Transcript
Speaker: Welcome in everybody to another episode of Warm Weather Fans, The Sunbelt Podcast. I am your host as always, Brian Stone. Once again joined by Zeke Palermo, who was here last week, and Matt Migas who rejoins the show after being out last week. Boys, how are we doing? How are things? I have a mini little Tangent like a very very small tangent about in the NCAA football game, but until we get to that Zeke How are you and then throw it up to Matt? I'm doing really well I had Chipotle tonight for the first time since the the discourse Over Chipotle serving sizes blew up and at least the one near me seemed to figure it out because it was a damn good meal Bowl a little light on the meat, but they made up for it with the rice ah
Speaker: incredible dinner. They they made amends. Well, they don't get used to it because they just their CEO just left to be the new CEO of Starbucks. So that might not last very long. ah Matt, how are you doing? Oh, my God, Chipotle. Chipotle is my life. Shout out to the minor.
Speaker: Um, no, man, I'm good. Uh, college football it is another day closer. Um, you know, hell when you, when you really think about it, there's some games that are just 10 days away. Uh, which is, which is absolutely insane and, uh, looking forward to to chopping it up about two of the best in the belt tonight.
Speaker: Absolutely. Um, my little thing, I had this happen last night when I was playing the the NCA game. So, uh, the only reason I brought it up is because it literally happened like less than 24 hours ago. I was playing as Georgia Southern against. I want to say JMU and I was up 28, 23 with three seconds to go. And they're quarterback through Hail Mary and beat me like with no time on the clock.
Speaker: And I also found out that in NCAA, at least from what I can tell, there are no coverages made to cover the deep part of the field in that situation. I had to run cover four and I guess one of the receivers just ran between the zones and There it is. I'm telling you, you know, in like the coach suggestion box, like it wasn't in there. And I took two, my last two timeouts to look through every defensive play that I could find. It's at least not in the four to five playbook. Also, there should be a formation in every playbook called prevent. And it's just three down linemen, like seven, eight DBs.
Speaker: And it's got like a deep cover three, you know, some sort of, uh, man zone type deal. I think it's in every, it comes standard in every defensive playbook. Well, then what do you need to do, Brian, is you need to go create your own playbook and put the 11 guys stand at the goal line play. Mm -hmm.
Speaker: this Or I do the old Jets thing where I just send 11 guys at the quarterback and just hope like he just doesn't know what to get there first. Can't block all 11. Am I right? Well, i guess you kind of could in an EA sports game.
Speaker: um All right, so let's get to here. We are here to talk about Appalachian State and Texas State today. As Matt said, two of the teams that we expect, two of the three teams rather that I expect to be at the top of the Sunbelt standings once it's all said and done at the end of this year, along with Louisiana. um So let's get into it here. Let's start with App State.
Speaker: I think that they are not only a very good team, I think they are going to feast on a conference that has kind of taken a step back overall this season. um Now, I will say one thing I was surprised about, and and we'll talk more about this later ah next week when we talk about them, they have the same win total over under on DraftKings as James Madison does. And that kind of surprised me because of how many pieces that James Madison is having to replace and new coach, new quarterback, like all of that stuff. But both of their over unders were eight, according to DraftKings from what I could tell today, along with Texas State. I mean, I don't want to step on it, but Texas State and App State both over under was eight. So
Speaker: I, I would take the over. I mean, we can go ahead and like skip that, but I would take the over just based on the amount of talent they have. Zeke has made reference to this and I agree. I think a lot of the teams that have been good to competitive, really, really good, like Troy to competitive.
Speaker: um are going to take a step back and it's just kind of going to open up for app to say, all right, all we got to do is kind of make it through, you know, and we're probably going to be in the Sunbelt title game out of the East because the East is weakest of all. I mean, unless James Madison really makes that jump that the sports books are expecting. So what are you guys kind of overview before we jump into like position specifics? I mean, I think you're right. App state is ah The only team in the East that I think is staying even if not getting better from last year to this ah from a talent perspective from a just overall program situation point and again, not to step on the toes of us ah on our own toes, but Texas State is kind of similar where they're
Speaker: maybe the only team in the West that's in a as good, if not better position than they were last year. ah App has some really interesting pieces. I think offensively that ah took last year as, you know, first year in the offense or first year with a big role that I expect to flourish as true number ones in the running and passing or receiving games. um But I'm going to say what I've said about Sean Clark.
Speaker: um forever is that I have no faith in him to hold a lead. I have no faith in him to ah you know mount a comeback. I had a Twitter thread sometime last year where I figured out on average app is scoring 11 more points in one half than they are the the other. It doesn't matter first or second and that just means they're showing up for one half and not the other. um Whether it's the first or second it's a coin flip um And that's been App State's issue for the past several years. So even though even though they're the best team and I think i think they'll win the East,
Speaker: um i I do so cautiously because i with Sean Clark has proved that he can lose or at least keep bad teams in any game just because of his inability to maintain leads or ah you know start strong.
Speaker: Matt, I'll throw it to you on this, but i I disagree kind of with what Zeke is saying. I think last year kind of showed me that Clark was able to, and and we brought up this on the the Phil Steele interview episode, but last year sort of proved to me that he was finally able to kind of get his own guys in there and win with them rather than piggyback off the drink with Satterfield recruiting level.
Speaker: But I and just think everything lines up too perfectly for them. for Now I will say this, if something goes wrong, like for some reason they're not in the Sunbelt title game or they don't win over eight games, I think things could get ugly because expectations are as high as they probably have ever been for him at this point.
Speaker: but that i I'll address that when it happens, but I'm not going to project that as a certainty. But Matt, how do you feel about that? Well, I mean, look, you know, we're obviously we're talking about a program that has had tons of success and there's a there's a standard. There's an expectation, right? But but let's keep in mind that Sean Clark has won nine or more games. Three of the four years that he's been the head coach at Apple.
Speaker: like Like, let's not sit here and talk about this guy being... Let's not act like this guy's on the hot seat, right? This job is not in danger. like It's just not. AppState would have to go basically winless.
Speaker: for for Sean Clark to to get fired. um Look, I think after, you know, a down year in 22, where they went six and six, had some issues. um You know, you bring in Joey Aguilar last year, he breaks the some the single season program passing record that Chase Bryce had broken just a couple of years before. um You know, they win nine games and they play in the Sunbelt Championship game.
Speaker: I think now Aguilar has a season under his belt. He won newcomer of the year. I don't want to say he doesn't have anything to prove.
Speaker: But he doesn't have much to prove. Like App State knows what they're gonna get with this guy at quarterback, right? um You have a running back like a like Kanye Roberts. You have a receiving core like Christian Horne and Caden Robinson. And obviously we'll dive deeper into that you know as the episode goes on. um But look, App State's the favorite in the East. Some people have them as the favorite overall in the Sunbelt Conference. And I don't necessarily disagree with that. um I think on paper,
Speaker: They're the team to beat in the Sunbelt. They have some of the most continuity from a year before, especially key positions. Your coaching staff has been held together fairly well over the last couple of years. And App State knows how to win football games. Sean Clark is App State through and through. He knows what is expected. He knows what it takes to win there. And they're going to have no problems doing it in 2024.
Speaker: Now, I will say this, I don't necessarily agree with Zeke's point about Sean Clark, but I will say last year had a couple of losses that they had that were just kind of inexplicable, frankly. I mean, yeah you go back and you go back and look, I mean, they lost to Wyoming.
Speaker: Coastal Carolina, that game was, I mean, Choke City, like they, they were running away with it and their receiver fumbles and McCall takes Coastal back down the field and they kick a field goal with no time. You only beat Monroe by one. Yeah, that too. On a last minute field goal too. Yeah, so.
Speaker: That's the thing about Sean Clark is. He has the most loaded roster, I think top to bottom. I think Texas State who. I mean, I guess I'll go ahead and say this now, I think Texas State has the best offense, but I think if you look at a total roster from offense defense special teams, I think it's app. I mean, it's just like Texas State. um I'll get into my concerns with them in a little bit, but.
Speaker: There always is the chance that they lay just a stinker for like no reason. and And we've seen it happen a couple of years in a row now. Now, I agree with what you're saying. He's got a great resume. However, again, if you had a coach come in and was just gifted, like let's say last year's JMU team stayed together.
Speaker: Let's say Bob Chesney comes in, all of a sudden he's got Jordan McCloud. He's got all these defensive ends. He's got all these pass rushers. Yeah. He's probably going to win 10 games too. I mean, if you just gift wrap a coach easily the best roster in the conference, you should win, you know, the.
Speaker: the East Division or the conference as a whole or whatever. So he's kind of played to I guess apps expectations and then 22 happens and we talked about you know that going back a couple years and then last year kind of like I said finally cemented for me that Sean Clark could not only recruit well and develop those guys but he could win with his own set of players. So you, Matt, you already talked about Joey Aguilar. I think he's the second best quarterback in the Sunbelt. I mean, you know, I think McCloud still won until he gets dethroned. I mean, he was the Sunbelt Player of the Year.
Speaker: um But that is going to be a huge advantage. And we talked about it last year. How bad do you have to feel if you're a Ryan Berger who was going into last year hurts his finger gets we talked about it, Wally pipped and just doesn't have a starting job anymore with this great, great roster. I mean, it's it's tough. So Aguilar played great coming in. Unlike a lot of episodes that we've done, I don't really have it. I mean, he's established at this point. Like I don't really have any concerns with him.
Speaker: So do you guys have anything else to say about him? I mean, we can move on to the running game. Kanye Roberts, Matt, go ahead. Really quickly, I just want to throw out the Ryan Berger is now at Liberty. ah Just for what it's worth, he's no longer with App State. um But you know who is? You know who Joey Aguilar's backup quarterback is? Yeah, I do. Billy Wild. Billy Wild, baby. Dang it. yeah The man found a way to stay in the fun belt. Billy freaking Wiles. You know what? Not only did he find a way to stay in the fun belt, he so he found a way to wear the same color scheme, color which is impressive. He needs no new gear.
Speaker: No, they're like, well, actually, wait're ready yeah they were Nike and Southern Miss. We're going to issue you some gold socks. No need. Got it covered. Don't worry about it. I'll just go inside out so you can be this s logo. Now, I will say this. And Zeke will undoubtedly agree with me. If Aguilar gets hurt, they are screwed because Billy Wiles would not do anything for Southern Miss. I'll tell you, I was awful.
Speaker: Obviously, Billy Wiles, not a good quarterback, um but this transitions really well into the run game that App State has boasted so proudly over the past several years. um Up until last season, they had 10 consecutive years with a thousand -yard rusher. um Last year went a bit more to a split backfield between Nate Noel and Kanye Roberts. Roberts, who's still with the team, ah was exceptional last season. And I expect, um much like Billy Wiles had Frank Gore to to rely on, i he'll he'll have the running back stable that has become the
Speaker: ah defining feature of these app state teams over the past several years. Just an incredible running back one but then also a guy that behind him who can still run for 400 yards out of the two spot.
Speaker: Yeah, you know for sure. know you You bring up Kanye Roberts, and again, I agree with you, 6 .7 yards per carry in 2022, 5 .7 last year, just just a really effective and efficient running back. But like you mentioned, they're deep in that running back spot. You've got three guys behind Roberts that got significant carries last year.
Speaker: You got Castle, Heywood, and Imani Marshall. um I mean, look, Marshall only got 20 carries, but Castle had 53 and Heywood had 60. I mean, these guys have experience. So it's going to be really interesting to see how they share the wealth. Obviously Kanye Roberts is going to be number one, but then you've got a trio behind him that you if needed, you can go to them too and feel pretty confident that they can make something happen for you.
Speaker: For sure. um Running the football has never has never come to has never been difficult for AppState. I mean, that is that has sort of been their their bread and butter going back to, you know, I can't even name how many good running backs, great running backs they've had.
Speaker: um Kind of transitioning into the past game a little bit more, I mean, we talked about Joey Aguilar, you know, we we can't say enough good things enough good things about him. Came in as a juko, wasn't even expected to start, only got thrust into the starting lineup due to injury and then just crushed it. um Now, I will say I'm really impressed by the size of their starting receiving core. You know, usually when you look and and you see like, who's going to play the slot? Oh, it's going to be some guy who's 5 '9", 5 '10". Their three starting receivers, according to Phil Steel's magazine, are 6 '4", 6 '2", and 6 '2".
Speaker: go up and get it. So all he's got to do is kind of put it in. And that's not even mentioning Eli Wilson, you know, who was second team Sunbelt last year. So I'm just saying like, he's got a plethora of of passing options. um They've kind of always, well, not always, but going back a couple years now, they've more been
Speaker: spread out as far as the passing attack goes. they They don't funnel you know all of their targets to kind of one or two guys. um But I will say the running game kind of subsidizes that where you don't really have to worry about you know and the defense too but you don't have to worry about the passing game being as prolific as a Texas State or one of these Arkansas State or one of those teams because the running game is just so Immaculate that you're just sort of like ah we can kind of do whatever the defense whatever the defense wants to give us will take it so Sure. Yeah. Do you guys have anything to add on on kind of the receiving core? I mean, I know we're kind of just gushing but I mean it is, you know, they're the favorites for a reason
Speaker: It deserved to be gush gushed about. They're returning their four leading receivers, bring back their highest receiving tight end from last year. I mean, there's five guys on this roster who are going to rack up 350, 400 yards at least. And then you have, like, Kaden Ronson, who's probably going to be the top guy. He'll get 700. Like, if if they want to funnel to him, like you mentioned, he could get 1100 yards, um but he doesn't need to, as you just said, because of the strong run game. This offensive group as a whole, as um as we led with at the top, continuity, that a lot of other belt teams are lacking right now. um And, you know, we are we are gushing because they were wrong last season, and presumably only stronger this year.
Speaker: So one area they don't have a lot of starting returning production on the offensive side is the line. ah They only have one returning offensive lineman from last year, but I will say, and and I haven't given other teams the benefit of the doubt on this when we've been doing the previews, but I'm going to give it to app. Sean Clark comes from an offensive line coach background. So if there is one unit I feel good about,
Speaker: him developing you know a new group it would be that if they had a new set of receivers that were all brand new and you know the only time they had spent together was in the spring that would be a little bit concerning but the offensive line i mean like like i said that's his background that that's his bread and butter so there shouldn't be any issues there even though you've got you know Thornton Gentry is the only returner ah from last year at the the right guard spot, um although he played left tackle in nine games last year. um but But yeah, i mean you know I think they'll be OK on the line, regardless of having four new faces up there. ah Matt, how do you feel about kind of the offensive line as a whole?
Speaker: I agree with Phil Steele when he says they're going to be the surprise unit of the team. um And here's the thing. Look, they only return one starter. And I agree that that's a problem. ah But look, you know, Caden sweats a red shirt freshman coming off of a red shirt. He's got a year of experience under his belt, obviously.
Speaker: playing and being on the sideline two totally different things but he knows the program he knows the playbook you know that that experience certainly helps but here's here's the biggest thing with this app state off offensive line for me they lost a teammate last year jack harper or jack murphy excuse me uh passed away very tragically during the off season um and so you know it's that whole playing for something bigger mentality right That's going to motivate this group all season long. um It's going to motivate Sean Clark in this ah offense as well.
Speaker: And I think that that, you know, really turning ah that whole, you know, turning a negative into a positive, I really think that that's going to benefit App State this year, um having that extra motivation ah to play for their teammate. And so I think that this group is going to be really strong top to bottom. um And like we said earlier, App State's had no issues running the football over the years, and that's definitely going to start with their front five.
Speaker: So all in all, five returners on offense, six returning starters on the defensive side of the ball. I want to start up front because they had sort of a unique problem that a lot of these other teams did not last year, which was great rushing the passer as a unit, 35 sacks as a team. However, on the flip side, they gave up an average of 178 rushing yards per game. And then I think I'd have to go back and find it. But I think Phil Steele said they gave up four
Speaker: 200 yard rushing games last year, I believe. I'll go back through and try to find it the exact number five. So I mean, that's that's pretty nuts for a unit that you would think like, oh, if they can get to the quarterback, clearly run it, you know, teams running the ball isn't going to be an issue. It was. And so that's going to be something you know to kind of track and see, hey, have they made strides in the fitting run fits, clear you know clearing gaps, getting getting offensive linemen out of the way, because they really did struggle with it last year. So that's sort of my question. One person, you know they they run this three forefront. One person I wanted to single out
Speaker: Um, Sean Collins is back on the defensive line, uh, along, well, along with Marcus Clark at nose tackle, those guys are going to have to kind of be the anchors up front because they really did struggle stopping other teams from running the football last year. And it, it showed, I mean, they lost five games in a season where they probably should have lost two, three, maybe.
Speaker: and And it could have went the opposite way too. I mean, we talked about the ULM game. They could have been an eight and 14, you know, rather than a nine and three one. So, you know, that's that's sort of the thing that gives me a little bit of pause that I don't know how much better that's going to be or if they will take a stride in that area. you Could you imagine being an eight and 14 or the loss to ULM?
Speaker: like like let's just yikes that's rough but anyways so Talking about this front three look, it's very experienced. We talked about Sean Collins, how good he is. Marcus Clark, you know, really strong year last year up the middle as well. Santana Hopper is a guy that comes back seven and a half tackles for loss last year. I think the biggest thing is, you know, can you stop the run? Like we talked about you had five games where you gave up 200 or more rushing yards.
Speaker: you you gotta to you you got to find a way to get that under control. Granted, I know that at least one of them was against Tomani Vidal in the Sunbelt Conference championship game, and we know how good he is.
Speaker: um So, you know, can they improve that area? Look, I think the experience plays big factors because you mean when you look at these three guys, I know you lost one starter in Dingle Prince, but I mean, Sean Clark was a sophomore last year. Marcus Clark was a sophomore last year. ah Sean Collins, acc excuse me, was ah was a sophomore last year. And then Santana Hopper was only a freshman.
Speaker: like these guys were young a year ago so you know does that extra year of experience and maybe getting beaten up a little bit last year giving up 200 yards or more five times maybe you know want to make you get better this past offseason and be better in 2024 probably uh so look uh like Phil still said i'm I'm expecting big things from this App State defensive line. He has them rated as one of the best defensive lines in the Sun Belt and we'll see if they can live up to that.
Speaker: I will say this. Could you imagine, Matt, you mentioned potentially losing to ULM. Could you imagine saying, Hey, last season we took the number three pick in the drafts team down to the wire and lost by six, but we also lost to ULM. Could you imagine saying that? but That's the shock. This is my whole point about it.
Speaker: um I mean, he's going to he's going to Matt slowly dying over there. ah He he's going to win some games very impressively, and then you're going to have a couple each season, whether their wins or losses, he's going to play. They're going to play down to some teams that they have no business playing down to. And that's just sort of like you said, the experience. And I think that's what has a lot of um fans of the Mountaineers kind of pulling their hair out each season. I mean, I'll say this, I think I said this on the episode where we recapped it last season. the The game where they lost to Wyoming, you know they were, let's see, two and two after that game.
Speaker: I went on twitter x whatever the platform is called and app state fans wanted him gone after 4 games because of what happened in 22 going 6 and 6 missing a bowl game because they had to play 2 fcs teams And then coming in the next season and being two and two, ah you know, losing to Wyoming, North Carolina is fine. That's a fine loss, like what, you know, whatever. But people were pulling their hair out because they're like, why are we losing this game that we dominated every facet of? i You have twenty seven seven. Yeah. I was talking about Wyoming, but yeah. ah They lost twenty to nineteen.
Speaker: um But okay, so let's let's transition kind of to the the linebacker core and they've kind of got a unique set up because of the three four they're leading pass rusher is going to be come from the linebacker spot. Bill Steele says he likes Nate Johnson to be.
Speaker: the leading or one of the leading pass rushers as far as sack production in the conference. um You know they've got a long history of having guys that come off that end and are just ready to get after the quarterback. So Nate Johnson came in as a freshman last year through freshman seven and a half sacks second team all sunbelt at the pass rusher spot
Speaker: I think it's just going to continue. I think the main, the only real concern I have about the defense is their ability to stop the run. And it, it did burn them, I think twice, two or three times of the five games that they gave up 200 yards on the ground last year, but it can rush the passer. There's no doubt about that. I mean, 35 sacks last year as a team.
Speaker: i i will point I think something crazy is ah about this team is they had 200 tackle guys last year, one of those being a linebacker. and you You just don't really see that. Most teams don't even crack one 100 tackle guy.
Speaker: which ah Again, some I've not hid that I think um tackles are a very circumstantial stat. are you you know It requires the ability to be in the right place at the right time.
Speaker: uh it gives me worry about the group overall ability tackling ability about this team uh i there's a chance i'm just pulling something out of a hat here and looking too far into this uh but from this line backing core that's what uh what worries me um nate johnson is going to be exceptional he was second team all sunbelt last year as a true freshman led the team in sax was seven and a half i It doesn't feel outlandish to predict he'll probably hit nine and a half ten this year That kid is a pass rushing freak. He's kind of slam. He's 230 and You know ah at that size definitely can't handle double teams if they come his way now that he's the identified threat, but I I think this line backing core has the athleticism or requisite to run like a 3 -4 type scheme um and kind of make up for any run stopping deficiencies that may be upfront just because these guys have another year and it's ah it's a very similar core.
Speaker: So i I don't know if they do run a multiple front or not. I think I made a little bit of a mistake when I said that they run a 3 -4. I think they run probably closer to like a 3 -3 -5, but I think Johnson drops down to be that extra fourth pass rusher. Now I will say I've watched 3 -3 -5 defenses in the past and they do have trouble stopping the run because you you only have you know six guys in the box it's like although the ah running back needs to do is break one tackle and everybody else is pretty much accounted for blocking wise so that that is sort of you get the push and pull of like a this is great but also sometimes we just don't have the bodies up front or like you said zeke you know nate johnson might be a prolific pass rusher might not be a good run
Speaker: Run defender. I mean, it's just sort of it is what it is. Like you said, he's six, he's six, five, two, thirty. He's definitely got the height, the length and all that stuff. But if, you know, let's let's use App State's own right tackle. Let's say Thomas Schrader at six, five, two, ninety five kicks out. I mean, yeah, he's getting around him with a speed move.
Speaker: But in ah on a running play, he's only got to block him for a couple seconds, and then the running back is already by him. So, I mean, unless you run a stretch play, like hand off right into him, it might be an issue. But I think they'll get it cleaned up. I think they'll be better. I think it could still be kind of, I don't want to say the Achilles heel, but it could be a weak point for them for sure. um Matt, do you have anything to kind of add on the ah but line backing core before we move to the secondary here?
Speaker: Just that I'm a really big fan of Nate Johnson and Caden Sullivan. um nate Nate Johnson obviously he showed what he can do last year with seven and a half sacks second team all conference like you guys talked about. But look Caden Sullivan is a guy to watch too. Started 11 games a year ago, 64 tackles, ah just a really strong weak side linebacker.
Speaker: um So, you know, we'll see how he does with another year of experience under his belt. But that core right there of Nate Johnson, Caden Sullivan should be a ah should be a really strong unit for App State this year. Yeah. And then I think the secondary is going to be the strength of the defense overall outside of Nate Johnson. Last year they only allowed opponents to throw for an average of 200 yards per game, which has got to be pretty low up there. I mean, don I don't know. I'm sure James Madison was probably in that ballpark. But again, 35 sacks, so they were rushing the passer no matter what, and the secondary benefited from that. ah Ethan Johnson is is a guy that I'd like to call out. 511 -195. Last year, 56 tackles, 11 pass breakups was second team all Sunbelt.
Speaker: um I think that the df the DBs are going to keep on chugging. i don't I don't really see a reason for them to fall off. I added some P5 transfers. um They did lose Funderbert, Ross, Paul from the secondary. But they've been pretty good about just kind of plugging guys in and keeping a kind of machine running. And if they're still getting the same type of pass rushing production, I don't and don't really see a way that this comes back to bite them losing that production.
Speaker: it It comes down to the pass rush and then I think it comes down to Avarian Cole. I think he's the make or break of this defense just because as we talked about the the concerns we have in the past are in the run stopping. Avarian Cole, he's a safety. Phil Steele has him listed as like the Nickelback.
Speaker: Uh, inside the box safety for them. Uh, I mean, it's just, he's going to be the the last guy in the box and it's whether or not he can contribute in that role. Um, he, again, he's a little undersized, I guess, for a, for a box safety at six foot one 90. I would like that.
Speaker: closer to 200, but again, we're just kind of splitting hairs there. It comes from Carolina A &T, so there's not a ton of top -level production to look to. ah In the secondary, I think it they're going to benefit from the incredible, incredible pass rush. um And I don't think Avarian Cole will be the best player on the defensive secondary, but I think he will be the most critical to their success.
Speaker: Yeah, I really like what I've seen and heard about Avarian Cole brought up Ethan Johnson. I mean his his numbers speak for themselves. um Another guy that I'm really going to be watching is Miles Farmer. ah The free safety spent three years at Nebraska and then spent last season at Syracuse. I mean his entire career has been P5 experience or I guess P4 now.
Speaker: um So you know what is what does that look like when he comes into Abstate as the free safety spot? you know Can he bring that high level of experience, high level of leadership ah to this defense? um But yeah, I agree with you, Brian. I think this is going to be the the strength of maybe the entire team, but for sure the de defense. Ton of experience, ton of talent, ah really excited to see what they can do.
Speaker: So one thing I forgot to mention when we were talking about the offense, and we'll we'll go ahead and start talking about schedule and and wins and stuff here. um Phil Steel's computer algorithm model, whatever you want to call it, ah does have them taking a Yeah, the Matrix. He's he's Neo and they're ah fighting the Smiths trying to figure out how many points per game ah App's going to average in offense. He does have them projected to take a slight downturn from their past couple years in offensive points per game. We'll see if that happens because he says that the schedule is tougher than what they played last year. um But he has them at
Speaker: 31 .9 points per game. So who knows? I mean, they don't and't play UL in this year, but that could be the difference between winning that game, that type of game, or losing that type of game. ah So let's get into the schedule. They do have... I think they have three teams that they are really going to have to bring their A game to beat. And those teams to me are Clemson,
Speaker: Liberty and I think Louisiana. And I think if they don't bring their A game to those, you know, three games, Clint, they're probably not going to be Clemson. Let's be honest. I think Clemson draws UGA week one. So they're probably going to lose to the Bulldogs and then be pissed off and take it out on app. Let's be honest. um So you got that going against you already coming off of an FCS game against East Tennessee State Liberty.
Speaker: Chadwell has given them issues when he had some of his later teams at Coastal, not in the earlier stages when he was, you know, trying to piece together what was it, Joe Mowgli's, you know, leftovers. Once he got kind of his guys in and the Grayson McCall experience, I mean, he was a lot better against App. He's got a really good team at Liberty with, was it Caden Salter, their quarterback? Ryan Bergen now.
Speaker: Well, but know he's still Salter. Yeah, it's still Salter. right What if it was Ryan Burger revenge week and it was like... That's what I'm rooting for. We're letting Salter take the take the week off. ah he's got tweet all He's got a shoulder thing.
Speaker: uh but yeah that that would be very that would be a very funny narrative uh if that happened but yeah i mean clemson you're probably not going to be clemson they're going to be pissed off after losing the presumably georgia week one liberty uh and then at louisiana october 12th i could see that really being a problem for them um You know, we've we've talked, Matt, you know better than anybody, the struggles that apps kind of had against Louisiana, especially in like big game situations. I don't know that they'll necessarily need to win that game to make the East title ah appearance, but it's it's the third third loss that I could consider like something they need to work out. That's kind of what I was going to start my side of the schedule conversation with. Does nine and three win you the East? Yeah, probably.
Speaker: then it depends. on their goal It truly, it truly depends on what kind of team James Madison actually feels this year. Honestly, like I, I need to personally see it with a whole new roster, new coach, everything. I need to see it before I can say, Hey, you know, they're up for as many wins as app or Texas state.
Speaker: How would I discern that without seeing them play as a unit? so but i know now that That is a potential loss, I will say. but We talk about the Liberty game, and as much as I agree that Liberty is a really good team, but let's look at it from this perspective. So at play is South Alabama on a Thursday night. we We can all agree that South Alabama is probably going to take a step back.
Speaker: under new coach Major Applewhite. So, AppState's probably gonna win that game. I know some crazy things can happen in the fun belt, but AppState's probably gonna win that game. So they get nine days off between games. You don't have to travel, and AppState has to come, I mean Liberty has to come to you, to The Rock, a place where crazy things have happened.
Speaker: No, I'm not saying that, you know, Liberty is going to be this crazy, you know, 14 point favorite on the road against app. But app state could win that game at home. Pretty easily, I would say. Liberty is a good team, but they are incredibly fraudulent. on So like we're we're actually, you know, you and I were talking about those those three games that they would have to bring their A game. Say app beats Liberty.
Speaker: Then you can have one of those traditional Sean Clark screw up games. but Against anybody you wish. yeah Because there's there's not a bad loss in conference at least. I mean, Marshall, you can chalk that up to be an arrival. Georgia State.
Speaker: That would be a bad loss. That's a bad loss. Old Dominion is a bad loss. I think James Madison and Georgia Southern could both be could could feasibly be losses. I think like Southern could just hang 50 and they can't keep up. And then James Madison, it depends on what James Madison looks like.
Speaker: i I think you're right. There are three like major games on the schedule, but we're discounting what Matt just talked about. How many Sean Clark losses are we going to see? like I think he's good for two extra losses, and ah that might still be good enough to win the East, especially if some of those losses are coming to Liberty and Clemson out of conference.
Speaker: Um, but this whole team revolves around how many Sean Clark losses are we going to get? How many, you know, games are we going to start down? Oh, 21 or how many 21 leads are we going to blow? Is the roof through line for this team? It's very crazy thing. Looking at their schedule for me is they could be 11 and one or eight and four, and I wouldn't blink either way.
Speaker: Like if they if they lost all three of those and then found a way to trip up, I don't know, again, at Coastal on November 7th on a Thursday, I would be like, yeah, that sounds about right. Yeah. Like it and it sucks to say for the I mean, for them, but like, you know, you always run that risk of, you know, what we've been talking about where, oh, Wyoming's going to be a free free square in Bingo. They're just going to be an easy. Nope.
Speaker: But why couldn't it be Wyoming when we had the advantage in every facet of the game? Don't know. Still went to the East title, ah still represented the East in the title game. So you always run that risk. I will say.
Speaker: If I had to bet over under, I'd say over. There's a, like I said, there's a chance you, you push on that and and you win exactly eight. I think they would probably win the bowl game, presumably depending on who it would be against. And that would, that would put you over the hump. But yeah, I mean, I, I just.
Speaker: I think they there's a lot a wide range of outcomes. I don't think a lot of them, unless they have like a crappy out of nowhere, South Alabama, 2023 season. I just don't think that's necessarily in the cards for them.
Speaker: um All right, so that's that's app state. We have them as the overwhelming favorite in the east. I mean, they have to be, you know, the favorites to represent the east in the Sunbelt title game. Let's turn the page and move to the west side. ah Texas State.
Speaker: Now, I want to say this, but we have mentioned this on previous episodes, but just in case that people didn't listen to like the draft episode that we did with the prospects or the Phil Steel one, let's just put in context how lucky they were to get the Sunbelt Player of the Year. So first, there's this weird rift that showed up kind of at the end of last year with TJ Finley and GJ Kinney. There were games where they were taking Finley out at halftime even though he wasn't necessarily playing that poorly. They got blown out by Arkansas State for seemingly no reason, just kind of threw up their hands. There were weird things happening at the end of last season's schedule. They bring in
Speaker: a transfer in Jayden Delora, who joins the team, Finley, because of this, and feels feels like, hey, my job's not secure for whatever reason. He exits. Jayden Delora, I think, leaves before spring practice even starts. And I think he entered himself into the NFL draft or the supplemental draft, one of those two. He doesn't get drafted. He's in like the XFL or UFL or whatever they call it last time I looked for the San Antonio team.
Speaker: Then you just have the sun raining sunbelt player of the year and Jordan McLeod fall right into your lap while he's looking for a new home. You know, with Bob Chesney and all of this roster turnover and James Madison starting to kind of reformulate from where they were last year.
Speaker: And guess what? You not only got lucky, you upgraded at the quarterback position. You went from probably the third or fourth best QB in the conference to the absolute best until otherwise shown. So it they truly could not have I don't know if G .J. Kenny sat on a rabbit's foot or like has a horseshoe somewhere that we don't know about. Like there is just this weird luck thing around them where even when they fail, they succeed. Like I don't really understand it. They're going to go to the college football playoffs. What? I fight i think they're the what is it, the fifth ranked ah conference champion.
Speaker: no no yeah so i don't think so that my saying There's a legendary program in the Pacific Northwest that everybody is sleeping on because they've been down for the last couple of years. But they've got a young quarterback by the name of Malachi Nelson.
Speaker: Do you think Boise? Oh yeah. Boys, it's not a state. It's certainly not Boise. Boise is making the playoff as the G5 rep. No, it's Texas State. I'll say it right now, Texas State is undefeated in Sunbelt play. OK, I wouldn't be shocked if it. Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if it was Liberty, honestly. Like and I don't I don't like fraudulent conference USA and say that they're they're not going to give conference USA the nod.
Speaker: If they're 12 -0 and they're winning every conference game by 104 points, I would, but they think about this, the committee knew so little that they kept Florida State out undefeated last year and let Alabama sneak in. Do you think they're really going to go through and dig and see who the absolute best G5 team is? No, they're going to look at wins and losses and go, wow, you know, this Liberty team, they won a lot, won by a lot every game this year. And that's as far as they're going to look into it. They're not going to go 11 and one, two at least.
Speaker: I don't know where you're getting this from, to be totally honest. All right. Let's get into it. I'll get into it. OK, so we talked about McLeod. I mean, reigning Sunbelt player of the year, you know, 35 touchdowns completed 68 percent of his passes. First team Sunbelt, obviously, ah you know, 3600 plus a yards. Well, there's not really anything else to say. they Like I said, they they got lucky falling. You know, he fell right into their lap. I don't know if it was a Grace and McCall type situation where he couldn't make grades or something anywhere else. But like, there's no reason he should still be playing at the P5 or G5 level. He should be a P5 quarterback. so If Grace and McCall could start at NC State, Jordan McLeod, who played better than him, should be at a at an equal or better school at this point. Does Ana already have a quarterback? Is that why he didn't follow?
Speaker: See that's, that's the thing is that would be the natural progression and it just never, that never came to fruition. I felt like it felt like it was weird. Like he put himself out there and was on social media and was saying, you know, I'm in the portal. I'm taking visits, taking offers, blah, blah, blah. And it just felt like none of that ever came together the same way that it happened with Grayson McCall the year before.
Speaker: where Chadwell leaves. So like, I don't really understand what happened. I'm sure there's some behind the scenes stuff with that, but ah he should be playing at a higher level. He's good enough easily to be playing it.
Speaker: North Carolina or or whatever, you know what ah what have South Carolina, like wherever. like that I guarantee you there aren't however many, let's see let's say there's 12 teams in each, the ACC and SEC, there's no way there's 24 quarterbacks better than him. There's just no way. So it it almost feels a little unfair, but with that said,
Speaker: The offense for me, Zeke, and I'll get into the reasons, I already talked about, they're gonna be the most talented offense, I think, top to bottom in the Sun Belt. My concern is with their defense, and we'll we'll talk about that in a minute. um Ismail Mahdi at the running back spot, second team All -American last year, 1 ,300 yards and 10 starts, six yards a carry. They're not gonna have any issues running the football with him or McLeod scrambling. So,
Speaker: Well, okay, Zeke, let you talk about it. You penciled them in for the college football playoff. Let's talk about it. Why? so i Why? thing but so best I think from we'll start offense first, right? You're right. Best P5 quarterback in the country in Jordan McLeod. It's my own body. Second team, not second team Sunbelt last year, second team All -American.
Speaker: You return Hobart, who was an exceptional receiver for you last season. You return Cole Wilson, who was an exceptional receiver for you last year. Those are two guys that had 700 yards. Hobart was approaching 900.
Speaker: Offensive line exceptional last year almost all the guys back only replacing your center a guy who played some so ah Made some appearances at gourd for Texas State last season offense as you said will be by far the best in the conference and If not one of the single best in p5 p6, whatever we're calling g5 g5. Sorry. Thank you um you move over the defense I hear what you're saying ah but this defense was also exceptional last year they don't lose any pieces the guys are young a lot of these guys were juniors last season so they're seniors now I i just I cannot point to any point on this roster and this is what I've done every
Speaker: ho My role in each of our preview seasons has been to point out something nitpicky that I don't like, and that's why I don't like that team. I cannot find that for this Texas team. I just ran through. They have every position covered all offensively. Defensively, they were exceptional last year, and they have it's the same group. I don't know how you can see last year's Texas State team perform so well. Look around the Sun Belt and not prick
Speaker: dick this team goes undefeated in the Sun Belt. So um I'm going to make two disagreements with you about Texas State's defense. Yes, they return a large portion of their defense. But they did lose their best defensive player from last year and Brian Holloway. Yeah. Which is a huge blow. We're talking about a guy that had 100 plus tackles last year.
Speaker: I got yours. Well, you know, my stance on tackles. I don't care. ah Um, and and but i on top of that, on top that I don't know in what world giving up 33 points a game is a quote, phenomenal defense.
Speaker: They gave up 33 points a game. That's inflated by the 77 to Arkansas on the 44 to South Al. and And I'm not excusing those performances. Those were abysmal performances. But take those out, and you were looking at, it again, like a top half defense in this conference. The 77 to Arkansas State, as Brian said at the top, this team, kind of like how Southern, how Brian talks about Southern, a team that just like doesn't have the guts sometimes, ah over those last two games showed flashes of that.
Speaker: ah Take out the 77 and 44 that that's a hundred. That's five games worth of points ah They they this was a very slow defense last year You also lost to a Grayson McCallis Coastal Carolina Who we've said on this pod was better with Grayson without Grayson Michael them. I disagree wholeheartedly I disagreed with that wholeheartedly they were performing as well as not better And then you only beat ULM by one
Speaker: You only beat ULM by one. I agree, but so did AppState, and we had nothing but good things to say about AppState. And then and then here is here is the other caveat, and I'm going to diss my own team. who Louisiana should not have beaten Texas State last year. No. Should not have. No. So how did it happen? I'm not talking about last year, Matt.
Speaker: Because their defense choked away a 10 -point lead.
Speaker: Their defense choked away a 10 -point lead. A 10 -point lead is not choking away a lead. 10 -point lead is... 10 -point lead is four stops. You have a 10 -point lead going into the fourth quarter in a conference game. You should not lose.
Speaker: I mean, let's be totally honest. They had a couple of games. They had a couple of games there down the known to be losing. They just they dropped them for like no so seemingly no reason. I mean, yeah Arkansas State game notwithstanding to be to get beat 77 to 31 is flat embarrassing to do it. Arkansas State, a team that very notably we've talked about, doesn't have a defense.
Speaker: Like, they could they couldn't match go score for score with Arkansas State. Like, how that's pretty eye -popping. You lose to Troy, that happens. You know, whatever. Louisiana, Matt already talked about it. And then...
Speaker: You lose to Coastal without Grayson McCall, who we talked about last week, weirdly got better when McCall was out. I don't remember if it was Vasco or Guest that started that game, but they just had they just had some like inexplicable losses. And it makes me wonder if it was a TJ Finley thing or if it was a GJ Kinney over the whole team thing. And that's a question I think that we're going to get an answer to this year.
Speaker: Because if you can't make a push for the West with McLeod at QB, then it's just not gonna happen. So I think it's time to kind of put up or shut up. And it's tough to say that in a guy's year two at a school, but with with this offense that he has, like it's not gonna get better from here. It's only gonna get worse. So - Now shift your eyes. Again, we're kind of skipping the position by position breakdown. Shift your eyes to their schedule and tell me who beats them.
Speaker: especially within conference. I think Arizona State could end up being a loss ah just kind of depending on what Arizona State puts out this year. Tell me what Sunbelt team beats them. Not Troy, not Arkansas State. I think not old think Louisiana could beat them. Louisiana? Louisiana could. I think Louisiana could beat them. But they're playing texas at Texas State.
Speaker: Well, if history repeats itself, Arkansas State could hang 70 on him again. They could, they won't. And then you see, here's the biggest thing about the Louisiana. You would have said that last year, though. Here's the biggest thing about the Louisiana matchup. Texas State has never beaten the Cajuns. Never once.
Speaker: That means something. Texas State's also never gone 12 -0 and made the college football playoffs. They're not going to go 12 -0 this year either. They're not going to go 12 -0. I can already tell you that. I think they win at least and tight loose at best 13 -2. At best they're 10 -2. I think 10 -2 is the floor.
Speaker: that this is why they're gonna have to score 60 points a game to be that good I'd like to see are you on are you on drugs should we start drug testing you before each episode I have to score 60 a game to be that good all right let me be wrong ah
Speaker: Well, I I haven't looked at UTSA this year. UTSA has fielded some very talented teams. Now, I don't know what they I don't know what the outlook for them is. I don't know if they still have Frank Harris at quarterback. He could be if he's still there. He could be a real difference maker, but I have no no idea what they look like.
Speaker: um But like I said, you know, last year they had a really good team too, and they found a way to slide down the back stretch. It was like once they hit a couple losses. I mean, the to say the train went off the tracks would be putting it mildly. The train careened into a nuclear plant and exploded and set off an atom bomb.
Speaker: Like there's a difference between the train coming off the tracks is like ah we were supposed to make the title game. We we lost by a week. You know, we we dropped a game we shouldn't have. This is this was catastrophe at the end of last season for them.
Speaker: um
Speaker: How I'm sorry, I dipped out for a minute like computer issues. How much did you guys talk about the defense? Because that's what I want to talk about. I'm talking about, I hit on the fact that they gave up 33 points a game. They gave up 246 yards passing per week. What do we think that teams in the Sunbelt like to do? Throw the football generally. A lot of these teams are not. They also gave 150 a week on the ground. Right. So.
Speaker: I guess my question, Zeke, since you're you are the most bullish on them of the three of us easily. I mean, we're we're kind of trying to tamp this down a little bit. How much of a jump do you see them making defensively? Do you see them turning into I think so we middle of the pack defense? So when you.
Speaker: When you drive, or Matt had mentioned the, was it 38 per game, 36 per game allowed. And it, like your yardage concerns are related by Arkansas hanging 77 on them. They're inflated by 44 from South Owl. That's not to discredit, that that's not to discredit those games and say they didn't happen and they're not worth examining.
Speaker: But I'm of the opinion that's not this team. I mean, how about giving up 36 to Southern Miss? Like, you know, how about giving up 34 to Jackson State? Like, yeah, you scored 77, but you basically just flipped the score from the Arkansas State game.
Speaker: There's so many games I could point to that would just pop your balloon as far as that goes. I mean, okay. Again, Southern Miss, you allowed 510 yards of offense in that game. Jackson State, they gave up 400 yards to an FCS school. Like, they gave up 524 to Baylor.
Speaker: The core of this defense is the same. ah They do lose their best defensive player ah from a statistical and talent perspective. um But what, they're returning like eight starters? Half of who were juniors last year? did Yeah. Is that a good thing? it This is, Matt, can we have a like a sidebar for two seconds? Matt, what is up with this guy?
Speaker: Like, what is up with him? He's like, he's like, Mr. Rain on my parade for all these other teams that we project to be pretty good. And then he's like, Texas State is gonna be the best team since the 01 Miami Hurricanes. And you're just like, okay. Can we turn on Zeke's location sharing and see how many trips to San Marcos he takes this season? i think I think he might be in with them.
Speaker: oh look look do Do I think the Texas State is going to be bad? No. God no. There's no chance in hell the Texas State is going to be a bad football team. Are they going to run the table and be in the first ever edition of the 12 -team college football playoff? Also hell no. You're not.
Speaker: Right, so the other thing too that Zeke kind of... I guess either discounted or forgot about was that would also mean that they have to beat App for the Sunbelt title. Do you think they're a better team than App as they sit today? I i i think...
Speaker: I think they but see this. is This is what he didn't consider. Yeah. I don't know if he was just like regular season. No, I I so I think app is better team, but I think they beat app. That's that's my question.
Speaker: I mean, based on what is it? What I suppose based on vibes, but the what is what is the counter argument based on if not vibes? The counter argument is they can't stop anybody. Because right now, before the season, all we have to go off of so is on paper. And we just sat here and said that on paper app states and the better team. So on paper, what are you saying Texas State beats app?
Speaker: And keep in mind, like 30 minutes ago, he agreed with that. Like I'm not, I'm not trying to excuse my French here, but I'm not, I'm not trying to shit on your argument because I don't necessarily disagree with it. I just want to know. Like based on what do you think?
Speaker: Texas State beats out. Go back to what I do. I use the same thing. It's one of those gut calls. I think Texas State, there's no disagreement that Texas State is the best team in the West. There's no disagreement that they are, at worst, the third best team in the conference, right? And you could, like, depending on how Coastal or JMU or Troy show up, could possibly be the second best, right? But their, at worst, Texas State is third.
Speaker: I adored what I saw out of Texas State. Upon reflection of last season, I thought it was an exceptional year. And Brian, you're cringing. I don't see - No, I'm not cringing. I think it's hilarious because you you took a giant dump all over Arkansas State and said, sorry, I'm tired of hearing about it every year. And then was like, yeah, they lost my to him by 43, who cares, vibes.
Speaker: Look, i i i but I stand by what I say about texas state or Arkansas State, and I stand by what I'm saying now. You know what, Matt? You know what I'm gonna start doing? Forget the gambling, like, betting ah notebook like spreadsheet. I'm just gonna start writing down all of Zeke's tapes, and then when he contradicts them, I'm gonna read them back to him.
Speaker: Please do. Please do, because I forget. That's my idea. If I'm contradicting myself, let me know. But ah I feel like I stand solid on this, that I don't think Arkansas State's good. I mean, Brian, you and I have been podcasting for three years. I've never thought they were good.
Speaker: Well, that that that's what I mean, though, is you're basically like saying, OK, I don't believe in Arkansas State. I don't believe in butch Jones. I think it's all a smokescreen. I think they've been pumped up way too much. And then I'm like, here's the evidence that says like that counters your exact argument about Texas State. And like, this is their defenses, issues, all this stuff. And you're like, disregard it.
Speaker: I choose to disregard it. and It's like, so okay. Also to to counteract that or to go along with that, should I say, you don't believe in Arkansas state, which is fine. That that's your, that's your prerogative, right? They weren't good. They had one good year that people might think is a fluke, right? Like all that, I get that. Can't you say the same thing about Texas state?
Speaker: No, because they're they've had the one good year, but the one good year came under the new regime. This was unprecedented improvement that we saw from Texas State from 2022 to 2023. It was beyond what any of us expected. And it's it feels crazy to me to not at least be open to the possibility of a similar of progression.
Speaker: matt i actually kind of agree with him on that i think even through one year g j kinney is ah proven more than butch jones has in or three four years or whatever so far i all i'm saying is We talked about all the production Arkansas State brings back and Zeke on that episode was like, I'm tired of it. Don't want to hear about it. And then it was like, OK, well, what about last year when they when they lost, you know, when they beat in Texas State by 40? And he's like, yeah, don't worry about it. I mean, what I think you I'm not disagreeing again. I don't want to say that that game didn't happen because it did. um But
Speaker: you would be disingenuine to tell me that that is the standard or the like average level of play for either of those teams.
Speaker: And so use that as a prolonger is ah disingenuous. i Okay, I want to pivot because we've been we've been going way too hard on on this one take, but um but I want to say this, who's to say, because we only have one year of sample, who's to say GJ Kenny isn't just Sean Clark out in the West and have these issues where, whoop -de -doo, all of a sudden, one week, guess what? We're giving up 77 for seemingly no reason. You know? Find out. Or we're playing an Ollie. We're playing, you know, we're playing a bad
Speaker: you know, ULM team down to the wire. We're, you know, giving up 34 to an FCS HBCU team for seemingly no reason. Okay, anyway, so I will say this, ah Phil Steel does project them defensively to take a step forward. Again, personally, I need to see it before I, i can it's the same thing with Arkansas State. Like I can't just say, I can't wave my hand and go,
Speaker: You haven't seen anything here. like the These aren't the droids you're looking for. like you know they're they're gonna They're gonna be way better and I have nothing to base this off, but just the air around the team. He does project them to take a step forward and only allow 27 .2 points per game ah this year. Another thing I wanted to say, I forgot to mention this when we were talking about McCloud.
Speaker: I think this is going to be interesting for McLeod in that there were a lot of games last year when he was at JMU that he could kind of just take his foot off the gas and be like, my defense is going to handle this. So now what what does it look like when you're playing in a more up -tempo offense with a worse defense that's going to allow a lot more points?
Speaker: But you know, what does that sort of look like? That's interesting to me. I want to see how that all shakes out. um Ben Bell is back on the defensive line for the Bobcats. He was second team Sunbelt last year.
Speaker: But I mean, I went through and looked, it's like linebacker and defensive back might be a real issue for them to get. Like I, I just don't, there's nothing that I can point to and be like, without a doubt, they are going to be better. I think it could be once again, just shoot out city in San Marcos. Now they have a way better quarterback. I think they could, they could make it work. I think they have, like I said, top to bottom, the best offense.
Speaker: But it's gonna be tough to win every game 52 to 41. Every week isn't just gonna be like, alright, we just checked this box, we're just gonna score 50 every week. like that That's really hard to bank on. So, I don't know. Do we have anything else on Texas State? or Zeke, do you have any more takes that we would like to fry up? um Okay. I think they go nine and three.
Speaker: Oh, that's right. I forgot about the schedule part. I think they go nine and three. I've got to lose into UTSA. I've got to lose into Arizona State and I've got to lose in Louisiana.
Speaker: I think that's fine. um I think they're going to lose. I think they're going to they're going to go nine and three. um I don't know, man. For some reason, I look at the Arkansas State game on the schedule and that that game from last year is just etched into my brain. Like, I cannot, I can't drop it. I think that game, no matter what the over -under is, I think I'm gonna bet the over. Like, I don't even care with it. You can set the line right now. And I'll be like, yep, 100 points, sounds good. I'll take it.
Speaker: So I think that game is going to be one that comes down to the last possession. I think Louisiana is going to be a tough test for them. And I i think UTSA as well, and unless and unless UTSA just completely bottoms out, I think they're going to give them a game at the very least.
Speaker: but All three of those games that I just mentioned are all at home. And also, Arizona State don't really know what to expect from them. They were a train wreck ah under Herm Edwards, so I have no idea. That's all I'll say. Their over -under is eight. Would we all comfortably take the over -zeek? I know you're you've already got their their spot in the College Football Hall of Fame carved out, so we don't even need to ask you. ah Matt, you've got them for over eight, correct?
Speaker: Yeah. Yeah. OK. All right. Do we have anything else before we sign off here? ah If not, back go ahead and let everybody know where they can find your work, where they can find you and then Zeke, go ahead after him and then I'll close it out.
Speaker: I want whatever Zeke's on, but you can find me on social media at megasmat, also espn underscore SWLA. That is the day job covering the Louisiana Rage and Cajuns, LSU Tigers, New Orleans Saints, and so much more. So check us out there. I'm on Twitter at Zeke Palermo, Z -E -K -E -P -A -L -E -R -T.
Speaker: State fans, I expect to see a big influx of you and my following. Arkansas State fans, Southern Miss fans, I expect you to have already blocked me by now. Brian, send us home.
Speaker: As always, you can email the us ah or tweet at us. We'd love to you know read questions, comments, things like that. um You can find us at warmweatherfans at gmail dot .com, at warmweatherfans on X. You can find me on X at WatchTheStone. We have been, we talked about this beforehand. we're We're looking into potentially adding video to kind of our repertoire.
Speaker: uh so to speak um so we're we're working on getting that maybe up and running by the time this actual season starts maybe a little bit later than that uh and i will be setting up the betting sheets in the next couple days and we'll have everybody's last season records so you can look back at that um and we will we will talk about those record our picks and and kind of have something to kind of back back up our uh quote unquote expertise ah But that's, we're we're second to last episode of Sunbelt previews. Next week is JMU and Troy, and then it's football season voice. It's time for actual games. So this has been another episode of Warm Other Fans to Sunbelt Podcast.
