IT Spending Rises but Channel Share Falls; AI Arms Race and Shrinking Jobs Impact MSPs by @Big Pond Podcasts

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IT spending continues to expand, with North America projected to lead a 12.6% increase to $2.6 trillion, primarily due to hyperscaler investments in AI infrastructure. However, the proportion of technology spending funneled through channel partners is declining, now at 61% compared to over 70% four years ago, according to a survey by Omnia. This shift signals that while the market is growing, traditional margin and resale opportunities for MSPs are narrowing as vendors redirect a larger share of revenue direct while still relying on partners for implementation, support, and customer operations.

Data from Salesforce underscores a near-universal trend toward partner involvement in sales, with 94% of surveyed global salespeople leveraging partners to close deals and 90% using tools to manage relationships. Despite this, Dave Sobel clarifies the distinction between involvement and compensation, highlighting that partner influence on deals does not guarantee economic participation at previous levels. These dynamics reinforce that MSPs must adapt to a reality where their role in the value chain is being separated into influence and execution, with the middle tier facing increasing pressure.

Additional analysis draws attention to labor market changes and technology commoditization. U.S. job openings have fallen to their lowest point in over five years, undermining MSP growth strategies dependent on seat expansion. Simultaneously, the AI market is fragmenting at the application layer—with Google's Gemini app, Grok, and OpenAI's ChatGPT shifting market shares rapidly—while hyperscalers like Alphabet (Google) commit unprecedented capital expenditures, fueling an infrastructure arms race even as front-end AI tools become more interchangeable.

The practical implication for MSPs and IT service providers is increased pressure to re-evaluate business models, operationalize AI offerings, and focus on defensible, productized services. Reliance on a single vendor or seat-based growth forecasts presents heightened risk. Successful adaptation will require a shift toward managed services around AI operations, governance, and productivity—emphasizing accountability, optionality, and measurable ROI—rather than assuming historic revenue models will persist.

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