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Under the Banyan Tree - Things you probably didn’t know about Asian markets
34 Plays1 year ago
Herald van der Linde and Fred Neumann dissect several surprising facts, figures and market observations unearthed by our Asia Equity Strategy team. Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/61/gPDqkkt Stay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.
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Transcript
Introduction to Asian Equity Markets
00:00:02
Speaker
Welcome to HSBC Global Viewpoint, the podcast series that brings together business leaders and industry experts to explore the latest global insights, trends, and opportunities.
00:00:13
Speaker
Make sure you're subscribed to stay up to date with new episodes.
00:00:16
Speaker
Thanks for listening.
00:00:17
Speaker
And now onto today's show.
00:00:24
Speaker
This is a podcast from HSBC Global Research, available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
00:00:30
Speaker
However you're listening, analyst notifications, disclosures and disclaimers must be viewed on the link attached to your media player.
00:00:46
Speaker
Hello from Hong Kong and welcome to Under the Banyan Tree.
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I'm Fred Newman, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC.
00:00:52
Speaker
And I'm Harold Vindelina, Head of Asian Equity Strategy.
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Speaker
Good to have you with us.
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Speaker
We're going to have some fun on the podcast today, bringing you some quirky facts and figures on Asian equity markets.
00:01:01
Speaker
And of course, we'll do what we do best, ramble on around those facts, putting Asian markets and economics in context.
00:01:08
Speaker
Indeed, Harold, you
Shenzhen's Liquidity Dominance
00:01:09
Speaker
and your team have been gathering these fascinating stats together, and I have to say some of them really took me by surprise as I went through your latest Flying Dutchman report.
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Hopefully, our audience will be equally as surprised.
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Speaker
So let's dive right in.
00:01:23
Speaker
From HSBC Global Research, you're listening to Under the Banyan Tree.
00:01:34
Speaker
So Harold, very excited to see the latest installment of your Flying Dutchman series.
00:01:39
Speaker
I think you've been producing this for well over a decade now.
00:01:42
Speaker
Yeah, something like maybe 15 years or so.
00:01:45
Speaker
Exactly.
00:01:45
Speaker
Of course, it's one of the flagship publications that you put out on Asian equity strategy.
00:01:50
Speaker
And the latest one caught my eye because it has some interesting facts in it.
00:01:54
Speaker
That is a collection of very interesting statistics that you put together.
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Speaker
And I think we wanted to go through some of these in the course of this podcast.
00:02:05
Speaker
Good idea.
00:02:06
Speaker
The first one that struck me is you mentioned that Shenzhen is the most liquid stock market in the world.
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Speaker
I always think of the New York Stock Exchange being potentially the most liquid.
00:02:18
Speaker
But you're saying, no, no, it's actually a Chinese stock market that's more liquid.
00:02:22
Speaker
Yeah, that's right.
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Speaker
So there's an enormous amount of trading going on in the Chinese stock markets.
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Remember, you've got different Chinese stock markets.
00:02:28
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Onshore, you have Shanghai and Shenzhen.
00:02:31
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The way we look at liquidity is not just the amount of money that's being traded.
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The U.S. is really big in that as well.
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Speaker
But it's also relative to the size of these markets.
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Speaker
Now, you have, of course, some really small markets in the world that if you trade a little bit, then suddenly it looks like it's a lot of trading going on relative to the size of these markets.
00:02:49
Speaker
We ignore these, right?
00:02:50
Speaker
But if you look at Shenzhen, the whole market is being bought and sold four times a year.
00:02:57
Speaker
That is just incredible, right?
00:02:59
Speaker
All companies,
US Market Size vs. Chinese Liquidity
00:03:01
Speaker
all of these companies are being bought and sold four times a year.
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Speaker
Every quarter, the whole market turns over.
00:03:07
Speaker
Why is that the case in China?
00:03:09
Speaker
Because Shanghai, to be honest, is also extremely liquid.
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Speaker
This is a large retail market.
00:03:15
Speaker
Around the world, most markets, we have a lot of institutional investors in the US as well.
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Pension funds who buy and just sit on it and clip the dividends and that's how they invest.
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Speaker
In China, that is much less so the case.
00:03:28
Speaker
The vast majority are retail investors and literally people who sit in brokerage houses and buy and sell during the day.
00:03:36
Speaker
Now, another statistic you mentioned, however, is that actually the U.S. market is still, in terms of company size, quite a bit larger.
00:03:45
Speaker
So we have higher liquidity in space like Shenzhen, but we have also still very large companies trading in the U.S. That is, the market cap is actually much larger.
00:03:55
Speaker
Yeah, so if you look at it, just to give you an interesting stat here, Apple, the Apple stock, the market capitalization of that company, the market value of that company is bigger than ASEAN or Taiwan or Korea.
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Speaker
That is just amazing, right?
00:04:09
Speaker
So some of our countries.
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Speaker
So one, you're saying one company is larger than the stock markets?
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One company in the US than the whole of these markets.
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So the U.S. market is still extremely big.
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And that is not just the stock markets, the bond market as well.
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And that's why you and I, we always talk about U.S. bond yields and the dollar, because small movements in that, the amount of dollars that that implies is just massive for our markets.
00:04:32
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And therefore,
Market Dynamics Shifts in Indonesia
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what happens in the U.S. still dominates financial markets in Asia to a large extent as well.
00:04:38
Speaker
Now, Apple might be an extreme example, right?
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Speaker
It's a very iconic big company.
00:04:44
Speaker
But there are other big companies in the U.S. as well, right?
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It's not just about Apple.
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Presumably some of the other companies also exceed then the size of the stock markets.
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Absolutely.
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Apple is one of the biggest ones, but there's a few other ones as well, right?
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Very often people talk about the Magnificent Sevens or these sort of things.
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But that would be the same for those stocks.
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Absolutely.
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They dominate size globally.
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Now, the third fact that caught my eye here that you mentioned is really looking at relative market caps within Asia.
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And you mentioned that some of the Indonesian companies actually come close to some of the Chinese companies, which we tend to think of as being very, very large.
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So what's the fact that stuck out for you here?
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Yeah, so the top five Chinese property companies, the size of these companies together,
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is now smaller than the largest Indonesian bank.
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This tells me two things.
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First of all, they were probably four or five times as big only two years ago.
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So we've seen a massive collapse in the size of these property companies.
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These share prices have really come down a lot.
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That has caused one reason.
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Speaker
But it also shows that the largest Indonesian bank, I used to be a banking analyst in Indonesia in the late 90s,
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Nobody wanted to invest in it.
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They were small.
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People ignored that market at that time.
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Speaker
But now one of these stocks is bigger than the whole property market.
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But if you look at the news flow around the world, you get a lot of news flow on Chinese property and very little on Indonesian banks.
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But market-wise, that should change.
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Indonesia, therefore, has emerged as well as a really serious contender with big companies.
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So that's...
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That's an important fact in that sense.
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Well, that certainly highlights the rise of Indonesia and the big market that's developing there.
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But it also, of course, reflects some of the structural shifts within the Chinese economy.
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You said, you know,
China's EV Market Leadership
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property developers declining.
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But there's another sector that's doing extremely well in China, and that's the auto sector.
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And that's actually your fourth statistic here.
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And that is that some of the Chinese automakers now starting to clip on the heels of some of the big U.S. guys.
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That is correct.
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So the sales numbers of the leading Chinese EV maker, BYD, is now exceeding that sales volume.
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So not the amount of money they make, but the number of cars that they sell.
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And I'm talking specifically about EVs here, not about hybrids and stuff.
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exceeds that of Tesla.
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Now, that might have happened just in one month, but if you look at it on a quarterly basis, it will probably continue to exceed that as we go deeper into 2024.
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What does that tell us is that you and I have spoken about this in the past.
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The Chinese EV market is under pressure.
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There's a lot of companies that moved in there.
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The Chinese are now exporting this to the rest of the world as well.
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They do discover new markets there.
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And here you go.
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They grow in size.
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And that's partially because of the development of that whole EV market.
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Speaker
And you rightly say so.
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This actually illustrates quite nicely that you see one sector property struggling.
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And that is the old Chinese growth model.
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And you see, to a certain extent, a new growth China model emerging out of these debts.
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It's, of course, also something that we follow on the macro side, and that is that China has now become the top global export of cars from virtually nowhere, exceeding Japan, exceeding Germany.
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In terms of volumes, we have to say, not in terms of value.
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But it used to be in the last two years or so that the primary exporters were actually farmed.
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Speaker
foreign companies from China exporting vehicles, Tesla being one of them, BMW, for example.
00:08:26
Speaker
But it's now Chinese companies that become major exporters in their own right.
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Speaker
So that's
Samsung's Influence in Korea
00:08:33
Speaker
still, you see that shift as well.
00:08:34
Speaker
So the whole global auto industry is really shifting.
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Speaker
China is becoming really dominant in that.
00:08:39
Speaker
a prominent player into that.
00:08:41
Speaker
And well, let's see how that goes.
00:08:43
Speaker
And they've really been able to do that, not so much with the internal combustion cars, but really with the EVs, right?
00:08:49
Speaker
That's been the growth area.
00:08:51
Speaker
Well, these are all very fascinating stats.
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Speaker
And I think it's a great time to take a quick break.
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Speaker
And when we come back, we'll look at some of the other stats you put out there related to Korea, for example, and related to India, of course, as well.
00:09:06
Speaker
Good.
00:09:16
Speaker
So, coming back to these fascinating stats you unearthed, Harold, one of them actually relates to Korea, and that is that the Korean equity market is actually dominated by one company.
00:09:30
Speaker
Yeah, so quite a few of Asian stock markets, Korea, Taiwan, actually, Asian markets, I would say, as well, they're dominated by a few companies, but that dominance is really visible in Korea.
00:09:44
Speaker
Now, Samsung is the largest market cap company in Korea.
00:09:48
Speaker
And most people say, oh, Samsung is so dominant in the market.
00:09:51
Speaker
And I forgot exactly what the Samsung electronics company is.
00:09:55
Speaker
I think it's about maybe 25% or maybe close to 30% of the market.
00:09:59
Speaker
But it's part of a larger group.
00:10:00
Speaker
So if you take the other Samsung companies in there, they do shipping and they have all kinds of other businesses, insurances.
00:10:07
Speaker
If you add that to that, it's about 40% of the Korean market, of which a large part of that is, of course, Samsung Electronics.
00:10:15
Speaker
And this is why we often talk about DRAM and semiconductors, because that is one of the key products, of course, they make.
00:10:24
Speaker
Not only do they sell that, but they put it into their smartphones and into their TVs as well.
00:10:29
Speaker
Therefore, the DRAM cycle is of such importance in Korea.
00:10:33
Speaker
But it's amazing that one company can dominate a stock market as much.
00:10:38
Speaker
And the other interesting thing, and it's not a fact that I have here, but if you look at the top 10 players in Korea 20 years ago, they're almost about the same.
00:10:47
Speaker
So these companies are super entrenched.
00:10:50
Speaker
That's not the case in China, where all kinds of new companies are.
00:10:52
Speaker
Entrenched, but very dynamic as well.
00:10:55
Speaker
So they do evolve quite a bit.
00:10:57
Speaker
But I think that stat also reminds me, just looking at it from a macro perspective, that actually the Korean economy, even though it's very large and quite diversified, is still very exposed to the tech cycle.
00:11:09
Speaker
It's semis on the export side.
00:11:11
Speaker
It's consumer electronics, for example, that really affect the volatility of economic activity in Korea.
00:11:20
Speaker
Yeah.
00:11:21
Speaker
With implications for exchange rates.
00:11:23
Speaker
Exchange rates and how the
India's Market Growth
00:11:25
Speaker
central bank thinks about the cycle and so forth.
00:11:27
Speaker
Taiwan has that to a certain extent as well.
00:11:29
Speaker
There you have Taiwan TSMC, the foundry maker, is also very dominant in that particular market.
00:11:37
Speaker
But the funny thing is to a certain extent, as you just highlight,
00:11:40
Speaker
That is also a dynamic company.
00:11:42
Speaker
It's not a large behemoth that just sits there and does nothing.
00:11:46
Speaker
They continue to be at the cutting edge of chip making in the world.
00:11:54
Speaker
And that's of course always a big debate among economists is how you have such large companies that are so dominant.
00:12:02
Speaker
still being dynamic.
00:12:04
Speaker
Why are they not kind of becoming lazy and entrenched?
00:12:08
Speaker
And one of the reasons is that really these companies compete on a global level, that they may not have significant local competitors, but they still need to kind of keep on top of their game to compete against some of the big global players.
00:12:24
Speaker
And that keeps them on their toes.
00:12:25
Speaker
Yeah, and if I therefore look at the Taiwanese stock market, I don't really care what happens with the PMI numbers that come out of Taiwan or what you guys say about the exchange.
00:12:34
Speaker
That's a lot of disrespect to economists.
00:12:37
Speaker
Or interest rates in Taiwan, because that doesn't matter for those particular companies.
00:12:40
Speaker
It matters, of course, for other companies, but...
00:12:42
Speaker
So what matters is what happens in mainland China, Europe and the US because these are global markets.
00:12:49
Speaker
So that's where they sell their products.
00:12:51
Speaker
And that's so for Korea, that's the case for Taiwan, and actually to a large extent for Japan as well.
00:12:56
Speaker
Global cyclical markets.
00:12:57
Speaker
That actually brings us to the next interesting statistic that you unearthed, and that is India.
00:13:03
Speaker
It relates to India.
00:13:04
Speaker
And actually, you say India's stock market is now larger than Korea and Taiwan combined.
00:13:11
Speaker
That is quite a big, big stock market then in India.
00:13:15
Speaker
India is quite an equity story.
00:13:19
Speaker
Over the last 20 years, India has performed very well.
00:13:22
Speaker
In the last eight years, it has gone up in each of these last eight years.
00:13:27
Speaker
That in itself is already quite remarkable as well.
00:13:30
Speaker
So it's eight years of straight gains.
00:13:33
Speaker
It has therefore become bigger.
00:13:34
Speaker
A lot of people complain about valuations.
00:13:36
Speaker
It is a very expensive market.
00:13:38
Speaker
And maybe also rightly so.
00:13:40
Speaker
It's very profitable for the companies.
00:13:42
Speaker
But putting that aside, yes, that means that it has really emerged as a major stock market in Asia.
00:13:48
Speaker
Of course, in India, that gets a lot of attraction.
00:13:50
Speaker
But within Asia, a lot of the news flow very often is Korea, Taiwan.
00:13:56
Speaker
These markets are big, but we shouldn't ignore that those markets are actually quite sizable as well.
00:14:02
Speaker
And it's not just the size of the existing companies.
00:14:04
Speaker
It's also the new money being raised, if I get your statistics right.
00:14:09
Speaker
Yeah, there have been more IPOs in India over the last two years than in the US.
00:14:13
Speaker
A lot of these IPOs are smaller, but it just shows that the stock market's got a lot of feed in.
00:14:18
Speaker
There's a lot of new supply, if you want to put it like that, new companies coming to the market.
00:14:23
Speaker
On the other hand, there's also a lot of people that want to invest in it.
00:14:27
Speaker
Retail participation is really rising.
00:14:30
Speaker
In
Vietnam's Emerging Market Status
00:14:31
Speaker
India, you've got these kind of systematic investment plans, so people put money every month at the end of the month into the stock market through some savings plans.
00:14:39
Speaker
And that means you've got locals buying these companies and companies offering their shares in the market there.
00:14:45
Speaker
So that's a very healthy sort of development.
00:14:47
Speaker
And, of course, the stock market has performed very, very good, has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last two decades.
00:14:53
Speaker
Now, we just discussed Korea and Taiwan, and we mentioned that there are some large companies that really dominate the exchange.
00:15:01
Speaker
Is that the same in India, or do you have a more diversified universe of course?
00:15:06
Speaker
No, it's very different in India.
00:15:08
Speaker
You're right, so Korea, Taiwan, very concentrated, but the two most diversified markets in Asia, Japan, and India, India has got a lot of companies that are fairly sizable, not as big as some of the biggest Chinese companies, let alone the US,
00:15:23
Speaker
But there's quite a few of them.
00:15:25
Speaker
So it's diversified and you get big sectors such as pharma, IT, domestic consumer, the banks, actually construction companies.
00:15:34
Speaker
Therefore, the dynamic of that market is very different as well.
00:15:36
Speaker
It's not just one story that drives it, but maybe 10 different stories.
00:15:39
Speaker
While in Korea, to a certain extent, as I mentioned, you really got to focus on DRAM.
00:15:44
Speaker
Now, the last fact I wanted to pick up here, and you have about 13.
00:15:47
Speaker
We only covered really about half of those.
00:15:51
Speaker
There's more.
00:15:52
Speaker
So anybody who wants more, obviously, you know, get hold of this report here.
00:15:57
Speaker
But the last fact you mentioned is that Vietnam is coming up as a very liquid market.
00:16:03
Speaker
That's right.
00:16:04
Speaker
So Vietnam is still classified as a frontier market.
00:16:07
Speaker
So it's not really part of the global universe of stocks.
00:16:10
Speaker
Frontier is really for niche investors to a large extent.
00:16:14
Speaker
But it has performed well.
00:16:16
Speaker
It has grown well.
00:16:17
Speaker
It's had its own kind of problems as well.
00:16:19
Speaker
I think we spoke about this in this podcast.
00:16:21
Speaker
What happens maybe in property and these sort of things over time.
00:16:24
Speaker
But there's a lot of trading in that market.
00:16:27
Speaker
So Vietnam now trades as much as Indonesia or Singapore.
00:16:32
Speaker
That is
Diversity and Dynamism in Asian Markets
00:16:33
Speaker
quite remarkable for a frontier market.
00:16:36
Speaker
Maybe at some point in time it will be upgraded to an emerging market status.
00:16:40
Speaker
That's the next level before you then go to a developed market status.
00:16:43
Speaker
But irrespective of that, it's a large and liquid market.
00:16:46
Speaker
So what we just mentioned on India, that you've got new companies coming in and that's healthy.
00:16:50
Speaker
We actually see this in the region as well.
00:16:52
Speaker
We've got new countries, new markets coming in.
00:16:54
Speaker
Vietnam has really emerged as an investment destination the last decade.
00:16:58
Speaker
Maybe Bangladesh will be one that emerges over the next decade.
00:17:02
Speaker
We'll see how that works out.
00:17:04
Speaker
But yeah, it means we get more and more companies listed and markets to look at in Asia.
00:17:09
Speaker
So I think what your stats here really bring out is how dynamic Asian markets still are, right?
00:17:14
Speaker
Despite all these headlines we have of economic challenges, there's so much...
00:17:19
Speaker
beneath the surface in terms of shifting investor attention, companies rising and falling.
00:17:26
Speaker
There's still a lot of excitement about the markets.
00:17:29
Speaker
And that has a key implication.
00:17:32
Speaker
Sometimes people say Asian markets haven't performed very well for the last 20 years or 10 years.
00:17:37
Speaker
And you're right.
00:17:38
Speaker
They are right if you put them all together.
00:17:40
Speaker
But there
Personal Plans and Cultural Celebrations
00:17:41
Speaker
is so much diversity, much more so than actually in the US and Europe.
00:17:45
Speaker
that it's almost difficult to say that because India has done very well and Japan has dragged things down.
00:17:52
Speaker
More recently, of course, China.
00:17:53
Speaker
But in China, EVs have done very well, but not the property.
00:17:56
Speaker
So you really, Asia is really a stock market universe, I would say, where you can't just look at the surface, but you really need to dig deeper into these stories.
00:18:05
Speaker
And what way of better making sense of it all or better tracking this than reading on a regular basis The Flying Dutchman?
00:18:12
Speaker
Or listen to this podcast, right?
00:18:24
Speaker
So Harold, in 2023, you climbed a lot of temples across Asia, in Java, South India.
00:18:33
Speaker
What is 2024?
00:18:34
Speaker
More temples in store for you?
00:18:36
Speaker
Funnily enough, yes, Fred.
00:18:38
Speaker
So my Chinese New Year holiday is going to be in Mexico.
00:18:42
Speaker
where I'm going to see Mayan temples, Palenque, Yat-Chilan, Bonampak, all Mayan cities.
00:18:52
Speaker
Kalakmul is one.
00:18:54
Speaker
Some of them are really deep into the jungle.
00:18:55
Speaker
So you have to drive for a day and then have a dirt road and walk for an hour and something like that to really get there.
00:19:00
Speaker
But knowing you, just looking at the temples is not enough.
00:19:03
Speaker
I'm sure there's more preparation that goes into your trip.
00:19:05
Speaker
Yeah, actually.
00:19:06
Speaker
It's something that I wanted to do a couple of years ago, but then COVID delayed that whole process.
00:19:10
Speaker
I was actually going to go with a group of archaeologists who had worked there.
00:19:15
Speaker
You could actually subscribe to that, to the University of Texas in Austin.
00:19:18
Speaker
Now, their time skills doesn't work out now.
00:19:21
Speaker
But I read a book about the mines, but I also thought if you dare, they actually told me, it would be nice if you can read Mayan glyphs.
00:19:28
Speaker
And you've probably seen them at some point in time, maybe in a museum somewhere.
00:19:31
Speaker
They're kind of funky looking sort of glyphs.
00:19:34
Speaker
So I've decided to learn that as well.
00:19:36
Speaker
That sounds more difficult than you think it is.
00:19:39
Speaker
You can't learn in my English, what is your name, Fred, and what are you doing this afternoon?
00:19:43
Speaker
We have no idea how they said that.
00:19:45
Speaker
It's more about, in this and this year, this king was decapitated, or in this and this year, this king invaded this city.
00:19:52
Speaker
So the words of conquering, decapitation, succession, prince, king, and these, if you got that sorted out in dates, you can actually read some of what they call the stila, the kind of
00:20:02
Speaker
stone inscriptions that stand in front of these large Mayan temples.
00:20:07
Speaker
But that's going to be my Chinese New Year holidays in Mexico sweating in the jungle.
00:20:13
Speaker
What are you going to do, Fred, over Chinese New Year?
00:20:15
Speaker
Well, not quite anything as exciting as speaking glyphs, Mayan glyphs, or being on temples in Mexico.
00:20:24
Speaker
But I'll be celebrating a very, very traditional Chinese New Year.
00:20:29
Speaker
Very traditional indeed.
00:20:31
Speaker
In fact, more traditional than most people celebrated in Asia.
00:20:34
Speaker
And that's because I'm heading to Queens, New York to celebrate with my in-laws.
00:20:40
Speaker
And as it often is in expat communities, some of these traditions are preserved much more.
00:20:46
Speaker
So it'll be a very traditional Chinese New Year dinner in Queens, New York for me.
00:20:52
Speaker
So that's a lot of Chinese food and a lot of tea for you then.
00:20:55
Speaker
Yes, and I will be ordering those not in Mayan but in English.
00:21:02
Speaker
So there you have it, folks.
00:21:03
Speaker
Everything you didn't think you needed to know from offbeat stats on Asian markets to Mayan hieroglyphs.
00:21:08
Speaker
It's a never-done moment here on the Banyan Tree.
00:21:10
Speaker
Thanks everybody for joining us.
00:21:12
Speaker
And if you haven't subscribed already, please do so wherever you get your podcast.
00:21:16
Speaker
Our sister podcast, The Macro Brief, is out every Friday as well.
00:21:20
Speaker
So do give a listen to that one too.
00:21:22
Speaker
Take care and all the best till next time.
00:21:42
Speaker
Thank you for joining us at HSBC Global Viewpoint.
00:21:46
Speaker
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00:21:48
Speaker
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