SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer
Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evolved in ways that undermine its edge? From the seduction of short-term models to the unintended consequences of complexity, this conversation traces how well-meaning enhancements may be compounding the very problems they aim to solve. Layer in political volatility, crowded positioning, and allocator fatigue, and the path forward looks less like innovation and more like rediscovery. This episode isn’t a defense of recent results... it’s a clear-eyed look at what happens when a strategy built on discipline gets pulled off course, and what it takes to steer it back.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
03:20 - Reflecting on Apple and China's Tech Revolution
17:28 - Shifts in the Market Landscape: The Influence of Trump and AI
20:03 - The Dynamics of Negotiation in Real Estate
30:15 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Central Banks
39:26 - The Changing Dynamics of Market Trends
48:00 - Evaluating Investment Strategies and Performance
53:19 - Navigating Market Challenges and Expectations
01:08:34 - The Future of Investment Strategies
01:11:10 - Navigating Market Changes
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