that That's obscene for a quarterback. And an offense that, frankly, like this is not the old Dominion offense where it was, you know, ah Georgia Tech Jr., where they are just running quarterback blasts.
Speaker: um with Colton Joseph. like This was, by all intents and purposes, an offense that felt fairly modern, felt fairly buck standard as far as pass-run ratios. So you have to take that burden off.
Speaker: And if that means at having three quality guys, three guys, Roberts, Allen, plus, obviously not Roberts and Allen, but having Barbie plus the two transfers or Barbie plus you know two guys coming up, you need a third guy if you're going to go with these AD carry guys.
Speaker: Yeah. um Yeah, that's fair to say. I mean, you get... So, transitioning to the pass catchers, Demarcus Lacy was your you know leading receiver last year. He's gone.
Speaker: um You know, you do get DeAndre Tamberez, Toby Payne at the tight end spot, who was a first-team all-sunbelt selection. Adrian Norton is another receiver in the mix. And then they've got this... ah Zavion Turner Bradshaw, who played in all 12 games last year, but has been now elevated with the departure of Lacey, who I didn't even realize, Lacey was like the sixth leading rusher on the team to the wide receiver spot. He took almost 20 carries last year, in addition to having 65 catches for 700 yards.
Speaker: This is kind of similar to what we've seen from other teams that have their main pass catcher, South Alabama, leave, you know, notably, where it's like, you know, we've talked about Georgia Southern, South Alabama, like these teams where guys have been easily the number one and now they have to find out either do we have to replace them in the aggregate or are we going to have somebody step up and do the exact same thing? These numbers aren't like gaudy. So like Tamarez or Norton or...
Speaker: Turner Bradshaw could step up and get 700 yards this year. um I think the the question is, are they going to get the depth of target? um Because yeah again, it's like the leading receiver had 65 catches, you know, 769 yards last year. And it's like,
Speaker: okay, that's good, but also like there were guys that had 1,000-plus. So it's just going to be interesting to see like how this offense runs. like Are they going back to doing the thing they did last year where it's like very dink and dunk, and then we just run the ball, and we try to play defense? I mean, it didn't didn't go overly well last year, but that was sort of the the thought process. Yeah.
Speaker: With all the hype that Del Rio Wilson's getting from like the Sunbelt Conference like as far as preseason awards and stuff, like I don't know. i have high he He's going to really have to step up and like earn that because i didn't see I didn't see consistency, especially in the back half of the season last year, that made me feel like, okay, good. like we They have a guy that they feel good about, and he's going to be starting all 12 games next year. It felt like very up and down.
Speaker: Yeah, I mean, teams started to kind of figure out the formula. And i i don't know. It's obviously chicken or the egg. Is it defense or is it finding some something else that also works?
Speaker: My take on this is you're going to need the defense to step up, and we'll talk about that in a second. If you want to elevate from this win level to fringy bowl game level, six seven bowl game fringy bowl game level But then if you want to elevate from there, that's when you want to start competing with an old dominion with a James Madison, um give yourself a chance for the conference title game. That's where finding those other offensive pieces is going to come into play. If the defense shows up, it doesn't matter.
Speaker: it does It doesn't. We've seen that at Arkansas state, right? It doesn't really matter. But ah if, if the defense takes a step forward You need these other pieces to actually contribute else you're going to be stuck in the fringe bowl game.
Speaker: yeah Talk about the offensive line real quick. ah This is a group that was one of the best in the conference last year. They lose three starters, but you do bring back Tarek Montgomery, who started. um he kind of flipped between both tackle spots.
Speaker: ah through 11 starts last year, and then Jalen Slappy, who was third-team Sunbelt conference, all Sunbelt last year. um He's supposed to be the anchor. Phil Steele and a couple other folks as well, I think they were um ah in the preseason, all preseason team, um probably the best returning offensive lineman in the conference.
Speaker: um also an all-name team guy. ah It's just going to be how how do we um fill those spots. And as we're seeing, teams are willing to go FCS, D2, Juco for the skill positions, but at the offensive line, it is still Power 5 rejects, guys who did not play.
Speaker: um Xavier Bosley, anticipated starter at right tackle, 13 games at West Virginia. um Robbie Martin, two games last year at West Virginia at left guard center. Andrew Dudley, one game last year, but he did so here at Marshall.
Speaker: So they're they're they're bringing back or bringing in guys with pedigree, but not necessarily experience and I think we find out this year whether that works or not, whether that is the correct formula, because we found out with Old Dominion last year that, you know what, you really can dip down into those lower levels for some of these skilled position guys, um even with... um
Speaker: Shoot, Samari Collier, right, was previously a jeke was originally a Juco guy. I know he came by way of Louisiana, but was originally a Juco guy. so some of yeah But we're we're yet to see that, or we're yet to see the trend that way with the offensive line.
Speaker: so And I think we find out this year, because how many times, and we're going to do this for the other half of previews that we haven't done, three new starters, ah all guys that came from, you know, the seventh place Big Ten team, the ninth place, you know, ACC team.
Speaker: That's what these offensive lines are built from now. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we we kind of talked about it with Aikman on the App State episode about offensive line development. And,
Speaker: Yeah, I mean, i I still think that, you know, i you've said that this is the opinion of the pod, but, like, game action matters. Like, whether you're seeing, like, live reps or not does matter. I mean, it's important because you can't buy that experience. Like, you can't you can try your hardest to, like, simulate it in practice, but until you step on the field, like on Saturday, it's it's it's all practice. Like, nobody's trying to kill you on the defensive side of the ball the way that they are on Saturday. So it's like...
Speaker: Yeah, it's it'll be interesting to see. you know we I think we talked about, who was it? South Alabama also had a red shirt freshman ah playing center starting for them. So that's going to be another interesting development too because we talked about blitz pickups, calling out like assignments. you know i don't know I don't know at this level if it's the center or the quarterback's job to like identify the Mike linebacker, but if that's the center's job and Del Rio Wilson doesn't have to do it, like that's another thing that you have to kind of keep up with. so yeah i mean It'll be interesting to see. like They definitely have pieces that I like that I think that they could be, again, one of the better offensive lines. It's just how do those guys gel outside of Montgomery and Slappy. So
Speaker: so Flitting over to the defensive side of the ball, um they were run-of-the-mill Sunbelt defense last year um in that they allowed 30-plus points, ah over 400 yards per game allowed.
Speaker: ah Notably, they were really bad through the air yardage-wise. They gave up 262 yards per game. Last year, there were guys, I mean, I've made this joke a lot, but there are entire quarterbacks that didn't average 260 yards a game last year. There were guys that were sub 200 all last year. So that would have made, if you had just taken the the team that faced them, they, and the every quarterback that just faced Marshall, you would have had easily one of the better quarterbacks in the entire conference.
Speaker: Um, yeah. They did get to the quarterback pretty well. 29 sacks as a team. I think this is what the first team we've talked about that had north of 25 sacks last year. um So they've they've done well in that department. I think...
Speaker: Let's see, losing... Who was it? Boogie Trotter? that That's huge. that Yeah. It's going to be massive to see like how they replace him at corner. I don't know. it's It's tough because on one hand, it's like he's just... How often do you see a defensive back as your tackles leader for one?
Speaker: And then it makes you question... It means the people, the the front seven's not doing their job or doing anything. So, you know, i Losing him ah is obviously a big hit. You also lose Cam Smith, Karen Martin. um Something interesting from a high level on the defense is they didn't bring in a bunch of guys. They promoted from within for most of this defense, which is interesting when you consider that last year was –
Speaker: a completely fresh defense. We talked about, like, they they brought in 75 new players last year. um i mean, that's that's an entire roster. So some of those guys were clearly brought in with the intention of next year.
Speaker: And as you look down this list of starters, anticipated starters, it is all juniors and seniors. You've got one sophomore that Phil Steele projects starting, Chamura, a sophomore defensive tackle.
Speaker: He played 10 games, four tackles here last year, but the rest, junior, seniors. So this was clearly with intent, ah which I think... Appears wise, it appears to have some foresight, ah which from a roster building perspective is more than you can say about some of the other teams in the conference that feel a little short sighted. We're bringing in win now seniors when we are clearly only going to win seven games this year.
Speaker: um
Speaker: I don't know. i Because these guys were already here, because these guys didn't start last year, there's minimal film, there's minimal tape, there's minimal expectation. There's an argument to be made that you can only go up from here, but they have to go up. They have to go up.
Speaker: Yeah. Because that's the only direction for them to go. Yeah, I mean, letting letting opposing quarterbacks throw for almost 300 yards a game against you is not going to win you many games. I mean, unless you're just... You know, the the one thing that they did do well besides getting to the quarterback was forcing turnovers, which is how how they beat Old Dominion, was just forcing multiple turn turnovers. And so that is...
Speaker: That is a skill, but a lot of times those turnovers are luck, and those are not things that you can bank on like moving forward. like You can't look and go, okay, we're going to pick off 22 passes or something next year. like There's just no way there's no way to determine that. So it's just...
Speaker: Again, it's it's like they're going to have to continue getting after the quarterback. um They run this 3-3-5 defense, which has been like a Tony Gibson hallmark. ah Your defensive end is Brayden Ward, a junior. you know you You were talking about all the upperclassmen that are starting for them now.
Speaker: Brayden Ward, your defensive end. McAleen Warren, your nose guard. Yeah. Both of these guys showed up in six-plus games last year for you. Cam Chimura, that sophomore you talked about.
Speaker: um And then at the linebacker spots, you've got Kelvin McBride, ah who is an NC State transfer. So he's probably got that existing relationship with with Gibson from there. Kelvin McBride, ah yeah. And then Javay McGilmore, one of their big returning starters, fourth-team all-sunbelt.
Speaker: um had 63 tackles at the the linebacker spot for them. And Jalen Marshall, that's your front seven. he ah Marshall appeared in four games, had only had five tackles. So, yeah, the the front seven has to be better. you know they they They were good at getting after the the passer, but if the guy that they were facing had time to throw, they were getting shredded, even with Boogie Trotter back there. That's that's kind of what I'm saying is like,
Speaker: If you take a ah secondary that wasn't really that good and you remove the best player, what happens then? like Because it becomes like, okay, is it going to get worse? Is it going to improve? like That's going to be the the big key for them is like can they stop opposing quarterbacks from just racking up yards on them? Yeah. ah the Their other returning starter, um well, they're two...
Speaker: other returning starters outside of uh gilmore are josh pierre louis and uh daytuan smith who do both play on the back end pierre louis is like a nickel tweener guy ah smith is more of like a very true safety type um although in these like three three five stuff the safeties are very linebackery as well um i it's tough man and like you talked about the turnovers it is a lot of luck. Bo Trotter had five interceptions last year. Like, no, no one's doing that across the country. Like that's not happening.
Speaker: Um, and so like, you can't, you take away those five, winners let's let's say Bo Trotter still making, leading the team in tackles, um, still breaking up passes.
Speaker: he He did a little bit in pass rush run support type stuff. Very, not a ton. He was more of a coverage guy, but, how this defense should have been even worse because you, you're not supposed to have a five interception guy and you're not going to this year.
Speaker: ah So it's like, I don't know. I don't have a ton to like really, really say and dig into because these guys are mostly unproven, so it's hard to form a strong opinion one way or the other.
Speaker: um But I think, I mean, once once we find out, it will be apparent. yeah Because the performance last year was so stark, And obviously we'll talk about schedule.
Speaker: They have an interesting start to the season where we might not really get a true litmus test of their um defense. Like we might not really have a great read of the defense until after their bye week because of how the the schedule plays out.
Speaker: um But if if it's as bad as it was last year, we'll know what we'll know very, very quickly. Yeah, certainly. um So let's go ahead and and break into the schedule here ah that you talked about a little bit. So you've got, you start out at Penn State. um Penn State is going to be interesting because I have not really ever been sold on their new head coach. Like I thought he was fine, but I thought he he got a lot of love in the media for just kind of fielding
Speaker: eight and five Iowa state teams. And I was kind of like, what, why are we doing, why are we talking him up? Like, I know it's Iowa state's not a football powerhouse, but like, It's not like he did like a job that like Bob Chesney did last year where they went 12-0 and went to the playoff. and like all that so he was like They were like firmly in the Outback Bowl every year. And I was like, what we're talking this guy up like he's the greatest thing since sliced bread? like i don't he Is he that much better than James Franklin, really? like i Probably not. I can see Penn State really stumbling out of the gate. And I don't know what their season, how their schedule shapes up. But it's like, you tell me Penn State
Speaker: Again, it depends a lot on the defense here. Marshall's in this game. That wouldn't shock me a ton, not necessarily by virtue of Marshall, but by virtue of like, it would be the most Penn State thing but to really, really stumble out of these first couple weeks under that gamble. And even lose like a big upset. Like I could just see...
Speaker: I could see them getting upset by somebody like a Marshall or whoever they play like early in their season. And then people are already like, I don't know if we, i don't know if we hired the right guy after we like cut Franklin loose. Like we'll see. So I, I could definitely see them being in this game. Like I don't, I don't, I don't know. Marshall temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin. You're telling me they went all four of those games.
Speaker: Probably not Wisconsin, i would say. Probably not Wisconsin. Colton Joseph at Wisconsin. so Colton Joseph just striking fear into the hearts of Penn State. um But yeah, I mean, Marshall has upset big P5s before, so you know what's what's to say they don't do it again? Like I said, I've i've never been sold on Penn State's, was his name, Campbell?
Speaker: It's Matt Campbell, isn't it? Yeah, like I've never been sold on him. like I think he's been like a fine coach, but like let me Let me ask you this real quick and then we'll move on. Yeah. What did he accomplish when he had Brock Purdy and Brees Hall on the same team?
Speaker: Nothing? Oh, thanks. and So if you have two guys who are like a starting quarterback in the NFL and probably like one of the 12 best, I would say, yeah and then like a running back that's really good, but he's stranded and Jets Island where it's just like cursed, you're like...
Speaker: If I can't win with these guys who go on to the pro level and like what's what's going to happen when I get to Penn State and now I'm recruiting with the Michigans of the world and stuff. Folks were talking about him like he was doing what Signetti was doing at Indiana.
Speaker: And it's like, no, there's a clear tier gap here. And he's still probably overperforming at Iowa State and probably deserve to move on. But it's like... to the blue blood of Penn State feels a little aggressive.
Speaker: But they were they were determined to get Franklin out of there. so and And I think, didn't they wait long in the cycle or something? So they were like out of out of options. um All right. So then week two, you play at home against Middle Tennessee. They are typically not a good football team. I could definitely see them getting a win there.
Speaker: September 19th, you play at Missouri State. ah This was one of Marshall's losses last year, was 21-20 loss to Missouri State that, frankly, like we were having a hard time figuring out like how they even lost, like calculating it. um Missouri state is starting over. Their head coach is now coastal Carolina's head coach. So I don't even know who they hired. So I could definitely see them picking up a road win there.
Speaker: And then you come back on the 26th, you went at home against Gardner web, who presumably who's an FCS school. And then, then is when like the meat of the schedule comes along. Like I know you said that we won't know about their defense totally until the bi-week. Well, you better be ready for October 3rd when you travel to James Madison,
Speaker: Um, because they will, they will be ready and they know that last year you almost beat them. So they're going to be, they're not going to be taking you lightly, presumably like if James Madison, even if James Madison isn't that killer level, like if they're still an eight, nine win team, they're still going to be a tough team to beat regardless. Like they don't have to be this insane, like buzz saw that they were like last year and then sign any second year. Like they can definitely still give you trouble.
Speaker: um ah Two notes real quick to the Middle Tennessee game. Obviously won that game. Remember, though, um they were trailing Marshall was for like three quarters of that game and had to to really storm back ah late in that one. So they had some trouble. It wasn't the 42-28 cakewalk that you saw there. And then to the James Madison, ah since both teams have joined the Sun Belt, home team 0-4 the series.
Speaker: I don't think that holds. I don't think it holds because maybe they catch them in, in like Billy Napier's first season. Like, I don't, I don't know, but like you're going back to like, you know, if we're going to use this as any sort of precedent, this one, like weird betting angle that they love, right.
Speaker: it You have to go two years back to find the last time Marshall host or they played at James Madison ah when Marshall, and that was just such a different, mark I mean, we are, yeah, that's,
Speaker: That's Braylon Braxton. That was that that was that crazy 24-point second-half comeback, right? Which they've had a bunch of recently, too. Yeah, that vaulted them into the... Because if they had lost, ah they would have not have made the Sunbelt title game as the East winner. So they they had to have that. Yeah, that's ah that's a totally different team. um than what we see here. um I don't think you have any, what was it, Mike Greens on this team where you're going to 22 sacks out of one guy or whatever it was. like You've got to make that up some other way. um And then October 10th, they face Coastal at home.
Speaker: I'm still leery about Coastal. i don't I don't really know what to expect out of them in Ryan Beard's first season. um I can tentatively pretty much put that up as a win for Marshall. Like, I...
Speaker: Coastal's going have to show me something this year because I haven't believed in them since Grayson McCall moved on. And so i i've that has come back you know winning from a winning strategy for me. So October 17th, you get the bye week, much needed smack dab in the middle of your schedule. So that's good. And then you come back ah the 20th on a Tuesday.
Speaker: and face South Alabama. South Alabama, again, is not not a very good team on paper. They weren't a good team last year. i feel pretty confident they'll beat South Alabama. um At Old Dominion, that's going to be a really another really tough test. i So I'll go ahead and, I guess, spoil it. I think I have Marshall at like seven or eight wins this year, but I have Old Dominion at the exact same number.
Speaker: So this could be a total like coin flip for me. of a game. Yeah, there's eight here that I'm staring at. Middle Tennessee, Gardner-Webb Coastal, probably Missouri State.
Speaker: That's four before the bye. and then Georgia State, ULM is two. South Alabama. alaba in South Alabama, that's seven. And it's like you have a chance in Georgia Southern. You are very much have a chance against Georgia Southern. You very much have a chance against App State.
Speaker: Um, there's a world we talked about, like the Penn State potential, a though for conference stuff, that doesn't matter. Um, there's a chance Old Dominion is a little flat, flatter than they were last year post Colton Joseph. Quinn Heineckle's like, it seems like everyone's kind of ignoring the fact that Colton Joseph left. I know there was a lot to like and a lot.
Speaker: of promise shown from some of the other things, ah Ricky, a rejuvenated ah hope and Ricky Ronnie's kind of vision for the program. I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that you're losing Colton Joseph and just have to go to Quinn Hynical, who was good, but not Colton Joseph.
Speaker: Especially not as a, as a passer. Spoiler for the ODU episode, but he's not, he's not what Colton Joseph was as a passer. So like, I'm going to be interested, especially with old dominion here.
Speaker: Because Hennacle or whatever is not the level of passer, what do they do if they get behind in games? Because he likes to run. like He is primarily a scrambler type. And it's like, okay, but if you get down 14 with five minutes left in the fourth, like we can't be running at every single play. like we We need to move down the field quickly. So like he's got to really progress as a passer for me to be like,
Speaker: I mean, I think I have Marshall tied for second in the East with Old Dominion. Like, I just, i I could see Old Dominion taking a ah a little bit of a step back without Joseph, and I could see Marshall making progress, especially with, like, how easy this schedule is with, like, your West Division opponents are ULM and South Alabama.
Speaker: Like, could you could that have drawn any better for for them? and And then they still get the the app state who knows Georgia state coastal with a new head coach. Like, yeah, like you, you have to play old dominion and James Madison, but those are kind of the only two real challenges I would say. And maybe Georgia Southern at home. Cause they played better at home than on the road. But like,
Speaker: That's an 8-4 team, I think, if if I'm looking at it today. I think record-wise, they take a big step forward. um yeah yeah I'm agree with you, but from a matter of like
Speaker: To the point kind of that we had at the top, does record indicate talent? Also, another point, who cares if record indicates talent? Because record is at ultimately... um I had this conversation, and I'm bringing this up because someone commented on one of our episodes, pumped about the World Cup coverage we were providing.
Speaker: um This is how I was feeling about Argentina throughout much of the World Cup is like, does it matter that they're winning these games in really ugly ways? if they're winning all these games and now obviously they're going to the final. I don't know.
Speaker: um like, I think Marshall might be in a similar boat where it's like, it's not going to be super pretty. It's not going to be good enough for them to be perceived as one of like the G six is premier, even if they are say second best in the East. And, you know, as we talked have said before, that might be good enough for second best in the conference, ah the way things shake out in the West.
Speaker: um I don't think that they become one of like the premier G6s off of that, but in a weekend conference, you have the quarterback.
Speaker: you hope You expect the defense to outperform last season because, again, like if you don't, I mean, you you've got a first-year defensive coordinator. Not first year, obviously, but first year of his tenure here. um Like, he's out the door if you if you can't fix it this year. Well, especially, too, like, it let's say the defense is still at the number that it was last year. Like, let's say...
Speaker: You play better as a unit. The turnover numbers come down. um The yardage comes down a little bit, but you're still just sitting at like 30 points per game a allowed. Like the offense is going to have to to take like a major step for you to get to seven, eight wins if that happens because it's like,
Speaker: they're going to to score 37, 38 points a game if the defense stays at the level it was at last year. And it was like a very feast or famine level defense where it was like, we're either... For example, the game that they beat Old Dominion by 24, huge upset.
Speaker: um Let me see. Old Dominion was a 14-point favorite heading into that one. They won the turnover battle plus five. So like... plus five so like There's not going to be a ton of games on your schedule where that happens. So you need to like be more solid fundamentally to make up for the fact that like presumably the turnovers going to come down, especially without like Boogie tro Trotter out there. right um i mean So that has to happen for them to get to eight wins. like They can't keep playing the same level. That's what I was saying at kind of the top. like If they want to be...
Speaker: firmly the third best team in the East, which I think they definitely can, defense has to start showing up. Defense, and again, like some of these numbers, I think you can make an argument, are inflated from that season opener against Georgia.
Speaker: But then it's like, you know what? Your defense performed worse against Texas State than it did against Georgia. And again, Texas State was also an offensive buzzsaw. um But your offense was, or your defense was looking as poor against Louisiana.
Speaker: as it was against Georgia. Yeah, you gave up almost six yards to carry against Louisiana, and Louisiana ran for 264 yards on a team that, like I said, had bottom one offensive line in the conference. Like that, you know, Coastal, I know, a little bit of an outlier just because of how they ran with Samari Collier. You gave up 214 rushing yards in that game as well in a game that you lost by 17. So...
Speaker: and And Collier only had to throw 21 passes that whole game and only completed eight of them. And they won by three scores. The floor of this team is going to be defined by the the change year over year by the defense.
Speaker: Its ceiling, I think, is going to be defined by the offense. it like If you're coming back and scoring 30 points a game or more, um i like you you can really... punch above your weight, but the very bottom floor, if we're going to progress past five wins into like bulk contention where this team really ought to be from a brand perspective, from ah like ah a prestige perspective,
Speaker: you defense. that that That's going to be the key indicator. And like I said, when you start with like Penn State, MTSU, Missouri State, Gardner, Webb, it's going to be hard to get a real read on that defense because you're playing such a weird palette of teams here.
Speaker: um Then you get James Madison and like like We don't really think that this is going to be the James Madison that we've seen last year with like Alonzo Barnett and Wayne Knight, although Wayne Knight's coming back, isn't he? um yeah you So it's not going to be like that.
Speaker: But that again, I'm willing to give a defense a pass if they don't look at their best. And then again, it's like Coastal Carolina. It's like Coastal Carolina. i I expect, and again, we saw it last year wasn't necessarily the case. I expect most competent defenses to handle Coastal Carolina this year with relative ease.
Speaker: So we're going to be through October 10th, and it's like, I don't know if you're going to have had a fair evaluation yet. um And again, maybe... it's really um It's really that stretch, I think, toward the end of the season where it's like Old Dominion on Halloween, Georgia Southern the week after that, and then App State at home, I think is going to be the real litmus test about where this team is.
Speaker: I just... the The other thing that makes me weary is just how they backslid at the end of last year. like it it wasn't Like, it wasn't like they had these, like, and I don't know, Del Rio Wilson might have been banged up at the end of last year. Like, I i don't know.
Speaker: But to have your interception, like, total, like, skyrocket in the last six games, you finish the season one and four, ah you know, you have one win after that Texas State double overtime game.
Speaker: and and it was over Georgia State by 12 points. I mean, like, that doesn't that doesn't fill me with, like, a lot of confidence. So, like, I just – I hope they can keep it together for a full season, and and the late-season fade doesn't become, like, ah like a hallmark of of this team under Tony Gibson. I'm sure this is biased because we've been doing these previews kind of in reverse order of standings, and so this is going to be biased towards the worst teams.
Speaker: but who was winning games last late last year? Because every team we've talked about, hey yeah it's been, but oh, this team, you know, started really good, had a, had an interesting non-conference slate and then lost four of their last five.
Speaker: Lost six of their last Troy, Troy, and you. the team i mean, the teams that, shocking, ah you know, breaking news, news 11, the teams that finished best in the conference were winning games late last year. I hate to, hate to break it to to you. Uh,
Speaker: Old Dominion was okay at the end of last year. I mean, they only, the only games they lost were to Marshall, which was a huge upset, but then j ah JMU and Indiana were their three losses. So it was like, they were good at the end of last year. They just got tripped up two weeks in a row and basically they were out of the the title game race at that point ah because they needed JMU to lose three and JMU didn't lose until they played Oregon. So,
Speaker: so Yeah, we'll we'll have to see how this all pans out for Marshall. There is a lot of projection and things that need to improve. it it's really, for me, the defensive points per game like have to go down like by and large. Because if you look at 2024 when they were really successful, they were only allowing 23 points a game. And like that was the hallmark. Other than Braylon Braxton, like that was the hallmark of that team was that they they had Mike Green, who was a sack machine, and you weren't giving up a ton of...
Speaker: points, a ton of passing yards, you know, stuff like that. Like they even had a worse rush defense in 2024 than they did last year, just because teams were throwing on them and it, they were 10 and three.
Speaker: So it was like, i don't know. <unk> We'll see how quickly things change. Yep. All right. Let everybody know where they can find you on socials and I'll do the same and then we'll get out of here. Yeah. I'm on Twitter at Zeke Palermo, Z-E-K-E-P-A-L-E-R-M-O.
Speaker: And then as always, you can find the show on X and tick tock at warm weather fans. You can find me on X at watch the stone. We will be back later this week with a guest for our Arkansas state preview. Zeke is looking forward to that because he needs his priors evaluated and validated. This has been warm weather fans.
